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Monday, January 13, 2025

US tightens its grip on AI chip flows across the globe

US tightens its grip on AI chip flows across the globe

Heat over NPP promises made on campaign trail but not kept

 The gulf between what the National People’s Power (NPP) said on the campaign trail and what it is saying now in government, was repeatedly highlighted by the opposition when Parliament debated the country’s “Mid-Year Fiscal Position Report – 2024.”By Sandun Jayawardana  The Sunday Times 12-01-2025

The government drew attention to the sacrifices made by ordinary people in the country’s economic recovery from the depths of bankruptcy. The opposition though, countered that the government had not followed through with many of the pledges it had made to provide relief to those same people. Opposition MPs challenged the government to introduce these measures in the upcoming budget.



Presenting the adjournment motion on Tuesday (7), NPP National List MP Dr. Najith Indika noted that as per the mid-year fiscal report’s summary, the economic growth rate had improved significantly compared to its situation during the same period in 2023. The economic growth rate, which was -7.3% in 2023, had improved to 5% by the first quarter of 2024. Many sectors had recorded growth while inflation had reduced from 1.3% in 2023 to -0.5% in 2024. The budget deficit had narrowed from Rs. 1242 billion to Rs. 598 billion and overall revenue had gone up from Rs. 1314 billion to Rs. 1860 billion. Tax revenue had gone up from Rs. 1198 billion to Rs. 1709 billion – an increase of 42%.


While the overall picture in the report clearly points to the economy having significantly improved from where it was in mid 2022, when Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy, what should not be forgotten is that the country’s economic crisis was a “man-made disaster” brought about by the politicians in power till then, but for which ordinary people had to pay a very high price, Dr. Indika stressed.


“People dropped dead in queues. Many left the country. Families broke up as a result. Hospitals didn’t have medicines and the number of children dropping out of school increased. The crisis became a social tragedy. So it was the public that paid the price for this economic recovery. We need to remember them with respect,” he told the House.


Seconding the motion, NPP National List MP Lakmali Hemachandra observed that there is an ongoing dialogue regarding who should get the credit for the country’s recovery from bankruptcy. While it is good that such discussions are taking place, she emphasised on the need to acknowledge that the recovery owed a lot to the immense sacrifices made by the vast majority of ordinary Sri Lankans.  


The report itself offers insight into how much people suffered, she said, pointing out that for example, the amount spent on welfare programmes in government schools had reduced by 30% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The amount spent on school text books had been reduced by 70% compared to 2023. “Who would have borne the burden of these expenses when the government reduced its spending on education? It would have been the parents of the children, especially the mothers. Some may have been forced to quit their jobs and stay at home full-time to look after their children, or they may have gone abroad to work in high-risk jobs,” she said.


While the government is speaking of the need to acknowledge the sacrifices and hardships undergone by ordinary Sri Lankans in helping to take the country towards economic recovery, it is yet to honour many of the promises it made on the election stage to provide relief to those people, said Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) Colombo District MP Dr. Harsha De Silva. He pointed out that the NPP’s own manifesto had criticised the “destructive economic policy” of previous governments. If that is the case, he questioned how the new government could continue with the same model, which is what they were now doing. The SJB MP said he expected the government to introduce a new programme going forward.


He recalled that the NPP’s manifesto had pledged to increase the annual tax threshold for individual income tax from Rs. 1.2 million to Rs. 2.4 million. Many professionals voted for the NPP based on this pledge, but the government is now saying it cannot be done and that they can only raise the income tax free threshold from Rs. 100, 000 a month to Rs. 150, 000. In order to offset the losses from that decision, the government has raised Withholding Tax from 5% to 10%, but there is no mention anywhere in the NPP manifesto about raising Withholding Tax, the MP noted.


While the NPP pledged in its manifesto to introduce a 0% Value Added Tax (VAT) rate for food items, the government had already sent several orders under the Special Commodity Levy Act to the Committee on Public Finance for consideration. Accordingly, the government was asking for approval to continue the previous policy of imposing taxes on all imported food items including lentils, tinned fish and onions, Dr. De Silva further noted. “You can say various things and lay the blame on many people, but there is a huge contradiction between what you said on the campaign stage and what you are telling us now,” he told the government.


Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa meanwhile, questioned the government if the mandate it received from the people included continuing as it is with the programme agreed between the previous government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “The statement they made before the election about conducting a new debt sustainability analysis and entering into a new agreement with the IMF has been smashed into the ground,” he alleged, accusing the government of treating the people’s mandate with contempt.


Overall, while the mid-year fiscal position report has shown marked improvements in achieving economic targets, social indicators show that the disparity in the distribution of wealth has widened, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Prof. Anil Jayantha Fernando told Parliament. “The economic policies adopted by previous governments eventually led to the country’s bankruptcy, but they tried to hide their role in the collapse, claiming it was due to the COVID pandemic. This was a myth. They then told the people they were the ones best placed to effect an economic recovery.”


He added the NPP government fully recognises the limits it has to adhere to when dealing with the IMF.


This week also saw the government tabling the Appropriation Bill 2025 to Parliament for the First Reading. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is scheduled to make his Budget Speech to Parliament on February 17. Meanwhile, the government also tabled the Local Authorities Elections (Special Provisions) Bill, which paves the way to cancel previous nomination lists for the long-delayed local government elections and call for fresh nominations.


Parliament will reconvene on January 21, with a two-day debate on the government’s “Clean Sri Lanka” programme to commence on that day.⍐

NPP's Plans to attract foreign investments

 

Plans to attract foreign investments

Single window system created to provide all facilities to exporters

- Minister Sunil Handunneththi January 12, 2025  By Uditha Kumarasinghe


Minister of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development Sunil Handunneththi in an interview with the Sunday Observer shared his perspectives on a wide range of issues facing the industries and SME sectors and elaborated on his plans to attract foreign investments to develop the sectors. The Minister said they have created a single window system to provide all facilities to exporters. They have educated potential investors and unlike in the past, the investors need not run after politicians and offer them bribes to get their projects going.

Excerpts of the interview


Q: What are the steps being taken under the election pledges and manifesto of the NPP to develop industries in Sri Lanka?

A: We hope to strengthen the local production economy and create wide public participation for it. What happened in the past was that instead of strengthening the local economy, more room was given to encourage imports thereby weakening the local economy. These are two different policy directions completely. The turning point is how we can make value addition to the agricultural, industrial and service-oriented products in the country. Sometimes, we have to go against the existing rules and regulations as foreign goods and services have been encouraged. Such moves had discouraged local goods and services.

At present, our gem industry is facing this crisis. Gems are largely imported from countries such as Madagascar, Kenya and Mozambique. Such imported raw gemstones are processed in Sri Lanka and reintroduced to the export market. However, VAT is imposed on such gems which are processed here but VAT is not charged for imported processed gemstones. Therefore, the price of the gems in the international market is less than our local prices.

This applies to sugar as well. The tax is not imposed on imported white sugar but VAT is imposed on locally produced brown sugar. As a result, a kilogram of brown sugar is sold at Rs.360. There is an institutional network which produces brown sugar such as Pelwatte, Sevanagala, Gal Oya and Ethimale. These industries have provided employment to farmers and contribute to uplift the economy of nearly 500,000 people. However, the policies implemented in the past had weakened this process. There is an issue and we have to rectify this policy error.

According to the IMF agreement, VAT has to be imposed on all goods. Through that they expect to increase the Government’s revenue. If the VAT is exempted from some goods such as gems, the Government can get more income rather than imposing the VAT.

Locally manufactured products have to compete with the quality of imported goods. For example, Rs.20 tax is imposed on locally manufactured safety matches. However, lighters are available in the market at Rs. 20. Goods which are equal to the tax of a safety match are freely available in the market and this is the issue. Our mandate is based on increasing national production and now we are taking policy decisions in this regard. The impact caused by the old policies has not yet been done away completely. We are now in the process of removing their adverse impact and formulating industrial policies in accordance with the new mandate.

Q: Do you have any special plans to develop the SME sector?

A: Definitely. The key objective of our Ministry is to develop the SME sector. At present, all small- and large-scale institutions such as National Crafts Council, Laksala, Salusala, Small Entrepreneurial Division (SED), National Entrepreneurial Development Authority (NEDA), Industrial Development Board (IDB) and Export Development Board (EDB) which help to develop the SME sector are under our ministry purview. This means that we have the institutional framework to manufacture goods until they are introduced to the foreign market. We have several credit schemes to assist those who have faced hardships to continue their industries. At present, many entrepreneurs and industrialists have gone to the crib and turned into the level of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) but that is not a wilful default.

Entrepreneurs had to face a series of issues in the recent past due to Covid-19 pandemic, increase in bank interest rates, lack of raw materials and import restrictions. Now we have formulated a system to provide them loans and uplift them. However, the recommendations by the Ministry are not accepted by the banks. Banks have the responsibility of recovering loans and they only provide loans to those who are running their business well. They don’t provide loans to those who have entrepreneurial skills but are not in a position to produce any collateral. There is a risk of granting a loan to such a person but somebody must take that risk. If the Ministry takes that risk and facilitates as the guarantor, banks don’t provide loans to such entrepreneurs to develop their industries. Steps are being taken by the Ministry to resolve these issues.

The National Productivity Secretariat is an important institution which comes under our ministry and it didn’t operate properly during the recent past. At present, we have drafted a Cabinet paper to declare 2025 as the National Productivity Year and make the assessment in 2026.

During this year, we will take measures to implement productivity criteria in all state institutions. It will be made mandatory to all state institutions and enterprises to act in accordance with our productivity criteria and KPIs set out.


Q: Industries faced a big setback owing to the Covid-19 pandemic and also the 2022 economic crisis. What are the steps being taken to revive such industries which have gone bankrupt during those periods?

A: Under our umbrella, we would facilitate basic requirements such as working capital, technical assistance and introduce products to the export market. At present SED, NEDA, IDB, EDB and the division of providing bank loans to entrepreneurs are making collaborative efforts in this regard.

We have 20 sectoral policy divisions such as apparel, fisheries, manufacturing and automobile, spices, confectionery and the construction sector. They will formulate the policies and the Ministry will take steps to implement them. The role of the ministry is to play the facilitators’ role to assist those who have engaged in various industry sectors to overcome their hardships and move forward.

Q: Regarding the development of entrepreneurship, are you considering moves to integrate entrepreneurship into the school and university curriculum?

A: We should make collaborative efforts. There is no use of training entrepreneurs only to sit for examinations and they should be brought into the practical level. For example, we have the Sri Lanka Institute of Textile and Apparel (SLITA) for the textile and apparel sector. We hope to upgrade its curriculum to the level of a degree awarding institution. We also have the National Design Centre and we should affiliate it with the Moratuwa University. The EDB should also be connected with the Technical Colleges.

SED, NEDA, IDB and EDB officials are at Divisional Secretariats countrywide but the people are not aware of it. An entrepreneur should commence an industry after consulting and getting expertise from these officials. At present, our industrial zones are in an isolated situation. There are so many industries in one particular industrial zone. Our plan is to introduce one industry for each zone. We also intend to set up a zone based in Colombo for the gem and jewellery industry sector which would operate round the clock. There should be a separate zone for the apparel industry as well. We have also drawn up plans to set up a chemical zone in Paranthan.

Q: Those running many industries don’t know how to enter the export market. Is there a program that helps them diversify their businesses into the export market?

A: We have created a single window system to provide all facilities to exporters. Such a system was not available in the past and we have now commenced it. The EDB has trained officers for this purpose and we have identified their district level officers. We should strictly consider which product should be given priority in our exports. The biggest issue faced is the industries cannot find markets.

There are emerging markets such as the Middle East where we can promote our own identity. There is a big market in the Middle East for Sri Lankan tea, rubber-based products and spices. Some of our agricultural products can also be introduced to the international market through industrialisation.

Q: What are the plans to get foreign investments into local industries and SME sector?

A: We have completed its initial step. We have educated investors that they don’t need to give any commissions or bribes. Soliciting bribes was the key reason for not getting investments into our industries. Now the investors don’t need to meet politicians and offer them bribes. The second factor was the inordinate delays where the investors had to wait for several years until the approval process was completed.

At present, we are taking steps to turn it into a more flexible and easier process. Thirdly, there is a complexity of our tax policies. Taxes have to be paid before that particular industry commences and we are taking steps to overcome that situation. We have taken steps to make this process easier through the Science and Technology Ministry and Digital Economy Ministry. We have decided to call EOIs through an open tender procedure to some sectors such as Eppawala Phosphate, Kahatagaha graphite and Pulmudai mineral sand.

It is the people who have safeguarded most of the institutions which are planned to be closed down. It had been listed to sell most of the institutions such as Kahatagaha graphite, BCC, Paranthan chemical factory, Pelwatte and the Sevanagala sugar factories which come under the purview of the Industries Ministry. However, the employees of those institutions worked hard to safeguard those institutions. We have decided to restart the Valaichchenai paper mill and our target is to provide the country’s paper requirements through this. We have called upon all Government institutions to provide their waste paper to us and we would recycle them and convert them into newsprints and other stationery. At present, we have commenced the modernisation of the paper mill for this purpose. Under the Clean Sri Lanka Program, we hope to set up waste paper collecting centres at each Government institution by March this year.

We don’t need to import cement when the Sri Lanka Cement Corporation commences the manufacture of cement. Arrangements have been made to set up cement factories in Puttalam, Mannar and Elephant Pass. The private sector can compete with us. What happened in the past was that the Government didn’t compete with the private sector and the Government voluntarily accepted the defeat. Now the private sector has to get ready to compete with the Government in the market. The Pelwatte and Sevanagala sugar factories will commence to produce brown sugar using new technology. Ethanol is a byproduct of sugar. In future, we hope to produce ethanol at a lower price. When sugar production is increased, its byproduct of ethanol will also be increased so that we would be able to manufacture and introduce a liquor brand to the market at a lower price. At present, 250,000 litres of illicit liquor is consumed by the people per day.

Q: Some industries are worried about the tax burden placed as a result of the IMF agreement. Will it be possible to reduce the tax burden on the industrial and SME sector to encourage them further?

A: This has become an issue for us. As far as I know, the IMF has not imposed any conditions recommending this percentage of tax should be imposed on that particular item. The IMF in its recommendations has said that the Government has to increase its revenue and manage the expenditure. If we can show that Government revenue can be increased by lifting the VAT on some products, then the problem will be sorted out.

This problem doesn’t arise when some goods which are subjected to VAT are exported. Then we should find the export market. I have taken a decision to produce organic sugar and we have reserved the first 100 hectares for it. Organic sugar can be exported worldwide and it has a very good demand and no VAT is imposed on it. There is no change when a gemstone is exported to a foreign country or a foreigner comes to Sri Lanka and buys it. Therefore, the issue is with this interpretation and we should change it. We should fulfill our requirement without causing any harm to the IMF agreements and we can fulfill that task.

Q: The Opposition alleges that the NPP Government also continues former President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s program. Would you comment?

A: They expect the work to be done by the Government in five years to be completed within 49 days. It was the Opposition which criticised earlier saying that the Government is full of inexperienced people and that they cannot fulfill their duties. However, they expect the task to be fulfilled by them in five years to be completed within 24 hours. As the Opposition claimed, if we are ‘inexperienced’, at least they should give us a fair time to learn and fulfill our duties. Are we also doing the same things done by former President Ranil Wickremesinghe?

If Wickremesinghe was in power for 100 days, how many foreign visits would he have made during that period? How many times has his Cabinet Ministers gone abroad? None of our Ministers has done so. They can make a comparison on the expenditure of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe and incumbent President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. How much was spent on former President Wickremesinghe’s security. How many chefs former President Wickremesinghe had and the current President Dissanayake has.

If we want, we have a two-thirds majority to spend money lavishly but our ultimate goal is not that. Ranil Wickremesinghe’s intention was to sell state enterprises and our intention is to safeguard them. We have already safeguarded some of the institutions which had been listed by Wickremesinghe to sell. Then how do they say we are also continuing the same program introduced by Ranil Wickremesinghe. That is completely wrong. Can the people be satisfied with our performance compared to the former administrations? Of the 38 essential food commodities which are sold at the CWE, the prices of 20 such commodities have been reduced. The price reduction of some goods is less than 200 percent. However, we have to concede the fact that we are working with the same officials who had worked with previous administrations. These are the mechanisms created by them. The tourism industry has made significant development as the country’s law and order situation has been ensured by the current Government. At present the country’s fraud and waste of politicians has been largely checked.

Q: According to you, how a political movement which earlier had three MPs in Parliament was developed to the level of securing 159 MPs in Parliament with an overwhelming majority?

A: Earlier, when power was shifted from one Government to another, the same old system was continued and there was no change of the system. However, this is a new system transformation. Therefore, it will take some time to see the results of such a system transformation. Actually, this is a shift from the old system to a new system. We have done away with the old system and commenced the beginning of a new system. So, this is a transitional period and its end results cannot be seen now. The people’s attitudes, economy, social status and administration system should be changed. We should go for quick approaches and new innovations while infusing new technology.

This is going to be a massive transformation and we have commenced that. I think this is a new development not only in Sri Lanka but also in the whole of Asia. The people are not ready to give up the victory they achieved by making huge sacrifices over the past few decades. Therefore, if we also make any mistake, the people will get rid of us. Handunneththi is not important to the people. They only wish to secure this victory they achieved. If Handunneththi doesn’t work hard to secure that victory, they will ignore him and concentrate to safeguard the victory because the people are not ready to reverse the victory they had achieved.

Q: The Opposition and various other sectors have raised concern on the Government’s decision to remove unnecessary modifications and accessories of private buses and three-wheelers. They are of the view that there is a large number of people who depend on the vehicle modification industry. Your comments?

A: How many illegal industries are there in the country? Drugs and the underworld can also be described as industries. If the underworld is curbed, an underworld character might say that he is not in a position to look after his family. Demanding ransom is also illegal and those who resorted to it can say not to curb it. However, that cannot be permitted. Those illegal activities could have prevailed in the past but not now. Have we imposed any fine as we asked to remove those bus and three-wheeler modifications? We have only educated them to remove those modifications.

It hasn’t become a hindrance to the transport activities. We are only rectifying those errors and that is also not done by force or imposing fines. That is not what Clean Sri Lanka really means. It really means to eradicate rural poverty and change the attitudes of the people. Removing these bus and three wheel modifications is just one aspect of it.⍐

Govt confident of fulfilling prior actions before IMF board meeting

Govt confident of fulfilling prior actions before IMF board meeting – Senior Advisor to President January 12, 2025 

By Lalin Fernandopulle

The Government is confident of completing all prior actions before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) board meets in February, said Senior Advisor to the President, Duminda Hulangamuwa.

He said the enactment of two Bills and the 2025 Budget will take place before the IMF board meeting.

The IMF reached a staff-level agreement with the Government on the third review in November 2024.

The IMF Executive Board is expected to meet next month for the final approval of the review of Sri Lanka’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement which would provide Sri Lanka with access to US$333 million.

A team led by Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka, Peter Breuer was in Sri Lanka in November to conduct the third review of Sri Lanka’s economic reform program supported by EFF.

Following the visit the global lender issued the following statement.

“The staff-level agreement is subject to the approval by IMF management and the IMF Executive Board, contingent on: 

(i) the implementation by the authorities of prior actions including the submission of a 2025 budget consistent with program objectives; and 

(ii) the completion of financing assurances review, which will focus on confirming multilateral partners’ committed financing contributions and whether adequate progress has been made with the debt restructuring to give confidence that the restructuring will be concluded in a timely manner and in line with the program’s debt targets.

The executive board of the IMF approved an amount of SDR 2.3 billion (about US$3 billion) on March 20, 2023.

“The completion of the debt restructuring process last year enabled us to upgrade our rating by Fitch and be in a better position to avail the next tranche under the EFF program,” Hulangamuwa said.

Fitch Ratings assigned a ‘CCC+’ foreign-currency rating to Sri Lanka’s governance-linked bonds maturing in 2035 and a ‘CCC+’ local-currency rating to the US dollar step-up bonds maturing in 2038.

On plans to accelerate economic growth he said the immediate plan is to identify key sectors with comparative advantage to drive growth and support them.

“We cannot rely on our 22 million market. We have to expand markets outside our shores. Tourism is the low hanging fruit which has a huge comparative advantage over many regional markets and a natural knock-on effect on a waste segment of the industry that stand to benefit enormously,” he said.

However, there has to be sound infrastructure facilities such as good airports and support services to offer value for money to discerning travellers. Tenders have been called for the expansion of the Bandaranaike International Airport (BIA) and hopefully by next year there will be more flights operating via BIA.

“Developing the IT/BPO industry and taking its benefits to the periphery, boosting the shipping and logistics industry facilities with greater transshipment volume handled, rural agriculture development with high yielding crops, better irrigation systems and harvesting methods to minimise pre and post harvest and boosting productivity in both private and public sector to be competitive are other key areas of the immediate plan to revive the economy,” Hulangamuwa said.⍐

Sunday, January 12, 2025

இராஜதந்திர கடவுசீட்டு சிறீதரன் எம்.பி விமான நிலையத்தில் தடுத்து வைத்து விசாரணை!

 

இராஜதந்திர கடவுசீட்டு சிறீதரன் எம்.பி விமான நிலையத்தில் தடுத்து வைப்பு!  

இந்தியப் பயணத்தின் நோக்கம் குறித்து விசாரணை!

சிறீதரன் எம்.பி விசாரணை தொடர்பில் தமிழரசு கட்சியின் பதில் தலைவர் கண்டனம்!

இலங்கைத் தமிழரசுக் கட்சியின் பாராளுமன்ற உறுப்பினர் சிவஞானம் சிறீதரன் கட்டுநாயக்க விமான நிலையத்தில் தடுத்து வைக்கப்பட்டு விசாரணைக்கு உட்படுத்தப்பட்ட சம்பவத்தை வன்மையாக கண்டிப்பதாக இலங்கை தமிழரசு கட்சியின் பதில் தலைவர் சி.வி.கே.சிவஞானம் தெரிவித்துள்ளார்.

நேற்றையதினம் இந்தியாவில் இடம்பெறவுள்ள நிகழ்வு ஒன்றில் பங்கு கொள்வதற்காக பாராளுமன்ற உறுப்பினர் சிவஞானம் சிறீதரன் அவர்கள் கட்டுநாயக்கா விமான நிலையம் ஊடாக இந்தியா செல்ல சென்றபோது அங்கே விமான நிலைய அதிகாரிகளால் தடுத்து வைக்கப்பட்டு விசாரணைகளின் பின்னர் பயணத்திற்காக அனுமதிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளார்.

இராஜதந்திர கடவுசீட்டினை வைத்திருக்கும் சிரேஷ்ட பாராளுமன்ற உறுப்பினராக இருக்கும் ஒருவரை இவ்வாறு நடத்தியதை ஏற்று கொள்ள முடியாது.

சிவஞானம் சிறீதரன் இலங்கை தமிழரசு கட்சியின் நாடாளுமன்ற குழுத் தலைவராக இருப்பதுடன் அவர் இலங்கை பாராளுமன்றில் மூன்றாவது பெரிய கட்சியாக உள்ள இலங்கை தமிழரசு கட்சியின் பாராளுமன்ற உறுப்பினராகவும் விளங்குகின்றார்.

இறுதியாக இடம்பெற்ற பாராளுமன்ற அமர்வில் திட்டமிட்ட சிங்கள குடியேற்றங்கள் தொடர்பாக அநுர அரசாங்கத்தை கடுமையாக விமர்சித்து உரையாற்றியும் இருந்தார்.

இந்த நிலையிலேயே இவர் விமான நிலையத்தில் தடுத்து வைக்கப்பட்டு விசாரணைகளின் பின்னர் பயணிக்க அனுமதிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளார். எனவே இச்சம்பவம் ஒரு பழிவாங்கும் சம்பவமாக இருக்கலாம் என்ற சந்தேகமும் எமக்கு தோன்றுகிறது.

எனவே இனிமேலும் இவ்வாறான சம்பவங்கள் இடம்பெறாத வண்ணம் பார்த்துக்கொள்ள வேண்டிய பொறுப்பு அநுர அரசாங்கத்திற்கு உண்டு என அவர் குறிப்பிட்டார்.⍐

Tougher U.S. sanctions to curb Russian oil supply to China and India

Tougher U.S. sanctions to curb Russian oil supply to China and India

  • 143 sanctioned oil tankers shipped over 530 mln bbls Russian crude in 2024 - Kpler
  • New sanctions will disrupt Russian oil supply to top buyers China, India
  • Refiners will seek more oil from Mideast, Africa, Americas driving up spot crude prices and freight costs
  • Chinese independents will cut runs if ESPO supply hit - traders
NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Chinese and Indian refiners will source more oil from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, boosting prices and freight costs, as new U.S. sanctions on Russian producers and ships curb supplies to Moscow's top customers, traders and analysts said.

The U.S. Treasury on Friday imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM), opens new tab and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, targeting the revenues Moscow has used to fund its war with Ukraine.

Many of the tankers have been used to ship oil to India and China as Western sanctions and a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some tankers have also shipped oil from Iran, which is also under sanctions.

Russian oil exports will be hurt severely by the new sanctions, which will force Chinese independent refiners to cut refining output going forward, two Chinese trade sources said. The sources declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to media.

The expected disruption in Russian supply drove global oil prices to their highest in months on Monday, with Brent trading above $81 a barrel.

Among the newly sanctioned ships, 143 are oil tankers that handled more than 530 million barrels of Russian crude last year, about 42% of the country's total seaborne crude exports, Kpler's lead freight analyst Matt Wright said in a note.

Of these, about 300 million barrels were shipped to China while the bulk of the remainder went to India, he added.

"These sanctions will significantly reduce the fleet of ships available to deliver crude from Russia in the short term, pushing freight rates higher," Wright said.

A Singapore-based trader said the designated tankers shipped close to 900,000 bpd of Russian crude to China over the past 12 months.

"It's going to drop off a cliff," he added.

For the first 11 months last year, India's Russian crude imports rose 4.5% on year to 1.764 million bpd, or 36% of India's total imports. China's volume, including pipeline supply, was up 2% at 99.09 million metric tons (2.159 million bpd), or 20% of its total imports, over the same period.

China's imports are mostly Russian ESPO Blend crude, sold above the price cap, while India buys mostly Urals oil.

Vortexa analyst Emma Li said Russian ESPO Blend crude exports would be halted if the sanctions were strictly enforced, but it would depend on whether U.S. President-elect Donald Trump lifted the embargo and also whether China acknowledged the sanctions.

ALTERNATIVES

The new sanctions will push China and India back into the compliant oil market to seek more supply from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, the sources said.

Spot prices for Middle East, Africa and Brazilian grades have already risen in recent months on rising demand from China and India as supplies of Russian and Iranian oil tightened and became more expensive, they added.

"Already, prices are rising for Middle Eastern grades," said an Indian oil refining official.

"There is no option than that we have to go for Middle Eastern oil. Perhaps we may have to go for U.S. oil as well."

A second Indian refining source said the sanctions on Russian oil insurers will prompt Russia to price its crude below $60 a barrel so Moscow can continue to use Western insurance and tankers.

Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group said: "Indian refiners, the main takers of Russian crude, are unlikely to wait around to find out and will be scrambling to find alternatives in Middle Eastern and Dated-Brent-related Atlantic Basin crude.

"Strength in the Dubai benchmark can only rise from here as we are likely to see aggressive bidding for February loading cargoes of the likes of Oman or Murban, leading to a tighter Brent/Dubai spread," he added.

Last month, the Biden administration designated more ships dealing with Iranian crude ahead of tougher action expected from the incoming Trump administration, leading the Shandong Port Group to ban sanctioned tankers from calling into its ports in the eastern Chinese province.

As a result, China, the main buyer of Iranian crude, will also turn to heavier Middle Eastern oil and most likely will maximise its offtake of Canadian crude from the Trans-Mountain pipeline (TMX), Tchilinguirian said.

எழுத்தாளர் அந்தனி ஜீவா காலமானார்!

 எழுத்தாளர் அந்தனி ஜீவா காலமானார்!

இலங்கை மலையக தமிழ் இலக்கியத்தை, அதன் பல்வேறு வடிவங்களில் அது தனது சமகாலத்தை பதிவு செய்தன் வரலாற்றை அறிய அல்லது ஆய்வு செய்ய முயலுகின்ற எவரும் எழுத்தாளர் அந்தனி ஜீவா அவர்களை விலக்கிச் செல்ல இயலாது. அந்த அளவுக்கு அவர் அந்த உலகோடு பின்னிப் பிணைந்தவர்.

தனது 80 வருட வாழ்வில் சுமார் 65 ஆண்டுகள் அந்த உலகத்தில் வாழ்ந்தவர் அந்தனி ஜீவா அவர்கள்.

பத்திரிகைத் துறையை ஒரு பாட நெறியாகக் கற்று பல்கலைக்கழக பட்டம் பெற்றவர்.

சுதந்திரன் (சமஸ்டிக்கட்சியின் அதிகாரபூர்வமற்ற அரசியல் ஏடு), மாணவன், தமிழருவி, திருமகன், கலைமலர், மாணவமலர், மாலைமுரசு, ஈழநாடு, சிந்தாமணி, சிரித்திரன், அமுதம், தேசபக்தன், நவமணி, தினகரன் உள்ளிட்ட பல்வேறு இதழ்களில் கட்டுரைகள், சிறுகதைகள் எழுதியுள்ளார். கொழுந்து, குன்றின் குரல், லங்கா தோட்டத் தொழிலாளர் யூனியன் வெளியிட்ட ஜனசக்தி ஆகிய இதழ்களின் ஆசிரியராகவும் இருந்துள்ளார்.

பல்வேறு இலக்கிய வடிவங்களில் சுமார் 25 இற்கு மேற்பட்ட நூல்கள் எழுதியுள்ளார்.

இவர் எழுதிய முதல் நாடகமான 'முள்ளில் ரோஜா' 1970 இல் மேடையேறியது. 1970களில் தொழிலாளர் வர்க்கப் பிரச்சனைகளைக் கருப்பொருளாகக் கொண்ட அக்கினிப்பூக்கள், வீணை அழுகின்றது முதலான நாடகங்களை உருவாக்கினார். இவற்றில் வீணை அழுகின்றது என்ற நாடகத்திற்கு இலங்கை அரசு தடை விதித்தது. 1980களில் தெரு நாடகங்களைக் கொழும்பு, மலையகப் பகுதிகளில் நடாத்தினார்.

இவற்றோடு கூடவே அடுத்த இளம் தலைமுறையினரை எழுத்துலகில் ஈர்ப்பதற்கும் இவர் அயராது உழைத்துள்ளார்.

கருத்து நிலைகளுக்கு அப்பால், ஓரு சாதாரண மனிதருக்கு  இது ஒரு வாழ் நாள் சாதனை என்பதில் மாற்றுக் கருத்துக்கு இடமிருக்க முடியாது.

ஜனநாயகம் குறித்த பிரச்சனையில் அவரது தனிப்பட்ட கொள்கை நிலையை அறிவதற்கு, இந்த வாழ் நாள் சாதனை குறித்த ஒரு புறவய விஞ்ஞான ஆய்வு தேவை.இது மலையக வரலாற்றை அறிவதற்கும் துணை செய்யக் கூடும்.

அவர் வளர்த்த தலைமுறை இதைக் கட்டாயம் செய்யவேண்டும்.

அவர் எழுதிய நூல்களின் பட்டியல்:

  • அ.ந.க ஒரு சகாப்தம்
  • அக்கினிப் பூக்கள் (1999)
  • அன்னை இந்திரா (1985)
  • அமைதி கோர்ட் நடந்துகொண்டிருக்கிறது
  • ஆனந்தமே ஜீவனின் மகரந்தம்
  • இவர்கள் வித்தியாசமானவர்கள்
  • ஈழத்தில் தமிழ் நாடகம் (1981)
  • ஒரு வானம்பாடியின் கதை (தன் கதை, 2014)
  • கண்டி மாவட்டத் தமிழர்களின் வரலாற்றுப் பதிவுகள் (2002)
  • காந்தி நடேசய்யர் (1990)
  • குறிஞ்சிக் குயில்கள் (2002)
  • குறும் பூக்கள்
  • சி. வி. சில நினைவுகள் (2002)
  • சிறகு விரிந்த காலம் (2007)
  • சுவாமி விபுலாநந்தர்
  • திருந்திய அசோகன் (2003)
  • நெஞ்சில் பதிந்த ஐரோப்பியப் பயணம் (2003)
  • பார்வையின் பதிவுகள்
  • மலையகம் வளர்த்த கவிதை (2002)
  • மலையக மாணிக்கங்கள் (1998)
  • மலையகத் தமிழ் இலக்கியத்திற்கு முஸ்லீம் எழுத்தாளர்களின் பங்களிப்பு (2002)
  • மலையகத் தொழிற்சங்க வரலாறு (2005)
  • மலையகமும் இலக்கியமும் (1995)
  • முகமும் முகவரியும் (1997)

தான் செயலாளராகப் பணியாற்றும் மலையக வெளியீட்டகம் மூலம் பல நூல்களை வெளியிட்டுள்ளார். பெண்களின் எழுத்துக்களைத் தொகுத்து குறிஞ்சி மலர்கள் (சிறுகதைகள், (2000)), குறிஞ்சிக் குயில்கள் (கவிதைகள், 2002), அம்மா(சிறுகதைகள், 2004) போன்ற தொகுப்புக்களையும் மேற்காட்டிய ஆண்டுகளில் வெளியிட்டுள்ளார்.

விருதுகள்

அந்தனி ஜீவா இலங்கை அரசின் சாகித்திய விருது, அரச இலக்கிய விருதுகளைப் பெற்றுள்ளார்.

அந்தனி ஜீவா (1944.05.26 - ) கொழும்பைப் பிறப்பிடமாகவும் மலையகத்தை வசிப்பிடமாகவும் கொண்டிருந்தார். இவரது தந்தை செபஸ்டியன்; தாய் லட்சுமி அம்மாள். கொழும்பு சுவர்ண வீதியிலிருந்த தமிழ்ப் பாடசாலையிலும் பம்பலப்பிட்டி புனித மரியாள் கல்லூரியிலும் கல்வி கற்றார்.

அந்தனி ஜீவா நேற்று முன்தினம்(10-01-2025) அன்று காலமானார்.

அந்தனி ஜீவாவின் இறுதிக்கிரியை கிருலப்பனை பொது மயானத்தில் இன்று (12) நடைபெற்றது.

ஒரு வானம்பாடி ஓய்ந்தது.

அது வானில் பறக்கவிட்ட பாடல்கள் ஆய்வாகும்.

அது வரை மலையகம் ஓயாது. 

அன்னாருக்கு எமது அஞ்சலிகள்.

தோழர்கள் சார்பில் (சுபா) 12-01-2025

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