Jews in These Seven Battleground States Could Swing the U.S. Election for Harris or Trump

Jews in These Seven Battleground States Could Swing the U.S. Election for Harris or Trump

The swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all home to Jewish populations whom both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will be counting on to vote for them on Tuesday. Here are the key numbers for this key demographic

Jews in These Seven Battleground States Could Swing the U.S. Election for Harris or Trump

Oct 31, 2024  Ben Samuels Washington Haaretz

WASHINGTON – By all accounts, the 2024 U.S. election is expected to be the closest presidential race in American history. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is the next president hinges on the results of seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The Jewish vote, and voters motivated by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, could impact the razor-thin margins, giving both the demographic and issue more significance than in perhaps any previous U.S. election.

U.S. President Joe Biden defeated Trump in 2020 in five of the states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania – by less than 3 percent, with Jewish voters making up an estimated 1 to 3 percent of their respective electorates.

Given their unprecedented significance, both the Republican and Democratic campaigns and Jewish organizations have invested more money than ever before in pushing their candidate to victory.

What are the campaigns doing to secure the Jewish vote?

The Harris campaign is paying particular attention to mobilizing Jewish voters in the states with the largest Jewish populations, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

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This has been done via national organizing calls, bringing together thousands of Jewish voters to hear Harris' message from key surrogates. This included from her directly as well as Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff – the first Jewish spouse of a U.S. president or vice president.

The Trump campaign, meanwhile, launched a Jewish Voices for Trump coalition in August with designated outreach staff. It has highlighted the GOP party platform where it has prioritized combating antisemitism in the pro-Palestinian campus protest movement, while accusing Harris of taking the Jewish-American community for granted.

The campaign has additionally held a series of events – the majority of which were associated with megadonor Miriam Adelson – aimed at emphasizing Trump's record as "the most pro-Israel president in U.S. history."

As Republican National Committee Spokesperson Elizabeth Pipko sees it, "Jewish Americans are hurting. They see that the Democratic Party of our parents and grandparents no longer exists."

How are Jewish organizations rallying behind Trump and Harris?

The Jewish Democratic Council of America and its associated political action committee has made more than 1.45 million direct voter contacts via phone, text and canvassing. It has made over 1 million direct voter contacts in the seven swing states, intending to exceed 2 million by Election Day.

It has sent more than 270 volunteers out-of-state volunteers to canvas in the five swing states with key Jewish constituencies. It has also spent nearly $2 million in ads in the seven states, with their viewership exceeding 25 million.

J Street has raised more than $6 million for the Harris campaign via its political fundraising arm – the largest Jewish organizational source of funds for her campaign during the 2024 election cycle.

Democratic Majority for Israel and its affiliated PAC have released a series of ads highlighting Trump's association with avowed antisemites and educating Jewish voters in swing states on Harris' pro-Israel record.

The Republican Jewish Coalition, meanwhile, dedicated $15 million to turning out the Jewish vote, with particular attention to Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan. It has additionally committed $5 million in direct fundraising for the campaign.

For more than a year, the RJC has had staff and 500 volunteers on the ground performing grassroots efforts on top of all the paid media.

It has hailed its operation as the largest and most comprehensive data-driven operation ever attempted in the Jewish community, including fostering a more sophisticated outreach effort. Their efforts have led them to confidently reject any poll indicating Trump is underperforming with Jewish voters compared to 2016.

The key states

All population data is taken from to Brandeis' American Jewish Population Project (published February 2021) unless otherwise noted.

Arizona

Number of electoral votes: 11

Jewish adult population: Approximately 115,000

2020 result: Biden win (0.3% margin)

Biden narrowly defeated Trump in 2020 by 10,000 votes – only the second time the Democrats won Arizona since the 1940s. Comprising 2.1 percent of the state's electorate, the Jewish vote will play a significant role in 2024, particularly in Maricopa County – the key for both Trump and Harris' hopes in winning the state.

Trump won Arizona in 2016 despite a significant shift toward Democrats in Maricopa. He lost in 2020 because of Maricopa's continued shift, despite improving in the state's rural areas. If Harris continues gaining in Maricopa, she may likely offset Trump's positive polling in the state's rural areas, suburbs and other border communities.

Eighty percent of Arizona's adult Jews reside in five districts, including parts of Tucson, Phoenix and other metropolitan areas within Maricopa County.

These districts are closely divided between leaning Democratic and Republican. Three of the top five districts are represented by Republicans, including the most heavily Jewish district holding the Phoenix metro area, which has 40,000 Jewish adults.

The Harris campaign delegated its Jewish liaison, Ilan Goldenberg, and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz to meet local voters. It also established a Jewish community leadership embedded with the local Jewish community, doing outreach and organizing get-out-the-vote efforts like door knocking, phone banks and op-eds in local papers.

The local Jewish community's moderation, meanwhile, is reflected in the state's political leaning, with 55 percent identifying or leaning Democrat compared to 39 percent Republican.

Georgia

Number of electoral votes: 16

Jewish adult population: Approximately 104,000

2020 result: Biden win (0.23% margin)

Roughly 68 percent of Georgia's Jews live in the Atlanta metro area. Four of the five districts holding this population are represented by Democrats, though the state's Jewish electorate skews more moderate than the national average. Fifty-four percent identify or lean Democrat compared to 38 percent Republican.

The state represented the most significant swing for Democrats in 2020, with the party winning Georgia for the first time in nearly 30 years after effectively overseeing a 33-point swing since Barack Obama's 2012 campaign.

While Hillary Clinton made gains in Atlanta in 2016, Trump's performance in smaller cities and rural areas kept the state in his pocket. Biden, meanwhile, outperformed in Atlanta while incrementally gaining support that Trump had claimed in 2016.

The most significant portion of Georgia's Jewish voters reside in Atlanta's northern suburbs, including the Fulton County cities of Sandy Springs and Roswell, in addition to portions of Cobb and DeKalb counties.

Several Georgia Republicans have been embroiled in controversies relating to Israel and the Jewish community. Rep. Andrew Clyde opposed supplemental military assistance to Israel, citing the lack of offset funding cuts. Rep. Mike Collins amplified an X post attacking a Jewish reporter over her religion. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, perhaps Trump's closest ally in Congress, has been linked to a handful of scandals. And state GOP official Kandiss Taylor appeared to agree with a white nationalist TV host who said Jews are "controlling everything."

Multiple Jewish civil rights organizations, meanwhile, filed a federal complaint with the U.S. Education Department last year alleging that the Fulton County School District created a "hostile" and "intolerable" environment following the October 7 Hamas attack.

Harris will need these Jewish votes if she hopes to defeat Trump, who will consider these votes added value on top of desired gains in rural areas and outperforming with male Black voters.

The Trump campaign sent Shabbos Kestenbaum – one of six Jewish students who sued Harvard University for discrimination earlier this year – as a surrogate. Rep. Ritchie Torres, one of the most ardent pro-Israel advocates in the Democratic Party, visited the state as a Harris surrogate accompanied by Goldenberg. Emhoff additionally appeared at a suburban Atlanta voter-engagement effort.

Michigan

Number of electoral votes: 15

Jewish adult population: Approximately 105,000

2020 result: Biden win (2.78% margin)

In Michigan, 77 percent of the Jewish community lives in the neighboring metro areas of Detroit, Ann Arbor and Lansing.

Comprising 1.4 percent of the state's electorate, the majority of these Jewish voters live in Democrat-controlled districts. The populace is consistently aligned with the national Jewish electorate, with 61 percent identifying or leaning Democrat compared to 31 percent Republican.

The state, which is notably part of the Democrats' vaunted "blue wall" that is its most likely path toward victory, has been identified by both campaigns as the potential bellwether for this election.

Trump's narrow 2016 victory in the state was an anomaly compared to decades-long historical trends – something Biden restored in his 2020 victory where he markedly regained ground previously ceded by Hillary Clinton, particularly in the Detroit area.

Whether Trump can restore his gains could largely hinge on how many voters are swayed by the Gaza war. Michigan is the epicenter of the Uncommitted National Movement, with 100,000 Democratic primary voters declining to vote for Biden earlier this year.

Pro-Palestinian protests have been omnipresent in the state over the past year, including dozens of students unfurling Palestinian flags and banners at the University of Michigan's commencement. There have been numerous incidents of antisemitism at the Ann Arbor campus beyond pro-Palestinian protests.

Leading Michigan Democrats have failed to reach a happy medium between the dueling camps, often finding themselves at odds with each other. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel accused Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American member of Congress, of antisemitism after she criticized Nessel for pressing charges against pro-Palestinian protesters at UMich. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, among the most popular Democrats nationwide, declined to involve herself in the spat, only worsening tensions.

A GOP-linked super PAC with financial ties to Trump megadonor Elon Musk has run targeted ads to voters opposed to Harris' Middle East policies, playing up her pro-Israel record and highlighting her Jewish husband in a bad-faith attack that has earned widespread derision.

She has seemingly failed to regain much ground with these disillusioned voters, some of whom have opted to vote for third-party candidates like Jill Stein. Meanwhile, more socially conservative Arab voters have publicly supported Trump despite his long-standing record and rhetoric targeting Arabs and Muslims.

Harris will need to expand Biden's totals in Oakland County, where tens of thousands of Jews reside, while Trump will need to reverse his 2020 showing in Detroit. Both will also need the Arab and progressive votes to trend in the way their campaigns are counting on.

Nevada

Number of electoral votes: 6

Jewish adult population: Approximately 41,000

2020 result: Biden win (2.39% margin)

While 75 percent of Nevada's Jewish voters chose Biden in 2020, according to an AP exit poll, he only won the state by approximately 33,000 votes.

Democrats have consistently won the state in recent elections, although by steadily decreasing margins. Trump gained ground in 2016 in Las Vegas, where the majority of the state's voters are based. While Biden regained traditional support in Vegas four years ago, Trump grew increasingly popular in rural areas.

Harris needs a decisive victory in Vegas, while Trump needs a historical outlier – whether that means him overperforming or her underperforming.

The key city is notably home to Miriam Adelson, the Israeli-American widow of Sheldon Adelson. She is among Trump's most important megadonors and has offered unprecedented support for him, based solely off his record on Israel as president. This includes rare public appearances where she has presented herself as a stamp of approval for the Jewish community, but also exceeding $100 million in donations to a pro-Trump super PAC.

North Carolina

Number of electoral votes: 16

Jewish adult population: Approximately 49,000

2020 result: Trump win (1.34% margin)

The Tar Heel State's Jews only make up 0.5 percent of the state's electorate, according to Jewish Heritage North Carolina, though Jewish concerns have headlined the race that has garnered the most national attention surrounding explicit right-wing antisemitism.

Jewish Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is running against Republican Mark Robinson, who has previously downplayed the threat of Nazism and repeatedly invoking antisemitic stereotypes. That was before he was revealed to have called himself a "Black Nazi" on a porn site's message board and praising the work of Hitler.

Other senior officials in North Carolina, including Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer, were subjected to antisemitic harassment in the weeks following Hurricane Helene – a result of right-wing coordinated conspiracies surrounding the federal response to the deadly storm, as well as rampant disinformation on X.

If the electorate were to vote for a president based on their vote for governor, North Carolina would likely not be so competitive. The Uncommitted movement, however, is particularly strong in North Carolina, with 12 percent of Democratic primary voters choosing "no preference" earlier this year.

Furthermore, it is the only one of the seven battleground states that went Trump's way over Biden in 2020. Rapidly evolving voting patterns, however, have pushed North Carolina into up-for-grabs territory – particularly in cities like Charlotte, which is home to 15,000 Jews, and Raleigh, whose residents are primarily northern transplants.

North Carolina may come down to what is greater: Harris' support in cities and urban areas, or Trump's gains in rural communities.

Pennsylvania

Number of electoral votes: 19

Jewish adult population: Approximately 299,000

2020 result: Biden win (1.17% margin)

Seventy-eight percent of the state's Jews reside in Delaware Valley, eastern Pennsylvania. Four of these districts – part of the greater Philadelphia suburbs – account for more than half of the state's Jewish electorate, with 67 percent identifying or leaning toward Democrats versus 26 percent Republican.

These Jewish adults – roughly 45 percent of Jewish voters in battleground states, and an estimated 3 percent of the state's total electorate – are particularly important since Biden only defeated Trump by just over 1 percentage point in 2020.

Trump became the first GOP candidate since Ronald Reagan to win Pennsylvania in 2016, defeating Hillary Clinton by less than 50,000 votes. Biden narrowly defeated Trump in 2020 after outperforming Clinton in the state's biggest vote centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (and their respective suburbs).

Both Harris and Trump are banking on the suburbs, with Harris additionally needing to ensure voter turnout in the cities. Trump's most likely path to victory in Pennsylvania will be regaining his 2020 losses in the Philadelphia suburbs, which include the state's most significant Jewish population.

The state has been at the epicenter of many controversies stemming from October 7 and the Gaza war, with the University of Pennsylvania and its leadership at the heart of the campus antisemitism saga. Demonstrations targeting Israeli restaurants sparked debate on where the line on appropriate protests should be drawn.

The state's Jewish Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, became one of the country's most nationally recognizable political figures after nearly being tapped as Harris' running mate. She passed on Shapiro following a remarkably fierce campaign from progressive Democrats targeting him over his support of Israel – an effort several critics deemed as flirting with antisemitism.

While Shapiro, who has since been one of her most effective national surrogates, and Harris both denied his religion played a role in her decision, the Trump campaign frequently cited antisemitism as the primary reason he did not get the nod.

A GOP-linked super PAC with financial ties to Musk has run targeted ads to voters displeased with Harris' attempts at mollifying progressive voters, playing up her supposed enablement of antisemitism and support for campus protesters.

Rep. Peter Deutsch, a former Democratic member of Congress who has since endorsed Trump, campaigned for the GOP nominee. Other prominent Trump supporters also live in the Philly suburbs, including Zionist Organization of America CEO Mort Klein and megadonors Jeff Yass and Arthur Dantchik.

Emhoff, meanwhile, participated in a get-out-the-Jewish-vote event in the Philly suburbs, while Rep. Dan Goldman met with Jewish voters in Philadelphia and Rep. Adam Schiff met with Jewish voters in Pittsburgh. The second gentleman also delivered what amounted to the Harris campaign's argument to American Jews in Pittsburgh – the site of 2018's Tree of Life synagogue shooting – one week before Election Day.

Wisconsin

Number of electoral votes: 10

Jewish adult population: Approximately 42,000

2020 result: Biden win (0.63% margin)

Fifty-seven percent of Wisconsin's Jews reside in the Milwaukee and Madison metropolitan areas.

They comprise less than 1 percent of the state's electorate, with 66 percent identifying or leaning toward Democrat compared to 26 percent Republican.

Though the numbers may not be overwhelming, Wisconsin has seen the most consistently narrow margins in both of Trump's previous campaigns – he both won in 2016 and lost in 2020 by less than a percentage point.

The Democrats' biggest improvement in 2020 was in the areas where Jewish voters predominately reside. This, however, also includes many young and progressive voters whom have expressed dissatisfaction with Harris' Middle East policies.

This is driven home by the fact that 48,000 voters chose "uninstructed" during the state's Democratic primary. Republicans, who held their convention in Milwaukee in hopes of pushing the state in their favor, recently attacked Harris for her engagement with a pro-Palestinian protester at a Milwaukee campaign event, after she appeared to say what he was talking about was "real" after he explicitly accused Israel of genocide.

Both Trump and Harris must outperform Biden in Milwaukee and its suburbs if they hope to take the state⍐.