We examine the history of the European Union and ask if it can withstand the challenges posed by populism.
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A plenary session in the European Parliament after the vote to decide whether to lift the EU parliamentary immunity of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen [Yves Herman/Reuters]
Europe is in the throes of a far-right populist resurgence, threatening mainstream politics and the very idea of European integration.
Nationalism is playing a key part in elections across the continent, while Europe waits to see how far the far right has come, and how far the European Union has left to go.
"To understand Europe and where we are today in terms of European integration and some of the phenomena we're seeing in the contemporary period, we do have to go back to that Europe that no longer exists, the post-World War II Europe," says Alina Polyakova, the director of research on Europe and Eurasia at the Atlantic Council.
In 1945, at the end of World War II, the continent had been divided by nationalism and devastated by war. But it was also ready for a new beginning.
At a meeting in the Crimean resort of Yalta, US President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin marked out a joint plan for a liberated Europe.
It set in place spheres of influence for Soviet and Western interests, and would lead to the creation of East and West Germany.
"Europe was left completely economically dilapidated, struggling, and at that time, you know, if we think of where is the starting point for what we now call the European Union, in many ways it was the Marshall Plan," Polyakova says.
The 1948 Marshall Plan distributed $13bn of US aid across ravaged western Europe.
Sanctioned by President Harry S. Truman and led by his secretary of state, George Marshall, the plan had at its heart the aim of a united Europe.
"They want to see a united Europe because they think that will attract some of the eastern satellite states away from the Russians. Essentially, it's about making western Europe in America's own image and selling America to the Europeans. This is cultural imperialism," explains Richard Aldrich, a professor of international security at the University of Warwick.
Ideological struggle
In May 1950, two years after the Marshall Plan had been put into effect, France's Foreign Minister Robert Schuman laid bare the vision of European unity.
"Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity," Schuman declared.
A federal Europe would consolidate what the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, NATO, had been set up to do: keep Soviet power in check.
By 1955, just weeks after West Germany entered NATO, the Soviet Union formalised the Warsaw Pact - drawing in nations from central and eastern Europe in a common counter-purpose: challenging Western domination.
Europe was once more the centre of ideological struggle.
"The European continent becomes a battleground between Anglo-American influence that's trying to uphold and expand liberal democracy, versus Soviet communism, which is really tied up with anti-fascism," Matthew Goodwin, aprofessor at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, explains.
By the late 1950s, the division of Europe into two ideological blocs was a political, economic and cultural reality.
The Treaty of Rome transformed the six nations of the European Coal and Steel Community into the European Economic Community. And by August 1961, the "Iron Curtain" that symbolically divided Europe in two was made real with the building of the Berlin Wall.
Eastern Europe was closing itself off from the West. But at that same time, the West was opening up to the rest of the world.
A boom
Europe was experiencing an unprecedented boom, while keeping Britain out of its increasingly wealthy club.
The European Economic Community was absorbing foreign workers, initially from southern Europe, but by the late 1950s and 1960s from countries such as Turkey and Morocco, and, in the case of Britain, from the Commonwealth.
At the beginning of 1973, after nearly three decades of looking in from the outside, Britain, along with Ireland and Denmark, finally joined the European Economic Community. The EEC had grown to nine member states.
But later that same year, a hike in the price of crude oil by the multinational oil cartel OPEC sparked an economic crisis that was part of a wider downturn in European fortunes. It would leave the so-called "guest workers" with no work and no thought of going back to where they had come from.
"It was clear that the guest workers weren't going home, and it was only when they increasingly moved out of those kind of factory-owned apartments and into mostly white working-class areas, that it became an issue because only then did it become clear that they were here to stay, and they were going to be part of society," explains Cas Mudde, the author of the Ideology of the Extreme Right.
Foreign guest workers had now become visible local fixtures. In France, this shift stirred an anti-immigrant reaction and brought disparate sections of the far right under the leadership of one man, Jean-Marie Le Pen.
"I had the feeling that France was losing its territory," he told Al Jazeera in an exclusive interview. "And that as a consequence of these failures she would know other hardships .... So from that moment on I conducted a political campaign of 'resurgence', if you will."
This self-proclaimed "resurgence" of far-right sentiment wouldn't be confined to French soil. But just as the far right looked to take advantage of anti-immigrant sentiment and economic uncertainty, their ideas would achieve a victory, but leave their parties at a loss.
Populism
Far-right parties were emerging as a political reality, while the European Economic Community was enlarging to include Spain, Portugal and Greece. The 1980s drew to a close with increasing western European unity.
But the East would experience a seismic contraction.
President Mikhail Gorbachev's perestroika reforms failed to save the Soviet Union from collapse. The West had won the ideological war, and the fall of the Berlin Wall would symbolise the end of the 20th century's "grand narrative".
The end days of communism had brought uncertainty and opportunity to Europe. Still coming to terms with the war in Yugoslavia that had seen the rise of ethno-nationalism and the disintegration of the Balkan state, leaving more than two million refugees in its wake, western Europe pressed ahead with its most ambitious plan for greater integration. It would be signed into effect in 1992 in the Dutch city of Maastricht.
As well as paving the way for a common currency - the euro - the Maastricht Treaty made the 12 member states beholden to shared economic, social and security policies. The political and economic strings of Europe were being pulled from the EU headquarters in Brussels.
The gap between governance and the governed was getting ever greater. In 1999, the European common currency - the euro - was finally launched.
But not everyone was happy with this.
The True Finns in Finland, the Sweden Democrats and the Danish People's Party were all, to some degree, vehicles for anti-EU sentiment, France's Front National refocused its own nationalist manifesto against the supra-national union, while in Britain, the UK Independence Party would begin to campaign to get Britain out of Europe.
In 2008, the financial meltdown, which had begun with a credit crisis in the US, would be a catalyst for political and social unrest across Europe and would give the far right a chance to rush in where the mainstream feared to tread.
In Greece, the simmering financial crisis boiled over into street violence. The Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, committed to a 110bn euro, ($119bn) bailout by the troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
In return, Greece would be required to make drastic cuts to its public spending, reduce its budget deficit and liberalise its markets.
"I had to take these very difficult measures, I knew that many of these were unjust but otherwise our country would have fallen off the brink, we would have gone bankrupt," says George Papandreou, the former Greek prime minister.
The 2012 elections in Greece saw Golden Dawn, a violent, openly fascist party, claim 18 seats in the Greek parliament.
But it was a coalition government of traditional left and centre-right parties that held power in Athens, and it soon set to work implementing the imposed austerity.
In France, Marine Le Pen, daughter of Jean-Marie, had taken over as leader of the Front National, shifting its emphasis to a centre-ground that had already shifted to the right.
In 2016, the British people voted to leave the European Union. It was a victory in part fuelled by nationalism, with the UK Independence Party leading the charge.
As Cas Mudde says: "BREXIT was the first significant victory in foreign policy for the radical right."
The project to unite Europe, which began in the wake of a devastating war, seems to be being challenged by populist stirrings in the nations it sought to bring together.
Brexit: All you need to know
about the UK leaving the EU
Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the
EU
By Alex Hunt & Brian
WheelerBBC News
As the UK officially notifies the European Union that it
is leaving, here is an easy-to-understand guide to Brexit - beginning with the
basics.
What does Brexit
mean?
It is a word that has become
used as a shorthand way of saying the UK leaving the EU - merging the words
Britain and exit to get Brexit, in a same way
as a possible Greek exit from the euro was dubbed Grexit in the past.
Why is Britain leaving
the European Union?
A referendum - a vote in
which everyone (or nearly everyone) of voting age can take part - was held on
Thursday 23 June, 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the
European Union. Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The referendum turnout was 71.8%,
with more than 30 million people voting.
What was the breakdown across the
UK?
England voted for Brexit, by
53.4% to 46.6%. Wales also voted for Brexit, with Leave getting 52.5% of the
vote and Remain 47.5%. Scotland and Northern Ireland both backed staying in the
EU. Scotland backed Remain by 62% to 38%, while 55.8% in Northern Ireland voted
Remain and 44.2% Leave. See the results
in more detail.
What changed in
government after the referendum?
Image copyright PA
Britain got
a new Prime Minister - Theresa May. The former home secretary took over from
David Cameron, who announced he was resigning on the day he lost the referendum.
Like Mr Cameron, Mrs May was against Britain leaving the EU but she played only
a very low-key role in the campaign and was never seen as much of an enthusiast
for the EU. She became PM without facing a full Conservative leadership contest
after her key rivals from what had been the Leave side pulled out.
How has the new PM done
so far?
It's not for us to grade
politicians' performance, but opinion polls give the Conservative Party a huge
lead over the largest opposition party, Labour, and she recently became the
first prime minister to gain an opposition seat in a by-election for 35 years.
Theresa May's key message has been that "Brexit means Brexit" and she pledged to
trigger the two year process of leaving the EU by the end of March. She set out
some details of her negotiating hopes in her key speech on
Brexit.
What about the economy,
so far?
David Cameron, his
Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior figures who wanted to stay in
the EU predicted an immediate economic crisis if the UK voted to leave. House
prices would fall, there would be a recession with a big rise in unemployment -
and an emergency Budget would be needed to bring in the large cuts in spending
that would be needed.
The pound did slump the day
after the referendum - and remains around 15% lower against the dollar and 10%
down against the euro - but the predictions of immediate doom have not proved
accurate with the UK economy estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only
to Germany's 1.9% among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations.
Inflation has risen - to
2.3% in February - its highest rate for three and a half years, but unemployment
has continued to fall, to stand at an 11 year low of 4.8%. Annual house price
increases have fallen from 9.4% in June but were still at an inflation-busting
7.4% in December, according to official ONS figures.
What is the European
Union?
The European Union - often
known as the EU - is an economic and political partnership involving 28 European
countries (click here if you want
to see the full list). It began after World War Two to foster economic
co-operation, with the idea that countries which trade together are more likely
to avoid going to war with each other.
It has since grown to become
a "single market" allowing goods and people to move around, basically as if the
member states were one country. It has its own currency, the euro, which is used
by 19 of the member countries, its own parliament and it now sets rules in a
wide range of areas - including on the environment, transport, consumer rights
and even things such as mobile phone charges. Click here for a beginners' guide to
how the EU works.
So when will Britain actually leave
it?
For the UK to leave the EU
it has to invoke an agreement called Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which gives
the two sides two years to agree the terms of the split. Theresa May triggered
this process on 29 March, meaning the UK will be expected to have left by the
summer of 2019, depending on the precise timetable agreed during the
negotiations. The government will also enact a Great Repeal Bill which will end
the primacy of EU law in the UK. This Great Repeal Bill is expected to
incorporate all EU legislation into UK law in one lump, after which the
government will decide over a period of time which parts to keep, change or
remove.
What is Article 50?
Article 50 is a plan for any
country that wishes to exit the EU. It was created as part of the Treaty of
Lisbon - an agreement signed up to by all EU states which became law in 2009.
Before that treaty, there was no formal mechanism for a country to leave the
EU.
It's
pretty short - just five paragraphs - which spell out that any EU member
state may decide to quit the EU, that it must notify the European Council and
negotiate its withdrawal with the EU, that there are two years to reach an
agreement - unless everyone agrees to extend it - and that the exiting state
cannot take part in EU internal discussions about its departure. You
can read more about Article 50 here.
What was the Supreme
Court Brexit case about?
After a court battle, the
UK's Supreme Court ruled in January that Parliament had to be consulted before
Article 50 was invoked. This is why a two line Brexit bill has just made its way
through Parliament. MPs approved it after Labour MPs were told to support it.
But it was amended in the House of Lords to include a call to guarantee the
rights of EU citizens already in the UK and to ensure a "meaningful vote" for
Parliament before any Brexit deal was agreed with the EU. MPs reversed those
changes and the unamended bill became law after the Lords backed down, with
Labour peers dropping their backing for the changes. That cleared the way for
Mrs May to send her letter to the EU officially announcing that the UK was
leaving.
Who is going to negotiate
Britain's exit from the EU?
Theresa May set up a
government department, headed by veteran Conservative MP and Leave campaigner
David Davis, to take responsibility for Brexit. Former defence secretary, Liam
Fox, who also campaigned to leave the EU, was given the new job of international
trade secretary and Boris Johnson, who was a leader of the official Leave
campaign, is foreign secretary. These men - dubbed the Three Brexiteers - are
each set to play roles in negotiations with the EU and seek out new
international agreements, although it will be Mrs May, as prime minister, who
will have the final say. Who's who guide to both
sides' negotiators.
How long will it take for
Britain to leave the EU?
Once Article 50 is
triggered, the UK has two years to negotiate its withdrawal. But no one really
knows how the Brexit process will work - Article 50 was only created in late
2009 and it has never been used. Former Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, now
Chancellor, wanted Britain to remain in the EU, and he has suggested it could
take up to six years for the UK to complete exit negotiations. The terms of
Britain's exit will have to be agreed by 27 national parliaments, a process
which could take some years, he has argued.
EU law still stands in the
UK until it ceases being a member. The UK will continue to abide by EU treaties
and laws, but not take part in any decision-making.
Why will Brexit take so
long?
Unpicking 43 years of
treaties and agreements covering thousands of different subjects was never going
to be a straightforward task. It is further complicated by the fact that it has
never been done before and negotiators will, to some extent, be making it up as
they go along. The post-Brexit trade deal is likely to be the most complex part
of the negotiation because it needs the unanimous approval of more than 30
national and regional parliaments across Europe, some of whom may want to hold
referendums.
The likely focus of
negotiations between the UK and EU
Following Theresa May's
Brexit speech in January we knew that the UK was not intending to stay in the
EU's single market. Although there has been speculation for months about the
issue, it would have meant the UK staying under the auspices of the European
Court of Justice and having to allow unlimited EU immigration, under freedom of
movement rules.
We found out more detail on
the UK's negotiating priorities in the letter officially triggering the process
of the leaving the EU on 29 March. Here's a
guide to the key points.
Both sides want trade to
continue after Brexit with the UK seeking a positive outcome for those who wish
to trade goods and services" - such as those in the City of London and wanting a
"comprehensive free trade deal" giving the UK "the greatest possible access" to
the single market. Mrs May says she wants the UK to reach a new customs union
deal with the EU. A customs union is where countries agree not to impose tariffs
on each others' goods and have a common tariff on goods coming in from
elsewhere. The UK is currently part of the EU customs union but that stops the
UK being able to do its own trade deals with other countries. Reality Check: How could
customs union work?
What do 'soft' and 'hard'
Brexit mean?
These terms have
increasingly been used as debate focused on the terms of the UK's departure from
the EU. There is no strict definition of either, but they are used to refer to
the closeness of the UK's relationship with the EU post-Brexit.
So at one extreme, "hard"
Brexit could involve the UK refusing to compromise on issues like the free
movement of people in order to maintain access to the EU single market. At the
other end of the scale, a "soft" Brexit might follow a similar path to Norway,
which is a member of the single market and has to accept the free movement of
people as a result.
What happens if
there is no deal with the EU?
Prime Minister Theresa May
says leaving the EU with no deal whatsoever would be better than signing the UK
up to a bad one. Without an agreement on trade, the UK would have to operate
under World Trade Organisation rules, which could mean customs checks and
tariffs.
Some argue it would make
little difference because the UK's trading partners in the EU would not want to
start a trade war. Others say it will mean greater costs for UK businesses
buying and selling goods abroad.
There are also questions
about what would happen to Britain's position as global financial centre,
without access to the single market, and the land border between the UK and
Ireland. There is also concern that Brits living abroad in the EU could lose
residency rights and access to free emergency health care. Here is a full explanation
of what 'no deal' could mean
What happens to EU
citizens living in the UK?
The government has declined
to give a firm guarantee about the status of EU nationals currently living in
the UK, saying this is not possible without a reciprocal pledge from other EU
members about the millions of British nationals living on the continent. EU
nationals with a right to permanent residence, which is granted after they have
lived in the UK for five years, should not see their rights affected.
What happens to UK
citizens working in the EU?
A lot depends on the kind of
deal the UK agrees with the EU. If the government opted to impose work permit
restrictions on EU nationals, then other countries could reciprocate, meaning
Britons would have to apply for visas to work.
What about EU nationals
who want to work in the UK?
Again, it depends on whether
the UK government decides to introduce a work permit system of the kind that
currently applies to non-EU citizens, limiting entry to skilled workers in
professions where there are shortages. Citizens'
Advice has reminded people their rights have not changed yet and asked
anyone to contact them if they think they have been discriminated against
following the Leave vote.
Brexit Secretary David Davis
has suggested EU migrants who come to the UK as Brexit nears may not be given
the right to stay. He has said there might have to be a cut-off point if there
was a "surge" in new arrivals.
What does the fall in the
value of the pound mean for prices in the shops?
Shoppers will need
to keep a close eye on how much they are spending
People travelling overseas from the UK have found their
pounds are buying fewer euros or dollars after the Brexit vote. The day-to-day
spending impact is likely to be more significant. Even if the pound regains some
of its value, currency experts expect it to remain at least 10% below where it
was on 23 June, in the long term.
This means imported goods
will consequently get more expensive - some price rises for food, clothing and
homeware goods have already been seen and the issue was most notably illustrated
by the dispute between Tesco and Marmite's makers about whether prices would be
put up or not in the stores.
The latest UK inflation
figures, for February, showed the CPI inflation rate rising to 2.3%, its highest
level for three and a half years, with signs of more cost pressures set to feed
through in the months to come.
Will immigration be
cut?
Prime Minister Theresa May has said one of the main
messages she has taken from the Leave vote is that the British people want to
see a reduction in immigration. She has said this will be a focus of Brexit
negotiations as she remains committed to getting net migration - the difference
between the numbers entering and leaving the country - down to a "sustainable"
level, which she defines as being below 100,000 a year.
In the year to September net
migration was 273,000 a year, of which 165,000 were EU citizens, and 164,000
were from outside the EU - the figures include a 56,000 outflow of UK citizens.
That net migration figure is 49,000 lower than the year before.
Could there be a second
referendum?
It seems highly unlikely.
Both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have ruled out another referendum,
arguing that it would be an undemocratic breach of trust with the British people
who clearly voted to Leave. The Liberal Democrats - who have just a handful of
MPs - have vowed to halt Brexit and keep Britain in the EU if they were to win
the next general election.
Some commentators, including
former House of Commons clerk Lord Lisvane, have argued that a further
referendum would be needed to ratify whatever deal the UK hammers out with the
EU, but there are few signs political leaders view this as a viable
option.
Will MPs get a vote on
the Brexit deal?
Yes. Theresa May has
appeared keen to avoid a vote on her negotiating stance, to avoid having to give
away her priorities, but she has said there will be a Commons and Lords vote to
approve whatever deal the UK and the rest of the EU agree at the end of the two
year process. It is worth mentioning that any deal also has to be agreed by the
European Parliament - with British MEPs getting a chance to vote on it there.
Will I need a visa to
travel to the EU?
While there could be
limitations on British nationals' ability to live and work in EU countries, it
seems unlikely they would want to deter tourists. There are many countries
outside the European Economic Area, which includes the 28 EU nations plus
Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway, that British citizens can visit for up to 90
days without needing a visa and it is possible that such arrangements could be
negotiated with European countries
Will I still be able to use my
passport?
Yes. It is a British
document - there is no such thing as an EU passport, so your passport will stay
the same. In theory, the government could, if it wanted, decide to change the
colour, which is currently standardised for EU countries, says the BBC's
Europe correspondent, Chris Morris.
Some say we could still
remain in the single market - but what is a single market?
The single market is seen by
its advocates as the EU's biggest achievement and one of the main reasons it was
set up in the first place. Britain was a member of a free trade area in Europe
before it joined what was then known as the common market. In a free trade area
countries can trade with each other without paying tariffs - but it is not a
single market because the member states do not have to merge their economies
together.
The European Union single
market, which was completed in 1992, allows the free movement of goods,
services, money and people within the European Union, as if it was a single
country. It is possible to set up a business or take a job anywhere within it.
The idea was to boost trade, create jobs and lower prices. But it requires
common law-making to ensure products are made to the same technical standards
and imposes other rules to ensure a "level playing field".
Critics say it generates too
many petty regulations and robs members of control over their own affairs. Mass
migration from poorer to richer countries has also raised questions about the
free movement rule. Theresa May has ruled out the UK staying in the single
market. Read more: A free trade area
v EU single market
Has any other member
state ever left the EU?
No nation state has ever
left the EU. But Greenland, one of Denmark's overseas territories, held a
referendum in 1982, after gaining a greater degree of self government, and voted
by 52% to 48% to leave, which it duly did after a period of negotiation. The
BBC's Carolyn Quinn visited Greenland to find
out how they did it.
What does this mean for
Scotland?
Image copyright ReutersImage captionNicola
Sturgeon says a new independence referendum in Scotland is likely
Scotland's
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in the wake of the Leave result that it was
"democratically unacceptable" that Scotland faced being taken out of the EU when
it voted to Remain. She said Mrs May's decision to rule out the UK staying in
the single market meant Scotland should have a choice between a "hard Brexit"
and becoming an independent country, possibly in the EU. Ms Sturgeon has
officially asked for permission for a second referendum to be held, saying that
she wanted the vote to be held between the autumn of 2018 and spring 2019.
Theresa May has said "this is not the time" for a second referendum.
What does it mean for Northern
Ireland?
The land border between
Northern Ireland and EU member the Republic of Ireland is likely to be a key
part of the Brexit talks. Theresa May said a priority for her would be
negotiating a deal with the EU which allowed a common travel area between the UK
and the Republic.
Like Scotland, Northern
Ireland voted to remain in the EU in last year's referendum. The result in
Northern Ireland was 56% for Remain and 44% for Leave.
Sinn Fein, which was part of
the ruling coalition in the Northern Ireland Assembly before it was suspended,
has called for a referendum on leaving the UK and joining the Republic of
Ireland as soon as possible.
It would then be up to the
EU Commission "to respond to any specific questions about the procedural
requirements for that to happen," he added.
But Mr Davis said the UK
government's "clear position is to support Northern Ireland's current
constitutional status: as part of the UK, but with strong links to
Ireland".
How will pensions,
savings, investments and mortgages be affected?
During the referendum
campaign, David Cameron said the so-called "triple lock" for state pensions
would be threatened by a UK exit. This is the agreement by which pensions
increase by at least the level of earnings, inflation or 2.5% every year -
whichever is the highest. But his successor Theresa May has said she will keep
it in place, at least for the current Parliament, which is due to last until
2020.
So far there has been a cut
in interest rates, which has helped keep mortgage and other borrowing rates low.
There are yet to be signs that rising inflation have worried the Bank of England
enough to consider raising interest rates. But if that happened it would make
mortgages and loans more expensive to repay - but would be good news for
savers.
Will duty-free sales on
Europe journeys return?
Journalists and writers on
social media have greeted the reintroduction of duty-free sales as an "upside"
or "silver lining" of Brexit. As with most Brexit consequences, whether this
will happen depends on how negotiations with the EU play out - whether the
"customs union" agreement between Britain and the EU is ended or continued.
Will EHIC cards still be
valid?
They are at the moment but
no-one knows the longer term prospects for definite. The EHIC card - which
entitles travellers to state-provided medical help for any condition or injury
that requires urgent treatment, in any other country within the EU, as well as
several non-EU countries - is not an EU initiative. It was negotiated between
countries within a group known as the European Economic Area, often simply
referred to as the single market (plus Switzerland, which confusingly is not a
member of the EEA, but has agreed access to the single market). Therefore, the
future of Britons' EHIC cover could depend on whether the UK decided to sever
ties with the EEA.
Will cars need new number
plates?
Probably not, says BBC
Europe correspondent Chris Morris, because there's no EU-wide law on vehicle
registration or car number places, and the EU flag symbol is a voluntary
identifier and not compulsory. The DVLA says there has been no discussion about
what would happen to plates with the flag if the UK voted to leave.
Could MPs block an EU
exit?
Could the necessary
legislation pass the Commons, given that a lot of MPs - all SNP and Lib Dems,
nearly all Labour and many Conservatives - were in favour of staying? The
referendum result is not legally binding - Parliament still has to pass the laws
that will get Britain out of the 28 nation bloc, starting with the repeal of the
1972 European Communities Act.
The withdrawal agreement
also has to be ratified by Parliament - the House of Lords and/or the Commons
could vote against ratification, according to a House of Commons library
report. In practice, Conservative MPs who voted to remain in the EU would be
whipped to vote with the government. Any who defied the whip would have to face
the wrath of voters at the next general election.
One scenario that could see
the referendum result overturned, is if MPs forced a general election and a
party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then
claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one. Two-thirds of MPs
would have to vote for a general election to be held before the next scheduled
one in 2020.
Will leaving the EU mean
we don't have to abide by the European Court of Human Rights?
The European Court of Human
Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg is not a European Union institution. It was set up
by the Council of Europe, which has 47 members including Russia and Ukraine. So
quitting the EU will not exempt the UK from its decisions.
However, the UK government
is committed to repealing the Human Rights Act which requires UK courts to treat
the ECHR as setting legal precedents for the UK, in favour of a British Bill of
Rights. As part of that, the UK government is expected to announce measures that
will boost the powers of courts in England and Wales to over-rule judgements
handed down by the ECHR.
Justice Secretary Liz Truss
said in February that such a bill was now being delayed until after Brexit
happens.
However, the EU has its own
European Court of Justice, whose decisions are binding on EU institutions and
member states. Its rulings have sometimes caused controversy
in Britain and supporters of a Brexit have called for immediate
legislation to curb its powers.
Will the UK be able to
rejoin the EU in the future?
BBC Europe editor Katya
Adler says the UK would have to start from scratch with no rebate, and enter
accession talks with the EU. Every member state would have to agree to the UK
re-joining. But she says with elections looming elsewhere in Europe, other
leaders might not be generous towards any UK demands. New members are required
to adopt the euro as their currency, once they meet the relevant criteria,
although the UK could try to negotiate an opt-out.
Who wanted the UK to
leave the EU?
The UK Independence Party,
which received nearly four million votes - 13% of those cast - in May's general
election, has campaigned for many years for Britain's exit from the EU. They
were joined in their call during the referendum campaign by about half the
Conservative Party's MPs, including Boris Johnson and five members of the then
Cabinet. A handful of Labour MPs and Northern Ireland party the DUP were also in
favour of leaving.
What were their reasons
for wanting the UK to leave?
They said Britain was being
held back by the EU, which they said imposed too many rules on business and
charged billions of pounds a year in membership fees for little in return. They
also cited sovereignty and democracy, and they wanted Britain to take back full
control of its borders and reduce the number of people coming here to live
and/or work.
One of the main principles
of EU membership is "free movement", which means you don't need to get a visa to
go and live in another EU country. The Leave campaign also objected to the idea
of "ever closer union" between EU member states and what they see as moves
towards the creation of a "United States of Europe".
Who wanted the UK to stay
in the EU?
Then Prime Minister David
Cameron was the leading voice in the Remain campaign, after reaching an
agreement with other European Union leaders that would have changed the terms of
Britain's membership had the country voted to stay in.
He said the deal would give
Britain "special" status and help sort out some of the things British people
said they didn't like about the EU, like high levels of immigration - but
critics said the deal would make little difference.
Sixteen members of Mr
Cameron's Cabinet, including the woman who would replace him as PM, Theresa May,
also backed staying in. The Conservative Party was split on the issue and
officially remained neutral in the campaign. The Labour Party, Scottish National
Party, Plaid Cymru, the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats were all in favour
of staying in.
US president Barack Obama
also wanted Britain to remain in the EU, as did other EU nations such as France
and Germany.
What were their reasons
for wanting the UK to stay?
Those campaigning for
Britain to stay in the EU said it got a big boost from membership - it makes
selling things to other EU countries easier and, they argued, the flow of
immigrants, most of whom are young and keen to work, fuels economic growth and
helps pay for public services.
They also said Britain's
status in the world would be damaged by leaving and that we are more secure as
part of the 28 nation club, rather than going it alone.
What about
businesses?
Big business - with a few
exceptions - tended to be in favour of Britain staying in the EU because it
makes it easier for them to move money, people and products around the world.
Given the crucial role of
London as a financial centre, there's interest in how many jobs may be lost to
other hubs in the EU. Four of the biggest US banks have committed to helping
maintain the City's position. But HSBC will move up to 1,000 jobs to Paris, the
BBC understands.
Some UK exporters say
they've had increased orders or enquiries because of the fall in the value of
the pound. Pest control firm Rentokil
Initial says it could make £15m extra this year thanks to a weaker
currency.
Others are less optimistic.
Hilary Jones, a director at UK cosmetics firm Lush said the company was "terrified"
about the economic impact. She added that while the firm's Dorset factory would
continue to produce goods for the UK market, products for the European market
may be made at its new plant in Germany.
Who led the rival sides
in the campaign?
Britain Stronger in Europe - the main
cross-party group campaigning for Britain to remain in the EU was headed by
former Marks and Spencer chairman Lord Rose. It was backed by key figures from
the Conservative Party, including Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor
George Osborne, most Labour MPs, including party leader Jeremy Corbyn and Alan
Johnson, who ran the Labour In for Britain campaign, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru,
the Alliance party and the SDLP in Northern Ireland, and the Green Party.
Who funded the campaign: Britain Stronger in Europe raised
£6.88m, boosted by two donations totalling £2.3m from the supermarket magnate
and Labour peer Lord Sainsbury. Other prominent Remain donors included hedge
fund manager David Harding (£750,000), businessman and Travelex founder Lloyd
Dorfman (£500,000) and the Tower Limited Partnership (£500,000). Read a Who's Who
guide. Who else campaigned to remain: The SNP ran its own
remain campaign in Scotland as it did not want to share a platform with the
Conservatives. Several smaller groups also registered to campaign.
Vote Leave - A
cross-party campaign that has the backing of senior Conservatives such as
Michael Gove and Boris Johnson plus a handful of Labour MPs, including Gisela
Stuart and Graham Stringer, and UKIP's Douglas Carswell and Suzanne Evans, and
the DUP in Northern Ireland. Former Tory chancellor Lord Lawson and SDP founder
Lord Owen were also involved. It had a string of affiliated groups such as
Farmers for Britain, Muslims for Britain and Out and Proud, a gay anti-EU group,
aimed at building support in different communities. Who funded the
campaign: Vote Leave raised £2.78m. Its largest supporter was
businessman Patrick Barbour, who gave £500,000. Former Conservative Party
treasurer Peter Cruddas gave a £350,000 donation and construction mogul Terence
Adams handed over £300,000. Read a Who's Who
guide. Who else campaigned to leave: UKIP leader Nigel
Farage is not part of Vote Leave. His party ran its own campaign. The Trade
Union and Socialist Coalition is also running its own out campaign. Several
smaller groups also registered to campaign.
Will the EU still use English?
Yes, says BBC
Europe editor Katya Adler. There will still be 27 other EU states in the bloc,
and others wanting to join in the future, and the common language tends to be
English - "much to France's chagrin", she says.
Will Brexit harm product safety?
Probably
not, is the answer. It would depend on whether or not the UK decided to get rid
of current safety standards. Even if that happened any company wanting to export
to the EU would have to comply with its safety rules, and it's hard to imagine a
company would want to produce two batches of the same products. Here are a
selection of questions sent in - you can ask yours via the form at the end of
this page
Which MPs were for staying and which for
leaving?
The good news for Edward, from Cambridge, who asked this question,
is we have been working on exactly such a list. Click here
for the latest version.
How much does the UK contribute to the EU and
how much do we get in return?
In answer to this query from Nancy from
Hornchurch - the UK is one of 10 member states who pay more into the EU budget
than they get out, only France and Germany contribute more. In 2014/15, Poland
was the largest beneficiary, followed by Hungary and Greece. The UK also gets an annual
rebate that was negotiated by Margaret Thatcher and money back, in the form of
regional development grants and payments to farmers, which added up to £4.6bn in
2014/15. According to the latest Treasury figures, the UK's net contribution for
2014/15 was £8.8bn - nearly double what it was in 2009/10. The National
Audit Office, using a different formula which takes into account EU money paid
directly to private sector companies and universities to fund research, and
measured over the EU's financial year, shows the UK's net contribution for 2014
was £5.7bn. Read more
number crunching from Reality Check.
If I retire to Spain or another EU country will
my healthcare costs still be covered?
David, from East Sussex, is worried
about what will happen to his retirement plans. This is one of those issues
where it is not possible to say definitively what would happen. At the moment,
the large British expat community in Spain gets free access to Spanish GPs and
their hospital treatment is paid for by the NHS. After they become permanent
residents Spain pays for their hospital treatment. In some other EU
countries such as France expats of working age are expected to pay the same
healthcare costs as locals but once they reach retirement age their medical
bills are paid by the NHS. If Britain remains in the single market, or the
European Economic Area as it is known, it might be able to continue with this
arrangement, according
to a House of Commons library research note. If Britain has to negotiate
trade deals with individual member states, it may opt to continue paying for
expats' healthcare through the NHS or decide that they would have to cover their
own costs if they continue to live abroad, if the country where they live
declines to do so.
What will happen to protected species?
Dee,
from Launceston, wanted to know what would happen to EU laws covering protected
species such as bats in the event of Britain leaving the EU. The answer is that
they would remain in place, initially at least. After the Leave vote, the
government will probably review all EU-derived laws in the two years leading up
to the official exit date to see which ones to keep or scrap.
The status
of Special Areas of Conservation and Special Protection Areas, which are
designated by the EU, would be reviewed to see what alternative protections
could be applied. The same process would apply to European Protected Species
legislation, which relate to bats and their habitats. The government would
want to avoid a legislative vacuum caused by the repeal of EU laws before new UK
laws are in place - it would also continue to abide by other international
agreements covering environmental protection.
How much money will the UK save through changes
to migrant child benefits and welfare payments?
Martin, from Poole, in
Dorset, wanted to know what taxpayers would have got back from the benefit curbs
negotiated by David Cameron in Brussels. We don't exactly know because the
details were never worked out. HM Revenue and Customs suggested about 20,000 EU
nationals receive child benefit payments in respect of 34,000 children in their
country of origin at an estimated cost of about £30m.
But the total
saving would have been significantly less than that because Mr Cameron did not
get the blanket ban he wanted. Instead, payments would have been linked to the
cost of living in the countries where the children live. David Cameron said as
many as 40% of EU migrant families who come to Britain could lose an average of
£6,000 a year of in-work benefits when his "emergency brake" was applied. The
DWP estimated between 128,700 and 155,100 people would be affected. But the cuts
would have been phased in. New arrivals would not have got tax credits and other
in-work benefits straight away but would have gradually gained access to them
over a four year period at a rate that had not been decided. The plan will never
be implemented now.
Will we be barred from the Eurovision Song
Contest?
Sophie from Peterborough,
who asks the question, need not worry. We have consulted Alasdair Rendall,
president of the UK Eurovision fan club, who says: "All participating countries
must be a member of the European Broadcasting Union. The EBU - which is totally
independent of the EU - includes countries both inside and outside of the EU,
and also includes countries such as Israel that are outside of Europe. Indeed
the UK started participating in the Eurovision Song Contest in 1957, 16 years
before joining the then EEC."
Has Brexit made house prices fall?
So far,
the answer is no. But there has been anecdotal evidence of house prices falling
at the top of the market in Central London and the annual increase in the price
of property has fallen from 9.4% at the time of the referendum to 7.2% in
December.
What is the 'red tape' that opponents of the EU
complain about?
Ged, from Liverpool, suspects "red tape" is a euphemism for
employment rights and environmental protection. According
to the Open Europe think tank, four of the top five most costly EU
regulations are either employment or environment-related. The UK renewable
energy strategy, which the think-tank says costs £4.7bn a year, tops the list.
The working time directive (£4.2bn a year) - which limits the working week to 48
hours - and the temporary agency workers directive (£2.1bn a year), giving
temporary staff many of the same rights as permanent ones - are also on the
list. There is nothing to stop a future UK government reproducing these
regulations in British law following the decision to leave the EU. And the costs
of so-called "red tape" will not necessarily disappear overnight - if Britain
opted to follow the "Norway model" and remained in the European Economic Area
most of the EU-derived laws would remain in place.
Will Britain be party to the Transatlantic Trade
and Investment Partnership?
Ste, in Bolton, asked about this. The
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership - or TTIP - currently under
negotiation between the EU and United States would create the biggest free trade
area the world has ever seen. Cheerleaders for TTIP, including former PM
David Cameron, believed it could make American imports cheaper and boost British
exports to the US to the tune of £10bn a year. But many on the left,
including Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, fear it will shift more power to
multinational corporations, undermine public services, wreck food standards and
threaten basic rights. New US President Donald Trump is not a fan of the
TTIP agreement, which means it is now seen as unlikely to be agreed - but
whatever happens, when the UK quits the EU it will not be part of TTIP and will
have to negotiate its own trade deal with the US.
What impact will leaving the EU have on the
NHS?
Paddy, from Widnes, wanted to know how leaving the EU will affect the
number of doctors we have and impact the NHS. This became an issue in the
referendum debate after the Leave campaign claimed the money Britain sends to
the EU, which it claimed was £350m a week, could be spent on the NHS instead. The BBC's
Reality Check team looked into this claim. Before the vote Health
Secretary Jeremy Hunt warned that leaving the EU would lead to budget cuts and
an exodus of overseas doctors and nurses. The Leave campaign dismissed his
intervention as "scaremongering" and insisted that EU membership fees could be
spent on domestic services like the NHS. Since the referendum spending on
the NHS has continued at the same level as planned. EU citizens working for the
NHS are expected to get the right to stay in the UK, although details on EU
citizens in the UK and UK citizens elsewhere in the EU are yet to be finalised
(see earlier answer).
Sally Miller bought a house in Spain nine years
ago and plans to retire there in the next five years. She asks how Brexit will
affect this.
The BBC's Kevin Connolly says: The issue of
free movement - the rights of EU citizens to live and work in the UK - was a
huge issue in the Brexit referendum of course, and will be a big part of the
exit negotiations. We've heard quite a bit from the British side already
with the government saying that securing the status and rights of EU nationals
in the UK and UK nationals in the EU is one of the government's earliest
priorities, and specifically that it is looking for a reciprocal deal. So you
might feel the mood music is encouraging but all we can say for sure is that,
while there are no guarantees yet, it will be a big part of the Brexit
negotiations to come.
Jonathan Eaton is a Briton living in the
Netherlands with his wife, who is Dutch. He asks what rights to benefits and
housing he will have if he has to return to the UK.
BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith
says: The short answer is there is no easy access to benefits. As it
stands at the moment, Brexit aside, you will have to pass what's known as a
habitual residence test which was introduced in 1994 and applies to British
citizens just as EU citizens. The rules have been tightened up which means
for some benefits, if you have been out of the country you can't even think
about applying for the test for several months. For example, when it comes to
job seeker's allowance, you cannot even take the test to apply for those
benefits for three months. And that was done to stop EU citizens coming here and
just getting on benefits straight away. After three months, you can take the
test which looks at your English language skills, what sort of efforts you made
to find work before coming to the UK. It also considers how strong a tie you
have to the UK, whether you have property or family here and what your
intentions are in terms of staying and working, or returning. But once you
have taken the test, if you pass it then you should be eligible to apply for a
range of benefits, as long as you meet the usual requirements in terms of income
and showing you are looking for work. That is likely to continue when we move
fully on to Universal Credit. The one sort of unknown in the whole system is
what happens with Brexit negotiations, in terms of guaranteeing the rights of
British nationals abroad. And we simply don't know what that will involve
and whether in any way that might impact on how soon you can apply for benefits
when you come back to Britain.
Will a Spanish citizen married to an English man
be able to stay here once the UK leaves the EU, ask Sarah Rodriguez.
Norman Smith
says: Now, before everyone starts pressing the panic button, for the
next two years while we are still in the EU, EU citizens have an absolute right
to stay and remain here, no questions asked. It is also true that the government
has made absolutely clear they want to guarantee those rights to existing EU
citizens who are here and married to Brits after we leave the EU. That is their
clear intention. The reason they have not been able to do that, they say, is
that they've not yet been able to firm up the position of Brits in the same
position in other parts of the EU. So it's clearly the government's ambition to
ensure everything stays the same. If it doesn't, then I guess you'll be in the
same position as other non-EU spouses of British citizens. And that would mean
that your British spouse would have to be able to show that you had a minimum
income of between £18,600 and £27,200 if you were to be allowed to stay. On
the plus side, I think there will be clarity on this pretty quickly because it
is clear Mrs May wants this sorted out right at the start of the negotiations. I
think many other EU countries think the same, that it's unacceptable to have
this level of uncertainty, so it will be decided very, very quickly. And even if
it's not, the government is going to have to introduce an immigration bill to
announce our new immigration criteria ahead of Brexit. So it will be in MPs'
hands to decide whether EU spouses have the right to remain. But I think we will
get clarity sooner rather than later.
What will happen to the European Health
Insurance Card when Britain leaves the EU, asks Terry Hunt.
Norman Smith says: At the moment, we can be
sure that if we feel a little bit peaky in another part of the EU then we're
pretty much OK because we can get the same sort of healthcare as citizens
already in that country. That applies to prescriptions, GP visits and
hospitals stays. What happens when we leave the EU is, like so much of
Brexit-land, unknown. However, what we do know is that the government would
rather like the current system to continue. How do we know that? We know
that because the Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has said as much. In a recent
health select committee meeting, he was asked about this and whether the current
card scheme would be scrapped and his answer was: "I hope not." So the clear
hope of government is that we can pretty much continue with the current
arrangements. If, however, that were not possible, we could still have deals
with individual countries about reciprocal health rights, because we already
have that with a number of countries such as Australia, Israel, and Russia. But
there are no guarantees we will be able to arrive at these reciprocal deals.
So my guess is that it will be in everyone's interest just to carry on with
the current coverage. But failing that, my advice would be to keep taking the
vitamins, pack some Lemsip and stay away from draughty windows when you're
travelling abroad.
Will I have to buy a new passport and driving
licence, and will my rights to use them freely across Europe be taken away from
me after Brexit, asks Francis Lee
Kevin Connolly says:
At
the moment UK passports carry the words European Union and British driving
licences have the blue square with yellow flags of the EU. That will presumably
change after Brexit but it seems likely that the change will be phased in so
that you'll simply get documents with the new design when the old ones expire.
That's what happened, I seem to remember, when the UK joined the EU. Anything
else would be expensive and risk flooding the system, after all. The right
to use them freely is an interesting question. When we talk about restrictions
on freedom of movement we generally mean the freedom to live and work in another
country. If Britain poses restrictions on the EU in that respect then it can
expect some kind of response. But in terms of tourism there are plenty of
non-EU countries whose citizens can visit the UK for up to 90 days without a
visa. And, as part of the Brexit negotiations, you'd expect similar arrangements
to be discussed for the UK. Both sides need each others' tourists and, after
all, if you can drive a car in the United States on a UK licence then it doesn't
seem fanciful to assume that you'll be able to do the same in Europe in
future.
It is very clear that the PM and the government
want to leave the tyranny of the European Court of Justice. Why has leaving the
European Court of Human Rights (an organisation far more hated than the ECJ)
been ignored, asks Barry Fryer
Kevin Connolly
says:
Two different courts here of course, so two different
bits of politics. Crucially, the European Court of Human Rights is not an EU
institution and that's why discussions about leaving it have not formed a key
part of the Brexit debate.
The European Court of Justice - the ECJ - is
one of the primary institutions of the European Union and administers EU law.
So, while it might have a role in supervising a future trade deal, part of the
goal of Brexit was to remove the UK from the ECJ's jurisdiction.
The
European Court of Human Rights which, as Barry points out, can be even more
controversial, is a body set up not by the EU but by member states of the
Council of Europe, a separate institution which contains countries that aren't
EU members.
It's this court which has produced rulings which have been
controversial in the UK, including blocking the extradition of Abu Qatada and
establishing the right of serving prisoners to vote in elections - and leaving
the EU won't change anything here.
The 2015 Conservative manifesto talked
about curtailing the ECHR's role but not about leaving it altogether. Leaving
the court would be another big decision and the government might well decide
that it's got enough on its plate at the moment.
Adrian Wallis runs a small electronics company
and wants to know about export tariffs after Brexit, and what they'd mean for
his business.
Kevin Connolly
says:
As long as Britain has been in the EU we
haven't really talked much about tariffs. That's because all trade within the
European Economic Area is tariff-free. On top of that the EU has trade
agreements with 52 other countries as well.
After Brexit, Britain is
going to have to negotiate new deals all on its own. That's both a problem and
an opportunity.
For example you can use tariffs against foreign imports
to protect businesses you care about, as the EU does with agricultural produce,
but you do then run the risk of retaliation from your trading
partners.
The key body in all of this is the World Trade Organisation and
at the moment the UK is only a member via its membership of the EU.
Image copyright Thinkstock
One bit of
good news is that the UK will automatically become a member in its own right as
soon as it leaves the EU. That matters because in the period when
the UK is negotiating a new trade deal with the EU, and that could take years,
trade would be conducted under WTO rules.
At the moment, for non-food
items, that implies an average tariff of about 2.3%
But suppose the EU
were to impose a 10% tariff on UK car imports, for example. Well, then the UK
could impose the same tariff on German and French cars.
In theory, an
economist would say that creates a situation where everyone has an incentive to
sort out a better deal for their consumers.
The snag is that these things
take years, if not decades. They tend to be done on a country-by-country and
sector-by-sector basis.
So if Adrian is waiting to find out the
implications for his business, then I'm afraid he's going to have to be
patient.
Maybe very, very patient.
What impact will leaving the European Union have
on the UK's long term political influence in Europe, asks Peter
Hoare.
Norman Smith says:
There are
basically two views on what will happen in terms of clout when outside the
EU. View one is that the UK projects power and influence in the world,
working through organisations such as the EU and that on our own it'll be a much
diminished force.
View two is that unencumbered by the other 27 members,
the UK can get on with things and start adopting a much more independent,
self-confident, assertive role on the world stage. My take is that not much
is probably going to change.
I say that because the UK'll still be a
member of significant organisations such as the UN and Nato, and will still be
co-operating with EU partners. For example, there will still be close ties on
defence with the French.
The UK will still be the same old Britain, will
still have significant military force, will still be a wealthy country and will
still be a nuclear power, so I don't think people will suddenly think the UK's
an entirely different country.
Are other countries likely to leave the EU and
if so could we start a new free trade area, asks David John.
Kevin
Connolly says:
Funnily enough, I was discussing
this question just the other day with a French politician, a conservative and a
real Europhile, and he said he thought if there was a free vote in France
tomorrow, as the right wing National Front would like, that the French would
vote to leave.
But generally speaking I can't see much prospect of a
tidal wave of insurrectionist, exitism sweeping the continent. When a country
like Ireland has a spat with the EU about tax, for example, it does annoy Irish
politicians, but most mainstream leaders in the Europe have grown up with the
idea that the EU has brought peace and prosperity for decades. Lots of them
see plenty that irritates them about the European Union, but they mainly argue
that the benefits hugely outweigh the irritations. And in countries where you do
find euroscepticism, such as Poland and Hungary, there is also a healthy
awareness that there are huge financial benefits to membership. As for the
future, we will see. If the UK were to get a fantastic Brexit deal then maybe
others would be tempted to go.
But the truth is, lots of European
politicians want the EU to be tough with Britain precisely to stop other
countries from following it through the door.
As to Britain forming its
own free trade area, I think it seems an awfully long shot and on balance it is
unlikely, not least because there are not that many free countries around
available to recruit into another free trade area.
Britain could perhaps
join the Free Trade Association along with Norway, Lichtenstein and Switzerland.
But of course it would be joining under existing rules, so the likeliest future
for a post-Brexit UK, I think, is a future where it tries to do the best deal
possible with the EU and then looks around for other free trade
deals.
But that would fall short of creating a free trade area based on
the UK itself.
What will happen to the borders in Gibraltar and
Northern Ireland, asks Nigel May.
Kevin Connolly
says:
I think the question of what is going to
happen to difficult borders after Brexit is one of the most difficult of the
lot.
Since 1985 when Spain joined the EU, it has basically been prevented
from closing the border with Gibraltar as a way of applying pressure to the
British territory.
In fact, 12,000 Spanish people cross into the
territory to work every day and the area of Spain around Gibraltar is a pretty
depressed area so they are important jobs.
On the other hand, the Spanish
have talked openly about this being an opportunity to get Gibraltar back. Jose
Manuel Garcia-Margallo, its minister of foreign affairs, said in September the
UK's vote to leave the EU was "a unique historical opportunity in more than
three hundred years to get Gibraltar back".
But at a minimum, as things
stand, it looks to me as though they could certainly re-impose border controls
if they chose to
The situation with Ireland's border is more
complex.
For those of us for whom Northern Ireland is home, the total
disappearance of military check points on the border is one of the most tangible
daily reminders of the end of the troubles and no one wants a border like that
back.
But, when the day comes when Ireland is in the EU and the UK is
not, then the Irish border of course is also going to be the UK's land border
with the European Union. The prime minister has said we don't see a return to
the borders of the past, but the reality is that if Britain leaves the common
customs area, then presumably some sort of checks are going to be necessary on
that border.
And if the UK wants to stop Polish or Romanian migrant
workers using Dublin airport as a back door into the UK, then it is going to
have to do something about that too. Of course, what it will all mean for
towns and villages like Belleek and Belcoo in County Fermanagh, which more or
less straddle the border, is hard to imagine.
How much has Brexit cost so far and how much
will it cost by the end, asks Simon Johnston.
Norman Smith
says:
I think the truth is, no one truly knows
what the costs will be of leaving the EU. That is in part because it is at
the very centre of the whole row over Brexit, so if you talk to Brexiteers then
they assume we will be "quids in" by leaving the EU, if you talk to Remainers
then they assume it is going to be a catastrophe. We simply don't know
because we don't know what is going to happen to the economy, whether it is
going to prosper or whether it is going to flounder.
How will EU sponsorship of university research
be affected, asks Christopher Lindop.
Kevin Connolly
says: I think this is a really interesting issue and I know there is
a lot of fear around this area, and there has even been some talk that European
researchers at the moment are being put off applying for funding for joint
projects with British partners.
At the moment, EU research funding is
organised under a programme called Horizon 2020 and of course Britain, with a
long scientific tradition, is a big player in all of that. Perhaps for that reason it is also one of those areas where the
government has already done something, essentially it said it would pick up the
tab for any EU research funding that is agreed before Britain leaves the
EU. So if you secure funding in 2017 that stretches on to 2025 then that
funding is guaranteed. Again, a lot is going to depend precisely on what deal
the UK can negotiate, but if you look at Horizon 2020, Israel for example has
associate membership through a long-standing agreement. I suppose there is no
reason to think, in the end, that the EU would offer something to Israel that it
wouldn't also offer to a post-Brexit UK.
How will access to healthcare change for expats
living in the EU, asks Veronique Bradley, who lives in Italy.
Kevin
Connolly says:
Healthcare is one of those
issues that remains relatively simple as long as the UK remains in the EU. It
is just part of a range of citizens' rights that apply across the entire union.
After Brexit, I suppose there will be two possibilities. The first and
easiest would be that the negotiators come up with a reciprocal deal that keeps
the current arrangements, or something a bit like them, in place. If they
don't, the situation will depend on the individual country where you
live. For the Bradleys in Italy, for example, residents from non-EU
countries, and that will soon include the Brits, will have to finalise their
residency status, acquire an Italian identity card and then apply for an Italian
health insurance card. If they visit the UK at the moment, access to the NHS
for non-resident Brits is not straightforward unless you have a European health
insurance card. The right to treatment is based on residency, not on your tax
status. So, even if you live abroad and pay some British tax on a buy-to-let
property for instance, you might find yourself getting a bill for any NHS
treatment you end up getting while you are back in the UK.
What will happen to EU nationals who lived and
worked in the UK and now receive a British state pension, asks Peter Barz, a
German citizen living in the UK.
Norman Smith says: If
you are an EU national and you get a British state pension, nothing much should
change, because the state pension is dependent not on where you come from, but
on how long you have paid National Insurance contributions in the UK. So it
doesn't matter whether you come from Lithuania or Latvia or Transylvania or
Timbuktu, what counts is how much you have paid in terms of National Insurance
contributions. There is one wrinkle though and that is that you have to have
paid in for at least 10 years. Under
the current rules, if you are an EU citizen and haven't paid in for 10 years,
you can point to any contributions you have made in your native country and say,
"I paid in there", and that will count. That works for EU countries and
another 16 countries with which the UK has social security agreements. Once
we have left the EU, you will no longer be able to do that unless we negotiate
new reciprocal agreements. If we don't then potentially, if you have paid in
fewer than than 10 years' worth of National Insurance contributions, you will
not get a British state pension.
Is it possible to be both an EU citizen and not
an EU citizen, asks Declan O'Neill, who holds an Irish
passport.
Kevin Connolly says: I should probably declare
some sort of interest here as a dual Irish and British national myself. Of
course, anyone born in Northern Ireland has an absolute right to carry both
passports. Declan might be happy to know that this is one of the few
questions where I can't see a downside as long as you are happy and comfortable
carrying both passports.
Image copyright Getty Images
The Irish document means you
continue to enjoy the benefits of EU citizenship, and the British passport will
give you full rights in the UK at the same time.Call it one of the clear joys of
coming from Northern Ireland, alongside the rolling hills, rugged coastline and
enjoyable breaks between the showers.All you have to do is remember to
carry the Irish passport when you are joining the EU citizens-only queue at the
airport in future.
Is there a get-out clause for Article 50, asks
Gillian Coates.
Norman Smith says:
I think the
honest answer is you would have to be a legal eagle to answer this. But my
take on it is that legally it looks like once we trigger Article 50 we are
locked in, and that is certainly how the European Parliament reads it. And
there is a view that if we were in this two-year process after triggering
Article 50 and we wanted to get out of it, then ultimately that would be a
decision for the European Court of Justice.
Image copyright Thinkstock
However,
in the real world I think it is likely to be rather different, whatever the
legal protocol. I think the truth is, if we were trundling along and decided
it was all going to be catastrophic and we have got to pull up the handbrake
pretty sharpish, a lot of other EU countries would be probably be laughing at
us, but I think at the same time they would probably be quite pleased we weren't
going. So I think the short answer is: legally, it doesn't look so good if
you want to get out of it, but politically, it probably can be done with the
support of other European leaders.
Adrian Wallis runs a small electronics company
and wants to know about export tariffs after Brexit, and what they'd mean for
his business.
Kevin Connolly says: As long as Britain
has been in the EU we haven't really talked much about tariffs. That's because
all trade within the European Economic Area is tariff-free. On top of that the
EU has trade agreements with 52 other countries as well. After Brexit,
Britain is going to have to negotiate new deals all on its own. That's both a
problem and an opportunity. For example you can use tariffs against foreign
imports to protect businesses you care about, as the EU does with agricultural
produce, but you do then run the risk of retaliation from your trading partners.
The key body in all of this is the World Trade Organisation and at the
moment the UK is only a member via its membership of the EU. One bit of good
news is that the UK will automatically become a member in its own right as soon
as it leaves the EU. That matters because in the period when the UK is
negotiating a new trade deal with the EU, and that could take years, trade would
be conducted under WTO rules. At the moment, for non-food items, that
implies an average tariff of about 2.3% But suppose the EU were to impose a
10% tariff on UK car imports, for example. Well, then the UK could impose the
same tariff on German and French cars. In theory, an economist would say
that creates a situation where everyone has an incentive to sort out a better
deal for their consumers. The snag is that these things take years, if not
decades. They tend to be done on a country-by-country and sector-by-sector
basis. So if Adrian is waiting to find out the implications for his
business, then I'm afraid he's going to have to be patient. Maybe very, very
patient.
Eric Degerland asks when UK passports are going
to change.
Kevin Connolly says: This takes us to the
heart of an issue that lots of people really care about. It will be a real and
palpable sign of Brexit when there is a new UK passport without the words
"European Union" on the front cover. Sadly, the short answer is we don't
really know when the change will come about. But we can say that the cheapest
thing for the government to do would be to phase in the new passports as
people's old ones expire. So if you're looking forward to getting back that
blue hard-back passport we had in the old days, you may have a long time to
wait.
But we can say that the cheapest thing for the government to do
would be to phase in the new passports as people's old ones expire. So if
you're looking forward to getting back that blue hard-back passport we had in
the old days, you may have a long time to
wait.
