Russian President Putin hosts expanded BRICS summit

 

"This is an association of states that work together based on common values, a common vision of development and, most importantly, the principle of taking into account each other's interests," -Putin

KAZAN, Russia, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Russia wants the BRICS summit to showcase the rising clout of the non-Western world, but Moscow's partners from China, India, Brazil and the Arab world are urging President Vladimir Putin to find a way to end the war in Ukraine.

The BRICS group now accounts for 45% of the world's population and 35% of its economy, based on purchasing power parity, though China accounts for over half of its economic might.

Putin, who is cast by the West as a war criminal, told reporters from BRICS nations that "BRICS does not put itself into opposition to anyone", and that the shift in the drivers of global growth was simply a fact.

"This is an association of states that work together based on common values, a common vision of development and, most importantly, the principle of taking into account each other's interests," he said

The BRICS summit takes place as global finance chiefs gather in Washington amid war in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, a flagging Chinese economy and worries that the U.S. presidential election could ignite new trade battles.

Putin, who ordered troops into Ukraine in 2022 after eight years of fighting in eastern Ukraine, was peppered with questions by BRICS reporters about the prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

BRICS' share of global GDP is forecast to rise to 37% by the end of this decade while the share accounted for by the Group of Seven major Western economies will decline to about 28% from 30% this year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.

PUTIN SAYS HE WILL NOT GIVE UP SEIZED PARTS OF UKRAINE

Putin's answer was, in short, that Moscow would not trade away the four regions of eastern Ukraine that it says are now part of Russia, even though parts of them remain outside its control, and that it wanted its long-term security interests taken into account in Europe.

Two Russian sources said that, while there was increasing talk in Moscow of a possible ceasefire agreement, there was nothing concrete yet - and that the world was awaiting the result of the Nov. 5 presidential election in the United States.

Russia, which is advancing, controls about one fifth of Ukraine, including Crimea which it seized and unilaterally annexed in 2014, about 80% of the Donbas - a coal-and-steel zone comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk regions - and over 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Putin said the West had now realised that Russia would be victorious, but that he was open to talks based on draft ceasefire agreements reached in Istanbul in April 2022.

On the eve of the BRICS summit, Putin met with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for informal talks that went on until midnight at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow. 

XI AND MODI ATTENDING SUMMIT, ILLNESS KEEPS LULA AWAY

Putin has praised both Sheikh Mohammed and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who will not attend the summit in Kazan, for their mediation efforts over Ukraine.

"I assure you that we will continue to work in this direction," Sheikh Mohammed told Putin. "We are ready to make any efforts to resolve crises and in the interests of peace, in the interests of both sides."

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend, though Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva cancelled his trip following medical advice to temporarily avoid long-haul flights after a head injury at home that caused a minor brain hemorrhage.

The acronym BRIC was coined in 2001 by then-Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill in a research paper that underlined the massive growth potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China this century.

Russia, India and China began to meet more formally, eventually adding Brazil, then South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has yet to formally join.

BRICS' share of global GDP is forecast to rise to 37% by the end of this decade while the share accounted for by the Group of Seven major Western economies will decline to about 28% from 30% this year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.

Russia is seeking to convince BRICS countries to build an alternative platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions.

But divisions abound inside BRICS. China and India, the top purchasers of Russian oil, have difficult relations, while there is little love lost between Arab nations and Iran.

 _____________

Hosting BRICS Summit of World Leaders, Russia Shows West That It’s Not Isolated

By Henry Meyer, S'thembile Cele and Simone Iglesias / Bloomberg

October 22, 2024 The TIME

President Vladimir Putin will play host to Russia’s biggest gathering of world leaders since the invasion of Ukraine and use the BRICS summit to show the U.S. and its allies that he’s no pariah.

With Russian troops advancing in eastern Ukraine and evidence of growing war fatigue among some of Kyiv’s allies, the Kremlin is seizing its opportunity to cast Putin as standing up to the West in attempting to reshape the global order. The U.S. and its Group of Seven partners dismiss the argument, though it’s a message that resonates with some countries of the emerging world.

Leaders of 32 countries, as well as top officials of regional organizations and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, will attend the three-day summit starting Tuesday in Kazan, Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa are due to join Putin alongside leaders of the new BRICS members, Iran, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia. Putin plans bilateral meetings with many of them, as well as with guests such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sunday canceled his plans to attend the summit after suffering a head injury in an accident at his home. Officials said he’ll participate by video link.

Even as the grouping attracts growing interest as a political and economic counterweight to the West, tensions are simmering over its direction and influence. Members are split over efforts to reduce reliance on the dollar as a global reserve currency, and on the wisdom of continued expansion of the group.

While BRICS favors greater use of national currencies in bilateral trade, members including India reject attempts to promote China’s yuan as an alternative reserve currency.

Russia has produced a summit report outlining possible changes to cross-border payments among BRICS countries aimed at circumventing the global financial system, though it acknowledges the proposals are mainly to promote discussion. They include developing a network of commercial lenders to conduct transactions in local currencies as well as establishing direct links between central banks.

Still, other BRICS states don’t have the same incentives to escape the dollar-based system as Russia, whose economy is straining under sweeping sanctions imposed over Putin’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

Russia wants to push for a de-dollarized payment system at the summit, which China regards as too ambitious, said Wang Yiwei, director of Renmin University’s Center for European Studies in Beijing. 

The meeting is the first since BRICS agreed to extend membership to six additional nations at last year’s summit in South Africa. But Argentina pulled out under its new President Javier Milei and Saudi Arabia has remained non-committal.

Nations ranging from Malaysia and Thailand to Nicaragua and NATO-member Turkey are eager to join BRICS, though there’s unlikely to be an agreement on enlargement at the Russia summit. 

India is against further expansion for now and supports a category of “BRICS partner countries” without voting rights because it wants to steer the group away from becoming an anti-U.S. body dominated by China and Russia, Indian officials said on condition of anonymity because the issue is sensitive.

Brazil and South Africa support India’s view, said officials in the two countries. Any bid to dilute South Africa’s influence by inviting Nigeria or Morocco into BRICS will be resisted, said the South African officials.

The UAE completely rejects any attempt to present BRICS membership as a sign that the Global South is in opposition to the West, according to a person familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified discussing internal policy. The Gulf state has very good relations with countries in the West including the U.S., according to another official.

BRICS “expansion is a clear sign that the global balance of power is shifting,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a Hong-Kong based economist who’s a senior research fellow at the Bruegel think tank. “But the future of the grouping is uncertain, given its heavy economic dependence on China and the deteriorating sentiment toward China among its members.”

Jim O’Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist who first coined the BRIC acronym in 2001, said expansion had made the group “highly political.” He told a forum in London in November: “I am not sure what fruitful purpose it serves other than being a club that the U.S. is not a part of.”

BRICS’ clout is growing. Its nine members account for 26% of the world economy and 45% of the world’s population versus the G-7’s 44% of global gross domestic product and 10% of its inhabitants. Brazil will host next month’s G-20 summit, following India’s presidency last year and ahead of South Africa’s in 2025.

Putin stayed away from last year’s BRICS summit after South Africa warned it would have to comply with an arrest warrant against him for alleged war crimes in Ukraine issued by the International Criminal Court in March last year.

While the warrant has limited Putin’s travels, the gathering of so many foreign leaders in Russia underscores the readiness of many, particularly from Global South states, to continue meeting him in defiance of the U.S. and its allies.

The fact so many countries want to join BRICS indicates growing demand for international ties independent of the West, said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a think tank that advises the Kremlin. 

“For now, everyone just wants to see what it can gain from this,” he said⍐.

US pressures India for quick accountability in Sikh separatist murder plot

Exclusive: US pressures India for quick accountability in Sikh separatist murder plot

WASHINGTON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - U.S. officials have told their Indian counterparts they want a speedy result and more accountability after their investigation into Indian involvement in a foiled murder plot against a Sikh activist in the United States, according to a U.S. official.

An Indian Enquiry Committee visited Washington last week to discuss India's own investigations after the Justice Department alleged an Indian intelligence official had directed plans to assassinate dual U.S.-Canada citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Sikh separatist, last year.

"We've communicated really clearly that the U.S. government isn't going to feel fully satisfied until we see that meaningful accountability takes place," said a U.S. official who declined to be named. "We have been emphasizing that we hope that India will move as quickly as possible through their investigative process."

The Indian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Washington's message to Indian officials has not been previously reported.

Last week, an unsealed indictment showed that the United States had charged Vikash Yadav, described as a former officer in India's Research and Analysis Wing spy service, with directing the plot against a Sikh separatist in New York City.

The indictment alleged that beginning in May 2023, Yadav, described as an employee of the Indian government at the time, worked with others in India and abroad to direct a plot against Pannun.

The accusations have tested Washington's relations with India, which the Biden administration sees as a potential counterbalance to China's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.

"India remains an incredibly important and valuable strategic partner," the U.S. official said. "We also have to have trust and an ability to work through very difficult issues like this transparently."

India has labeled Sikh separatists as "terrorists" and threats to its security. Sikh separatists demand an independent homeland known as Khalistan, which would be carved out of India. An insurgency in India during the 1980s and 1990s killed tens of thousands.

Pannun, the Sikh separatist, has alleged that Yadav was a "mid-tier soldier" assigned the task of organizing the assassination by higher-level Indian officials.

India has said little publicly since announcing in November 2023 it would formally investigate the allegations, and it has separately continued a diplomatic dispute with Canada over the June 2023 assassination of another Sikh leader.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in September his country's intelligence agency was pursuing credible allegations that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government was behind the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh separatist.

India has denied involvement in both incidents⍐.

Security issues in Starlink’s satellite-based internet service

Security issues in Starlink’s satellite-based internet service

Starlink is set to enter Sri Lanka and India

October 22, 2024 Daily News LK

Some experts have warned countries about the security risks associated with the Starlink satellite-based internet service.

Starlink, a subsidiary of the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX), based in California, US, is to set up shop in Sri Lanka and India soon. While the deal with Sri Lanka is through, with the company getting a Sri Lankan license effective from August 12, 2024, the deal with India only recently crossed a major hurdle: a decision on the way spectrum will be awarded.

It was only recently that India decided to assign spectrum (or electromagnetic frequencies) on the basis of an “administrative decision” and not an “auction.” This decision came shortly after the Starlink owner, Elon Musk, criticised the auction route proposed by Mukesh Ambani, his rival in India. Ambani owns the Indian telecom giant, Reliance Jio.

Musk had argued that it is international practice (as per the International Telecommunication Union regulations) to award the spectrum administratively rather than by auction. But Reliance Jio’s Ambani argued in favour of an auction “to ensure a level playing field.”

The Indian Telecom Minister, Jyotiraditya Scindia, rejected Ambani’s plea. He announced that spectrum would be allocated administratively “as per Indian laws,” and that its pricing will be “determined by the telecom watchdog.” Scindia further said that deviating from this approach to conduct an auction would set India apart from the rest of the world.

Huge Indian market

Thus, Musk won hands down, and Ambani lost a huge market. The Indian internet market is projected to show a 36% annual growth. The market is expected to reach US$ 1.9 billion by 2030. India now has 42 million wired broadband internet users and 904 million telecom users on networks like 4G and 5G. India is the world’s second-biggest telecom market after China.

However, internet penetration is still inadequate. Penetration stood at only 52.4% in 2024. There are still 25,000 villages without internet, and even within cities, many areas don’t have fibre-based fast internet connections.

Therefore, it can be argued that satellite-based internet will definitely help provide internet coverage to every part of India. But there are attendant security risks.

Security risks

Indian nationalists are worried that India’s security may be compromised, given Starlink’s close links with the American armed forces. Telecommunication is a very sensitive domain in India. India has barred Chinese telecom companies from entering this sector, fearing penetration into Indian systems.

Sensitivity to security is so great that a permit is needed even to use a satellite phone. Sometime ago, The Hindu reported that a fisherman from Kerala and a foreigner were arrested for using a satellite phone, the former out in the open sea and the latter in a remote area on land.

As per Indian social media, nationalists ask the following questions:

“Would India be able to control Starlink when India-US relations deteriorate? Would Starlink cease its services on the orders of the US Government? Would Indian regulators be able to keep an eye on the use of the Starlink system and ensure that it is not used for espionage or for tampering with vital Indian communications?”

At present, India-US relations are troubled. The US has alleged the involvement of Indian intelligence personnel in an attempt to murder a US citizen of Indian origin, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, in New York last year. In India, Pannun is a banned Sikh separatist and terrorist. But in the US, he is a citizen whose rights are inviolable. The case is now in a New York court, and an Indian suspect is in custody in the US.

In addition, India has differences with the US over Ukraine, Iran, Russia, QUAD, and now Bangladesh too. Indo-US relations could deteriorate. In that case, the question that is asked is: What role could Starlink play given its links with the US military?

Technical Threats

In his paper entitled “Cyber Threat Landscape Analysis for Starlink: Assessing Risks and Mitigation Strategies in the Global Satellite Internet Infrastructure,” Karwan Mustafa Kareem of the University of Sulaimani in Iraq, says that the technical dangers from Starlink are the following: There could be Denial-of-Service (DoS); Man-in-the-Middle (MitM); Jamming; Spoofing; and Physical tampering.

Kareem emphasises the importance of encryption algorithms, authentication protocols, and intrusion detection systems in safeguarding satellite networks against unauthorised access and data breaches.

He stresses the need for continuous monitoring and threat intelligence sharing to detect and respond to emerging threats effectively. Countries using Starlink satellite-based internet service have to make sure that they have all these safeguards in place, Kareem says.

India had asked Starlink about its shareholders to know if any country in India’s neighbourhood with which it was at odds was on the list. India was particularly worried about China and Pakistan, the latter believed to be in cahoots with China. Starlink replied that no neighbourhood entity is a shareholder.

Links with US Military

SpaceX and Starlink have very close ties with the US military. Websites like www.spacenews.org have regularly reported the growing ties between SpaceX/Starlink and the various arms of the US military.

In March 2017, the US Air Force announced that it had awarded SpaceX a US$ 96.5 million contract to support the launch of a next-generation global positioning system satellite called GPS III.

In February 2019, the US Air Force’s Strategic Development Planning and Experimentation Office signed a US$ 28 million contract with SpaceX requiring the company to conduct military service demonstrations and verification using the Starlink constellation.

In May 2019, Defence Experimentation Using the Commercial Space Internet, or DEUCSI, tried out the Starlink satellite broadband services and demonstrated download speeds of 610 megabits per second into the cockpit of a C-12J Huron twin-engine turboprop aircraft.

In May 2020, the US Army said it would experiment using Starlink broadband to move data across military networks.

In October 2020, SpaceX received a contract worth more than US$ 149 million from the Space Development Agency (SDA), tasking the company with building a new satellite for the US military capable of tracking and providing early warnings of hypersonic missile launches.

SpaceX launched the Falcon 9 rocket carrying more than 20 tons of payload into Low-Earth Orbit. Controlled recovery and soft landing of the first stage of the rocket and its reuse were achieved, greatly reducing launch costs. SpaceX has also undertaken the development and launch of the Dragon spacecraft.

Yan Jiajie and Yu Nanping say in their September 2024 paper in the Journal of International Security Studies that each Starlink satellite can transmit high-definition pictures and videos it takes over a war zone to front-line commanders.

The huge amount of data collected by UAVs over the battlefield will no longer need to be compressed locally, but will be transmitted in raw form directly to a command centre on the other side of the earth via Starlink, and then analysed by supercomputers to extract useful data and analyse the battlefield situation more precisely, enabling commanders in the war zone to make decisions more quickly and accurately.

Precision Targeting

On January 3, 2020, the US used a UAV to take out Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani. On November 27 of the same year, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of Iran’s nuclear programme and its chief nuclear scientist, was assassinated near Tehran.

“These actions were made possible by the global high-speed communication and space-air coordination capabilities achieved via satellite networks. If Starlink is used on a large scale in the military field in the future, it will further enhance the US military’s satellite communication and unmanned combat capabilities, and be a threat to the national security of rival States,” Yan Jiajie and Yu Nanping point out in their paper.

They also say that the growing deployment of Starlink satellites in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) will give the company control over a large amount of data, challenging the security of other countries.

Analyst Zhou Yuzhe points out that since the International Telecommunication Union’s principle for obtaining orbits and spectrum is “first come, first served,” Starlink will corner large amounts of orbital and spectrum resources, leaving less room for others.