The Myth of India as an Upcoming Asian Economic Powerhouse

The Myth of India as an Upcoming Asian Economic Powerhouse. Rising Poverty and Social InequalityBy Junaid Ghoto
Global Research, December 13, 2016
Region: Asia
Theme: Global Economy, Poverty & Social Inequality

A common myth around the world is that, India is developing country at a very rapid pace and going to be a powerhouse in Asia soon. Some even argue we should learn from them and some argue independence should have never happened and we would have been a better off with India rather than independent. And even some pessimist especially Pakistani and Bangladeshi people regret the independence in 1947 and common chorus can be heard “look where India has reached today and where we are”.

Regret or not, but it is important to see where India stands today, the idea to write regarding this is to differentiate the illusion from fact and give reason so the sane understanding follows. A nation is called developing not because of its population, or defense budget, but how good the people fare in that country; it is about the human development and economic growth which include improving education and health by having less people as possible under the poverty line and high incomes per capita of citizen in the country, this will come when the state will have a sound economic system.
India is no doubt one of the biggest democracy in the world; because it has the highest population, Simple! (China highly populist, and officially “communist”). India is the second biggest nation in the world in terms of population and seventh largest in terms of area. According to the IMF as of 2015, the Indian economically nominally worth US$ 2.182 trillion, it, it’s the eleventh largest economy in terms of market exchange rates at US$ 8.027 trillion, third largest by PPP, with an annual GDP growth of last decade’s 5.8%.[1]

These numbers in retrospect are nonsense which feed the illusion to the general public so they can keep on living like they are in a hope that their life will get better.

These numbers do not represent the true picture of the country, not only India`s but any country. Like GDP can be a good indicator, but the real measure is GDP per capita. Which measures how a single person achieves the share of income among its citizens. When it comes to India the GDP is $2.182 trillion, but per capita income is only $1581 which is not much higher than Bangladesh`s $1086 and Pakistan’s $1316 per capita, but less among many African countries, like Nigeria $3203, South Africa $6,482, Zambia $1721, Sudan $1875, Namibia $5408, Ghana $1441, Djibouti $1813, Botswana $7123 and many more to mention here.[2] In fact, India is like “ticking time bomb” by 2026 the world population will be 1.5 billion largest in the world and the economy is not growing enough to meet the demands to create 20 million jobs per year.[3]

Yes, I know India is part of BRICS and they have announced in creating their own kind of bank but then what? India still owes money to the IMF; their public debt to GDP is nearly 70%,[4] Likewise, India is worst in terms of BRIC countries when it comes to GDP per capita, human development, education, poverty and so forth. India is lagging behind in BRIC countries. And Yes, then there is IT, the huge investments in India by the foreign companies just because those corporation can have cheap labor rather than paying their people in home countries with high wages. The beauty of globalization which no body mentions and no one talks all they care to show people the random numbers and apathy of people to consent without barely eliciting a yawn.

One of the main hurdles in the progress of India is poverty, poverty which should have been brought under control, but in India it is more or less same ratios of poverty post-independence.[5]

The figure shows the total population every decade with poverty in percentage and how much the poverty has declined in India, the percentage may have decreased, but the total number of people living under the poverty line has been more or less same.

To combat poverty the country introduced anti-poverty policies, to help people living under the poverty line but according to World Bank report in some states more than 50% were misclassified as poor in other words they were not poor but reaped full benefits from these polices, but still by no means can these policies achieve their true objective, even without corruption free. How anti-poverty policy can and will work which make the poor`s dependents on government`s mercy rather than concentrating on human development by educating poor people, training and developing them so they can take care of themselves, the government chose spoon feeding. Human development is not alien Jerry Sternin owner of an NGO based in the United States helped Vietnam reduce malnourishment in 1990s without bringing a single dollar in the country, his work was finished in 6 months or so. Seeing good things in anti-poverty policy is like a finding a needle in a needle box with a needle.

The figure shows two very important things how India fare among BRIC countries and Second the working poor in India out of Total Employed working in India. Many poor people are not those who don’t have job, in fact some poor are with jobs but their wages are low compared to International standards and it becomes difficult for them to increase their living standards.

The mistake which people generally make is when they start comparing India with Pakistan or Bangladesh, this is incorrect for many reasons, India is an enormous big country, its market share, volume is big, its population is big it should be compared more with China. China went in more difficult level in combating poverty than India, but being a communist, it has reduced poverty effectively. It’s also true that in China the gap between Rich and Poor is widening but better to have that gap rather than letting your people live in poverty.

Since 1980 China has significantly brought people out of poverty where India has failed to achieve substantial reduction

In retrospect, not in even the next two decades, India can reduce poverty, for many reasons; first, the policies they have introduced which I have discussed earlier are still in practice. Second, the focus of these policies as I have mentioned earlier is not sincere and not focused on human development; the nuisance still and will continue. Third, even they all of a sudden change the policy, let’s say tomorrow and bring fair policy with no corruption; even then it will take decades to achieve and reduce levels of impoverishment. This melancholy reality gives the notion of hubris and musing thinking that prevails in the country which is heedless in their direction unfortunately.
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Further Reading
Nelson, D. (2013, April 18). India has one third of world’s poorest, says World Bank. The Telegraph
World Bank report (2011). Social protection for changing India vol 1
Statistics of GDP on different countries by World Bank (2015) retrieved from:
 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015 – Report for selected counties and subjects. International Monetary Fund (IMF).Retrieved from:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=49&pr.y=8&sy=2013&ey=2020&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=534&s=NGDPD%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPGDP%2CPPPPC&grp=0&a=
Report for Selected Countries and Subjects: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, International Monetary Fund, April 2011. Retrieve from:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=25&pr.y=15&sy=1991&ey=2012&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=512%2C558%2C513%2C564%2C566%2C524%2C534%2C578%2C536%2C548&s=NGDPDPC&grp=0&a=
United Nations (2014, 2015) Human Development Report.
Statistics on India (2016) India Government debt to GDP, trending economics retrieved from:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/government-debt-to-gdp
 Notes
[1] World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015 – Report for selected counties and subjects. International Monetary Fund (IMF).
[2] Statistics of GDP on different countries by World Bank (2015)
[3] Nelson, D. (2013, April 18). India has one third of world’s poorest, says World Bank. The Telegraph

[4] Statistics on India (2016) India Government debt to GDP, trending economics.
[5] Source: UN Department of Economic and Social affair’s 2012, Poverty MGNREGA Statistics, (2012)
Juan Ghoto is a recent graduate in public administration. writing on comparative development and human rights issues.
 
The original source of this article is Global Research
Copyright © Junaid Ghoto, Global Research, 2016

Aleppo hit by air strikes and shelling as evacuation stalls

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* There was no immediate indication when the Aleppo evacuation might take place but a pro-opposition TV station said it could be delayed until Thursday.

 * Turkey was in contact with Iran, Russia and the United States to try and ensure the evacuation of civilians and rebel fighters from Aleppo.

* People in eastern Aleppo packed their bags and burned personal belongings, fearing looting by the Syrian army and its Iranian-backed militia allies.

 * By taking full control of Aleppo, Assad has proved the power of his military coalition, aided by Russia's air force and an array of Shi'ite militias from across the region.

*United Nations voiced deep concern about reports it had received of Syrian soldiers and allied Iraqi fighters summarily shooting dead 82 people in recaptured east Aleppo districts. It accused them of "slaughter".

* The Syrian army has denied carrying out killings or torture among those captured, and Russia said on Tuesday rebels had "kept over 100,000 people in east Aleppo as human shields".

* "People are saying the troops have lists of families of fighters and are asking them if they had sons with the terrorists. (They are) then either left or shot and left to die," said Abu Malek al-Shamali

* "There are many corpses in Fardous and Bustan al-Qasr with no one to bury them,” he said.

*A crisis the United Nations said was a "complete meltdown of humanity". There were food and water shortages in rebel areas, with all hospitals closed.

Aleppo hit by air strikes and shelling as evacuation stalls
Reuters
Aleppo hit by air strikes, shelling as evacuation stalls (00:46)

By Laila Bassam, Tom Perry and Lisa Barrington | ALEPPO, Syria/BEIRUT

Plans to evacuate besieged rebel districts of Aleppo were under threat on Wednesday as renewed air strikes and shelling rocked the city.

Iran, one of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's main backers in the battle that has all but ended four years of rebel resistance in the city, imposed new conditions, saying it wanted the simultaneous evacuation of wounded from two villages besieged by rebel fighters, according to rebel and U.N. sources.

There was no sign of that happening. Insurgents fired shells at the two majority Shi'ite villages, Foua and Kefraya, in Idlib province west of Aleppo, causing some casualties, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

There was no immediate indication when the Aleppo evacuation might take place but a pro-opposition TV station said it could be delayed until Thursday.

A ceasefire brokered on Tuesday by Russia, Assad's most powerful ally, and Turkey was intended to end years of fighting in the city, giving the Syrian leader his biggest victory in more than five years of war.

But air strikes, shelling and gunfire erupted on Wednesday and Turkey accused government forces of breaking the truce. Syrian state television said rebel shelling had killed six people.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov predicted however that rebel resistance would last no more than two or three days. The defence ministry in Moscow said the rebels now controlled an enclave of only 2.5 square km (1 square mile).

Turkey was in contact with Iran, Russia and the United States to try and ensure the evacuation of civilians and rebel fighters from Aleppo.

Officials in the military alliance backing Assad could not be reached immediately for comment on why the evacuation, expected to start in the early hours of Wednesday, had stalled.

Nobody had left by dawn under the plan, according to a Reuters witness waiting at the departure point, where 20 buses stood with engines running but showed no sign of moving into rebel districts.
People in eastern Aleppo packed their bags and burned personal belongings, fearing looting by the Syrian army and its Iranian-backed militia allies.

U.N. war crimes investigators said the Syrian government bore the main responsibility for preventing any attacks and reprisals in eastern Aleppo and that it must hold to account any troops or allied forces committing violations.

In what appeared to be a separate development from the planned evacuation, the Russian defence ministry said 6,000 civilians and 366 fighters had left rebel-held districts over the past 24 hours.

A total of 15,000 people, including 4,000 rebel fighters, wanted to leave Aleppo, according to a media unit run by the Syrian government's ally Hezbollah.

RAPID ADVANCES

The evacuation plan was the culmination of two weeks of rapid advances by the Syrian army and its allies that drove insurgents back into an ever-smaller pocket of the city under intense air strikes and artillery fire.

By taking full control of Aleppo, Assad has proved the power of his military coalition, aided by Russia's air force and an array of Shi'ite militias from across the region.

Rebels have been supported by the United States, Turkey and Gulf monarchies, but the support they have enjoyed has fallen far short of the direct military backing given to Assad by Russia and Iran.
Russia's decision to deploy its air force to Syria 18 months ago turned the war in Assad's favor after rebel advances across western Syria. In addition to Aleppo, he has won back insurgent strongholds near Damascus this year.

The government and its allies have focused the bulk of their firepower on fighting rebels in western Syria rather than Islamic State, which this week managed to take back the ancient city of Palmyra, once again illustrating the challenge Assad faces reestablishing control over all Syria.

As the battle for Aleppo unfolded, global concern has risen over the plight of the 250,000 civilians who were thought to remain in its rebel-held eastern sector before the sudden army advance began at the end of November.

The rout of rebels in Aleppo sparked a mass flight of terrified civilians and insurgents in bitter weather, a crisis the United Nations said was a "complete meltdown of humanity". There were food and water shortages in rebel areas, with all hospitals closed.

"SHOT IN THEIR HOMES"

On Tuesday, the United Nations voiced deep concern about reports it had received of Syrian soldiers and allied Iraqi fighters summarily shooting dead 82 people in recaptured east Aleppo districts. It accused them of "slaughter".

The Syrian army has denied carrying out killings or torture among those captured, and Russia said on Tuesday rebels had "kept over 100,000 people in east Aleppo as human shields".

Fear stalked the city's streets. Some survivors trudged in the rain past dead bodies to the government-held west or the few districts still in rebel hands. Others stayed in their homes and awaited the Syrian army's arrival.

"People are saying the troops have lists of families of fighters and are asking them if they had sons with the terrorists. (They are) then either left or shot and left to die," said Abu Malek al-Shamali in Seif al-Dawla, one of the last rebel-held districts.

Terrible conditions were described by city residents.

Abu Malek al-Shamali, a resident in the rebel area, said dead bodies lay in the streets. "There are many corpses in Fardous and Bustan al-Qasr with no one to bury them,” he said.

(Reporting by Laila Bassam in Aleppo and Tom Perry, John Davison and Lisa Barrington in Beirut; Writing by Angus McDowall in Beirut; Editing by Giles Elgood)