Charting the rise of Germany’s far-right AfD party

 EXPLAINER

Charting the rise of Germany’s far-right AfD party

The AfD doubles its share of the vote from 10.4 percent in 2021 to 20.8 percent, becoming Germany’s second largest political party

By Hanna Duggal 24 Feb 2025 AJ

In a historic shift in Germany’s political landscape, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to become the second largest party in the Bundestag, winning 20.8 percent of the vote in federal elections.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was the biggest vote-getter on Sunday, winning 28.6 percent alongside its sister party, the Christian Social Union. The CDU has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, which presents a challenge in creating a stable government.

The AfD has articulated several key policies, which have proved popular with many German voters. They include:

• Immigration controls, including the rejection of asylum applications and “remigration” initiatives that would deport foreign nationals
• Economic overhauls, such as abandoning the euro and reintroducing the German mark
• Foreign policy changes, such as leaving the NATO alliance
• Reversing energy transitions, such as dismantling existing wind turbines and returning to nuclear energy

Who is the AfD leader Alice Weidel?

Alice Weidel, a former finance professional with a doctorate in economics, joined the AfD in 2013 and quickly rose to leadership posts. Initially a eurosceptic party, the AfD shifted towards nationalism and strict immigration policies with Weidel at the forefront.

Weidel capitalised on voter frustration, particularly in the former East Germany, by opposing immigration, green energy policies and globalisation. Using social media and high-profile interviews, including with tech billionaire Elon Musk, to expand her influence, Weidel’s “remigration” and nationalist policies have garnered her and the AfD attention.

AfD co-leader and chancellor candidate Alice Weidel waves a German flag
at the AfD party headquarters in Berlin, Germany, on February 23, 2025,
after the German election results showed her party doubling its share of the votes
[Michael Probst/AP Photo]

How has the AfD performed in the past?

The party’s electoral gains mirror rising dissatisfaction among voters on migration, the economy and mainstream parties.

Initially formed as a eurosceptic party, the AfD secured 4.7 percent of the votes in its first federal elections in 2013, falling below the 5 percent bar required to enter the Bundestag.

In the 2017 federal elections, the party gained 12.6 percent of votes and entered the Bundestag with 94 seats. It was the third largest party in the German parliament, its popularity driven by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 2015 refugee policy, which allowed more than a million asylum seekers into Germany.

While still performing strongly in eastern Germany, the AfD’s vote share dropped in the 2021 elections to 10.3 percent, making it the fifth largest party in the Bundestag. The party struggled to maintain its anti-immigration rhetoric with concern at the time focused more on the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Sunday’s elections, the AfD doubled its vote share from 2021 as the election campaign focused on immigration and the economy.

Where did the AfD perform best?

In Sunday’s elections, the AfD won votes in almost every single German constituency.

Historically, the AfD performs well among voters in eastern Germany due to post-reunification disparities that have emerged as the east has lagged behind western Germany in economic development and employment opportunities.

The AfD has also done well off the back of its antiestablishment rhetoric with mainstream political parties less deeply rooted in eastern Germany due to its communist past.

In a couple of western German constituencies, the AfD won but was only marginally ahead of the second most popular parties in those areas.

That said, the Left party has also found success in eastern Germany despite declining support in recent years. The Left evolved from the Socialist Unity Party, which ruled East Germany until reunification in 1990 and has stronger ties to older voters there.

Will the AfD be part of Germany’s coalition?

Mainstream parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD because of its nationalist policies and far-right tendencies. As such, Germany’s coalition options are now limited essentially to one, given the voting results.

A grand coalition including the CDU, the CSU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is the most likely option with CDU leader Friedrich Merz as chancellor.

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NOW: Trump and Macron hold joint news conference

 

video

From CNN staff

US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron are holding a joint news conference Monday after their bilateral meeting earlier this afternoon in the Oval Office.

The two leaders also participated in a call with G7 summit leaders.

Macron’s visit to the White House today comes on the third year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. European leaders are rushing to try to reclaim a central role for themselves and for Ukraine after they were cut out of US-Russia talks on ending the war.🔺

Germany's AfD, Left win enough seats to block changes to debt brake

By Maria Martinez and Christian Kraemer FebruSummary

Summary

• Far-right, far-left parties win third of seats in election
• Means they can try to block increased defence spending
• Investors cheer conservatives' win, tough coalition talks ahead
• Business leaders urge swift formation of new coalition

BERLIN, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left Party jointly secured one third of seats in the new parliament, enough to block a loosening of Germany's debt brake - a mechanism some investors and political parties say stymies economic growth.

The euro and German stocks rallied as investors welcomed the strong likelihood of a conservative-led coalition following Sunday's election, while German business leaders called for the swift formation of a new government, saying Europe's largest economy could not afford to waste any time as companies suffer from high costs, red tape and rising foreign competition.

Markets are now focused on the chances of reforming or scrapping the debt brake. This mechanism limits budget deficits to 0.35% of gross domestic product, though that excludes top-ups of the special fund for defence or creation of any new fund.

However, both the AfD and the Left oppose military aid to Ukraine, and with their new-found strength in the Bundestag lower house they could veto increased defence contributions.

Leaders of the Left Party said on Monday they supported a reform of Germany's debt brake but on condition that this was not used to hike defence spending.

"We have to invest in social infrastructure, and if that doesn't happen, then we won't vote for it either," said party co-chief Ines Schwerdtner. "We will not vote for rearmament."

Germany's outgoing parliament still has the majority needed to reform the debt brake before a new coalition is formed but such a move by the current assembly is "unrealistic", Finance Minister Joerg Kukies told Reuters in an interview on Monday.

"First of all, there's far too little time, and secondly, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional amendments were now made with an old majority," Kukies said.

German conservatives under likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz have vowed to move quickly to try to form a coalition after winning the most votes in Sunday's national election.

The most likely outcome is a coalition of Merz's conservative bloc and the Social Democrats (SPD), who came in third, after the AfD surged to a historic second place.

Germany's Ifo economic institute stressed the urgency of forming a new government.

"The German economy is in waiting," said its president Clemens Fuest, after Ifo's business climate index came in at 85.2 for February, flat on the previous month.

INFURIATING TRUMP?

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said the new coalition may struggle to find the fiscal space to raise spending on defence while also easing the tax burden for workers and firms.

"A failure to ramp up military spending could get Germany into deep trouble with its NATO partners," Schmieding said. "By infuriating U.S. President Donald Trump, it could also add to the risk of a U.S.-EU trade war."

Economists said enlisting the cooperation of the Left would prove very difficult for Merz.

"The Left would like to ditch the debt brake. However, its agenda - soak the rich, spend more on welfare and less on defence- is the very opposite of the Merz agenda," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.

In order to increase defence spending from the current 2% of GDP to 4%, for example, the federal government would have to cut non-defence spending by a quarter if this were not to be financed by additional debt, said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank.

Kraemer said a Merz-led government might find that its only politically feasible option is to suspend the debt brake by invoking an "extraordinary emergency situation", which is possible with a simple parliamentary majority.🔺