Israeli troops move swiftly into Syrian territory after rebel takeover
Israel defended its actions as defensive as nature, securing the country from future attacks, while Arab countries said they amounted to an illegal occupation.
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| Israeli soldiers on Monday along the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights. (Heidi Levine for The Washington Post) |
All the pieces that brought down Syria’s Assad
Syrian allies Iran, Russia and Hezbollah failed to answer Assad’s call for help while Syrian Army quickly collapsed under rebel assault
by Daniel Williams December 9, 2024
The triumph of the Islamic insurgency that ousted Syria’s dictator-for-life Bashar al-Assad resulted not only from the weakness of Syria’s own army but also the unwillingness of allies Iran, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah and Russia to help in an hour of need.
A decade ago, those three allies aided Assad in fighting off an armed uprising by an eclectic group of rebels that emerged out of the Arab Spring civil protests that had swept across the Middle East. With the help of Russian air power and Lebanese ground forces supported by Iran, Assad eventually and brutally drove armed Syrian rebels into a zone in the nation’s far northwest.
Fast forward to the present, only one of those allies was in a position to help Assad counter the latest rebel blitz. But they only offered token help and it was all too little, way too late:
Iran, which heads what it had called a regional “Axis of Resistance” but which is now engaged in a proxy war with Israel, had recently been bruised by Israeli rocket attacks. Tehran told Assad that it would only send some drones and rockets to protect the Syrian leader’s government.
Hezbollah, its top leaders killed during a variety of attacks by Israeli remote weapons and its soldiers bombarded throughout southern Lebanon and in Beirut, dispatched only a pair of “advisors” to Damascus and Homs last Friday (December 6). The rebels took Homs Saturday and then quickly went on to the capital.
Russia, its forces engaged in a slow effort to crush Ukrainian resistance, failed to commit itself to aid Assad, even though Syria hosts a pair of Russian military bases. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said only the rebel offensive was wrong. “It’s inadmissible to allow the terrorist group to take control of territory,” said Lavrov, who was attending a conference in Qatar with officials from Turkey and Iran meant to find ways to end the conflict in Syria.
“The speed of recent advances made by armed groups in northern Syria came as a surprise for Damascus,” wrote the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a Berlin-based think tank. “But the inability of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to hold back the rebels is easily explainable by the weakness of its allies: Iran and Hezbollah have been damaged by the conflict with Israel, while Russia is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine.”
And what of the Syrian army? It is largely a poorly equipped force composed of Sunni Muslims, the majority population in Syria – the ethnic group that has persistently opposed Assad and often persecuted by him. As rebels advanced beginning late last month, Syrian military units disintegrated, leaving the cities of Aleppo, Hamas and Homs and, eventually, Damascus defenseless.
Analysts said that chronic economic hardships and persistent armed conflict had taken a toll on Syrian society in general and on military morale in particular. The Syrian army is composed mainly of draftees.
“The army’s collapse is a reflection of a more general collapse in Syrian state institutions,” said Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Syria Report. “There is a deep sense in regime areas that things are not only not improving, but that there are no prospects of things getting better.”
“The fact that the security forces melted away is a bit of a surprise, but it’s not a huge surprise,” said Nathanial Hall, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. “They didn’t have the sort of morale to stand up against something like this.”
Outside of his formal military support, Assad also counted on domestic militias that were either unwilling or unable to thwart the rebel onslaught. In addition, he depended on elite Republican Guard units and a vast intelligence service—both of which were heavily staffed by trusted ethnic Alawi personnel in case they were needed to clamp down on domestic opponents.
It’s not clear where the Republican Guard was located as the rebels advanced toward Damascus and where intelligence officers are now.
Syria’s domestic spy system had, in any case, degenerated long before the uprising. “The state security apparatus still rules Syria with an iron fist, but the regime no longer exercises control of the country as it once did. It lacks both the resources and the legitimacy to provide peace and stability,” wrote Chatham House, a research institute based in London.
The winner in this sudden shift of fortunes is a consortium of varied insurgent groups, most of which are based in northeast Syria, though some are also scattered along its far southern and northern borders.
The largest is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which in English is translated as the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. HTS was the group that entered Damascus. HTS’ leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, had been previously seen walking down the steps of the massive Citadel castle in Aleppo, mobbed by supporters, when HTS conquered the city last week.
HTS was originally allied with al-Qaeda, which strove to establish an Islamic fundamentalist state in Syria. The group broke with the organization in 2017. In a move to attract foreign tolerance, if not support, HTS has pledged not to carry out terrorist attacks outside Syria. The United States and European Union still designate it as a terrorist organization.
HTS has effectively governed Idlib province in northeast Syria in recent years. During the long civil war, thousands of refugees fled to the Idlib area as well as to Lebanon and Turkey. There were plenty of destitute recruits to fill its ranks.
HTS’ next chore will be to set up governmental control over the territory it dominates. That would presumably exclude coastal Syria and small areas where US forces are based in northern Syria and near Jordan to the south.
Several allies were involved in the recent blitz that ended with the capture of Damascus. One of them, the Syrian Democratic Forces, is a Kurdish group sponsored by the United States. Another, the Syrian National Army, is sponsored by Turkey and employed to fight Kurdish separatists in Syria who might want to help Iraqi Kurdistan secede from Iraq.
Assad ally Russia, on the other hand, operates a naval base on the Mediterranean coast and an army inland. Russian forces were flaunting artillery and rocketry around its bases in recent days, in case rebels might approach.
Meanwhile, in an anodyne statement, Iran called for “the swift end of military conflicts, the prevention of terrorist actions, and the commencement of national dialogue.” Hezbollah has remained silent.
The US government, caught up in a political transition from lame-duck President Joe Biden to President-elect Donald Trump, reacted cautiously to the takeover. The Biden administration said only that it is “closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria.”
Trump issued a more effusive message on social media: “Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him,” he wrote. “Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success.”
Perhaps forgetting he was not yet president, Trump concluded by saying that the United States would not get involved in any way.
Daniel Williams is a former foreign correspondent for The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times and Miami Herald and an ex-researcher for Human Rights Watch. His book Forsaken: The Persecution of Christians in Today’s Middle East was published by O/R Books. He is currently based in Rome.
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Israeli military claims to have seized a buffer zone in Golan Heights amid chaos in Syria
1974 UN-monitored Disengagement Agreement, which established a demilitarized buffer zone between Israel and Syria
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday that the 1974 UN-monitored Disengagement Agreement, which established a demilitarized buffer zone between Israel and Syria, has "collapsed."
Netanyahu made the comments during a visit to Mount Bental in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, a vantage point overlooking the Syrian border. He was accompanied by Defense Minister Israel Katz.
The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has triggered a dramatic reshaping of West Asian geopolitics, with Israel and Turkey emerging as key beneficiaries of the regime’s collapse.
The Syrian leader’s downfall, nearly 14 years after the rebellion erupted, weakens Iran’s influence in the region and presents significant strategic opportunities for Ankara and Jerusalem.
Turkey’s strategic gains
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, once an ally of Assad, became a staunch supporter of the Syrian opposition early in the conflict, largely due to Assad’s alignment with Turkey’s regional rival, Iran, Politico reported.
Over the years, Turkey has provided vital support to armed Islamist factions within the Syrian opposition. As moderate and secular rebels lost ground, Turkish-backed Islamist groups consolidated power, bolstering Ankara’s influence.
Assad’s ouster enables Erdoğan to further his geopolitical ambitions, particularly against Kurdish separatists in northeastern Syria. Kurdish groups in the region, which share ties with Turkey’s domestic Kurdish insurgency, have long been a focal point of Turkish security policy.
With Assad gone, Ankara sees an opportunity to curb Kurdish autonomy and reshape the power dynamics in northern Syria. Additionally, the post-war reconstruction effort could prove lucrative for Turkish businesses eager to capitalize on rebuilding Syria’s shattered infrastructure.
In Jerusalem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad’s fall a “historic day,” pointing to its impact on Iran and Hezbollah, Assad’s principal allies. Israel’s decades-long enmity with Assad’s regime has been tied to its support for Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and a key Iranian proxy.
With Assad out of power, Iran’s ability to supply Hezbollah through land routes in Syria is effectively severed, dealing a severe blow to the group’s military capabilities, Politico reported.
Netanyahu ordered Israeli troops to secure Syrian army positions in the Golan Heights buffer zone to prevent hostile forces from taking root amid the chaos. While celebrating the strategic opportunity, Netanyahu warned of potential instability and called for vigilance to address emerging threats in the region.
Iran’s influence in Syria has been significantly undermined by Assad’s fall. Tehran, which invested heavily in propping up Assad, now faces the collapse of a critical member of its so-called “axis of resistance.” The loss of Syria as a strategic ally disrupts Iranian efforts to maintain a corridor for resupplying Hezbollah in Lebanon, further weakening its regional power.
Hezbollah, reliant on Iranian support, is also a major loser in the regime change. The militant group’s diminished capabilities could alter the balance of power in Lebanon, potentially freeing the country from Hezbollah’s dominance and opening the door for greater political and economic stability.
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Sir Keir, who is visiting the region to promote the UK's links with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, urged Syrians to find a political agreement that protected civilians and minorities and rejected terrorism and violence.
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WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden said Sunday that the sudden collapse of the Syrian government under Bashar Assad is a “fundamental act of justice” after decades of repression, but it was “a moment of risk and uncertainty” for the Middle East.
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Opposition fighters have taken control of key cities and freed prisoners held for years behind bars.
Capture of Aleppo threatens regime stability in Syria
The survival of the regime of the president, Bashar al-Assad, hangs in the balance following the fall of most of Aleppo, Syria’s second city, into the hands of opposition forces. It was the most significant gain by opposition groups since Russia’s intervention in 2015 turned the tide of the conflict in Mr Assad’s favour. Although the Syrian regime was dramatically enfeebled by the rebel assault, we still consider the wholesale collapse of the regime an unlikely prospect in the near term.
The opposition assault, which began on November 27th and was spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, an armed Salafi group), is expanding rapidly in the face of limited resistance by regime forces. HTS has capitalised on the weakening of regime defences in northern Syria, with most of the Syrian military there composed of conscripts and less-experienced units. Meanwhile, the redeployment of Iranian and allied Lebanese militia forces to Lebanon to confront Israel’s incursion at the start of October has further weakened the regime’s position. Most of Aleppo, along with its international airport and the Kuweiris airbase on the eastern outskirts, is now under the control of HTS, which faced minimal casualties during its takeover. The ease with which the rebels captured Aleppo highlights their strategic advantage. In addition, rebel forces have successfully recaptured towns along the south-eastern border of the province of Idlib, including Sarakib and Maarat Naaman. With control over a section of the M5, Syria’s main north-south highway, HTS is now positioned on the outskirts of Hama, another major government-held city.
Despite the unprecedented gains made by HTS, alongside the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, we expect that the rebels’ momentum will slow. The Syrian army has regrouped around Hama, with the support of more experienced and loyal units, in order to slow the HTS advance. Its position will be reinforced by the addition of Iranian-backed groups from elsewhere in Syria, notably the Afghan-dominated Fatimiyoun, and Popular Mobilisation Forces militias from Iraq. Russia and the Syrian air force have meanwhile stepped up air strikes on HTS positions, both those recently captured and those in the rebel heartland surrounding the city of Idlib, which will probably delay any plans to organise a fresh push into the south.
Even if Hama were to fall to the rebels, making further gains would be increasingly difficult. Homs and Damascus, Syria’s capital, along with the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartous, would pose significant challenges to any rebel advance. These areas are the heartland of Mr Assad’s Alawite sect, where fears of sectarian violence from the Salafi HTS could galvanise the local population to support the regime. Moreover, Latakia and Tartous are home to Russia’s main military bases, and Iran and Hizbullah (a Lebanese Iranian-backed Shia Islamist political group) have concentrated their forces around Homs and Damascus.
In addition, there is a persistent risk of intra-rebel clashes in recently captured territories, which would undermine HTS’s momentum. Although HTS has so far avoided direct contact with the SNA and the SDF in Aleppo, the SNA has engaged SDF-held position to the north-east of the city, reflecting Turkey’s objectives to curb the spread of Kurdish influence near its border. Any fighting between these factions could draw HTS into the conflict, diverting crucial military resources away from its new front lines against the regime.
Clashes are expected to continue along the new front lines near Hama and in southern Aleppo province in the medium term, although we believe that significant rebel gains that could fundamentally threaten the regime are improbable. However, the government is unlikely to reverse the recent advances made by the rebels because of the weakness of Syrian army as an offensive force, especially without considerable support from Russia, Iran, Hizbullah and other key allies, which we do not expect to be forthcoming. The recent campaign has left the government weakened, shattering perceptions of regime stability and making Mr Assad more vulnerable to internal challenges, as shown by reports of clashes within the army in Damascus on November 30th. Although we currently assess that a military coup is unlikely, these recent developments have significantly undermined Mr Assad’s prospects of extending his regime beyond the end of his current presidential term in 2028.
The analysis and forecasts presented in this article are drawn from EIU’s Country Analysis service. This comprehensive solution offers essential insights into the political and economic outlook of nearly 200 countries, empowering businesses to manage risks and develop effective strategies.
The Southern Operations Room, a newly announced rebel faction in the south, announced a curfew in Daraa overnight Friday. Unverified videos posted online showed a statue of former president Hafez al-Assad being toppled in the city. The Syrian state news agency SANA said that “the sounds heard in some areas of the southern Damascus countryside are of long-range targeting and shooting at terrorist gatherings in Daraa.”
The relationship of the southern rebels with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist faction that made stunning gains in the north over the past week, remains unclear.
HTS said on Saturday that its forces had captured the city of al-Sanamayn, north of Daraa, and were about 12 miles away from the “southern gate” of the Damascus.
The group’s forces have also been closing in on Homs, a strategic choke point north of the capital. If HTS captures Homs, Syria’s third largest city, it will mark a significant strategic victory, as Assad-held Damascus will be cut off from the coast and what remains of the regime’s territory will be split in two. It could solidify the rebel group’s gains and moving it closer to taking the capital after capturing Aleppo and then Hama, as the 13-year conflict reignited.
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