The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has triggered a dramatic reshaping of West Asian geopolitics, with Israel and Turkey emerging as key beneficiaries of the regime’s collapse.
The Syrian leader’s downfall, nearly 14 years after the rebellion erupted, weakens Iran’s influence in the region and presents significant strategic opportunities for Ankara and Jerusalem.
Turkey’s strategic gains
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, once an ally of Assad, became a staunch supporter of the Syrian opposition early in the conflict, largely due to Assad’s alignment with Turkey’s regional rival, Iran, Politico reported.
Over the years, Turkey has provided vital support to armed Islamist factions within the Syrian opposition. As moderate and secular rebels lost ground, Turkish-backed Islamist groups consolidated power, bolstering Ankara’s influence.
Assad’s ouster enables Erdoğan to further his geopolitical ambitions, particularly against Kurdish separatists in northeastern Syria. Kurdish groups in the region, which share ties with Turkey’s domestic Kurdish insurgency, have long been a focal point of Turkish security policy.
With Assad gone, Ankara sees an opportunity to curb Kurdish autonomy and reshape the power dynamics in northern Syria. Additionally, the post-war reconstruction effort could prove lucrative for Turkish businesses eager to capitalize on rebuilding Syria’s shattered infrastructure.
Israel’s security Boost
In Jerusalem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad’s fall a “historic day,” pointing to its impact on Iran and Hezbollah, Assad’s principal allies. Israel’s decades-long enmity with Assad’s regime has been tied to its support for Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and a key Iranian proxy.
With Assad out of power, Iran’s ability to supply Hezbollah through land routes in Syria is effectively severed, dealing a severe blow to the group’s military capabilities, Politico reported.
Netanyahu ordered Israeli troops to secure Syrian army positions in the Golan Heights buffer zone to prevent hostile forces from taking root amid the chaos. While celebrating the strategic opportunity, Netanyahu warned of potential instability and called for vigilance to address emerging threats in the region.
A setback for Iran and Hezbollah
Iran’s influence in Syria has been significantly undermined by Assad’s fall. Tehran, which invested heavily in propping up Assad, now faces the collapse of a critical member of its so-called “axis of resistance.” The loss of Syria as a strategic ally disrupts Iranian efforts to maintain a corridor for resupplying Hezbollah in Lebanon, further weakening its regional power.
Hezbollah, reliant on Iranian support, is also a major loser in the regime change. The militant group’s diminished capabilities could alter the balance of power in Lebanon, potentially freeing the country from Hezbollah’s dominance and opening the door for greater political and economic stability.
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Sir Keir Starmer 'welcomes' the fall of the 'brutal' Assad regime in Syria as he heads to Middle East
Sir Keir, who is visiting the region to promote the UK's links with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, urged Syrians to find a political agreement that protected civilians and minorities and rejected terrorism and violence.
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Biden Says Assad’s Fall in Syria Is a ‘Fundamental Act of Justice’
WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden said Sunday that the sudden collapse of the Syrian government under Bashar Assad is a “fundamental act of justice” after decades of repression, but it was “a moment of risk and uncertainty” for the Middle East.
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EU welcomes collapse of Assad regime in Syria
Opposition fighters have taken control of key cities and freed prisoners held for years behind bars.
The dramatic victory of rebel groups in the Syrian civil war is a defeat for Russia and Iran, the European Union's top diplomat declared, as government forces abandoned their posts and militant groups flooded into the capital.
The end of Syrian President Bashar Assad's dictatorship is "a positive and long-awaited development. It also shows the weakness of Assad’s backers, Russia and Iran," EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said in a statement Sunday.
"Our priority is to ensure security in the region," she said. "The process of rebuilding Syria will be long and complicated and all parties must be ready to engage constructively."
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