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| ''கூலித் தமிழ்`` வெளியீட்டை ஒட்டி BBC செய்தியகத்தில் திரு.மு.நித்தியானந்தன் அவர்கள் 175 ஆண்டுகளுக்கு முன்னால் இந்தியாவில் இருந்து இலங்கைக்கு காலனித்துவ கூலி அடிமைகளாக கடத்திக் கொன்று வரப்பட்ட மக்கள் சந்தித்த குரூர வாழ்வை; அக்காலத்தின் தோட்டத்துறை அதிகார வர்க்கத்தின் அடக்குமுறை மொழியாக `கூலித்தமிழ்` பயிற்றுவிக்கப்பட்ட வரலாற்றை, இலக்கிய சாட்சியங்கள் ஊடாக,
கோப்பிக்காலம் முதல் தற்காலம் வரை ஆய்வு செய்துள்ளார் இந்நூலாசிரியர்.
கூலித்தமிழ் ஆய்வு நூல் வெளியீடு குறித்து BBC தமிழோசை மணிவண்ணனுடன் நூலாசிரியர் பகிர்ந்து கொண்ட கருத்துக்களை கீழ்க்காணும் இணைப்பில் காணக்கூடும். 25-04-2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/tamil/sri_lanka/2015/04/150425_koolithamail நூல் அறிமுகம் Rathina Iyer Pathmanaba Iyer added 3 new photos. 29 November 2014 · Edited · Face Book நண்பர் மு.நித்தியானந்தன் அவர்களது முதலாவது நூல் சில தினங்கள் முன்னர் வெளியாகியுள்ளதை மகிழ்ச்சியுடன் பகிர்ந்துகொள்கிறேன். 'கூலித் தமிழ்'
எனும் தலைப்பிலான இந்நூலினைத் தமிழகத்தில் 'க்ரியா' பதிப்பகம் அழகாகப் பதிப்பித்துள்ளது! 'வீரகேசரி', 'தினகரன்' பத்திரிகைகளில் நண்பர் நித்தியானந்தனது கட்டுரைகள் பல வெளியாகியுள்ளன என்பதோடு மூன்று, நான்கு நூல்களுக்குரிய விஷயங்களைப் பல ஆண்டுகளுக்கு முன்னரே எழுதிவைத்திருந்தபோதும், ஒருவித அசிரத்தை காரணமாக, நண்பர் நித்தியானந்தனது நூல் எதுவும் இன்றுவரை வெளிவராமை துரதிர்ஷ்டமே!
இந்நிலையில், இப்போது அவரது முதலாவது நூல் வெளிவந்திருக்கின்றமை, புத்தாண்டில் மேலும் ஒருசில நூல்கள் வெளிவரும் என்கிற ஒரு நம்பிக்கையைத் தருகின்றது.
'கூலித் தமிழ்' நூலின் உள்ளடக்கம் பற்றிச் சுருங்கக்கூறின் பின்வருமாறு கூறலாம்!
* 19ஆம் நூற்றாண்டில் தமிழகத்திலிருந்து இலங்கையின் மத்திய மலைநாட்டுப் பகுதிகளுக்குக் 'கூலி'களாகக் கொண்டுசெல்லப்பட்ட இந்திய வம்சாவளித் தமிழர்களின் மத்தியில் எழுந்த முதல் எழுத்து முயற்சிகளை இந்நூல் பதிவுசெய்கிறது. * நூற்றைம்பது ஆண்டுகளுக்கு முன் மலையகத் தமிழர்கள்மீது இடம்பெற்ற கொடூர துரைத்தன அடக்குமுறையையும், ஆங்கிலத் துரைமார் தமிழ் பேச உபயோகித்த 'கூலித் தமிழ்' போதினிகளில் இந்த அடக்குமுறை எவ்வாறு வெளிப்படுகிறது என்பதையும் ஆராயும் கட்டுரைகள் இந்நூலில் இடம்பெற்றுள்ளன. * இந்திய வம்சாவளித் தமிழர்கள் மோசமாக நடத்தப்படுவதற்கு எதிராகக் கருமுத்து தியாகராசர் எழுப்பிய கண்டனங்கள் முதல்முறையாக இந்நூலில் பதிவுபெறுகின்றன. * மலையகத்தில் எழுந்த முதல் இரண்டு நாவல்கள் பற்றிய ஆய்வுகள் மலையக இலக்கியத்திற்கு வளம் சேர்ப்பவை. * அஞ்சுகம் என்ற கணிகையர்குலப் பெண் ஆளுமையை மலையகத்தின் முதல் பெண் புலமையாளராக இந்நூல் அடையாளப்படுத்துகிறது. * ஐரோப்பிய நூலகங்களில் மேற்கொள்ளப்பட்ட விரிவான தேடல்கள் இந்நூல் ஆய்விற்குப் பலம் சேர்த்துள்ளன.
விரைவில் லண்டனிலும், தொடர்ந்து இலங்கை, ஐரோப்பா, கனடா போன்ற இடங்களிலும் நூல் வெளியீட்டு நிகழ்வுகள் இடம்பெறுமென அறிகிறேன்.
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Sunday, April 26, 2015
மு.நித்தியானந்தனின் `கூலித்தமிழ்`மலையக இலக்கிய ஆய்வு நூல் வெளியீடு
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Peoples’ Alliance May Be Revived To Prop Up Rajapaksa
By P.K.Balachandran Published: 18th April 2015
COLOMBO: The Peoples’ Alliance (PA) which won all major elections in Sri Lanka from 1994 to 2001, is likely to be revived to prop up defeated Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, according to media reports.
The move to revive the PA stems from the conviction that the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), which is Rajapaksa’s party, will not put him up as its Prime Ministerial candidate in the
coming parliamentary elections. This is because there is no love lost between Maithripala Sirisena, the current chairman of the SLFP, and Rajapaksa, who Sirisena had defeated in the January 8 Presidential election.
A conglomerate of the SLFP and left parties, the PA was put together in 1994 to take on the then entrenched United National Party (UNP). Though its place was taken by the United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) in 2004-2005, the PA continued to officially exist with the “chair” as its election symbol. Its General Secretary (former Prime Minister D.M.Jayaratne) and some of its constituents are now with the Rajapaksa faction.
It is clear that the SLFP is going to split on the Rajapaksa issue. Stung by the belligerence of the Rajapaksa faction, Sirisena told party MPs that those who do not want him to carry out his Presidential election pledges will not be given tickets in the coming parliamentary elections.
Top leaders of the SLFP want Sirisena to disengage himself from the UNP. They have also said that they will not support the 19 th. Constitutional Amendment Bill (meant to depoliticize Lanka’s administration), unless Sirisena simultaneously brings a bill for electoral reforms. Voting on the 19 th Amendment is fixed for April 21.
But Sirisena has made it clear that he cannot ditch the UNP, as he had won the Presidential election with UNP’s support. He also feels that electoral reforms cannot be carried out in a hurry. He has threatened to dissolve parliament if the 19 th. Amendment is not passed on April 21.
Sirisena is hopeful of getting a parliament that will back his agenda, despite the fact that his government’s lackluster performance thus far, is boosting Rajapaksa’s prospects.
Saturday, April 18, 2015
Mahinda Rajapaksa prepares for political comeback!
Mahinda Rajapaksa prepares for political comeback in Sri Lanka
Former president who suffered surprise election defeat in January plans to stand in parliamentary polls, aides sayMahinda Rajapaksa, the former president of Sri Lanka, is planning to stand in parliamentary polls to launch an attempt to return to power, aides have said.
The veteran politician, who suffered a surprise defeat in snap presidential polls he called in January this year, has been taking a break from politics and has yet to formally declare any campaign.
However, he has been meeting hundreds of supporters who visit his residence in the town of Hambantota, and travelling widely around Sri Lanka to see elected members of local and municipal authorities.
“You wait and see,” Rajapaksa said, when asked last week if he was a spent force. “I am yet to take a decision on CONTESTING, but if people request me, I can’t refuse.”
The victory of Maithripala Sirisena by six percentage points in a runoff vote on 8 January was welcomed by India and western nations including the US. Analysts had described the election as the most significant in the country for decades and a last chance for democracy.
Rajapaksa came to power in 2005, led the military to a bloody victory over violent separatists from the Tamil minority four years later and surfed a wave of popularity among the Sinhala majority TO WIN again in 2010. He then had the constitution changed to allow the third term he hoped to win in January’s poll.
However, allegations of corruption, violent intimidation of political opponents, attacks on journalists, growing resentment among Tamils and mounting sectarian violence led to concern at home and abroad.
Rajapaksa’s aides say that soon after the surprise defeat he was downcast. But they say he “picked up fast when he saw people coming to see him”.
“When he saw that he still had that following, he was back to his old self,” said one friend, whose relationship with Rajapaksa goes back more than 18 years.
Observers point out that Rajapaksa remains popular among his core Sinhala, rural, conservative Buddhist support base. He is also acknowledged to be an effective campaigner, working a crowd with avuncular ease.
“He wants the government to feel that he is its main threat, and he has succeeded in doing that. There is no opposition without Rajapaksa right now,” an aide said.
Three rallies have been organised in different parts of Sri Lanka to call for the ousted president to CONTEST the parliamentary polls.
Rajapaksa has blamed his defeat on a conspiracy involving Indian and western intelligence agencies.
The first step to a return to power would involve getting a nomination from his own Sri Lanka Freedom party (SLFP) to stand in parliamentary polls expected in June. The former president told the Guardian he was confident he would be wanted as a candidate.
“I am SLFPer, I have been a SLFPer all my life. Why should the party refuse me nominations? I plan to CONTEST from the SLFP. The fact that I am a SLFPer can not be ignored,” he said.
An alternative might be to join another party that appeals to his support base. “Rajapaksa will come from a platform that will CONTEST on a Sinhala nationalist agenda. That is where his power base is, these are the voters that never deserted him,” the aide said.
This will raise fears of increased tensions in what is an already polarised nation. Votes from the Tamil-dominated former warzone in the country’s north and from areas with large Muslim communities played a key role in Rajapaksa’s defeat. According to one report, Sirisena got nearly three-quarters of the vote in the Tamil stronghold of Kilinochchi.
In a speech this week, the new president called for unity. “Throughout history our strength as a nation has come from the mutual understanding and co-existence that made us rise together to defend our motherland,” Sirisena said.
However, Sirisena and the prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, a veteran of Sri Lanka’s convoluted and bitter politics, face significant challenges. One problem is the instability of the ruling coalition. Essentially united only by a desire to oust Rajapaksa, the government needs to consolidate its hold in the national assembly at the coming elections.
Sirisena is trying to rebalance executive power by reinforcing Sri Lanka’s judiciary and parliament, while stripping the president’s office of the extensive powers accumulated under Rajapaksa. However, this will need new legislation and possibly a referendum.
There are also deep economic problems and the bruises of the 26-year war are still livid. In the closing phases of the conflict, thousands of Tamil civilians were killed in army bombardments and confused fighting with separatist extremists from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
According to Wickremasinghe, there are still more than 200 detainees loosely categorised as political prisoners in Sri Lankan jails.
Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, executive director of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a Colombo-based think tank, said any decline in the new government’s popularity would open an opportunity for a comeback by the ousted president.
“As long as the government’s popularity keeps eroding, Rajapaksa becomes a factor, he becomes an obvious choice for disgruntled voters, especially from the majority Sinhala community,” he said.
Rajapaksa’s aide said the former president was in no hurry to mount his comeback bid. “He knows how to wait, he waited 35 years before he showed anyone he had presidential ambitions. Now he will wait till this government makes its moves,” he said.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
ஆந்திர நிர்வாகத்தின் தமிழ்த் தொழிலாளர் படுகொலை- கோரப் புகைப்படக் காட்சிகள்
புகைப்படங்கள் நன்றி: இனந்தெரியாதோருக்கு ENB
ஆந்திர அரசின் தமிழகக் கூலித் தொழிலாளர் படுகொலையை எதிர்த்து கழகம் கண்டன ஆர்ப்பாட்டம்!
தமிழகத்தைச் சேர்ந்த தொழிலாளர்கள் ஆந்திராவில் செம்மரம் வெட்டுகிறார்கள் என்று கூறி நூற்றுக்கணக்கானோரை ஆந்திரா போலீஸ் கைது செய்து சிறையில் அடைத்து வருகிறது. இந்நிலையில் இம்மாதம் 8ஆம் திகதியன்று ஆந்திராவின் சித்தூர் மாவட்டம் ஸ்ரீவாரிமெட்டு வனப்பகுதியில் உள்ள ஸ்ரீநிவாசமங்காபுரத்தில் தமிழக தொழிலாளர்கள் 200 பேர் செம்மரம் வெட்டுவதாக கூறி டிஐஜி காந்தராவ் தலைமையிலான `செம்மரக் கடத்தல் தடுப்புப் பிரிவு போலீசார்` அன்று காலை தேடுதல் நடவடிக்கை மேற்கொண்டனர். அப்போது தமிழக கூலித் தொழிலாளர்கள் மீது கண்மூடித்தனமாக துப்பாக்கிச் சூடு நடத்தி 20 தமிழ்த் தொழிலாளர்களைப் படுகொலை செய்துள்ளனர். மேலும் பல தொழிலாளர்கள் படுகாயமடைந்த நிலையில் மருத்துவமனைகளில் சேர்க்கப்பட்டுள்ளனர்.
இப்படு பாதகக் கொலையில் பலியானோர் தமிழகத்தின் திருவண்ணாமலை மற்றும் வேலூர் மாவட்டங்களைச் சேர்ந்தவர்கள் ஆவர்.
மக்கள் ஜனநாயக இளைஞர் கழகம் கண்டன ஆர்ப்பாட்டம்
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இப்படு பாதகக் கொலையில் பலியானோர் தமிழகத்தின் திருவண்ணாமலை மற்றும் வேலூர் மாவட்டங்களைச் சேர்ந்தவர்கள் ஆவர்.
இப்படுகொலை மிகக் கொடூரமான முறையில் நடத்தப்பட்டதற்கான ஆதாரங்கள் உள்ளன.மிக நெருக்கத்தில் வைத்து தானியங்கித் துப்பாக்கிகளால் ஆந்திர போலீஸார் சுட்டுள்ளதாக கூறப்படுகிறது.பலருக்கு நெற்றியில் குண்டு பாய்ந்துள்ளதாகவும் கூறப்படுகிறது
மக்கள் ஜனநாயக இளைஞர் கழகம் கண்டன ஆர்ப்பாட்டம்
ஆந்திர மாநில நிர்வாகத்தின் இந்த அடக்குமுறையை எதிர்த்து கழக முழக்கம் ஏந்திய பதாகை.
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20 தமிழ்த் தொழிலாளர்கள் படுகொலையை கண்டித்து
மக்கள் ஜனநாயக இளைஞர் கழகம்
கண்டன ஆர்ப்பாட்டம் !
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ஆரூர் வட்டாட்சியர் அலுவலகம் எதிரில் ,ரௌண்டன பேருந்து நிறுத்தம் .
நாள் :20/04/2015 திங்கள் மாலை 4.00 p.m.
தலைமை : தோழர் ஞானம் மாநில அமைப்பளர் ம ஜ இ க .
சிறப்புரை : தோழர் மனோகரன் ம ஜ இ க சென்னை
நன்றியுரை ; தோழர் .மயகண்ணன்
தருமபுரி கிருஷ்ணகிரி மாவட்ட ம ஜ இ க அமைப்பாளர்.
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Chinese Naval Ships to Use Pakistan's Port After Colombo Snub
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| Colombo Port |
World | Press Trust of India | Updated: April 15, 2015 23:27 IST
BEIJING: Pakistan's Gwadar port which has been taken over by a Chinese firm could guarantee maintenance and supply for China's naval ships in the Indian Ocean after the new Sri Lankan government declined permission for Chinese vessels to dock in the country.
"The Gwadar port will also guarantee China's naval ships' maintenance and supply in the Indian Ocean. The move is widely seen as crucial for China, especially as it is unlikely that Sri Lanka will open its ports to Chinese naval ships," Zhao Gancheng, director of South Asia Studies at Shanghai Institute for International Studies told state-run Global Times.
The new Sri Lankan government headed by President Maithripala Srisena reversed his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's policy of allowing Chinese submarines to dock in Colombo, following India's concerns.
Zhao said the port will serve as a major route to the Indian Ocean for Chinese goods, which will have far-reaching significance for China's Xinjiang region's economic development.
Xinjiang is planned to be connected through an economic corridor with Gwadar through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
Chinese experts however warned of inherent risks about the project in view of militancy in the Balochistan region.
Experts cautioned about obstacles as the port area suffers from a lack of water resources, housing, transportation and other facilities to provide for a large workforce, the Global Times reported.
Wang Dehua, an expert with the Shanghai Municipal Center for International Studies, who has been visiting Gwadar Port since 2007, said that detailed plans on building highways, railways and pipelines are the second step.
"Building such infrastructure has inherent risks and difficulties, he said, due to the high mountain ranges and security issues caused by militants operating in the region.
These difficulties can be overcome, but may take time," he said.
The port will formally commence operations by a Chinese company this month which is projected as a key transportation hub of the planned China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Story First Published: April 15, 2015 - NDTV
US checkmates China with Modi and Sirisena
Ceylon today, 2015-04-16
US checkmates China with Modi and Sirisena
The government has used the US to influence the UN to postpone the probe report's publication until September, a mere 150 days away. The report will be made public irrespective of whether the government initiates its own domestic probe on par with global standards which meet UN specifications. Despite all the ballyhoo, MR knows that the west and Sirisena and company will in the final essay allow the UN to throw the BOOK at MR come September. Besides the anti-west foreign policy issue that created the conditions for the birth of the MS faction and MR's ouster from power, MR's survival, as he see it, leaves him no option but to wrest power by hook or by crook to be in power again as the ONLY OPTION available to him to ensure that he can call the cards when the UN report is made public. In MR's mind, he will concede that Sirisena is unlikely to anger the electorate by throwing him to the wolves. It could ricochet badly on him at election time.
The government has used the US to influence the UN to postpone the probe report's publication until September, a mere 150 days away. The report will be made public irrespective of whether the government initiates its own domestic probe on par with global standards which meet UN specifications. Despite all the ballyhoo, MR knows that the west and Sirisena and company will in the final essay allow the UN to throw the book at MR come September. Besides the anti-west foreign policy issue that created the conditions for the birth of the MS faction and MR's ouster from power, MR's survival, as he see it, leaves him no option but to wrest power by hook or by crook to be in power again as the only option available to him to ensure that he can call the cards when the UN report is made public. In MR's mind, he will concede that Sirisena is unlikely to anger the electorate by throwing him to the wolves. It could ricochet badly on him at election time.
MS persuaded the US to get the report postponed for no other reason than this. All he has to do to signal the UN to publish the report is to have Mangala Samaraweera take a call to the US. I am not brave enough to hazard a guess as to whether or not he can DEAL with the social pejoration it will generate. It can undo the steady inroads he is making into the hearts of the electorate that he is carefully cultivating.
There are unspoken fears known to Sirisena and Ranil who naturally would not want negative and highly disturbing details coming out in a UN probe. This is one of the main undercurrents inexorably pushing MR to make a bid for power again and equally powerfully pushing Sirisena to delay the probe report because it would lead to a huge groundswell of sympathy for MR that could translate into a massive vote for him as Premier in the general election. On the flip side, properly handled, the release of the report could be so manipulated. And timed that it could cast MR in very bad light and swing voter fervour against MR. Sirisena could be playing for time for that purpose and till then hold the domestic probe in abeyance. All I'm saying is that these are the factors which impact on the motives which drive MR, MS and Ranil to seek power at the coming general elections. The US and India would not want the report out for the same reason, while China will not trust Sirisena either way. All else in between with Sirisena will be aimed at gauging out how deep his link with the west goes before they make a decisive policy decision about him.
UN probe report
These facets in the background are what drive MR to want power again so that he has control if and when the UN probe report is released. It's imperative and that is why he has mounted a strong bid to return to power. He simply can't have CBK-Ranil-Sirisena handling a probe any less than he can afford to have the UN throw a probe report in his face. MR knows he now has to come out as a candidate of a new party and a coalition led by him. That's why I said the battle lines are drawn. They were drawn before the UPFA's 'MR FOR PM' demand was launched.
The Congress led administration's approach, that had none of Modi's stance, was seen by the west to be weak in the face of a China that was swiftly consolidating its hold in the Indian Ocean region via its ever increasing footprints all over Sri Lanka and more ominously, offshore too and in the Maldives. Under MR Sri Lanka was quickly becoming a Chinese satellite or slave State. Trends in India and Sri Lanka had to be arrested and reversed fast.
Modi's willingness to smile and shake China by the hand must never be interpreted to mean that he's forgotten what's between the lines in the India-US military/defence agreement. Such agreements are put in place and are primed to be ACTIVATED at a moment's notice when perceived military threats from a potential enemy force show signs of metamorphosing into rapid deployment forces, jets and submarines literally where your fishermen are fishing. Those Indian fishing trawlers, I can assure you, are doing a heck of a lot more than fishing. A trawler with anti-asdic technology on board can spot a sub, especially a nuclear sub, more than five kilometres away. When an Indian Admiral, a few years ago, took a speed boat ride around Trincomalee Harbour, shortly after explosions ripped out a secret truck load of Chinese explosives in Trincomalee, flattening the Police Station and killing some people, his experienced eye was looking for evidence even back then of Chinese subs deep down in the harbour... WHY? Compelling reasons why Modi's India will back the CBK/Sirisena/Ranil trio to the hilt!
All this puts the last presidential election and today's developments into some sort of logical perspective. We then understand better why Sirisena is playing for time before he and CBK are reasonably sure of victory before calling a general election. The MR UPFA faction can bay all day to the moon, but Sirisena will not call a general election until he is sure the electorate has swung away from MR to the new look SLFP. A revamped Central Committee and islandwide elections organizational structure has also to be in place before he calls a general election. The cleansing out of the CC has run into some flak, but the President seems to be able to respond in a manner that shows he has anticipated these minor hiccups and has contingency plans to retain his growing stranglehold on the emerging new SLFP. No matter what wishful thinkers contend, I find it difficult to see the sacked CC members making, at best, a temporary come back to the CBK/SIRISENA SLFP.
Split in SLFP
Changes in the SLFP 'administered' by Sirisena merely prove my prediction in last week's analysis of a huge split in the SLFP. What Sirisena and CBK are trying to do is to control that split to ensure that they inherit the biggest piece of the SLFP mirror when its shattered pieces fall apart. The vote on the CB Governor's issue proved tha I would not be surprised to see President MS tear up the 100-day programme, and postpone the dissolution of Parliament for June next year, consolidate in the electorate, precipitate the split on the SLFP, have Ranil make more inroads into floating votes and then call a general election. A split SLFP faction in Parliament backed by its leftist riot squad of Vasu, Wimal, Dinesh, Tissa Vitharana et all can at best rouse the rabble in some electorates to create riots here and there in desperate death struggles. Sirisena has been cheek by jowl with these characters in Parliament for decades. He knows what to expect and, I suspect, is more than a match for rabble rousers. And of course we all know who FINANCES these elements. And we also know that India wants the Port City Project out.
The scenario then seems poised to turn very ugly, very soon. Given the known qualities of the antagonists, one looks objectively at the unfolding realities and sees chaos, even anarchy. Violence, planned violence. The university students' protests were just a testing of the waters, a dry run.
The blurred battle lines are getting clearer by the day. It does not take an Einstein to tell you who's on the wrong side of the moral equation.
US checkmates China with Modi and Sirisena
The government has used the US to influence the UN to postpone the probe report's publication until September, a mere 150 days away. The report will be made public irrespective of whether the government initiates its own domestic probe on par with global standards which meet UN specifications. Despite all the ballyhoo, MR knows that the west and Sirisena and company will in the final essay allow the UN to throw the BOOK at MR come September. Besides the anti-west foreign policy issue that created the conditions for the birth of the MS faction and MR's ouster from power, MR's survival, as he see it, leaves him no option but to wrest power by hook or by crook to be in power again as the ONLY OPTION available to him to ensure that he can call the cards when the UN report is made public. In MR's mind, he will concede that Sirisena is unlikely to anger the electorate by throwing him to the wolves. It could ricochet badly on him at election time.
The government has used the US to influence the UN to postpone the probe report's publication until September, a mere 150 days away. The report will be made public irrespective of whether the government initiates its own domestic probe on par with global standards which meet UN specifications. Despite all the ballyhoo, MR knows that the west and Sirisena and company will in the final essay allow the UN to throw the book at MR come September. Besides the anti-west foreign policy issue that created the conditions for the birth of the MS faction and MR's ouster from power, MR's survival, as he see it, leaves him no option but to wrest power by hook or by crook to be in power again as the only option available to him to ensure that he can call the cards when the UN report is made public. In MR's mind, he will concede that Sirisena is unlikely to anger the electorate by throwing him to the wolves. It could ricochet badly on him at election time.
MS persuaded the US to get the report postponed for no other reason than this. All he has to do to signal the UN to publish the report is to have Mangala Samaraweera take a call to the US. I am not brave enough to hazard a guess as to whether or not he can DEAL with the social pejoration it will generate. It can undo the steady inroads he is making into the hearts of the electorate that he is carefully cultivating.
There are unspoken fears known to Sirisena and Ranil who naturally would not want negative and highly disturbing details coming out in a UN probe. This is one of the main undercurrents inexorably pushing MR to make a bid for power again and equally powerfully pushing Sirisena to delay the probe report because it would lead to a huge groundswell of sympathy for MR that could translate into a massive vote for him as Premier in the general election. On the flip side, properly handled, the release of the report could be so manipulated. And timed that it could cast MR in very bad light and swing voter fervour against MR. Sirisena could be playing for time for that purpose and till then hold the domestic probe in abeyance. All I'm saying is that these are the factors which impact on the motives which drive MR, MS and Ranil to seek power at the coming general elections. The US and India would not want the report out for the same reason, while China will not trust Sirisena either way. All else in between with Sirisena will be aimed at gauging out how deep his link with the west goes before they make a decisive policy decision about him.
UN probe report
These facets in the background are what drive MR to want power again so that he has control if and when the UN probe report is released. It's imperative and that is why he has mounted a strong bid to return to power. He simply can't have CBK-Ranil-Sirisena handling a probe any less than he can afford to have the UN throw a probe report in his face. MR knows he now has to come out as a candidate of a new party and a coalition led by him. That's why I said the battle lines are drawn. They were drawn before the UPFA's 'MR FOR PM' demand was launched.
The Congress led administration's approach, that had none of Modi's stance, was seen by the west to be weak in the face of a China that was swiftly consolidating its hold in the Indian Ocean region via its ever increasing footprints all over Sri Lanka and more ominously, offshore too and in the Maldives. Under MR Sri Lanka was quickly becoming a Chinese satellite or slave State. Trends in India and Sri Lanka had to be arrested and reversed fast.
Which is why and how Sirisena came to power. Which is also how Modi came to power in India.
Modi's willingness to smile and shake China by the hand must never be interpreted to mean that he's forgotten what's between the lines in the India-US military/defence agreement. Such agreements are put in place and are primed to be ACTIVATED at a moment's notice when perceived military threats from a potential enemy force show signs of metamorphosing into rapid deployment forces, jets and submarines literally where your fishermen are fishing. Those Indian fishing trawlers, I can assure you, are doing a heck of a lot more than fishing. A trawler with anti-asdic technology on board can spot a sub, especially a nuclear sub, more than five kilometres away. When an Indian Admiral, a few years ago, took a speed boat ride around Trincomalee Harbour, shortly after explosions ripped out a secret truck load of Chinese explosives in Trincomalee, flattening the Police Station and killing some people, his experienced eye was looking for evidence even back then of Chinese subs deep down in the harbour... WHY? Compelling reasons why Modi's India will back the CBK/Sirisena/Ranil trio to the hilt!
All this puts the last presidential election and today's developments into some sort of logical perspective. We then understand better why Sirisena is playing for time before he and CBK are reasonably sure of victory before calling a general election. The MR UPFA faction can bay all day to the moon, but Sirisena will not call a general election until he is sure the electorate has swung away from MR to the new look SLFP. A revamped Central Committee and islandwide elections organizational structure has also to be in place before he calls a general election. The cleansing out of the CC has run into some flak, but the President seems to be able to respond in a manner that shows he has anticipated these minor hiccups and has contingency plans to retain his growing stranglehold on the emerging new SLFP. No matter what wishful thinkers contend, I find it difficult to see the sacked CC members making, at best, a temporary come back to the CBK/SIRISENA SLFP.
Split in SLFP
Changes in the SLFP 'administered' by Sirisena merely prove my prediction in last week's analysis of a huge split in the SLFP. What Sirisena and CBK are trying to do is to control that split to ensure that they inherit the biggest piece of the SLFP mirror when its shattered pieces fall apart. The vote on the CB Governor's issue proved tha I would not be surprised to see President MS tear up the 100-day programme, and postpone the dissolution of Parliament for June next year, consolidate in the electorate, precipitate the split on the SLFP, have Ranil make more inroads into floating votes and then call a general election. A split SLFP faction in Parliament backed by its leftist riot squad of Vasu, Wimal, Dinesh, Tissa Vitharana et all can at best rouse the rabble in some electorates to create riots here and there in desperate death struggles. Sirisena has been cheek by jowl with these characters in Parliament for decades. He knows what to expect and, I suspect, is more than a match for rabble rousers. And of course we all know who FINANCES these elements. And we also know that India wants the Port City Project out.
The scenario then seems poised to turn very ugly, very soon. Given the known qualities of the antagonists, one looks objectively at the unfolding realities and sees chaos, even anarchy. Violence, planned violence. The university students' protests were just a testing of the waters, a dry run.
The blurred battle lines are getting clearer by the day. It does not take an Einstein to tell you who's on the wrong side of the moral equation.
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Russia opens way to missile deliveries to Iran
World | Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:01pm BST Related: WORLD
Russia opens way to missile deliveries to Iran, starts oil-for-goods swap
MOSCOW | BY GABRIELA BACZYNSKA
(Reuters) - Russia paved the way on Monday for missile system deliveries to Iran and STARTED an oil-for-goods swap, signalling that Moscow may have a head-start in the race to benefit from an eventual lifting of sanctions on Tehran.
The moves come after world powers, including Russia, reached an interim DEAL with Iran this month on curbing its nuclear programme.
The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ending a self-imposed ban on delivering the S-300 anti-missile rocket system to Iran, removing a major irritant between the two countries after Moscow cancelled a corresponding contract in 2010 under pressure from the West.
A senior government official said separately that Russia has STARTED supplying grain, equipment and construction materials to Iran in exchange for crude oil under a barter DEAL.
Sources told Reuters more than a year ago that a DEAL worth up to $20 billion was being discussed and would involve Russia buying up to 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day.
Officials from the two countries have issued contradictory statements since then on whether a DEAL has been signed, but Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Monday one was already being implemented.
"I wanted to draw your attention to the rolling out of the oil-for-goods DEAL, which is on a very significant scale," Ryabkov told a briefing with members of the upper house of parliament on the talks with Iran.
"In exchange for Iranian crude oil supplies, we are delivering certain products. This is not banned or limited under the current sanctions regime."
He declined to give further details. Russia's Agriculture Ministry declined comment and the Energy Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. There was no comment from Iran.
Iran is the third-largest buyer of Russian wheat, and Moscow and Tehran have been discussing the oil-for-goods barter DEAL for more than a year.
Russia hopes to reap economic and trade benefits if a final deal is concluded to build on the framework agreement reached in the Swiss city of Lausanne between Iran and Russia, the
United States, France, Britain, Germany and China.
They have until June 30 to WORK out a detailed technical agreement under which Iran would curb its nuclear programme and allow international control in exchange for a lifting of economic sanctions.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday raised concerns about the missile system sale with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said.
She said, however, that U.S. officials do not think Russia's actions will hurt unity between the major powers in the nuclear talks.
TWO TO TANGO
Lavrov said the agreement in Lausanne wiped out the need for Moscow's ban on the delivery of S-300 and that the system was defensive, hence would pose no threat to Iran's foe, Israel.
"As a result of suspending the contract, we did not receive major sums that we were due. We see no need to continue doing this given progress in talks on Iran's nuclear programme and the absolutely legitimate nature of the forthcoming deal," he said.
The United States and Israel had lobbied Russia to block the missile sale before it did so in 2010, saying the S-300 system could be used to shield Iran's nuclear facilities from possible FUTURE air strikes.
Leonid Ivashov, a retired Russian general who now heads the Moscow-based Centre for Geo-Political Analysis think-tank, said the move was part of a race for future contracts in Iran.
"If we now delay and leave Iran waiting, then tomorrow, when sanctions are fully lifted, Washington and its allies will get Iran's large market," RIA news agency quoted him as saying.
Ryabkov suggested Russia had high hopes that its steady support for Iran would pay off in energy cooperation once international sanctions against Tehran are lifted.
"It takes two to tango. We are ready to provide our services and I am sure they will be pretty advantageous compared to other countries," he said. "We never gave up on Iran in a difficult
situation ... Both for oil and gas, I think the prospects for our cooperation should not be underestimated."
He also reiterated Moscow's view that an arms embargo on Iran should be lifted once a final nuclear DEAL is sealed.
Sanctions have cut Iran's oil exports to about 1.1 million barrels per day from 2.5 million bpd in 2012. Analysts say Iran is unlikely to see a major boost in exports before next year.
One upper house lawmaker asked Ryabkov whether lifting sanctions on Tehran could undermine Russia's position on global energy MARKETS, including as the main gas supplier to Europe.
"I am not CONFIDENT as yet that the Iranian side would be ready to carry out supplies of natural gas from its fields quickly and in large quantities to Europe. This requires infrastructure that is difficult to build," he said.
(Additional reporting by Polina Devitt, Olesya Astakhova, Vladimir Soldatkin and Emily Stephenson Editing by Timothy Heritage, Angus MacSwan and James Dalgleish)
Russia opens way to missile deliveries to Iran, starts oil-for-goods swap
MOSCOW | BY GABRIELA BACZYNSKA
 |
| Iran's President Hassan Rouhani (L) talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as they meet during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Dushanbe September 12, 2014. REUTERS/Mikhail Klimentyev/RIA Novosti/Kremlin |
The moves come after world powers, including Russia, reached an interim DEAL with Iran this month on curbing its nuclear programme.
The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ending a self-imposed ban on delivering the S-300 anti-missile rocket system to Iran, removing a major irritant between the two countries after Moscow cancelled a corresponding contract in 2010 under pressure from the West.
A senior government official said separately that Russia has STARTED supplying grain, equipment and construction materials to Iran in exchange for crude oil under a barter DEAL.
 |
| S-300 anti-missile rocket system |
Officials from the two countries have issued contradictory statements since then on whether a DEAL has been signed, but Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Monday one was already being implemented.
"I wanted to draw your attention to the rolling out of the oil-for-goods DEAL, which is on a very significant scale," Ryabkov told a briefing with members of the upper house of parliament on the talks with Iran.
"In exchange for Iranian crude oil supplies, we are delivering certain products. This is not banned or limited under the current sanctions regime."
He declined to give further details. Russia's Agriculture Ministry declined comment and the Energy Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. There was no comment from Iran.
Iran is the third-largest buyer of Russian wheat, and Moscow and Tehran have been discussing the oil-for-goods barter DEAL for more than a year.
Russia hopes to reap economic and trade benefits if a final deal is concluded to build on the framework agreement reached in the Swiss city of Lausanne between Iran and Russia, the
United States, France, Britain, Germany and China.
They have until June 30 to WORK out a detailed technical agreement under which Iran would curb its nuclear programme and allow international control in exchange for a lifting of economic sanctions.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday raised concerns about the missile system sale with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said.
She said, however, that U.S. officials do not think Russia's actions will hurt unity between the major powers in the nuclear talks.
TWO TO TANGO
Lavrov said the agreement in Lausanne wiped out the need for Moscow's ban on the delivery of S-300 and that the system was defensive, hence would pose no threat to Iran's foe, Israel.
"As a result of suspending the contract, we did not receive major sums that we were due. We see no need to continue doing this given progress in talks on Iran's nuclear programme and the absolutely legitimate nature of the forthcoming deal," he said.
The United States and Israel had lobbied Russia to block the missile sale before it did so in 2010, saying the S-300 system could be used to shield Iran's nuclear facilities from possible FUTURE air strikes.
Leonid Ivashov, a retired Russian general who now heads the Moscow-based Centre for Geo-Political Analysis think-tank, said the move was part of a race for future contracts in Iran.
"If we now delay and leave Iran waiting, then tomorrow, when sanctions are fully lifted, Washington and its allies will get Iran's large market," RIA news agency quoted him as saying.
Ryabkov suggested Russia had high hopes that its steady support for Iran would pay off in energy cooperation once international sanctions against Tehran are lifted.
"It takes two to tango. We are ready to provide our services and I am sure they will be pretty advantageous compared to other countries," he said. "We never gave up on Iran in a difficult
situation ... Both for oil and gas, I think the prospects for our cooperation should not be underestimated."
He also reiterated Moscow's view that an arms embargo on Iran should be lifted once a final nuclear DEAL is sealed.
Sanctions have cut Iran's oil exports to about 1.1 million barrels per day from 2.5 million bpd in 2012. Analysts say Iran is unlikely to see a major boost in exports before next year.
One upper house lawmaker asked Ryabkov whether lifting sanctions on Tehran could undermine Russia's position on global energy MARKETS, including as the main gas supplier to Europe.
"I am not CONFIDENT as yet that the Iranian side would be ready to carry out supplies of natural gas from its fields quickly and in large quantities to Europe. This requires infrastructure that is difficult to build," he said.
(Additional reporting by Polina Devitt, Olesya Astakhova, Vladimir Soldatkin and Emily Stephenson Editing by Timothy Heritage, Angus MacSwan and James Dalgleish)
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