The Indian Ocean is home to numerous islands, both inhabited and uninhabited, which have recently garnered attention due to their geopolitical significance amid escalating power dynamics involving nations like India, China and their allies.
The Indian Ocean has historically been a vital trade route, with islands acting as strategic points for control and influence. These islands provided access to resources and wealth for those who controlled them, justifying the effort to overcome vast distances.
The US and its Quad partners have shifted their focus to the Indian Ocean region, due to the pivotal role in connecting to the broader Indo-Pacific region where China asserts that its nine-dash line, covering nearly 90 per cent of the three million square kilometres in the South China Sea, constitutes as its sovereign territory. It claims indisputable sovereignty over this area that is triggering tension in the 21st century. Consequently, islands such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives and those under French and British colonisation have heightened their vigilance in safeguarding their interests, particularly amidst China’s expanding presence in the region.
China justifies its presence in the South China Sea, that is creating a major stir, but it has cited the necessity of its presence there as well as in the Indian ocean, as its cargo vessels are traversing the east-west route passing by countries like Sri Lanka.
The Maldives, acknowledging its strategic positioning, similar to Sri Lanka, has initiated assertive measures to capitalise on its location, aiming to attract demand-driven infrastructure projects rather than relying solely on external aid. This internal shift has also sparked geopolitical tensions.
Sri Lanka has emerged as a critical geopolitical focal point over the past two decades, primarily due to its tilt towards China over other global powers, while China justifies its presence by emphasising the heavy reliance on trade routes passing through the Indian Ocean.
Security concerns, including the rise of piracy and the potential for military conflicts, further complicate the situation in the Indian ocean region where India has secured rights to nab pirates even at mid-sea and try them in Indian Courts.
The Indian Ocean holds significant economic potential in terms of resources, tourism, and trade. Balancing economic development with environmental protection is crucial for island nations. The future of the Indian Ocean hinges on effectively managing these competing interests. Cooperation and peaceful resolution of disputes are imperative for maintaining regional stability and fostering prosperity.
Muizzu’s growing relations with China raise eyebrows
The Maldives archipelago has recently attracted attention, especially with President Mohammed Muizzu’s vocal stance against India. While his strategic manoeuvring may have bolstered his electoral success, the broader implications of his actions have led India to adopt a silent stance. Muizzu’s indirect call for India to leave the Maldives extends to US allies, including France and EU nations, yet this doesn’t seem to concern him.
Realistically, such a scenario is improbable given the Maldives’ heavy reliance on countries like India, its immediate neighbour. The country’s dependence on India is shown by the fact that a disruption in onion imports from India could potentially lead to unrest. President Muizzu’s rhetoric of “India Out” becomes further complicated by the substantial debt owed to India, amounting to approximately USD 1.5 billionm obtained through Indian credit lines.
Despite the apparent confrontation, Muizzu’s ultimatum demanding the immediate withdrawal of Indian military presence from the Maldives resulted in a diplomatic debacle. However, India, understanding the Maldives’ reliance on its assistance, swiftly responded to subsequent requests for aid. Muizzu recently urged India to consider implementing debt relief measures for the Maldives in light of the substantial loans accumulated over successive governments. India has moved its base to Lakshadweep, another island that is strategically important.
The presence of approximately 89 Indian troops, which had been deployed to support the Maldivian Government during various crises, became a focal point and Muizzu wanted them out. Indian security personnel were deployed in the Maldives to patrol its vast maritime borders. It assisted during water shortage as well as during the tsunami and as well as during the coup. India’s dissatisfaction with the regime change is compounded by its recent efforts to assist Sri Lanka in extricating itself from China’s influence, including substantial financial aid during its economic downturn.
The trilateral maritime security agreement between India, Maldives and Sri Lanka, crucial for ensuring the safety of sea routes to the Malacca Straits, faces jeopardy amidst these developments. Sri Lanka and the Maldives share close relations and are intertwined geopolitically. While Beijing refrained from direct involvement in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, its separate efforts to resolve Sri Lanka’s debts lack transparency.
Nevertheless, while India has assumed a leading role in aiding Sri Lanka, the US has heightened its presence in Colombo, primarily in response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Notably, the US has financed Adani to develop the western container terminal of the port of Colombo, aiming to maintain its influence on the maritime front lately.
In the Maldives affair, after negotiations with New Delhi, 89 Indian soldiers and their support staff from the nation, comprising 1,192 tiny coral islands, withdrew.
During his visit to Beijing in January 2024, Muizzu finalised a series of agreements with China covering infrastructure, energy, marine and agricultural sectors. Additionally, he requested India to remove two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft, essential for marine surveillance, search and rescue missions and medical evacuations, which are currently operated by Indian troops.
New reclaimed islands for Male
However, one of the most notable aspects of Muizzu’s agreements lies in the creation of new islands. Muizzu has authorised the reclamation of land for airport development on three islands in the Maldives. Intriguingly, Sri Lanka’s Capital Marine and Civil Construction Company (CMCCC) has been tasked with this endeavour.
The project agreement was formalised between the Planning Ministry’s Director-General, Fathimath Shana Farooq, and CMCCC’s Managing Director, Sevaraja Manivannan, who hails from Sri Lanka but resides in the UK. Under the USD 42.4 million project, CMCCC is mandated to reclaim land in B. Thulhaadhoo, Th. Vilufushi, and Sh. Bilehfahi. Specifically, the company is assigned to reclaim 44.70 hectares in Thulhaadhoo, while both Vilufushi and Bilehfahi will require the reclamation of 56.34 hectares each.
During Yameen Abdul Gayoom’s administration, the projects to build airports in Thulhaadhoo and Vilufushi were initially conceived. However, it was under President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s administration that these projects gained momentum. Additionally, the Malé administration launched the ambitious Ras Malé project on December 18. Under this initiative, Fushi Dhiggaru Falhu will be transformed into a modern mega city.
CMCCC will undertake dredging activities encompassing a total of 1150 hectares of land. In return, they will be granted a long-term lease of 70 hectares of land from Hulhumale Phase II and Rasmale’, with 10 hectares from Hulhumale and 60 from Rasmale’. Importantly, this project will be executed without reliance on the State budget, marking a significant leap towards self-sufficiency in infrastructure development.
Underwater tunnel in the Maldives
One significant announcement made during the current administration is the plan to connect Malé and Ras Malé via an underwater tunnel. This project would comprise a railway system allowing tourists to marvel at the underwater beauty, thereby enhancing the tourism industry. The feasibility studies for the tunnel project have already commenced and the administration is actively seeking potential developers with the necessary technical expertise.
Surveillance drones from Turkey for the Maldives
In a recent development, Muizzu has acquired surveillance drones from Turkey. Although the exact number is undisclosed, it is reported that he ordered TB2 drones during his inaugural foreign trip to Turkey, breaking the tradition of visiting India first. These drones would be stationed on the island called Mafaru. It is speculated that the Maldives seeks to monitor its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which spans nearly one million square kilometres. Traditionally, India and Malé jointly conducted surveillance in the region. However, Muizzu’s Government has diversified its defence strategy by signing a weapons deal with Turkey to safeguard the Maldives’ land, sea and air territories. Furthermore, military agreements were inked with China during his visit, leading to the entry of a Chinese surveillance ship, the Xiang Yang Hong 3, into Maldivian waters. While India protested similar Chinese vessels in Sri Lanka, Muizzu’s administration welcomed Hong 3 unhindered.
In his efforts to diversify the Maldives’ foreign relations and reduce dependence on a single country, Muizzu seeks to procure commodities from China, unlike the past reliance on India alone. China has assured the Maldives of three military aids free of cost, weapons transfers, and enhanced ties with Malé. Additionally, Chinese delegations have visited not only the Maldives but also Sri Lanka and Nepal, signifying a broader diplomatic outreach by Beijing in the region.
India, Sri Lanka, and Kachchatheevu
This ongoing political issue revolves around the Tamil Nadu Government’s persistent demand for the retrieval of the Kachchatheevu island. While this demand has long been emphasised by the Tamil Nadu Government, due to clashes between Tamil Nadu fishermen and their Sri Lankan counterparts, the dispute has escalated recently. The Tamil Nadu Government claims ownership of the island, leading to continuous tensions in TN.
However, the dispute took a new turn when the Indian Prime Minister intervened, highlighting the historical context of the island’s transfer and pointing fingers at the Congress party for initially ceding control to Sri Lanka. While the primary concern revolves around the fishermen’s issues, India views the island’s strategic location with apprehension, fearing that Sri Lanka might exploit its territorial waters for oil and gas exploration and the former Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla also accused Congress of giving away the island of strategic importance.
France worried about its territorial islands in the Indian Ocean region
Amidst escalating regional tensions and subtle power struggles with China solidifying its influence in the Indian Ocean and Indo Pacific regions, France has heightened its vigilance over its territories in the area. Notably, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean jointly cover 90% of France’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Mayotte is an island under French sovereignty. It is claimed by the Comoros since 1975. Long-standing tensions between the two recently escalated over a Police operation aimed at expelling citizens of the Comoros residing illegally in Mayotte. This has precipitated a geopolitical crisis in Mayotte with significant implications for the French Indo-Pacific strategy.
Since 2018, France’s President Emmanuel Macron has formalised a French Indo-Pacific strategy to enhance French assets in the region. The exercise of sovereignty in the overseas collective of the Indo-Pacific (Reunion Island, Mayotte, The French Southern and Antarctic Lands, Wallis-et-Futuna, New Caledonia and French Polynesia) is a major component of the new narrative implemented by the French State.
Mayotte, located 300 km northwest of Madagascar, is a key element of this new narrative as it is strategically located in the Indian Ocean, a major sea route of the globalised economy conveying 30 per cent of global trade and 40 per cent of France’s exports outside the EU. Furthermore, several scientific studies have identified large natural gas reserves around the island. The exclusive economic zone of Mayotte therefore attracts the interest of foreign powers. China, for example, has already carried out seismic studies in this area, while Russia supports the claims of the Comoros over Mayotte.
Considering France’s extensive overseas territories like La Réunion island and its sizable EEZ, it’s evident that French foreign policy towards these island States holds paramount importance in balancing major powers in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). In the forthcoming years, France and the five Indian Ocean islands are poised to strengthen their diplomatic relationship, enhancing collaboration and exchanging mutual diplomatic interests. Seychelles, comprising a group of 115 islands in the Western Indian Ocean, established diplomatic ties with France in 1976, fostering excellent bilateral relations.
As Sri Lanka emerges as a pivotal player in the strategic dynamics of the Indian Ocean Region, several nations are striving to consolidate their presence in the area. Despite France’s significant presence in the Indian Ocean, it formally joined the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) framework only three years ago. With the expansion of Chinese influence on one side and escalating rivalry between China and the US on the other, Sri Lanka’s geopolitical significance has become paramount.
Against this backdrop, Marc Abensour, the French Ambassador for the Indo-Pacific, recently visited Colombo and engaged with a select group of media representatives, reaffirming France’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. He underscored the strategic importance of Sri Lanka within this framework, which aligns with regional Indian Ocean interests.
According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, France has maintained a longstanding presence in the Indian Ocean dating back to the 17th century. Notably, Mayotte, situated between Madagascar and Mozambique, remains a French overseas department alongside La Réunion. Among the established actors in the region, France possesses the most extensive diplomatic network, with missions and embassies in Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Sri Lanka.
Furthermore, the French Armed Forces maintain military bases in Réunion and Mayotte to safeguard French territories and provide regional humanitarian aid.
Dr. Paco MILHIET says the ‘ranco-Indian roadmap for the Indo-Pacific’, signed in 2023, outlines 12 points as pillars of collaboration in the broader region. The roadmap encompasses issues such as seabed exploration, space cooperation, maritime collaboration, solar alliance, the Franco-Indian campus and the Pacific Ocean region. New avenues of cooperation have emerged, including those related to the Indo-Pacific, strategic technologies like artificial intelligence, and climate change.
The French territory La Réunion is gradually evolving into a strategic platform for Franco-Indian military collaboration in the region. The two countries signed a logistics cooperation agreement in 2018 for Indian Naval Forces to access the Réunion base. Joint patrols involving an Indian P8I aircraft are regularly conducted. With a range of 2200 km, this aircraft can monitor the entire eastern coast of Africa from Réunion.
Mauritius and the Chagos Archipelago
Mauritius asserts its sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago, which presently stands as a British Overseas Territory housing a US military base. This ongoing dispute underscores the competition for strategic positions and potential resource wealth in the region. Viewed as a vestige of colonialism, the issue also prompts inquiries into regional power dynamics. The presence of the US military base on Diego Garcia raises strategic concerns for several countries in the vicinity, with broader implications for territorial disputes across the Indian Ocean.
Mauritius persists in its pursuit of sovereignty, garnering both regional and international support. The responses of Britain and the US will play a pivotal role in shaping the resolution of this dispute. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron emphasised the significance of Diego Garcia in the broader context of national security, emphasising the importance of maintaining security, safety, and usability of the base during negotiations with Mauritius. He further stated that the resettlement of Chagossians, including on Diego Garcia, was deemed “not possible” due to security concerns.
Islands of Indian Ocean needed for big powers
Islands may hold valuable resources or strategic locations, leading to competition between nations and Countries might use these islands for military bases, potentially raising tensions in the region. Control of islands can influence trade routes and regional power dynamics.
The Indian Ocean is a rich fishing ground, and islands can control access to exclusive economic zones (EEZs) with abundant fish stocks. This can lead to disputes over illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing by other nations.
Some islands may hold valuable mineral deposits like oil, gas, cobalt or rare earth elements. This can attract interest from countries seeking to secure their own supply or limit access to rivals. Also, freshwater scarcity is a growing concern globally and some islands may possess limited freshwater resources that become strategically important. Islands can be ideal locations for military bases due to their central position in shipping lanes or proximity to crucial choke points. This allows for control of maritime traffic and projection of military power
Islands often function as crucial communication hubs due to their strategic positioning along undersea cables or their suitability for satellite relay stations. This grants control over information flow and communication infrastructure, holding significant geopolitical importance. Moreover, certain islands feature pristine beaches and unique ecosystems, attracting tourists and generating substantial revenue. Consequently, there arises competition for control over tourism infrastructure and the potential exploitation of natural resources for tourism development.
Sri Lanka stands out as one such island grappling with these challenges. For Sri Lanka, navigating geopolitical challenges remains pivotal, especially considering the emerging global power dynamics along with India. As major players vie for dominance in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka must carefully consider its actions to maintain its strategic position and safeguard its interests as well as partner countries’ interests.
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