'காணாமல் ஆக்கப்பட்டோர் போராட்டத்துக்கு` சங்கம் அழைப்பு

 

ஹசீனா ஆட்சிக் கவிழ்ப்பு பின்னணி- வெளிநாட்டு சக்தியா?

மீள் பிரசுரம்

Thousands of anti-racism protesters took to the streets in the UK to warn off rioters.

Thousands of anti-racism protesters took to the streets in the UK to warn off rioters.

Photo: AP PHOTO

UK riots halted by police, communities but country remains on alert

By Sachin Ravikumar and Kylie Maclellan August 8, 2024

LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - British police remained on alert on Thursday after a heavy security presence, rapid arrests and displays of unity by people across Britain on Wednesday prevented a repeat of widespread rioting involving racist attacks targeting Muslims and migrants.

After police deployed in force and thousands of anti-racism protesters took to the streets on Wednesday evening, threats of widespread gatherings by far-right anti-immigration groups did not materialise.

But the government said it was still cautious after days of riots triggered by false online posts wrongly identifying the suspected killer of three young girls in a July 29 knife attack in Southport, northwest England, as an Islamist migrant.

Police said a further potential 20 gatherings and three counter-gatherings were planned for Thursday.

"We're going to continue the strong policing response, making sure that there are additional police officers ready to respond," interior minister Yvette Cooper told reporters.

More than 480 people have been arrested across the country so far, with nearly 150 charged. Dozens have already been sentenced with cases fast-tracked through the justice system.

Britain's most senior police officer, London Commissioner Mark Rowley, said many of those arrested had criminal backgrounds.

For Prime Minister Keir Starmer, a former chief prosecutor, it is the first major test of his premiership since winning a July 4 election in which the previous Conservative government highlighted immigration as a major issue.

Rowley dismissed suggestions the riots were political.

"Any suggestion they're patriots, or they've got a cause... is nonsense," Rowley said. "They're criminals."

Several thousand people from anti-racism groups gathered in Walthamstow, north London, on Wednesday following threats to an immigration advice centre there. Others protected mosques and hotels housing asylum seekers that were among other targets.

Rowley hailed a "successful" night that had gone "very peacefully" apart from a few criminal incidents.

Footage circulated on X showed a councillor from Starmer's Labour Party at the Walthamstow gathering calling for people to cut the throats of "disgusting Nazi fascists."

London police said a man in his 50s had been arrested on suspicion of offences including encouraging murder. Labour said the behaviour was "completely unacceptable" and the man, a councillor in Dartford, Kent, had been suspended from the party.

'BETTER THAN EXPECTED'

Sentencing of those involved in disorder over the past week continued on Thursday, with prison terms of between 11 and 32 months handed out. On Wednesday, one man was jailed for three years. Convictions have also included those who encouraged violence online.

Fast and tough judicial action was viewed as helping quell the last serious nationwide rioting in England in 2011, for which almost 4,000 people were arrested.

Starmer, who met with police and community leaders in Birmingham on Thursday, said Wednesday night was "much better than expected". He is holding an emergency meeting with police on Thursday to discuss efforts to contain any further riots.

More than 100 police officers have been injured since the start of the rioting, including broken limbs.

"I was very keen that we're able to demonstrate that if you're involved in disorder, within days, you'll be in the criminal justice system," he told reporters. "That needs to continue."

No large far-right gatherings were reported on Wednesday.

According to Logically, a company which works with governments and other organizations to reduce the harm of misinformation, the planned disorder had been coordinated by an international network of extreme right-wing Telegram channels with links to banned groups.

Former members of banned neo-Nazi groups Atomwaffen Division and National Action had joined U.S.-founded Active Club networks of white supremacist groups, neo-Nazis, and those of nationalist soccer hooligans to stoke tension and provoke clashes. They were among the first to share a list of targets, Logically said⍐.

 

Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont speaks on his return to Spain from seven years of self-imposed exile despite a pending
warrant for his arrest, during a welcoming event organised by his party, Junts per Catalunya, at Arc de Triomf in Barcelona,
Spain, August 8, 2024. REUTERS/Lorena Sopena

Carles Puigdemont: Catalan separatist evades capture on chaotic return to Spain

By Joan Faus August 8, 2024 Reuters

BARCELONA, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Former Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont defied an arrest warrant to appear at a rally in Barcelona on Thursday after seven years of self-imposed exile, before reportedly fleeing the scene with a car belonging to a regional police officer.

Amid a heavy police presence, Puigdemont had told a crowd of thousands of followers in the Catalan capital he aimed to revive the independence drive that plunged Spain into political crisis in 2017.

"They thought they'd be celebrating my arrest and they thought that this punishment would dissuade us," he said. "Well, they are wrong."

Authorities suspect that, when he had finished speaking, Puigdemont got into a white car belonging to a police officer and left the vicinity, a Catalan interior department spokesperson said, sparking a frantic search by authorities.

The regional police, known as the Mossos d'Esquadra, said two of its officers had been arrested as part of their investigation into Puigdemont's whereabouts, including the owner of the car.

The separatist leader, 61, fled to Belgium seven years ago after a failed secession bid and has been living in exile ever since.

He faces an arrest warrant for alleged embezzlement related to a 2017 independence referendum ruled illegal by the Spanish courts. Puigdemont says the vote was legal and therefore the charges linked to it have no basis.

A Mossos spokesman said there was no prior arrangement with Puigdemont for his arrest and the force had decided the detention should be made "at the most appropriate time so as not to generate public disorder."

Puigdemont ally Laura Borras described the arrested officer on X as "a patriot and exemplary Mosso."

The hunt for Puigdemont created traffic chaos in Barcelona and near the border with France as police set up roadblocks and searched car boots.

In Barcelona, several Puigdemont supporters clashed with police in a bid to breach the cordon surrounding the park housing the regional parliament building. Officers clad in riot gear used batons and pepper spray to deter them.

DETENTION ORDER

Reacting to news that Puigdemont had again absconded from under the noses of a large police deployment, a Supreme Court source said a judge had been clear in his instructions that the former Catalan president was to be arrested.

"The Mossos know that they have a detention order... they had the obligation to detain him and bring him before the courts," the source said.

Two national police unions also criticised the failure to arrest Puigdemont.

"Where are the Mossos? The best-paid police force in Spain incapable of doing their job, of arresting the coup-monger and fugitive from justice Puigdemont," police union Jusapol said on X.

Two sources with links to the Catalan government said it had identified a problem with some rogue Mossos, who appear to be loyal to Puigdemont.

A government spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment, nor did Puigdemont´s lawyer.

His arrest could jeopardise the Socialist-led national government´s fragile alliance with Puigdemont's Junts party, on which it relies for legislative support.

Catalonia's parliament on Thursday afternoon confirmed Salvador Illa, an ally of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, as head of the Catalan government.

"I will govern for everyone having into account the plurality and diversity of Catalonia," Illa said.

The Socialists hope taking control in Catalonia after a decade of separatist rule will turn the page on the independence drive.

The Spanish parliament passed an amnesty law in May pardoning those involved in the failed 2017 secession bid, but the Supreme Court upheld arrest warrants for Puigdemont and two others who were also charged with embezzlement, ruling that the amnesty law does not apply to them.

The crowd of thousands, who had gathered near the parliament to welcome him, hoped his return would help build momentum towards independence, which has lost support in recent years.

"It represents the return of a symbol," said Xavier Vizcaino, 63, who was wrapped in an independence flag.

No-one had expected him to disappear again.

Former Barcelona Mayor Xavier Trias, who was present at the rally, marvelled at Puigdemont's flight.

"It was magic," he told Reuters.⍐

 

The logo of Reliance Industries is pictured in a stall at the Vibrant Gujarat Global Trade Show
at Gandhinagar, India, January 17, 2019. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo

Exclusive: India's Reliance in crude-for-naphtha swap deal with Venezuela, sources say

By Nidhi Verma and Arathy Somasekhar August 8, 2024 Reuters

, opens new tabIndia's Reliance Industries plans to use naptha supplies as partial payment for crude purchases from Venezuela after the refiner obtained a U.S. approval last month to resume oil trade with the sanctioned producer, three sources aware of the contract terms said.

One source said Reliance will pay dollars for the balance of the crude purchase. The company was forced to stop direct purchase from Venezuela in April due to a re-imposition of sanctions but in July, Washington authorized Reliance to import crude from Venezuela. Reliance had re-submitted a request to the U.S. in May.

Reliance, which operates the world's biggest refining complex, plans to supply naphtha, a refined product, from the U.S. to partly pay for its Venezuelan oil purchases, the sources said. The arrangement is similar to past Reliance trades with Venezuela's state company PDVSA (PDVSA.UL), according to PDVSA's exports and imports records. Venezuela needs naphtha as a diluent for its heavy crude.

Reliance's two refineries in western Gujarat state can process about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. The complexity of these plants allows the refiner to process cheaper and heavier crudes such as Merey from Venezuela.

The sources declined to provide details regarding volumes and duration of the authorization given by the U.S. for Reliance's Venezuelan oil purchase. Washington could impose fresh sanctions on the South American country following a disputed election, but U.S. officials have said individual oil licenses are not expected to be modified or withdrawn for now.

Reliance did not respond to a Reuters email seeking comments.

The U.S. last year granted a broad license to Venezuela's oil industry allowing state-run PDVSA to freely export to its chosen markets, which boosted demand for Venezuela's oil and pushed up the country's fuel imports through swaps.

But Washington in April re-imposed sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to President Nicolas Maduro's failure to meet election commitments, granting instead some individual licenses to trade and operate in Venezuela's energy sector.

Loading schedules at Venezuelan ports have been overbooked, one of the sources said, which has caused delays in Reliance's resumption in taking the oil. Several sources cited similar problem for other Asian buyers.

Venezuelan production did not increase quickly enough to meet contracts negotiated with existing as well as new customers, leading to more delays to deliver cargoes since early this year. Delays reached up to 60 days in some cases, affecting importers of Venezuelan oil in Asia.

The Indian refiner had limited direct loadings of Venezuelan crude earlier this year over worries that the license could be pulled at anytime, one of the sources said. That could impact vessels in transit or at Venezuelan ports, the person added.

Reliance's refinery last received 2 million barrels of Venezuelan oil in June, Kpler data showed. It was not immediately clear who the supplier was⍐.

Bangladesh- Interim government headed by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus to take oath on August 8

 

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus waves goodbye to the media at Charles de Gaulle’s airport in Roissy, north of Paris, on August 7, 2024. | Photo Credit: AP

Bangladesh protests: Interim government headed by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus to take oath on August 8

Muhammad Yunusu asks youth to remain calm and get ready to build the country; Bangladesh Nationalist Party calls for immediate election

The Hindu - Rabiul Alam- August 07, 2024 - Dhaka

An interim government headed by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus will take oath in Bangladesh at 8 p.m. on Thursday (April 8, 2024), Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman said at a press conference on Wednesday (August 7, 2023).

The 84-year-old microfinance pioneer will arrive at the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka on an Emirates flight from Dubai on Thursday (August 8, 2024) afternoon, the Yunus Center said in a press release.

Mr. Yunus asked the youth to be calm and get ready to build the country. “I congratulate the brave students who took the lead in making our ‘Second Victory Day’ possible and to the people for giving your total support to them. Let us make the best use of our new victory. Let us not let this slip away because of our mistakes,” he said in the statement.

The Labour Appellate Tribunal on Wednesday (August 7, 2024) overturned a six-month jail sentence awarded to Mr. Yunus in a case filed over alleged violation of the labour law.

BNP holds rally

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main Opposition party when former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was in power, held a rally at Naya Paltan in Dhaka, where thousands of people gathered from different parts of the country.

Addressing the rally virtually from London, Tarique Rahman, BNP acting chairman and son of former Prime Minister and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia, called for immediate election in the country. “The national election must be held immediately, and power must be handed over to the elected representatives,” he said.

BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said election should be held within three months.

In her first public speech since 2018, Ms. Zia, who joined the rally virtually, thanked the people for their “fight and prayers” and called for “love and peace” to rebuild the country, instead of “destruction and revenge”.

“Youth are our future. We need to build a democratic Bangladesh newly to fulfil their dream, and for which they shed their blood.,” said Ms. Zia. “No destruction, no anger and no revenge, we need love and peace to rebuild our country.”

Breakdown in chain of command

The situation in the country is yet to normalise. Vandalism and looting persisted in some areas, with security forces struggling to stabilise the unrest. Key Ministry and department secretaries have stopped attending office, causing a near standstill in the functioning of the Bangladesh Secretariat. Many officials and employees affiliated to the Awami League have been absent. Numerous influential officials have gone into hiding, switching off their phones and cutting off communication with their offices, leaving their subordinates without guidance. This has led to a breakdown in the chain of command.

In the absence of traffic police on duty, students and volunteers were seen managing traffic in various parts of the capital and other districts on Wednesday as well. The capital city of Dhaka continued to see rallies by different political groups.

Business leaders raise concern

The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) on Wednesday expressed deep concern over the deteriorating law and order situation in the country. MCCI president Kamran T Rahman said, “If such a situation continues, trade, business, and investment will have a huge negative effect. This will also create hindrances to job creation.”

Business leaders across the country also raised concerns about ongoing destructive activities targeting industrial and commercial establishments.

Maintain law and order: President

President Mohammed Shahabuddin asked the police to become stricter in tackling the anarchic situation and looting in the country.

“Each police member should maintain the ‘chain of command’ and perform their duties with high morale and bravery. And the IGP must take necessary steps in this regard,” he said when the newly appointed Inspector General of Police (IGP), Md Mainul Islam, paid a courtesy call on him at Bangabhaban.

Congratulating the new IGP, Mr. Shahabuddin said the role of the police is very important in maintaining law and order in the country and ensuring the safety of people’s lives and properties. The President said that in the prevailing situation, normalisation of the law and order in the country is most important.⍐

Bangladesh’s president dissolves parliament after PM leaves nation

 Bangladesh’s president dissolves parliament after PM leaves nation

An aerial view shows protesters storming Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's palace in Dhaka on August 5, 2024. Bangladesh's military was in control of the country on August 6,
after Hasina resigned and left the country. Photo: VCG

Bangladesh's President Mohammed Shahabuddin on Tuesday dissolved the parliament, a key demand of the protestors, following Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation. 

"China is closely following the developments in Bangladesh. As a friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic cooperative partner of Bangladesh, China sincerely hopes that social stability will be restored soon in the country," according to remarks by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Tuesday.

Global observers are closely monitoring the development of the unrest in the South Asian country with a focus on whether the disturbance can be ended by an interim government and elections, and how the incident will influence regional situation.

The coordinators of Bangladesh's student protest movement were scheduled to meet with the army chief, General Waker-Uz-Zaman on Tuesday after the military announced plans to form an interim government, the Guardian reported.  

Hasina, 76, resigned and left the country on Monday. She landed at a military airfield Hindon near Delhi, Reuters cited two Indian government officials as saying. India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval met Hasina there. 

Students in Bangladesh started demonstration in early July against a quota system which reserves some government jobs for families of veterans of the country's 1971 war of independence. The Supreme Court rescinded the job quota policy on July 21. But the protests continued as students and other citizens assembled and called for justice for those killed in the protests and demanded Hasina to step down, BBC reported.  

In Dhaka on Monday, police and other government buildings were attacked and set on fire. Protesters attempted to tear down a statue of independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina's father, BBC said. 

Last month, at least 150 people were killed and thousands injured in violence during the protest.

The protests began with strong economic reasons rather than solely political motives, Liu Zongyi, director of the Center for South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the Global Times on Tuesday. 

Bangladesh is one of the world's most densely populated countries - around 170 million in an area of more than 148,000 square kilometers - and has a significant number of young people in need of employment, Liu said. 

"Inflation and economic problems may have intensified the unrest. But after the job quota policy was rescinded, the situation did not settle down but evolved into a political movement," said Liu. 

Given the US and some Western countries' long-term criticism of Hasina's tough stance toward the US, there are speculations about potential Western involvement in the Bangladesh movement, experts said. 

Qian Feng, director of the research department at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, said the unrest in Bangladesh also underscored the challenges many developing countries face. 

After Hasina's resignation on Monday, the military chief, Zaman, announced in a televised address to the nation that he was temporarily taking control of the country, with soldiers attempting to stem the growing unrest. Zaman had also held talks with leaders of major political parties, excluding Hasina's long-ruling Awami League, to discuss the way forward, the Guardian reported. 

With Hasina reportedly going to India, it is possible that the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) may come to power to form a new government. However, the road ahead is challenging, given the domestic issues related to employment and economic development, Lin Minwang, deputy director at the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Tuesday. 

President Shahabuddin on Monday ordered the release of Begum Khaleda Zia, BNP's chairperson, who was convicted in a graft case in 2018 but was moved to a hospital a year later as her health deteriorated. Zia has denied the charges against her, according to media reports. 

Analysts said the stability of Bangladesh hinges on upcoming political negotiations. If the military and the opposition reach a consensus, social order may be quickly restored; otherwise, the situation could remain turbulent.

Global reaction 

The month-long protests in Bangladesh have caught world attention. On Monday, the White House and the US State Department separately urged parties in Bangladesh to refrain from violence and restore peace at the earliest. The EU also called for an "orderly and peaceful" transition, according to media reports. 

On Tuesday, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told an all-party meeting that India has assured help to Hasina and given her time to decide the future course of action, newswire PTI reported quoting sources. 

Hasina's resignation could affect India's diplomacy with Bangladesh due to New Delhi's close ties with Hasina and her family, experts said. However, some analysts believe India may exercise restraint to avoid escalating anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh and it may not immediately offer asylum to Hasina. 

Indian broadcaster Times Now cited sources as saying that Hasina would leave for London.

No matter how the situation in Bangladesh further develops, the country has the demand to tackle its social and economic problems. Therefore, maintaining good relations with China, a country having the capacity without intention to interfere its internal affairs, is crucial for Bangladesh, Liu said.⍐

உலக மறுபங்கீட்டுஆட்சிக்கவிழ்ப்பு: இலங்கையில் இந்தியா, பங்களாதேசில் சீனா

Bangladesh's Shift Towards China and Pakistan: New Challenges for India

NEW DELHI: The eventual formation of a pro-Pakistan and pro-China government comprising the anti-India Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami in Dhaka appears to be a foregone conclusion and will be the latest in a series of challenges to confront New Delhi in the neighbourhood. This comes as China pushes its influence even further in the South Asian region. The fall of the pro-India Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League government in Dhaka comes as the latest shock for India, just months after the pro-India government in the southwestern maritime neighbour Maldives was defeated in the presidential polls in the archipelago nation late last year.

In an attempt to keep pace with the enormously superior Chinese financial muscle, New Delhi, especially in the past decade of the Modi government's tenures, has been focussing on boosting development assistance to its neighbours like Bangladesh, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan. In the past two decades, India has also invested heavily in infrastructure projects in Afghanistan. The fulcrum of Beijing's policy in the neighbourhood has been its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) global connectivity project, of which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been the flagship project. But Beijing's all-weather friendship with Islamabad for the past several decades has been of a strategic nature seen as largely aimed against India and is therefore different from its ties with other South Asian nations, where it has gained enormous leverage in the past few decades.

With the fall of the monarchy in Nepal nearly two decades ago, the Nepalese polity came to be dominated by three major political parties, of which two are Communist and enjoy close and fraternal ties with the ruling Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. Seizing the opportunity, China entrenched itself in India's Himalayan neighbour as one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment (FDI). China dramatically increased its influence in India's southern maritime neighbour Sri Lanka about 15 to 16 years ago, in the final stages of the insurgency there when the Sri Lankan Army was engaged in a door-or-die battle against the rebel LTTE.

According to reports then, Beijing gave crucial military assistance to the Sri Lankan government during the then presidency of Mahinda Rajapaksa to enable the Sri Lankan Army to decimate the LTTE in 2009. Beholden to Beijing, the Rajapaksa brothers contributed hugely to the expansion of Chinese influence in the island nation in the form of huge infrastructure projects that led to accumulating debt for Sri Lanka, while Beijing secured a 99-year lease for the Hambantota port there that sent alarm bells ringing in New Delhi. Sri Lanka eventually went bankrupt by 2022 during the presidency of Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Prime Ministership of Mahinda Rajapaksa and it was left to New Delhi to bail Colombo out with a $4 billion assistance package. However, Beijing remains one of the largest creditors to a debt-ridden Sri Lanka and securing Chinese cooperation remains a vital part of Sri Lanka's attempts at debt restructuring.

China's influence in the tiny archipelago nation of Maldives also rapidly expanded during the presidency of Abdulla Yameen in the previous decade, when it funded ambitious infrastructure projects that again resulted in piling debt for the Maldives. But with Yameen's defeat at the hands of the pro-India Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who became President in 2018, Chinese ambitions there suffered a setback. But a resilient China made a stunning comeback last year when was defeated by the pro-China Mohamed Muizzu, who became President and immediately proceeded to visit Beijing to declare his support and ask for financial assistance for his tiny nation. India's trusted friend Bhutan and its strategic position came under the spotlight during the military face-off between India and Chinese troops in Doklam in Bhutanese territory in 2017. China then began a concerted push to improve ties with Bhutan and settle its boundary dispute with that nation. In 2021, Bhutan signed a memorandum of understanding with China on a “three-step roadmap for expediting the Bhutan-China boundary negotiations”. In the past few years, India has further stepped up its development assistance to Bhutan to keep Chinese overtures at bay.

``போட்டியின் எல்லைக்குள் இருக்கும் இரு கட்சிகளில் ஒன்றாக நாம் இருக்கப்போவது நிச்சயம்`` அநுரா

 

“Prepare for an escalation”

 

“Globes” talks to former IDF Head of military intelligence Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin about the impact on Hamas and Hezbollah of the assassinations attributed to Israel and the Iranian axis’s likely response.

In the past 24 hours there has been two assassinations attributed to Israel - top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Hezbollah and Hamas have vowed revenge putting Israel ln a tense standby. To understand Israel’s current situation and the significance of these assassinations, "Globes" spoke to Major General (res.) Amos Yadlin, former head of IDF Military Intelligence and president of strategic national security consultants MIND Israel.

What has happened here over the past 24 hours? Give us a brief summary.

Yadlin: "The last 24 hours have demonstrated the willingness of the State of Israel to 'go all out' and use force even at the cost of great risks. The two targeted assassinations attributed to us were carried out in two main capital cities of the Iranian axis, and both figures had longstanding accounts both with Israel and with the US. In Beirut, Hezbollah's chief of staff Fuad Shukr, also known as Hajj Mohsin, was eliminated in an airstrike. A few hours later, the head of the political wing of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was eliminated in Tehran. The 'Munich promise' of the heads of the security forces from the start of the war is on its way to being realized, with the 'top six' of the Hamas leadership being eliminated one by one. The last ones left standing are Yahya Sinwar and Khaled Mashal."

"A severe blow to Hezbollah"

To what extent do these killings hit Hamas and Hezbollah?

Fuad Shukr, one of the men closest to Hassan Nasrallah, was in charge of building Hezbollah's military power and strategic and technological systems, as well as coordinating ties with Iran. His elimination is a severe blow to Hezbollah and sends a clear message about the long reach and the intelligence and operational capabilities of the State of Israel.

"The Israeli attack was forced by reality due the horrific massacre of the 12 children in Majdal Shams last Saturday, which crossed a red line for Israel. The nature of the attack was designed to strike a balance, so that on the one hand it would be an appropriate response and exact a personal price on those responsible for it, and on the other hand it would not lead to a wider war at a time that is less convenient for Israel."

"Regarding Hamas," Yadlin continues, "After the elimination of Saleh al-Arouri and Mohammed Deif, the killing of Haniyeh represents a substantial and symbolic blow to a leading figure in Hamas’s foreign relations and the connecting link to the Shiite axis and Iran. Hamas's ability to carry out a significant response to the assassination is limited due to the erosion of its capabilities. Sinwar, who remains almost alone in the leadership, is besieged in Gaza with restricted access to the outside world and will be hoping with all his heart to see as a response to the attack from the long-awaited unification of his allies, in other words, a coordinated response against Israel by the (Iranian) axis."

One should not be embarrassed by the important tactical successes achieved last night, and it is necessary to prepare militarily and nationally for a scenario of broad escalation and possibly even war.

What scenarios are there for retaliation from Hezbollah and Hamas?

"Regarding Hezbollah, it is reasonable to assume that Hassan Nasrallah, who operates through symmetry, will try to respond according to the symmetry that Israel created through a longer range rocket barrage, or at military targets in central Israeli cities. Civilians were also killed in Israel's attack, so the possibility that the response will not only aim at military goals cannot be excluded. Tactically, Israel should be prepared intelligence-wise and operationally for Hezbollah's response, and be prepared to stop its retaliatory attacks on Israel, and respond according to the intensity of the damage caused.

"However, we will be required to look at the entire arena of war, with the understanding that we are facing the united forces of a coordinated Iranian axis, and the retaliation to the assassinations is expected to be by the axis. Beirut and Tehran are currently working on their responses, and from past experience, they will not necessarily occur in the immediate term. Therefore, one should not be embarrassed by the important tactical successes achieved last night, and it is necessary to prepare militarily and nationally for a scenario of broad escalation and possibly even war."

"From a strategic point of view," adds Yadlin. "Israel needs to leverage the pressure that Hamas is under in order to push as hard as possible for a deal for the hostages. It is possible that the actions last night will delay the deal in the immediate term and will cause a certain withdrawal, but the elimination of Deif, the raids by the IDF in the centers of the Gaza Strip and the operation in Rafah continue to put pressure on Sinwar, And the fact that he and Mashal know that they are next in line, may spur them to close the deal. The deal will make it possible to end the fighting in Gaza and turn to Israel's great challenges from the east and north, and to enter into a possible broader war in a planned manner and in the method and timing Israel chooses, and not as a result of an unplanned worsening of the situation."

To what extent is the home front prepared for what will happen?

"On the assumption that Hezbollah and Hamas’s retaliation will be limited, the Israeli home front knows how to take it. The response to an attack on the home front is made up of five layers: deterrence - the Iranians and Hezbollah will have to think about what Israel will do in response to their response; the ability to intercept missiles and rockets; active protection; sufficient warning to the population; and entering protected spaces for physical protection. The defense will not be hermetic, but it will provide a good response."⍐

Published by Globes, Israel business news  on July 31, 2024.