6 reasons Russia and Turkey will struggle to become strategic partners

6 reasons Russia and Turkey will struggle to become strategic partners

August 10, 2016 MAXÍM YUSIN, KOMMERSANT

The Russian-Turkish rapprochement obtained during the Aug. 9 summit in St. Petersburg must not engender unrealistic expectations and excessive illusions. There are still many problems and serious contradictions in relations between Moscow and Ankara for there to be, as some commentators are already saying, a "strategic alliance" between Russia and Turkey.

1. Syria

The primary problem is the diametrically opposed position of the sides on the Syrian conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin is supporting Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to have him overthrown. In this sense nothing has changed.

Putin-Erdogan meeting in St. Petersburg: Economy before politics
Putin-Erdogan meeting in St. Petersburg: Economy before politics
Ankara also has not stopped backing Syrian opposition units, those who are now advancing on Aleppo and who are being bombed by Russia's air force. We should not forget that it was the contradiction on Syria that had led to an unprecedented crisis in bilateral relations after the downing of the Russian bomber in November 2015. These contradictions persist.

2. The Kurds

The second problem is also related to the Syrian civil war – the Kurds. For Ankara the Kurdish units in Syria who are fighting with the Islamist radicals are opponents, separatists and accomplices of the "terrorists" from the Kurdistan Workers' Party, against which Erdogan is waging a war. For Moscow the Syrian Kurds are potential allies. Moscow has also traditionally had special relations with the Turkish Kurds, whom it does not consider enemies.

3. Nagorno-Karabakh

The third problem is related to the ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, now in its third decade. With all its measured statements and equidistance, Moscow is perceived in the world as Armenia's potential ally, since they are both members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. As for Turkey, it does not even try to show objectivity and impartiality. Ankara is unequivocally on Baku's side.

4. Competition in the CIS

The fourth problem concerns the post-Soviet space. Ankara has good relations with the Turkic republics of the former USSR (besides Azerbaijan, there is Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan) and for Moscow is thus a geopolitical competitor. A special and painful issue is Turkey's penetration into the "brotherly" Turkish-language republics of the Russian Federation.

5. Anti-Kremlin elements in Turkey

The fifth problem regards the fact that organizations that are openly hostile to Moscow (Crimean Tatars and those from the North Caucasus) are active on Turkish territory without any restrictions. They are supported by many influential diasporas. Therefore, even if he wanted to remove this irritant in relations with Russia, Erdogan would encounter serious opposition inside his country.

6. Lack of trust

The sixth problem is the crisis in trust. Moscow no longer publicly speaks about the incident with the downed Russian plane. But it has not been forgotten. Just like the hostile statements made by Turkish officials, including Erdogan, immediately after the incident have also not been forgotten. It would have been strange if after the destruction of the Su-24 Moscow had not come to certain conclusions about the Turkish government's reliability and predictability.

Finally, there is a seventh problem: the current rapprochement, in a significant way, is forced. The West perceives Moscow, and as of recently Ankara, cautiously; it is distancing itself from them. In such a situation the attempt to find an alternative partner and break out of international isolation seems completely natural. At the same time there is no certainty that Turkey, if its relations with the US and EU normalize, will continue cooperation with Russia and realize such projects as the Turkish Stream.

That is why we should not speak about a strategic partnership between Moscow and Ankara yet. It would be better to speak of its imitation. However, in comparison to the state of an imminent armed conflict that we saw half a year ago, the current reconciliation is great progress. It gives hope that the sides are trying to solve at least some of the above-mentioned problems.

The article was first published in Russian by Kommersant.


The opinion of the writer may not necessarily reflect the position of RBTH or its staff.

Kashmir: DAY 39 - Toll 65: Forces shoot dead 5 more civilians

DAY 39 | Toll 65: Forces shoot dead 5 more civilians

Bullets rain in Budgam, Anantnag areas | Slain include 2 teenagers, 2 more ‘critical’ | Over 70 injured in day-long clashes; Army ‘beats people to pulp’ in Ganderbal | Huge pro-freedom rallies held in several areas

ABID BASHIR
Srinagar, Publish Date: Aug 17 2016 12:02AM | Updated Date: Aug 17 2016 1:34AM
DAY 39 | Toll 65: Forces shoot dead 5 more civilians

Photo: Habib Naqash/GK

Bloodbath continued in Kashmir as forces shot dead five more civilians including two teenagers on Tuesday—four in Central Kashmir’s Budgam district and one in South Kashmir’s Anantnag district—while at least 70 people were injured in day-long clashes in several areas. The condition of two injured youth is stated to be critical. With five more deaths, the toll has climbed to 65 in a span of 39 days while the number of injured has touched 6000. Of total injured, 500 have sustained grave pellet injuries in their eyes and are on the verge of losing their eye-sight, according to medicos.
Locals said on August 15, dozens of people took to streets in Aripanthan village of Beerwah tehsil of Budgam district to protest the alleged atrocities of forces. Locals told Greater Kashmir that forces broke windowpanes of many houses in the area without any provocation.

“Actually, some youth had pushed back SDM Budgam who had come to participate in official August 15 function yesterday. Perhaps, to take the revenge, forces created fear-psychosis among people by resorting to damaging of residential houses in the evening,” a group of locals alleged.
Things turned ugly on Tuesday morning (August 16) when locals of Aripanthan village went to nearby check-post to buy newspapers and in the meantime, some forces’ vehicles passed by. “Some forces personnel disembarked from their vehicles to clear the road where youth had placed big rocks to prevent the forces’ movement in the area,” witnesses said.

They said forces resorted to indiscriminate firing on people in which four persons sustained serious bullet injuries.

Witnesses said a civilian Muhammad Ashraf Wani, 35, s/o Ghulam Muhammad of Hazarpora, was looking for his child when a bullet hit him. “He died on the spot,” they said. “As the forces resorted to firing, all people laid themselves on ground.”

The witnesses said the forces fired at those who were walking at distance from the site where their vehicles were located. “12 more youth and a woman sustained bullet injuries of which two died on the spot while another one was shifted to SKIMS Bemina along with others,” they said.

The two other civilians who also died on the spot were identified as 25-year-old Javaid Ahmed Sheikh s/o Ghulam Rasool and Javaid Ahmed Najar, 19, S/o Ghulam Rasool.  The third one was brought dead to SKIMS Bemina, hospital sources said, and identified the slain as 25-year-old Manzoor Ahmed Lone s/o Muhammad Akbar. Locals said all the three slain civilians hailed from Aripanthan village of Beerwah Tehsil.

Block Medical Officer Beerwah said three youth were brought dead to Beerwah hospital. Locals said the situation in Arpanthan and Beerwah was tense as people in hundreds hit the streets to take part in funeral prayers of the four slain youth. They said people from dozens of villages that include Khag, Beerwah, Adina, Magam and others marched towards Aripanthan to join the prayers.

Reports meanwhile said the condition of two youth injured at Aripanthan—Touqeer Ahmed and Farooq Ahmed—is critical and they both are battling for life at SKIMS Soura.

‘ARMY BEATS PEOPLE TO PULP’

Reports said at least 35 people were allegedly beaten to pulp by Army in Central Kashmir’s Ganderbal district. The Army, however, refuted the allegations, claiming that they resorted to aerial firing only when their vehicles were stoned at Kurhama and Baroosa areas.  Officials at Primary Health Centre Lar and District Hospital Ganderbal confirmed that injured were brought there for treatment. “Most of the injured had bone fractures and swelling due to beating,” they said.
Reports said late evening protests were witnessed in Baroosa and other areas of Ganderbal district.  Some injured were also shifted to PHC Wakoora.

At Manigam, hundreds of women took out a pro-freedom rally that culminated peacefully. Reports said a candle march was also held in Kangan area.

SOUTH KASHMIR

As Kashmir was mourning the death of four civilians in Budgam, the Army shot dead a 15-year-old-boy at Larkipora in Dooru area of South Kashmir’s Anantnag district. Witnesses said locals were protesting against the alleged atrocities by Army in the area. “The Army had entered into the residential houses and broke windowpanes of dozens of houses. The atrocities triggered protests followed by clashes,” they said.

“The Army resorted to indiscriminate firing in which a boy Amir Yousuf Ganai, 15, s/o Muhammad Yousuf of Naidpora, Larkipora sustained a bullet injury. He was brought dead to district hospital Anantnag.”

Four others also sustained bullet injuries in the Army firing while seven others were beaten and then hospitalized.

Talking to Greater Kashmir, the Army admitted that the boy got killed in firing by its soldiers. “We regret the killing of a local boy. The Army men came under heavy stone pelting at Larkipora, forcing us to resort to firing. The killing is unfortunate,” an army official said.

Reports said clashes and protests erupted against the killing of the boy at Larkipora where protestors set ablaze the house of a local Sajad Ahmed, who works with Army.   Locals said Sajad was part of soldiers who allegedly resorted to ransacking of residential houses in the area.

Reports said Army also allegedly broke windowpanes of many houses in Dialgam village.
Massive protests erupted at Anantnag district late in the evening. Locals said earlier in the day, strict curbs were in place across the town.

Protests were going on in Pampore area of Pulwama district, when this report was filed.

In Tral, reports said, people took out series of pro-freedom rallies in various places. Clashes were reported from Muran Chowk Pulwama while a protest march was held from Ganaipora to Batpora in Shopian where forces intercepted the rally near an Army camp and resorted to tear-gas shelling. Late night reports said protests were also held in Bijbehara, Koimoh, Khudwani, Redwani and other villages of Anantnag and Kulgam districts.

SRINAGAR

Stringent curbs were in place across Srinagar with spools of concertina wire placed on all the main roads. Police had blocked all main roads in city centre near Jehangir Chowk, Ghanta Ghar, Residency Road, Dalgate, Rajbagh and other areas.

Similar restrictions were in place across old Srinagar. “They (forces) didn’t even allow ambulances to move,” a doctor who was waiting for a vehicle to reach SMHS hospital said.

Witnesses said heavy deployment was in place in uptown and old city areas to prevent pro-freedom rallies from taking place.

Reports said late evening clashes were reported from Lasjan, Soiteng, Batamaloo, Bemina, Chattabal, Rajouri Kadal, Saraf Kadal, Nowhatta, Safa Kadal, Kaka Sarai, and other areas of the city. Reports of torch processions being held poured in from Nowgam area. Similar reports came in from Hyderpora and Rambagh areas.

NORTH KASHMIR

An all-women protest rally was taken out in Ajas area of Bandipora district. The rally marched through all big and small roads, lanes and by-lanes.

Amid pro-freedom and anti-India slogans, the protesters demanded an immediate end to civilian killings in Kashmir. The rally concluded peacefully.

Meanwhile, people staged a peaceful protest at Gulshan Chowk and Nowpora Chowk of the district. A complete shutdown was observed amid the strict curfew for the 39th consecutive day in Sumbal and Hajin areas of the district. Reports said night protests were witnessed in Onangam, Kaloosa, Batpora, Nowpora, and other areas of Bandipore district while clashes were reported from Kaloosa and Nathpora areas.

Reports said in Baramulla district, strict curbs were in place while clashes were reported from Azadgunj and Palhallan areas in the evening.

In Sopore, people, including traders’ community staged a peaceful sit-in against the civilian killings.
Reports of evening clashes poured in from Batpora, Arampora, Tujjar Sharief, main chowk, Krankshivan and other areas of Sopore.

Reports said clashes were witnessed in Lalpora, (Lolab), Sogam, Takipora, and other areas. A peaceful protest was held in Kupwara and Handwara towns against the civilian killings. Reports said an all-women rally was held in Kupwara town that ended peacefully.

(With additional reporting Khalid Gul, from Altaf Baba, M A Dar,  Ejaz-ul-Haq Bhat, Ghulam Muhammad)

அவுஸ்ரேலியாவின் சனத்தொகைக் கணக்கெடுப்பில் நீக்கப்பட்டது தமிழீழம்

அவுஸ்ரேலியாவின் சனத்தொகைக் கணக்கெடுப்பில் நீக்கப்பட்டது தமிழீழம்

அவுஸ்ரேலியாவில் நடத்தப்படும் தேசிய சனத்தொகைக் கணக்கெடுப்பில்,பிறந்த நாடு என்ற கேள்விக்கு அளிக்கப்பட்டிருந்த தமிழீழம் என்ற தெரிவு விடை, இலங்கை தூதரகத்தின் அழுத்தத்தின் பேரில் நீக்கப்பட்டதாக தகவல்கள் தெரிவிக்கின்றன.

அவுஸ்ரேலிய புள்ளிவிபரப் பிரிவினால் தேசிய சனத்தொகைக் கணக்கெடுப்பு இணையத்தளம் மூலம் நடத்தப்பட்டு வருகிறது.

இதில்,' பிறந்த நாடு' என்ற கேள்விக்கான பதில்களில் பல்வேறு அங்கீகரிக்கப்பட்ட மற்றும் அங்கீகரிக்கப்படாத நாடுகள் வரிசைப்படுத்தப்பட்டிருந்தன. அதில் தமிழீழமும் உள்ளடக்கப்பட்டிருந்தது.

இதனால் அவுஸ்ரேலியாவில் உள்ள ஈழத் தமிழர்கள் தமிழீழம் என்று தமது பிறந்த இடத்தை குறிப்பிடத் தொடங்கினர்.

இதையடுத்து, கடந்த 6ஆம் ,7ஆம் நாள்களில், கன்பராவில் உள்ள இலங்கைத் தூதரகத்துக்கு பெருமளவு தொலைபேசி அழைப்புகளும், மின்னஞ்சல்களும் வரத் தொடங்கின.

வாரஇறுதி விடுமுறைக்குப் பின்னர், முதலாவது வேலை நாளான கடந்த 9ஆம் நாள், கன்பராவில் உள்ள இலங்கைத்  தூதரகம் துரித நடவடிக்கையில் இறங்கியது.

அவுஸ்ரேலிய வெளிவிவகார மற்றும் வர்த்தக திணைக்களத்திடமும், அவுஸ்ரேலிய புள்ளிவிபரவியல் பிரிவிடமும் எதிர்ப்புத் தெரிவிக்கப்பட்டது.

இதனையடுத்து, அவுஸ்ரேலியாவுக்கான இலங்கைத்  தூதுவர் ஸ்கந்தகுமார் அவுஸ்ரேலிய புள்ளிவிபரவியல் பிரிவுடன் நேரடியாகப் பேசினார்.

விடுதலைப் புலிகள் அமைப்பு அவுஸ்ரேலியாவில் தீவிரவாத அமைப்பாக பட்டியலிடப்பட்டுள்ள நிலையில், அதிகாரபூர்வ இணையத்தளத்தில் தமிழீழம் என்ற தெரிவு எவ்வாறு இடம்பெற்றது என்று அவுஸ்ரேலிய புள்ளிவிபரவியல் பிரிவிடம் அவர்கேள்வி எழுப்பியுள்ளார்.

தமிழீழம் என்ற பதம், அவுஸ்ரேலிய அரசின் அதிகாரபூர்வ இணையத்தளத்தில் இடம்பெற்றிருப்பதை ஏற்றுக் கொள்ள முடியாது என்றும் அவர் குறிப்பிட்டார்.

இந்த நிலையில் அவுஸ்ரேலிய வெளிவிவகார அமைச்சு தமிழீழத்தை நீக்குவதாக கடந்த 9ஆம் நாள் இலங்கை தூதுவருக்கு உறுதி அளித்தது, இதற்கமைய அன்று பிற்பகல் 2.30 மணியளவில், தமிழீழம் நீக்கப்பட்டது.