Blinken in Mideast to discuss Syrian transition

AQABA, Jordan — Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Jordan on Thursday as part of a Middle East trip to promote an “inclusive, Syrian-led” government transition in Damascus and meet with leaders of neighboring nations to try to get them on board, the State Department said.

“All of these conversations are looking to bring all the countries in the region together, as well as beyond the region, in a unified approach to supporting the Syrian people as they emerge from this dictatorship,” Blinken told reporters Thursday after meeting with Jordan’s king and foreign minister. Later Thursday, he also met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Blinken previously said the U.S. government would “recognize and fully support” the new Syrian government if the transition process is inclusive and transparent.

The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the assault that toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime and was formed as an offshoot of al-Qaeda, faces the challenges of consolidating control over a patchwork of rebel forces and demonstrating political inclusivity.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan also met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Thursday to discuss Gaza ceasefire negotiations, Netanyahu’s office said.

A former Egyptian official with knowledge of the discussions, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said Hamas gave Israel a list of the names of living hostages in Gaza, in a goodwill gesture meant to pave the way to a ceasefire deal. The official said the group was willing to abandon previous demands that Israeli forces withdraw completely from the Gaza Strip.

Here’s what else to know:

• Israel reiterated Thursday that it is expanding airstrikes in Syria and advancing forces across the border to protect Israeli security. France has called on Israel to withdraw its troops from the buffer zone separating the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syrian territory.
• The Israel Defense Forces said Thursday that its strikes in Syria have destroyed more than 90 percent of the country’s aerial defense systems. Earlier this week, Israel said it had destroyed most of Syria’s navy.
• The political affairs department of HTS said Thursday that it would “cooperate directly with the U.S. administration to complete the search for the American citizens who were disappeared by the former Assad regime.” It said the search for long-missing U.S. freelance journalist Austin Tice is “ongoing.”
• 1.1 million people, most of them women and children, have been displaced in Syria since Nov. 27, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, also known as OCHA.
• U.S.-backed Kurdish forces said early Wednesday that they agreed to withdraw from the northern Syrian city of Manbij following a U.S. mediation effort, after fighting Turkish-backed forces for control of the city. The Washington Post could not immediately verify the claims.⍐

Can AKD bring big time rice millers to book

 Can AKD bring big time rice millers to book

11 December 2024 12:10 am Daily Mirror LK

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his newly elected parliamentary team are being hit by a barrage of criticism more reminiscent of the firing of multi-barrel weapons which operated during the time of the LTTE-led war which lasted nearly 30 years. The political opposition has rounded on government for its inability to control major rice millers manipulating prices. 

In Parliament, charges of government’s failure to control the interplay between supply and demand of rice, have raised a cacophony of sound. Meanwhile ordinary citizens are literally pushed to the brink of starvation given the skyrocketing prices. 

All the past regimes too, have caved in to the politically powerful rice millers. It is said the group controls the purchase and distribution from paddy to the finished product -the grain of rice- which is the staple food of Lankan families. It must be mentioned however, their reach is limited to those areas of the country, South of the northern province.  

Thanks to the long-drawn-out war in the North and the East of the country, the rice cartel dons were unable to extend their reach into those areas. A different system existed there. After all, even during the war, the people of the North and the East were able to manage on their own agricultural production plus the limited government supplies which reached the population there. 

Outside areas in the North and the East, it is the big-time rice millers who control the marketing of paddy and rice. They also provide loans to small and tenant farmers. Many of these unfortunates are unable to provide collateral needed to avail themselves of government or bank loans.  

At harvest time, it is the agents of big-time millers, many of whom operate smaller mills who set prices -mostly well below market rates. Interest repayments on loans leave the primary producer -the farmer- with a pittance on which he is barely able to survive. 

The three to four large rice mill owners purchase stocks of rice from smaller millers at prices also set by them (large millers) and the grain is uploaded to their go-downs and thence to whole sale, retail and market chains at prices set by the self-same large rice millers. 

They have now become a law unto themselves. To make matters worse, the ‘Weather Gods’ too have not been kind to the new government. Since elections the country has been hit by adverse weather, which devastated crops, pauperized the agricultural community and led to steep increases in the selling price of rice. 

According to the president, the government has provided soft loans for bulk purchase of rice. But the benefit has not been passed on to the consumer. As mentioned earlier, government’s benevolence has not percolated to the primary producer either.  

Scurrilous musings charge government’s inability to act against the mafia, stems from the government having accepted campaign donations. This is a common practice in democracies the world over. But was not expected of the new leaders who campaigned on an anti-corruption platform at the recently concluded elections. 

If it is so, thereby hangs a tale. Perhaps believing quiet charm would solve the problem, the president appealed to rice millers to release stocks and ease shortages in the market. It did not work.  

And so it was, two days ago President AKD called for the rice market to be regulated. He brought in a system of price controls. Before the ink on his diktat had dried a hue and cry had started with numerous interests crying foul. 

Price controls in our country have seldom worked. Older Lankans remember the term of Ms. Sirimavo Bandaranaike in horror. In the not too distant past President Chandrika Kumaratunge attempted to use price control to bring down the cost of bread. That move only worsened the situation. 

But at a time when particular cartels control vital sections of the food chain, control supply and dictate prices it leaves both producers and consumers at the mercy of a few who thrive off the flesh and blood of the average citizen. 

Then it becomes necessary to level the field. This is the government’s duty. The government’s role is to ensure that no player can manipulate the market at the expense of the majority.⍐  

‘A lot of positive news’ after President’s visit to India: Deputy Foreign Minister

Sri Lanka to receive ‘a lot of positive news’ after President’s visit to India: Deputy Foreign Minister

By Sanath Nanayakkare The Island 13-12-2024

Foreign Affairs and Foreign Employment Deputy Minister Arun Hemachandra recently told Ada Derana TV that Sri Lanka would receive a lot of positive news after President Anura Kumara Disanayake’s visit to India.He made this comment during a talk show with TV anchor Mahieash Johnney in a zoom call.

Mahieash asked the deputy foreign minister several questions related to the President’s visit to India from December 15 to 17, which is set to take place following an invitation from the Indian government.

The following are some comments made by the deputy foreign minister during the programme.

Indian Deputy High Commissioner Dr. Satyanjal Pandey, 
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Employment Arun Hemachandra 

“As a country, we do believe in maintaining good bilateral relations. Sri Lanka is an island nation. Our country is situated in an important geographical location on the world map. So, as a country, we do need a very strong foreign relations and we should have a very strong diplomatic service as well. Based on that, what we believe is that the NPP government should have a very strong foreign policy and we are committed to having one. In the past, as a country, we did not have a similar thing because most of the rulers were making use of the foreign diplomatic service as well as the foreign policy which was supposed to be nation-oriented or country-oriented, but were not practiced in that way.”

“As the NPP-led government, we are committed to a very strong foreign policy. We have to understand one thing. India being a very close neighbour, India being a very strong neighbour and India being a country that helped Sri Lanka during the crisis time without any conditions, we have to maintain a very close relationship with India. And, we have to understand that our country should have a very strong, non-aligned foreign policy, so as a country, we need to understand that it is an art of balancing. We have to consider India’s national security which is their utmost concern. We should focus on that also because being a very strong country, they focus on that. But also, we have to have a very strong country oriented and people-oriented foreign policy, so the NPP government is committed to having such a policy, so there is nothing to worry about that.”

When asked about Sri Lanka’s wish to join BRICS as a means of economic development and about US president-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tax on BRICS’s exports into his country if they created a new currency to replace the US dollar, Hemachandra said said,” Our application to join BRICS has not been rejected. It is still under consideration. As a country, we have joined the new development bank – which is the banking body of BRICS, so the process is still on the move.

And about the statement made by the U.S. president-elect Donald Trump, we don’t know how practical it is for them to impose such tariff. But then again, we have to understand that BRICS was something inevitable because it was something which couldn’t be rejected , so there was a need for BRICS and that was one reason BRICS kept on growing. So, we have not opted out, we have not changed our decision on BRICS. The particular application is still on the move, and we are looking forward to positive updates from them.”

When asked whether new trade agreements, concessions etc. could emerge from the meetings President Anura Kumara Disanayake will be having during his Indian tour, the deputy minister replied,”

“The President’s first official overseas visit will be to India. We believe that we also should continue that tradition as India being a very close and strong neighbour. We believe that we should start from that point. We should understand that there are many pending agreements to be signed. There are still many agreements which are being discussed. I cannot comment on everything here, but then, we are discussing with India regarding many things that were discussed in the past.

So, it is a new administration. It is a new government. So, we should take decisions based on the people’s and the country’s benefit. So, there are many things that are being reviewed. And many things are being discussed. So, the country will have a lot of positive news after the President’s visit to India. We believe that we should maintain very strong diplomatic relations with India, and they are also committed to help us. This morning also I met the Deputy High Commissioner of India who made a courtesy call at my office. We discussed many things. But we have to mention that the decisions will be purely based on the country’s benefit and the people’s mandate,” the deputy foreign minister said.

During his visit, President Dissanayake is expected to meet Indian President Droupadi Murmu, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other senior officials. Discussions are expected to focus on strengthening ties and exploring cooperation across multiple sectors.⍐

Donald Trump is TIME’s 2024 ­Person of the Year.

For 97 years, the editors of TIME have been picking the Person of the Year: the individual who, for better or for worse, did the most to shape the world and the headlines over the past 12 months.

 By Sam Jacobs

December 12, 2024 7:40 AM EST

Three days before Thanksgiving, the former and future President of the United States is sitting in the sun-filled dining room of his Florida home and private club. In the lavish reception area, more than a dozen people have been waiting for nearly two hours for Donald Trump to emerge. His picks for ­National Security Adviser, special envoy to the Middle East, Vice President, and chief of staff huddle nearby. All afternoon, Trump pipes music throughout the 1927 oceanfront estate from a 2,000-song playlist he curates: Sinéad O’Connor’s “Nothing Compares 2 U,” ABBA’s “The Winner Takes It All,” James Brown’s “It’s a Man’s Man’s Man’s World.”

For 97 years, the editors of TIME have been picking the Person of the Year: the individual who, for better or for worse, did the most to shape the world and the headlines over the past 12 months. In many years, that choice is a difficult one. In 2024, it was not.

Since he began running for President in 2015, perhaps no single individual has played a larger role in changing the course of politics and history than Trump. He shocked many by winning the White House in 2016, then led the U.S. through a chaotic term that included the first year of a pandemic as well as a period of nationwide protest, and that ended with his losing the election by 7 million votes and provoking the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. The smart money wagered that we had witnessed the end of Trump.

Photograph by Platon for TIME

If that moment marked Trump’s nadir, today we are witnessing his apotheosis. On the cusp of his second presidency, all of us—from his most fanatical supporters to his most fervent critics—are living in the Age of Trump. He dispatched his Republican rivals in near record time. For weeks, he campaigned largely from the New York ­courtroom where he would be convicted on 34 felony counts. His sole debate with President Joe Biden in June led to his opponent’s eventual exit from the race. Sixteen days later, he survived an assassination attempt at a campaign rally. In the sprint that followed, he outlasted Vice President Kamala Harris, sweeping all seven swing states and emerging from the election at the height of his popularity. “Look what happened,” Trump told his supporters in his election-­night victory speech. “Isn’t this crazy?” He almost couldn’t believe it himself.

Trump has remade American politics in the process. He won by enlarging his base, seizing the frustration over rising prices and benefiting from a global turn against incumbents. With those tailwinds, exit polls suggest that he won the largest percentage of Black Americans for a Republican since Gerald Ford and the most Latino voters of any GOP nominee since George W. Bush. ­Suburban women, whose anger over restrictions to reproductive rights was thought to be a ­bulwark for the Democrats, moved not away but toward him. He became the first Republican in 20 years to win more votes than the Democrat, with 9 of 10 American counties increasing their support for Trump from 2020.

Now we watch as members of Congress, international institutions, and global leaders once again align themselves with his whims. The carousel of Trumpworld characters spins anew. This time, we think we know what to expect. Supporters cheer even his promises to take revenge on his enemies and dismantle the government. In a matter of weeks, Trump will be returning to the Oval Office with his intentions clear: tariff imports, deport millions, and threaten the press. Put RFK Jr. in charge of vaccines. Chance war with Iran. “Anything can happen,” he told us.

Sitting with TIME three weeks after the election, Trump was more subdued than when we visited him at Mar-a-Lago in March. He is happiest to be in a fight, and now that he has won, he sounded almost wistful, recognizing that he had run for office for the final time. “It’s sad in a way. It will never ­happen again,” Trump told us. And while he is thinking about how that chapter has ended, for Americans and for the world, it is also the beginning of a new one. Trump is once again at the center of the world, and in as strong a position as he has ever been.

Over time, we’ve seen the Person of the Year franchise shift: from Man of the Year to its current designation; from the period between the world wars, defined by leaders like Mohandas Gandhi and Wallis ­Simpson, to the first quarter of the 21st century, an era marked by the tremendous changes ushered in by a technological revolution. ­Although the ­American presidency has evolved across these eras, its influence has not diminished. Today, we are witnessing a resurgence of populism, a widening mistrust in the institutions that defined the last century, and an eroding faith that liberal values will lead to better lives for most people. Trump is both agent and beneficiary of it all.

For marshaling a comeback of historic proportions, for driving a once-in-a-­generation political realignment, for reshaping the American presidency and altering America’s role in the world, Donald Trump is TIME’s 2024 ­Person of the Year.⍐

'We are not ready for what's to come': NATO

 

'We are not ready for what's to come': NATO chief warns Russia 'is preparing for war' with the West

12 December 2024, LBC

By Henry Moore

The West is not ready for the threats it will face from Russia and its allies in the coming years, the head of NATO has warned.

Calling on members of the military alliance to shift into a wartime mindset, Mark Rutte, the secretary general of the organisation, said spending must increase far above the current rate of 2% of GDP.

Mr Rutte warned that NATO is “not ready” for what is to come as he said the current security situation was the "worst in my lifetime".

These comments come as Russia continues its brutal invasion of Ukraine, Israel’s wars in the Middle East continue to escalate and China continues to grow as an economic and military power.

Speaking in Brussels, Mr Rutte: "Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation, with Ukraine and with us.

"We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years," the NATO secretary general said.

He continued: "It is time to shift to a wartime mindset, and turbocharge our defence production and defence spending."

He demanded leaders "stop creating barriers between each other and between industries, banks and pension funds".

And to defence companies, he added: "There is money on the table, and it will only increase. So dare to innovate and take risks."

Since Russia launched its invasion in 2022, NATO members agreed that 2% would be the bare minimum spending, but most nations have failed to substantially boost defence investment in the years since.

Sir Keir Starmer has pledged Labour will soon “set out a plan” to boost spending to around 2.5%, but some military experts have said even this won’t be enough.

Last month, Sir Keir was warned the British army would only last six months if war broke out with Russia.

Al Carns, the veterans minister, who is also a reservist, issued the warning as he spoke of the importance of rebuilding the UK's reserve forces.

During a speech at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, Mr Carns said: "In a war of scale - not a limited intervention, but one similar to Ukraine - our army for example on the current casualty rates would be expended - as part of a broader multinational coalition - in six months to a year.”

Fears of a Russian offensive outside of Ukraine come amid concerns incoming US president Donald Trump is not as committed to NATO as his predecessors.

Mr Trump has pledged to pull out of the alliance if other member states fail to pay their fair share.

Nato chief says ‘time to shift to wartime mindset’ amid warning over Putin

Mark Rutte warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants a long-term confrontation with Europe after Ukraine.

Nato secretary general Mark Rutte has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to “wipe Ukraine off the map” and could come after other parts of Europe next, as he urged Europeans to press their governments to ramp up defence spending.

“It is time to shift to a wartime mindset,” Mr Rutte told security experts and analysts at the Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels.

He said people should prepare themselves for the prospect that Russia might try to use “swarms of drones” in Europe as it has to deadly effect in Ukraine.

Mr Putin “is trying to crush our freedom and way of life”, Mr Rutte said

The former Dutch prime minister listed Russia’s attacks on Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and the all-out invasion launched almost three years ago.

“How many more wake-up calls do we need? We should be profoundly concerned. I know I am,” he said. “Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation. With Ukraine, and with us.”

Mr Rutte’s inaugural speech came just over two months after he took office as Nato’s top civilian official. He has since toured the capitals of the 32 allies, including a visit to President-elect Donald Trump in the United States, Nato’s most powerful ally.

Nato has been a staunch backer of Ukraine and has helped most of its members funnel weapons, ammunition and other support into the country. But Mr Trump’s return, and pledge to end the war quickly, has fuelled concerns that an unfavourable truce might be forced on Ukraine.

Mr Trump routinely complains that US allies in Nato are not spending enough on defence. Mr Rutte said Russia’s military spending is likely to amount to 7% to 8% of its GDP next year – far more than any Nato ally – while its defence industry churns out tanks, armoured vehicles and ammunition.

Mr Putin also has the support of allies such as China, Iran and North Korea.

Mr Rutte noted that defence spending has risen sharply in Europe, with 23 allies expected to reach Nato’s target of putting 2% of GDP into their military budgets. But he added: “I can tell you, we are going to need a lot more than 2%.”

Mr Rutte listed a series of recent “hostile actions” by Russia against Nato allies, including cyber attacks, assassinations, an explosion at a Czech ammunition depot, the jamming of radars in the Baltic region to disrupt air traffic, and the “weaponisation” of migrants to destabilise Europe.

“These attacks are not just isolated incidents. They are the result of a co-ordinated campaign to destabilise our societies and discourage us from supporting Ukraine,” he said. “They circumvent our deterrence and bring the front line to our front doors.”

Beyond increased defence spending in Europe, Mr Rutte noted that Nato now has tens of thousands of troops on high readiness should they been needed to defend allied territory.

“With all this, our deterrence is good – for now. But it’s tomorrow I’m worried about,” he said, and warned that “we are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years. Danger is moving towards us at full speed.”

“What is happening in Ukraine could happen here too, and regardless of the outcome of this war, we will not be safe in the future unless we are prepared to deal with danger,” Mr Rutte added.

Mr Rutte appealed to governments to provide the defence industry with “the big orders and long-term contracts they need to rapidly produce more and better capabilities”. He urged industry to boost production for defences against drones and other new war tactics.

He added that “freedom does not come for free” to the estimated one billion people living in the Euro-Atlantic area.

“If we don’t spend more together now to prevent war, we will pay a much, much, much higher price later to fight it. Not billions, but trillions of euros. That’s if we come out on top, and that’s if we win,” he said.

By Press Association

A world of debt- UNCTAD Report 2024

A world

of debt

Report 2024

A growing burden to

global prosperity

Why it matters?

Public debt can be vital for development. Governments use it to finance their expenditures, to protect and invest in their people, and to pave their way to a better future. However, it can also be a heavy burden, when public debt grows too much or too fast. 

This is what is happening today across the developing world. 

Global public debt has reached a record high of US$ 97 trillion in 2023.Although public debt in developing countries reached less than one third of the total – US$ 29 trillion – since 2010 it has grown twice as fast as in developed economies.

There is a stark contrast among developing regions. Asia and Oceania hold 27 % of global public debt, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (5%), and Africa (2%). The burden of this debt varies significantly, with countries' ability to repay it exacerbated by inequality embedded in the international financial architecture.

Developing countries are now facing a growing and high cost of external debt. Debt service on external public debt reached US$ 365 billion in 2022, equivalent to 6.3% of export revenues. For comparison, the 1953 London Agreement on Germany’s war debt limited the amount of export revenues that could be spent on external debt servicing (public and private) to 5% to avoid undermining the recovery.

This dynamic is largely a result of high borrowing costs which increase the resources needed to pay creditors, making it difficult for developing countries to finance investments. Developing regions borrow at rates that are 2 to 4 times higher than those of the United States and 6 to 12 times higher than those of Germany.

Moreover, developing countries experienced a net resource outflow when they could least afford it. In 2022, developing countries paid US$ 49 billion more to their external creditors than they received in fresh disbursements, resulting in a negative net resource transfer.

The impact of these trends on development is a major concern, as people pay the price.

The increase in interest rates by central banks worldwide since 2022 is having a direct impact on public budgets. Developing countries’ net interest payments on public debt reached US$ 847 billion in 2023, a 26% increase compared to 2021. In the same vein, in 2023 a record 54 developing countries, equivalent to 38% of the total, allocated 10% or more of government revenues to interest payments.

Developing countries’ interest payments are not only growing fast, but they are outpacing growth in critical public expenditures such as health and education. As a consequence, interest payments are constraining spending across developing countries. For example, during the initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic, Africa and Asia and Oceania (excluding China) spent more on interest payments than on health.

Overall, a total of 3.3 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on either education or health. Moreover, in emerging and developing countries interest payments outweigh climate investments, thus slowing down efforts towards climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Developing countries must not be forced to choose between servicing their debt or serving their people.

______________________________________________

Developing countries must not be forced to choose between servicing their debt or serving their people. Instead, the international financial architecture must evolve to ensure a prosperous future for both people and the planet. 

To address these challenges and achieve sustainable development, the United Nations outlines a clear way forward in the SDG Stimulus package and the Summit of the Future’s policy brief on the Reforms to the International Financial Architecture. UNCTAD _____________________________________________

World Population 

⃝•  According to UN estimates, the world population passed the 8 billion mark on 15 November (2023). Over the past 25 years, the number of people on the planet has increased by one third, or 2.1 billion. Humanity is expected to grow by another fifth to just under 10 billion around 2050.

In the last 25 years, almost all the growth happened in developing economies, mainly in Asia and Oceania (1.2 billion more people) and Africa (an additional 700 million individuals). This trend is expected to continue, with half of the projected increase in world population between now and 2050 expected to occur in a few larger countries in Africa and Asia.

As the population has grown, the share of people living in developing countries has increased from 66% in 1950 to 83% now and should reach 86% by 2050. This underlines the importance of tackling the challenges that affect these nations, such as hunger, access to clean water and sanitation and health services, and getting people connected to affordable sources of sustainable electricity and the Internet.  

An estimated 828 million people go to bed hungry every night, the vast majority in developing countries. These countries, especially in Africa, are bearing the heaviest brunt of socioeconomic inequalities and poor living conditions, according to UNCTAD’s Inclusive Growth Index. In more than three fourths of African countries, half of the population has no access to clean and safely managed water. And in some developing nations, just one in 100 people have a broadband Internet connection. 

Faster population growth in developing countries makes addressing the climate emergency all the more urgent. Developing countries already struggle to find ways to meet increasing food and energy needs and will need support to meet the future demands of a growing population without excessive use of natural resources, pollution and waste generation. 

Countries with high economic performance generate twice the amount of waste per capita compared to developing countries. This highlights the need for both developed and developing countries to “decouple” prosperity from CO2 emissions while ensuring a just low-carbon transition. Developed countries should redouble their efforts towards a low-emissions future, while providing developing countries with the technologies, skills and financial support necessary to move their economies towards industries and sectors that are less polluting. This must be a priority at COP27 climate summit.

While fast population growth in developing countries presents many challenges, it can also be a source of new economic opportunities – for instance in Africa where the size of the working age population is increasing relative to younger and older generations. But if the world is unable to break the link between pollution and affluence, the challenges will likely overshadow the opportunities for the entire planet.

Syrian rebels had help from Ukraine in humiliating Russia

Eager to bloody Putin’s nose, Kyiv supplied drones for the offensive that toppled Assad

A group of militants celebrate the fall of the Assad regime in central Damascus on Monday.

(Lorenzo Tugnoli for The Washington Post) 

Opinion  By David Ignatius  

December 10, 2024

The Syrian rebels who swept to power in Damascus last weekend received drones and other support from Ukrainian intelligence operatives who sought to undermine Russia and its Syrian allies, according to sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities abroad.

Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading rebel group based there, the knowledgeable sources said.

The aid from Kyiv played only a modest role in overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western intelligence sources believe. But it was notable as part of a broader Ukrainian effort to strike covertly at Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and inside Russia itself.

Ukraine’s covert assistance program in Syria has been an open secret, though senior Biden administration officials said repeatedly in answer to my questions that they weren’t aware of it. Ukraine’s motivation is obvious: Facing a Russian onslaught inside their country, Ukrainian intelligence has looked for other fronts where it can bloody Russia’s nose and undermine its clients.

The Ukrainians have advertised their intentions. The Kyiv Post in a June 3 article quoted a source in the Ukrainian military intelligence service, known as the GUR, who told the newspaper that “since the beginning of the year, the [Syrian] rebels, supported by Ukrainian operatives, have inflicted numerous strikes on Russian military facilities represented in the region.”

That story, posted online, included a link to video footage that showed attacks on a stone-ribbed bunker, a white van and other targets that it said had been struck by Ukrainian-supported rebels inside Syria. The paper said that the Syria operation was conducted by a special unit known as “Khimik” within the GUR, “in collaboration with the Syrian opposition.”

Russian officials have been complaining for months about the Ukrainian paramilitary effort in Syria. Alexander Lavrentyev, Russia’s special representative for Syria, said in a November interview with TASS, “We do indeed have information that Ukrainian specialists from the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine are on the territory of Idlib.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had made a similar claim in September about “Ukrainian intelligence emissaries” in Idlib. He claimed they were conducting “dirty operations,” according to the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan, which asserted that Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the GUR, had been in touch personally with HTS.

Before the HTS offensive toppled Assad, Russian officials had asserted that Ukraine’s link with the rebel group was an attempt to recruit Syrian fighters for its war against the Kremlin. A September report in an online site called the Cradle alleged that Ukraine had offered 75 unmanned aerial vehicles in a “drones-for-fighters” deal with HTS. But there isn’t any independent evidence to back this Russian claim.

Russia clearly was surprised by HTS’s rapid advance on Damascus — but interestingly, Russian sources have tried to minimize the Ukrainian role. A Dec. 2 article in Middle East Eye quoted a Russian Telegram account, said to reflect the views of the Russian military, that discounted Kyiv’s assistance: “Firstly, GUR members did visit Idlib, but they stayed there for only a short time” — not enough to train Syrians to operate unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) from scratch. “Secondly,” the message continued, “HTS has long had its own UAV program.”

The Syria operation isn’t the only instance of Ukrainian military intelligence operating abroad to harass Russian operatives. The BBC reported in August that Ukraine had helped rebels in northern Mali ambush Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group. The July 27 attack killed 84 Wagner operatives and 47 Malians, the BBC said.

Andriy Yusov, a GUR spokesman, touted the Mali operation several days later, saying that the Malian rebels “received necessary information, and not just information, which enabled a successful military operation against Russian war criminals,” according to the BBC. After the attack, Mali severed its diplomatic relations with Ukraine.

Budanov pledged in April 2023 that Ukraine would pursue Russians guilty of war crimes “in any part of the world,” according to a news report. Budanov’s aggressive intelligence operations have sometimes worried the Biden administration, U.S. officials have told me.

I asked Budanov in an interview at his headquarters in Kyiv last April about the GUR’s reported operations against the Wagner militia in Africa. “We conduct such operations aimed at reducing Russian military potential, anywhere where it’s possible,” he answered. “Why should Africa be an exception?”

Like Ukraine’s Africa forays and its assault on the Kursk region inside Russia, the covert operation in Syria reflects an attempt to widen the battlefield — and hurt the Russians in areas where they’re unprepared. Ukraine’s aid wasn’t “the drone that broke that camel’s back,” so to speak. But it helped, in at least a small way, to bring down Russia’s most important client in the Middle East.

And like Israel in its failure to anticipate Hamas’s surge across the Gaza fence on Oct. 7, 2023, Russia saw the Ukrainian-backed rebels coming, but couldn’t mobilize to stop the attack and prevent the devastating consequences.⍐