Maduro in court- U.S. kidnapped Me

Maduro, making first court appearance, says U.S. ‘kidnapped’ him

As the deposed Venezuelan president and his wife, Cilia Flores, grapple with the U.S. legal system, his former vice president consolidates power. 

Law enforcement officials move deposed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, out of a helicopter as they head to an initial court appearance Monday in New York. (Adam Gray/Reuters)

By Shayna Jacobs, Tim Craig and Mark Berman  WP 05-01-2026

NEW YORK — Deposed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro made his first court appearance Monday in New York and said he was “kidnapped” by the U.S. government, assailing the Trump administration for capturing him and portraying himself as his country’s rightful leader.

The brief court proceedings in downtown Manhattan offered the first public opportunity for Maduro to speak since he and his wife, Cilia Flores, were seized by U.S. forces Saturday in Caracas. The night time raid, which followed months of escalating U.S. pressure on Maduro, set off shock waves across the globe, provoked confusion in Venezuela about that nation’s leadership and prompted fears that President Donald Trump could act on threats he has made to other countries, including Cuba, Colombia and Canada.

For Maduro and Flores, Monday’s hearing was the first step in what is likely to be a drawn-out legal process, one that Maduro’s attorney expects will be “voluminous and complicated.”

An indictment unsealed after their capture alleged that Maduro “sits atop a corrupt, illegitimate government that, for decades, has leveraged government power to protect and promote illegal activity, including drug trafficking.” The indictment said Maduro has “remained in power despite losses in recent elections,” and accused him, his wife and others in their inner circle of amassing wealth and power while carrying out “a relentless campaign of cocaine trafficking.Follow

Maduro faces four counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy and gun charges. His wife is charged with cocaine importation conspiracy and related weapons charges. Both entered pleas of not guilty.

The hearing, lasting just over 35 minutes, combined the familiar routine of an initial court appearance with the extraordinary sight of Maduro, who only days earlier had been a strongman wielding power over an entire nation, seated at a defense table, clad in jailhouse garb and following instructions from a judge.

Maduro used the hearing to protest his presence in an American courtroom.

“My name is President Nicolás Maduro Moros,” he said, according to interpreters who translated his remarks from Spanish to English in court. “I am president of the Republic of Venezuela. I am here kidnapped since January 3rd, Saturday. I was captured at my home in Caracas, Venezuela.”

U.S. District Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein, overseeing the hearing, cut him short.

“There will be a time and a place to go into all of this,” said the 92-year-old jurist, who was nominated to the bench by President Bill Clinton in 1998.

Hellerstein pledged that he would work to ensure Maduro and Flores receive “a fair trial and fair proceedings.” The judge also read Maduro his rights, including his right to counsel and to remain silent.

“I did not know of these rights,” Maduro responded, according to the interpreters. “Your honor is informing me of them now.”

As Maduro declared his innocence in New York, his former No. 2 in Venezuela — Delcy Rodríguez, who had been the country’s vice president — was moving to consolidate power there.

Rodríguez, 56, viewed by some U.S. officials and analysts as more pragmatic than Maduro, was officially sworn in Monday as acting president at the National Assembly in Caracas. She initially denounced Maduro’s capture, but on Sunday struck a more conciliatory tone toward the Trump administration, calling for “peaceful coexistence.”

After being sworn in Monday, Rodríguez again rebuked the Trump administration’s actions, portraying Maduro’s capture as an illegitimate act.

“I come with sorrow for the suffering inflicted upon the Venezuelan people by an illegitimate military aggression against our homeland,” she said. “I come with sorrow for the kidnapping of two heroes” held hostage in the United States, she said.

In New York, Maduro also portrayed his arrest as improper, referring to himself during Monday’s hearing as “the constitutional president of my country” and “a decent man.”

As he was being escorted from the courtroom, a self-described former political prisoner in Venezuela began heckling him. The man, who later identified himself as Pedro Rojas, 33, stood and called Maduro an illegitimate president. Maduro could be heard calling himself a prisoner of war in response.

The hearing began more placidly, with Maduro greeting attendees in the courtroom by repeating “Happy New Year” in English multiple times as he was escorted to his seat at the defense table. He and Flores were given headphones to hear translations of the proceedings, and they spoke in Spanish when prompted.

Maduro spent much of the session taking diligent handwritten notes. He initially wrote on a copy of his indictment, remarking at one point that he had seen it for the first time at the courthouse. He later made notations on a yellow legal pad that he asked to take with him to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn where he is being held.

Attorneys for Maduro and Flores consented, for now, to pretrial detention, although they could ask for bail later. Both defendants need medical care in custody, their attorneys said, asking Hellerstein to ensure they would receive proper medical care.

Maduro, 63, has “some health and medical issues that will require attention,” said his lawyer, Barry Pollack. An attorney for Flores, 69, said she was injured during her capture and asked the judge to authorize an X-ray and physical to determine the extent of her injuries, including whether her ribs were fractured or bruised. Bandages could be seen on Flores’s forehead.

Hellerstein directed prosecutors and the defense to arrange for treatment for both defendants.

During a discussion about pretrial scheduling, Pollack said the case would involve “a voluminous and complicated legal process.”

“There are issues here about the legality of his military abduction,” Pollack told Hellerstein. The attorney said legal filings would focus on “privileges and immunities” Maduro is entitled to as head of a sovereign state.

Kyle Wirshba, an assistant U.S. attorney in Manhattan, said his office would begin giving evidence to the defense once both parties agree on an order sealing this material from outside observers.

The next hearing is scheduled for March 17.

The raid to capture Maduro, which Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Monday involved about 200 U.S. troops, sparked new waves of unease and uncertainty in Venezuela, with residents unsure what would come next.

Much of the leftist power structure that rules Venezuela appeared to be publicly backing Rodríguez, including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, widely seen as controlling the military, and Nicolás Maduro Guerra, Maduro’s son and an influential national lawmaker. Guerra is also charged in the indictment but remains in Venezuela.

Venezuela’s national, state and municipal police forces have been ordered to immediately search for and arrest anyone “involved in promoting or supporting the armed attack by the United States of America” under a decree that places the country under a “state of external commotion.” The decree, which took effect Saturday but was published in full Monday, grants the government sweeping emergency powers.

There were also reports on social media of new checkpoints set up in the capital by masked members of the military as well as pro-government militias on motorcycles. Venezuela’s National Press Workers Union said at least 14 journalists had been detained.

The Trump administration has offered mixed signals on what top U.S. officials think lies ahead for Venezuela. After Maduro’s capture, Trump announced that the U.S. would “run” Venezuela, saying: “We’ll run it properly. We’ll run it professionally.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, though, has taken a different tack, suggesting in television interviews that the U.S. was “running policy” rather than the country itself.

“This was not an invasion,” he said on NBC. “This was not an extended military operation. This was a very precise operation that involved a couple of hours of action.”

Berman reported from Washington. Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe and María Luisa Paúl in Washington, Ana Herrero in Caracas and Anthony Faiola in Rome contributed to this report.

Washington plans to put oil at the heart of Venezuela’s future

Washington plans to put oil at the heart of Venezuela’s future 

Trump administration bets on US energy companies reversing the fall in crude output under Maduro 

An oil tanker is docked close to the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello © Jesus Vargas/Getty Images

FT JANUARY 3 2026 

US energy companies will return to Venezuela with “billions of dollars” to invest, said Donald Trump, as he put oil at the heart of his plan for regime change in the resource-rich country.  The president said on Saturday that American drillers — most of which abandoned Venezuela decades ago — would rebuild its oil sector and extract “a tremendous amount of wealth”. “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,” Trump said.  His comments came hours after Washington launched strikes on Caracas and captured President Nicolás Maduro — an audacious move made all the more startling by the US leader’s plain signal that oil was a motive. Other US-backed interventions that deposed leaders in oil-rich states, such as those in Libya, Iraq and Iran, led to years of instability in those countries. 

Venezuela is home to the world’s largest oil reserves. China has been its biggest customer for years, with Russia as a crucial oil partner. Now, according to the US president, Venezuela’s upstream will be an asset for development by American Big Oil. Washington’s latest move will reverberate globally, said analysts. “If we really go in and do some things that are kind of extraordinary: seizures, nationalisations, letting US companies go in and use it as a coercive tool to extract massive rents from the new government — that . . . really would be a game-changer for how the rest of the world views the United States — and US oil companies,” said Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Venezuela holds over 300bn barrels of proven oil reserves, even more than Saudi Arabia. It was once a crucial supplier to US Gulf refineries set up to handle the molasses-like heavy oil extracted from the Orinoco region. But widespread corruption, American sanctions and mismanagement sent production sharply lower in recent decades, to just over 900,000 barrels a day — less than a tenth of the US’s own output. Foreign investors fled as Caracas sought more control of its economy’s commanding heights. Trump said the revenues reaped by a revived oil industry would support a new regime in Venezuela — and compensate the Big Oil investors “that were taken advantage of”. Oil industry veterans and their advisers struck a more cautious tone. “American companies, of course, would be tantalised by the opportunity to return to a neighbour with the world’s largest oil reserves,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former adviser to George W Bush. “However — there’s a big however — there is history and there is uncertainty and we think they are going to look very carefully before they leap.” Chevron, the only US oil company with a presence in Venezuela, said it would continue to operate in “full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations” but has not commented on expansion plans.  “Chevron remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets,” said a spokesperson. 

The US oil major is well placed to move quickly in Venezuela, where it operates under a special licence from the Trump administration and employs about 3,000 people with its joint venture partners. “The silver bullet for investment for the time being is Chevron because they are already there,” said Ali Moshiri, a former Chevron executive who is currently raising funds to invest in Venezuela’s oil sector. “They have the infrastructure and the people while other companies don’t.” Others were doubtful that investors would rush to the country given decades of instability and the scale of the investment needed in Venezuela’s unconventional heavy oil sector. “The capital we are talking about is massive. Just to maintain production at current levels to 2040 would require about $65bn and northward of $100bn just to get Venezuelan production back to 2mn barrels per day,” said Schreiner Parker, an analyst at energy consultancy Rystad. “This is not something American companies will be running towards just hours after an intervention.” 

Exxon Mobil, the largest US oil company, was among several western groups whose assets were expropriated by Venezuela’s former populist President Hugo Chávez in 2007. It was awarded $1.6bn by an international arbitration panel in 2014 over the nationalisation of its Cerro Negro Project in the Orinoco oil belt.  Last year a World Bank arbitration tribunal dismissed Venezuela’s request to annul a $8.37bn arbitration award to ConocoPhillips over the expropriation of its Hamaca, Petrozuata and Corocoro projects. 

Exxon and Conoco are still seeking payment of most of the compensation awards — a fight that Trump has used to justify his removal of Maduro with repeated references to “stolen oil”. The companies did not respond to requests for comment. 

International oil traders will react to Trump’s move when crude markets open on Sunday — but abundant global supplies have helped free the president’s hands. International benchmark Brent settled just above $60 a barrel on Friday, down from over $120 after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Any disruption to supplies out of Venezuela, which Trump said on Saturday remained under embargo, could push prices higher. But it would take much longer for any extra oil production to be brought on line and volumes could be modest. Analysts said with hefty investment Venezuelan output could potentially double to over 2mn b/d in the coming decade — still less than half Texas’s oil production. “We remain wary of declaring mission accomplished for the Venezuelan oil sector given the decades long decline and still believe that it will be a long road back,” said Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst now at RBC Capital Markets. 

Data visualisation by Clara Murray

`மனிதாபிமான மீன்பிடி` 11 இந்திய மீனவர் கைது!

உள்ளூர் வடகடலில் 

சட்டவிரோத மீன்பிடியில் ஈடுபட்ட இந்திய மீன்பிடிப் படகுடன் 11 இந்திய மீனவர் கடற்படையினரால் கைது.

இலங்கைக் கடற்படை இணைய தளம் 01-01-2026

இலங்கை கடற்படை, 2025 ஜனவரி 01 அன்று இரவு யாழ்ப்பாணம் காரைநகர் கோவிலான் பகுதிக்கு அருகில் உள்ள இலங்கை கடற்பரப்பில் நடத்திய சிறப்பு தேடுதல் நடவடிக்கையின் போது, உள்ளூர் கடற்பரப்பில் சட்டவிரோத மீன்பிடி நடவடிக்கைகளில் ஈடுபட்டிருந்த ஒரு (01) இந்திய மீன்பிடி படகுடன் பதினொரு (11) இந்திய மீனவர்களை கடற்படையினர் கைப்பற்றினர்.

அதன்படி, , 2025 ஜனவரி 01 அன்று இரவு, வடக்கு கடற்படை கட்டளைப் பிரிவு, யாழ்ப்பாணம் காரைநகர் கோவிலான் பகுதிக்கு அருகில் உள்ள உள்ளூர் கடல் எல்லைக்குள் நுழைந்து சட்டவிரோத மீன்பிடி நடவடிக்கைகளில் ஈடுபட்டிருந்த பல இந்திய மீன்பிடி படகுகளைக் கண்காணித்தது, மேலும் அந்த மீன்பிடி படகுகளை நாட்டின் கடல் எல்லையிலிருந்து அகற்ற வடக்கு கடற்படை கட்டளைப் பிரிவுடன் இணைக்கப்பட்ட கப்பல்களால் ஒரு சிறப்பு நடவடிக்கை மேற்கொள்ளப்பட்டது.

அந்த நேரத்தில், இலங்கை கடற்படை உள்ளூர் கடல் எல்லையில் சட்டவிரோத மீன்பிடி நடவடிக்கைகளில் தொடர்ந்து ஈடுபட்டிருந்த ஒரு (01) இந்திய மீன்பிடிப் படகில் சட்டப்பூர்வமாக ஏறி ஆய்வு செய்ததுடன், மேலும் எல்லைச் சட்டங்களை மீறி சட்டவிரோத மீன்பிடி நடவடிக்கைகளில் ஈடுபட்டிருந்த (01) இந்திய மீன்பிடி படகுடன் பதினொரு (11) இந்திய மீனவர்கள் கடற்படையினரால் கைப்பற்றப்பட்டனர்.

மேலும், இந்த நடவடிக்கையின் மூலம் கடற்படையினரால் கைப்பற்றப்பட்ட இந்திய மீன்பிடி படகு மற்றும் இந்திய மீனவர்கள் மேலதிக சட்ட நடவடிக்கைகளுக்காக மைலடி மீன்வள ஆய்வாளரிடம் ஒப்படைக்கப்பட்டனர். 

Israel suspended 37 aid organisations

 

View of humanitarian supplies for Gaza, with the logos of Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF, and the World Health Organization, stored at Egyptian Red Crescent warehouses in the Egyptian border town of El Arish, Egypt, April 8, 2025 [Benoit Tessier/Pool via Reuters]

Recap of recent developments

• Dozens of international aid groups are at risk of deregistration, potentially forcing closures or restrictions on operating in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, if they ​do not comply with new criteria set by Israeli authorities.
• The United Kingdom, Canada, France and others say in a joint statement that the humanitarian situation ‍in Gaza has worsened ‍again and is of serious concern.
• US President Donald Trump says Hamas will have “hell to pay” if it fails to disarm in Gaza and insisted that Israel had “lived up” to the truce plan, as he presented a united front with Benjamin Netanyahu during the Israeli prime minister’s visit to Florida.
• Trump also says ​he ‍hopes to reach ‍phase two ⁠of the Gaza plan “very quickly”.
• Israel defends its formal recognition of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, but several countries at the United Nations question whether the move aims to relocate Palestinians from Gaza or to establish military bases.

Israel’s ban on aid groups to have ‘horrific’, ‘immediate’ consequences on Gaza, doctor says

Dr James Smith, an emergency physician who has volunteered in Gaza, has pushed back against Israel’s claim that the newly suspended aid groups manage a small number of programmes as “misinformation”.

“A situation that is already horrific will be made even more horrific. The changes will be immediate, and they will be ruthless,” he said.

The move is “an extension of Israel’s longstanding strategy of titrating humanitarian access and humanitarian services as a core pillar of the occupation and of the genocide”, Smith said. “Israel wants to exert totalising control over all aspects of Palestinian life, not only in Gaza but throughout occupied Palestine.”

Which organisations are being suspended?

Israel says 37 organisations have failed to meet its new rules for aid groups working in the Gaza Strip, and are suspended starting January 1.

The most prominent organisations – which provide essential medical care, food and children’s services – include:

• Doctors Without Borders
• Norwegian Refugee Council
• International Rescue Committee
• Caritas
• Oxfam
• ActionAid
• Action Against Hunger
• CARE

‘Where is the ceasefire?’

Batoul Abu Shawish, 20, lost her entire family in an Israeli strike that targeted their home in Nuseirat during the ceasefire in November 2025 [Abdelhakim Abu Riash/Al Jazeera]

The only survivor

Sanaa’s husband was one of the more than 71,250 Palestinians killed by Israel during the war.

Twenty-year-old Batoul Abu Shawish can count her father, mother, two brothers and two sisters – her whole immediate family – among that number.

Batoul comes into the new year wishing for only one thing: to be with her family.

Her heartbreaking loss came just a month before the end of the year, on November 22.

Despite the ceasefire, an Israeli bomb struck the home her family had fled to in central Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp.

“I was sitting with my two sisters. My brothers were in their room, my father had just returned from outside, and my mother was preparing food in the kitchen,” she recalled, eyes vacant, describing the day.

“In an instant, everything turned to darkness and thick dust. I didn’t realise what was happening around me, not even that it was bombing, due to the shock,” Batoul added, as she stood next to the ruins of her destroyed home.

She was trapped under the debris of the destroyed home for about an hour, unable to move, calling for help from anyone nearby.

“I couldn’t believe what was happening. I wished I were dead, unaware, trying to escape the thought of what had happened to my family,” Batoul said.

“I called for them one by one, and there was no sound. My mother, father, siblings, no one.”

After being rescued, she was found to have severe injuries to her hand and was immediately transferred to hospital.

“I was placed on a stretcher above extracted bodies, covered in sheets. I panicked and asked my uncle who was with me: ‘Who are these people?’ He said they were from the house next to ours,” she recalled.

As soon as Batoul arrived at the hospital, she was rushed into emergency surgery on her hand before she could learn about what had happened to her family.

 “I kept asking everyone, ‘Where is my mom? Where is my dad?’ They told me they were fine, just injured in other departments.”

“I didn’t believe them,” Batoul added, “but I was also afraid to call them liars.”

The following day, her uncles broke the news to Batoul that she had lost her mother and siblings. Her father, they told her, was still in critical condition in the intensive care unit.

“They gathered around me, and they were all crying. I understood on my own,” she said.

“I broke down, crying in disbelief, then said goodbye to them one by one before the funeral.”

Batoul’s father later succumbed to his injuries three days after the incident, leaving her alone to face her grief.

“I used to go to the ICU every day and whisper in my father’s ear, asking him to wake up again, for me and for himself, but he was completely unconscious,” Batoul said as she scrolled through photos of her father on her mobile phone.

“When he died, it felt as if the world had gone completely dark before my eyes.”

Batoul al-Shawish holds a photo on her phone showing her with her family, including her father, mother, and siblings Muhammad, Youssef, Tayma, and Habiba [Abdelhakim Abu Riash/Al Jazeera]

‘Where is the ceasefire?’

Israel said that it conducted the strikes in Nuseirat in response to an alleged gunman crossing into Israel-held territory in Gaza, although it is unclear why civilian homes in Nuseirat were therefore targeted.

According to Gaza’s Government Media Office and the Ministry of Health, around 2,613 Palestinian families were completely wiped out during the war on the Gaza Strip up until the announcement of the ceasefire in October 2025.

Those families had all of their members killed, and their names erased from the civil registry.

The same figures indicate that approximately 5,943 families were left with only a single surviving member after the rest were killed, an agonising reflection of the scale of social and human loss caused by the war.

These figures may change as documentation continues and bodies are recovered from beneath the rubble.

For Batoul, her family was anything but ordinary; they were known for their deep bond and love for one another.

“My father was deeply attached to my mother and never hid his love for her in front of anyone, and that reflected on all of us.”

“My mother was my closest friend, and my siblings loved each other beyond words. Our home was full of pleasant surprises and warmth,” she added.

“Even during the war, we used to sit together, hold family gatherings, and help one another endure so much of what we were going through.”

The understandable grief that has overtaken Batoul leaves no room for wishes for a new year or talk of a near future, at least for now.

One question, however, weighs heavily on her: why was her peaceful family targeted, especially during a ceasefire?

“Where is the ceasefire they talk about? It’s just a lie,” she said.

“My family and I survived bombardment, two years of war. An apartment next to our home in eastern Nuseirat was hit, and we fled together to here. We lived through hunger, food shortages, and fear together. Then we thought we had survived, that the war was over.”

“But sadly, they’re gone, and they left me alone.”

Batoul holds onto one wish from the depths of her heart: to join her family as soon as possible.

At the same time, she carries an inner resignation that perhaps it is her fate to live this way, like so many others in Gaza who have lost their families.

“If life is written for me, I will try to fulfil my mother’s dream that I be outstanding in my field and generous to others,” said Batoul, a second-year university student studying multimedia, who is currently living with her uncle and his family.

“Life without family,” she said, “is living with an amputated heart, in darkness for the rest of your life, and there are so many like that now in Gaza.”

PTA by another name, and a familiar democratic failure

PTA by another name, and a familiar democratic failure

By Ceylon Today -January 1, 2026

Sri Lanka has been here before — often, and at great cost. Each time the language of national security has been used to justify exceptional laws; democratic safeguards have weakened, public trust has frayed, and ordinary citizens have borne the consequences. The proposed Protection of the State from Terrorism (PSTA) Bill threatens to entrench that legacy rather than end it, despite repeated assurances that the long-reviled Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) would finally be abolished.

The letter submitted recently by 33 academics, journalists, social activists, and civil society members to Justice Minister Harshana Nanayakkara gives voice to a concern that has been steadily gathering momentum. Their description of the Bill as ‘PTA+’ is not rhetorical excess, but a considered assessment grounded in Sri Lanka’s own experience of emergency lawmaking. It reflects a growing fear that the Government is seeking to preserve, and even expand, the architecture of repression under a more palatable title.

Sri Lankan president signs PTA
order of Muslim man as rights groups
condemn arrest Apr 7, 2025

For more than four decades, the PTA has remained among the most discredited laws in Sri Lanka’s statute books. Enacted in 1979 as a temporary measure and made permanent in 1982, it enabled prolonged detention without charge, eroded judicial oversight, and fostered conditions that allowed torture, enforced disappearances, and arbitrary arrests. These violations were not incidental, but flowed from a legal framework that privileged executive power over constitutional safeguards, as repeatedly documented by local rights groups, UN bodies, and foreign governments.

Successive administrations acknowledged these failures, at least in principle, with repeated pledges to reform or abolish the law, particularly after the war. The present Government went further, explicitly committing to repeal the PTA — a promise reaffirmed by Justice Minister Harshana Nanayakkara in Parliament in January and again before civil society in May. It is against this unambiguous record that the proposed PSTA Bill must be assessed.

The substance of the proposed Bill justifies the concern it has generated. By reportedly expanding the definition of terrorism to encompass acts and expressions that may overlap with protest, dissent, and critical speech, it risks criminalising core democratic activity. When coupled with enhanced surveillance powers and access to private communications and financial information, the danger is clear. In a country where national security laws have repeatedly been used against journalists, activists, trade unionists, and minorities, these risks are real, not speculative. The manner in which the Bill has been advanced is equally troubling. Legislation of such breadth demands public consultation, rigorous parliamentary scrutiny, and a transparent justification. Instead, the Government appears to be acting with undue haste, denying citizens a meaningful debate on whether a specialised anti-terror law is even necessary. As the signatories note, existing criminal law already addresses violence, conspiracy, and organised crime without undermining fundamental rights. The call for a white paper is therefore responsible, not obstructive. If a new framework is truly required, the Government must explain its necessity, identify gaps in current law, and demonstrate compliance with constitutional and international human rights standards — while also accounting for the repeated delay in repealing the PTA.

That these warnings come from academics, senior journalists, human rights advocates, and former PTA detainees lend them particular weight. Their concerns are grounded in lived experience as much as legal principle.

At a time when Sri Lanka speaks of democratic renewal, the choice it makes on national security law will be a defining test. Replacing the PTA with a broader version under another name would represent continuity, not reform, reinforcing the perception that repression is merely being repackaged.

If the Government is serious about breaking with the past, it must begin by keeping its word. That means withdrawing the PSTA Bill, repealing the PTA, and engaging in an open, inclusive discussion about security that does not subordinate liberty to executive power. Anything less will confirm that Sri Lanka has learnt little from its own history — and is once again prepared to repeat it.

Forecasting the world in 2026

Forecasting the world in 2026

FT writers’ predictions for the new year, from the likelihood of higher Trump tariffs to the future of interest rates and the arrival of humanoid helpers

© Arusyak Pivazyan 

The FT’s forecasters did get one big thing right last year: Donald Trump’s return as US president has made the world even more unpredictable. Usually we are wrong on a couple of the 20 predictions (OK, sometimes four or five). Last year, we got seven wrong, our worst tally ever. There was no Ukraine-Russia peace deal — though talks have gone to the wire; US interest rates did fall; Elon Musk and Trump did fall out (though have since made up somewhat); Britain’s Labour government did produce another big tax-raising Budget. We were light heartedly over-optimistic on bitcoin’s prospects of topping $200,000, and too pessimistic on electric vehicles reaching a quarter of all global auto sales.

Undaunted, our writers are sticking their necks out again on topics ranging from the US midterms to China’s renminbi, the artificial intelligence bubble, private credit, and whether we will have humanoid robots in our homes and a functioning commercial quantum computer. Read on to find out more.

The FT’s crystal-ball gazers were again humbled by the winner of our reader competition, who asked not to be named, with 18 correct answers. To join in this year, submit your answers via the link below, with your real name and email address. Happy New Year! Neil Buckley

FT readers: submit your predictions for 2026

Will Trump’s tariffs on average end the year higher than now?

No. Having come into office threatening tariffs in all directions for reasons including raising revenue, protecting key industries, coercing trading partners into political alignment and closing the trade deficit, the US president has discovered it is more complicated than that. A big fall in stocks after April’s “liberation day”, threats of retaliation from China, other countries offering him concessions and rising consumer prices have taken the momentum out of his tariff campaign. By the year-end, a forthcoming Supreme Court ruling may have forced him to replace existing tariffs with different duties, but he will have largely backed off threats of new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and reduced others with ad hoc deals. Alan Beattie

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be forced to give up the Donbas as part of a peace deal for Ukraine?

No. Russia is demanding Ukraine give up the quarter of Donetsk province and the sliver of Luhansk that it has not been able to conquer after nearly four years of full-scale war. US negotiators appear to also believe that this is the price that Kyiv must pay for peace. But surrendering the rest of the Donbas would be too perilous for Zelenskyy for military, constitutional and political reasons. Pulling out to create a demilitarised zone that neither side controls would be unworkable and unacceptable to Moscow or Kyiv. Only an improbable collapse of its defences would force Ukraine to capitulate. Ben Hall

Will Republicans lose control of Capitol Hill?

Yes. Democrats will regain the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections but narrowly miss taking back the Senate. Controlling the lower chamber will enable Democrats to block Donald Trump’s agenda and open investigations into malfeasance in his administration. A third — though probably just as ill-fated — Trump impeachment process cannot be ruled out. Trump will do all he can between now and November to prevent a Democratic victory. Edward Luce

Will the AI bubble burst?

Yes. The easy money in the AI trade is behind us, three years after ChatGPT emerged, and investors are already asking tougher questions of the tech titans — witness the challenge to chips giant Nvidia stemming from Google’s AI catch-up and the pullback in the value of Meta. In that sense, the hype has already peaked. Now, even if AI underdelivers on function or value, those enormous diversified companies will survive just fine, which will help limit any broad market sell-offs to 10 to 15 per cent. But expect the froth to come off in 2026, with embarrassing losses in venture capital and private equity and blow-ups in smaller companies. Katie Martin

Will France hold snap elections?

No. With presidential elections due in spring 2027, most political parties are turning their minds to that

race. They see little incentive in a rerun of a 2024 legislative ballot that fragmented parliament, weakened a centrist bloc and made passing a budget or other legislation tortuous.

Polls show that splintering would persist in another snap election, giving no single force a majority; Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National is the only party that stands to gain. President Emmanuel Macron has shot down any suggestion he would call an early presidential election. Sarah White

Will China’s renminbi appreciate?

No, not meaningfully. China’s enormous trade surplus says its currency is undervalued; its deflationary economy says it will stay that way. Foreigners may impose more tariffs on China during 2026 but the authorities are likely to absorb them rather than allow the currency to rise.

The renminbi stands at 7.01 versus the dollar. One-year forwards trade at 6.89. The currency will end 2026 no higher than that. Robin Harding

Will the firewall against Germany’s AfD collapse?

No. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s refusal to let his conservative CDU engage with the AfD — locally and nationally — will be severely tested if the far-right party makes big gains in five scheduled regional elections. In the eastern state of Saxony Anhalt in September, the party co-led by Alice Weidel is projected to win close to a majority of seats, ahead of the ruling CDU.

Pressure within the CDU to revisit the Brandmauer rather than partner with the left will intensify — but any shift would probably fracture Merz’s governing coalition with the Social Democrats. Anne-Sylvaine Chassany

Will Sanae Takaichi still be Japan’s prime minister a year from now?

Yes. Statistically, the odds of any Japanese prime minister lasting more than a year are not good. And Takaichi, since October Japan’s first female PM, has plenty stacked against her: factions in her own party see her as too hardline, Beijing is doing all it can to destabilise her, and she has risen to the top job without a general election mandate.

But Takaichi represents something new in Japanese politics: she is a straight talker at a time of rising populism and remains popular even as inflation persists and interest rates rise. Bet on a spring general election, and a consolidation of power. Leo Lewis

Will central banks cease the rate-cutting cycle?

No. With Japan as a notable exception, central banks are more likely than not to cut interest rates further in 2026. Led by the US and the new Federal Reserve chair (probably Kevin Hassett), officials across the world are willing to ignore residual inflation and cut rates to what they think is a new normal and beyond. The Fed will point to rapid growth driven by high tech, arguing this is a rerun of the 1990s productivity boom.

European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde says monetary policy is in a good place, but the central bank will be willing to stimulate a bit more if growth falters. Chris Giles

Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?

Yes. The Westminster cliché is “febrile” — that is already how the atmosphere around the Labour leadership of Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has felt in 2025. Look out for May, when poor Labour results in elections in Scotland, Wales and some English councils and likely success for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could provide the impetus for a change at the top.

Contenders are already jostling. But a challenge would face big obstacles. During Labour’s last period in government, coups failed for lack of commitment and co-ordination. A leadership challenger needs the backing of 20 per cent of Labour MPs and to get past the party’s national executive. Miranda Green

Will more private credit ‘cockroaches’ emerge and cause significant losses?

Yes. Defaults on private loans have nearly tripled since 2022, as higher interest rates tested companies that racked up debt when rates were near zero. Even though the Fed has started cutting, that will not be enough for some. Many companies will need more time or an infusion of extra cash, and some will follow First Brands and Tricolor into messy bankruptcies. That will inflict losses on investors but would not destabilise the broader financial system unless the US economy does much worse. Brooke Masters

Will Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel?

No. As much as Trump wants it to happen after brokering a fragile ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, the odds are stacked against it. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has stood firm in insisting that the kingdom would only normalise if there were a “clear path” to establishing a Palestinian state.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vociferously rejects this. Even if he loses this year’s election, Israel is unlikely to significantly soften its stance. And, given the outrage in the Muslim world over Israel’s war in Gaza, it is hard to see Prince Mohammed shifting his position. Andrew England

Will we have home robots?

Yes. In October, Palo Alto start-up 1X began taking pre-orders for Neo, its slender, soft-knit unitard-clad humanoid robot. For $20,000 customers were told to expect delivery in 2026. Embodied AI is moving robotic butlers from virtual environments to the real world.

Companies like Tesla, Figure AI and Unitree are competing to build self- directing models that will carry out chores. But recreating human dexterity is an expensive work in progress — even just to fold laundry. Reports show Neo is not yet fully autonomous. This is one for the wealthy early adopters. Elaine Moore

Will African growth outstrip Asian growth?

Yes, but it will be close. As China slows, average growth rates across Asia in 2026 could fall to 4.1 per cent, says the IMF. Africa, coming off an altogether lower base, is seen nudging up from 4.1 per cent.

Despite some terrible news — war in Sudan, spreading extremism in the Sahel and a spate of coups — Africa is benefiting from a weak dollar, strong gold prices and sounder fiscal policies. Half of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies next year are expected to be African. Bigger economies like Egypt and Nigeria are also growing after painful structural reforms. Even collectively, though, Africa’s 54 economies are still too small to shift the global needle. David Pilling

Will the gold price go above $5,000 an ounce?

Yes. Gold’s blistering rally is likely to continue, albeit at a more measured pace. Driving factors may include central bank buying, as well as investors who see gold as a hedge against looming fiscal deficits, geopolitical fracturing and the debasement of “fiat” currencies.

In a world where uncertainty is the new normal, and with cracks appearing in the dollar’s role as a reserve currency, bullion’s bull run has further to go. Leslie Hook

Will we have a robust, commercially viable quantum computer in operation?

No, but it won’t be much longer before we do. Several tech companies have already developed rudimentary quantum computers, currently used in parallel with classical computers to perform operations neither can do on their own. Rapid advances are being made in both hardware and software to exploit the spooky properties of subatomic physics.

Even if timelines are unknowable, governments say companies should start securing sensitive data in anticipation of a post-quantum world. Robust quantum computers will render most of today’s encryption methods obsolete. John Thornhill

Will Lula win a record fourth term as Brazilian president?

Yes. Barring a last-minute health problem, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is favourite to win next October’s election even at 80. A formidable campaigner, the leftwinger will benefit from a robust economy and from standing up to Trump’s blandishments.

Own goals by Brazil’s right are also helping him. Some conservatives argued for US sanctions to punish Brazil for trying former president Jair Bolsonaro on charges of plotting a coup, but the strategy backfired as Lula rallied the nation behind him. Rightwingers are squabbling too over whether Bolsonaro’s son Flávio should represent them now his father has been jailed, or a more moderate candidate. Michael Stott

Will an entirely AI-generated song top the charts?

No. A gritty AI warbler called Breaking Rust reached number one in an obscure US country chart this

year, a portent of the onward march of the machines. But they will falter at the Everest of the main US and UK singles charts.

The spin-off songs from Netflix’s film KPop Demon Hunters show that fictional acts can have big hits, but were propelled by storylines and characterisations that AI cannot match. Neither can it fabricate the personability vital to real stars such as Olivia Rodrigo, nor the clash of personalities in Kendrick Lamar’s chart-topping feud with Drake. Ludovic Hunter-Tilney

Will Elon Musk’s Tesla reverse its market share declines in the US, the EU and China?

No. Tesla remains under pressure in the US with federal tax credits for electric vehicles expiring and the president rolling back rules to reduce vehicle emissions. The outlook is less predictable in China and Europe. Despite launching a more affordable version of its flagship Model Y, much of what has led to Tesla’s share decline in 2025 will remain the same.

BYD and other Chinese rivals will launch yet more new models with attractive pricing. Musk is meanwhile more focused on investing in AI and deploying self-driving robotaxis than rebooting Tesla’s traditional automotive business. Kana Inagaki

Will a woman rank in the top 50 best-paid athletes?

No. Despite rapid recent growth, pay in women’s sport is still way below that of male athletes. Coco Gauff was 2025’s highest-paid female athlete, according to Sportico, with $31mn earnings. But that would not have put her in the most recent top 100 ranking, where the lowest-paid man made more than $37mn.

Breakout basketball star Caitlin Clark had total income of $16mn, but a salary of just $114,000. Only Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams have cracked the top 50 in recent years. Gauff has yet to garner enough big global endorsements or Grand Slam wins to hit those heights. Josh Noble

Tiebreaker: How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in 2026?