PKK ends 40-year Turkey insurgency

Kurdish PKK ends 40-year Turkey insurgency, bringing hope of regional stability

By Daren Butler and Ece Toksabay

May 12, 2025 Reuters

Summary

• Jailed PKK leader had called for group to dissolve
• More than 40,000 have been killed in 40-year conflict
• Erdogan welcomes move as important threshold
• Security consequences for region including Syria, Iraq
• Group was pressed back deep into Iraqi territory

Kurdish fighters of the Women’s Protection Unit take part in a military parade as they
celebrate victory over Isis in Qamishli, Syria in 2019 © Rodi Said/Reuters

ISTANBUL/ANKARA, May 12 (Reuters) - The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group, which has been locked in bloody conflict with Turkey for more than four decades, has decided to disband and end its armed struggle, group members and Turkish leaders said on Monday.

Since the PKK launched its insurgency in 1984 - originally with the aim of creating an independent Kurdish state - the conflict has killed more than 40,000 people, exerted a huge economic burden and fuelled social tensions.

The PKK's decision, at a congress last week, could boost NATO member Turkey's political and economic stability and encourage moves to ease tensions in neighbouring Iraq and Syria, where Kurdish forces are allied with U.S. forces.

Speaking after a cabinet meeting in Ankara, President Tayyip Erdogan said the decision was an important step, and labeled the move an "important threshold" towards Ankara's goal of a terrorism-free country.

"With terror and violence being completely disengaged, the doors of a new era in every area, namely strengthening politics and democratic capacity, will be opened," he said. "The winners will be our people and country, and actually all our siblings in our region," he added.

"Our intelligence agency and other authorities will follow the upcoming process closely to avoid any road accidents and to ensure the promises made are kept."

The group's dramatic announcement comes as Erdogan seeks to capitalise on what he sees as the vulnerabilities of affiliated Kurdish forces in Syria after the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad to Turkey-backed rebels in December.

It also comes amid the group's increasingly weakened position in northern Iraq, where it is based, after having been pushed out of Turkey and well beyond its borders.

While Ankara welcomed the decision to dissolve, it does not guarantee peace. Rather it paves the way for agreeing a tricky legal framework for securely disarming the PKK, which is designated a terrorist group by Turkey and its Western allies.

"The PKK 12th Congress decided to dissolve the PKK's organizational structure... and end the armed struggle," Firat news agency reported it saying as it closed a congress.

A PKK official confirmed the decision and said all military operations would cease "immediately", adding weapon handovers were contingent on Ankara's response and approach to Kurdish rights, and the fate of PKK fighters and leaders.

Kurds make up some 20% of Turkey's 86 million population.

The PKK held the congress in response to a February call to disband from its jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan, who has been imprisoned on an island south of Istanbul since 1999. It said on Monday that he would manage the process.

However, it was not clear whether Ankara agreed to Ocalan's continued role, which polls suggest could be unpopular among Turks. Nor were details available on how the disarmament and breakup of the PKK would happen in practice.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the PKK decision was of "historic importance" and could bring "lasting peace and stability" for all peoples of the region.

"There are practical steps that will be taken and we will follow those closely," he told a press conference alongside the Syrian and Jordanian foreign ministers in Ankara on Monday.

REGIONAL FALLOUT

It was also unclear how the process would affect the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria, if at all. YPG leads a U.S.-allied force against Islamic State there and is regarded by Turkey as a PKK affiliate.

YPG has previously said Ocalan's call did not apply to it, contradicting Ankara's view. It did not immediately comment on the PKK's announcement.

Erdogan said on Monday that Ankara viewed the decision as one that encompassed Kurdish militants in northern Iraq, Syria, and Europe as well.

The disbanding will give Erdogan a chance to boost development in Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast, where the insurgency has impaired the regional economy for decades.

In its statement, the PKK said it "has completed its historic mission," which over the years shifted to seeking greater Kurdish rights and limited autonomy in southeast Turkey, rather than an independent state.

"The PKK struggle has broken the policy of denial and annihilation of our people and brought the Kurdish issue to a point of solving it through democratic politics," it said on the Firat news website, which is close to the group and showed images of PKK members at the congress in fighter fatigues.

Turkey has hit PKK fighters and bases with regular drone and other military strikes deep inside Iraq in recent years, squeezing the group that in 2015-2017 had carried out a series of deadly bombings in Ankara, Istanbul and other Turkish cities.

DOMESTIC POLITICS

The pro-Kurdish DEM Party, Turkey's third largest, played a key role facilitating Ocalan's peace call. Tayip Temel, a deputy party leader, told Reuters the PKK decision was significant for Kurdish people and the Middle East as a whole.

"It will also necessitate a major shift in the official state mentality of Turkey," he said.

Analysts have said Erdogan, who has made repeated efforts in the past to end the conflict, is focused on the domestic political dividends that peace could bring as he looks to extend his two-decade rule beyond 2028 when his term expires.

The PKK decision comes amid tumult in Turkish politics: Istanbul's opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan's main challenger, was jailed in March pending corruption charges in a move that sparked the country's largest protests in a decade.

The lira was flat at 38.764 to the dollar after the PKK announcement while Istanbul-listed shares rose more than 3%.

Some welcomed the news in the southeast's largest city Diyarbakir, where distrust of the government among many Kurds had eroded hopes that the peace process would be successful.

"It is really important that people do not die anymore, that the Kurdish problem is solved in a more democratic structure," said Hasan Huseyin Ceylan, 45.

There have been intermittent peace efforts over the years, most notably a ceasefire between 2013 and 2015 that ultimately collapsed.

Ending the insurgency would remove a constant flashpoint in Kurdish-run, oil-rich northern Iraq, while facilitating efforts by Syria's new administration to assert greater sway over areas in northern Syria controlled by Kurdish forces.

Ocalan's call was prompted by a surprise proposal in October by Devlet Bahceli, Erdogan's ultra-nationalist ally. It had been welcomed by the United States, the European Union and also by Iraq and Iran, which have significant Kurdish populations.🔺

Additional reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu and Huseyin Hayatsever in Ankara, and Ahmed Rasheed in Baghdad; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Alexandra Hudson

India loses top fighter jet

India loses top fighter jet – bad news for its future air combat

Three advanced French Rafale fighters downed as Pakistan fires Chinese missiles from its Chinese-Pakistani J-10 jets

by Stephen Bryen   May 9, 2025 

At least three French-made Rafale jets were downed by Pakistani missiles launched from air and ground across Kashmir frontier, says Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif. Photo: public domain

India has lost its top fighter jet, the Rafale EH. Three Rafale jets were shot down. In addition, at least one Sukhoi and one MIG plus a large Israel reconnaissance drone were destroyed by Pakistan’s air force.

Until the latest air combat, India had acquired 34 Rafale jet fighters. These are multimission platforms suitable for all combat aviation missions: air superiority and air defense, close air support, in-depth strikes, reconnaissance, anti-ship strikes and nuclear deterrence.

In the latest confrontation, which apparently lasted around an hour, the Rafales were carrying SCALP cruise missiles, which in the UK are known as Storm Shadow. These missiles have been used extensively in Ukraine.

The Rafales also had MICA (missile d’interception, de combat et d’auto-défense) air-to-air missiles. At least one of these missiles was found near the crash site of the first Rafale that was downed. That Rafale had a tail designation of BS-001, meaning it was the first Rafale delivered to the Indian air force. BS means single seat.

BS-001 tail of the first downed Rafale

The combat that took place was at a distance, not a classical close-encounter dogfight. Pakistan was operating over Pakistani air space when its J-10 jet (Chinese but co-produced in Pakistan) launched Chinese PL-15 air to air missiles. Some parts of a PL-15 missile have been recovered on Indian territory, including part of its AESA (active electronically scanned array) radar.

Chinese image of the launch of a PL-15

The PL-15 is China’s answer to the US AIM-120D AMRAAM (advanced medium-range air-to-air missile) which is an all-weather, beyond-visual-range missile. It has a range of 200 to 300 km (124 to 186 miles), although the export version is 145 km (90 miles). It is assumed Pakistan has the export model. The PL-15 is pretty fast. Once launched, its speed is around Mach-5 (6,173 kph or 3,836 mph).

By way of contrast, the French MICA air to air missile has a significantly shorter range, around 60 to 80 km (37 to 50 miles). Thus the Chinese PL-15 as a stand-off weapon has a significant advantage. That seems to have paid off in the recent encounter.

Two versions of French MICA air to air missile

The US Air Force has put most of its bets on two capabilities:

• stealth for platforms such as the F-22 and F-35, and
• long-range interdiction with air-to-air missiles in warfare described as “beyond visual range.”

Consequently, fighters such as the F-35 have traded off maneuverability to emphasize stealth, and have long-range air-to-air missiles to support BVR encounters.

The Rafale is not a stealth platform and, while in many ways technologically advanced, it is not as BVR capable as Chinese-designed jets and air-to-air missiles. Furthermore, even the AMRAAM seems to fall short of the mark in any competition, meaning that the AMRAAM will need to be replaced with a longer-range and faster air-to-air missile.

Russia also has a BVR air-to-air missile, the R-77 which is being upgraded. A new version, R-77M, designed for Russia’s new Su-57 fighter, has a dual pulse motor (like China’s PL-15) and AESA radar. Quite possibly it incorporates Chinese technology. Russia also appears to have a scramjet-powered version of the R-77. Nothing is known of the range of either missile, although the earlier R-77 was inferior in range to AMRAAM.

What happened to India in the latest firefight is bad news for NATO, which appears to be falling behind technologically – and it is a warning to the United States to speed up development of an AMRAAM replacement.

While the US has a new replacement for AMRAAM, designated as the AIM-260 JATM (joint advanced tactical missile), as of now it is in low-rate production and has not achieved initial operational capability. Supposedly, it has a range of 200 km (124 miles), putting it at the low end compared to the PL-15.

There is still a lot more to be learned about the latest encounter between the Pakistani and Indian air forces. There may be more bad news.

Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.