“Prepare for an escalation”

 

“Globes” talks to former IDF Head of military intelligence Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin about the impact on Hamas and Hezbollah of the assassinations attributed to Israel and the Iranian axis’s likely response.

In the past 24 hours there has been two assassinations attributed to Israel - top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Hezbollah and Hamas have vowed revenge putting Israel ln a tense standby. To understand Israel’s current situation and the significance of these assassinations, "Globes" spoke to Major General (res.) Amos Yadlin, former head of IDF Military Intelligence and president of strategic national security consultants MIND Israel.

What has happened here over the past 24 hours? Give us a brief summary.

Yadlin: "The last 24 hours have demonstrated the willingness of the State of Israel to 'go all out' and use force even at the cost of great risks. The two targeted assassinations attributed to us were carried out in two main capital cities of the Iranian axis, and both figures had longstanding accounts both with Israel and with the US. In Beirut, Hezbollah's chief of staff Fuad Shukr, also known as Hajj Mohsin, was eliminated in an airstrike. A few hours later, the head of the political wing of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was eliminated in Tehran. The 'Munich promise' of the heads of the security forces from the start of the war is on its way to being realized, with the 'top six' of the Hamas leadership being eliminated one by one. The last ones left standing are Yahya Sinwar and Khaled Mashal."

"A severe blow to Hezbollah"

To what extent do these killings hit Hamas and Hezbollah?

Fuad Shukr, one of the men closest to Hassan Nasrallah, was in charge of building Hezbollah's military power and strategic and technological systems, as well as coordinating ties with Iran. His elimination is a severe blow to Hezbollah and sends a clear message about the long reach and the intelligence and operational capabilities of the State of Israel.

"The Israeli attack was forced by reality due the horrific massacre of the 12 children in Majdal Shams last Saturday, which crossed a red line for Israel. The nature of the attack was designed to strike a balance, so that on the one hand it would be an appropriate response and exact a personal price on those responsible for it, and on the other hand it would not lead to a wider war at a time that is less convenient for Israel."

"Regarding Hamas," Yadlin continues, "After the elimination of Saleh al-Arouri and Mohammed Deif, the killing of Haniyeh represents a substantial and symbolic blow to a leading figure in Hamas’s foreign relations and the connecting link to the Shiite axis and Iran. Hamas's ability to carry out a significant response to the assassination is limited due to the erosion of its capabilities. Sinwar, who remains almost alone in the leadership, is besieged in Gaza with restricted access to the outside world and will be hoping with all his heart to see as a response to the attack from the long-awaited unification of his allies, in other words, a coordinated response against Israel by the (Iranian) axis."

One should not be embarrassed by the important tactical successes achieved last night, and it is necessary to prepare militarily and nationally for a scenario of broad escalation and possibly even war.

What scenarios are there for retaliation from Hezbollah and Hamas?

"Regarding Hezbollah, it is reasonable to assume that Hassan Nasrallah, who operates through symmetry, will try to respond according to the symmetry that Israel created through a longer range rocket barrage, or at military targets in central Israeli cities. Civilians were also killed in Israel's attack, so the possibility that the response will not only aim at military goals cannot be excluded. Tactically, Israel should be prepared intelligence-wise and operationally for Hezbollah's response, and be prepared to stop its retaliatory attacks on Israel, and respond according to the intensity of the damage caused.

"However, we will be required to look at the entire arena of war, with the understanding that we are facing the united forces of a coordinated Iranian axis, and the retaliation to the assassinations is expected to be by the axis. Beirut and Tehran are currently working on their responses, and from past experience, they will not necessarily occur in the immediate term. Therefore, one should not be embarrassed by the important tactical successes achieved last night, and it is necessary to prepare militarily and nationally for a scenario of broad escalation and possibly even war."

"From a strategic point of view," adds Yadlin. "Israel needs to leverage the pressure that Hamas is under in order to push as hard as possible for a deal for the hostages. It is possible that the actions last night will delay the deal in the immediate term and will cause a certain withdrawal, but the elimination of Deif, the raids by the IDF in the centers of the Gaza Strip and the operation in Rafah continue to put pressure on Sinwar, And the fact that he and Mashal know that they are next in line, may spur them to close the deal. The deal will make it possible to end the fighting in Gaza and turn to Israel's great challenges from the east and north, and to enter into a possible broader war in a planned manner and in the method and timing Israel chooses, and not as a result of an unplanned worsening of the situation."

To what extent is the home front prepared for what will happen?

"On the assumption that Hezbollah and Hamas’s retaliation will be limited, the Israeli home front knows how to take it. The response to an attack on the home front is made up of five layers: deterrence - the Iranians and Hezbollah will have to think about what Israel will do in response to their response; the ability to intercept missiles and rockets; active protection; sufficient warning to the population; and entering protected spaces for physical protection. The defense will not be hermetic, but it will provide a good response."⍐

Published by Globes, Israel business news  on July 31, 2024.

IRGC: Haniyeh assassination 'designed, executed' by Israel, supported by US

Late head of political bureau of the Hamas resistance movement, Ismail Haniyeh 

Saturday, 03 August 2024  Press TV

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says the assassination of the head of the political bureau of the Hamas resistance movement, Ismail Haniyeh, in the Iranian capital Tehran, was designed and executed by Israel, with support from the US administration.

In a statement released on Saturday, the IRGC reported that the attack involved the use of a short-range projectile armed with a warhead weighing approximately seven kilograms, which subsequently caused a massive explosion.

It further noted that the projectile was launched from an area outside the late Hamas leader’s residence.

The IRGC also vowed that it would avenge the blood of Haniyeh, noting that the terrorist Zionist regime would face severe punishment at "the appropriate time, place and manner."

Haniyeh, who was in Tehran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iran's newly-elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, alongside other Axis of Resistance leaders, was martyred along with his bodyguard, in an attack early on July 31.

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has warned the Israeli regime of a "harsh response" for Haniyeh's assassination, saying it was the Islamic Republic's duty to avenge the Palestinian resistance leader's blood.

“The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime martyred our dear guest in our homeland and left us bereaved, but it also set the ground for a harsh punishment for itself,” the Leader said.

Israel is on edge fearing widely-expected retaliatory moves from Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement following the assassinations of Haniyeh and top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr.

On July 30, Israel killed Shukr in an airstrike in southern Beirut. A day later, the head of Hamas' politburo was killed in Tehran.

Over the past two days, Air India, Germany's Lufthansa Group, US carriers United Airlines and Delta Air, and Italy's ITA Airways said they had suspended flights to Tel Aviv in the 1948 Israeli-occupied territories.

On Friday, Washington announced it would send navy cruisers, destroyers and fighter jets to West Asia to bolster support for its main regional ally Israel.

Iran’s interim Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani has said that the Islamic Republic will use its legitimate and inherent right to punish the Israeli regime for the assassination of senior Palestinian resistance leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil.

Several foreign officials have contacted the top Iranian diplomat over the past few days, calling on Tehran to exercise self-restraint over a widely anticipated military response.

In the early hours of April 14, the IRGC Aerospace Force launched around 300 of missiles and drones at the Israeli-occupied territories.

The strikes came in retaliation for the Israeli regime’s April 1 airstrike on the consular section of Iran’s embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus which killed seven Iranian military commanders and advisers.⍐

More U.S. Combat Aircraft Heading To Middle East Ahead Of Expected Iranian Attack On Israel

The U.S. will send additional combat aircraft to the Middle East ahead of what is anticipated to be a large-scale attack by Iran and its proxies against Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Thursday, but just how long that may take in the face of what is said to be a looming Iranian military operation is unclear.

“How many planes to send is still being worked out, as are final approvals from senior officials including Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III,” The New York Times reported. “Officials said they were seeking to calibrate the American response to send enough of the right types of aircraft as quickly as possible to help defend Israel without appearing to escalate the conflict.”

Friday afternoon, the Pentagon confirmed that it was sending additional assets to the Middle East and Europe. See our update at the bottom of this story.

A U.S. defense official confirmed to The War Zone that additional aircraft are being considered as part of an effort to protect U.S. and allied personnel.

“U.S. forces in the region are taking necessary measures to increase readiness and force protection,” the official said.

The Pentagon on Friday said there will be additional force protection measures in the region, but would not specify what those would be or when they will arrive.

In a conversation with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Friday, Austin promised the U.S. would support Israel in defending against looming threats from regional adversaries. 

Aircraft Photo of 87-0355 / AF87-355 | General Dynamics F-16CM Fighting Falcon | USA - Air Force

“The Secretary reiterated ironclad support for Israel’s security and informed the Minister of additional measures to include ongoing and future defensive force posture changes that the department will take to support the defense of Israel,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters, including from The War Zone.

Austin “highlighted that further escalation is not inevitable and that all countries in the region would benefit from a de-escalation in tensions, including through completing a Gaza cease-fire and hostage relief deal. He also stressed that the unprecedented scale of U.S. support for Israel since October 7 should leave Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed terrorist groups, with no doubt about U.S. resolve.”

Just how the U.S. will bolster its presence in the region appears to be something that is still in the works.

“I’m not going to get ahead of any decisions that the Secretary has not made yet,” Singh said when asked if Austin has determined what additional U.S. assets will head to the region. Singh declined to confirm that additional combat aircraft are being deployed.

On Thursday, U.S. President Joe Biden “reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi,” according to a White House readout of his call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “The president discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive U.S. military deployments.”

The call came after the assassination of Haniyeh that Israel has yet to acknowledge as well as one it said it carried out Tuesday on Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shakr in Beirut. That attack prompted Hezbollah’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, to also vow vengeance on Israel.

There is growing concern that the response from Iran and its proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen could be far larger and more complex than Tehran’s previous attack on Israel. In April, Iran sent more than 300 drones and missiles toward Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on a consular building right next to the Iranian Embassy in Syria’s capital Damascus on April 1 that killed three top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders.

U.S. and allied weapons played a major role in ensuring what the Israeli Defense Forces said was the destruction of 99% of those aerial threats, most before they could enter Israeli airspace. 

U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles in particular were key to that effort. Forward-deployed F-15Es from units based at RAF Lakenheath in England and Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina played an outsized role in shooting down more than 70 Iranian drones.

In addition to boosting the presence of U.S. combat aircraft in the region, the Pentagon has also gathered more than a dozen warships there, including the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group and the Wasp Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), a three-ship amphibious task force that includes more than 4,000 Marines and sailors, The Washington Post reported.

The Roosevelt strike group is in the Gulf of Oman at the moment while the Wasp ARG is in the eastern Mediterranean, where it is always stationed. Singh told reporters that like previous aircraft carrier strike groups, the Roosevelt could move around the region as needed.

The six Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers said to be among those vessels have air defense systems that have already proven effective against missiles and drones launched by the Houthis in their ongoing campaign against Red Sea shipping.

Ships assigned to the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower‘s carrier strike group (IKECSG) fired 155 Standard-series missiles in operations against Iranian-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen during a recently concluded nine-month deployment, officials said last month. Aircraft from the strike group launched another 60 air-to-air missiles in the course of their operations in and around the Red Sea. Collectively, the IKECSG used its various weapons to destroy a bevy of Houthi aerial drones, missiles, uncrewed surface vessels and undersea vehicles, and different kinds of targets ashore.

During Iran’s April barrage on Israel, two ships in that class – the Arleigh Burke and the Carney – downed Iranian ballistic missiles with Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) anti-missile interceptors. That marked the first combat use of those weapons. You can read more about that in our initial report here.

The success of those engagements prompted Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro to ask Congress for additional funding to purchase more.

“I truly believe that the SM-3s will be needed in greater numbers in the future, given the operations that took place in defense of Israel,” Del Toro testified during a House Armed Services subcommittee hearing in May. “Recently, some were fired. And very effectively. So I think given the future threat and our deterrence mission of the Indo-Pacific, we are going to need more SM-3s in the future.”

When it comes to projecting combat airpower in the Middle East, the Pentagon has several options, including sending long-range bombers from the U.S. as both a deterrence and contingency measure. In February, two B1-B Lancer bombers from Dyess Air Force Base took part in aerial strikes on Iranian-backed militias and IRGC-related targets in Syria and Iraq in retaliation for a drone attack that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan on Jan. 28.

There are several bases in the region hosting U.S. aircraft like Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB) in Saudi Arabia and Al-Dafrah in the UAE, among others. USAF F-16C/Ds from Aviano Air Base in Italy are forward deployed to the region and have been flying in air-defense configurations.

F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers are embarked aboard the Roosevelt. Getting additional fighter aircraft to the region, like Strike Eagles forward from Lakenheath, could take as long as two days, however. That, of course, is after the White House approves the plan.

While the Pentagon is in the process of preparing for a major Iranian-led operation against Israel, time may not be on its side. Iran could kick things off at any movement and moving fighter aircraft and other assets to the Middle East takes time, no matter how on alert units are to carry out their orders. There clearly is a race against the clock underway here that is being informed by intelligence products the U.S. and its allies are working from. Iran could exploit this reality, but time will only tell to what end.

Update: 6:01 PM Eastern –

Singh released a statement confirming additional assets will be heading to the Middle East:

“The Department of Defense continues to take steps to mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or Iran’s partners and proxies. Since the horrific Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, the Secretary of Defense has reiterated that the United States will protect our personnel and interests in the region, including our ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel.

To that end, Secretary Austin has ordered adjustments to U.S. military posture designed to improve U.S. force protection, to increase support for the defense of Israel, and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to various contingencies. 

 To maintain a carrier strike group presence in the Middle East, the Secretary has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group, currently on deployment in the Central Command area of responsibility.   

Additionally, Secretary Austin has ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the U.S. European Command and U.S. Central Command regions. The Department is also taking steps to increase our readiness to deploy additional land-based ballistic missile defense.

The Secretary has also ordered the deployment of an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East, reinforcing our defensive air support capability. 

These posture adjustments add to the broad range of capabilities the U.S. military maintains in the region, including the USS Wasp Amphibious Ready Group / Marine Expeditionary Unit (ARG/MEU) operating in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

As we have demonstrated since October and again in April, the United States’ global defense is dynamic and the Department of Defense retains the capability to deploy on short notice to meet evolving national security threats.   The United States also remains intently focused on de-escalating tensions in the region and pushing for a ceasefire as part of a hostage deal to bring the hostages home and end the war in Gaza.”

Update: 8:21 PM Eastern –

Iran is making a big show of preparing for a looming battle with Israel.

“In coming hours, the world will witness extraordinary scenes and very important developments,” Iranian media is reporting

Iranian media also began rebroadcasting the Iran-Iraq war anthem, reportedly a reference to the state of alarm there.⍐

U.S. forces move toward Israel as Iran threatens to attack

Fighter jets and aircrew on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt. (Seaman Ryan Holloway/U.S. Navy/AP)

By Dan Lamothe August 2, 2024

The U.S. military is repositioning assets and moving additional forces into the Middle East and Europe to defend against a potential attack on Israel by Iran, U.S. officials said.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the deployment of additional Navy destroyers and cruisers, both with offensive and defensive ballistic missile capabilities, as the Pentagon also takes steps to beef up land-based missile defense, Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said in a statement Friday evening. An additional squadron of fighter jets also will be deployed to the Middle East to reinforce defensive air support, she said.

The statement did not identify which vessels and units will be involved, but says they will be added to the “broad range of capabilities the U.S. military maintains in the region.”

Austin also has ordered the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln, an aircraft carrier, and its associated escort ships to ensure that an aircraft carrier remains in the region, Singh said. Another carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, was in the Gulf of Oman on Friday and accompanied by several other warships after they recently moved out of the Persian Gulf, a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. The shift leaves open the possibility that they will move to Israel if they sail west around Yemen toward the Red Sea.

The moves come after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah vowed to retaliate after the killing this week of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr.

Haniyeh was assassinated in a brazen attack at a residence in Tehran secured by the country’s vaunted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel has not claimed responsibility, but U.S. officials privately acknowledge it was behind the killing. Washington was not apprised of the operation beforehand and had no role in it, officials have said.

Shukr was killed in an Israeli airstrike in a Beirut suburb in retaliation for an attack last weekend in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed several children while they played on a soccer field.

The events have brought the region closer to full-blown conflict than perhaps at any point since the Gaza war began 10 months ago with a bloody cross-border attack by Hamas.

Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and a group of militias in Iraq and Syria all receive weapons and training from Iran, part of a vast anti-Israel, anti-U.S. network Tehran has supported for years.

U.S. officials had revealed little until Friday evening about how they were preparing for the possibility of an attack, but the White House said Thursday night that President Biden had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and affirmed his commitment to Israeli security “against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.”

“The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive U.S. military deployments,” said a brief statement summarizing the two leaders’ call.

The recent bloodshed follows a sprawling drone and missile attack by Iran on Israel in April in which the U.S. military intervened, taking down numerous drones and missiles as Israeli forces intercepted others. Iran launched that attack after an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria killed two Iranian generals and other Iranian military personnel.

“As we have demonstrated since October and again in April, the United States’ global defense is dynamic and the Department of Defense retains the capability to deploy on short notice to meet evolving national security threats,” Singh said in her statement on Friday. “The United States also remains intently focused on de-escalating tensions in the region and pushing for a ceasefire as part of a hostage deal to bring the hostages home and end the war in Gaza.”

Among the options available to assist are fighter jets aboard the Theodore Roosevelt, and the naval destroyers nearby, including the USS Daniel Inouye, USS Russell, USS Cole, USS Laboon and USS Michael Murphy. The destroyer USS John S. McCain is also in the region, remaining in the Persian Gulf as the other American warships have moved, said the U.S. official familiar with the repositioning.

Five other U.S. warships are in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and could assist Israel if called upon. They include the USS Wasp, USS Oak Hill, USS New York, USS Bulkeley and USS Roosevelt.

The Bulkeley and the Roosevelt are destroyers with offensive and defensive ballistic missile capabilities, while the other three form the Wasp Amphibious Ready Group, a three-ship team of more than 4,000 U.S. Marines and sailors that includes Marine Corps fighter jets, an infantry battalion and other combat forces from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit. ⍐

 

U.S. Will Send More Defensive Military Capabilities to Middle East to defend Israel

 U.S. Will Send More Defensive Military Capabilities to Middle East

Aug. 2, 2024 | By Jim Garamone, DOD News 

A C-2A Greyhound aircraft lands on the flight deck of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, July 22, 2024. The aircraft carrier is deployed with the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.

More defensive military capabilities will deploy to the Middle East to bolster force protection for U.S. troops in the region and to defend Israel, said Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh today. 

The deployment will be in response to threats from Iran and Iranian-backed militias, Singh said. 

Following the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023, the United States pledged to help defend the nation. In April, when Iran and Iranian-backed groups launched strikes at Israel, the United States led a coalition that helped defend the country from armed drones and missiles. 

Singh said the commitment for more defense capabilities in the region comes from conversations last night between President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This morning, Secretary of the Defense Lloyd J. Austin III followed up on those conversations with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, she said.  

"We've demonstrated since October and again in April [that] the United States's global defense is dynamic, and the department retains the capability to deploy on short notice to meet evolving national security threats," she said. "As a result, the secretary will be directing multiple, forthcoming force-posture moves to bolster force protection for U.S. forces regionwide, to provide elevated support to the defense of Israel and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to this evolving crisis." 

What forces and/or units will deploy remains to be determined. Singh said the United States already has robust defensive capabilities in the region, and those forces may be redeployed within theater. White House officials said, however, that there will be "new" capabilities for the region. 

Biden and Austin have been in close coordination on this effort, Singh said. "The secretary will be directing forthcoming force-posture moves to bolster our force protection," she said.  

Singh stressed any capabilities will be purely defensive and will "send a message of deterrence." 

The United States will continue to work with allies and partners to de-escalate the situation in the region. Allies and partners helped defeat the attacks in April, and a number of countries participate in Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea to keep that vital sea line of communication open, she said. 

The defensive capabilities are all in support of deterrence and de-escalation, Singh said. "We're going to continue to urge for de-escalation, and the best way for that to happen is for this ceasefire deal to come through, so we can get American hostages out, as well," she said. "We believe that that would be the best way to de-escalate and further lower tensions in the region."⍐