Will Trump make U.S. imperialism great again? I answered your questions.
David's live chat with readers
By David Ignatius
David Ignatius
And so, as the Q&A clock tolls, we say goodbye to President Biden's years as our careful foreign policy steward and walk into a new era. I hope you'll come back in two weeks and share your questions about what the Trump administration is doing and undoing.
Could China help end the Ukraine war?
LP
Jan 13, 4:27 p.m.
Given Russia's economic challenges and increasing reliance on China, could China exert any leverage to bring about an end to the Ukraine war? Or will China continue to prioritize the profits of providing war materiel to Russia given its own economic issues?
Chinese officials have said, in a general way, that they want to bring an end to the Ukraine war and that they regard acquisition of territory by force as unacceptable. They have also appointed a special emissary for Ukraine who travels regularly to Kyiv. So far, this hasn't added up to anything. It's clear that the Chinese (like everyone else) have been talking with President-elect Donald Trump and his team since the U.S. election. Is that why Trump said in his Dec. 8 tweet on Ukraine, "China can help"??? (For those who may have overlooked this one, here's the relevant text: "Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting." What does this portend, especially regarding a Chinese role? Stay tuned.
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Where should Trump focus his foreign policy?
Bradley
Jan 13, 4:35 p.m.
FBI Director Chris Wray stated that China is his primary concern based on the factors you already know. Are you concerned that Donald Trump's rhetoric regarding Greenland and Panama could undermine NATO and U.S. efforts in Ukraine? Thus, giving Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping justification in pursuing their ambitions in Europe, Taiwan and the South China Sea?
I worry that Trump's bombastic disruptions about Greenland and Panama will distract him and everyone else from the BIG issues he faces in the first months, especially Ukraine and Iran. He's going to need European help on both. So far, as I reported in a post-election column, Europeans — feeling very threatened by Russia — are trying to work with Trump, offering soothing "Nice Kitty" remarks, even on the Greenland issue. If Trump is going to have any success on foreign policy, he will need to do something that often eluded him during his first term, which is to prioritize.
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Will Trump make U.S. imperialism great again?
Guest
Jan 13, 4:36 p.m.
Do you think the US will stop supporting Ukraine and invade (or something like that) Greenland and Panama?
No. Even Trump at his most disuptive wouldn't do anything that dumb. (I hope.)
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What has the war done to Ukraine’s currency and banking system?
Guest
Jan 13, 4:41 p.m.
Has this much turmoil occurred before in Ukraine’s history? And, if so, how long was the recovery period?
Good question, insufficient knowledge for me to answer well. Ukraine's economy (including its currency and banking system) has been sustained by a flood of international assistance (not just for weapons), and European support will continue regardless of what the Trump administration does. My sense during two visits to Ukraine last year was that political consensus for President Volodymyr Zelensky was fragmenting a bit, limiting his ability to make the reforms that Ukraine still needs in its banking and fiscal system. Biggest incentive for Kyiv to manage these portfolios wisely is that Ukrainians REALLY want (and need) to join the European Union, and accession will require economic discipline.
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How has Putin survived for 25 years? Does he have roots in Ukraine?
Guest
Jan 13, 4:43 p.m.
Is Ukraine important to Russia for its port access?
Russia wants the big port of Sebastopol in Crimea for strategic and cultural/historical reasons. But I think the deeper reason for Putin's obsession with Ukraine is an almost mystical sense that it is not a "real" country but part of greater Russia.
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David Ignatius
Jan 13, 4:50 p.m.
This is the last foreign policy chat of the Biden administration. I trust we'll be able to answer ALL your questions today and then move smartly along. Note that this chat will be followed at around 2 p.m. Eastern by a Biden address on foreign policy, which may supply answers in place of my guesses.
What are the sentiments of those Ukrainians who live in Russian-occupied areas?
Jeff
Jan 13, 4:55 p.m.
I haven't heard much about the lot of those in the areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia. What might be their future in the event of a settlement? Generally, how are people dealing with their situation?
Ukrainians tell me that Russia has lost the sympathy and support of many Russian-speakers in areas of Donetsk and Luhansk that it invaded and occupied in the east — and that they no longer speak Russian if they can avoid it. But Kyiv may be overstating resistance. The Ukrainians talked about a partisan guerrilla campaign against Russian occupiers in those areas — that would make eastern Ukraine an indigestible "porcupine." So far, except for some scattered assassinations and bombings, that hasn't happened. The interesting question for me is how people in the occupied Donbass and Zaporizhzhia/Kherson regions would react if a Trump-negotiated peace deal ratified Putin's claim that they now live in "Russia." Badly, I expect. That's one reason Trump's diplomacy could blow up in his face if he isn't careful.
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What is the most likely strategy Trump would follow to try to end the war?
Guest
Jan 13, 5:00 p.m.
What is the most likely strategy Donald Trump would follow to try to end the war? - Bruce McCormack
Guess: Trump would try to compensate for Ukrainian land losses (giving up, at least for now, claim to the areas Russia occupies) in exchange for security guarantees that could come from presence in Ukraine of troops from France, Britain and other European nations — with some U.S. logistical and C2 support outside Ukraine. This wouldn't be a formal NATO mission, more "sub-NATO," so it wouldn't have a U.S. nuclear guarantee. But, as I said, this is just a guess based on early conversations with a few knowledgeable people.
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If Israel's war is just, does it excuse Biden contributing to any war crimes?
Ron Feiertag
Jan 13, 5:05 p.m.
The Leahy law applies. I would have edited what you wrote to read: "Biden sought a middle course on the Israel-Gaza war. He paid lip service to limiting Palestinian civilian casualties while providing Israel with the weapons it would need to continue for more than one year to commit war crimes including genocide against innocent Palestinian men, women, and children."
I think President Joe Biden did more than pay lip service. The United States battled (successfully) to open border crossings, increase aid flow, stop settlers from blocking shipments. But you're right that Biden was never willing to take the more dramatic and impactful step of cutting or halting arms shipments (other than a brief delay). From my conversations, I sense that many administration officials have been anguished by their inability to stop the Gaza killings. A few have resigned. Many more feel something close to shame about inability to protect Palestinian civilians better.
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Now that it’s clear Ukraine will lose to Russia, how does the United States salvage its reputation?
Guest
Jan 13, 5:09 p.m.
The United States has invested billions of dollars and its credibility in the failed Ukrainian response to Russia’s special military operation. Will we ever recover?
Sorry, but it's not clear to me that Ukraine will lose to Russia. It may lose some territory, But unless Trump swallows a totally pro-Putin deal, it will move closer to joining the European Union and will have continuing protection from a strengthened NATO that has Sweden and Finland at Russia's northwest frontier. That doesn't look to me like a Russian victory!
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Will Congress capitulate or fight if Trump abandons Ukraine?
Dennis
Jan 13, 5:10 p.m.
President-elect Donald Trump is expected to find some way to get out of Ukraine possibly using the pretext that lives will be saved if the war is ended. If he does, what will Congress do?
My hope: Congress (and members of Trump's own team) would resist a deal that abandons Ukraine and gives Putin a clear win (i.e., a "neutral" Ukraine that's a Russian puppet.)
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Ukraine-Russia: What's really going on?
Guest
Jan 13, 5:13 p.m.
One minute I'm reading that Ukraine is on the ropes and can't last much longer, then the next minute I'm reading that Russia is losing 320 "barrels" a month (which I gather combines tanks and artillery pieces) and can only replace 20 and is also so desperate for manpower that it had to bring in 10,000 North Koreans. I suppose it's more about drone warfare now, but does anybody know what's really going on?
What's going on, militarily, is a grinding war of attrition in which Russia is very slowly advancing in Donetsk in the east. A troubling factor is that Ukraine has a growing manpower problem (i.e., not enough troops at the front). But Russia has growing problems, too. It's "war economy" is sapping every other sector. Wars end when both sides are exhausted. Ukraine is nearing that point; Russia, less so — but it's losing vast numbers of troops and materiel.
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Both wars have been horrible and unfortunately Biden's administration was ineffective in ending both
Why doesn't the US treat Russia & Israel the same?
Jan 13, 5:19 p.m.
In the case of Russia, while appreciating the need to avoid WWIII, it seems that the issue is pretty clear. Russia invaded a free country whose borders it agreed to respect in exchange for it giving up its nukes — which I am sure Ukraine regrets giving up. Much more pressure needs to be put on China and India to pull the rug out from under Putin. In the case of Israel, it has been invading and stealing U.N.-recognized Palestinian land in the West Bank and other areas since 1948 — to the tune of having virtual control over most of he West Bank by forcing Palestinians off their land and moving in more than 700,000 Israeli citizens. And now having killed more than 47,000 people — mostly children and women. Clearly this did not start on Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel actually supported Hamas in some ways because it too was against two-state solutions. In this case, Biden had all the cards (money, military arms and diplomacy) but refused to really play any of them and even took repeated snubs by Israel. The situation needs to be radically changed in both cases, but, unfortunately, as bad as Biden has handled them I do not see any signs that the incoming administration will do better and probably worse. What is you advice to the Trump team?
I'm probably the last person the Trump administration would listen to, but ... I think Trump should stand by Ukraine until there's a just settlement of the war that doesn't reward Putin's aggression. I think Trump should press (as Biden has) for an end to the Gaza war and a release of hostages (if they're not out already) — and Trump should resist calls from Israel's right wing and some in his administration for Israeli annexation of the West Bank. That would destabilize Jordan and torch the region all over again.
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With North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine, why doesn’t the West use the term "world war"?
Paul M
Jan 13, 5:28 p.m.
With North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine, why doesn’t the West use the term "world war"?
This war is still mostly contained inside Ukraine and Russia, so even with the North Korean role, I think "world war" is a stretch. That said, I am growing more worried about the escalating "hybrid" war (i.e., paramilitary covert action) that Russia is waging against NATO, with exploding parcels and warehouse bombs, etc.
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Who can EFFECTIVELY guide Trump’s actions in concert with our EU allies?
David McLain jr
Jan 13, 5:31 p.m.
Who will champion support to Ukraine in the United States?
I hope the champions, so to speak, will be Republicans who have backed U.S. aid for Ukraine — people like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, now likely to be the two key national security officials — and pro-Ukraine members of Congress like Sen. Lindsey Graham, Sen. Mitch McConnell and, yes, maybe House Speaker Mike Johnson.
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Will the cease-fire in Lebanon last?
Guest
Jan 13, 5:32 p.m.
I read today that the cease-fire in Lebanon expires after 60 days, which I did not know. So far, it seems to have held without any major violations. Will it continue to hold after the 60-day clock expires or will Israel return to bombing the hell out of Lebanon?
Talking to the Lebanese this past week, I've heard pretty upbeat assessments about the ceasefire — mainly because there's now a clear political consensus in Lebanon to support it, symbolized by the election of former army commander Joseph Aoun as president. To maintain momentum, Lebanon needs a new prime minister and cabinet that can begin reforming the corrupt spoils system that Hezbollah exploited but didn't create. In a world of trouble, Lebanon is a country that has actually been going in the right direction.
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What if NATO defended Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure from missiles as the U.S. has for Israel?
Jim
Jan 13, 5:36 p.m.
What if NATO defended Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure from missiles as the U.S. did for Israel against Iran? My thinking is that NATO could announce an intent to protect innocent civilians to make it clear that there is no threat to Russian territory or Russian personnel. I realize that Putin will argue that it's an escalation, but I don't see how he could respond without actually attacking NATO. What i don't know is whether Russia's offensive missiles are harder to interception than Iran's.
Good idea. Part of Ukraine's future security must be real protection from Russian missiles. An "iron dome" isn't realistic. Ukraine is just too big, compared with Israel. But anti-missile defenses are essential.
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Could Trump's muddled rhetoric and ego prolong the Ukraine war and even risk expanding the conflict?
Dan H
Jan 13, 5:41 p.m.
Trump is not a model of clarity and intent, whether in public or in private statements and positions. I don't think anyone would dispute this. When it comes to Putin, however, his actions and words are quite clear: The Russian president wants to turn Ukraine into a Belarus 2.0 and then expand from there.
Putin may conclude from Trump's rhetoric that the United States will abandon support for Ukraine (and NATO?). Putin then has every reason to remain on course and even amp up efforts wherever possible. If Trump vacillates and prevaricates over the U.S. role in Europe, some NATO countries may decide to act on their own, with Poland, the Baltics and perhaps even Finland first out of the gate to engage Russia in a kinetic war.
David, do you see a scenario like this as plausible?
Putin may conclude from Trump's rhetoric that the United States will abandon support for Ukraine (and NATO?). Putin then has every reason to remain on course and even amp up efforts wherever possible. If Trump vacillates and prevaricates over the U.S. role in Europe, some NATO countries may decide to act on their own, with Poland, the Baltics and perhaps even Finland first out of the gate to engage Russia in a kinetic war.
David, do you see a scenario like this as plausible?
I think you raise just the right point. If Putin thinks he has Trump in the bag, there's no reason for him to make the concessions that might bring a real peace. What I hope Trump realizes is that a bad deal would be unstable and that it would blow back on him. Also, surely, Mr. Bigstuff doesn't want to start a second term looking like a patsy.
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What will Trump 2.0's final position be on Ukraine?
Birddog
Jan 13, 5:43 p.m.
First, in the spirit of keeping oneself in a position to continue to speak truth to power-Thanks for hanging in there Mr.Ignatius..Second what could be the effects here at home, on the NATO alliance and on China's decision over Taiwan of Trump cozying up to Putin in the upcoming negotiations over the fate of the Ukrainians ?
I've been addressing aspects of your question throughout this chat, but honest answer is that I don't know yet what Trump's final position will be. (I'm not sure he does, either.)
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Will there be a hostage deal in Gaza?
Ben D
Jan 13, 5:44 p.m.
Hi David. What are you hearing about the hostage deal? Is it going to happen? And when?
Let's all watch Biden's foreign policy address today (at 2 p.m. Eastern or so), where I am sure he will discuss any new developments. The latest leaks from Israel say that Bibi has signed off on deal, but I've heard no confirmation that Hamas has, as well.
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Where are the adults in the room?
CD
Jan 13, 5:48 p.m.
Where are the sane voices from the American government on either side of the aisle as Trump carries on about taking over autonomous nations? Why aren’t we hearing pushback from Biden, Obama, Harris, maybe a governor or two (Whitmer?) and whatever sane Republicans are left? Trump is suggesting actions no better than Putin in Ukraine, and I seem to recall loud pushback from American statesmen about Putin’s behavior — something about saving democracy.
Using economic levers against a peaceful neighbor for no reason is beyond wrong. He is lying and making up reasons to crush Canada's economy, and what happens when they don’t work? What’s next? It’s Putin's playbook: lie and give your devoted followers a target. Hitler's playbook as well.
Again, all I am hearing is a deafening silence from those who could influence.
Where are those voices?
Using economic levers against a peaceful neighbor for no reason is beyond wrong. He is lying and making up reasons to crush Canada's economy, and what happens when they don’t work? What’s next? It’s Putin's playbook: lie and give your devoted followers a target. Hitler's playbook as well.
Again, all I am hearing is a deafening silence from those who could influence.
Where are those voices?
I think there have been many negative comments about the disruptive and counter-productive effects of Trump comments on Greenland and Panama (including in this chat). So, I guess I disagree with your premise. One thing I learned during Trump 1.0 is not to get totally spun up over tweets or news conference remarks that are a very long way from becoming policy.
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Have Europe's interests in the Middle East shifted?
Conner Clark
Jan 13, 5:52 p.m.
How have North Korean troops and Iranian missiles in Ukraine, as well as Russia’s new vulnerability in Syria, changed Europeans’ thinking on their own involvement in power politics in Asia and the Middle East? (Obviously, the most significant actors won’t all agree.) Are these seen as more reasons to deescalate with Russia and/or China or as warning signs that instability and autocracies, even if far away, will impact Europe in its own backyard?
Finally, thank you for all you do to shed light on international events. You’ll be happy to know that I recently renewed my Post subscription. That’s mainly because I forgot the auto-renewal date, but I still feel like I’ll need it this year.
Finally, thank you for all you do to shed light on international events. You’ll be happy to know that I recently renewed my Post subscription. That’s mainly because I forgot the auto-renewal date, but I still feel like I’ll need it this year.
I have found Europeans to be deeply concerned about Russian actions and not in a concessionary mood. China is more complicated. If the Europeans think Trump is cozying up to Xi, they won't want to be far behind. And finally, thank you! I am so glad when people tell me that they are sticking with The Post. We have so many great journalists around the world, some of whom risk their necks to provide reliable information for readers, and I really hope subscribers will stand with us during what's obviously a difficult time.
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Mobilization is not a dirty word ... umm ... is it?
Paul
Jan 13, 5:55 p.m.
It seems the E.U. has been sitting a bit too comfortably under the U.S./NATO wing, and this has made it less likely to take the necessary actions of a free people. Putin is perched on Europe's doorstep. Putin is waging a war of disdain against Europe, hiring criminals and gangs to attack people, places and things Russia sees as useful to bending the E.U. to his will.
Macron, last summer(?), spoke of sending French troops to Ukraine. This could be the start of an E.U.-wide mobilization effort. Other E.U. nations can join in, tactically, in a concerted effort to improve Putin's focus on who he is actually attacking. Explaining to Putin that his war is far from over and just became exponentially more expensive at a time when Russia is at its weakest would open the door to useful peace talks.
Mobilize, while offering Putin a way out. Leave Ukraine before Jan. 20 and Ukraine's NATO membership can be delayed for 10-15 years. Fail to leave and Ukraine will become eligible in three to five years. A similar schedule can be proposed for E.U. membership.
Thoughts?
Macron, last summer(?), spoke of sending French troops to Ukraine. This could be the start of an E.U.-wide mobilization effort. Other E.U. nations can join in, tactically, in a concerted effort to improve Putin's focus on who he is actually attacking. Explaining to Putin that his war is far from over and just became exponentially more expensive at a time when Russia is at its weakest would open the door to useful peace talks.
Mobilize, while offering Putin a way out. Leave Ukraine before Jan. 20 and Ukraine's NATO membership can be delayed for 10-15 years. Fail to leave and Ukraine will become eligible in three to five years. A similar schedule can be proposed for E.U. membership.
Thoughts?
I like your formulation: Mobilize to protect Ukraine while also supporting negotiations to bring a *just* end to the war. The only caution about mobilization plans, as every student of WWI history knows, is that they can sometimes lead to lock-step escalation and a wider conflict that nobody wants.
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Why does David think he is an expert on foreign affairs? He was so so wrong about the war in Iraq.
Guest
Jan 13, 5:58 p.m.
See above
Fair question. This is a painful one. As I have often said in print, there are no columns I would rather take back than those supporting the 2003 invasion of Iraq. I try to be honest about mistakes, but that doesn't mean I won't make more.
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How can you rule out a Trump 2028 run?
Bondosan
Jan 13, 6:02 p.m.
I was surprised by your dismissive response some weeks ago regarding a reader’s question about the potential for Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond his second term. Yes, of course, the Constitution forbids it, but this is a man who launched a riot that got people killed because his fragile ego couldn’t handle an election loss. None of our “guardrails” has proven very effective in dealing with him at all.
I'm worried about many possible actions by Trump, but I continue to think that a dictatorial campaign for a third term is unlikely. If I'm wrong about that, the country we prize will truly be shattered.
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