Resignation of Mullaitivu District Judge

New information has emerged

Communique reveals AG met Saravanaraja at latter’s request

Monday, 2 October 2023 

New information has emerged indicating that the meeting on 21 September involving Attorney General Sanjay Rajaratnam and the former Mullaitivu district judge T. Saravanaraja, took place at the judge's request to the Judicial Services Commission, seeking the Attorney General's assistance in two upcoming cases against him.

Following his resignation and self-exile Saravanaraja had publicly claimed that the Attorney General had ‘summoned’ him and attempted to pressure him during the meeting to reverse orders he had issued relating to the Kurunthamalai case.

This statement sparked public outrage directed towards the Attorney General, with many highlighting that he lacked the authority to ‘summon’ a judge.

However, in a communique seen by the Daily FT, it appears Secretary of the Judicial Services Commission H.S Somaratne had written to the Attorney General on 15 September requesting the latter to undertake the defence on behalf of Saravanaraja who has been named as the first respondent in two cases before the Court of Appeal concerning the controversial Kurunthamalai case. 

Sources from the Attorney General’s Department maintain that Rajaratnam had merely held a consultation with Saravanaraja on the day to discuss the strategy for the defence proceedings relating to the cases which are scheduled to be taken up on 11 October before the Court of Appeal. 

BASL to meet CJ about allegations

TM 02 Oct 2023 | BY Buddhika Samaraweera

Will hand over letters to IGP and Public Sec. Min. seeking inquiry: Nawaratna

The Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) is to reach out to Chief Justice, President's Counsel (PC) Jayantha Jayasuriya, Public Security Minister Tiran Alles, and Inspector General of Police (IGP) Chandana D. Wickramaratne today (2 October) regarding the allegations that surround the resignation of Mullaitivu District Judge and Magistrate T. Saravanarajah, and to seek a transparent investigation into the incident, The Daily Morning learns.

In a letter dated 23 September addressed to the Judicial Services Commission (JSC), Saravanarajah had tendered his resignation from a range of posts that he had held – viz. the posts of district judge, magistrate, family court judge, primary court judge, small claims court judge, and juvenile court judge – the letter read, due to threats to his life and mental stress.

Speaking to The Daily Morning yesterday (1 October), BASL President attorney Kaushalya Nawaratna said that they had been given an appointment at 9.30 a.m. today to meet Jayasuriya to discuss the matter. In addition, he said that they would hand over letters to Alles and Wickramaratne, seeking a thorough investigation into the factors that led to the Magistrate’s resignation, and for a report to be submitted to the public as quickly as possible.

"We have got to look into these actions in the background where the Judge/Magistrate had alleged that his life was under threat, and there are so many news items, especially on social media platforms, that the state intelligence services were keeping surveillance on him. There is also an allegation that his security was reduced. All these matters are of extreme importance as far as the entire legal fraternity is concerned. We want to have these allegations verified. In case they are proven to be true, it is of a serious nature with regard to the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law," he added.

Minister of Justice, Prison Affairs and Constitutional Reforms Dr. Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe PC and Minister of Public Security Tiran Alles were not available for comment.

Reports circulating on social media and online platforms read that Saravanarajah had resigned and left the country, and that he had received death threats in connection with the lawsuit pertaining to the Kurundimale Vihara (Kurundi Temple) in Mullaitivu.

Following his resignation, President Ranil Wickremesinghe had directed President's Secretary Saman Ekanayake to launch an immediate and comprehensive investigation into the matter. The directive is said to have stemmed from the fact that the Judge/Magistrate had, it is reported, resigned without formally informing the Police or the JSC about the alleged death threats that he had received.

The Hindu September 29, 2023 - COLOMBO Meera Srinivasan

Spotlight on independence of judiciary in Sri Lanka after Mullaitivu judge resigns 

Mullaitivu District Judge T. Saravanaraja had written to the Secretary of Sri Lanka’s Judicial Services Commission, on his decision to resign owing to ‘threat of my life and due to lot of stress’

A district judge from Mullaitivu in Sri Lanka’s Northern Province has resigned and fled the country citing threats to his life, Tamil media in Sri Lanka reported on September 29.

In a letter that several publications reproduced in their news reports, Mullaitivu District Judge T. Saravanaraja — who recently ruled on two cases pertaining to a religious site in Kurunthurmalai and a remembrance event to commemorate LTTE member Thileepan — had written to the Secretary of Sri Lanka’s Judicial Services Commission last week, on his decision to resign owing to “threat of my life and due to lot of stress”.

CID inquiry into resignation of Mullaitivu District Judge

News Wire October 2, 2023 

Minister of Public Security Tiran Alles has issued a directive for a comprehensive investigation into the events that led to the resignation of Mullaitivu District Judge T. Saravanarajah.

According to reports, Minister Tiran Alles has issued instructions to the Criminal Investigations Department (CID) to conduct a comprehensive probe into the resignation of the Judge and his departure from the country. 

In a letter addressed to the Judicial Services Commission, dated September 23, 2023, Mullaitivu District Judge T. Saravanarajah informed his decision to step down from the post of District Judge, Magistrate, Family Court Judge, Primary Court Judge, Small Claims Court Judge, and Juvenile Court Judge.

The Mullaitivu District Judge further stated in his letter, that the decision has been taken due to threats to his life and stress, hinting at the Kurunthur Malai case. 

In June 2022, the Mullaitivu District Judge had issued an order prohibiting any form of construction at Kurunthur Malai, an ancient hindu temple. 

However, Justice Saravanarajah is reported to have left Sri Lanka after handing in his resignation in which he had cited threats to his life and undue pressure from state authorities over his ruling pertaining to the Kurunthur Malai case. 

Following his resignation, several law associations in Sri Lanka had called on the state authorities to conduct an inquiry into the allegations, while pointing out the threat to the state’s judiciary. (NewsWire) 

Mullaitivu judge resigns citing death threats

The Island LK 2023/10/1 By Saman Indrajith

President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was in Berlin on Friday issued directives to his secretary, Saman Ekanayake, for an immediate and comprehensive investigation into the abrupt resignation of Mullaitivu District Judge and Magistrate, T. Saravanarajah, who presided over the controversial Kurundimale Viharaya case. The judge cited receiving death threats as the reason for his resignation, sources of the President’s office said.

The President’s decision to order an investigation stemmed from the fact that the Judge resigned without formally informing the police or the Judicial Service Commission about the alleged death threats against him, according to sources.

In a letter dated September 23, 2023, addressed to the Judicial Services Commission, Saravanarajah conveyed his decision to step down from various judicial roles, including District Judge, Magistrate, Family Court Judge, Primary Court Judge, Small Claims Court Judge, and Juvenile Court Judge.

Reports circulating on social media and online platforms suggested that he had left the country for India. In these reports, he allegedly informed web journalists that he had received death threats in connection with the Kurundimale Viharaya case.

President’s Secretary Saman Ekanayake held discussions regarding the incident with Minister of Justice Wijayadasa Rajapaksa and Minister of Public Security, Tiran Alas. It was revealed during these discussions that the magistrate had not lodged any formal complaint about the alleged death threats prior to his resignation.

The magistrate left the country on September 24 and sent his resignation letter to the Judicial Service Commission the preceding day (Sept. 23).State intelligence agencies have apprised the President’s office of the magistrate’s purported close associations with officials from several foreign embassies.

COURTS & LAW

Resignation of Mullaitivu Judge T. Saravanarajah: A Telling Tale of Threats and Independence of Judiciary

BNN By Muhammad Jawad

Distinguished Judge T. Saravanarajah Resigns Amid Grave Threats

In an unexpected twist to the judicial landscape, venerated District Judge and Magistrate, T. Saravanarajah has vacated his spectrum of duties by handing in his resignation, tearing a significant hole in the judiciary fabric.

The Prompting Catalyst

Cited in his resignation letter, delivered to the Secretary of the Judicial Services Commission on 23rd September, Saravanarajah informed of his decision to step down from the manifold judicial positions he held,most notably being a District Judge and Magistrate. In addition, his resignation spanned across his commands as Family Court Judge, Primary Court Judge, Small Claims Judge and Juvenile Court Judge.

Death Threats – A Chilling Consequence

In a startling revelation—the catalyst propelling this decision—Sarvanarajah attributed the series of death threats he received as the reason for his abrupt departure. Not just an attack on personal security, these threats constitute a breach of the sanctity and impartiality of the judicial system, more potent for the timing coinciding with his handling of few notably sensitive and disputable cases.

Destabilizing The Balance

A seasoned jurist, Judge Saravanarajah’s exodus from the judiciary has implications reaching far deeper than personal safety. The endangerment of a key cog in the judicial apparatus threatens to destabilize the balance of the justice delivery system. His departure leaves a palpable void—the absence of an honest and integral judicial officer—barely replaceable overnight.

Investigating the Threats

In response to this alarming incident, it is crucial for authorities to unremittingly pursue these threats and ensure the culprits face just repercussions. Sweeping such incidents under the rug adds fuel to an eventual tire fire, jeopardizing the entire judicial system and its functionaries who dedicate themselves to maintain law and order.

Migrating for Safety

In the wake of these damning threats, Saravanarajah finds himself beyond national borders, having flown abroad post the submission of his resignation. While this move might provide temporary safety, it starkly underscores a stark issue—the fact even upholders of justice are susceptible to intimidation, raising stark questions on the overall security situation in the country.

☝

Governance in SL diagnosed as grave

IMF technical assistance report reveals systematic and severe governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities across State functions

• IMF technical assistance report reveals systematic and severe governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities across State functions
• Corruption vulnerabilities are exacerbated by weak accountability institutions
• Impunity for misbehaviour enjoyed by officials undermines trust in the public sector
• Stresses behaviour of top officials reflected a consensus that corruption paved the way for the economic crisis
• Acknowledges “Aragalaya” and calls for role of civil society in demanding accountability
• First-ever exercise lists 16 immediate and short-term measures to address key corruption issues and strengthen governance

The first-ever Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA) on Sri Lanka compiled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revealed widespread systematic and severe governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities across State functions, with particular macroeconomic impact.

The report stressed the appalling status impacted budget credibility; expenditure control; public investment management and control of spending); public procurement; management and oversight of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs); transparency of revenue policy and the integrity of revenue administration; the governance and legal frameworks of the Central Bank; the application of financial sector regulations; and clarity and security of land ownership and the integrity of the judicial sector.

“Corruption vulnerabilities are exacerbated by weak accountability institutions, including the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery and Corruption (CIABOC) that have neither the authority nor competency to successfully fulfil their functions,” stated the GDA, which the IMF compiled in response to a request from the Government of Sri Lanka.

It said current governance arrangements have not established clear standards for permissible official behaviour, acted to deter and sanction transgressions, nor pursued individuals and stolen public funds that have exited the country. Regular civil society participation in the oversight and monitoring of Government actions is restricted by limited transparency, the lack of platforms for inclusive and participatory governance, and by broad application of counter-terrorism rules.

“These weaknesses and vulnerabilities highlight several broader governance themes that need to be addressed for planned reforms to be sustained. Problematic structural issues that shape governance dynamics include the compromised independence of key governance institutions, critical gaps in the legal and regulatory infrastructure for managing and overseeing public resources, limited fiscal discipline and transparency, and a disorganised regulatory and legislative process that provides for insufficient review and engagement,” it said.

It was pointed out that minimal progress has been made in integrating modern information technology into public sector operations and public-private interfaces, or in linking information to detect and correct inefficiencies and improprieties. These governance features form the basis for the substitution of informal mechanisms of control for rule-based systems of accountability for performance and integrity over an expansive State.

“The impunity for misbehaviour enjoyed by officials undermines trust in the public sector and compounds concerns over limited access to efficient and rule-based adjudication process for resolving disputes,” the GDA revealed.

💬 “The recommendations coming out of this diagnostic will contribute to the formulation of governance and anticorruption policies and programs, improvement of the legal and institutional frameworks, as well as governance and anti-corruption reform measures agreed to in the Staff Level Agreement for an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Sri Lanka,” the GDA report stressed.

The report highlights immediate and short-term measures to address key corruption issues, as well as structural reforms that require more time and resources but are essential to strengthen governance and initiate lasting change. A list of “priority” recommendations is provided below. They primarily focus on measures related to critical risks, including addressing gaps in existing legal frameworks and the public provision of essential information for oversight and monitoring. Priority recommendations are explored in more depth in the subsections of the report, which also contain more extensive recommendations, including structural and institutional measures to achieve more transparent and efficient governance that operates with integrity and in accordance with the rule of law.

The recommendations are designed as a coherent approach to improving governance through a focus on clarity of authority and responsibility for core functions; financial and operational independence of essential accountability and law enforcement institutions; transparency in government practices and performance, especially relating to the planning, spending, and accounting for the use of public funds and assets; inclusive, accessible, and rule-based means to enforce private agreements and challenge official behaviour; and efficient mechanisms for making information public and holding organisations and individuals to account for their performance and behaviour.

The IMF report said the combination of short-term actions to deliver concrete and observable improvements and long-term structural initiatives to change how the public sector functions in Sri Lanka is essential to achieving the social and economic aspirations of the country.

It acknowledged that comprehensively addressing governance weaknesses would require medium – and long-term initiatives, significant resources, and prolonged efforts, including support from Sri Lanka’s international partners.

“The recommendations coming out of this diagnostic will contribute to the formulation of governance and anticorruption policies and programs, improvement of the legal and institutional frameworks, as well as governance and anti-corruption reform measures agreed to in the Staff Level Agreement for an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Sri Lanka,” the GDA report stressed.

The report noted that widespread and persistent popular protests in 2022 over the behaviour of top officials reflected a consensus that corruption had paved the way for the economic crisis. The subsequent resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in July 2022 emphasised that addressing the crisis required changes in governance as much as changes in economic policies. The role of civil society in demanding accountability carried an equally important message about the drivers of change.

The report acknowledged that President Wickremesinghe has announced that his Government is “committed to implementing anti-corruption practices through a Government mechanism that emphasises accountability.”

☝

Zelenskyy wanted to make Ukraine’s defence sector into a “large military hub”

Ukraine tempts Western arms producers with plan for ‘large military hub’

Incentives available to partner with Ukrainian manufacturers as Kyiv looks to create ‘world class military products’.

AJ 1 Oct 2023

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced plans to expand the country’s domestic defence industry through partnerships with Western weapons manufacturers, in a bid to increase supplies for its counteroffensive against Russia.

Speaking at the opening of the International Defence Industries Forum, Zelenskyy said he wanted to make Ukraine’s defence sector into a “large military hub” where military equipment and weapons could be built and repaired.

“Ukraine is in such a phase of the defence marathon when it is very important, critical to go forward without retreating. Results from the front line are needed daily,” the president told executives representing more than 250 Western weapons producers.

“We are interested in localising production of equipment needed for our defence and each of those advanced defence systems which are used by our soldiers, giving Ukraine the best results at the front today.”

Zelenskyy said that air defence and de-mining were his immediate priorities. Ukraine also aims to boost domestic production of missiles, drones and artillery ammunition.

The foreign ministry said Ukrainian producers had signed about 20 agreements with foreign partners for joint production, exchange of technology or supply of components to make drones, armoured vehicles and ammunition. It did not identify the companies.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who spoke by video link during the forum after visiting Kyiv earlier in the week, threw his weight behind the initiative.

💬

• 250 Western weapons producers.
• 20 agreements with foreign partners.
• “There is no defence without industry.”
• Several leading Western arms makers  Germany’s Rheinmetall, United Kingdom’s BAE Systems have  plans to team up with Ukrainian producers.
• NATO threw his weight behind the initiative.
• Ukrainian officials see the development of the country’s domestic defence industry as a potential boost to the economy

“Heroism alone cannot intercept missiles. Ukraine needs capabilities, high quality, high quantity, and quickly,” Stoltenberg said. “There is no defence without industry.”

Ukraine retook the southern city of Kherson in November last year, and began a long-awaited counteroffensive in early June to try and recapture other territories seized by Russia, which launched its full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022.

Kyiv has reported advances in several directions and liberated more than a dozen villages since but Moscow still controls about 18 percent of Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine’s allies have provided financial and military support worth tens of billions of dollars to help it push back Moscow’s forces.

Ukrainian officials see the development of the country’s domestic defence industry as a potential boost to the economy, which shrunk by about a third last year as a result of the war.

Several leading Western arms makers including Germany’s Rheinmetall and the United Kingdom’s BAE Systems have already announced plans to team up with Ukrainian producers.

Ukraine will create new incentives to draw Western defence investment and establish a special fund, through dividends from state defence resources and profits from the sale of confiscated Russian assets, to support new technology development, officials said.

“It will be a mutually beneficial partnership. I think it is a good time and place to create a large military hub,” Zelenskyy said during a separate meeting with weapons producers from the United States, the UK, Czechia, Germany, France, Sweden and Turkey.

Recently appointed Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said Kyiv had to do everything possible to produce all the necessary military services and products in Ukraine for the needs of its army.

“Our vision is to develop world-class military products,” Umerov said.

SOURCE: NEWS AGENCIES

Washington Wakes Up to Harsh Reality Amid Ukraine Proxy War

 

25.09.2023 Author: Brian Berletic https://journal-neo.su

Long gone are Western headlines heralding Ukraine’s NATO-trained and armed forces and the prospects of them able to “sweep Putin’s conscripts aside,” as former British Army Colonel Hamish De Bretton-Gordon claimed in an article published as recently as June this year.

As Ukraine’s offensive forces broke across extensive Russian defenses all along the line of contact from Zaporozhye to Kharkov, the realization that Washington, London, and Brussels underestimated the Russian Federation economically, politically, diplomatically, and most importantly, militarily and industrially, began to set in.

Russian Military Production Grows, Western Stockpiles Dry Up 

Today, different kinds of headlines now appear across the collective West’s media.  The New York Times recently reported in an article titled, “Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say,” that Russia ammunition production was at least seven times greater than the collective West.

The same article acknowledged that Russia had increased its tank production two-fold and was producing 2 million artillery rounds per year, a number that is larger than the combined planned expansion of shell production of the US and European Union some time between 2025 and 2027. Not only is Russia out-producing the West, it is producing weapons and ammunition at a fraction of the cost of Western arms and munitions.

As Russian military industrial production expands, producing more tanks, artillery, cruise missiles, and ammunition for the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine, Ukrainian forces find their sources of arms and ammunition drying up.

The BBC would report in a recent article, “Poland no longer supplying weapons to Ukraine amid grain row,” that:

One of Ukraine’s staunchest allies, Poland, has said it is no longer supplying weapons to its neighbour, amid a diplomatic dispute over Kyiv’s grain exports. 

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Poland’s focus was instead on defending itself with more modern weapons.

While both Poland and the BBC attempt to frame the decision as motivated by growing tensions between Poland and Ukraine, the reality is Poland had a finite amount of expendable arms and ammunition it could send Ukraine, and it has expended those stocks. This leaves a much smaller number of more modern systems Poland has acquired for its own defense. Neither Poland nor its foreign arms suppliers produce weapons and ammunition in the quantities required to sustain Ukrainian forces on the battlefield, meaning that should Poland continue supplying Ukraine from this point forward, it will eventually find itself “demilitarized.”

Other nations are failing to deliver much anticipated weapon systems. This includes the ATACMS ballistic missile Ukraine has demanded from the United States for months now, and despite claims of its arrival being imminent, Reuters in a recent article has ruled them out once again ahead of the Pentagon’s next assistance package.

Germany’s air-launched cruise missile, the Taurus, has also failed to turn up in additional assistance packages. Bloomberg in its article, “Germany Plans Additional $428 Million in Military Aid to Ukraine,” noted that Berlin is still weighing “a multitude of political, legal, military and technical aspects,” before finally sending any.

It should be noted that neither missile, along with a wide array of other so-called “wonder weapons,” has any prospect of changing the outcome of the fighting in Ukraine. While the missiles, if delivered, will result in tactical victories for Kiev, they will have little to no impact on the fighting strategically.

What remains of Western military assistance to Ukraine is inadequate amounts of ammunition, older and/or increasingly inappropriate armored vehicles including relics of the Cold War like the Leopard 1 main battle tank, and “training” for Ukrainian soldiers conducted in compressed timelines producing entirely unprepared soldiers almost certain to perish within days of arriving at the battlefield.

The US-led proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is unsustainable, and it appears many in the halls of power across the collective West are coming to grips with that.

Delusion Persists

However, elsewhere in the Western media, a deep sense of delusion is still reflected in articles that, despite admitting Ukraine’s failures, believe a “rethink” of Ukraine’s military strategy could help win what is obviously transforming into a “long war.”

For example, The Economist in its article, “Ukraine faces a long war. A change, of course, is needed,” admits the long-anticipated offensive “is not working,” but goes on to demands more offensive and defensive capabilities for Ukraine, including additional air defense systems and “reliable supplies of artillery,” both of which objectively do not and will not exist in the necessary quantities Ukraine requires for years to come.

At one point in the article, The Economist insists on Europe “beefing up its defense industry,” apparently oblivious to the lead times involved in doing so being measured in years – years Ukraine does not have.

The collective West apparently realizes their plans are failing to end the war in their favor sooner rather than later, but appear unaware that the “long war” they now realize awaits them is beyond their capability to fight by proxy or otherwise. The proxy war, designed to “extend Russia,” is now making Russia stronger militarily and industrially. At the same time, the conflict and the sanctions the West imposed on Russia are serving as a catalyst for other nations to pivot away from the US-led unipolar world and instead invest in a multipolar alternative, fearing that eventually the West may target them in a similar manner.

It is clear that the harder the collective West attempts to place Ukraine in a stronger position at the negotiation table, the weaker Ukraine and its Western sponsors become. The longer this conflict continues, the worse it will be for Ukraine and its sponsors. For the collective West, winning their proxy war is impossible militarily and industrially, but accepting this reality appears equally impossible for the collective West’s leadership psychologically.

Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”. 

To Many Americans, Government Dysfunction Is the New Normal

 

NEWS ANALYSIS

To Many Americans, Government Dysfunction Is the New Normal

As the nation teetered on the brink of a shutdown, its citizens were largely focused on other things.

As the nation’s capital seemed to be barreling toward another debilitating federal government shutdown this weekend, America, well, did not exactly seem to be on the edge of its collective seat.

Judging by Google search trends, at least, Americans in the days leading up to the shutdown-that-wasn’t were more curious about who shot Tupac Shakur, who might win “The Golden Bachelor” and who would claim the giant Powerball jackpot. Even National Coffee Day 2023 generated more searches at one point than the possible government shutdown.

Those are probably not signs of public confidence that the nation’s leaders would somehow avoid plummeting off the cliff at the last minute, even though, surprisingly, they did. Instead, they may indicate that America at this point assumes that Washington actually will go over the cliff, because that is what Washington does these days. After all, the 11th-hour congressional deal that kept the government open lasts only until mid-November.

America, it seems, has come to expect crisis. In an era of disruption and polarization and insurrection, with a former president facing 91 felony counts in four criminal indictments and a sitting president facing an impeachment inquiry and a House speaker facing a possible move to oust him, the country has grown accustomed to chaos in the capital. Dysfunction is the new normal.

“For the average American outside the Beltway, these hiatuses of governing are looked at as nothing new, unfortunately,” said G. William Hoagland, who spent 33 years in the federal government, most of it as a senior budget official for Senate Republicans.

Government shutdowns are a modern phenomenon, and a measure of how fractious the capital has become. While Congress occasionally failed to pass spending bills on time in the past, it did not result in wholesale closures until President Jimmy Carter’s attorney general ruled in 1980 and 1981 that without congressional appropriations, nonessential functions had to cease. That took place several times under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, but often for just a few hours or days or over a weekend, when it was hardly noticed.

The seismic change came in late 1995 and early 1996, when House Republicans set off back-to-back shutdowns during a budget fight with President Bill Clinton, resulting in a popular backlash that made such tactics politically radioactive for nearly 18 years. Since 2013, however, Presidents Barack Obama, Donald J. Trump and Biden, it seems likely, have all confronted the threat of multiday shutdowns, making them seem almost routine.

💬 America, it seems, has come to expect crisis. In an era of disruption and polarization and insurrection, with a former president facing 91 felony counts in four criminal indictments and a sitting president facing an impeachment inquiry and a House speaker facing a possible move to oust him, the country has grown accustomed to chaos in the capital. Dysfunction is the new normal.

“That is a big part of the problem,” said former Senator Claire McCaskill, Democrat of Missouri. “Dysfunction and chaos are now in the political bloodstream, and therefore folks aren’t calling or emailing D.C.” to register objections with their representatives. “They see this as part of normal, polarized, partisan politics in Washington.”

What made this prospective shutdown different from those that came before was that it was less a fight between Democrats and Republicans than a fight between Republicans and Republicans. Speaker Kevin McCarthy lost control of his narrow majority and was pressed toward a shutdown by a handful of hard-liners who defied him, forcing him to turn to Democrats to avoid it.

In the days leading up to the Saturday midnight deadline, Mr. Biden’s White House tried to stir up public opposition to what it dubbed the “Extreme Republican Shutdown" by blitzing out a string of statements emphasizing the consequences: how it would cut off food assistance for impoverished parents, hinder efforts to fight fentanyl trafficking, delay disaster recovery and suspend paychecks for troops.

Yet as absorbed as Washington was by the game of political chicken, there has not been much of a popular uprising or even much complaining from the elites on Wall Street, who normally worry that a government shutdown could damage the economy. The financial markets shrugged off the threat. The Dow Jones industrial average closed on Friday 1.3 percent down for the week, while the S&P 500 was down about half of that.

The only way that might change, according to political veterans, is if a shutdown lasted for a prolonged period of time, suspending food assistance for millions of low-income mothers and children, closing national parks, delaying air travel and forcing more than three million civilian and military government workers to go without pay. “It will take an extended shutdown, when people really begin to feel pain, to see the political blowback on the Republican House members that are playing this irresponsible game,” said Ms. McCaskill.

Former Representative Carlos Curbelo, Republican of Florida, said “a small minority” of his party had no problem trying “to wreak havoc on the institution” and would continue to do so unless there was a political price to be paid.

“Financial markets and most Americans have become numb to the drama; however, swing voters tend to punish these unnecessary spectacles,” he said.

A survey by Monmouth University showed that voters, by a 2 to 1 margin, preferred their representatives to compromise rather than stick to principles if that led to a shutdown. But even though this weekend’s showdown was precipitated by a small cadre of far-right House Republicans, it was not clear from polls who would be held accountable.

Another survey, by YouGov this past week, showed that 29 percent of Americans blamed House Republicans for the standoff, compared with 14 percent who pinned the blame on House Democrats and 13 percent who named Mr. Biden — in other words, almost evenly split between both parties. Nearly a third considered everyone equally at fault.

💬After all, the 11th-hour congressional deal that kept the government open lasts only until mid-November.

“When you ask the American public if they want compromise, they say yes,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth poll. “But when you ask them who they will vote for,” he continued, they stand by their party, believing that it’s the other side that isn’t compromising.

David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh, N.C., and director of the university’s poll, said the cascade of once-rare eruptions in Washington — shutdown, impeachment, criminal trials, internal revolt — had fed into a broader sense of disenchantment with the direction of the country that has seeped down to the state level. He calls it a “contagion effect.”

“There is no demographic group where the majority of people think things are going well in the country,” he said. “Partisans, Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters all think things are going poorly.”

Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said the public had become so inured to disarray in Washington that it had lowered the bar for what it would accept.

“Our expectations have plummeted, and we have become dangerously numb to the failures of our government,” she said. ”It gets increasingly difficult to see how we turn this around and maintain our role in the world. The only way it can change is if we make demands of our leaders that are driven not by more outrage, but by a desire for the country to become more united.”

=================

Peter Baker is the chief White House correspondent for The Times. He has covered the last five presidents and sometimes writes analytical pieces that place presidents and their administrations in a larger context and historical framework.

IMF gives mixed scorecard for SL

“Despite early signs of stabilisation, full economic recovery is not yet assured,” Breuer told journalists yesterday.

• Acknowledges Sri Lanka’s economic progress amidst challenges
• Says sustaining reform momentum critical to put economy on path towards lasting recovery
• Expresses concern over significant disparity between Govt. spending and tax collection
• Predicts revenue mobilisation gains will fall short of initial projections by 15% by year end
• Govt. is tasked to raise revenue equivalent to 12% of GDP by end-2024 
• Commends steady progress in implementing structural reforms
• Says no fixed timeline for second tranche of $ 2.9 b facility
• Notes banks will suffer from restructuring, despite financial stability maintained
• Opines people are experiencing consequences of past policies, significant tax cuts in 2019

By Charumini de Silva, Daily FT Thursday, 28 September 2023

 IMF Mission Chief Peter Breuer gestures 

during the media briefing held at the 

Central Bank yesterday 

– Pic by Pradeep Pathirana 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday said Sri Lanka is showing ‘tentative signs of stabilisation’ but insisted concerted efforts are still required to steer the country towards a complete economic recovery.

This observation follows the conclusion of a visit by an IMF staff mission team led by Peter Breuer and Katsiaryna Svirydzenka to Colombo from 14 to 27 September to discuss economic and financial policies to support the approval of the first review of the program under the $ 2.9 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“Despite early signs of stabilisation, full economic recovery is not yet assured,” Breuer told journalists yesterday.

Noting that the people of Sri Lanka have shown remarkable resilience in the face of enormous challenges, he said the country made commendable progress in implementing difficult, but much-needed reforms.

“Growth momentum remains subdued, with real GDP in the second quarter contracting by 3.1% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis and high-frequency economic indicators continuing to provide mixed signals. Reserve accumulation has slowed in recent months. Sustaining the reform momentum is critical to put the economy on a path towards lasting recovery and stable and inclusive economic growth,” he added.

Breuer pointed out that the significant gap between Government expenditures and revenue collection remains a concern, adding that reforms in tax policies and administration are vital to bridge it.

Stating that the Government has met the program’s primary balance targets and remains committed to this important pillar of the program to support their efforts to restore debt sustainability, he said that revenue mobilisation gains are expected to fall short of initial projections by nearly 15% by year-end, in part due to economic factors.

“Tax collection is a concern. It is an important pillar of the program to sustain the essential expenditures of Government services like education, health, infrastructure and support for the poor and vulnerable with an appropriate amount of revenue. However, in Sri Lanka, there is a big gap between State revenue and expenditure. The expenditures are 19% of GDP and the revenue is 9% of GDP and that gap needs to be filled. To accomplish that objective, it is important to have the appropriate tax policies and tax administration systems in place that support this effort.

He explained the need to address missing tax revenues requires reforms to increase taxation, recognising the impact on the population’s financial burden.

“This extends beyond taxes, encompassing utility prices and inflation, which have significantly raised costs for citizens. The country is grappling with the consequences of past policies and shocks, particularly the massive tax cut in 2019 compounded by subsequent economic challenges. This culminated in a crisis last summer, necessitating the public to share in the financial responsibilities.

He emphasised that to increase revenues and signal better governance, it is important to strengthen tax administration, remove tax exemptions, and actively eliminate tax evasion.

“The objective for the Government in 2024 is to raise revenue, equivalent to 12% of GDP. So there is some way to go to get there. We are looking to the benefits of the tax reforms that were introduced last year to bear full fruit and to be supplemented with appropriate conditionals,” Breuer said.

He commended the Government’s steady progress in implementing structural reforms, including the enactment of crucial legislations like the Central Bank Act and the Anti-Corruption Act, noting that if implemented effectively, it could significantly enhance governance.

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• Commends steady progress in implementing structural reforms
• Says no fixed timeline for second tranche of $ 2.9 b facility

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It was also noted that the upcoming IMF Governance Diagnostic report is expected to further guide future reform strategies aimed at strengthening governance.

In the context of the IMF’s assessment process for the second tranche, Breuer said there is ‘no fixed timeline’.

“Two crucial conditions must be met: firstly, an agreement on policies and reforms to progress in line with program objectives, especially in light of identified shortfalls this year. Efforts are underway to address and compensate for this shortfall. Secondly, addressing the debt situation and reaching agreements with creditors is essential for sustainability. Once both conditions are satisfied, an administrative process follows, including the preparation of a performance assessment report. This report undergoes various stages before being reviewed by the Executive Board, which ultimately makes the final decision and publishes the findings for public access,” he explained.

Regarding debt sustainability, he acknowledged ongoing efforts to regain control through domestic debt restructuring and discussions with external creditors.

On the debt situation, he said the key lies in a process called ‘financing assurances’, relevant to both official and commercial creditors. “In Sri Lanka’s case, the debt is spread around quite a bit, externally and domestically. What we look for is to be able to move forward in this debt restructuring case is adequate progress in the negotiations with the creditors. That would give us confidence that this process will be concluded promptly with program objectives and deadlines,” Breuer said.

“From the IMF perspective, what matters to us is that debt targets are achieved. Remember, these are the targets concerning the debt stock on the floor. The gross financing needs the debt service on the external side and also the debt relief that is needed within the program period. The Government has chosen a particular way and the banks are not in there. While we care about the target, we also care, to some extent, how we get it to maintain financial and social stability because otherwise the problem could just become worse and then these targets do not apply anymore,” he added.

He said the financial stability is maintained, but the banks will nevertheless suffer from the restructuring through the exposure to the Government through domestic foreign exchange instruments, as well as external foreign exchange instruments.

The IMF’s mission reaffirmed its commitment to providing support during these challenging times, highlighting the dynamic nature of programs that may require adjustments to meet their objectives.

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Explainer: Why US-led Saudi-Israel normalization talks are doomed to fail?

 

PRESS TV Wednesday, 27 September 2023 By Reza Javadi

On Tuesday, two events took place simultaneously that highlighted Saudi Arabia’s misplaced foreign policy priorities, especially vis-a-vis Palestine and Israeli settler colonialism.

In the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah, Saudi Arabia's newly appointed envoy to Palestine Nayef al-Sudairi presented his credentials to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

Palestinian foreign ministry had earlier welcomed the appointment of the Saudi ambassador, describing it as “a historic milestone for developing fraternal relations between the two sister countries.”

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen told Tel Aviv’s 103 FM radio station Sunday that the Saudi ambassador’s appointment comes amid “the advancement of talks between the US and the Saudis regarding Israel.”

On the same day, the Israeli tourism minister landed in Riyadh, in what was described as the first visit by a senior Israeli regime official to the Arab kingdom, to attend a World Tourism Organization event.

"I will work to create collaborations to promote tourism and Israel's foreign relations," Katz said in a statement as cited by various media outlets.

The two events, according to observers, lay bare the duplicity of some Arab states in keeping the channels of diplomacy open with the Israeli regime while claiming support for the Palestinian cause.

The farce of normalization

Speculation has been rife that the US is trying to mediate the normalization of ties between the Saudi government and Israel, even though previous normalization agreements under the Abraham Accords brokered by Washington have so far proved to be an exercise in futility.

Saudi Arabia reportedly has put specific conditions for recognizing Israel. In an interview with Fox News last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman cited the Palestinian issue and asserted that it is very important and needs to be resolved.

However, he didn’t rule out normalization with the Tel Aviv regime, dismissing reports that the ongoing talks have been suspended. He said the two sides are coming closer every day.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also prioritized normalization with Saudi Arabia, but it remains uncertain how his right-wing coalition will respond to any Saudi demands.

Netanyahu told Bloomberg TV on August 7 that the Palestinian issue is “a lot less than you think” on the agenda of negotiating normalization with the Saudis and affirmed that his regime categorically rejects the idea of a viable Palestinian state.   

Addressing the UN General Assembly on Saturday, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan warned that regional security in West Asia hinges on a “just, comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue” and appeared to criticize Israel for “unilateral measures that are a flagrant violation of international law”

“Security in the Middle East region requires the acceleration of… a just, comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue; the solution must be based on resolutions in the international arena and must bring about a peace that allows [the] Palestinian people to have an independent state based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital,” he said.

In his speech to the UNGA, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas warned against sidelining the Palestinian people's legitimate national rights in any potential normalization agreement.

“Those who think that peace can prevail in the Middle East without the Palestinian people enjoying their full legitimate national rights would be mistaken,” Abbas told the summit of world leaders.

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Netanyahu told Bloomberg TV on August 7 that the Palestinian issue is “a lot less than you think” on the agenda of negotiating normalization with the Saudis and affirmed that his regime categorically rejects the idea of a viable Palestinian state.   

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Normalization and conditions

Saudi Arabia's conditions for a potential normalization pact with the Israeli regime go beyond Palestine.

Riyadh is seeking several concessions from the US, including support for its nuclear program, expansion of trade (including a free trade agreement), and various commitments related to defense.  These defense commitments encompass security guarantees, access to advanced military equipment, and more efficient procurement processes.

Meanwhile, members of the US Congress are hesitant to grant significant concessions to Riyadh, adding complexity to the negotiations. In exchange for meeting Saudi conditions, the US seeks Riyadh's commitment to cease sensitive transactions with Beijing and align more closely with US interests.

The Saudis appear unwilling to downgrade their relations with China, as China has already made substantial investments in Saudi Arabia's economic infrastructure, including in telecommunications, the sale of advanced weaponry, and cooperation on drone and ballistic missile production.

Furthermore, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a Chinese-led infrastructure project connecting Asia to Europe, has bolstered its presence in Saudi Arabia, with the kingdom being a pivotal component of this project among the Persian Gulf states.

In his July 2022 Middle East tour, US President Joe Biden affirmed that the US “will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran” but this visit did not accomplish its objectives, neither in energy nor in strategy, beyond opening Saudi airspace to Israel.

Despite US efforts to counter China's influence in the region, China has strengthened its ties with Saudi Arabia through a series of agreements. During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Riyadh last year, China finalized over 40 deals with Saudi Arabia covering the climate, technology, and energy sectors.

These agreements are poised to enhance economic and investment cooperation between the two countries, aligning with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and the Belt and Road Initiative.

Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih stated that the accords will “contribute to raising the pace of economic and investment cooperation between the two countries.”

In a recent interview with Xinhua, Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef highlighted the high complementarity between the two countries in the fields of economy and trade.

“The deep synergy between the Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 will bring advanced science, technology and ideas to the country, and boost its economic and social development,” Alkhorayef said.

“China is not only an important partner of our kingdom in the economic field but also in many other areas,” he added.

Betrayal of Palestinians

Amid reports of progress in normalization talks between Tel Aviv and Riyadh, Israeli atrocities continue in the occupied Palestinian territories, which have been quietly condemned by Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia issued a statement on Monday condemning incidents involving Jews praying on the Temple Mount, home to the al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of the repeated provocative practices carried out by a group of extremists at al-Aqsa Mosque under the protection of the Israeli occupation forces,” the statement noted.

At the same time, they continue normalization talks with the Netanyahu regime, which have significantly increased in recent months, as confirmed by the highest officials on both sides.

Experts believe Saudi Arabia’s normalization with the apartheid regime in Tel Aviv, if it materializes, will represent another betrayal of the Palestinian cause and the Muslim world at large.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raeisi, addressing a press conference on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly summit in New York last week, warned that any normalization deal between Saudis and Israelis would amount to a “betrayal” of the Palestinian cause.

“The initiation of a relationship between the Zionist regime and any country in the region, if it is with the aim to bring security for the Zionist regime, will certainly not do so,” the Iranian president asserted.

“We believe that a relationship between regional countries and the Zionist regime is a stab in the back of the Palestinian people and of the resistance of the Palestinians.”

Palestinians have also expressed concern and rage over the possible deal between Saudi Arabia and the Israeli regime, slamming it as a betrayal.

Failed normalizations

Before Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain formalized ties with the Tel Aviv regime in 2020 in what became known as the Abraham Accords. Sudan and Morocco also followed them. 

The normalization between the UAE and Israel is considered a failed exercise by regional experts, as the agreement has not yielded any results for the two sides.

More importantly, the accord has failed to bring any stability to the region and has had nothing more than entrenching Israeli settler colonialism.

When the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 through the Abraham Accords, it faced criticism for betraying the Palestinian cause. 

The UAE defended its decision, claiming it served Palestinian interests by preventing Israel's annexation of the West Bank and preserving the two-state solution.

However, recent statements from Abu Dhabi's Ambassador in Washington, Yousef Al-Otaiba, suggest that the situation on the ground is different.

Al-Otaiba noted that Israel's actions in the West Bank are effectively annexing the territory, complicating the prospects for a two-state solution.

“It’s challenging because it’s ongoing. It’s happening subtly, which complicates the path to a two-state solution even further” Al-Otaiba said, adding that “our agreement had a specific timeframe, which is nearly over. Thus, we cannot influence decisions made beyond that period.”

Given the increasing Israeli violence against Palestinians under the current far-right regime, the UAE has condemned Israel's violations of basic Palestinian rights.

Three years into their relationship, the UAE faces significant challenges in dealing with Israel's most extreme right-wing regime ever, including the likes of Bezalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and others.

A recent survey conducted by Arab Barometer, a research group affiliated with Princeton University, revealed that the majority of citizens across the Middle East/West Asia region oppose the normalization of relations between Arab states and Israel.

The extensive survey, conducted between October 2021 and July 2022, involved 26,000 participants from 11 populous MENA countries.

Participants were asked the question: “To what extent do you favor or oppose the normalization of relations between Arab states and Israel?”

In nine out of the 11 countries surveyed, fewer than one in five participants expressed support for normalization agreements with Israel, which shows how unpopular the move is.

Experts believe Saudi Arabia’s normalization, if it happens, will not only not serve the interests of any party but prove counter-productive for Riyadh and the region.

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China stresses need for WTO reform, high-level opening-up

 

SOURCE / ECONOMY

By GT staff reporters Published: Sep 27, 2023 

Nation’s 'dual circulation' policy doesn’t mean isolation: experts

China's top leadership has stressed efforts to actively participate in the reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and improve the ability to handle high-level opening-up. 

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, made the remarks while presiding over a group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on Wednesday, Xinhua News Agency reported.

He urged efforts to fully participate in WTO reform and adjustments of international economic and trade rules, while promoting deep-level reform and high-quality development with high-level opening-up.

Historical changes have taken place in the relationship between China and the WTO, he said, noting that the country has gradually grown from a passive recipient of and an active adapter to international economic and trade rules, to an important participant in this field.

The facts have proven that China's decision to join the WTO was a perfectly right one, as the accession has not only accelerated China's own development but also benefited the rest of the world, Xi said.

He stressed the need to stick to the overall trend of economic globalization, champion free trade and true multilateralism, oppose unilateralism and protectionism, oppose politicizing, weaponizing and overstretching the concept of national security on economic and trade issues, and build an open world economy.

Experts have highlighted China's proactive engagement in WTO reform, its commitment to opening-up and contribution to multilateralism and free trade.

Dong Shaopeng, a senior research fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, told the Global Times on Wednesday that China's entry into the WTO has led to a boost in global trade, thanks to China's advantages in population, resources, and sophisticated industry system. 

Dong also highlighted that China's role as a world factory has helped balance global merchandise prices and ease global inflation.

Li Yong, a senior research fellow at the China Association of International Trade, told the Global Times on Wednesday that China's commitment to continuing high-quality opening-up will contribute to China's "standard-bearer" role for free trade and investment and globalization, which is facing headwinds under the complex global geopolitical situation.

As the world's largest trading nation, the second largest economy and the world's largest consumer market, China's further opening-up stands to benefit partner countries, Li said.

Since its accession to the WTO more than 20 years ago, China has become the world's largest trader for goods and a major trading partner for over 140 countries and regions, contributing an average of nearly 30 percent to the world's annual economic growth.

Experts also argued that China's development, centered on "domestic circulation," does not equate to a policy of isolationism or abandoning the international market, as hyped by some Western media.

"Dual circulation," the new development paradigm that China adopted in 2020, takes the domestic market as the mainstay while allowing domestic and foreign markets to reinforce each other.

Dong said that large economies like China, the US, and India should focus on domestic economic circulation, which is the basis for generating spillover effects to the outside world and driving global economic growth.

"China's 'dual circulation' strategy aligns with the regular trend of large economies and stigmatization against China from some Western media exposes their misunderstanding and ignorance," Dong said.

The "dual circulation" strategy will make China more proactive in its openness, effectively enhancing its resilience against risks, and is also a response to the Western "decoupling" from China, expert said.

In fact, China has been continuously exploring higher levels of openness, and the construction of pilot free trade zones (FTZs) serve as a proactive exploration.

Xi has recently delivered instructions on advancing the development of FTZs, Xinhua reported.

He called for being a pioneer to forge ahead and overcome difficulties, explore a wider field and at a deeper level, and strive to build higher-level pilot FTZs.

He said that it is essential to align domestic rules with international economic and trade rules by high standards, further promote institutional opening-up, strengthen overall planning and systematic integration of reform, and promote innovative development of the entire industrial chain.

Since the establishment of the first pilot FTZ in Shanghai in 2013, China has so far established 21 FTZs and the Hainan Free Trade Port.

In the past 10 years, 278 institutional innovations have been formulated in FTZs and then replicated nationwide, covering investment facilitation, trade liberalization, financial opening-up, among other fields, Xinhua reported.

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Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One.

Less territory changed hands in August than in any other month of the war, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War. While Ukraine made small gains in the south, Russia took slightly more land overall, mostly in the northeast.

Across the front line, every mile of territory has been a grinding fight, with no repeat of the rapid breakthrough that Kyiv managed in Kharkiv in September last year, when Russia’s defenses collapsed after a surprise Ukrainian counterattack.

Russia and Ukraine have faced similar challenges this year. Both sides are fighting for positions that have remained largely entrenched for months, or even years in some parts of eastern Ukraine. Seasoned troops and commanders who were killed earlier in the war have been replaced with new recruits who often lack sufficient training.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has struggled to push forward across the wide-open fields in the south. It is facing extensive minefields and hundreds of miles of fortifications — trenches, anti-tank ditches and concrete obstacles — that Russia built last winter to slow Ukrainian vehicles and force them into positions where they could be more easily targeted.

When both sides’ gains are added up, Russia now controls nearly 200 square miles more territory in Ukraine compared with the start of the year.

Rather than seeking rapid gains, the Russian military appears to be comfortable holding the territory it already controls, according to Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in war studies at King’s College London. “It’s not losing anything by not moving forward,” she said.

Russia’s forces outnumber Ukraine’s nearly three to one on the battlefield, and with a larger population to replenish its ranks, Russia could see a prolonged defense as in its interests.

“The whole strategy in Ukraine is for the Russians to let the Ukrainians run against those defenses, kill as many as possible, and destroy as much Western equipment as possible,” she added.

Russia controls about 18 percent of Ukraine — a swath of land larger than Switzerland. This includes Crimea and part of eastern Ukraine, which it has occupied since 2014.

The slowdown comes with huge risks for Ukraine. If it looks unlikely to recapture large areas of the country, Western support could wane, either through lack of political will or unwillingness to donate more weapons, especially given the yearslong wait for deliveries of replacement equipment.

“Russia is trying to wait out until the West turns its back,” said Dr. Miron.

Ukraine continues to battle through Russia’s defenses in the south. Last month it successfully recaptured the village of Robotyne, and in recent days moved armored vehicles past Russia’s main anti-tank defenses near Verbove, about eight miles to the west of Robotyne.

But the clock is ticking for Ukraine’s counteroffensive to make significant territorial gains. Heavy rains are expected next month, and muddy terrain could prevent the use of heavy vehicles, such as the newly arrived U.S. Abrams tanks and the Challenger tanks supplied by Britain. “When there is mud and you have a 75-ton Challenger, it will just sink,” said Dr. Miron.

Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

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• The Future of Ukraine: The European Union and NATO have promised a path to membership for the country. But real partnership will hold risks and benefits.

• Photos: Photographers with The New York Times and other news organizations have been chronicling the war, capturing a slice of how soldiers and civilians have experienced it. Our photographers say some images will never leave them.

• Defying Isolation: After the invasion of Ukraine, the West tried to cut Russia off from the rest of the world. But wealthy Russians continue to rely on a network of middlemen to circumvent the restrictions.

• A Wartime Partnership: The alliance between President Biden and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has become critical to the world order.

• Zelensky’s Rise: The Ukrainian president, once brushed off as a political lightweight, has become a household name, representing his country’s tenacity.

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