NPP Poised for Victory in Sri Lanka’s Parliamentary Election

The opposition has not fully understood the public demand for change.

By Rathindra Kuruwita October 23, 2024 The Diplomat

Less than two months after Sri Lankans elected a new president, they are set to vote in parliamentary elections on November 14. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) seems poised for victory.

The NPP’s rivals are warning voters against voting for the NPP, drawing attention to the risks of giving the coalition too much power. They are calling on voters to ensure a strong opposition.  For example, former President Ranil Wickremesinghe has urged voters to elect experienced politicians from other parties. He warned that the NPP could dismantle the economy.

Based on the presidential election result, some are predicting that the general election will throw up a hung parliament. Dissanayake secured 43 percent of the vote in the presidential election. If the NPP gets a similar percentage of votes in the parliamentary election, it could fall short of the 113 seats needed for a simple majority in the 225-member parliament.

However, it seems almost certain that the NPP will secure more votes in the upcoming election than in the presidential election.

Several politicians and experts said that the presidential election was primarily about the economy.

But Dissanayake’s win was also a reflection of widespread anger toward the entrenched political establishment. Those prioritizing economic stability likely voted for Wickremesinghe or Sajith Premadasa, as both their parties, the United National Party (UNP) and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), ran campaigns focused on fearmongering.

During the campaign, fake videos misrepresenting the words of NPP members and warning voters that the NPP would confiscate their bank deposits, land, and extra vehicles circulated on social media. There was also an organized effort to convince the public that Dissanayake would be rejected by the international community, without whose support Sri Lanka could not finalize debt restructuring or attract foreign direct investment. These tactics particularly influenced middle-aged and senior voters, who refrained from voting for the NPP due to these fears.

The fact that 4.3 million Sri Lankans voted for Dissanayake shows that a large portion of the population was exhausted by the existing political culture in Sri Lanka. Wickremesinghe may have stabilized the economy, albeit at the cost of future growth and a decline in living standards, but he failed to address the broader demand for political reform — a key issue raised by protesters who ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022. Instead of responding to calls for greater checks and balances, reduced corruption, and increased transparency, Wickremesinghe’s administration oversaw a rise in corruption and crime, with important agreements being signed with foreign companies behind closed doors. His MPs also shielded corrupt colleagues, engaging in practices previously unheard of in Sri Lankan politics, such as the import of substandard medicines under the emergency procurement system.

Like Rajapaksa before him, Wickremesinghe failed to gauge the public mood, and as a result, those opposed to Dissanayake were left with only fearmongering as their strategy.

A month has now passed since Dissanayake assumed office, and the dire predictions by their political opponents mentioned above have not materialized. The average Sri Lankan is satisfied with the steps the NPP government has taken so far. Farmers and fishermen have received fuel and fertilizer subsidies, pensioners have seen a modest pay rise, and underutilized land has been distributed to farmers who will work it under the guidance of the Department of Agriculture. There have been no shortages of goods, and many believe that corrupt individuals will soon be brought to justice. As promised, the NPP has continued with the IMF program, and diplomatic relations with Sri Lanka’s key partners remain cordial.

Given these developments, it is likely that many who did not vote for Dissanayake in September, particularly Wickremesinghe’s supporters, will now vote for the NPP in November.

Wickremesinghe, along with many senior political figures, has announced that he will not contest the general election. The Rajapaksa family has similarly opted out. This leaves Sajith Premadasa’s SJB as the main challenger to the NPP.

However, the SJB’s position heading into the November 14 election is significantly weaker than it was during the presidential race for two reasons. First, the party, which remained united during the presidential campaign due to a belief that Premadasa had a chance of winning, has begun to fracture since his defeat. In mid-October, Hirunika Premachandra, leader of the SJB women’s wing, resigned following an argument with Premadasa’s wife.

SJB MP Ajith Mannapperuma also announced that he would not contest the general election, despite figuring on the Gampaha District Nomination List. Mannapperuma explained that his decision was prompted by his removal as Gampaha District Organizer without prior consultation, just 24 hours after signing his nomination papers.

Earlier, popular actress Damitha Abeyratne, who played a key role in Premadasa’s presidential campaign, was denied a nomination due to a dispute with SJB Ratnapura District leader Hesha Vithanage. These internal rifts have disillusioned SJB supporters.

More crucially, the SJB leadership has not fully grasped why they lost the presidential election. Many within the party believe they were defeated because Wickremesinghe took a significant portion of their votes. They point to the fact that Dissanayake’s margin of victory over Premadasa was 1.3 million votes, while Wickremesinghe secured 2.2 million. SJB MPs believe that had Wickremesinghe not contested, those votes would have gone to Premadasa. Now that Wickremesinghe is not running in the general election, they are convinced they will attract those 2.2 million votes and potentially match or even surpass the NPP’s vote count on November 14.

However, analysts who have studied voting patterns suggest that this simplistic arithmetic is unlikely to hold.

Uditha Devapriya, chief international relations analyst at Factum, an Asia-Pacific-focused foreign policy think tank based in Colombo, told The Diplomat that Wickremesinghe’s voters are unlikely to support Premadasa this time.

“Many Sri Lankan politicians mistakenly believe that public sentiment can be reduced to simple arithmetic. During the run-up to the presidential election, many SJB members insisted that it would be impossible for the NPP, which secured only 3 percent of the vote in the 2019 presidential election, to surpass them, given that they had received over five million votes. But we all saw what happened,” he said.

“We must also remember that Premadasa received significant support from the North and East in September — those were not SJB votes but Tamil National Alliance (TNA) votes. The TNA will contest separately in this election. It’s likely that the NPP will see a substantial increase in its share of the Northern and Eastern vote in November,” Devapriya added.

The inability of the NPP’s opponents to understand the public’s desire for change has severely undermined their chances. By continuing to view elections through outdated frameworks, they have failed to address the electorate’s demand for new political practices, leaving them ill-prepared to compete against the NPP in the upcoming election⍐.