Israel has waged one of this century’s most destructive wars in Gaza

The damage in Gaza has outpaced other recent conflicts, evidence shows. Israel has dropped some of the largest bombs commonly used today near hospitals.

Data from the United Nations shows damage and destruction around al-Rantisi Hospital in northern Gaza.
(MAXAR/The Washington Post) Double click on image to enlarge.

By Evan Hill, Imogen Piper, Meg Kelly and Jarrett Ley Dec. 23 The Washington Post

The Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip has been unlike any other in the 21st century.

In response to the unprecedented assault by Hamas on Oct. 7, Israeli airstrikes and a ground invasion that began 20 days later have destroyed large swaths of the besieged territory, killed at least 20,057 people and displaced a vast majority of the population.

The most ferocious attacks have come from the air, flattening entire city blocks and cratering the landscape.

The Washington Post analyzed satellite imagery, airstrike data and U.N. damage assessments, and interviewed more than 20 aid workers, health-care providers, and experts in munitions and aerial warfare. The evidence shows that Israel has carried out its war in Gaza at a pace and level of devastation that likely exceeds any recent conflict, destroying more buildings, in far less time, than were destroyed during the Syrian regime’s battle for Aleppo from 2013 to 2016 and the U.S.-led campaign to defeat the Islamic State in Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria, in 2017.

The Post also found that the Israeli military has conducted repeated and widespread airstrikes in proximity to hospitals, which are supposed to receive special protection under the laws of war. Satellite imagery reviewed by Post reporters revealed dozens of apparent craters near 17 of the 28 hospitals in northern Gaza, where the bombing and fighting were most intense during the first two months of war, including 10 craters that suggested the use of bombs weighing 2,000 pounds, the largest in regular use.

“There’s no safe space. Period,” said Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, who visited Gaza on Dec. 4. “I haven’t passed one street where I didn’t see destruction of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals.”

How we calculated this damage comparison

To assess the devastation in Gaza, The Post used data from the U.N. Satellite Center, or UNOSAT, which analyzes satellite imagery from conflict zones to determine how many structures, most of them buildings, have been damaged and destroyed.

To compare with Gaza, The Post examined UNOSAT damage data from the Russian and Syrian government campaign against rebels in Aleppo from 2013 to 2016, and from the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State, which heavily bombed and shelled the cities of Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria, in 2017. UNOSAT has not collected the same kind of data on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite the availability of other damage assessment methodologies, The Post relied on UNOSAT data because it maintained a consistent methodology over years across multiple conflict zones.

The war has wounded more than 53,320 people, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. More than 7,700 Palestinian children have been killed, and women and children make up around 70 percent of the dead, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which also says that 1.9 million people have been displaced, equivalent to 85 percent of the population. The vast majority of Gazan civilians fleeing the invasion are not allowed by Israel and Egypt to leave.

“The scale of Palestinian civilian deaths in such a short period of time appears to be the highest such civilian casualty rate in the 21st century,” said Michael Lynk, who served as the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories from 2016 to 2022.

In a reply to questions from The Post, the Israel Defense Forces sent a statement saying: “In response to Hamas’ barbaric attacks, the IDF is operating to dismantle Hamas military and administrative capabilities. In stark contrast to Hamas’ intentional attacks on Israeli men, women and children, the IDF follows international law and takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm.”

This is the Gaza Strip. Each dot represents a damaged or destroyed structure, the vast majority of which are buildings. From the start of the war on Oct. 7 to Nov. 26, the date of the most recent data available, 37,379 structures were damaged.

Soon after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, Israeli military leaders signaled their intent to retaliate with widespread devastation.

On Oct. 10, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops he had “released all the restraints” and that “Gaza will never return to what it was.” The same day, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said that “while balancing accuracy with the scope of damage, right now we’re focused on what causes maximum damage.”

• This is Aleppo, more than one and a half times the area  of northern Gaza. Russia and the government of Bashar al-Assad waged a brutal, multiyear battle to defeat and eventually besiege rebel groups there.

• From 2013 to 2016, the period covered by U.N. data, 40 percent of Aleppo’s structures were damaged. In northern Gaza, that figure reached 32 percent by Nov. 26 — From 2013 to 2016, the period covered by U.N. data, 40 percent of Aleppo’s structures were damaged. In northern Gaza, that figure reached 32 percent by Nov. 26 — seven weeks into conflict.

• Nearly twice as many structures were destroyed in northern Gaza in seven weeks as the 4,773 destroyed in Aleppo over three years.

• This is Mosul, roughly Aleppo’s size and also more than one and a half times the area of northern Gaza. Iraqi troops, allied militias and U.S. air forces launched an offensive to retake the city from the Islamic State in late 2016.

• Around one and a half times as many structures were damaged in northern Gaza in seven weeks as were damaged across Mosul during the nine-month battle.

• Nearly twice as many structures were destroyed in northern Gaza as were destroyed in Mosul over those same periods. 

• More than three times as many structures were destroyed in northern Gaza as were destroyed in Raqqa over those same periods.

In a little over two months, Israeli air forces fired more than 29,000 air-to-ground munitions, 40 to 45 percent of which were unguided, according to a recent assessment from the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The bombing rate has been about two and a half times as high as the peak of the U.S.-led coalition’s effort to defeat the Islamic State, which at its height fired 5,075 air-to-ground munitions across both Iraq and Syria in one month, according to data from the research and advocacy group Airwars.

“There’s no safe space. Period.”

— Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross

One hallmark of the 21st century’s most indiscriminate air campaigns, as in Syria and Ukraine, has been the bombing of hospitals, which cannot be attacked under the laws of war unless they are actively being used to “commit acts harmful to the enemy.”

The Israeli military made no secret of its view that Gaza’s hospitals were military targets.

“Hamas systematically exploits hospitals as a key part of its war machine,” Hagari, the military spokesman, said on Nov. 5. “We will not accept Hamas’s cynical use of hospitals to hide their terror infrastructure.”

By Dec. 14, Israeli bombardment and fighting had forced the closure of more than two thirds of the 28 hospitals identified by The Post in northern Gaza.

As Israel’s military campaign went on, satellite imagery reviewed by The Post showed how heavy strikes around Gaza’s hospitals destroyed entire neighborhoods, wrecked infrastructure and displaced civilians, often making it impossible for hospitals to function.

To assess destruction around hospitals, The Post analyzed U.N. Satellite Center data in areas within 180 meters — the distance at which the smallest commonly used bombs, weighing 250 pounds, can cause enough damage to make a building uninhabitable, and the largest, weighing 2,000 pounds, can damage a structure beyond repair, according to a report by Armament Research Services commissioned by the International Committee of the Red Cross.

The data showed that Israel’s bombardment and other fighting had damaged structures within 180 meters of all of northern Gaza’s 28 hospitals.

Across northern Gaza, visual evidence and other accounts showed how Israeli forces shot at, bombed, besieged and raided hospitals.

Turkish-Palestinian Friendship Hospital, Gaza’s only cancer treatment center, shut down on Nov. 1 after nearby airstrikes. At least four cancer patients died afterward, according to the health ministry. Al-Rantisi Hospital, the only hospital with a pediatric cancer ward, evacuated on Nov. 10 along with three nearby hospitals after being struck on Nov. 5 and surrounded by Israeli troops days later. Four premature babies left behind on breathing machines at one of the hospitals would later be found dead.

Video shot by a journalist in the parking lot of al-Awda Hospital showed nearby strikes filling the air with dust and smoke and raining debris down on ambulances.

 Video not available - enb

Debris falls and fire explodes after an airstrike hits near Al-Awda Hospital in North Gaza, video posted to Telegram on Nov. 9 shows. (Feras al-Ajrami/Instagram)

Indonesian Hospital evacuated on Nov. 22, three days after artillery fire struck the hospital and killed 12 people. Israeli raids on Kamal Adwan Hospital over several days in mid-December resulted in the hospital’s “effective destruction” and the death of at least eight patients, World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted on Dec. 17.

In Gaza City, Israeli strikes destroyed much of the neighborhood surrounding al-Quds Hospital, operated by the Palestine Red Crescent Society. Israeli forces pushing toward the center of the city fought with Hamas in the vicinity, and videos posted by the PRCS showed the impact of heavy nearby strikes. On Nov. 12, the hospital ceased operating.

“What we have been witnessing is a campaign that was planned, it was a plan, definitely, to close down all the hospitals in the north,” said Léo Cans, head of mission for Palestine with Doctors Without Borders.

There have been 239 attacks on health-care workers, vehicles and facilities in Gaza that have killed 570 people since the war started, the WHO said on Dec. 13.

The IDF has published videos and images that show weapons and other military items, which it said were found in multiple hospitals. Underneath al-Shifa Hospital, Israeli troops excavated a tunnel with multiple empty rooms, alleging that they had been used by Hamas. The military said Hamas fighters there and elsewhere had fled before Israeli troops arrived and taken materiel with them. None of the evidence was possible to verify independently, because Israel does not allow journalists to enter Gaza except on strictly guided tours.

“What we have been witnessing is a campaign that was planned.”

— Léo Cans, head of mission for Palestine with Doctors Without Borders

“Only the current misuse of the hospital deprives it of its protection, but if that misuse ends, that protection is restored,” said Adil Haque, an international law expert and Rutgers University professor. If there were a tunnel or underground structure beneath the hospital, and troops weren’t sure what was inside them, any doubts should “caution in favor of restraint,” he added.

The satellite imagery reviewed by The Post revealed other evidence of how hospitals had come under attack: large craters close to hospitals, many of them bearing the telltale characteristics of large, airdropped bombs.

The Post reviewed nearly 100 satellite images taken between Oct. 8 and Dec. 10 and found about three dozen apparent craters within 180 meters of 17 of the 28 hospitals in northern Gaza. At The Post’s request, five satellite imagery analysts reviewed images of each crater large enough to suggest the use of a bomb weighing 2,000 pounds or more. While The Post’s findings represent a conservative undercount of the actual number of bombs dropped near Gaza’s hospitals, the imagery shows that hardly a hospital in the north has been left untouched.

• The large craters were seen near eight hospitals, more than a quarter of all the hospitals in northern Gaza. Bombs in larger weight classes have larger blast radiuses and are more likely to inflict serious damage that could put even well-built structures like hospitals permanently out of service.

• Ten large craters identified by The Post near hospitals suggested the use of bombs weighing 2,000 pounds, the largest in regular use.

• At these two hospitals, for example, The Post identified large craters suggesting the use of 2,000-pound bombs within 90 meters, the distance at which a bomb of that size could completely destroy buildings within the blast radius.

• At al-Awda Hospital, northern Gaza’s main maternity center, a crater in the road about 90 meters from the hospital grounds suggested the use of a 2,000-pound bomb in November. 

• On Nov. 21, a strike on the hospital itself killed three doctors, Doctors Without Borders said.

• At al-Karama Hospital, north of Gaza City, two craters that appeared in Oct. 15 satellite imagery suggested the use of 2,000-pound bombs.

• The hospital was within the 90-meter blast radiuses of both munitions.

• It was forced to close on Oct. 17.

Officials at humanitarian and health-care organizations with lengthy experience in major conflict zones said Israel’s war in Gaza was the most devastating they had seen.

Tom Potokar, a chief surgeon with the International Committee of the Red Cross working in Gaza for the 14th time, said explosive injuries were responsible for all the wounds he and his colleagues at European Hospital in southern Gaza had been treating. Many patients had necrotic wounds requiring amputation due to the lack of supplies and equipment at battered and besieged hospitals in the north.

“For me, personally, this is without a doubt the worst I’ve seen,” said Potokar, who has worked during conflicts in South Sudan, Yemen, Syria, Somalia and Ukraine.

Zaher Sahloul, the president of MedGlobal and a doctor who worked in Aleppo during the battle for the city, said he believed that “what’s happening right now in Gaza is beyond any disaster that I’ve witnessed at least in the last 15 years or so.”

Sahloul estimated it will take decades to rebuild the health-care infrastructure destroyed in Gaza and the knowledge and expertise of the scores of doctors and other health-care workers who have been killed.

Preliminary data provided to The Post by Airwars suggested that strikes in Gaza were killing civilians at twice the rate of the U.S.-led campaign in Raqqa. Emily Tripp, the director of Airwars, said that the data they provided The Post represented “just a fraction” of the strikes they were currently researching in Gaza, which averaged about 200 strikes per week. In Airwars’s 10 years of work, Tripp said, the group had never documented more than about 250 civilian casualty strikes per month in any conflict.

“Make no mistake — U.S. operations in Iraq and Syria, especially in densely populated cities like Mosul and Raqqa, caused devastating civilian harm and destruction,” said Annie Shiel, the U.S. advocacy director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict. “But what we are seeing in Gaza, the level of death and destruction in this relatively short period of time, is absolutely staggering in comparison. Nowhere is safe for civilians.”

“For me, personally, this is without a doubt the worst I’ve seen.”

— Tom Potokar, a chief surgeon with the International Committee of the Red Cross

Pnina Sharvit Baruch, a former high-ranking military lawyer who was responsible for advising Israeli commanders, said that Israel is currently facing “the biggest threat to its existence” from enemies determined to destroy it. Hamas made Gaza a “fortified military area” and operates from within civilian structures, she said, adding that “Hamas’s strategy of using civilians as shields means that attacking its military capabilities leads to unfortunate yet inevitable civilian casualties.” When Israeli commanders weigh civilian harm against military advantage when deciding whether to strike, she said, the “level of threat posed by Hamas [to Israel] is a legitimate component of evaluating the military advantage.”

Several humanitarian workers interviewed by The Post noted that Israel’s campaign in Gaza, and its destruction of hospitals and homes, will likely create additional suffering, such as hunger, lack of shelter and the spread of communicable diseases, that could eventually kill more people than the bombs and fighting.

Sahloul said he believed the only explanation for so many attacks on civilian sites, which should have been protected by the laws of war, was that such attacks were intentional.

“People in Syria told me they can tolerate bombs and missiles, but if there’s no doctors in town and no hospitals, they usually leave,” he said. “So I would have to assume that if it is intentional, the goal is to force the population to leave. And when they leave, they don’t come back.”

Methodology

The quality of satellite imagery, irregular coverage and even the angle of a satellite’s camera can all affect the ability to identify clear craters. In some cases, craters could be located but not conclusively attributed to a specific munition or payload size. In other cases, damage from the air campaign was clear, but craters were not visible.

The Post relied on a conservative assessment of what is and is not a crater and asked multiple experts to review any crater found in within 180 meters of a hospital in northern Gaza that had diameter of at least 40 feet, or 12.1 meters. Any crater with a diameter greater than 11.7 meters found in light soil like Gaza’s, experts said, suggests a bomb weighing 2,000 pounds or more could have been used. To account for inconsistencies in measurements, The Post relied on the slightly larger, 40-foot diameter.

The Post focused its analysis on this size because a 2,000-pound bomb dropped 180 meters away could damage a building beyond repair. At 90 meters, that same munition could destroy a building. Only craters that experts agreed on with high confidence were included in this report.

Experts cautioned The Post against ascribing particular damage to particular craters, as the amount of damage caused by a bomb can vary widely, especially in a dense urban environment. Damage depends on nearby structures, building materials, the soil, whether a bomb has been set to explode above or below ground, and other factors. Experts also noted that even the largest munitions can be employed to ensure that nearby civilian infrastructure is not damaged or is minimally affected when they explode. But even then, large munitions have inherent characteristics that can only be mitigated to a certain degree, making collateral-damage assessments done before the munition is used key to avoiding civilian harm, they said.

About this story

Louisa Loveluck in London, Claire Parker in Cairo, Jonathan Baran in San Francisco, and Cate Brown and John Hudson in Washington contributed to this report.

Design and development by Junne Alcantara and Irfan Uraizee.

⍐  © The Washington Post (ENB Subscription Article) Re production Suba

பாலஸ்தீனம் படிப்பதற்கு பத்து ஆங்கில நூல்கள்

Palestine: 

Ten essential reads 

The massive upsurge in protests and activity against Israel’s devastating assault on Gaza has widened the audience interested in understanding the oppression of the Palestinians. Alex Snowdon recommends a selection of books for anyone wanting to deepen their understanding

1. Ten Myths About Israel, Ilan Pappe (Verso, 2017) is one of the best general introductions to the history and politics of Palestine and Israel. It is eloquent, concise, factually rigorous and infused with deep empathy for the Palestinians.

Each chapter takes a myth promoted by apologists for Israeli apartheid – and completely dismantles it. Left-wing Israeli historian Pappe does this by drawing on his vast historical knowledge to concisely explain the truth on each topic, from the pre-history of Israel – such as the Zionist movement and the role of British colonialism – to the present day. It concludes with a succinct case for a one-state solution rooted in justice, freedom and equality for all. 

2. Married to Another Man: Israel’s Dilemma in Palestine, Ghada Karmi (Pluto, 2007) takes its title from an old story. After the first Zionist Congress in 1897, two rabbis visited Palestine to consider its suitability for a future Jewish national home. They reported back: ‘The bride is beautiful, but she is married to another man’. This is the core paradox in the origins of Israel as a settler-colonial state. Zionism proposed a ‘land without people for a people without land’ but the land was in fact already inhabited by a substantial Palestinian population.

The book returns to the pre-history and origins of Israel to make sense of the terrible history of dispossession, violence and exile endured by the Palestinians. But she also has chapters covering the major developments since 1948, including the relationship between Israel and imperialism (one excellent chapter is called ‘Why does the West support Israel?’)

3. The Balfour Declaration: Empire, the Mandate and Resistance in Palestine, Bernard Regan(Verso, 2018) is an unmatched history of the Balfour Declaration and its aftermath. The UK government’s declaration was a pledge to the Zionist movement to support its aspirations to a ‘Jewish national home’ in historic Palestine – a shameless and cynical act that suited British colonial interests, while ignoring the needs of the Palestinians.

Regan doesn’t merely provide an account of the declaration’s history but documents the events that took Palestine from the Balfour Declaration in 1917 to the Nakba of 1948 that established Israel through massive ethnic cleansing. Crucially, this includes paying a lot of attention to the Palestinian resistance to growing settler-colonialism, especially the strikes and other revolts of 1936-39. 

4. Balfour’s Shadow: A Century of British Support for Zionism and Israel, David Cronin (Pluto, 2017) is also very strong on the context and ramifications of the Balfour Declaration. David Cronin demonstrates the close links between British colonial interests and developments in Palestine up to 1948.

The book has a much longer historical reach than this though. Cronin subsequently documents the ongoing complicity of the UK in Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians, with 5 out of 9 chapters covering events since 1948. These chapters focus on political, military and business relations, exposing how consistently supportive UK governments have been towards Israel. It is particularly damning about the history of Labour governments.

5. The Political Economy of Israel’s Occupation: Repression Beyond Exploitation, Shir Hever(Pluto, 2010) tackles the complex topic of the economics of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories. Hever, a left-wing Israeli economist, takes a long view, going back to 1967 when Israel occupied new territory including Gaza and the West Bank.

It is the kind of scholarly research that supports the efforts of activists by providing a wealth of facts and insights. Hever shows how Israel has strangled efforts at Palestinian economic development, as well as examining the relationships between Israel and the wider world, especially the US.

6. War Against the People: Israel, the Palestinians and Global Pacification,Jeff Halper (Pluto, 2015) is also concerned with economic and business relationships between Israel and the rest of the world. The focus is on revealing how Israel exports its hi-tech weapons, drone technology and security and surveillance systems to other countries, using its status as a market leader in violent repression to make profits and boost its international standing.

Halper analyses these technologies of control both in relation to the oppression of Palestinians and in terms of their wider use elsewhere in the world, showing how Israel plays a central role in the worldwide suppression of human rights. It is a chilling and disturbing book, via its focus on the cold, hard facts of how Israel both controls the lives of Palestinians and profits from its leading role in the global arms trade.

7. Bad News from Israel, Greg Philo and Mike Berry (Pluto, 2004) is a classic study of how the media mis-represents Israel’s ongoing war on the Palestinians in terms of a two-sided, eternal conflict between more or less equal sides. The authors, from the Glasgow University Media Group ,oversaw a large-scale, rigorous research project that examined how the news media represented Palestine and Israel. It goes beyond the headlines and examines the processes that shape these news representations: media ownership, dominant ideologies, and so on.

The book also benefits from a very extensive account of the history – stretching back to the birth of the Zionist movement – that is invariably omitted from media accounts. Current media bias on Gaza indicates why this book, which contains invaluable models and frameworks for examining news media output, retains its relevance. 

8. Cracks in the Wall: Beyond Apartheid in Palestine/Israel, Ben White (Pluto, 2018) is both sober and hopeful. White documents how Israel is ‘already a single (apartheid) state’ and is ruthlessly realistic about how grim the situation on the ground in Palestine is and how dreadfully right-wing and racist Israeli politics has become (in both these respects, things have only got worse since 2018).

But it also offers tentative hope by examining the cracks in the wall of support for Israeli apartheid, including the growing divides in American Jewish communities (with more mainly young Jews turning against Israel) and the impact of the global BDS movement and the pressures it has generated. It ends with a strong and cogent case for a one-state alternative based on radically different principles – including respect for the rights of all ethnic and social groups – to the current apartheid regime that stretches from the river to the sea.

9.   Working Palestine: Covid-19, Labour, and Trade Unions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Riya Al-Sanah, Adam Hanieh and Rafeef Ziadah (Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, 2021) is a remarkably thorough report. It is unusual and refreshing in focusing on Palestinian workers, their experiences at work, and their efforts to organise as workers.

The researchers provide a superb overview of the historical and political background before examining the conditions and struggles in a number of sectors: health, education, construction and agriculture. They also outline some ideas about the way ahead for Palestinian workers across historic Palestine. 

10. Poetic Injustice: writings on resistance and Palestine, Remi Kanazi (RoR Publishing, 2011) is rather different to everything else in this list. It is a collection of poems by Kanazi, a Palestinian writer based in New York, and it conveys the suffering, steadfastness and resistance of Palestinians on every page.

It may be a book of poems, but it actually has a great deal in common with the other titles here. Though expressed differently, it covers the same ground – as you can see from titles like ‘A Poem for Gaza’, ‘Palestinian Identity’, ‘Coexistence’ and ‘The Dos and Don’ts of Palestine’. At times lyrical, at times satirical, at times uplifting, it really packs a punch. 

⍐ Alex Snowdon     24 December 2023    Book review    Counterfire

Earth is finishing up its warmest year in the past 174 years, and very likely the past 125,000.

Earth Was Due for Another Year of Record Warmth. But This Warm?

Scientists are already busy trying to understand whether 2023’s off-the-charts heat is a sign that global warming is accelerating.

Earth is finishing up its warmest year in the past 174 years, and very likely the past 125,000.

Unyielding heat waves broiled Phoenix and Argentina. Wildfires raged across Canada. Flooding in Libya killed thousands. Wintertime ice cover in the dark seas around Antarctica was at unprecedented lows.

This year’s global temperatures did not just beat prior records. They left them in the dust. From June through November, the mercury spent month after month soaring off the charts. December’s temperatures have largely remained above normal: Much of the Northeastern United States is expecting springlike conditions this week.

That is why scientists are already sifting through evidence — from oceans, volcanic eruptions, even pollution from cargo ships — to see whether this year might reveal something new about the climate and what we are doing to it.

One hypothesis, perhaps the most troubling, is that the planet’s warming is accelerating, that the effects of climate change are barreling our way more quickly than before. “What we’re looking for, really, is a bunch of corroborating evidence that all points in the same direction,” said Chris Smith, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds. “Then we’re looking for causality. And that will be really interesting.”

As extreme as this year’s temperatures were, they did not catch researchers off guard. Scientists’ computational models offer a range of projected temperatures, and 2023’s heat is still broadly within this range, albeit on the high end.

On its own, one exceptional year would not be enough to suggest something was faulty with the computer models, said Andrew Dessler, an atmospheric scientist at Texas A&M University. Global temperatures have long bobbed up and down around a steady warming trend because of cyclical factors like El Niño, the climate pattern that appeared in spring and has intensified since, possibly signaling more record heat to come in 2024.

“Your default position has to be, ‘The models are right,’” Dr. Dessler said. “I’m not willing to say that we’ve ‘broken the climate’ or there’s anything weird going on until more evidence comes in.”

One thing researchers will be watching is whether something unexpected might be happening in the interplay of two major climate influences: the warming effect of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and the cooling effect of other types of industrial pollution.

For much of the past 174 years, humans have been filling the skies with both greenhouse gases and aerosols, or tiny particles from smokestacks, tailpipes and other sources. These particles are harmful to the lungs when inhaled. But in the atmosphere, they reflect solar radiation, partly offsetting the heat-trapping effect of carbon dioxide.

In recent decades, however, governments have begun reducing aerosol pollution for public-health reasons. This has already caused temperature increases to speed up since 2000, scientists estimate.

And in a much-discussed report last month, the climate researcher James E. Hansen argued that scientists had vastly underestimated how much more the planet would warm in the coming decades if nations cleaned up aerosols without cutting carbon emissions.

Not all scientists are persuaded.

Arguments like Dr. Hansen’s have been hard to square with patterns in recent decades, said Reto Knutti, a climate physicist at the Swiss university ETH Zurich. In recent years, scientists have also discovered that global warming is shaped not just by how much heat is trapped near Earth’s surface but also by how and where this heat is distributed across the planet.

This makes it even harder to conclude with confidence that warming is poised to accelerate, Dr. Knutti said. Until the current El Niño is over, “it’s unlikely we’ll be able to make definitive claims,” he said.

Pinning down the precise scale of aerosols’ effect has been difficult, too.

Part of how aerosols cool the planet is by making clouds brighter and deflecting more solar radiation. But clouds are devilishly complex, coming and going and leaving few traces for scientists to examine, said Tianle Yuan, a geophysicist with NASA and the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. “That’s fundamentally why it’s a hard problem,” he said.

This year, aerosols have been of particular interest because of a 2020 international regulation that restricted pollution from ships. Dr. Yuan and others are trying to identify how much the regulation might have increased global temperatures in recent years by limiting sunlight-reflecting aerosols.

Dr. Hansen’s argument for faster warming leans in part on reconstructions of climatic shifts between ice ages over the past 160,000 years.

Using Earth’s distant past to make inferences about climate in the coming years and decades can be tricky. Still, the planet’s deep history highlights how extraordinary the present era is, said Bärbel Hönisch, a scientist at Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

Fifty-six million years ago, for instance, geologic turmoil added carbon dioxide to the atmosphere in quantities comparable to what humans are adding today. Temperatures jumped. The oceans grew acidic. Species died en masse.

“The difference is that it took about 3,000 to 5,000 years to get there” back then, Dr. Hönisch said, compared with a few centuries today.

It then took Earth even longer to neutralize that excess carbon dioxide: about 150,000 years.

Nadja Popovich contributed reporting.

Raymond Zhong reports on climate and environmental issues for The Times

⍐ 

People gather at the Mao Zedong Square in Shaoshan

 Pushing forward the cause pioneered by Mao best way to pay tribute: Xi

By Cui Fandi in Shaoshan and 

Yang Sheng

 in BeijingPublished: Dec 26, 2023 11:56 PM

People gather at the Mao Zedong Square in Shaoshan, the late leader's hometown in Central China's Hunan Province, laying flowers in front of a giant Mao statue and singing the revolutionary song "The East Is Red" on December 26, 2023 to commemorate the 130th anniversary of Mao's birth. Similar events are also held in other places across China. Photo: Cui Fandi/GT

"The East Is Red"

Commemorations to mark the 130th anniversary of the birth of People's Republic of China's founding leader Chairman Mao Zedong were held by the Communist Party of China, the Chinese local governments and Chinese people across the country on Tuesday. 
From major cities like Beijing and Shanghai to Mao's hometown of Shaoshan in Central China's Hunan Province, as well as sacred revolutionary sites like Jingganshan in East China's Jiangxi Province and Yan'an in Northwest China's Shaanxi Province, high-profile official and voluntary commemorations nationwide highlight the significance of Mao's thoughts, spirit and legacies on all fronts to not only China, but also to a world in turbulence, as experts remarked.
High-profile commemoration
The Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee on Tuesday morning held a symposium to commemorate the 130th anniversary of the birth of Comrade Mao Zedong, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, Chinese president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, delivered an important speech at the symposium held in the Great Hall of the People in the heart of Beijing.
Xi stressed the importance of pushing forward the cause pioneered by Comrade Mao Zedong and called for efforts to build China into a stronger country and rejuvenate the Chinese nation on all fronts by pursuing Chinese modernization.
Mao Zedong Thought is an invaluable spiritual wealth for our Party and will guide our action in the long term, Xi said, underscoring that the best way to commemorate Comrade Mao Zedong is to continue to advance the cause pioneered by him.
Before the symposium, Xi and other members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Ding Xuexiang, Li Xi and Vice President Han Zheng, as well as other senior leaders of the Party and the state gathered at the Chairman Mao Memorial Hall. 
Xi and the leaders bowed three times to the seated statue of Comrade Mao and then went to pay homage to Comrade Mao's body in the hall where his remains lie.
Xin Ming, a professor at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, told the Global Times on Tuesday that "when it comes to round numbers like the 110th, 120th and 130th anniversaries, China will surely organize a high-profile commemoration to pay tribute to Mao, and Chinese people will voluntarily pay tribute to him because Mao had made tremendous contributions to the happiness that we have today and to the rejuvenation process of the Chinese nation." 
From 6 am on Monday to 5 pm on Tuesday, Mao's birthplace of Shaoshan welcomed 111,570 tourists, the Global Times learned from local tourism authorities, an increase of 712.93 percent from 2022 and 13.92 percent from 2019.
The city's tourism income on Monday and Tuesday reached 94.39 million yuan ($13.2 million), a 708.15 percent increase from 2022 and a 12.72 percent increase from 2019, as people from all over China flocked to Mao's birthplace to commemorate the 130th anniversary of his birth on Tuesday.
The Global Times learned from authorities in Shaoshan that people from all over the country spontaneously flocked to Shaoshan to commemorate the birthday of the late Chinese leader. "It is out of pure affection and respect that the people hold for the chairman, and it just cannot be stopped," said a local official who didn't give his name.  
In former revolutionary strongholds like Jinggangshan and Yan'an, commemorative events were held by local governments and ordinary people. And on social media networks, a huge number of netizens made comments to commemorate Mao in their own words. On Sina Weibo, China's X-like social media platform, the hashtags about the 130th anniversary of Mao's birth reached more than 300 million views and millions of comments as of press time.
A key reason why Mao is cherished greatly at present is that, at a time when China is shouldering rising pressures and hostility from the US and some of its allies, the people admire his courage, wisdom and determination to withstand and fight hegemony and imperialism, Xin noted. The outside world needs to correctly understand the strength and emotion behind the Chinese people's commemoration of Chairman Mao. 
When answering why Mao and his works are popular among the youth in China today, Kang Tian, a student from Tsinghua University in Beijing, told the Global Times that "we young people find that Chairman Mao is not far from us, as we can talk to him by reading his works, and find solutions and energy when we encounter difficulties and challenges. In the Chairman's mind, we, the youth, are warriors, creators and masters of the future."
Priceless legacies
In his speech on Tuesday, Xi said that the life of Comrade Mao Zedong was one devoted to national prosperity, rejuvenation and people's happiness. Mao led the people in blazing a trail for adapting Marxism to the Chinese context, forging the great, glorious and correct CPC and founding the New China with the people being masters of the country, Xi said.
Xi said Mao is "a great man of the generation who led the Chinese people to completely change their own destiny and the appearance of the country," and "is a great internationalist who made significant contributions to the liberation of the oppressed nations of the world and the cause of human progress." 
"Xi's remarks have comprehensively and precisely summed up the significance of Mao to both China and the world," Shen Yi, a professor at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Tuesday. Mao proved that Marxism could be adapted by the Chinese context. By innovating and reforming the ideological system of Marxism based on China's national conditions and practices of the CPC, China was able to ensure the Chinese revolution's success and find the correct path for the country's development. 
Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Tuesday that "if we can add one more title for Mao in the future, it could be 'the father of China's industrialization.' Mao's era accomplished the industrialization of China in only about 30 years, while the West spent about 300 years to do this." 
"After Mao's era ended, China became a nuclear-armed power with a complete industrial system and capability to explore space. This is a remarkable contribution and it was the foundation for China's successful reform and opening-up, as well as Chinese modernization today," Jin noted. 
Mao also led the people in establishing an advanced socialist system and founded a new model of people's army that is invincible, Xi said. Mao made indelible historic contributions to the Chinese nation and the Chinese people, which will go down in history, Xi said.
Comrade Mao Zedong devoted his life to the Party and the people, and his noble spirit will be forever remembered by posterity. Noting that the central task of the whole Party and the entire nation on the new journey of the new era is to build China into a stronger country and rejuvenating the Chinese nation on all fronts by pursuing Chinese modernization, Xi said it is a cause passed down from veteran revolutionaries including Mao Zedong, and is the solemn historical responsibility of today's Chinese Communists.
Zhang Yiwu, a professor from Peking University, told the Global Times that "Mao is the pioneer of Chinese modernization. He opened the way for China to step on the path of its own modernization." Mao will always be a symbol of China's spirit and Chinese culture, Zhang said.⍐

An explosion near the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi

No embassy staff hurt in blast near Israeli mission in Delhi

By Anushree Fadnavis and Krishn Kaushik December 26, 2023

Reuters

NEW DELHI, Dec 26 (Reuters) - An explosion near the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi on Tuesday did not kill or wound any staff members, authorities said, adding that investigations into its cause were ongoing.

Officials were still inspecting the area but it had been reopened to the general public. There was no information suggesting anyone on the street had been hurt.

Israeli missions around the world have been on alert amid a rise in antisemitic attacks since Israel launched its counteroffensive against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

"We can confirm that around 5:20 pm there was a blast at close proximity to the embassy," Israeli Embassy spokesperson Guy Nir told Reuters, adding that local police and security teams were investigating.

Nothing had been found in the search operation three hours after the blast, an official involved in the investigation told Reuters.

In January 2021, a small bomb went off near the Israeli embassy in New Delhi without harming anyone. An Israeli official said at the time that Israel was treating the blast as a terrorist incident.

Reporting by Anushree Fadnavis, Tanvi Mehta, Kanjyik Ghosh and Krishn Kaushik; Editing by David Goodman, William Maclean and Nick Macfie

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

NDTV

New Delhi: The Delhi Police received a call about a "blast" being heard near the Israeli embassy this evening.

A team of the Delhi Police along with the dog squad, crime team, and the bomb disposal squad reached the spot. Soon, experts from the forensic laboratory also reached the spot.

At an empty plot of land, just a few metres away from the embassy, the police found a letter addressed to the Israeli Ambassador.

They also found a flag wrapped with the letter. The letter has been seized by the police

The teams, after a thorough search of the area, collected exhibits as evidence and sent them for forensic examination, the police said.

Israel's deputy envoy Ohad Nakash Kaynar, in a video statement, said, "This evening, several minutes after 5 pm, an explosion occurred in close proximity with the embassy. All our workers are safe. Our diplomats are safe. Our security teams are working in full cooperation with the local Delhi security."

The police have increased security at the Chabad House in central Delhi's Paharganj area. A security cordon has been created around the Jewish community center. The cops are monitoring the area through CCTV cameras.

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