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Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro dies aged 90



Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro dies aged 90
 
"For everyone in Cuba and outside his death is very sad," said Havana resident Luis Martinez. "It is very painful news."
By Marc Frank and Nelson Acosta | HAVANA
 
 
 
Many love him and share his faith in communism, and even some who abandoned their political belief still respect him.

 
Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who built a communist state on the doorstep of the United States


 

Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who built a communist state on the doorstep of the United States and for five decades defied U.S. efforts to topple him, died on Friday. He was 90.

A towering figure of the 20th century and Cold War icon, Castro stuck to his ideology beyond the collapse of Soviet communism and remained widely respected in parts of the world that struggled against colonial rule.

Castro had been in poor health since an intestinal ailment nearly killed him in 2006. He formally ceded power to his younger brother, Raul, two years later.

Wearing a green military uniform, a somber Raul, 85, appeared on state television on Friday night to announce Fidel's death, 60 years to the day since the two brothers and dozens of supporters left Mexico on a boat to take revolution to Cuba.

"At 10:29 at night, the chief commander of the Cuban revolution, Fidel Castro Ruz, died," he said, without giving a cause of death."Ever onward, to victory," he said, using the slogan of the Cuban revolution.

A mix of tributes and condemnation poured in from allies and foes around the world.
"History will record and judge the enormous impact of this singular figure on the people and world around him," U.S. President Barack Obama said, extending "a hand of friendship" to
Cuba.

Obama's elected successor, Donald Trump, issued a blunt statement calling Castro "a brutal dictator who oppressed his own people for nearly six decades."

"Fidel Castro's legacy is one of firing squads, theft, unimaginable suffering, poverty and the denial of fundamental human rights," Trump said.Venezuela's socialist president, Nicolas Maduro, urged revolutionaries to follow Castro's legacy, while Chinese President Xi Jinping said "the Chinese people have lost a close comrade and a sincere friend."

DECADES OF HOSTILITY

Raul Castro, who glorified his older brother, has nonetheless changed Cuba by introducing market-style economic reforms and agreeing with the United States in December 2014 to
re-establish diplomatic ties and end decades of hostility.

It is unclear whether Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, will continue efforts to normalize relations with Cuba or fulfill a campaign promise to close the U.S. embassy in Havana once again.

Fidel Castro himself offered only lukewarm support for the 2014 deal with Washington, raising questions about whether he approved of ending hostilities with his longtime enemy, a conflict that took the world to the brink of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

He did not meet Barack Obama when he visited Havana earlier this year, the first time an American president had stepped foot on Cuban soil since 1928.

Days later, Fidel wrote a scathing newspaper column condemning Obama's "honey-coated" words and reminding Cubans of the U.S. efforts to overthrow the Communist government.

Cuba has declared nine days of mourning, during which time Castro's ashes will be taken to different parts of the country. A burial ceremony will be held on Dec. 4.

There will be no top level games of baseball - Castro's passion after politics - for the nine-day mourning period, the sport's national federation declared.

Hundreds of students gathered in Havana on Saturday to honor Castro, and mass rallies are planned for the coming days.

"When I found out Fidel had died, I felt such pain. I cried," said Badanys Rodriguez, 39, proudly showing off a tattoo on his shoulder of late Argentine revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara, one of Castro's closest comrades in the revolution.

However, in Miami, where many exiles from Castro's government live, a large crowd waving Cuban flags cheered, danced and banged on pots and pans to celebrate the passing of a man they loathed.

MILITARY FATIGUES, CIGARS

The bearded Fidel Castro took power in a 1959 revolution and ruled Cuba for 49 years with a mix of charisma and iron will, creating a one-party state and becoming a central figure in
the Cold War.

He was demonized by the United States and its allies for his repression of dissent at home and support of rebellion abroad, but admired by many leftists around the world, especially
in Latin America and Africa.

Nelson Mandela, once freed from prison in 1990, repeatedly thanked Castro for his efforts in helping to weaken apartheid.

In April, in a rare public appearance at the Communist Party conference, Fidel Castro shocked party apparatchiks by referring to his own imminent mortality.

"Soon I will be like all the rest. Our turn comes to all of us, but the ideas of the Cuban communists will remain," he said.

Transforming Cuba from a playground for rich Americans into a symbol of resistance to Washington, Castro crossed swords with 10 U.S. presidents while in power, and outlasted nine of them.

He fended off a U.S.-backed invasion at the Bay of Pigs in 1961 and claimed he survived or evaded hundreds of assassination attempts, including some conjured up by the CIA.

Wearing green military fatigues and chomping on cigars for many of his years in power, Castro was famous for long, fist-pounding speeches filled with blistering rhetoric, often aimed at the United States.

At home, he swept away capitalism and won support for bringing schools and hospitals to the poor. But he also created legions of enemies and critics, concentrated among the exiles in Miami who saw him as a ruthless tyrant.

"With Castro's passing, some of the heat may go out of the antagonism between Cuba and the United States, and between Cuba and Miami, which would be good for everyone," said William M. LeoGrande, co-author of a book on U.S.-Cuba relations.

Castro's death - which would once have thrown a major question mark over Cuba's future - seems unlikely to trigger a crisis as Raul Castro is firmly ensconced in power.

Fidel Castro no longer held leadership posts in his final years. He wrote newspaper commentaries on world affairs and occasionally met foreign leaders, but lived in semi-seclusion.

Still, the death of the man known to most Cubans as "El Comandante" - the commander - or simply "Fidel" leaves a void in the country he dominated for so long. It also underlines the generational change in Cuba's communist leadership.

Raul Castro has vowed to step down when his term ends in 2018, and the Communist Party has elevated younger leaders to its Politburo, including 56-year-old Miguel Diaz-Canel, who is first vice president and the heir apparent.

REVOLUTIONARY ICON

A Jesuit-educated lawyer, Fidel Castro led the revolution that ousted U.S.-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista on Jan. 1, 1959. Aged 32, he quickly took control of Cuba and sought to transform it into an egalitarian society.

His government improved the living conditions of the very poor, achieved health and literacy levels on a par with rich countries and rid Cuba of a powerful Mafia presence.

But he also cracked down on dissent, jailed his opponents, seized private businesses and homes, and monopolized the media.Hundreds of thousands of Cubans fled the island.

"The dictator Fidel Castro has died, the cause of many deaths in Cuba, Latin America and Africa," said Jose Daniel Ferrer, leader of the island's largest dissident group, the Patriotic Union of Cuba.

Many dissidents settled in Florida, influencing U.S. policy toward Cuba and plotting Castro's demise. Some even trained in the Florida swamps for the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion. But they could never dislodge him.

In 1962, the United States imposed a damaging trade embargo that Castro blamed for most of Cuba's ills, using it to his advantage to rally patriotic fury.

Over the years, he expanded his influence by sending Cuban troops into faraway wars, including 350,000 to fight in Africa. They provided critical support to a left-wing government in Angola and contributed to the independence of Namibia in a war that helped end apartheid in South Africa.

Castro also won friends by sending tens of thousands of Cuban doctors abroad to treat the poor
and bringing young people from developing countries to train them as physicians.

Born on Aug. 13, 1926, in Biran, eastern Cuba, Castro was the son of a Spanish immigrant who became a wealthy landowner.

Angry at social conditions and Batista's dictatorship, Castro launched his revolution on July 26, 1953, with a failed assault on the Moncada barracks in the eastern city of Santiago.

"History will absolve me," he declared during his trial.

He was sentenced to 15 years in prison but was released in 1955 after a pardon that would come back to haunt Batista.

Castro went into exile in Mexico and prepared a small rebel army to fight Batista, including "Che" Guevara.

On Nov. 25, 1956, Castro and a ragtag band of 81 followers set sail from the Mexican port of Tuxpan aboard an overloaded yacht called "Granma," reaching Cuba in early December.

Only 12, including Fidel, Raul and Guevara, escaped a government ambush when they landed in eastern Cuba.

Taking refuge in the rugged Sierra Maestra mountains, they built a guerrilla force of several thousand fighters who, along with urban rebel groups, defeated Batista's military in just over two years.

Early on, at the height of the Cold War, Castro allied Cuba to the Soviet Union, which protected the Caribbean island and was its principal benefactor for three decades.

The alliance brought in $4 billion worth of aid annually, including everything from oil to guns, but also provoked the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when the United States discovered Soviet missiles on the island.

Convinced that the United States was about to invade Cuba, Castro urged the Soviets to launch a nuclear attack.Cooler heads prevailed.

Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev and U.S. President John F. Kennedy agreed the Soviets would withdraw the missiles in return for a U.S. promise never to invade Cuba.
  SPECIAL PERIOD'

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an isolated Cuba fell into an economic crisis that lasted for years and was known as the "special period." Food, transport and basics such as soap were scarce and energy shortages led to frequent and long blackouts.

Castro undertook a series of tentative economic reforms to get through the crisis, including opening up to foreign tourism.

The economy improved when Venezuela's late socialist leader, Hugo Chavez, who looked up to Castro as a hero, came to the rescue with cheap oil. Aid from communist-run China also
helped, but Venezuelan support has eased since Chavez's death in 2013.

Plagued by chronic economic problems, Cuba's population of 11 million has endured decades of hardship, although not the deep poverty, violent crime and government neglect of many other developing countries.

Cuban state workers earn on average the equivalent of $25 a month and struggle to make ends meet even in an economy where education and healthcare are free and many basic goods and services are heavily subsidized.

Still, for most Cubans, Castro has been the ubiquitous figure of their lives.

Many love him and share his faith in communism, and even some who abandoned their political belief still respect him.

"For everyone in Cuba and outside his death is very sad," said Havana resident Luis Martinez. "It is very painful news."

(Reporting by Daniel Trotta, Marc Frank, Sarah Marsh and Simon Gardner; Additional reporting by Ana Isabel Martinez; Editing by Kieran Murray, Bill Rigby, Jonathan Oatis and
Jacqueline Wong)

Death By Demonetisation

Death By Demonetisation
by Satya Sagar — November 17, 2016 



The abrupt demonetisation of 500 and 1000 rupee notes by the Narendra Modi regime is a drastic move that is staggering in its scale, ambition and repurcussions. The only other figures in modern history one can think of, devious or stupid enough to attempt something similar, are the likes of Marcos, Suharto, Idi Amin and Pol Pot.

For all its audacity however, the decision could go down also as the grandest of blunders made by anyone in Indian political history. Poorly planned and implemented it is likely to prove disastrous not only for the country’s economy but – ironically enough,– for the BJP’s own electoral fortunes.

The abolition of the two currency notes – that make up 86% of all cash in circulation in the Indian economy –  has affected almost every family in the second most populous nation on the planet. The harassment of the common citizen – particularly from the ranks of the urban and rural poor-through denial of access to income, savings and livelihood will not be forgotten anytime soon.

The Modi government’s  supporters have termed demonetisation a ‘surgical strike’ against black money, calling it a ‘bold’ , ‘necessary’ and ‘well intentioned’ step. A more rabid section of his fans see all complaints as coming from those who benefited from black money, mainly the BJP’s political opponents. The Prime Minister himself has called upon the nation to ‘make sacrifices’ and put up with hardship for 50 days in this battle against corruption.

However, growing consensus among economists both within and outside the country is that demonetisation is a foolish measure and will hurt the Indian economy badly – especially farmers, small businesses, labour and anyone part of the country’s informal sector – and operates on a daily basis through cash transaction. The informal sector constitutes over 30 % of the Indian economy in value and 92% in terms of workforce employed[1].

Since the drastic policy was announced on November 8, all these have come to a complete standstill, leaving millions without livelihood or means to buy basic goods. As one respected economist has pointed out demonetisation may have permanently damaged India’s informal sector[2].

A severe deflation is predicted over the next six months to a year or even longer, as spending power disappears or goes down for millions of Indians and businesses shut down. There is also the concern that, with government issued currency losing credibility through demonetisation, more and more people will keep their money in unproductive but safe assets like gold and property.

So, why would the government take such a high risk step ? What was Mr Modi really trying to do when he announced a measure that directly affects almost every single family in the second most populous nation on the planet?  Who are the real beneficiaries of this drastic policy? Will it really stop black money from circulating in the economy and end corruption from the country?

Despite all this propaganda it is quite clear now that demonetisation has nothing really to do with black money, that constitutes a sizeable 20 % of the Indian economy, of which only 6% is hoarded in cash, the rest being stashed away in gold, real estate and foreign accounts. If the government was serious about hurting the beneficiaries of black money they would have started by prosecuting those who keep such ill-gotten wealth in non-cash assets. Also, given the large-scale collusion of the Indian political class and bureaucracy in corruption the Modi regime should have first gone after its own ministers and government officials (particularly from the tax and revenue collection departments) to set a public example.

At its core, demonetisation is essentially an an attempt at economic and social engineering – on behalf of corporate banking and financial elites – the new paymasters Modi genuflects to after having ditched the small and medium mercantile lobbies the BJP represented for long. The Indian middle-classes, both real and aspirational, are rooting for the policy as they see a consolidation of their own power and future benefits in it.

With one stone, the policy’s architects have tried to slaughter many birds: recapitalise public banks burdened with bad loans; lend out new deposits to cronies in the corporate sector; enrich new entrants into the digital banking business, give the government extra funds to spend on its pet projects and steal a march over political rivals.

a. Rebooting troubled Indian banks: The bad loans or Non Performing Assets (NPAs) in the Indian banking sector, stood at nearly6 lakh crore rupees by end of March 2016[3].  Over 90 per cent of this is on the books of public-sector banks, with the State Bank of India accounting for the highest amount. Even this sum, stunning as it may be, is considered a gross underestimation and if loans that face the risk of being declared NPAs are also taken into account, theoverall stressed advances of Indian banks will double[4].  A bulk of the NPAs are in turn due to default on interest payments by the corporate sector, which has been milking the banking system through its political patrons.

The increase in deposits of banks expected due to the crackdown on black money is expected to help banks get into better health, lower interest rates and enable them to resume lending to Indian businesses again. In other words, demonetisation is a way of saving many Indian public sector banks while also providing corporates with fresh loans,  a very dubious strategy given those in power seem to have no real will to recover money from their defaulter cronies.

b. Increasing the government’s cash flow: One of the justifications being given now for demonetisation is that an estimated Rs.16 lakh crores circulating in the Indian economy as cash, mostly in the form of 500 and 1000 rupee notes, will all get accounted for as they will be forced to go through the banking system. Assuming that a significant portion of the cash held in high denomination notes is ‘black money’ – it is argued that a significant percentage of this black money will not come back at all due to fear of penalties and prosecution and becomes useless. This will reduce the overall liability of the Researve Bank of India by anywhere between 2-4 lakh crore rupees, providing a windfall to the state exchequer. This calculation has been challenged by several economists but even if it were right, the moot question is what the government plans to spend all this extra money on, given its extremely poor record of spending on health, education and infrastructure for the welfare of the population?What is the guarantee that it will not all end up in the pockets of ruling party politicians and their businessmen friends?

c. Boosting the digital cash economy: In July this year a new study by Google and Boston Consulting Group[5] predicted an exponential increase in digital payments, estimated to grow by 10 times to touch US$500 billion by 2020 – or around 15% of the Indian GDP by that time. A bulk of these payments, the study said, will be micro-transactions, with over 50% of person-to-merchant business expected to be under100.

The biggest barrier to this prediction coming true however is supposed to be the fact that a vast majority of Indians prefer to use cash over digital money. Cash, as a percentage of total consumer payments in India, is around 98%, compared with 55% in the US and 48% in the UK, according to report by Payments Council of India released in 2015[6].

In one sweeping stroke, the Modi regime has changed all that and through demonetisation is about to force millions of Indians into the waiting arms of around a dozen private ‘payment banks’ given licences to operate by the Reserve Bank of India in 2015. Among the big non-banking sector corporate grabbing these licenses are Reliance Industries, Airtel, Aditya Birla group, Vodafone, Paytm and Tech Mahindra. The fact that Paytm[7] saw more than five-fold rise in overall traffic in less than 18 hours of the demonetization is an indication that ‘achche din’ have really arrived for the BJP’s cronies in the new banking sector.

Ironically  (or maybe not so ironically) the total black money stored in digital form in foreign banks and in benami names in domestic banks and in shares, bonds and other financial instruments is much bigger than that in hard cash. In the absence of a honest political ruling class, bureaucracy or police the shift to a digital economy will only make it easier to store black money while making companies in the banking sector rich.

d. Cutting political opponents to size: Apart from all these dubious motives behind demonetisation there seems to be something even more devious at work. There are serious allegations of a scam–that BJP insiders changed their hoards of black money into white in various ways in the run up to the new policy. While these charges need further investigation, the Indian media has already reported a suspicious surge in bank deposits in the months just prior to demonetisaion and even produced evidence of the BJP’s West Bengal unit depositing large sums of cash[8] into its account just hours before the announcement was made. Given the widespread use of black money in cash by all political parties during elections demonetisation is calculated to hit the BJP’s opponents in the upcoming Punjab and Uttar Pradesh elections. Public discontent over the policy could however negate any such gains.

Looking at the demonetisation policy from a more long-term political perspective the portents under the current regime are scary. What Narendra Modi is really proving is that he is capable of playing a very high-risk game in order to boost his own stature, ram through policies that benefit his corporate cronies and care two hoots for the welfare of the Indian masses (despite being a chaiwallah’s son himself!). It is a display of high confidence, even arrogance, on part of the BJP ‘strongman’ that is extraordinary even by his previous record and standards.

The other point to note is that the Indian right wing, represented by the BJP and the Sangh Parivar, is not at all hesitatnt about turning the entire country or even the Indian Constitution upside down in pursuit of whatever objectives they deem worthwhile. In that sense the idea of ‘revolution’ or overthrow of the state and current social order,  rhetorically championed for long by leftists, is being implemented in practice by the right-wing. The Sangh Parivar has become the only effective insurrectionary force in the country today- with truly frightening possibilities in future, including a political emergency to accompany the financial one.

This is not to say at all they will necessarily succeed in their plans. Fortunately for Indian democracy, those espousing fascist control also seem to be cocksure and foolish – as undoubtedly Modi and his men have been with the demonetisation decision –a truly spectacular self-goal on their part.
With public anger against the policy growing steadily this is perhaps the right time for opponents of the Parivar’s various, draconian gameplans to get their act together and mobilise the Indian people. How seriously they carry out this mission will determine whether it is the Parivar or its opponents who finally go out of circulation –like the recently abolished currencies.

Satya Sagar is a journalist and public health worker who can be reached sagarnama@gmail.com
--------------------------------Ref
[1]Indian Informal Sector: an Analysis Dr. Muna Kalyani. International Journal of Managerial Studies and Research (IJMSR) Volume 4, Issue 1, January 2016, PP 78-85.
https://www.arcjournals.org/pdfs/ijmsr/v4-i1/9.pdf
[2] http://thewire.in/80564/modis-demonetisation-move-may-have-permanently-damaged-indias-informal-sector/
[3] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/51078318.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
[4] http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-indian-banks-stressed-loans-pile-set-to-top-rs-13-lakh-crore-2211890
[5] http://www.livemint.com/Industry/M6SPyd4vUcC7QIQRnjBqaO/Digital-payments-in-India-seen-touching-500-billion-by-2020.html
[6] https://www.saddahaq.com/digital-india-epayments-and-online-transactions-upset-the-traditional-paper-payment-apple-cart-incentives-for-epayments-could-be-offered-in-the-budget
[7] http://www.livemint.com/Companies/iHcFkPVVuATAjxCD5zK4QJ/Digital-payment-platforms-record-surge-in-transactions-after.html
[8] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/bengal-bjp-deposits-money-just-hours-before-currency-ban-announcement-cpm-alleges-tip-off/articleshow/55372157.cms
 

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