Renegotiating with IMF is complex..... Ali Sabry

 

France continues without a government

 

Macron rules out left-wing government for France, political deadlock continues

French President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out naming a left-wing government and said he will start yet another round of consultations with parties, prolonging the political deadlock following this summer’s snap elections.

Macron rules out left-wing government for France, political deadlock continues

French President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out naming a left-wing government and said he will start yet another round of consultations with parties, prolonging the political deadlock following this summer’s snap elections.

After receiving the far-right National Rally Monday, concluding another round of talks with political parties, Macron rejected left-wing claims to govern.

The leftist New popular front (NFP) has said it should run the government with prime minister nominee, Lucie Castets, after winning the most seats in parliament, but falling short of a majority.

Macron had until now ignored Castets’ nomination.

In a statement from his office, Macron said an NFP government would threaten “institutional stability”, as it would not survive a confidence vote from centrist and right wing parties, because the alliance includes the hard-left France unbowed (LFI), founded by Jean-Luc Melenchon, which has been branded as extreme.

A left-wing government "would be immediately censored by all the other groups represented in the National Assembly" and "the institutional stability of our country therefore requires us not to choose this option", Macron said in the statement.

"My responsibility is that the country is not blocked nor weakened," he added.

The President said he would launch a new round of talks on Tuesday and called for parties to cooperate, notably the Socialists, communists and greens in the NFP, and not the LFI.

LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard called Macron's comments an "unacceptable anti-democratic coup".

Macron has left Gabriel Attal to run a caretaker government since the election. The pressure is on to appoint a new government as the deadline to present a draft 2025 budget to address a growing debt is just over a month away⍐.

(RFI with newswires 27/08/2024)

Grief and shock in Melbourne after Tamil asylum seeker dies by self-immolation

 Grief and shock in Melbourne after Tamil asylum seeker dies by self-immolation

Refugee advocates have gathered to protest the death of a 23-year-old Tamil asylum seeker who died after setting himself on fire in Melbourne's south-east.

Friends of Mano Yogalingam told the ABC he had arrived in Australia from Sri Lanka in 2013 and had been on a bridging visa for roughly 11 years.

A Victoria Police spokesperson said emergency services were called to a skate park in Noble Park on Tuesday night.

A man with life-threatening injuries was taken to hospital, where he died on Wednesday, they said.

The Tamil Refugee Council said it believed the time Mr Yogalingham had spent on a bridging visa had been a contributing factor to his death.

A council spokesperson told the ABC Mr Yogalingham's claim for refugee status was previously rejected under the controversial "fast-track" system introduced in 2014, an outcome he had been seeking to appeal.

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has been contacted for comment and his department has been asked about the status of Mr Yogalingham's visa application.

In a brief statement, a Home Affairs spokesperson said the department's condolences were with family members and other people affected "at this difficult time".

"For privacy reasons, the department cannot comment on individual cases," they said.

The Tamil community is a minority group in Sri Lanka and its members are largely Hindu or Christian.

In recent years, Australian authorities have found Tamils in Sri Lanka "face a low risk of official or societal discrimination" and "a low risk of torture overall" — an assessment at odds with some international bodies and the United States.

Community in 'shock' at young father's sudden death

Friend Rathy Barthlote said Mr Yogalingham was a "strong person, very energetic, very lovely".

"That kind of strong person, it's happened to him, it's a shock for everyone," she said.

Rathy Barthlote has urged the federal government to reconsider its approach to asylum seekers
on bridging visas. (ABC News)

Friends of Mr Yogalingham gathered outside the Home Affairs department's Docklands office on Wednesday to protest the young father's death.

Ms Barthlote said many of those present had also spent years on bridging visas like Mr Yogalingham.

She urged the federal government to change its policies so that people who had lived in Australia for years on bridging visas could have certainty.

"Please, stop this limbo for all of our life, we don't want to lose anyone else anymore," Ms Barthlote said.

"Give us a permanent residency because we are living this life for more than a decade.

"We are contributing to this community as much as we can. We are the hard-working people, we are the carers and aged-care workers, we are doing business, everything we are doing our best for the government."⍐

Source:

ABC News

Mosquito-Borne Virus Concerning U.S. Towns

What to Know About the Rare But Deadly Mosquito-Borne Virus Concerning U.S. Towns

By Rebecca SchneidAugust 25, 2024 The Time

A coastal town in Massachusetts is shutting its parks, playgrounds, and fields from dusk to dawn due to concerns about the mosquito-borne virus Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE). 

Plymouth put the early closures in place on Aug. 23, and advised the public to remain cautious and follow the tips found on the Massachusetts Department of Health’s (DPH) website. The news comes after state health officials revealed on Aug. 16 that a man in his 80s had been infected with EEE after being exposed in Worcester County—reportedly the first human case in Massachusetts since 2020.

“As Mass DPH has now elevated Plymouth’s EEE risk status to high, it is important to take extra precautions when outdoors and follow state and local health guidelines to avoid unnecessary risk of exposure to EEE,” said Plymouth’s Commissioner of Health and Human Services, Michelle Bratti, in a press release. “The health and safety of our community, residents, and visitors remain our priority.”

Worcester County in Massachusetts is also concerned about the mosquito-borne virus. On Saturday, Aug. 24, state officials announced that they plan to spray for mosquitoes in sections of Worcester and Plymouth counties due to EEE.

Here is what you need to know.

What is Eastern equine encephalitis?

Per the Massachusetts DPH, EEE is very rare, but incredibly serious. Since the virus—that is spread through the bite of an infected mosquito—was first identified in Massachusetts in 1938, just over 115 cases have occurred. Furthermore, outbreaks of EEE usually occur in Massachusetts every 10-20 years.

The press release sent out by the town of Plymouth stated that, per the Massachusetts DPH, the “EEE fatality rate in humans varies from 33% to 70%, with most deaths occurring 2–10 days after the onset of symptoms.”

Symptoms can include fever, headache, vomiting, diarrhea, seizures, behavioral changes, and drowsiness. According to the Massachusetts DPH, inflammation and swelling of the brain, called encephalitis, is the most dangerous and frequent serious complication of EEE.

EEE can exacerbate quickly and some patients may go into a coma within a week.

Humans and some mammals are what’s known as “dead-end hosts,” meaning they do not spread the virus, even though they get sick, to mosquitoes that bite them.

How is Eastern equine encephalitis tested and treated? 

EEE is diagnosed through symptoms and through testing spinal fluid or blood, which can show if the virus or viral antibodies are present in the body.

There are currently no vaccines for humans or targeted treatments for EEE. Per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), clinical management of the virus is advised. Patients with EEE require close monitoring by their health care provider, who may prescribe pain control or other treatments to deal with the specific symptoms of EEE.

Overall, prevention is key. In Plymouth’s Aug. 23 notice, the city recommended certain strategies for citizens to avoid mosquito bites, including draining standing water, wearing long sleeves and pants during peak mosquito hours, and installing screens in your home. They also recommended utilizing bug repellant, specifically a repellent with an EPA-registered ingredient.

Animal owners should reduce potential mosquito breeding sites on their property by eliminating standing water from containers such as buckets, tires, and wading pools—especially after heavy rains.

What U.S. towns have raised their EEE risk level to "critical" or "high"?

Four towns in Massachusetts have raised the EEE risk level to “critical”—Douglas, Oxford, Sutton, and Webster.

According to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, the towns of Carver, Dudley, Middleborough, Northbridge, and Uxbridge also raised their EEE risk levels to “high,” joining Plymouth.

Concern is also mounting over the West Nile virus, which is primarily spread by mosquitoes. In July, multiple local health departments warned citizens after officials detected mosquitoes carrying West Nile virus in states across the U.S. As of Aug. 20, the CDC had recorded 216 cases in 33 states in 2024.

On Aug. 24, it was confirmed that Dr. Anthony Fauci, who served as the chief medical advisor to the President from 2021 to 2022, had been hospitalized after being infected with West Nile virus. He is now recovering at home⍐.

Nearly 1 in 3 UK Residents Miss Mortgage Payments

Nearly 1 in 3 UK Residents Miss Payments as Mortgage Arrears Soar by 50% Amidst Rising Interest Rates

UK government's Mortgage Charter has helped over 1.1 million mortgage holders in recent months

By Niloy Chakrabarti Niloy Chakrabarti Published 08/27/24 IBT

The UK Department for Work and Pensions-backed Money and Pensions Services (MaPS) October 2023 survey of UK residents revealed that 30% had missed at least one payment during the year, with many experiencing the setback for the first time. The research showed missed payments were led by credit card and utility defaults, but more people are also beginning to miss rent and mortgage payments.

Elevated interest rates and the end of fixed-rate mortgage deals for almost 1.6 million UK homeowners this year could increase mortgage payments by an average of £1,800 annually as they transition to higher rates. The situation puts nearly a quarter of UK mortgage holders at heightened risk of missing payments as thousands remain worried about losing their homes.

Massive Surge In Repossession Claims Cases

UK Ministry of Justice data shows that mortgage repossession claims in England and Wales reached 5,182 for Q1 2024, a 40% jump in 18 months. Meanwhile, recent Bank of England (BoE) data revealed mortgage balances with arrears jumped over 50% in Q4 2023 compared to 2022 to reach £20.3 billion. Furthermore, Hargreaves Lansdown analysts estimated that mortgage payments will grow to account for a quarter of annual income for millions of homeowners when fixed-rate deals end by 2024-end. A total of 2.1 million mortgage holder could witness mortgage payments surpass 25% of their disposable income, which amplifies default risks. The experts further calculated that close to 400,000 households with insufficient savings and inadequate spending habits could be a "critical risk" of slipping into arrears.

UK Ministry of Justice data shows that mortgage repossession claims in England and Wales reached 5,182 for Q1 2024, a 40% jump in 18 months

Government Ramps Up Measures To Help Mortgage Holders

The UK government recently rolled out the Mortgage Charter to stop banks from proceeding in repossession cases after initial non-payment. It clearly states that borrowers won't face eviction without consent within a year of their first mortgage default. The charter pushes lenders to help borrowers navigate rising living costs. Homebuyers can seek help from lenders without impacting their credit scores, and they have the option to temporarily defer payments or switch to interest-only payments to reduce the load on monthly household budgets. The Financial Conduct Authority estimated that over 1 million mortgage holders have benefitted from the charter, which has the backing of 90% of the mortgage market.

Pleas For Assistance From Charities Have Tripled

Charities think the number of people asking them for financial assistance has tripled since interest rates started climbing in 2022. Money Advice Trust's Jane Tully described the current landscape of elevated living costs as challenging times for mortgage holders. The trust runs the free debt advice service through National Debtline. Tully also highlighted the financial risks homeowners face when their fixed-rate deals end to significantly increase monthly repayments, adding that more mortgage holders are contacting National Debt.

MaPS urges financially vulnerable people, especially those about to miss payments, to act by contacting charities or negotiating better rates or flexible payment options with their creditors. MaPS head of guidance Charlotte Jackson shared a surprising estimate that one in seven people wouldn't take action if they were struggling financially, which increases their risks to financial stability by many folds over the long term. Meanwhile, defaulters can seek free debt advice to have some control over the situation⍐. 

Tamil Guardian Interview with TNA MP Ariyanenthiran 08 January 2014

 

The Tamil Guardian caught up with the Tamil National Alliance's Batticaloa District Parliamentarian, P. Ariyanenthiran in a phone interview last month, and discussed issues such as the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, the Northern Provincial Council elections and the TNA's future plans.

See full interview below.

⓿This article was ten years old-ENB

TAMIL GUARDIAN: After the successful elections, which saw the vast majority of Tamils vote for the TNA, there are concerns that the TNA is acting against what it pledged during its campaign. For example, while [LTTE leader] Prabhakaran‘s picture was used during electioneering, recent comments in parliament by Sritharan, who praised Prabhakaran, were denounced as extremist by Sumanthiran and Sampanthan. What do you say to those allegations? What do you think the people voted for?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

I also took part in election campaigning in the North-East, residing there for three weeks. In truth, what we clearly said was that we did not campaign asking for development, or for a bridge, or for sports grounds, or for any support. We campaigned for the - in other words, for 30 years there was a non-violent struggle, then an armed struggle took place as the next stage for 30 years. We have faced many losses during this.

Approximately over 50,000 Maaveerar and over 150,000 civilians were affected by the conflict. In addition to that, for that's not all, we still haven’t come out of the conflict's suffering, for example those who are disabled having lost their limbs, widows, children unable to access an education. We, who have seen many losses such as these, certainly campaigned for votes calling for rights – that we must win these rights.

The Chief Minister of the Northern Provincial Council, C.V. Wigneswaran also called the leader of the LTTE a Maaveerar. It was that photograph you would have noticed published in the Uthayan, under the heading “Prabhakaran the Maaveerar”. Therefore, to be honest, there continues to be criticism that we obtained votes from the people, but are not reflecting that [mandate on which we obtained the votes] in the work we do. There is one thing that we can see clearly here. After campaigning for votes from the electorate on one issue, it is understandable and to be honest, inevitable, that a concern will arise amongst the people that we are detracting from those issues because we don't discuss them and even after the elections we fail to address them.

However in my opinion, even if the leaders within the TNA do not openly discuss these issues, they are doing a number of things such as the issue of a political solution, followed by calling for the war crimes issue to be prioritised. Also on that, if you look at Sampanthan's parliamentary speech, he has said [this] three times, even at present. We can see that along with a number of other things, the main thrust of his speech is that Sri Lankan government continues to violate human rights and therefore an investigation must be launched in response to these human rights violations.

Sumanthiran also said in Parliament that both sides must be investigated. We need to view that as his personal opinion, but in spite that, what he tells us when he speaks to us, drawing on some legal points, is that we cannot call on the international community for an investigation into just one side. Therefore there is no second word that the TNA stands for the need for an investigation. However, I do accept that because different individuals say different things, there is a feeling of confusion amongst the people. Therefore, the people should understand this clearly. As far as we are concerned, whoever grinds the paddy, we need to get the rice. Therefore when they express these statements, so long as the target is correct, we should accept it.

TAMIL GUARDIAN: In your opinion, why do you think the Tamil people voted for the TNA is such unprecedented numbers?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

To be honest the reason why people voted in this election was the horrors that unfolded in 2009, that the Sri Lankan government must be punished for the suffering experienced by the Tamil people. They used that weapon – the weapon of a vote – to punish them. The people of the Northern Province have very clearly illustrated our grievances and frustrations at the Northern Provincial Council election. I would view the casting of these votes was the people giving their mandate for an investigation into the horrors of Mullivaikkaal, for punishment for what took place, and that human rights violations must be brought to the International Criminal Court. If we are just going to call for development, then it is possible that can be done using Douglas Devananda [leader of the paramilitary party, EPDP]. Therefore, to be honest, whether it's the TNA leaders, or whatever anyone else says, the people in the Northern Province voted for the Sri Lankan government to be brought to an investigation at the upcoming UN Human Rights Council session in March. I have no doubts about saying this confidently.

TAMIL GUARDIAN: Before the election, the TNA stressed the need to merge the Northern and Eastern provinces together again. There was also talk of forming an informal body for both provinces to work together. How will you take this forward?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

In truth, this is reason why the Government is preventing the Northern Provincial council from working fully, that we would or should raise such an issue [as the North-East merger]. The Sri Lankan government's plan is to decimate the concept of a Tamil homeland. That's what you would have seen as the systematic [Sinhala] colonisation, whether that's it Batticaloa, or whether that's in Trincomalee, or whether it's in Mullaitheevu. The Sri Lankan government's intention is to carry out a plan to break the land mass into pieces, destroying the concept of a Tamil homeland.

To me it seems that some countries are supporting this agenda. These countries are – now, even the country that neighbours us, if you look at many issues, avoids calling for the merger of the North-East or the North-East as the homeland. This is a grave issue. Therefore, we all – whether that's the diaspora, the TNA here, or Tamil Nadu people – should prioritise this issue and take such an issue forward. Certainly, with regards to the Northern Provincial Council, if the government would allow the TNA, as the ruling party, to work correctly and with ease, our political agenda could certainly be carried out as the 'North-East'...for example, even if we are the opposition party in the Eastern province, there would be an opportunity for TNA officials, including the East's opposition leader, to come together and carry out many common plans. The Sri Lankan government is determined that such an opportunity should not arise. Therefore we need to manage this very carefully. I think we need to make clear at all places that we cannot abide by this.

TAMIL GUARDIAN: You said that you see how the difference in the TNA’s actions and rhetoric before and after the elections may be perceived as problematic. Do you think there is a disconnect between the TNA leadership and the people? There has also been talk of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, for which there has been no clear stance by the TNA. You have said that you want a CoI, however now there is talk of the TRC. What is your stance?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

Reports on the South Africa’s peace initiative came to light again last week. Our parliamentarians travelling there and back was highlighting in the news here. We have made a clear decision within our parliamentary delegation, and we have expressed it clearly. As our problem is internationalized, whatever country it is, whether it's South Africa, or it can be America, or Britain, or it can even be India, if any of them come wanting to talk about peace initiatives, we won't being saying no and disregarding them. Come, and do your peace initiative. However, if any country acts to disrupt or detract a possible international investigation at the upcoming March session, we are clear that we will not cooperate by that. Certainly, I can clearly say that no discussions will take place with South Africa before March. Therefore, without saying not to come and no to their efforts upfront, it is necessary for us to respond to them diplomatically – and we have. Therefore this issue, I don't think this issue will happen.

In terms of the people, the people in the North-East, they are extremely clear - after all this loss, there must be an investigation into the loss, and alongside that, there must be a political solution. But, the situation here is that the people here trust the leadership of the TNA. They accept their actions. Therefore, there will be definitely be differences between the words used by the diaspora Tamils, or diaspora political figures, or organizations, and the words the TNA use, living here, having taken an oath within the Sri Lankan government. Therefore, the need to understand these differences is an issue for everyone. However, [on whether the] TNA is going astray, has it deviated from its goal, everyone has the responsibility to call up the TNA and ask them. The Tamil people in the diaspora have it, the people here in the North-East have it. They have the right to do so. Therefore, we do need to deal with this maturity. It is easy to criticize just the leadership, but that criticism will only end up supporting the Sri Lankan government; it will not assist the Tamil people.

TAMIL GUARDIAN:  Coming back to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, are you saying that the TNA will not accept the TRC as a solution?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

Yes, yes, for now. Although that doesn't mean that we will say that we have to put an end to the initiative. We won't say that.

TAMIL GUARDIAN: But what will the TNA do if the TRC is used as a stalling measure to obstruct an international investigation in March?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

We definitely will not allow any initiative to disrupt this before March.

TAMIL GUARDIAN: David Cameron said during his recent visit that he would demand a Commission of inquiry during the UN Human Rights Council session in March, if there is no credible progress by then. What will the TNA being doing to support this call?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

Yes, definitely...not only this March, we have continuously, even since 2009, on [the issue of] war crimes. Although the genocide began before 1983, we have been continuously pressing the international community for an international investigation into the overwhelming loss that occurred during May 2009, with the massacre of over a hundred thousand people. We will definitely continue to push this agenda this year too and the TNA is already working on the plans for this, very carefully and methodically.

TAMIL GUARDIAN: As you have said, the NPC is being blocked by the government. It is going to be difficult to go forward with any plan and there are no historic precedents for the government to allow anything that would provide security to the Tamil people. How long will the TNA continue to engage in the NPC, bearing these circumstances in mind?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

Dismissing the governor and demilitarization were issues stated publicly in our election manifesto, said by the Chief Minister himself, and said by our parliamentarians. These were the statements we made during the election. What is frustrating though, is that as a result of us calling for the governor to be changed, what the Sri Lankan government has done is not to change the First Secretary – she's a woman – even though letters have been sent clearly stating that she is not cooperating with the Chief Minister.

Therefore, it is now revealed, that the TNA, which asked for the Governor to be changed, is unable to even change the First Secretary in the Provincial Council. Therefore, we need to decide whether we continue this fight legally, or encourage the people to protest and thereby take the issue that the Northern Provincial Council is unable to function and that the Sri Lankan government is an obstacle, to the international community. I think this is necessary. Now, three months have passed. I think when January comes - that the TNA brings out events, news about the [non-functioning] of the Provincial Council. This is the need of the hour. I believe the TNA has made preparations to undertake such tasks.

TAMIL GUARDIAN: There are some immediate issues that you said need to be addressed through the NPC, for example demilitarisation, resettlement and employment. Are those issues being addressed? How are you doing this?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

The thing is, that the Chief Minister is continuing to undertake whatever tasks he was doing previously and that were within his control. However, even though the Northern Provincial Council was determined by the people, with 30 seats assigned to it, and it is acting in a democratic way, it is being ignored. The Governor continues to oppose the Chief Minister in his work. Even today – I think yesterday afternoon, after the Chief Minister spoke – the Governor, on his own accord, called all the heads of department, and made clear to them what he is capable of within the 13th Amendment. What this shows is that there are two bodies. What he has said, without saying publicly, is that even if the TNA was chosen by the people, you don't need to listen to their views, accept my views.

Therefore, this has not just to do with the governor, the Sri Lankan government and the president are behind this. Therefore the government is using this dispute to teach the Tamil people a lesson that the ruling party from which the government is formed and to which the president belongs, should be the party from which the Chief Minister should come from; even if you cast your votes for the TNA which is in the opposition in national politics as your ruling party in the province, we will not let them function. We cannot continue like this, we need to take the necessary action. Therefore as you said, even the day to day concerns, basic needs, and housing problems have not been freely addressed by the Council. They have plans for it, but whether it is possible to action them is questionable, I think.

TAMIL GUARDIAN: The east has seen several years of militarization and oppression. What is the situation in the East at the moment?

ARIYANENTHIRAN:

In the east, severe colonization, land grabs and prolonged detention of IDPs in camps taking place. In particular, within the Trincomalee district, people in Sampur have been in refugee camps for seven years, continuing to live a refugee existence. The Indian government and the Sri Lankan government is carrying out what I would say is a act of joint conspiracy, not a joint act, to keep the people in the refugee camps, in order to build a power plant. However, the Sri Lankan government has stopped the usual supply of food to even the people living in refugee camps. They have ordered that the people must be resettled elsewhere. However, the people living there are steadfast, saying, we must live in our own lands. This is an incident taking place in Trincomalee currently, but colonization and land grabs continue to take place in Trincomalee. Similarly, in Batticaloa district, Amparai district, and in all places, whether its grazing lands, or ordinary lands, border villages of Tamil people speaking, are step by step, being surrounded by Sinhala colonization.

Even if we, as the TNA, have carried out awareness events regarding this, we have also taken some legal measures on this, with some cases being taken to the courts. However, we know what the courts will be like. Although, despite this, we still endeavoring to see if it can be halted using the law of the land. Therefore the issue of land grabs is something that is continuing. In addition to this, is the military's presence. When we say that, in the East, or the North, if we want to freely organise a protest, or a TNA political debate, or a TNA organised function, the military intelligence officers will appear before even the people. If the TNA announce an event is starting at 9, those who arrive at 8:30, will be the military. What they come and do is to film the people, and asking them, why are you going, who told you. When they [military] investigate how the TNA MPs associated with this [event], they [Tamil people] are scared and this stops them from attending.

In addition to this are the former combatants, those who were freed by the Government. They are unable to work, and forced to be inside their home. The reason being that when the military intelligence officers go and investigate them daily, their neighbors are also scared to employ these former combatants for work, even as an ordinary driver, or other jobs. Scared that they too will be harrassed, they don't include them [former combatants]. They avoid employing them, isolating them. This is happening in the Eastern province, it's also happening in Mullaitheevu – when I travelled there during the election campaign, it was taking place there too. Therefore, the ostracism of them [former combatants] is taking place. Another thing is the government is doing is to incorporate the former combatants into the military, and using them as another paramilitary, this has been reported on in several papers. Therefore such severe intimidation continues to take place.

In addition to this, what we can say is a truly awful occurrence, is that since May 2009, in the five years that have passed, cultural degradation is rampant. In particular, during the time of the armed conflict, decorum was prioritised, but now in the North-East, decorum is in the negative. It's absolute zero. Even this is a planned action, to divert young men and young women towards drug abuse, making them drink at bars, degrading culture, showing them online porn - whatever it is, it's taking place across the North-East. Their cultural symbols are being destroyed, Buddhist temples are being built – one could just continue listing examples of what is taking place⍐.

 

This handout photograph taken and released by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Service on August 23, 2024, shows Ukraine's President
Volodymyr Zelensky (R) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi posing at the entrance of the Mariinskyi Palace
ahead of their meeting, in Kyiv, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
(Photo by Handout / UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE / AFP)

OPINION: Modi’s Visit to Ukraine Opens Opportunities for India as Mediator

The evolving relationship between India and Ukraine offers India the potential of emerging as a mediator in the ongoing war. Yet despite the opportunities, geopolitical challenges.

By Simon Hutagalung August 28, 2024 KPost

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Ukraine in August 2024 marked a significant moment in India-Ukraine relations. The historic meeting between Modi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was not only a testament to strengthening bilateral ties, but also hinted at a broader diplomatic role India might play in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. India’s involvement could present a unique solution to the crisis, leveraging its neutral stance and diplomatic influence to facilitate peace negotiations.

The diplomatic relationship between India and Ukraine has been evolving since Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Initially, ties between the two countries were largely driven by economic considerations, with Ukraine becoming a key partner for India in sectors such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and defense. Ukraine’s robust defense industry has attracted Indian interest, especially in the areas of aircraft, missiles, and military equipment. However, despite these economic ties, political engagement between India and Ukraine remained relatively low-key until recently.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit marks a turning point in India-Ukraine relations. The visit highlights a renewed focus on deepening bilateral ties through expanded cooperation in trade, technology, and education. One significant area of collaboration is defense, with India looking to enhance its defense capabilities by leveraging Ukraine’s expertise in defense production. This partnership aligns with India’s broader strategy to diversify its defense imports and reduce its dependence on traditional suppliers like Russia. Additionally, India’s interest in Ukraine’s strategic position in Eastern Europe reflects its aim to increase its influence in the region and strengthen its global presence.

Ukraine’s robust defense industry has attracted Indian interest, especially in the areas of aircraft, missiles, and military equipment.

While Modi’s visit underscores the growing importance of India-Ukraine relations, it also raises questions about India’s role in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. India has historically adhered to a policy of non-alignment, refusing to take sides in conflicts between major powers. This stance has allowed India to maintain friendly relations with both Russia and Ukraine, even as tensions between the two countries escalated into full-scale war in 2022. India’s neutral position has been reflected in its diplomatic statements, with calls for peace, dialogue, and respect for territorial integrity. However, as the war drags on and global pressure mounts, India faces increasing expectations to play a more active role.

India’s potential as a mediator in the Russo-Ukrainian War stems from its unique position in global politics. Unlike Western powers that have taken a clear stance against Russia’s actions in Ukraine, India has maintained a more balanced approach. This diplomatic neutrality, combined with India’s strong ties to both Russia and Ukraine, makes it a credible candidate for mediation. Moreover, India’s reputation as a peace-loving nation and its historical involvement in international peacekeeping efforts lend further weight to its role as a potential mediator.

However, the challenges of mediation in the Russo-Ukrainian War cannot be overlooked. India’s relationship with Russia is a key factor that complicates its role as a neutral mediator. Russia has been one of India’s most important allies since the Cold War, and the two countries share strong defense and energy ties. India relies heavily on Russian military equipment, and any perceived shift in India’s stance could jeopardize this crucial partnership. Additionally, India’s growing economic ties with Western countries, particularly the United States and the European Union, add another layer of complexity. As Western powers continue to impose sanctions on Russia, India must carefully navigate its diplomatic relations to avoid alienating any of its major partners.

Despite these challenges, India has a unique opportunity to enhance its global standing by contributing to a peace process. If India can successfully mediate between Russia and Ukraine, it would not only bolster its reputation as a responsible global power but also strengthen its influence in international affairs. This would align with India’s broader goal of becoming a leading voice in global governance, particularly in multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and G20. India’s active involvement in the peace process could also enhance its strategic interests in Europe and strengthen its partnerships with both Eastern and Western powers.

Donbas-A town and two villages in the heart of Ukraine’s coal-mining region have likely fallen to
Russian forces. Zelensky said reinforcements are being sent to help.

India’s potential role as a mediator can be informed by its past experiences in international conflict resolution. India has a long history of supporting peacekeeping efforts and has contributed to United Nations missions in conflict zones around the world. Moreover, India’s non-alignment policy has often positioned it as a neutral party capable of facilitating dialogue between opposing sides. For example, India played a key role in mediating the Sri Lankan civil war and supporting peace initiatives in Afghanistan. These experiences provide valuable lessons that could be applied to the current situation in Ukraine.

However, it is important to recognize that the complexities and scale of the Russo-Ukrainian War differ significantly from other conflicts India has been involved in. The geopolitical stakes are much higher, and the involvement of major global powers such as the United States, European Union, and China adds layers of complexity. Any attempt at mediation will require India to carefully balance its relations with all parties involved while remaining committed to the principles of peaceful resolution and respect for international law.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine represents a significant step forward in India-Ukraine relations and signals India’s growing interest in playing a more active role on the global stage. The possibility of India emerging as a mediator in the Russo-Ukrainian War is both an opportunity and a challenge. While India’s neutral stance, diplomatic credibility, and historical ties with both Russia and Ukraine make it a suitable candidate for mediation, the complexities of the conflict and the need to balance strategic interests present significant hurdles. Ultimately, India’s ability to contribute to peace in the region will depend on its diplomatic agility, strategic foresight, and commitment to upholding the principles of non-alignment and peaceful resolution of conflicts. If successful, India’s involvement in resolving the Russo-Ukrainian War could enhance its global standing and solidify its role as a key player in international diplomacy⍐.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post or ENB

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Simon Hutagalung

Simon Hutagalung is a retired diplomat from the Indonesian Foreign Ministry who received his master's degree in political science and comparative politics from the City University of New York.

China, US hold new round of strategic communication

 

Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs (fourth right), and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan (third left) pose for photos before talks in Beijing on August 27, 2024. Photo: AFP

‘Dialogues help prevent uncertainty, further stabilize ties in remainder of the year’

By Yang Sheng and Liu Xin Published: Aug 28, 2024

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan arrived in Beijing on Tuesday to kick off a three-day visit to China, making him the first US national security advisor to visit China in eight years. Experts said that the visit showed that the two sides are trying to prevent uncertainty and further stabilize bilateral ties in the remainder of the year. 

Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, held a new round of China-US strategic communication with Sullivan in Beijing on Tuesday, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, said that China-US relations not only matter to both countries but also the whole world. Over the past few years, the relationship between the two countries has been full of twists and turns, according to Yuyuantantian, a media arm of China Media Group. 

It is the common responsibility of China and the US to implement the consensus reached at the San Francisco summit between the two heads of state, and it is also the main task of this strategic communication, Wang said. 

It is hoped that the two sides will have in-depth communication on this in the next two days, so as to push China-US relations, following the vision of San Francisco summit, to overcome disturbances and remove obstacles, and truly achieve stable, healthy and sustainable development, Wang stressed. 

Sullivan said that this is his first visit to China as the president's National Security Adviser, and he thanks the Chinese side for its thoughtful arrangements. President Biden is committed to managing the US-China relationship responsibly, avoiding competition from turning into conflict, and cooperating in areas of common interest, Sullivan said. 

Sullivan said the US side looks forward to having fruitful dialogue with the Chinese side on a wide range of issues through this strategic communication and implementing the consensus reached by the two heads of state, according to Yuyuantantian. 

Chinese experts said that China and the US have maintained frequent communication via different channels in the year, and Sullivan's visit showed that the US wants to maintain this kind of communication. China can also use this as a chance to help the US to be more reasonable and rational when handling bilateral ties. 

China and the US still have many problems and frictions, and if China clearly identifies the US as a partner that can be cooperated with while the US sees China as a competitor, this will make bilateral ties unstable. As the world is still in turbulence, cooperation between the two major powers is highly expected by the international community, analysts said.

Lü Xiang, an expert on US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Tuesday rather than focusing on long-term issues, the talks will largely center around pragmatic and hot spot issues.  

China is also looking for stable rather than intensified bilateral relations with the US, in at least the second half of this year, and this is the common ground shared by both sides, Lü said.

Redline not to be crossed 

One of the key topics will be the Taiwan question, and the US will be urged to stop playing its old tactic of using the "Taiwan card" to pressure China before holding dialogues, analysts said. 

China will focus on raising serious concerns regarding the Taiwan question, addressing development rights and strategic security in discussions with the US during Sullivan's visit to Beijing, China's Foreign Ministry said on Sunday.

Despite China's opposition, the US has continued exchanges with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities of Taiwan. For example, the head of the external affairs authority of Taiwan island, Lin Chia-lung and secretary-general of Taiwan's security council Wu Jaushieh, recently traveled to the Washington, DC area for talks in a mechanism known as the "special channel" with the US side, the Financial Times reported. 

DPP secretary-general Lin Yu-chang is reportedly to visit the US on August 31. Previously, Taiwan media und.com reported that Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te intended to transit through the continental US to visit "allies," but the US is reluctant to allow a high-profile stopover due to its domestic elections and will only permit Lai to transit through Hawaii. 

The Taiwan question is a critical redline in US-China relations. By arranging visits of high-level DPP officials to the US before Sullivan's trip to China, the US seeks to signal support for the DPP and exert pressure on China. However, China remains steadfast and uncompromising on the Taiwan question, Xin Qiang, director of the Taiwan Studies Center at Fudan University, told the Global Times. 

In US strategy, Taiwan is viewed as a pawn whose significance depends on US foreign policy needs. When the US seeks to pressure China, it will take provocative actions regarding the island, while if it deems closer relations with China are necessary, it will restrict the island of Taiwan's actions to avoid escalating tensions, Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times.   

While Taiwan may perceive itself as crucial in international affairs, its importance is relatively minor in US strategic calculations, Li said. 

"We hope the US will align its actions with its statements, genuinely respect China's core interests, particularly regarding Taiwan island, and work together to stabilize bilateral relations as both sides look forward to this round of strategic dialogue," Li said⍐.