One dead, 32 wounded in suspected terror ramming at bus stop north of Tel Aviv

Police say driver ‘neutralized,’ launch probe into his motive; medics say 8 people were trapped under truck that plowed into crowd at Glilot, near IDF intelligence base

By Emanuel Fabian Follow and ToI Staff Today 26-10-2024, 4:06 pm

A man was killed and 32 people were wounded in a suspected terror ramming attack at a bus stop near Herzliya on Sunday morning — five in serious condition, seven moderately wounded, and 20 lightly hurt.

Police said that the driver who rammed his truck into people at a bus stop outside the IDF’s Glilot base in central Israel, north of Tel Aviv, was shot and “neutralized” by armed civilians in the area.

According to the police’s initial probe, a bus had stopped at the station outside the base to drop off passengers, and then a truck rammed into the stop, hitting the people there.

Hamas put out a statement a short while after the incident, praising the “heroic ramming attack” that was carried out near “Mossad headquarters.”

The Glilot area near Herzliya is home to the Mossad headquarters along with several IDF intelligence units, including the high-profile signals intelligence Unit 8200.

Without taking responsibility for the apparent attack, the terror group said that it was “a natural response to the crimes of the Zionist occupation against our Palestinian people in Gaza, the West Bank and Jerusalem, and its ongoing brutal massacres, especially in the northern Gaza Strip.”

The Magen David Adom emergency service said eight people were trapped under the truck when medics arrived at the bus stop, and other were lying or walking nearby.

Officers and ambulances rushed to the scene, where police cordoned off the area as medics helped the injured and a helicopter hovered above.

Following the attack, Tel Aviv’s Ichilov Hospital said one of the victims of the suspected terror attack was in critical condition. A short while later, the hospital released a statement saying that  doctors had pronounced one victim dead. It was unclear whether he was the same victim who was critically injured.

Many of the injured were senior citizens who had disembarked from a bus ahead of a visit to a nearby museum to mark the national memorial day for those killed in the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre and subsequent war.

Police were probing further details, including the motive of the attack.

In a separate incident in the West Bank on Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces said a Palestinian motorist who tried to carry out a ramming and stabbing attack against IDF troops near the West Bank town of Hizma was shot dead.

According to the IDF, the assailant accelerated his car toward troops of the Binyamin Regional Brigade’s 43rd Battalion, as they were operating near Hizma.

“The terrorist drew a knife… and tried to carry out a stabbing attack,” the IDF said, adding that the soldiers opened fire at the assailant, killing him.

There were no other injuries in the incident.

Police said the Route 437 highway in the area was blocked to traffic following the incident.

The attacks on Sunday came as Israel marked the first anniversary on the Hebrew calendar of Hamas’s October 7 mass onslaught against southern Israel, the worst terror attack in Israel’s history, when 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage to Gaza.

Since then, 41 people, including Israeli security personnel, have been killed in a string of additional terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank. Another six members of the security forces were killed in clashes with terror operatives in the West Bank.

In mid-October, a policeman was killed and four people wounded when a terrorist opened fire along the Route 4 highway north of the coastal city of Ashdod, and a man was killed in a terror-stabbing rampage in Hadera the previous week. Seven people were killed and at least eight wounded in a shooting and stabbing attack in Jaffa on October 1, just minutes before Iran launched a massive ballistic missile attack on Israel.

Agencies contributed to this report.

Plot to attack Israelis backed by a foreign power

 

Plot to attack Israelis backed by a foreign power

Sunday Times, October 27, 2024

The Police have averted what would otherwise have turned out to be a massacre of Israelis in a synagogue in Arugam Bay on the southeast coast.

The attacks had been planned for a day between October 19 and 24 during a largely attended religious event that was taking place, according to intelligence sources. They said investigations were underway to ascertain to what extent a foreign power was backing the plot to carry out the attack, including money spent, any possible training and other support they may have given.

The reason behind the planned attack was to protest Israeli Defence Forces military offensives in Gaza and Lebanon where thousands of civilians including children are being slaughtered. The war began after Hamas militants carried out an attack inside Israel where 1,200, mostly civilians were killed and 250 more were taken hostage on October 7, last year.

A dangerous outcome of such an attack would have been the adverse impact on Muslim villages that are near Arugam Bay. The closest town is Pottuvil where half the population are Muslims.  It is five kilometres or 3.8 miles from this popular coastal resort. The blame would have been placed on the Muslims there and the perpetrators or their masterminds going unnoticed, at least for some time. Similarly, there were fears that attacks were possible in the southern towns of Ahangama, Ahungalla and other coastal areas frequented by Israelis.

Sri Lankan agencies uncovered information on a plot to attack the Arugam Bay synagogue (the house of worship and communal centre for Jewish congregation), in early October. However, the information they had at that time was very sketchy and they were not clear on the details of the plot. Hence, a group of suspected persons had been placed under surveillance. Thereafter two Sri Lankans, one from a Colombo suburb, another from the north, and a Maldivian were arrested. The latter is the son of a Maldivian father and Sri Lankan mother. They are now being held on detention orders under the Prevention of Terrorism Act. The Maldivian national, a Sinhala speaker, is said to have possessed two mobile phones and held several addresses. Police are on the lookout for two more people who are known to be abroad. They have travelled on many occasions to Sri Lanka. All these people are said to have been serving prison sentences in a local jail for varied offences. Defence Secretary, Air Vice Marshal Sampath Thuyacontha, this week had a meeting with Maldivian High Commissioner Masood Imad on matters related to the suspect from his country. No details were immediately available. A resident of Mawanella has been arrested separately after he was found loitering around the house of the Israeli Consul General at Nedimale, Dehiwala. He is being questioned.

Arugam Bay has remained a popular destination for tourists who are attracted by the seas known to be the best for surfing. More than half the tourists are said to be Israelis. In recent years, synagogues have sprung up in the area and restaurants serving kosher food (or food fit or proper as it relates to Jewish dietary law) are not only serving their needs, but some are also receiving payment in foreign currency. One synagogue is now ending construction not far away from a Muslim Mosque. Television footage screened by local channels this week showed Arugam Bay scenes which were reminiscent of the separatist war days with a heavy presence of Police Special Task Force commandos and their armoured patrol vehicles. In other areas where attacks were feared, heavy military security has also been placed in addition to the presence of armed police.

The arrests by the Police on October 7 and the investigations thereafter had remained secret. The reason was the absence of a full picture of the plot by the relevant authorities. Resultantly, the parties concerned, particularly Israel and the United States, have not been apprised of the development. Rather unfortunately, with a new government in office only for a month, there had been an unprecedented element of amateurism that had crept in. Otherwise, an early appraisal would have resulted in a twofold benefit—One: valuable intelligence inputs from those countries, known to be the best in the world, would have been immensely useful. Two: A joint investigation below the radar until the plot was completely unravelled. That would not only have saved much embarrassment for Sri Lanka worldwide but most importantly avoided a bad fallout on the tourism industry. Now, they are all fully geared to receive tourists for the winter season.

The United States Embassy in Colombo posted on its website the threats faced by their nationals visiting Sri Lanka. It said, “The Embassy received credible information warning of an attack targeting popular tourist locations in the Arugam Bay area. Due to the serious risk posed by this threat, the Embassy imposed a travel restriction on Embassy personnel for Arugam Bay effective immediately and until further notice.

“U.S. citizens are strongly urged to avoid the Arugam Bay area until further notice.

“Actions to Take:

• Report all suspicious activity and emergencies to local authorities (119).
• Always maintain vigilance and be aware of your surroundings. Trust your gut, if a situation doesn’t feel right, get out of it.
• Always have some form of communication on you (i.e. cell phone).
• Monitor local media for news and updates.“

• 
  

The US Embassy warning received worldwide publicity. This was followed immediately by other members of the so-called Five Eyes, besides the US – the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Even their adversary Russia joined in the task. Immediately thereafter, the Reuters news agency reported: “JERUSALEM/COLOMBO, Oct 23 (Reuters) – Israel’s national security council called on Israelis on Wednesday to immediately leave some tourist areas in southern Sri Lanka over the threat of a possible terrorist attack. The agency said the warning pertained to the area of Arugam Bay and beaches in the south and west of Sri Lanka, and stemmed from “current information about a terrorist threat focused on tourist areas and beaches.

“The security council did not specify the exact nature of the threat and called on Israelis in the rest of Sri Lanka to be cautious and refrain from holding large gatherings in public areas.

“The Israeli security establishment … is in close contact with the security authorities in Sri Lanka and is following the developments.”

It is against this backdrop that the government went into action. Cabinet spokesperson Vijitha Herath held a special news briefing from the office of the Ministry of Public Security on October 24. He holds that portfolio. He said that on Tuesday, foreign intelligence agencies had warned of a potential threat. The matter was taken up at the National Security Council (NSC) which has been meeting periodically. Security have been strengthened in Arugam Bay and other tourist areas like Bandarawela, Ella, Matara, Weligama and Ahungalla. Warning that people should not use this situation to “intimidate others for political gain,” the Minister said foreign countries were “already satisfied with the measures we have taken.”

He claimed they have gained confidence on their part to send their citizens to Sri Lanka and justified their travel advisories since they were mandatory “by a diplomatic mission in any country.” However, there has been no stoppage of tourists, he said. He asserted that “we have already brought the situation under control. Hence, there is no need for foreign tourists to panic.” He also declared that the picture the government had at the beginning was sketchy. Herath denied media reports that an Indian intelligence agency had provided the government reports warning of an attack. “This is false,” he said. Despite Minister Herath’s assertions, the warnings from the US as well as their four allies remain on their websites. So does the one from Russia.

The threats to the tourism industry from the advisories of the United States and Israel and their allies cannot be taken lightly. Those wanting to avenge Israeli atrocities on civilians will continue to look out for soft targets. It is noteworthy that Minister Herath has set the record right from the government’s position. However, that seems only the tip of the iceberg. No effort has still been made to meet those key players in the local tourism industry to obtain their views on how best the situation could be neutralized. Thus the views of their foreign principals are also not known.  Sri Lanka diplomatic missions overseas have also not known how to react since no instructions have gone out. Nor has there been a formal official government statement. This is particularly in the light of the wide publicity worldwide the travel warnings from the two countries and their allies have received. That an adverse impact on the tourism industry would by extension affect the country’s economy is no secret. It comes at a time when the new government is engaged in an exercise to change Sri Lanka still being classified as “bankrupt.”

One is reminded of the events that played out as results of the presidential election kept coming in during the early hours of September 22. When the news spread that Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP) was on the road to victory, reports circulated that Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe was preparing his letter of resignation. One of those who heard this was a former United National Party (UNP) stalwart. He telephoned two NPP leaders, Vijitha Herath and Bimal Ratnayake. Both responded to him within an hour. They sought his good offices to urge Governor Weerasinghe not to leave. “What about the Treasury Secretary?” asked Weerasinghe. The stalwart said he would phone him as well. There was another round of calls. Both said they were staying behind. Last week, the duo was in the Sri Lanka delegation to Washington DC for talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  Its Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that they were encouraged by the commitment of Sri Lankan authorities to continue the reforms to safeguard the hard-won gains under the IMF programme. An IMF team is due in Colombo for talks on another tranche of its Extended Fund Facility (EFF)⍐.

“I can now confirm that we have concluded the Israeli response to Iran’s attacks against Israel,”-IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari

In this image taken from video released by the IDF on October 26, 2024, military spokesman
Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari announces that the IDF is conducting strikes on military targets
in Iran. (Israel Defense Forces via AP)

After strikes, IDF spokesman warns Iran not to ‘make mistake’ of further escalating

By Emanuel Fabian

Following the completion of Israel’s strikes in Iran, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari in an English-language statement warns that if Iran was to “make the mistake” of escalating further, Israel would respond.

“I can now confirm that we have concluded the Israeli response to Iran’s attacks against Israel,” he says in a video statement disturbed to foreign media.

“We conducted targeted and precise strikes on military targets in Iran — thwarting immediate threats to the State of Israel. The Israel Defense Forces has fulfilled its mission,” Hagari says.

“If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation — we will be obligated to respond,” he continues.

“Our message is clear: All those who threaten the State of Israel and seek to drag the region into a wider escalation — will pay a heavy price. We demonstrated today that we have both the capability and the resolve to act decisively — and we are prepared — on offense and defense — to defend the State of Israel and the people of Israel,” Hagari adds.

US official says Austin held phone call with Gallant

By Reuters

WASHINGTON — US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a call with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, a US defense official says, after Israel announced strikes on targets in Iran.

The US official, who speaks on condition of anonymity, doesn’t immediately provide details on Austin and Gallant’s conversation, including what they discussed, how long the call was or what time it took place. 

A handout photo released by his office on October 26, 2024, shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting
with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF commanders in the bunker below the Kirya military base
in Tel Aviv. (Avi Ohayun/GPO)

Israel launches ‘precise strikes’ on Iran military sites weeks after missile attack

Army says airstrikes a response ‘to months of continuous attacks’; White House supports Israeli ‘self-defense’; report says nuclear facilities and oil fields not being targeted

By Emanuel Fabian, Follow ToI Staff and Agencies Today 26-10-2024, 5:09 am Updated at 5:34 am 

Israel announced early Saturday that it had launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iran weeks after the Islamic Republic’s massive ballistic missile barrage, with the military saying the “precise strikes” targeted Iranian military sites.

After reports of explosions near Tehran began to emerge around 2:15 a.m. local time, the Israel Defense Forces released a statement confirming that it was attacking Iran in response to “months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the State of Israel.”

A second wave of strikes was reported several hours later, with AFP reporters saying continuous explosions and light trails were visible across the sky in central Tehran following the fresh blasts.

“The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since October 7th – on seven fronts – including direct attacks from Iranian soil,” the IDF said. “Like every other sovereign country in the world, the State of Israel has the right and the duty to respond.”

The IDF added that its “defensive and offensive capabilities are fully mobilized,” and that it “will do whatever necessary to defend the State of Israel and the people of Israel.”

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said there were no current changes to instructions for civilians, as the strikes were being carried out in Iran.

There was no immediate comment from Israeli political leaders, though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office released a picture of him huddled with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and top IDF generals in the bunker below the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv as the strikes were carried out. It later said he held a security assessment with Gallant and the heads of the IDF, Mossad and Shin Bet.

The IDF said Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi was also below the Kirya to command the strikes from the Israeli Air Force’s command center, with the chief of the IAF, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar.

The extent of the damage from the strikes was not immediately clear. Iranian state television claimed the blasts heard around Tehran were due to the “activation of the air defense system” against an Israeli attack.

“The loud blasts heard around Tehran were related to the activation of the air defense system against the actions of Zionist regime which attacked three locations outside of Tehran city,” state TV reported, citing officials of the Tehran province air defense.

An Israeli source told the Ynet news that the Iranian claim was “a lie. It was a total failure, [there were] zero interceptions.”

According to an Israeli official quoted by NBC, Israel was not targeting Iranian nuclear facilities or oil fields and was focusing on military targets.

“We’re targeting things that might have threatened us in the past or could do in the future,” the official said.

The Biden Administration has been urging Israel not to strike such targets, while backing Israel’s right to respond to Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack.

An American official told Reuters that Israel notified the US ahead of the strikes, stressing the United States was not involved in the operation.

“We understand that Israel is conducting targeted strikes against military targets in Iran as an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1st,” said White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett.

Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported that several military bases in the Tehran area were targeted in Israeli strikes. It specified that several bases in the western and southern areas of the capital were attacked.

Iranian media also said there were no fires or explosions reported at a key refinery south of the capital. “There are no reports of fire or explosions at a Tehran refinery,” Tasnim news agency reported.

Iranian state TV said operations at Tehran’s airports, including Imam Khomeini International airport, were continuing as usual.

Sources quoted by the Tasnim news agency threatened that Iran was prepared to respond to any Israeli “aggression.”

“There is no doubt that Israel will face a proportional reaction for any action it takes,” Tasnim quoted the sources as saying.

The Washington Post reported the Israeli strikes were expected to last several more hours, with a person briefed on Israel’s military plans telling the newspaper that among the military sites being targeted were air defenses and missile production plants.

The attack is expected to be a one-night affair, ABC News reported. ABC also cited a source who said there were no Israeli casualties or damage to warplanes reported thus far.

Iran had braced for an Israeli reprisal after its latest direct attack on Israel, in which it fired 200 ballistic missiles that sent most of Israel to bomb shelters on October 1, killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank, and caused damage in residential areas and at military bases — although the IDF said that the attack had no operational impact.

Iran said that the attack came in response to strikes in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of the terror group’s senior leadership last month, as well as the killing of Hamas politburo leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, which has been widely blamed on Israel despite its silence on the matter⍐.

BRICS summit: Kazan declaration

BRICS summit: Key takeaways from Kazan declaration 🔺

By Reuters October 24, 2024

MOSCOW, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Below are the key points from the Kazan declaration, opens new tab issued by the BRICS group after a summit in Russia.

ON UKRAINE:

"We emphasize that all states should act consistently with the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter in their entirety and interrelation. We note with appreciation relevant proposals of mediation and good offices, aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy."

ON THE MIDDLE EAST:

"We reiterate our grave concern at the deterioration of the situation and humanitarian crisis in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, in particular the unprecedented escalation of violence in the Gaza Strip and in West Bank as a result of the Israeli military offensive, which led to mass killing and injury of civilians, forced displacement and widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure."

"We express alarm over the situation in Southern Lebanon. We condemn the loss of civilian lives and the immense damage to civilian infrastructure resulting from attacks by Israel in residential areas in Lebanon and call for immediate cessation of military acts."

ON WESTERN SANCTIONS:

"We are deeply concerned about the disruptive effect of unlawful unilateral coercive measures, including illegal sanctions, on the world economy, international trade, and the achievement of the sustainable development goals."

ON THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM'S REFORM:

"We underscore the need to reform the current international financial architecture to meet the global financial challenges including global economic governance to make the international financial architecture more inclusive and just."

ON BRICS GRAIN EXCHANGE:

"We welcome the initiative of the Russian side to establish a grain (commodities) trading platform within BRICS (the BRICS Grain Exchange) and to subsequently develop it including expanding it to other agricultural sectors."

ON BRICS CROSS-BORDER PAYMENT SYSTEM:

"We recognise the widespread benefits of faster, low cost, more efficient, transparent, safe and inclusive cross-border payment instruments built upon the principle of minimizing trade barriers and non-discriminatory access. We welcome the use of local currencies in financial transactions between BRICS countries and their trading partners."

ON BRICS CLEAR DEPOSITARY:

"We agree to discuss and study the feasibility of establishment of an independent cross-border settlement and depositary infrastructure, BRICS Clear, an initiative to complement the existing financial market infrastructure, as well as BRICS independent reinsurance capacity, including BRICS (Re)Insurance Company, with participation on a voluntary basis."

ON FINANCIAL INNOVATION:

"We welcome the BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism (ICM) focus on facilitating and expanding innovative financial practices and approaches for projects and programmes, including finding acceptable mechanisms of financing in local currencies."

ON THE IMF:

"We reaffirm our commitment to maintaining a strong and effective Global Financial Safety Net with a quota-based and adequately resourced IMF at its centre."

ON G20:

"We recognise the importance of the continued and productive functioning of the G20, based on consensus with a focus on result-oriented outcomes."

ON PREVENTION OF FUTURE PANDEMICS:

"We support the initiatives of the BRICS R&D Vaccine Center, further development of the BRICS Integrated Early Warning System for preventing mass infectious diseases risks."

ON BIG CATS:

"While appreciating the efforts of our countries to preserve rare species and noting the high vulnerability of big cats, we take note of the Republic of India’s initiative to create an International Big Cats Alliance and encourage BRICS countries

to work together to make further contributions to the conservation of big cats."⍐

NPP Poised for Victory in Sri Lanka’s Parliamentary Election

The opposition has not fully understood the public demand for change.

By Rathindra Kuruwita October 23, 2024 The Diplomat

Less than two months after Sri Lankans elected a new president, they are set to vote in parliamentary elections on November 14. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) seems poised for victory.

The NPP’s rivals are warning voters against voting for the NPP, drawing attention to the risks of giving the coalition too much power. They are calling on voters to ensure a strong opposition.  For example, former President Ranil Wickremesinghe has urged voters to elect experienced politicians from other parties. He warned that the NPP could dismantle the economy.

Based on the presidential election result, some are predicting that the general election will throw up a hung parliament. Dissanayake secured 43 percent of the vote in the presidential election. If the NPP gets a similar percentage of votes in the parliamentary election, it could fall short of the 113 seats needed for a simple majority in the 225-member parliament.

However, it seems almost certain that the NPP will secure more votes in the upcoming election than in the presidential election.

Several politicians and experts said that the presidential election was primarily about the economy.

But Dissanayake’s win was also a reflection of widespread anger toward the entrenched political establishment. Those prioritizing economic stability likely voted for Wickremesinghe or Sajith Premadasa, as both their parties, the United National Party (UNP) and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), ran campaigns focused on fearmongering.

During the campaign, fake videos misrepresenting the words of NPP members and warning voters that the NPP would confiscate their bank deposits, land, and extra vehicles circulated on social media. There was also an organized effort to convince the public that Dissanayake would be rejected by the international community, without whose support Sri Lanka could not finalize debt restructuring or attract foreign direct investment. These tactics particularly influenced middle-aged and senior voters, who refrained from voting for the NPP due to these fears.

The fact that 4.3 million Sri Lankans voted for Dissanayake shows that a large portion of the population was exhausted by the existing political culture in Sri Lanka. Wickremesinghe may have stabilized the economy, albeit at the cost of future growth and a decline in living standards, but he failed to address the broader demand for political reform — a key issue raised by protesters who ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022. Instead of responding to calls for greater checks and balances, reduced corruption, and increased transparency, Wickremesinghe’s administration oversaw a rise in corruption and crime, with important agreements being signed with foreign companies behind closed doors. His MPs also shielded corrupt colleagues, engaging in practices previously unheard of in Sri Lankan politics, such as the import of substandard medicines under the emergency procurement system.

Like Rajapaksa before him, Wickremesinghe failed to gauge the public mood, and as a result, those opposed to Dissanayake were left with only fearmongering as their strategy.

A month has now passed since Dissanayake assumed office, and the dire predictions by their political opponents mentioned above have not materialized. The average Sri Lankan is satisfied with the steps the NPP government has taken so far. Farmers and fishermen have received fuel and fertilizer subsidies, pensioners have seen a modest pay rise, and underutilized land has been distributed to farmers who will work it under the guidance of the Department of Agriculture. There have been no shortages of goods, and many believe that corrupt individuals will soon be brought to justice. As promised, the NPP has continued with the IMF program, and diplomatic relations with Sri Lanka’s key partners remain cordial.

Given these developments, it is likely that many who did not vote for Dissanayake in September, particularly Wickremesinghe’s supporters, will now vote for the NPP in November.

Wickremesinghe, along with many senior political figures, has announced that he will not contest the general election. The Rajapaksa family has similarly opted out. This leaves Sajith Premadasa’s SJB as the main challenger to the NPP.

However, the SJB’s position heading into the November 14 election is significantly weaker than it was during the presidential race for two reasons. First, the party, which remained united during the presidential campaign due to a belief that Premadasa had a chance of winning, has begun to fracture since his defeat. In mid-October, Hirunika Premachandra, leader of the SJB women’s wing, resigned following an argument with Premadasa’s wife.

SJB MP Ajith Mannapperuma also announced that he would not contest the general election, despite figuring on the Gampaha District Nomination List. Mannapperuma explained that his decision was prompted by his removal as Gampaha District Organizer without prior consultation, just 24 hours after signing his nomination papers.

Earlier, popular actress Damitha Abeyratne, who played a key role in Premadasa’s presidential campaign, was denied a nomination due to a dispute with SJB Ratnapura District leader Hesha Vithanage. These internal rifts have disillusioned SJB supporters.

More crucially, the SJB leadership has not fully grasped why they lost the presidential election. Many within the party believe they were defeated because Wickremesinghe took a significant portion of their votes. They point to the fact that Dissanayake’s margin of victory over Premadasa was 1.3 million votes, while Wickremesinghe secured 2.2 million. SJB MPs believe that had Wickremesinghe not contested, those votes would have gone to Premadasa. Now that Wickremesinghe is not running in the general election, they are convinced they will attract those 2.2 million votes and potentially match or even surpass the NPP’s vote count on November 14.

However, analysts who have studied voting patterns suggest that this simplistic arithmetic is unlikely to hold.

Uditha Devapriya, chief international relations analyst at Factum, an Asia-Pacific-focused foreign policy think tank based in Colombo, told The Diplomat that Wickremesinghe’s voters are unlikely to support Premadasa this time.

“Many Sri Lankan politicians mistakenly believe that public sentiment can be reduced to simple arithmetic. During the run-up to the presidential election, many SJB members insisted that it would be impossible for the NPP, which secured only 3 percent of the vote in the 2019 presidential election, to surpass them, given that they had received over five million votes. But we all saw what happened,” he said.

“We must also remember that Premadasa received significant support from the North and East in September — those were not SJB votes but Tamil National Alliance (TNA) votes. The TNA will contest separately in this election. It’s likely that the NPP will see a substantial increase in its share of the Northern and Eastern vote in November,” Devapriya added.

The inability of the NPP’s opponents to understand the public’s desire for change has severely undermined their chances. By continuing to view elections through outdated frameworks, they have failed to address the electorate’s demand for new political practices, leaving them ill-prepared to compete against the NPP in the upcoming election⍐.

NPP says strong govt. required to carry out its programme

 NPP says strong govt. required to carry out its programme

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake yesterday (23) said at a public rally in Polonnaruwa that the electorate should help the National People’s Power (NPP) to build a strong government that could face whatever challenges.

Addressing the rally held in support of NPP candidates contesting the Polonnaruwa district, President Dissanayake dismissed calls for building up of a strong Opposition.

Referring to their triumph at the Presidential Election, President Dissanayake said that the NPP needed an overwhelming parliamentary majority to implement planned programmes to meet the public needs⍐.