May 25th 2012, 11:20 by A.P. | LONDON The Economist
It’s been a week since shares in Bankia plummeted on reports, later denied, that customers were pulling deposits out of the Spanish lender. Fears of a full-scale bank run in Greece have not yet materialised. But the possibility of a deposit run in Europe's peripheral states is still very much alive. It is also the thing that policymakers are least prepared for.
As with most aspects to the euro crisis, the usual answers are not much help. One tactic is to show customers the money. Old hands of emerging-market bank runs talk of how they used to pile cash up in full view of panicking customers so that they could see how well stocked the banks were with money. The equivalent now is to let the central bank provide enough liquidity that the ATMs always spit out cash. But if the idea is to get your hands on euros today in case of a currency redenomination tomorrow, then you will still want it out of the bank and under the mattress.
Another response to runs is to calm worries about the solvency of specific institutions by beefing up the scale of deposit guarantees. In the first phase of the crisis, which now seems almost innocent in its simplicity, that is what governments did. But that makes the problem worse, not better, if
government solvency is at the root of the problem.
The logical solution, as we argue this week, is to set up a joint deposit-guarantee scheme, in which euro-zone states pool resources to provide credible reassurance that depositors across the zone will get their money back, up to a harmonised threshold of €100,000 ($125,000). To get around the
redenomination risk, the guarantee would have to be a promise to repay the original value of the deposit in euros.
The problem, as analysts have noted this week, is that even if the political will to realise this end existed (which is highly questionable), it would take a long time to negotiate an agreement. There are all sorts of fiddly details for Eurocrats to get their teeth into. Should the scheme be prefunded? Should depositors be preferred creditors, or behind the ECB in the queue? What supervisory arrangements are needed to ensure that creditor nations have sufficient oversight of the deposit-
taking institutions they now insure in peripheral countries? And that is before you get into the rigmarole of ratifying agreements.
The trouble with this is that there is a horrible, insoluble mismatch between the timescales to which Europe’s policymakers work and the timescale of a bank run. A run is most likely within the next few weeks. And if a run starts, Europe’s governments will have to reassure within a matter of hours. You might just about get a communiqué from Brussels in that timeframe, but could it really reassure when so many questions are unanswered?
If it does not, then the run will continue until such time as the banks close their doors to further withdrawals or the central banks have satisfied depositors’ demand for cash. The former means trapping depositors inside a system they do not trust. The latter means providing liquidity to a banking system that has been abandoned by its own citizens. It would be hard to come back from either position.
Spain's fourth-biggest bank, Bankia, said Friday it will ask the government for 19 billion euros ($24 billion) in the largest bank bailout in the country's history.
The bank, which holds some 10 percent of the nation's bank deposits, said the request will be part of a recapitilsation plan which it approved at a board meeting on Friday and is backed by the government and the Bank of Spain.
"This plan has identified capital needs of 19 billion euros which will be entirely covered by the state," it said in a regulatory filing.
The government already spent 4.5 billion euros on Bankia earlier this month when it partially nationalised the lender.
The state took a controlling 45-percent stake in Bankia by converting a loan for that amount to its parent group Banco Financiero de Ahorros (BFA) into equity.
The bailout requested by Bankia on Friday will bring to 23.5 billion euros the total amount spent by the Spanish government to rescue the bank, which was formed in 2010 from a merger of seven troubled regional savings banks.
Spanish banks are at the heart of market fears that Spain, the eurozone's fourth-largest economy, could be forced to seek an international financial bailout.
Earlier this week Economy Minister Luis de Guindos estimated Bankia would need around seven billion euros to shore up its finances although he said his government would provide whatever funds were needed.
Bankia shares were suspended from trading Friday ahead of the bank's board meeting after newspaper reports said it planned to ask the state for aid of 15-20 billion euros.
Under the recapilitisation plan it approved Friday, Bankia's parent group BFA will ask Spain's bank restructuring fund FROB to subscribe to a capital increase of 19 billion euros.
Bankia will then launch a 12 billion euro capital increase which will be underwritten by BFA.
"Bankia clients can have absolute confidence that their savings are now safer than ever," said Bankia president Jose Ignacio Goirigolzarri.
The bank also announced that it had revised its results for 2011. Instead of posting a net profit of 309 million euros, it recorded a net loss of 2.979 billion euros due to write-downs made in its loan portfolio.
Bankia had problematic property assets amounting to 31.8 billion euros at the end of last year, according to Bank of Spain figures.
Standard & Poor's on Friday cut its credit ratings for five Spanish banks, including Bankia and its parent group BFA.
It downgraded Bankia to BB+, one notch into junk status, from BBB- and reduced its rating for BFA, which was already in junk status, to B+, four notches into junk territory, from BB-.
Standard & Poor's also cut its rating for Bankinter, Banco Popular and Banca Civica.
Daniel Pingarron, an analyst at Spanish brokerage IG Markets, said the injection of public funds into Bankia to save it "will not change things very much."
"What will happen is the FROB funds will run out, the fund will have to be replenished with public debt, and that does not sent a message of confidence" to markets, he added.
The government could add two other savings banks under its control, Novacaixagalicia and CatalunyaCaixa, to Bankia, which would create "the biggest public bank in Spanish history", and then sell the lender, Pingarron said.
The government refused to comment on this possibility.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's conservative government this month instructed Spain's banks to set aside an extra 30 billion euros in 2012 in case property-related loans go bad, on top of 53.8 billion euros required under reforms enacted in February.
Bankia's shares plummeted 7.43 percent on Thursday to close at 1.57 euros, taking total losses to more than 58 percent since their listing in July 2011.
Over 700 students have been arrested in Canada during the latest night of rallies against tuition fee hikes and the adoption of controversial bill that is widely seen as a tool to limit freedom of speech, association and assembly.
Police in Montreal dispersed unsanctioned protests and arrested 518 demonstrators on Wednesday night. The arrests were also made in Quebec City, where some 170 were detained, and in Sherbrooke. There were no reports of injuries or casualties.
Police used kettling tactics to encircle the protesters and contain them within a small space. People reportedly threw projectiles such as fireworks and bottles at officers, forcing them to carry out extensive arrests.
Most of those detained have already been released. Some face $1,000 fines.
For over 14 weeks, Canada has been facing the most sustained student demonstration in its history. The protest on Wednesday started as a peaceful march of thousands, just like the majority of previous rallies.
In order to give the police another non-lethal means of pressure on protesters, Quebec's legislative assembly adopted a bill that introduces enormous fines of $24,000 to $122,000 against unions and student organizations which do not stop their members from protesting. Individuals found guilty of organizing a protest now face a fine of some $34,000.
On Tuesday, the movement marked the 100th day of demonstrations against the tuition hikes of around $250 per year with a massive rally in Montreal. Over 120 people were detained following the event.
"Growth is too slow and unemployment, including youth unemployment, is too high.''
IMF Gives Stark Warning To UK Over Eurozone
Tuesday, May 22nd 2012 10:44
Britain may have to cut interest rates and VAT to stimulate the economy amid the eurozone crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
But the IMF backed the UK's deficit reduction plan, saying "substantial progress" had been made on balancing the books.
The head of the fund, Christine Lagarde, warned the eurozone crisis could prolong the UK's recession and urged the Bank of England to take action to boost growth and reduce unemployment.
She advocated a cut in the base rate of interest, which has remained unchanged at a historic low of 0.5% for over three years.
In a report on the UK, the IMF warned an escalation of the crisis would deliver a "substantial contractionary shock" to the UK economy, setting back progress made towards recovery.
It said the Government should start preparing a Plan B, featuring temporary tax cuts and increased spending on infrastructure, to support the UK economy.
Britain entered a double-dip recession during the first quarter of the year after the economy contracted by 0.2%, following a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.3% in the final three months of 2011.
The IMF identified uncertainty over the future of the euro as the main danger to recovery and warned: "Risks are large and tilted clearly to the downside."
The report recognised "substantial progress" towards balancing Britain's books thanks to the coalition Government's deficit-reduction programme, but noted the economy remains "flat" and warned the weak recovery may be "more protracted than previously anticipated".
IMF managing director Ms Lagarde put pressure on the Bank of England for further monetary stimulus to revive the economy.
She said: "Growth is too slow and unemployment, including youth unemployment, is too high.
"Policies to bolster demand before low growth becomes entrenched are needed."
In an endorsement to Chancellor George Osborne's economic strategy, Ms Lagarde added: "The UK authorities' policy approach has reinforced credibility at a time of intensified global uncertainty."
Referring to the UK's budget deficit, Ms Lagarde said she "shivered' when she thought about what would have happened if it had remained at the 11% of GDP level it reached in May 2010.
As debt-laden Greece teeters on the edge of being forced to leave the euro - leading to a potential catastrophe across the single currency bloc - the Chancellor said the UK was preparing for all eventualities.
"The British government is doing contingency planning for all potential outcomes.
"It's our responsibility to ensure that while we work for the best, we prepare for something worse," said Mr Osborne, who was speaking at a joint press conference with Ms Lagarde.
He added: "It's clear we're now reaching a critical point for the eurozone.
"Eurozone countries need to stand behind their currency or face up to the prospect of a Greek exit with all the risks that that would involve."
The Chancellor also admitted ministers needed to do more to tackle unemployment, which currently stands at 8.2% despite modest falls over the last two months.
Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, who would like to see a less radical approach to cutting the deficit, told Sky News that Mr Osborne's plan had "failed".
============= The OECD warned the eurozone is facing a "severe recession" which poses a threat to economies across the world.
"The IMF is saying the UK economy is under-performing and needs urgent action to get jobs and growth moving," he said.
The IMF warning came as UK inflation fell to its lowest level in more than two years, providing welcome relief to household budgets.
Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development revised downwards its outlook for the eurozone.
It said it expects the euro area's economy to contract by 0.1% this year, compared to a previous forecast of 0.2% growth, before returning to positive output in 2013.
The OECD warned the eurozone is facing a "severe recession" which poses a threat to economies across the world.
"The crisis in the euro area has become more serious recently, and it remains the most important source of risk to the global economy," said OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan.
The group left its outlook for 2012 for the UK economy unchanged at growth of 0.2%.
US and Japan leading economic recovery but still fragile says latest OECD report
The United States and Japan are leading a fragile economic recovery among developed countries that could yet be blown off course if the Euro zone fails to contain its flaring growth crisis, the OECD said on Tuesday.
In its twice-yearly economic outlook, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development forecast that global growth would ease to 3.4% this year from 3.6% in 2011, before accelerating to 4.2% in 2013, in line with its last estimates from late November.
Growth across the organisation's 34 members, generally the wealthiest in the world, would ease this year to 1.6% from 1.8% in 2011 and then reach 2.2% in 2013, also roughly in line with previous estimates.
“We see a slow rebound of growth in the United States driven mostly by private demand, some pick-up in Japan and moderate to strong growth in emerging economies,” OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan told reporters in an interview.
“We also see flat growth in the Euro area which hides important differences, with northern countries growing and southern countries in recession,” he added.
The OECD forecast that the 17-member Euro zone economy would shrink 0.1% this year before posting growth of 0.9% in 2013, though regional powerhouse Germany would chalk up growth of 1.2% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013.
Although OECD economies were on the mend, the Euro zone's debt crisis could still spiral out of control with Greece struggling to remain solvent and Spanish banks needing to be recapitalised, Padoan said.
The European Central Bank's injection of one trillion Euros of liquidity into the Euro zone's banking system and an increase in European bailout funds and IMF reserves had helped keep the Euro zone's debt crisis from spiralling out of control.
“If the situation gets worse, there are ways to enhance the firewall capacity which could include a stronger intervention or role of the ECB,” Padoan said.
In particular, the ECB should not rule out buying government bonds again to keep borrowing costs down, lending to the ESM European bailout fund as well as cutting its main benchmark interest rate, which currently stands at 1.00%. The ECB could also consider another injection of liquidity into the banking system.
In contrast to the Euro zone, the United States was expected to continue to benefit from easy credit conditions and ultra-loose monetary policy, with the world's biggest economy forecast to grow 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2013. In November, the OECD had forecast 2.0% for 2012 and 2.5% for 2013.
Although some budget tightening and a still weak housing market would be a drag on growth, demand in the private sector would continue to strengthen as the unemployment rate to as low as 7.5% by the end of 2013 from 8.1% in April.
The OECD said that while the US needed to step up the pace of its fiscal tightening, if tax cuts were allowed to expire as scheduled in 2013 it could result in too much cutting at once and threaten growth.
The Japanese economy was set to grow 2.0% this year and 1.5% in 2013 as a reconstruction boom after last year's earthquake and tsunami faded although recovering world trade would offer support.
A rebound in global trade would be a bright spot for many economies, with the OECD forecasting it would surge from 4.1% this year to 7.0% in 2013.
Export-giant China was forecast to see growth rebound from 8.2% this year to 9.3% in 2013 as interest rate cuts and increased social spending propped up domestic demand in the non-OECD member country.
It is not possible to remove Armed Forces camps from North and reduce attention to national security
19 May 2012, 11:43 pm
by Mahinda Rajapaksa
(Text of President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s address to the nation, at the Armed Services Humanitarian Victory Parade, Galle Face, Colombo on May 19th 2012)
I need not state afresh that this day – the 19th of May – is now a great historic day in our country.
Today marks third celebration of victory of the nation under a single flag. It is the great victory that restored the honorable peace that our country had preserved through many centuries. Similarly, it is also the great victory that freed many lakhs of people in the North who were held hostage by the forces of terror and removed the fear of death that existed among all people.
Our heroes and veterans of war gave their feet for us to walk in freedom. They gave their lives to save all people from the throes of death. They gave their last breath to the winds to let us breathe in freedom. The nation will no doubt remember all that sacrifice with great honor.
We will not stop there. We have now given a new meaning to all the blood, sweat and tears shed by them on behalf of the nation.
We are now protecting the country that was won through this sacrifice and building a great country that is free, independent and not subject to any others. I recall how when we were strengthening our armed forces, police and civil defense corps the questions being raised as to how they could be maintained after the war is over.
Is this not a great wasteful expenditure, was the question asked. These questions were raised even before we could complete the task ahead. Today, I ask you to consider whether this criticism was just or reasonable.
When terrorism prevailed, the armed forces had a great responsibility. Once peace has been established, the heroes who brought us freedom have a similar responsibility. It is the task of rebuilding the country and adding to its beauty.
I state with great humility and justified pride that we have given dignity of life to the heroes of war who brought to us the dignity of peace. I believe the Ranaviru Housing Project is the largest housing project established in Sri Lanka. We have not only given your children entry to national schools but also built a separate War Heroes school, which is today among the best schools in the country. I see some of these children present here today. Similarly, we have well thought out programs to care for the disabled veterans, especially in places such as the Mihindu Seth Medura.
We also ensure that the veterans who retire from our forces are given necessary vocational training before they return to civilian life. The Rathna Lanka Security Service has been especially established for these veterans. We extend our love to the unborn children of our veterans. This is why we proposed in the last budget that the third child of a war hero’s family would receive a grant of Rs. 100, 000.
I do not know whether this is effectively used and invite you to do so. We have also given the opportunity for those with artistic talent among our veterans to bring their talents to the fore, enhance it, and give them recognition in the country. I do not think any other country in the word respects its heroes and veterans in such manner.
You will recall how terrorism compelled us all to live in the midst of much restrictions and obstructions, through 30 years. It is just three years since the war ended. Today, the country that faced such restrictions has returned to normal. We have systematically removed from our vocabulary the references of refugee camps, land mines and villages under threat. There is no State of Emergency today.
There are no high security zones. The check points and road blocks that we had through every two or three kilometers, and even on this Galle Road, are not there anymore.
It is no secret that through 30 years there were armed groups and militias operating, especially in the North and East. All such groups have now been disarmed. There were limits imposed on fishermen under which they could not go beyond a certain distance. These restrictions are also no more. The era of the underworld and drug racketeers is ending. Today Sri Lanka is a country free of restrictions and obstacles.
Although this is the actual situation in the country, there are some who have restrictions in their minds and thinking. Although the people feel today’s relief in their hearts, some are not ready to expect the reality of such relief.
We are aware that the armed forces do not participate in the administration of the North or East. These regions are administered by the public service and the police. Despite this there are many who shout that the security forces camps in these areas should be removed.
They ask us why they are not removed. But no one asks whether those who make such demands are not seeking to achieve what Prabhakaran failed to obtain through the use of ship loads of arms, aerial attacks, sea tiger and human suicide bomb attacks through 30 years of war of terror. Are they now not asking this through different means?
It is necessary to ask those who call for the removal of the armed forces from the North whether the ‘Diaspora’ and Eelamists have stopped their work although the country has returned to normal. It is no secret that those who conscripted children to war, and other war criminals who are leaders of the LTTE, are acting with freedom in foreign countries.
Just as much as their work their demands also remain the same; they seek the same ends through different means. Therefore, we must ask if we in a position to remove the armed forces camps in the North and reduce our attention national security. That is not possible. Armed services camps are not found in the North alone. They are seen throughout the country. They are in Colombo and Giruvapattu in the South. These are found in our country. Not in any foreign country.
We are a country that is a member of the United Nations, working with friendship with all countries and sit with equality with all its members. We are a non-aligned country. We have the strength to resolve our own problems and issues. After 30 years we now see the dawn that will take us to a golden age of the future. We are a country with a free and independent policy aligned to peace.
I need not repeat that it is a difficult task to build a country with huge development in keeping with international levels of growth. Yet, we have now begun to raise our head as a nation. What we seek is to bring to the world a modern developed county. We have not forgotten the help and assistance given to us by our neighbors and other countries of the international community to defeat terrorism. Similarly, what we expect from them today is cooperation in our moves for rapid development of the country.
We appointed the Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) with great expectations of bringing about reconciliation among communities. We are already carrying out what we can agree to and can implement among the recommendations of the LLRC. This is not due to any pressure from anyone. We will not abandon our responsibilities.
I believe the countries of the world should understand this when they see the service we have done in three years to the Tamil people of the North, whose freedom we have restored. Therefore, we cannot allow this report of the commission appointed to bring about reconciliation among people to be used to create divisions among people.
It is evident to you all that the narrow thinking of the past does not exist among our communities today.
We can now observe the present experiences of marriages between those of the North and the South. Today the youth, both men and women, of the North and East who once took to arms have abandon weapons and are ready to join Police and the Armed Forces. National political parties are today able to work and function freely in the North in absence of fear. Having defeated terrorism we should now fully use this opportunity for freedom afforded by peace. This is not an opportunity gained by or for Ealamists. You, our heroic forces have prevented that.
We must have the patience to save the victory we have won. This cannot be done in haste or through fear. We cannot take rush into decisions on such matters, as they will not last long. We must act with foresight and a good understanding of the future of our country. Let us join hands and work together having abandoned narrow expectations.
Let us build a great, developed and peaceful country where everyone can live without fear and mistrust that we can proudly bequeath to our children and unborn generations. That is the challenge of victory. Achieving it is greatest victory.
Mass anti-austerity protests sweep through Spain
Published: 12 May, 2012, 23:50
At least 100,000 protesters angered by the country's grim economic prospects turned out for street demonstrations in 80 cities across Spain. This marked the one-year anniversary of a movement that inspired similar activist groups in other countries.
In the capital Madrid, thousands of protesters chanted and beat drums as they marched from different directions to converge on the central Puerta del Sol Square. The square was brimming with demonstrators during the evening, but visibly emptied as some of the protesters left after 10pm local time.
Protesters hold up a banner which reads, "Regime of the 1%, Crisis for 99%", during a protest marking the one year anniversary of Spain's Indignados (Indignant) movement in Madrid's Puerta del Sol, May 12, 2012 (Reuters/Andrea Comas)
Authorities have vowed to block any attempts by protesters to camp out on the square, which is the popular movement's epicenter. Marches were also held in Barcelona, Bilbao, Malaga and Seville.
The four day-long demonstration marks the one-year anniversary of the "Indignants" protest movement, as Spain’s economic woes deepen by the day.
Joblessness has soared to almost 25 per cent – the highest level in the eurozone – with half of all Spaniards under the age of 25 are out of work. As the country already faces 30 billion euros in cuts so far this year, demonstrators say the cuts have left public services greatly underfunded.
The government is planning a fresh round of austerity measures as the country sinks further into recession, prompting fears that Spain may soon require a Greek-style bailout. These measures include hikes in property and income taxes, freezes on the minimum wage and cuts to health care and education spending, as well as further slashing of pensioners' benefits.
Indignados (indignant) protesters fill up the Puerta del Sol square during a protest marking the one year anniversary of Spain's Indignados movement in Madrid's Puerta del Sol, May 12, 2012 (Reuters/Paul Hanna)
“We are here because we continue to be angry over the austerity policies which an economic elite is imposing on us," 21-year-old student Victor Valdes told AFP in Madrid. Another protester said it was important to let the government know “we are still here.”
The government has vowed not to see a repeat of last year’s scenario, when the “indignados” managed to erect a sprawling tent city in the heart of Madrid. After violent clashes with police, the demonstrators were forcibly evicted.
Authorities in Madrid issued a permit for a five-hour long gathering on Saturday, and the protesters were required to vacate the square by 10pm but will be allowed to return the following day.
However, activists said over social media that they would call for a “permanent assembly” to be held on Puerta del Sol throughout the four-day protest.
Spain's "indignants" protesters demonstrate at the Puerta del Sol square in Madrid on May 12, 2012 (AFP Photo/ Jaime Reina)
The government has warned that there will be enough officers to enforce the law, with some 2,000 riot police deployed in the capital.
Victor Sampedro, a professor of political communication, believes the demonstrators have headed to the street in order to participate in politics.
“These people want to take part in politics, and they cannot take part in politics because they have reached the conclusion that while it is worth voting, it does not reflect the public opinion because only two main parties can govern. Actually it’s a bi-partisan system, de-facto,” Sampedro noted to RT, "and both main parties coincide fully in their economic measures.”
