 |
| Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, and Vice President JD Vance at an artificial intelligence summit in Paris on Feb. 11. (Leah Millis/Reuters/Pool/AP |
NEW DELHI — Vice President JD Vance and his wife, Usha, are set to arrive in New Delhi on Monday as U.S.-India relations enjoy a period of relative calm.
The Washington Post 20-04-2025
“It was a slap in the face,” said a former senior Biden administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive discussion.
But those concerns have little relevance in Washington today.
“India can now inject some warmth into their relationship with Russia,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, who studies Indian-Russian relations at the Observer Research Foundation.
Some Indians argue that New Delhi’s ties to Moscow help keep the Kremlin at a distance from Beijing.
“The Biden administration did not buy into that argument,” Unnikrishnan said. “Life was becoming difficult. But luckily, because of [President Donald] Trump, there is a certain buy-in to that argument now.”
Sanctions that targeted the flow of technology to Russia under the Biden administration also ensnared some Indian entities.
But Trump announced in February plans to “pave the way” for India to acquire F-35 stealth fighters. Previous administrations hesitated to share such technology, citing the risk that it could be exposed to adversaries. India already uses Russian-made S-400 missile systems.
The breathing room could allow India to continue some long-standing collaborations with Russia, including on civilian nuclear energy. “It is better to have a bird in hand than a pie in the sky,” Unnikrishnan said.
But some warn that inattention to India’s ties with Russia could have consequences. “We invariably lose an opportunity to bring India closer into the fold of like-minded countries,” said Siddharth Iyer, a former Defense Department director for South Asia policy and special adviser to Harris for Indo-Pacific affairs in the Biden administration.
From espionage charges to economics
In 2023, the Justice Department charged an Indian government official with orchestrating a murder-for-hire plot on American soil against a U.S. citizen and Sikh man. The plot was foiled, but the incident became the most serious test of relations between the Biden and Modi administrations.
“We should assume the public attention around that caused some hard thinking in their system,” Iyer said.
In a sign of the lingering sensitivity, Indian national security adviser Ajit Doval, who frequently travels with Modi, was absent from the prime minister’s visit with Biden in Washington in September. In a civil case, the Sikh man has accused Doval directly.
The Washington Post reported last April that U.S. spy agencies tentatively assessed that Doval was probably aware of the attempted murder, but they had found no proof.
After Trump’s election, Doval joined Modi on his February visit to Washington. Attempts to serve him with a legal summons in the civil case on that trip were unsuccessful, court records show.
In another hit to relations under Biden, Adani was indicted in November on charges of fraud and bribery, drawing scrutiny to a tycoon whose financial rise has paralleled Modi’s political ascent.
The charges briefly cast a shadow over U.S.-Indian relations — Adani withdrew a loan request from the U.S. government for a port terminal in Sri Lanka — but it was short-lived. Adani’s firms are now preparing to invest heavily in American infrastructure.
“The issue is not a top priority for this administration and is unlikely to be discussed in any conversations,” said Aparna Pande, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute. “It will not, however, disappear completely as it will stay in a file and may come up, when the administration changes or some incident occurs.”
Once sensitive issues under Trump have also withered away for now. Indians are the third-largest group of undocumented immigrants in the U.S., the Pew Research Center estimated for 2022.
The Trump administration’s deportation flights carrying shackled Indian citizens drew some anger in India, but they have not caused significant friction between the administrations. Many of the foreign students whose visas are now being revoked are Indian, but the Modi administration has chosen to remain silent.
Meanwhile, Trump and his allies’ commercial links to the country are steadily growing. Trump Towers has announced at least two new real estate projects. Companies run by top Trump aide Elon Musk, including Tesla and Starlink, are making inroads into sales and government permissions in the country. After a phone call with Modi, Musk announced on Saturday a trip to India later in the year.
Some former Biden officials and analysts stress his administration’s effort to keep frictions from getting in the way of the broader strategic convergence against China. But despite that effort, they acknowledge, Indian officials have displayed greater comfort with Republican administrations.
Now some worry that strategic concerns are being overshadowed by a more transactional relationship.
“The center of gravity in the relationship has moved to trade, which has never really been a strong suit in the U.S.-India relationship,” said Anthony Renzulli, a former director for India at the National Security Council. “You have moved from defense technology to something that is on thinner ice.”
Indian officials appear unfazed. From immigration enforcement to energy purchases, New Delhi has signaled a proactive compliance with the Trump administration’s demands.
“There is no alternative for India’s development project without the United States,” Unnikrishnan said. “And at the highest levels, we determined that if this means there are some unpleasant compromises, they will be made.”
That posture has led to greater confidence. “I know, today, a lot of countries are nervous about the U.S.,” Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar told reporters after Trump defeated Harris in November. “Let’s be honest about it: We are not one of them.”🔺
