German governing coalition collapses, adding upheaval in uncertain moment

German governing coalition collapses, adding upheaval in uncertain moment

Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister and announced a confidence vote that is widely expected to fail and pave the way to early elections in the spring 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, left, fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner on Wednesday. (Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images)

The Washington Post November 6, 2024 By Kate Brady

BERLIN — Germany’s governing coalition collapsed Wednesday, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister and announced a confidence vote that is widely expected to fail and to pave the way to early elections in the spring.

The news from Europe’s largest economy added a huge jolt of uncertainty on a day when much of the world’s attention was focused on the outcome of the U.S. election.

“I would have liked to have spared you this difficult decision,” Scholz said at the chancellery Wednesday night. “Especially in times like these, when uncertainty is growing.”

Federal elections have been held early on only three occasions in Germany’s postwar history. And this rare event is coming as Europe prepares for a second presidency of Donald Trump, who has threatened tariffs that could severely wound the export-dependent German economy and who has raised doubts about continued U.S. support for Ukraine and European security.

Scholz’s center-left government was the first to be formed after the retirement of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who anchored European politics for 16 years. Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition — named after the colors of his Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) — has been in power since 2021.

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Scholz’s Social Democrats will continue as a minority government with the Greens, which will require finding parliamentary majorities on a case-by-case to pass any bills. Scholz said that parliamentary action on all but the most urgent bills would be postponed.

But it was precarious from the start. After a short-lived honeymoon on sparse common ground, ideological divisions emerged. The parties have been engaged in months of infighting — while the German economy stagnated, the coalition parties sank in public opinion polls, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party drew historic gains in state elections.

It was a budget fight that ultimately brought everything down.

To fill big gaps in next year’s budget, Scholz’s SPD and the Greens have favored state- and debt-financed policies. The FDP, though, is an ardent proponent of the “debt brake.” Enshrined in the constitution, designed to force balanced budgets, the debt brake can be suspended only in exceptional circumstances — most recently in response to the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Scholz said Wednesday that FDP leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner had been dismissed after rejecting economic proposals.

“The finance minister shows no willingness to implement the offer for the good of our country. I do not want to subject our country to such behavior any more,” Scholz said, visibly irritated.

“There is no basis of trust for further cooperation,” he continued. “Serious government work is not possible like this.”

Scholz alleged that “Lindner only cares about the survival of his own party.”

Speaking soon after, Lindner shifted blame to the chancellor.

“Olaf Scholz has played down the economic concerns of the citizens,” he said. “His counterproposals are dull, unambitious and do nothing to combat the weak growth.”

Lindner said he could not agree to Scholz’s demand to suspend the debt brake and had proposed fresh elections, which Scholz “brusquely rejected.”

Scholz said publicly Wednesday that he would submit to a vote of confidence in Germany’s lower house of parliament on Jan 15.

“Members of the Bundestag can then decide whether to clear the way for early elections,” he said.

But with his personal approval ratings at rock bottom, Scholz’s chances of gaining sufficient parliamentary support for continued leadership are slim.

If the confidence vote fails, Scholz would then be in position to formally ask President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days, after which elections must be held within 60 days.

Elections in March or early April would be half a year earlier than planned.

The German government now enters a period of near paralysis. Scholz’s Social Democrats will continue as a minority government with the Greens, which will require finding parliamentary majorities on a case-by-case to pass any bills. Scholz said that parliamentary action on all but the most urgent bills would be postponed.

Ahead of the breakup, Economy Minister Robert Habeck of the Greens said it would be the worst time to let the coalition collapse, in view of the U.S. election and the war in Ukraine.

But patience among voters has also worn thin. A poll last week by Infratest dimap on behalf of German broadcaster ARD found that 54 percent of people surveyed would like to see early elections. The same survey also found that 85 percent of respondents were “little” or “not at all satisfied” with the government.

In national polls, Scholz’s Social Democrats are in third place around 15 percent, behind the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and far-right AfD, with the Greens in fourth position around 11 percent. If elections were held today, Lindner’s FDP might not even make it over the 5 percent threshold required to hold seats in parliament.⍐

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By Kate Brady

Kate Brady is a researcher and reporter based in The Washington Post's Berlin bureau. She has been at The Post since early 2023 and has been reporting from Germany for the best part of a decade