India, Sri Lanka head to a win-win relationship

India, Sri Lanka head to a win-win relationship

《 Asian Age 17 Dec 2024 》

All the signs are pointing to the possibility of a major win for India’s foreign policy as the meeting between Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Prime Minister Narendra Modi went off swimmingly. Far from the rancour of the days when Sri Lankan leaders viewed India suspiciously and, to compensate, walked into a Chinese embrace willingly, there was genuine warmth to be seen in the new President who chose to make his first foreign trip to New Delhi rather than Beijing.

From the bitter experience of the time of crisis post-Covid when the economy tanked, Sri Lanka had been seeking change, which it embraced in installing a completely new leadership while steering away from older, dynastic and family-led political parties. The island nation may have learnt who its true friend is though the realisation may have come in the form of a harsh lesson. 

The swivel away from China and a new direction in restoring old civilisational ties with India may have come not only because of the leadership change but also with the genuineness of India’s outreach in its neighbourhood first foreign policy, not to forget the $5 billion-plus aid to get over the meltdown in what was the worst financial crisis in the island’s modern history. 

 Mr Dissanayake’s assurance that he would not allow Sri Lanka’s territory to be used against India in any way affecting its security comes as sweet music to Indian ears from a time when the Rajapaksas flirted with China and were led up the debt trap garden path ending in the island signing away the rights to the Hambantota port. Chinese naval vessels that were being allowed free access to its ports for pit stops while on their spying missions will not have as smooth a passage now. 

Considering China’s economic heft despite the internal problems it faces now, its influence with Sri Lanka will not fade away. India’s position vis-a-vis Sri Lanka has, however, been cleared of the old baggage. India may not be able to compete with China in terms of offering funds but a range of promising pacts in defence — besides an FTA that will be furthered by settlements in the two national currencies — solar and wind hybrid energy and digital connectivity — will be key initiatives.

The readiness with which it has decided to finalise an MoU on debt restructuring is also part of a measured investment in creating win-win situations for both countries. A sticking point in ties will remain the Tamil Nadu fishermen’s problems in their forays into Sri Lankan waters in search of a better catch and their treatment at the hands of their navy. The issue was brought up along with the need for Sri Lanka to fulfil the aspirations of the Sri Lankan Tamils. It was no one’s expectation that Indian fishermen poaching in Sri Lankan waters and using bottom-trawling fish catching methods off mechanised boats would be solved in the meeting of the leaders. The improved outlook of overall ties could, however, lead to more acceptable outcomes. A total of 537 fishermen were arrested this year alone. A diplomatic approach to the problem in more extensive talks with Sri Lanka might help New Delhi show it appreciates the Chennai point of view.⍐

Sri Lanka walks a tightrope between India and China

Sri Lanka walks a tightrope between India and China

《 Murali Krishnan in New Delhi 12/16/2024 》

December 16, 2024

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is embarking on his first overseas visit to India, navigating a complex geopolitical landscape shaped by China's growing influence.

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake met India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Droupadi Murmu in New Delhi on Monday to bolster ties between the neighboring countries.

Dissanayake said India's economic support is critical in realizing his vision of a prosperous Sri Lanka, as the island nation emerges from the worst economic crisis in its independent history.

"Our conversations focused on strengthening Indo-Sri Lanka economic cooperation, enhancing investment opportunities, fostering regional security, and advancing key sectors such as tourism and energy," Dissanayake, who is popularly known as AKD, said in a statement.

"These engagements reaffirm the commitment to deepening the partnership between our two nations."

New Delhi's support amid geopolitical tensions

Modi announced on Monday that India plans to supply liquefied natural gas to Sri Lanka's power plants and will work on connecting the power grids of the two countries.

Many analysts expect AKD's government to come under pressure amid growing geopolitical competition, especially as India and China vie for influence in the region.

Srikanth Kondapalli, an expert on China studies at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, said that Dissanayake's move to prioritize India as a strategic partner is influenced by their shared geographical proximity. India has long shared close political, cultural, economic and military ties to Sri Lanka.

"Unlike Nepal's Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who broke with the usual practice of making India the first destination in the neighborhood, AKD's strategy aligns with India's interests in promoting stability and democratic governance," Kondapalli told DW.

Sri Lanka's strategic shift

New Delhi's support amid geopolitical tensions

Modi announced on Monday that India plans to supply liquefied natural gas to Sri Lanka's power plants and will work on connecting the power grids of the two countries.

Many analysts expect AKD's government to come under pressure amid growing geopolitical competition, especially as India and China vie for influence in the region.

Srikanth Kondapalli, an expert on China studies at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, said that Dissanayake's move to prioritize India as a strategic partner is influenced by their shared geographical proximity. India has long shared close political, cultural, economic and military ties to Sri Lanka.

"Unlike Nepal's Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who broke with the usual practice of making India the first destination in the neighborhood, AKD's strategy aligns with India's interests in promoting stability and democratic governance," Kondapalli told DW.

Sri Lanka's strategic shift

Earlier this month, Nepal's Oli, who was appointed prime minister in July, went on a four-day trip to Beijing to expand cooperation on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure plan that aims to smooth Chinese trade links with dozens of countries.

"This is also informed [by] the much-needed assistance of nearly $4 billion (€3.8 billion) that India extended after Sri Lanka's meltdown in 2022 and the failure of China to bail out Colombo," he added, referring to the country's 2022 economic crisis.

Kondapalli noted that China's aggressive maritime activities and alleged predatory fishing operations in the Indian Ocean have raised concerns for Sri Lanka.

"The loss of Hambantota port for 99 years and extra-constitutional provisions on Colombo's port project to China has sapped Sri Lanka," said Kondapalli.

The port of Hambantota has been a Chinese-run facility since 2017, when Sri Lanka and China signed a 99-year lease after Colombo struggled to repay debt from the port's construction.

"Dissanayake is righting the wrongs done by his predecessors who provided unprecedented space for China and is resetting relations with India," Kondapalli added.

Relations with China under scrutiny

As Sri Lanka comes to terms with its economic realities and seeks to redefine its relationship with its influential neighbors, it faces critical decisions that will shape its economic future and sovereignty.

Dissanayake's visit to New Delhi is crucial for setting the tone of the island nation's foreign policy, especially considering his upcoming trip to China planned for early 2025.

"Sri Lanka has indeed decided to balance India and China and Dissanayake's government will be keen to show some gains while also appearing even-handed," Anil Wadhwa, a former Indian diplomat, told DW.

"The Chinese military presence will, however, continue to grow with the ships equipped with radars and sonography equipment now paying regular visits to Sri Lankan ports," he added.

Sri Lanka's balancing act between India and China

The strategic location of Sri Lanka along vital maritime routes makes it an essential asset for China as it seeks to secure its maritime interests and enhance its geopolitical leverage.

"On the other hand, allowing these visits for other ships, including Indian, gives them the leeway to avoid a confrontational situation," Wadhwa said.

"Playing off India and China could continue but nonetheless, the fact that Dissanayake's first official visit is to neighboring India is good optics and will help move the stalled issues forward."

It is still unclear how Dissanayake will navigate the India-China rivalry or if he will choose one over the other.

Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, president of the Mantraya Institute of Strategic Studies, an independent research forum, noted that Sri Lanka is not trying to distance itself from China and rely solely on India for all its economic needs.

"It needs assistance from both countries and would like to cultivate both to fulfil its distinct needs. Assurance that Sri Lanka would not allow its territory to be used by China for anti-India activities would be the minimum requirement of New Delhi," D'Souza told DW.

"India would also need specifics about the steps Sri Lanka would take to prevent this. However, an aid-dependent Sri Lanka, already deep under the Chinese debt trap, may not be fully in control to assuage Indian concerns," she added.

Recently, Dissanayake expressed his intention to boost ties with both China and India, and he made it clear that Sri Lanka's assets — including its land, sea and airspace — are not up for grabs.

This stance was evident when he opposed India's Adani Group gaining control over key economic sectors like Sri Lankan ports and renewable energy, citing environmental concerns.

"The fact that he is going to China after the India trip underscores how heavily China hangs in Dissanayake's vision and policy," said D'Souza.

"He could be seeking more relaxed and restructured loan repayment terms from Beijing. The fact also remains that Sri Lanka under Dissanayake is neither inclined nor in a position to look for an alternative to China."⍐