Ceylon today, 2015-04-16
US checkmates China with Modi and Sirisena
The government has used the US to influence the UN to postpone the probe report's publication until September, a mere 150 days away. The report will be made public irrespective of whether the government initiates its own domestic probe on par with global standards which meet UN specifications. Despite all the ballyhoo, MR knows that the west and Sirisena and company will in the final essay allow the UN to throw the BOOK at MR come September. Besides the anti-west foreign policy issue that created the conditions for the birth of the MS faction and MR's ouster from power, MR's survival, as he see it, leaves him no option but to wrest power by hook or by crook to be in power again as the ONLY OPTION available to him to ensure that he can call the cards when the UN report is made public. In MR's mind, he will concede that Sirisena is unlikely to anger the electorate by throwing him to the wolves. It could ricochet badly on him at election time.
The government has used the US to influence the UN to postpone the probe report's publication until September, a mere 150 days away. The report will be made public irrespective of whether the government initiates its own domestic probe on par with global standards which meet UN specifications. Despite all the ballyhoo, MR knows that the west and Sirisena and company will in the final essay allow the UN to throw the book at MR come September. Besides the anti-west foreign policy issue that created the conditions for the birth of the MS faction and MR's ouster from power, MR's survival, as he see it, leaves him no option but to wrest power by hook or by crook to be in power again as the only option available to him to ensure that he can call the cards when the UN report is made public. In MR's mind, he will concede that Sirisena is unlikely to anger the electorate by throwing him to the wolves. It could ricochet badly on him at election time.
MS persuaded the US to get the report postponed for no other reason than this. All he has to do to signal the UN to publish the report is to have Mangala Samaraweera take a call to the US. I am not brave enough to hazard a guess as to whether or not he can DEAL with the social pejoration it will generate. It can undo the steady inroads he is making into the hearts of the electorate that he is carefully cultivating.
There are unspoken fears known to Sirisena and Ranil who naturally would not want negative and highly disturbing details coming out in a UN probe. This is one of the main undercurrents inexorably pushing MR to make a bid for power again and equally powerfully pushing Sirisena to delay the probe report because it would lead to a huge groundswell of sympathy for MR that could translate into a massive vote for him as Premier in the general election. On the flip side, properly handled, the release of the report could be so manipulated. And timed that it could cast MR in very bad light and swing voter fervour against MR. Sirisena could be playing for time for that purpose and till then hold the domestic probe in abeyance. All I'm saying is that these are the factors which impact on the motives which drive MR, MS and Ranil to seek power at the coming general elections. The US and India would not want the report out for the same reason, while China will not trust Sirisena either way. All else in between with Sirisena will be aimed at gauging out how deep his link with the west goes before they make a decisive policy decision about him.
UN probe report
These facets in the background are what drive MR to want power again so that he has control if and when the UN probe report is released. It's imperative and that is why he has mounted a strong bid to return to power. He simply can't have CBK-Ranil-Sirisena handling a probe any less than he can afford to have the UN throw a probe report in his face. MR knows he now has to come out as a candidate of a new party and a coalition led by him. That's why I said the battle lines are drawn. They were drawn before the UPFA's 'MR FOR PM' demand was launched.
The Congress led administration's approach, that had none of Modi's stance, was seen by the west to be weak in the face of a China that was swiftly consolidating its hold in the Indian Ocean region via its ever increasing footprints all over Sri Lanka and more ominously, offshore too and in the Maldives. Under MR Sri Lanka was quickly becoming a Chinese satellite or slave State. Trends in India and Sri Lanka had to be arrested and reversed fast.
Modi's willingness to smile and shake China by the hand must never be interpreted to mean that he's forgotten what's between the lines in the India-US military/defence agreement. Such agreements are put in place and are primed to be ACTIVATED at a moment's notice when perceived military threats from a potential enemy force show signs of metamorphosing into rapid deployment forces, jets and submarines literally where your fishermen are fishing. Those Indian fishing trawlers, I can assure you, are doing a heck of a lot more than fishing. A trawler with anti-asdic technology on board can spot a sub, especially a nuclear sub, more than five kilometres away. When an Indian Admiral, a few years ago, took a speed boat ride around Trincomalee Harbour, shortly after explosions ripped out a secret truck load of Chinese explosives in Trincomalee, flattening the Police Station and killing some people, his experienced eye was looking for evidence even back then of Chinese subs deep down in the harbour... WHY? Compelling reasons why Modi's India will back the CBK/Sirisena/Ranil trio to the hilt!
All this puts the last presidential election and today's developments into some sort of logical perspective. We then understand better why Sirisena is playing for time before he and CBK are reasonably sure of victory before calling a general election. The MR UPFA faction can bay all day to the moon, but Sirisena will not call a general election until he is sure the electorate has swung away from MR to the new look SLFP. A revamped Central Committee and islandwide elections organizational structure has also to be in place before he calls a general election. The cleansing out of the CC has run into some flak, but the President seems to be able to respond in a manner that shows he has anticipated these minor hiccups and has contingency plans to retain his growing stranglehold on the emerging new SLFP. No matter what wishful thinkers contend, I find it difficult to see the sacked CC members making, at best, a temporary come back to the CBK/SIRISENA SLFP.
Split in SLFP
Changes in the SLFP 'administered' by Sirisena merely prove my prediction in last week's analysis of a huge split in the SLFP. What Sirisena and CBK are trying to do is to control that split to ensure that they inherit the biggest piece of the SLFP mirror when its shattered pieces fall apart. The vote on the CB Governor's issue proved tha I would not be surprised to see President MS tear up the 100-day programme, and postpone the dissolution of Parliament for June next year, consolidate in the electorate, precipitate the split on the SLFP, have Ranil make more inroads into floating votes and then call a general election. A split SLFP faction in Parliament backed by its leftist riot squad of Vasu, Wimal, Dinesh, Tissa Vitharana et all can at best rouse the rabble in some electorates to create riots here and there in desperate death struggles. Sirisena has been cheek by jowl with these characters in Parliament for decades. He knows what to expect and, I suspect, is more than a match for rabble rousers. And of course we all know who FINANCES these elements. And we also know that India wants the Port City Project out.
The scenario then seems poised to turn very ugly, very soon. Given the known qualities of the antagonists, one looks objectively at the unfolding realities and sees chaos, even anarchy. Violence, planned violence. The university students' protests were just a testing of the waters, a dry run.
The blurred battle lines are getting clearer by the day. It does not take an Einstein to tell you who's on the wrong side of the moral equation.
US checkmates China with Modi and Sirisena
The government has used the US to influence the UN to postpone the probe report's publication until September, a mere 150 days away. The report will be made public irrespective of whether the government initiates its own domestic probe on par with global standards which meet UN specifications. Despite all the ballyhoo, MR knows that the west and Sirisena and company will in the final essay allow the UN to throw the BOOK at MR come September. Besides the anti-west foreign policy issue that created the conditions for the birth of the MS faction and MR's ouster from power, MR's survival, as he see it, leaves him no option but to wrest power by hook or by crook to be in power again as the ONLY OPTION available to him to ensure that he can call the cards when the UN report is made public. In MR's mind, he will concede that Sirisena is unlikely to anger the electorate by throwing him to the wolves. It could ricochet badly on him at election time.
The government has used the US to influence the UN to postpone the probe report's publication until September, a mere 150 days away. The report will be made public irrespective of whether the government initiates its own domestic probe on par with global standards which meet UN specifications. Despite all the ballyhoo, MR knows that the west and Sirisena and company will in the final essay allow the UN to throw the book at MR come September. Besides the anti-west foreign policy issue that created the conditions for the birth of the MS faction and MR's ouster from power, MR's survival, as he see it, leaves him no option but to wrest power by hook or by crook to be in power again as the only option available to him to ensure that he can call the cards when the UN report is made public. In MR's mind, he will concede that Sirisena is unlikely to anger the electorate by throwing him to the wolves. It could ricochet badly on him at election time.
MS persuaded the US to get the report postponed for no other reason than this. All he has to do to signal the UN to publish the report is to have Mangala Samaraweera take a call to the US. I am not brave enough to hazard a guess as to whether or not he can DEAL with the social pejoration it will generate. It can undo the steady inroads he is making into the hearts of the electorate that he is carefully cultivating.
There are unspoken fears known to Sirisena and Ranil who naturally would not want negative and highly disturbing details coming out in a UN probe. This is one of the main undercurrents inexorably pushing MR to make a bid for power again and equally powerfully pushing Sirisena to delay the probe report because it would lead to a huge groundswell of sympathy for MR that could translate into a massive vote for him as Premier in the general election. On the flip side, properly handled, the release of the report could be so manipulated. And timed that it could cast MR in very bad light and swing voter fervour against MR. Sirisena could be playing for time for that purpose and till then hold the domestic probe in abeyance. All I'm saying is that these are the factors which impact on the motives which drive MR, MS and Ranil to seek power at the coming general elections. The US and India would not want the report out for the same reason, while China will not trust Sirisena either way. All else in between with Sirisena will be aimed at gauging out how deep his link with the west goes before they make a decisive policy decision about him.
UN probe report
These facets in the background are what drive MR to want power again so that he has control if and when the UN probe report is released. It's imperative and that is why he has mounted a strong bid to return to power. He simply can't have CBK-Ranil-Sirisena handling a probe any less than he can afford to have the UN throw a probe report in his face. MR knows he now has to come out as a candidate of a new party and a coalition led by him. That's why I said the battle lines are drawn. They were drawn before the UPFA's 'MR FOR PM' demand was launched.
The Congress led administration's approach, that had none of Modi's stance, was seen by the west to be weak in the face of a China that was swiftly consolidating its hold in the Indian Ocean region via its ever increasing footprints all over Sri Lanka and more ominously, offshore too and in the Maldives. Under MR Sri Lanka was quickly becoming a Chinese satellite or slave State. Trends in India and Sri Lanka had to be arrested and reversed fast.
Which is why and how Sirisena came to power. Which is also how Modi came to power in India.
Modi's willingness to smile and shake China by the hand must never be interpreted to mean that he's forgotten what's between the lines in the India-US military/defence agreement. Such agreements are put in place and are primed to be ACTIVATED at a moment's notice when perceived military threats from a potential enemy force show signs of metamorphosing into rapid deployment forces, jets and submarines literally where your fishermen are fishing. Those Indian fishing trawlers, I can assure you, are doing a heck of a lot more than fishing. A trawler with anti-asdic technology on board can spot a sub, especially a nuclear sub, more than five kilometres away. When an Indian Admiral, a few years ago, took a speed boat ride around Trincomalee Harbour, shortly after explosions ripped out a secret truck load of Chinese explosives in Trincomalee, flattening the Police Station and killing some people, his experienced eye was looking for evidence even back then of Chinese subs deep down in the harbour... WHY? Compelling reasons why Modi's India will back the CBK/Sirisena/Ranil trio to the hilt!
All this puts the last presidential election and today's developments into some sort of logical perspective. We then understand better why Sirisena is playing for time before he and CBK are reasonably sure of victory before calling a general election. The MR UPFA faction can bay all day to the moon, but Sirisena will not call a general election until he is sure the electorate has swung away from MR to the new look SLFP. A revamped Central Committee and islandwide elections organizational structure has also to be in place before he calls a general election. The cleansing out of the CC has run into some flak, but the President seems to be able to respond in a manner that shows he has anticipated these minor hiccups and has contingency plans to retain his growing stranglehold on the emerging new SLFP. No matter what wishful thinkers contend, I find it difficult to see the sacked CC members making, at best, a temporary come back to the CBK/SIRISENA SLFP.
Split in SLFP
Changes in the SLFP 'administered' by Sirisena merely prove my prediction in last week's analysis of a huge split in the SLFP. What Sirisena and CBK are trying to do is to control that split to ensure that they inherit the biggest piece of the SLFP mirror when its shattered pieces fall apart. The vote on the CB Governor's issue proved tha I would not be surprised to see President MS tear up the 100-day programme, and postpone the dissolution of Parliament for June next year, consolidate in the electorate, precipitate the split on the SLFP, have Ranil make more inroads into floating votes and then call a general election. A split SLFP faction in Parliament backed by its leftist riot squad of Vasu, Wimal, Dinesh, Tissa Vitharana et all can at best rouse the rabble in some electorates to create riots here and there in desperate death struggles. Sirisena has been cheek by jowl with these characters in Parliament for decades. He knows what to expect and, I suspect, is more than a match for rabble rousers. And of course we all know who FINANCES these elements. And we also know that India wants the Port City Project out.
The scenario then seems poised to turn very ugly, very soon. Given the known qualities of the antagonists, one looks objectively at the unfolding realities and sees chaos, even anarchy. Violence, planned violence. The university students' protests were just a testing of the waters, a dry run.
The blurred battle lines are getting clearer by the day. It does not take an Einstein to tell you who's on the wrong side of the moral equation.
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