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Saturday, March 08, 2025

COVID-19 (2020 ), its economic impact continues

COVID-19 shut us down five years ago. Here's how its economic impact continues

March 8 (Reuters) - Five years after the World Health Organization first described the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak as a pandemic, its effects are still being felt on the global economy.

COVID-19 and efforts to contain it triggered record government debt, hit labour markets and shifted consumer behaviour. Inequality has increased, while remote work, digital payments and changes in travel patterns have endured.
Though the immediate shock has passed, COVID-19's legacy continues to reshape global economies and markets.
Here are some of the main impacts.

DEBT, INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES

After countries borrowed money to protect welfare and livelihoods, global government debt has risen by 12 percentage points since 2020, with steeper increases seen in emerging markets.
The pandemic sparked high levels of inflation, which proved to be a major concern in the 2024 U.S. elections. Fuelled by post-lockdown spending, government stimulus packages and shortages of labour and raw materials, inflation peaked in many countries in 2022.
To offset rising prices, central banks raised interest rates, though the intensity of their interventions varied widely.
Sovereign credit ratings, which reflect a country's ability to pay back its debts, were driven lower as economies were shuttered and governments took on huge amounts of extra debt to fill the holes left in public finances.
Data from Fitch Ratings shows the average global sovereign credit score remains a quarter of a notch lower than it was when the pandemic started, reflecting financial challenges made worse by the pandemic, inflation and stricter financial conditions.
For less wealthy emerging market countries, the average remains roughly half a notch lower.
Lower credit ratings generally translate into higher borrowing costs on international capital markets.

LABOUR AND TRAVEL SHIFTS

The pandemic caused millions of job losses, with poorer households and women hit hardest, according to the World Bank.
As lockdowns eased, employment regained momentum but with a considerable shift towards sectors such as hospitality and logistics due to the growing retail delivery sector.
Women's participation in the workforce fell in 2020, mostly due to female over-representation in hard-hit sectors like accommodation, food services and manufacturing, and the burden of caring for children staying home from school. However, the gender employment gap has slightly decreased since, data shows.
Travel and leisure habits also changed. While people travel and eat out as much as they did in 2019, an increase of work-from-home has reduced commuting in major cities such as London.
In London, use of both tubes and buses remains at around a million fewer journeys a day than pre-pandemic.
The airline sector was one of those hit worst by the pandemic, recording industry-wide losses of $175 billion in 2020, according to the global airlines body IATA.
Vaccination campaigns eventually resulted in the lifting of travel restrictions, allowing people back on planes. For 2025, IATA expects an industry-wide net profit of $36.6 billion and a record 5.2 billion passengers.
But travellers must contend with prices of hotel rooms which in many regions have outpaced inflation and remain well above 2019 levels.
In the first half of 2023, Oceania, the continent in the southern hemisphere that includes Australia and smaller nations like Tonga and Fiji, saw the highest price increases from the same period of 2019, followed by North America, Latin America and Europe, according to data from Lighthouse Platform.
Despite minor fluctuations, there is little indication that global hotel prices will return to pre-pandemic norms.
Office vacancy rates are also at record highs in many countries, the result of more remote and flexible work. In the U.S., central business districts had the largest rise in vacancies, which are still evident today.

USHERING IN A DIGITAL WORLD

New consumer trends developed during global lockdowns, as home-bound consumers often had no other option than to shop online. This caused an uptick in online purchases from 2020 that has since stabilised.
Analysts say that in Europe the rise in online sales has been coupled with an increase in selling space, as retailers invest in physical shops to stimulate both online and offline sales.
The space, measured in square metres, edged up almost 1% from 2022 to 2023, an increase that should extend to 2.7% by 2028, data from market research company Euromonitor shows.
Shares in digital and delivery firms led gains during the pandemic, alongside those of vaccine-making pharmaceutical companies.
Five years on, some pandemic-era gainers have lost most of their appeal, but others have enjoyed lasting gains as new markets enabled by the digital shift have opened up.
Despite the bursting of some bubbles and the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, which left the industry reeling, the value of Bitcoin has increased by 1,233% since December 2019, as people looked at new investment opportunities to cut the risk of market volatility.
Stuck at home and with more cash on hand, people also began investing more, with roughly 27% of total U.S. equity trading coming from retail investors in December 2020. Stockbroker TD Ameritrade took the biggest slice of the cake before being acquired by Charles Schwab in a $26 billion deal.
Another platform which gained popularity during the retail trading boom of 2021 is Robinhood, which became the platform of choice for people to pump money into meme stocks.
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Ranil’s Head to Head with Al Jazeera makes quite a stir


Ranil’s Head to Head with Al Jazeera makes quite a stir

By Gagani Weerakoon -March 8, 2025 Ceylon Today

In a recent interview with Mehdi Hasan on Al Jazeera’s Head to Head, former Sri Lankan President and six-time Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe faced pointed questions regarding his administration’s actions during a tumultuous period in Sri Lankan history. Among the many issues raised, the most prominent centred around his role in the aftermath of the 2019 Easter Sunday bombings, his involvement in handling allegations of war crimes from the civil war, and his relationship with ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Wickremesinghe staunchly denied any attempts to shield Gotabaya Rajapaksa, asserting that in Sri Lanka, it is the Attorney General who decides on prosecutions, not political leaders like him. He was clear in defending his decision to allow Rajapaksa to return to Sri Lanka in 2022, stating that there was no legal charge against him at the time and questioning the logic of treating him as a criminal without evidence. The intensity of Wickremesinghe’s remarks, however, contrasted with the renewed accusations from Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith of the Catholic Church, who claimed that his Government had failed to adequately investigate the 2019 bombings, allowing some to shield the true perpetrators. To this, Wickremesinghe dismissed the accusations as “nonsense,” attributing them to the Catholic Church’s political manoeuvring.

The conversation also turned to the Sri Lankan civil war, where Wickremesinghe was pressed on the issue of justice for the thousands of victims, particularly in relation to the Tamil Tigers (LTTE). While admitting that justice had not been served to any of the communities affected by the war, he denied large-scale bombing of hospitals by Sri Lankan forces, though he acknowledged some instances where hospitals were struck. His position on the reappointment of General Shavendra Silva, who the US State Department accuses of war crimes, was also defended by Wickremesinghe, who claimed it was standard practice not to replace military commanders during elections, and he was convinced Silva had not been involved in war crimes.

One of the most striking aspects of the interview was his dismissal of allegations of torture and killings under his watch in the late 1980s, particularly in relation to Batalanda, a housing complex he lived in at the time. Despite a government inquiry naming him as being aware of violations there, Wickremesinghe rejected these allegations outright and questioned the legitimacy of the report, given it had never been tabled in Parliament.

In a broader reflection on his time as President, Wickremesinghe was candid about the challenges he faced in steering the country through its economic crisis. While acknowledging that the IMF deal he brokered stabilised the economy, he remained defiant in defending his record. He suggested that the European Union’s initial stance against him, which involved calls for his resignation over his handling of protests, was hypocritical. In his eyes, the EU first sought his removal but later praised him for rescuing Sri Lanka from economic collapse. He also expressed a critical view of human rights watchdog Amnesty International, calling them “discredited” in Sri Lanka and questioning their impartiality.

In a reflective moment after the interview aired, Wickremesinghe expressed dissatisfaction with how the programme had been edited, claiming that crucial parts of his responses were omitted, and suggesting that the panellists brought in had biases he was unaware of. He highlighted that two of the panellists had alleged links to the LTTE, making the interview feel, in his words, more of an interrogation than a fair discussion. His frustration pointed to a wider concern about how media portrayals can shape the public’s perception of complex political issues.

Wickremesinghe expressed his dissatisfaction with the interview aired by Al Jazeera, questioning the integrity of the panellists who participated.

Speaking to the media shortly after the interview’s release, Wickremesinghe claimed that two of the three panellists who joined broadcaster Mehdi Hasan had pro-LTTE affiliations.

“I was informed that Human Rights Lawyer and former Commissioner of the Human Rights Commission of Sri Lanka, Ambika Satkunanathan, would be part of the interview. I welcomed this, as I have known her despite our ideological differences. However, I later discovered that she had been replaced by two other panellists, whom I was told had pro-LTTE links,” he said.

“This interview was different. When I engage with local media, the interviews are live, with everything—both good and bad—being aired. However, Al Jazeera interviewed me for two hours but released only a one-hour segment. The most important parts were left out,” Wickremesinghe remarked.

“They questioned me about events that occurred under the Rajapaksa administration. I made it clear that I was not in power at the time. I also stated that the Mahanayake of the Malwathu Chapter is Sri Lanka’s foremost religious leader, while others, including Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith, are just religious leaders,” he added.

Ultimately, the interview showcased the complex and often contradictory legacy of Ranil Wickremesinghe’s political career. It is evident that he believes his actions were in the best interests of the country during a crisis, but his responses reveal a man deeply entrenched in defending his record, even in the face of serious allegations. The refusal to accept any wrongdoing or failings on his part could be interpreted as indicative of a leader unwilling to acknowledge the full extent of the controversies that marred his leadership.

SL faces UNHRC

A joint report evaluating Sri Lanka’s recent political and human rights developments has been submitted to the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) by the Sri Lanka Core Group, led by the United Kingdom. The report, presented during the 58th session of the UNHRC, was co-authored by several countries, including Canada, Malawi, Montenegro, and North Macedonia.

The report acknowledges the peaceful elections and the smooth transition of power that took place in Sri Lanka last year. It offers a measured review of the actions taken by the incumbent Government, emphasising the potential of the new administration to address the challenges it faces. As the report states, “We recognise that the new Sri Lankan Government has only been in place for four months, and we encourage Sri Lanka to use the opportunity that this transition represents to address the challenges it faces.”

Moreover, the Core Group commended the Government’s commitment to making meaningful progress on reconciliation. This includes initial steps such as returning land, lifting roadblocks, and allowing communities in the North and East to commemorate the past and memorialise their loved ones. These measures were recognised as positive steps towards fostering a sense of healing and inclusivity in the country’s post-conflict landscape.

The report also welcomed the Government’s stated intention to implement devolution in accordance with the Constitution and to advance governance reforms. This commitment to decentralising power and ensuring greater autonomy for local communities is seen as a vital component of the reconciliation process.

Additionally, the Core Group took note of the Government’s intention to replace the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and stressed that any new legislation should align with Sri Lanka’s international obligations. The report urged the Government to consider the release of individuals still detained under the PTA, reflecting ongoing concerns about the Act’s impact on human rights and civil liberties. The recommendation to repeal or amend the PTA has long been a point of contention, as it has been widely criticised for its potential misuse and for undermining basic freedoms.

Further, the report highlighted the importance of the Government’s continued efforts to address human rights and corruption cases. The Core Group urged that any comprehensive reconciliation and accountability process should have the support of affected communities, build on past recommendations, and meet international standards. Such a process, they emphasised, must be inclusive, transparent, and meaningful to restore trust and ensure lasting peace.

The report also called on the Sri Lankan Government to re-invigorate the work of domestic institutions focused on reparations and addressing the issue of missing persons. This reflects a deep concern for those who have suffered as a result of the civil conflict, particularly in the context of ensuring that victims and their families receive appropriate recognition, compensation, and justice.

In conclusion, the Sri Lanka Core Group reaffirmed its willingness to work with the Sri Lankan Government to ensure that any future transitional justice mechanisms are independent, inclusive, and meet the expectations of affected communities. The Core Group’s approach suggests that international cooperation and support will be critical in ensuring that Sri Lanka’s journey towards reconciliation and accountability is not only meaningful but also sustainable in the long term.

IGP vs NPC

The ongoing dispute between the National Police Commission (NPC) and Acting Inspector General of Police (IGP) Priyantha Weerasooriya has brought to the forefront significant questions about the distribution of powers within Sri Lanka’s Police administration. At the heart of this disagreement is the question of who holds the authority to appoint Officers-in-Charge (OICs) of Police stations – the NPC or the IGP.

The situation escalated when Acting IGP Weerasooriya, citing an interpretation from the Attorney General’s Department, asserted that he had the authority to handle the appointment of OICs. This assertion was immediately contested by the NPC, which maintains that, according to the law, it is the Commission, not the IGP, that holds the power to make such appointments. The NPC has consistently argued that the procedures for appointments, transfers, and disciplinary actions within the Police Force are clearly defined, and that the Commission is entrusted with overseeing the careers of specific officers, such as the OICs.

The NPC’s demand for a meeting with the Attorney General is not to seek clarification on the law itself, but rather to address the IGP’s interpretation of it, which, according to the NPC, was made without prior consultation with the Commission. As a body that functions independently from political influence, the NPC views this issue as part of a broader effort to ensure the depoliticisation and impartiality of the Sri Lanka Police Department.

The dispute became particularly pronounced when Acting IGP Weerasooriya requested that the responsibility for appointing OICs be delegated to him, based on the legal opinion he had sought from the Attorney General. This request was promptly rejected by the NPC, which formally communicated its decision to the Constitutional Council, further intensifying the disagreement. The NPC maintains that its role in the appointment process is a constitutional right, specifically granted under the 21st Amendment to the Constitution, which empowers it to oversee matters related to the Police Force, excluding the IGP’s position.

The core of the dispute also lies in the broader tension between the NPC’s oversight role and the IGP’s operational control. The NPC has made it clear that while it holds authority over appointments, promotions, transfers, and disciplinary actions for a select group of officers, such as OICs and HQIs (Headquarters Inspectors), the IGP is responsible for the same functions concerning all other officers within the force. The NPC has further stated that it does not seek to interfere with the operational decisions of the IGP or his direct control over the Police but instead operates within the framework of constitutional and legal guidelines.

Moreover, the NPC clarified that it had approved a significant number of the Acting IGP’s requested transfers between September 2024 and January 2025, but several of the requested moves were not authorised due to insufficient supporting information. The Commission noted that while many transfers had been granted, others were held up due to procedural lapses, underlining the importance of compliance with established rules and regulations. Despite approving many of the transfers, the NPC also raised concerns about the delay in implementing the decisions, prompting them to seek clarification from the Acting IGP regarding the holdup.

The issue of the appointment of OICs also touches on a critical point of constitutional governance and the principle of accountability. The NPC’s involvement in the appointment process is seen as essential to maintaining an impartial and professional Police Service, free from political interference. The Commission has pointed out that the failure to implement decisions and the lack of communication between the IGP and NPC create an environment of uncertainty and inefficiency, which could ultimately undermine the functioning of the Police Department.

Further, despite the Acting IGP’s claim of seeking the Attorney General’s advice on the matter, the NPC has highlighted that no official notification was made to them about this consultation. This, according to the NPC, demonstrates a lack of communication and collaboration between the IGP and the Commission, which is a fundamental concern for maintaining the integrity of the Police Service.

This dispute also underlines the complexity of the relationship between the NPC and the IGP, a relationship that is essential for the proper functioning of the Police Department. The NPC’s role as an independent oversight body tasked with ensuring transparency and accountability in the Police Force cannot be overstated. Yet, the IGP’s argument that he should have the authority to transfer officers without the NPC’s oversight raises questions about the extent of the IGP’s powers and whether such authority could lead to potential abuses of power or political influence over Police operations.

In response to the Acting IGP’s claim that the NPC has interfered with the internal workings of the Police, the Commission has reiterated that it does not seek to obstruct or challenge the IGP’s authority in areas where it does not have jurisdiction. The NPC’s primary concern is to ensure that appointments and transfers are carried out in accordance with the law, without any undue political or administrative influence.

This conflict, though rooted in legal interpretations, also reflects broader concerns about governance, accountability, and transparency in Sri Lanka’s law enforcement. The NPC has maintained that its role is not one of interference, but rather one of ensuring that the Police Force operates within the confines of the law, and that appointments are made based on merit and need, rather than political connections or favouritism.

Looking ahead, the meeting between the NPC and the Attorney General will likely provide a platform to resolve this dispute, offering clarity on the legal framework governing the appointment and transfer of Police officers. However, it also serves as a reminder of the challenges faced by Sri Lanka’s institutions in maintaining the rule of law, ensuring fairness in public service, and upholding the independence of key oversight bodies such as the NPC.

As this situation continues to unfold, it is evident that the balance between administrative control and independent oversight within Sri Lanka’s Police Service will remain a topic of significant debate and scrutiny, especially in the context of maintaining a non-politicised, accountable, and effective law enforcement system.🔺

Ceylon Today (09-03-2025)

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