Monday, 4 December 2023

Israel orders evacuations as onslaught on Gaza widens

 A total of 256 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since October 7, including six prisoners who died in Israeli custody.

The Israeli army’s assault is pushing further into the south of Gaza, leaving Palestinians little chance of safety.

AJ On 4 Dec 2023

Israel has ordered Palestinians to evacuate several more areas as it widens its bombardment of the Gaza Strip, killing hundreds.

The Israeli military declared on Monday via the social media site X that it was defining “safe areas” for Gaza civilians to minimise harm to them. However, hundreds more Palestinians have been killed since the onslaught resumed on Friday, and it is unclear where civilians might seek safety.

Al Jazeera journalists on the ground say it is difficult to heed the orders in real time, with nowhere safe remaining in the enclave.

Israel published a map on Friday, dividing Gaza into “evacuation zones” and asking people to follow their announcements for their safety. However, the maps, which include nearly 2,500 grids, have confused many, while unreliable internet and electricity make keeping updated a challenge.

On Monday, an update with three arrows pointing south was issued. The instruction came the day after the Israeli military said it had expanded its ground operation to all of Gaza, targeting “Hamas centres in all” of the enclave.

ENB Poster 051223


No safe place

The renewed bombardment follows the end on Friday of the seven-day pause in the fighting between Israeli forces and Hamas fighters, which had allowed an exchange of about 105 Israeli and foreign hostages held by Hamas for 240 Palestinian prisoners.

More than 15,500 people have been killed, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, in nearly two months of warfare that broke out after a Hamas cross-border raid on southern Israel on October 7 in which 1,200 Israelis were killed and about 240 taken hostage.

Intense air raids overnight killed more than 100 Palestinians, according to the Hamas authorities. That raises the death toll in Gaza since Saturday to more than 800.

Israel has also stepped up attacks on the city of Khan Younis in the south, which was previously designated as a safe area, leading thousands of displaced Palestinians to flee to the city.

“This comes as hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have fled their homes and have been displaced,” said Al Jazeera’s Hamdah Salhut, reporting from occupied East Jerusalem.

“While the Israelis are chalking up battle plans for the southern part of the Gaza Strip, the reality is that there is no safe place in Gaza at the end of day 58 of this war.

“It is worth noting that the Israeli military has not shown huge military achievements or accomplishments, but rather what we have seen is a dire humanitarian catastrophe that has unfolded inside of the Gaza Strip.”

Israel launches southern Gaza ground offensive as death toll soars

West Bank raids



Israeli security forces also continued their raids in the occupied West Bank overnight and early on Monday morning.

They targeted the cities and towns of Ramallah, Jenin, Silwad, Jaffna, Jalazoun, Qalqilya and Hebron, arresting dozens of people, according to the Palestinian Wafa news agency.

Palestinian officials told Al Jazeera that at least two Palestinians were killed in the morning during an Israeli army raid in Qalqilya in the north.

Israeli army radio confirmed that two “gunmen” were killed and one wounded following a raid in the city.

Local sources told Al Jazeera that both bodies were taken away by the Israeli forces.

Reporting from Hebron, Hoda Abdel-Hamid said it is a common practice and that Israeli authorities are holding the bodies of 25 Palestinians killed in raids since October 7.

More than 3,500 people have been arrested, she added, and the majority are being held without charges.

A total of 256 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since October 7, including six prisoners who died in Israeli custody.

Upcoming China-EU summit to increase mutual trust, address global challenges

 


China and the EU are partners, not rivals and our common interests far exceed differences.

By Chen Qingqing : Dec 04, 2023 

    As agreed between China and the EU, the 24th China-EU Summit will be held in Beijing on December 7, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying announced on Monday. Some experts believe that as it is the first face-to-face China-EU summit in the post-COVID period, the two sides will have in-depth and candid discussions on major issues and increase mutual trust in addressing global challenges. 

President Xi Jinping will meet with President of the European Council Charles Michel and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Premier Li Qiang, President Charles Michel and President Ursula von der Leyen will jointly chair the summit, the spokesperson said. 

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with diplomats from the Delegation of the EU to China and from EU member states on Monday, emphasizing that if China and Europe choose dialogue and cooperation, camp confrontation will not form; if China and Europe choose peace and stability, a new Cold War will not be ignited; if China and Europe choose openness and win-win cooperation, there will be hope for global development and prosperity. 

Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, called on the two sides to adhere to mutual respect, remain calm and pragmatic and stick to strategic thinking. 

China has always viewed the development of China-EU relations from a strategic height and long-term perspective, considering Europe an important pole in the process of multipolarization, supporting European integration, and supporting European strategic autonomy, Wang said.  

The 23rd China-EU summit took place in April 2022 when Chinese and EU leaders met via video link, and exchanged views on bilateral cooperation and the Ukraine crisis.

This year's summit coincides with the 20th anniversary of the China-EU comprehensive strategic partnership and the 25th anniversary of the China-EU Summit mechanism, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Monday. 

Xi mentioned many times that China and Europe are two major forces upholding world peace, two big markets promoting shared development, and two great civilizations promoting human progress. In his latest phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Xi said China and the EU should remain partners for mutually beneficial cooperation in a volatile and intertwined world.

China and the EU are partners, not rivals and our common interests far exceed differences. China hopes that the summit will play an important role by building on past achievements, enhance understanding and mutual trust through strategic communication, boost mutually beneficial cooperation through innovation, and discuss solutions through dialogue and consultation, the spokesperson said

President Xi Jinping

China and the EU are expected to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation through exploration and innovation, explore ideas to solve problems through dialogue and consultation, and work together to tackle global challenges, he said. 

China and the EU have resumed high-level exchanges in the post-COVID period since the end of the 2022 and maintained the momentum of engagement as leaders and officials from countries including Germany, France and Spain as well as from the European Council and the European Commission visited China over the year. Premier Li also visited Germany and France in June. 

Meanwhile, China-EU high-level dialogues in the fields of environment and climate, digital, economy, trade and strategy have been held successfully, and consultations in various fields have been advanced, injecting new impetus into the development of bilateral relations. 

The summit will be an opportunity to engage with China at the highest level and to pursue constructive and stable EU-China relations, the Delegation of the EU to China said in a statement on Monday. 

The focus of the summit will be the state of EU-China relations and international issues, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the situation in the Middle East, and leaders will discuss ways of ensuring a more balanced and reciprocal trade relationship, as well as areas of shared interest such as climate change, food security, global health and pandemic preparedness, according to the statement. 

The EU will advocate the need to support the multilateral rules-based international order and reaffirm its approach to de-risking and economic security, it noted. 

Von der Leyen was quoted as saying in a Reuters' report in mid-November that a key goal of the EU summit with China was to "achieve a level playing field in trade in light of market distortions." 

China has been defined as a partner, competitor and systemic rival by the EU. It has also launched a so-called anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles from China recently, drawing strong opposition from the Chinese side. 

Those acts have indicated a paradox in its goal of maintaining cooperation in areas where the EU needs it while containing China and de-risking in other areas, some experts said, noting that those acts led EU into cognitive bias, and they interfered with the smooth progress of China-EU cooperation. 

"Despite the differences, China and the EU could seek more high-level consensuses by eyeing pragmatic cooperation and addressing global issues in order to push forward China-EU relations at a steady pace," Zhao Junjie, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of European Studies, told the Global Times on Monday. 

For instance, the two sides can make joint efforts in promoting peace talks in both the Ukraine crisis and the Palestine-Israel conflict, and in the face of rising protectionism, they could explore more opportunities in digital and green economy, Zhao said. "In new energy cooperation, however, the EU is facing a new wave of protectionism, which may put up obstacles to China-EU cooperation." 

Xi mentioned many times that China and Europe are two major forces upholding world peace, two big markets promoting shared development, and two great civilizations promoting human progress. In his latest phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Xi said China and the EU should remain partners for mutually beneficial cooperation in a volatile and intertwined world.

"The resilience of China-EU relations means that though it seeks to contain China in some areas, it cannot tackle global issues without working with China," Zhao said, noting that China will dispel some of EU's doubts through pragmatic and reciprocal cooperation but won't compromise on some core issues. 

COP28 WORLD CLIMATE ACTION SUMMIT PRESIDENCY SUMMARY



On 1 and 2 December, 154 Heads of States and Government, and 22 International Leaders gathered for the World Climate Action Summit (WCAS), signaling a new era of climate action on the road to 2030. In a complex world, the WCAS provided an opportunity for the international community to unite behind a shared commitment for more expansive and urgent climate action in response to the Paris Agreement’s first Global Stocktake.

Following the successful adoption of the agenda and early adoption of the loss and damage decision, as well as the immediate capitalization of the fund, world leaders were joined by civil society, business, indigenous peoples, youth, philanthropy, and international organizations in a spirit of shared determination and understanding of our need to unite, act and deliver urgently to close the gaps to 2030.

Leaders were clear in their unwavering ambition to keep the Paris goals within reach and shift to near-term solutions

Against the backdrop of the hottest year on record and real-world impacts felt from Derna to Maui, leaders emphasized the importance of our collective responsibility to course-correct, recognizing the range of development starting points and pathways. Several countries outlined new sectoral commitments to reduce emissions, including on methane, non-CO2 gasses and coal. The latest science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report and the report from the technical phase of the Global Stocktake (GST) set the context that the world is dramatically off track from pathways consistent with keeping 1.5°C and the Paris goals within reach.

Across the Summit, leaders acknowledged the urgency of the moment and the importance of near-term global solutions to close the gaps to 2030, taking account of different national circumstances. At this historic COP and following the early adoption of the decision on loss and damage, many countries called for an ambitious GST decision to inform actions beyond COP28, including a collective increase in ambition from the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Further progress was made in a series of high-level GST events attended by Heads of State and Government and ministers, as well as non-Party observers, and chaired by current and former High-Level Champions. The detailed outcomes of these events will be published on the UNFCCC’s website.

ENB Graphic

Leaders from a broad range of countries also emphasized the need to agree an impactful Global Goal for Adaptation that puts adaptation focus and action on par with mitigation. Recognizing the profound impact of climate change, 18 countries took a further step to demonstrate the spirit of international solidarity and made commitments totaling $725M to date towards the fund and funding arrangements related to loss and damage, including $100M from the UAE. They celebrated the early adoption of the loss and damage decision, welcoming the unique innovation of agreeing a substantive, landmark outcome on Day One of COP28.

Leaders reiterated their commitment to transitioning to an energy system that keeps 1.5 degrees within reach

During a high-level roundtable on the energy transition, 22 Heads of State and ministers, as well as business leaders met to discuss topics including the opportunities to triple renewables and double energy efficiency, reflecting on the significant fall in the cost of clean technologies.

The leaders also highlighted the opportunities to cut emissions in every sector and to accelerate the technology innovation to address scope 3 emissions, as well as the phase down of fossil fuels in support of a transition consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Leaders particularly stressed the importance of the urgency of action, whilst recognizing the need to accelerate the mobilization of finance. They highlighted the critical need in developing countries where finance and technology are prerequisites for a just energy transition that responds to increased energy demand.

Under the banner of the Global Decarbonization Accelerator (GDA), a comprehensive COP28 energy package was launched with leaders across sectors making strong commitments to accelerate a just, equitable and orderly energy transition and to slash emissions. A spotlight was put on global and cross-sector commitments to scale renewables and energy efficiency with 119 countries endorsing the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, with endorsement still being received. A new initiative, the Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA), was launched to accelerate decarbonization in heavy emitting sectors and transport globally with 35 companies joining. The Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC) saw 51 companies, including 29 national oil companies, support its target to reach net zero emissions by 2050 or before, with 30 committing to near zero methane emissions for the first time. The Emirates Breakthrough priority actions were also launched, to motivate further government action in hard to abate sectors, supporting a pathway towards regulation.

The US-China-UAE Methane and Non-CO2 Gases Summit highlighted comprehensive action to unlock substantial near-term temperature impact with over $1.2BN announced to support methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases reduction across sectors in developing countries. Participants reiterated the call for whole of economy NDCs encompassing methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions (all GHG emissions).

Throughout WCAS, leaders put a spotlight on the need to make climate finance more available, accessible and affordable

Leaders emphasized that it would be impossible to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement if sufficient finance could not be delivered, and called for a GST decision that enables the scaling up of finance and investment for climate action.

Recognizing the urgency to move from billions to trillions to address the climate finance gap, particularly in the Global South, leaders emphasized the need to transform the climate finance architecture to accelerate the transition in an equitable and inclusive way that leaves no one behind. In response, the COP28 UAE Declaration of Leaders on a Global Climate Finance Framework, co-developed and endorsed by 12 leading, representative countries laid out the contours of a new financial architecture through 10 principles to make financing available, accessible, and affordable. The report of the Independent High Level Expert Group on Climate Finance (IHLEG) that underpinned the preparation of the Declaration was released at the beginning of COP28.

The WCAS marked remarkable progress in delivering in core areas of the Declaration to enhance the flows of public, private and blended capital. In addition to the positive signal from Canada and Germany that the$100BN will have been met this year, almost $3.16BN was pledged to the Green Climate Fund, bringing the second replenishment to a historic total of $12.48BN, in addition to the $725M pledged to the fund and funding arrangements related to loss and damage, and the contributions made to the Adaptation Fund.

The World Bank announced an increased climate finance target of 45 percent, committing to deploy over $40BN per year by 2025, of which $9BN is additional, equally between mitigation and adaptation, and the UAE committed $200M Special Drawing Rights to the Resilience and Sustainability Trust of the IMF. Many countries also highlighted that more needs to be done to close the growing adaptation finance gap and to address the global debt crisis that is holding many countries back from taking truly transformative steps in their national transitions. A new Green Industrialization Initiative was announced with 12 African Heads of State to rapidly scale up clean energy in Africa, building on the UAE‘s Green Investment Initiative from the Africa Climate Summit in September.

Special emphasis was further given by many leaders to the need to unlock the potential of the private sector. Several government and financial leaders put forward a series of bold steps, policy incentives and innovative instruments to enable climate financing, including in the Global South, including the UAE’s launch of the $30BN catalytic climate fund ALTERRA.

World is dramatically off track from pathways consistent with keeping 1.5°C and the Paris goals.

The latest science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report and the report from the technical phase of the Global Stocktake (GST) set the context that the world is dramatically off track from pathways consistent with keeping 1.5°C and the Paris goals within reach.

Leaders emphasized the need to put nature, lives and livelihoods at the heart of climate action

The Summit also gave a clear signal to prioritize protecting nature, lives and livelihoods and ensuring sustainable development for all. 137 Heads of State and government unprecedently committed to new ambition on food systems transformation within their national climate plans under the COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action, alongside pioneering regenerative agriculture and climate-food innovation financing commitments totaling $2.6BN. In a watershed moment for climate and health, 125 countries endorsed the COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health, and finance providers mobilized an initial tranche of $1BN for climate and health solutions.

Nature also saw sharply increased political will for climate action, with forest-rich countries across Asia, Africa, and South America, and ocean-rich countries in the Pacific introducing landmark investment plans to simultaneously implement the Paris Agreement and new Global Biodiversity Framework, another recurring theme of WCAS, particularly on the road to COP30. These countries also announced $2.59BN of underpinning finance from public and private sources and emphasized the livelihoods and development goals of local and indigenous communities. Water featured on the agenda for only the second time in a COP, with a focus on water scarcity and access, toward which the UAE made a contribution of $150M. Multilateral Development Banks committed to doubling their climate portfolio for water within three years. Over 150 businesses and investors adopted the actions laid out in the Nature Positive for Climate Action call to action.

Inclusion and mobilization were central themes at WCAS with leaders highlighting the need to come together in unity

The WCAS made a clear and powerful call for inclusive climate action and solidarity, highlighting the key roles of civil society, women, youth, local leaders, faith-based communities, Indigenous Peoples and those on the frontline of climate change. Children and youth delivered a strong set of policy demands through the Global Youth Statement, which received input from over 750,000 youth, and was handed over for the first time in a COP to HE Shamma as the Youth Climate Champion. Leaders emphasized the need to transform education systems, and a $70M investment was announced to build climate resilient schools in vulnerable countries. More than 500 mayors, governors and other local leaders participated in WCAS, including through the dedicated Local Climate Action Summit, where the COP28 Presidency announced the groundbreaking Coalition of High Ambition Multilevel Partners (CHAMP) Pledge - endorsed by 64 countries committing to partner with subnational governments on the next round of NDCs and other climate plans and strategies. In total, nearly $470M was mobilized toward urban climate action.

Over 850 businesses and philanthropic participated in the Business and Philanthropy Forum and announced $5BN in new funding to turbocharge the climate transition in emerging economies. Over 200 Small and Medium sized Enterprises, mainly from the Global South, joined to play their part in driving a step-change in the development and deployment of climate tech solutions.

Outcomes across the WCAS built on and enhanced the work under the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action, led by the UNFCCC High-Level Climate Champions, as demonstrated at the launch of their implementation roadmap of 2030 Climate Solutions.

The COP28 Presidency looks forward to working with a spirit of transparency and inclusivity with all Parties and Observers to build on the momentum and direction set out by leaders to deliver a successful outcome in Dubai as evidence of the multilateral unity that is required to keep 1.5°C within reach.

Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan More Than a Year Ago

 


Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan More Than a Year Ago

A blueprint reviewed by The Times laid out the attack in detail. Israeli officials dismissed it as aspirational and ignored specific warnings.

Israeli officials obtained Hamas’s battle plan for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack more than a year before it happened, documents, emails and interviews show. But Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out.

The approximately 40-page document, which the Israeli authorities code-named “Jericho Wall,” outlined, point by point, exactly the kind of devastating invasion that led to the deaths of about 1,200 people.

Ronen Bergman is a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine, based in Tel Aviv. His latest book is “Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations,” published by Random House. More about Ronen Bergman Adam Goldman writes about the F.B.I. and national security. He has been a journalist for more than two decades. 




The translated document, which was reviewed by The New York Times, did not set a date for the attack, but described a methodical assault designed to overwhelm the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and storm key military bases, including a division headquarters.

Hamas followed the blueprint with shocking precision. The document called for a barrage of rockets at the outset of the attack, drones to knock out the security cameras and automated machine guns along the border, and gunmen to pour into Israel en masse in paragliders, on motorcycles and on foot — all of which happened on Oct. 7.

The plan also included details about the location and size of Israeli military forces, communication hubs and other sensitive information, raising questions about how Hamas gathered its intelligence and whether there were leaks inside the Israeli security establishment.

The document circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but experts determined that an attack of that scale and ambition was beyond Hamas’s capabilities, according to documents and officials. It is unclear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other top political leaders saw the document, as well.

Last year, shortly after the document was obtained, officials in the Israeli military’s Gaza division, which is responsible for defending the border with Gaza, said that Hamas’s intentions were unclear.

“It is not yet possible to determine whether the plan has been fully accepted and how it will be manifested,” read a military assessment reviewed by The Times.

Then, in July, just three months before the attacks, a veteran analyst with Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined in the blueprint.

But a colonel in the Gaza division brushed off her concerns, according to encrypted emails viewed by The Times.

“I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary,” the analyst wrote in the email exchanges. The Hamas training exercise, she said, fully matched “the content of Jericho Wall.”

“It is a plan designed to start a war,” she added. “It’s not just a raid on a village.”

Officials privately concede that, had the military taken these warnings seriously and redirected significant reinforcements to the south, where Hamas attacked, Israel could have blunted the attacks or possibly even prevented them.

Instead, the Israeli military was unprepared as terrorists streamed out of the Gaza Strip. It was the deadliest day in Israel’s history.

Israeli security officials have already acknowledged that they failed to protect the country, and the government is expected to assemble a commission to study the events leading up to the attacks. The Jericho Wall document lays bare a yearslong cascade of missteps that culminated in what officials now regard as the worst Israeli intelligence failure since the surprise attack that led to the Arab-Israeli war of 1973.

Underpinning all these failures was a single, fatally inaccurate belief that Hamas lacked the capability to attack and would not dare to do so. That belief was so ingrained in the Israeli government, officials said, that they disregarded growing evidence to the contrary.

The Israeli military and the Israeli Security Agency, which is in charge of counterterrorism in Gaza, declined to comment.

A blueprint reviewed by The Times laid out the attack in detail.

Officials would not say how they obtained the Jericho Wall document, but it was among several versions of attack plans collected over the years. A 2016 Defense Ministry memorandum viewed by The Times, for example, says, “Hamas intends to move the next confrontation into Israeli territory.”

Such an attack would most likely involve hostage-taking and “occupying an Israeli community (and perhaps even a number of communities),” the memo reads.

The Jericho Wall document, named for the ancient fortifications in the modern-day West Bank, was even more explicit. It detailed rocket attacks to distract Israeli soldiers and send them hurrying into bunkers, and drones to disable the elaborate security measures along the border fence separating Israel and Gaza.

Hamas fighters would then break through 60 points in the wall, storming across the border into Israel. The document begins with a quote from the Quran: “Surprise them through the gate. If you do, you will certainly prevail.”

The same phrase has been widely used by Hamas in its videos and statements since Oct. 7.

One of the most important objectives outlined in the document was to overrun the Israeli military base in Re’im, which is home to the Gaza division responsible for protecting the region. Other bases that fell under the division’s command were also listed.

Hamas carried out that objective on Oct. 7, rampaging through Re’im and overrunning parts of the base.

The audacity of the blueprint, officials said, made it easy to underestimate. All militaries write plans that they never use, and Israeli officials assessed that, even if Hamas invaded, it might muster a force of a few dozen, not the hundreds who ultimately attacked.

Israel had also misread Hamas’s actions. The group had negotiated for permits to allow Palestinians to work in Israel, which Israeli officials took as a sign that Hamas was not looking for a war.

But Hamas had been drafting attack plans for many years, and Israeli officials had gotten hold of previous iterations of them. What could have been an intelligence coup turned into one of the worst miscalculations in Israel’s 75-year history.

In September 2016, the defense minister’s office compiled a top-secret memorandum based on a much earlier iteration of a Hamas attack plan. The memorandum, which was signed by the defense minister at the time, Avigdor Lieberman, said that an invasion and hostage-taking would “lead to severe damage to the consciousness and morale of the citizens of Israel.”

The memo, which was viewed by The Times, said that Hamas had purchased sophisticated weapons, GPS jammers and drones. It also said that Hamas had increased its fighting force to 27,000 people — having added 6,000 to its ranks in a two-year period. Hamas had hoped to reach 40,000 by 2020, the memo determined.

Last year, after Israel obtained the Jericho Wall document, the military’s Gaza division drafted its own intelligence assessment of this latest invasion plan.

Hamas had “decided to plan a new raid, unprecedented in its scope,” analysts wrote in the assessment reviewed by The Times. It said that Hamas intended to carry out a deception operation followed by a “large-scale maneuver” with the aim of overwhelming the division.

But the Gaza division referred to the plan as a “compass.” In other words, the division determined that Hamas knew where it wanted to go but had not arrived there yet.

On July 6, 2023, the veteran Unit 8200 analyst wrote to a group of other intelligence experts that dozens of Hamas commandos had recently conducted training exercises, with senior Hamas commanders observing.

The training included a dry run of shooting down Israeli aircraft and taking over a kibbutz and a military training base, killing all the cadets. During the exercise, Hamas fighters used the same phrase from the Quran that appeared at the top of the Jericho Wall attack plan, she wrote in the email exchanges viewed by The Times.

The analyst warned that the drill closely followed the Jericho Wall plan, and that Hamas was building the capacity to carry it out.

The colonel in the Gaza division applauded the analysis but said the exercise was part of a “totally imaginative” scenario, not an indication of Hamas’s ability to pull it off.

“In short, let’s wait patiently,” the colonel wrote.

The back-and-forth continued, with some colleagues supporting the analyst’s original conclusion. Soon, she invoked the lessons of the 1973 war, in which Syrian and Egyptian armies overran Israeli defenses. Israeli forces regrouped and repelled the invasion, but the intelligence failure has long served as a lesson for Israeli security officials.

“We already underwent a similar experience 50 years ago on the southern front in connection with a scenario that seemed imaginary, and history may repeat itself if we are not careful,” the analyst wrote to her colleagues.

While ominous, none of the emails predicted that war was imminent. Nor did the analyst challenge the conventional wisdom among Israeli intelligence officials that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was not interested in war with Israel. But she correctly assessed that Hamas’s capabilities had drastically improved. The gap between the possible and the aspirational had narrowed significantly.

The failures to connect the dots echoed another analytical failure more than two decades ago, when the American authorities also had multiple indications that the terrorist group Al Qaeda was preparing an assault. The Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were largely a failure of analysis and imagination, a government commission concluded.

“The Israeli intelligence failure on Oct. 7 is sounding more and more like our 9/11,” said Ted Singer, a recently retired senior C.I.A. official who worked extensively in the Middle East. “The failure will be a gap in analysis to paint a convincing picture to military and political leadership that Hamas had the intention to launch the attack when it did.”

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