After missile attack, Israel may be ready to risk all-out war with Iran

For years, Israel and Iran avoided direct confrontation, as Israel secretly sabotaged Tehran’s interests and assassinated its officials without claiming responsibility, and Iran encouraged allies to attack Israel while rarely doing so itself. 

Now, the two countries seem prepared to risk a direct, prolonged and extraordinarily costly conflict.

After Israel invaded Lebanon to confront Iran’s strongest ally, Hezbollah, and Iran’s second massive missile attack on Israel in less than six months, Israel seems ready to strike Iran directly, in a much more forceful and public way than it ever has, and Iran has warned of massive retaliation if it does.

“We are in a different story right now,” said Yoel Guzansky, a former senior security official who oversaw Iran strategy on Israel’s National Security Council. “We have a consensus in Israel — among the military, the defense experts, analysts and politicians — that Israel should respond in force to Iran’s attack.”

To many Israelis, there is now little to lose: Iran’s efforts to strike the urban sprawl around Tel Aviv crossed a threshold that Tehran has never previously breached, even during its earlier missile attack in April, which targeted air bases but not civilian areas.

Critics of Israel often see the country as the primary instigator of unrest in the Middle East. But most Israelis see themselves as the victims of constant attack from Iran’s proxies — particularly Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon — and feel that they have not done enough to defend themselves. As a result, there are growing calls in Israel to make Iran fully accountable for its allies’ attacks, even if it risks an explosive reaction.

“Many in Israel see this as an opportunity to do more to inflict pain on Iran,” said Guzansky, who is now a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli research group. “To make it stop.”

Israel has yet to make a decision about exactly how to respond, six Israeli officials and a senior U.S. official said, and the extent of its reaction will be affected by the level of support — both practical and rhetorical — provided by the United States. U.S. forces helped Israel shoot down incoming missiles from both Iranian attacks.

The exact nature of its response may not become clear until after Rosh Hashana, the Jewish new year holiday, which runs until sundown Friday, according to the officials, all of whom requested anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

In talks with the Israeli government, the White House was expected to point to the relatively light damage caused by the Iranian missile attack Tuesday and urge Israeli restraint, the U.S. official said. These pleas were expected to have little impact, the official added.

But Israel’s counterattack is expected to be far more forceful than its response to Iran’s first round of ballistic missiles in April, when Israel conducted limited strikes on an Iranian air defense battery and did not officially acknowledge its involvement in that attack.

Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that they think the response in April was too little and too restrained, according to the senior U.S. official. Israeli leaders feel they were wrong to listen to the White House’s urging at the time to conduct a measured retaliatory strike, the official said.

This time, Israel might target oil production sites and military bases, the officials said. Damaging oil refineries could harm Iran’s already frail economy, as well as send global oil markets into turmoil a month before the U.S. elections.

Despite media speculation, Israel is not planning to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to four Israeli officials, even though Israel sees Iran’s efforts to create a nuclear weapons program as an existential threat.

Targeting nuclear sites, many of which are deep underground, would be hard without U.S. support. President Joe Biden said Wednesday that he would not support an attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear sites.

Still, Israel’s response “should be seen everywhere. It should be felt by Iran. It should hurt Iran,” Guzansky urged. “In order to do that, you cannot hit a radar station again.”

Israelis were deeply shaken by the Hamas-led attack on Israel of Oct. 7 and its aftermath, an assault for them on the very idea of Israel as a haven for Jews.

Now, many have an increased tolerance for short-term danger in order to achieve long-term security, according to Sima Shine, a former senior intelligence officer who helped guide Israel’s Iran strategy. More Israelis want the government to do “things that we didn’t do in the past, because we cannot be under ongoing attacks from all sides,” Shine said.

“This is part of the miscalculation of all our enemies around,” Shine said. “They don’t understand what Oct. 7 has done to the Israeli people, to their willingness to take much more risks.”

For Israelis, Iran also now seems more vulnerable than it has for years. After Israel killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership in recent weeks and destroyed large parts of the group’s missile stockpiles, Iran can no longer count on meaningful support from its proxy in Lebanon if Israel conducts a more forceful attack on Tehran.

“Iran is much weaker than before,” Guzansky said. “Israel is freer to do more.”

The New York Times 03-10-2024 

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More than 1,900 people have been killed and over 9,000 wounded in Lebanon in almost a year of cross-border fighting, with most of the deaths occurring in the past two weeks, according to Lebanese government statistics.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said about 1.2 million Lebanese had been displaced by Israeli attacks.

Israel strikes heart of Beirut, killing at least six

Reuters By Timour Azhari and Ari Rabinovitch October 3, 2024

BEIRUT/JERUSALEM, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Israel bombed Beirut early on Thursday, killing at least six people, after its forces suffered their deadliest day on the Lebanese front in a year of clashes with Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Israel said it had conducted a precise air strike on the Lebanese capital. Reuters witnesses reported hearing a massive blast, and a security source said it targeted a building in the district of Bachoura near parliament, the closest an Israeli strike has come to the central downtown district of Beirut.

Fire and smoke rise over Beirut's southern suburbs after a strike, amid ongoing hostilities
between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Sin El Fil,
Lebanon,October 3, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh

At least six people were killed and seven wounded, Lebanese health officials said. A photo circulating on Lebanese WhatsApp groups, which Reuters could not immediately verify, showed a heavily damaged building with its first floor on fire.

"Another sleepless night in Beirut. Counting the blasts shaking the city. No warning sirens. Not knowing what’s next. Only that uncertainty lies ahead. Anxiety and fear are omnipresent," U.N. special coordinator in Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, said on X on Thursday.Three missiles also hit the southern suburb of Dahiyeh, where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed last week, and loud blasts were heard, Lebanese security officials said.

Smoke rises after a strike amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces,
in Beirut’s southern suburbs and its surroundings, as seen from Hadath,
Lebanon October 3, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azaki

The elimination of Nasrallah dealt a major blow to the movement and removed Iran's most powerful proxy in the Middle East.

Hezbollah and Iran's other regional allies, Yemen's Houthis and armed groups in Iraq, have launched attacks in the region in support of Hamas in its war with Israel in Gaza.

The Houthis, who have been carrying out attacks in shipping lanes in and around the Red Sea that have disrupted international trade, said on Thursday they attacked Israel's commercial capital Tel Aviv with drones.

"The operation achieved its goals successfully by the arrival of the drones without being detected or shot down by the enemy," the group's military spokesperson Yahya Saree said.

Israel said it intercepted a suspicious aerial target in the area of central Israel early on Thursday.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) urged residents of Lebanese villages who have evacuated their homes not to return until further notice. "IDF raids are continuing," spokesperson Avichay Adraee said on X on Thursday.

A day after Iran fired more than 180 missiles into Israel, Israel said on Wednesday eight soldiers were killed in ground combat in south Lebanon as its forces thrust into its northern neighbour.

'IRAN'S AXIS OF EVIL'

The Israeli military said regular infantry and armoured units joined ground operations in Lebanon on Wednesday as Iran's missile attack and Israel's promise of retaliation fanned concern of a wider conflict in the oil-producing Middle East.

Hezbollah said its fighters engaged Israeli forces inside Lebanon. The movement reported ground clashes for the first time since Israeli forces pushed over the border on Monday. Hezbollah said it had destroyed three Israeli Merkava tanks with rockets near the border town of Maroun El Ras.

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel. REUTERS/Amir Cohen

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a condolence video, said: "We are at the height of a difficult war against Iran's Axis of Evil, which wants to destroy us.

"This will not happen because we will stand together and with God's help, we will win together."

Iran said on Wednesday its missile volley - its biggest ever assault on Israel - was over, barring further provocation, but Israel and the United States promised to hit back hard.

However, U.S. President Joe Biden said he would not support any Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear sites in response to its ballistic missile attack and urged Israel to act "proportionally" against its regional arch-foe.

Biden joined a call with other leaders of the Group of Seven major powers to coordinate a response, including new sanctions against Tehran, the White House said.

G7 leaders voiced "strong concern" over the Middle East crisis but said a diplomatic solution was still viable and a region-wide conflict was in no one's interest, a statement said.

China urged the United Nations Security Council to take "urgent actions" to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East.

Western nations have drafted contingency plans to evacuate citizens from Lebanon after Tuesday's dramatic escalation, but none have launched a large-scale military evacuation yet, though some are chartering aircraft as Beirut airport stays open.

Israeli rescue force members inspect the site where a missile fired from Iran towards Israel hit a school building, in central Israel. REUTERS/Amir Cohen

1.2 MILLION LEBANESE DISPLACED

Israel's addition of infantry and armoured troops from the 36th Division, including the Golani Brigade, the 188th Armoured Brigade and 6th Infantry Brigade, suggested that the operation might expand beyond limited commando raids.

The military has said its incursion is largely aimed at destroying tunnels and other infrastructure on the border and there were no plans for a wider operation targeting Beirut to the north or major cities in the south.

A billboard with a picture of the late Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is displayed on a building in Tehran, Iran. Majid Asgaripour/WANA

Nevertheless, it issued new evacuation orders for about two dozen towns along the southern border, telling residents to head north of the Awali River, which flows east to west some 60 km (40 miles) north of the Israeli frontier.

More than 1,900 people have been killed and over 9,000 wounded in Lebanon in almost a year of cross-border fighting, with most of the deaths occurring in the past two weeks, according to Lebanese government statistics.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said about 1.2 million Lebanese had been displaced by Israeli attacks.⍐