Thursday, June 02, 2016
Sunday, May 29, 2016
அதிக இரத்தம் குடித்துவிட்டோமா? IMF
Neoliberalism: அதிக இரத்தம் குடித்துவிட்டோமா? IMF
Neoliberalism: Oversold?
FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT, June 2016, Vol. 53, No. 2
Jonathan D. Ostry, Prakash Loungani, and Davide Furceri
Inside the stock exchange in Santiago, Chile, one of the first countries to adopt a form of neoliberal policies.
Instead of delivering growth, some neoliberal policies have increased inequality, in turn jeopardizing durable expansion Milton Friedman in 1982 hailed Chile as an “economic miracle.” Nearly a decade earlier, Chile had turned to policies that have since been widely emulated across the globe. The
neoliberal agenda—a label used more by critics than by the architects of the policies—rests on two main planks. The first is increased competition—achieved through deregulation and the opening up of domestic markets, including financial markets, to foreign competition. The second is a smaller role for the state, achieved through privatization and limits on the ability of governments to run fiscal deficits and accumulate debt.
There has been a strong and widespread global trend toward neoliberalism since the 1980s, according to a composite index that measures the extent to which countries introduced competition in various spheres of economic activity to foster economic growth. As shown in the left panel of Chart 1, Chile’s push started a decade or so earlier than 1982, with subsequent policy changes bringing it ever closer to the United States. Other countries have also steadily implemented neoliberal policies (see Chart 1, right panel).
There is much to cheer in the neoliberal agenda. The expansion of global trade has rescued millions from abject poverty. Foreign direct investment has often been a way to transfer technology and know-how to developing economies. Privatization of state-owned enterprises has in many instances led to more efficient provision of services and lowered the fiscal burden on governments.
However, there are aspects of the neoliberal agenda that have not delivered as expected. Our assessment of the agenda is confined to the effects of two policies: removing restrictions on the movement of capital across a country’s borders (so-called capital account liberalization); and fiscal consolidation, sometimes called “austerity,” which is shorthand for policies to reduce fiscal deficits and debt levels. An assessment of these specific policies (rather than the broad neoliberal agenda) reaches three disquieting conclusions:
•The benefits in terms of increased growth seem fairly difficult to establish when looking at a broad group of countries.
•The costs in terms of increased inequality are prominent. Such costs epitomize the trade-off between the growth and equity effects of some aspects of the neoliberal agenda.
•Increased inequality in turn hurts the level and sustainability of growth. Even if growth is the sole or main purpose of the neoliberal agenda, advocates of that agenda still need to pay attention to the distributional effects.
Open and shut?
As Maurice Obstfeld (1998) has noted, “economic theory leaves no doubt about the potential advantages” of capital account liberalization, which is also sometimes called financial
openness. It can allow the international capital market to channel world savings to their most productive uses across the globe. Developing economies with little capital can borrow
to finance investment, thereby promoting their economic growth without requiring sharp increases in their own saving. But Obstfeld also pointed to the “genuine hazards” of openness to foreign financial flows and concluded that “this duality of benefits and risks is inescapable in the real world.”
This indeed turns out to be the case. The link between financial openness and economic growth is complex. Some capital inflows, such as foreign direct investment—which may include a transfer of technology or human capital—do seem to boost long-term growth. But the impact of other flows—such as portfolio investment and banking and especially hot, or speculative, debt inflows—seem neither to boost growth nor allow the country to better share risks with its trading partners (Dell’Ariccia and others, 2008; Ostry, Prati, and Spilimbergo, 2009). This suggests that the growth and risk-sharing benefits of capital flows depend on which type of flow is being considered; it may also depend on the nature of supporting institutions and policies.
Although growth benefits are uncertain, costs in terms of increased economic volatility and crisis frequency seem more evident. Since 1980, there have been about 150 episodes of surges in capital inflows in more than 50 emerging market economies; as shown in the left panel of Chart 2, about 20 percent of the time, these episodes end in a financial crisis, and many of these crises are associated with large output declines (Ghosh, Ostry, and Qureshi, 2016).
The pervasiveness of booms and busts gives credence to the claim by Harvard economist Dani Rodrik that these “are hardly a sideshow or a minor blemish in international capital flows; they are the main story.” While there are many drivers, increased capital account openness consistently figures as a risk factor in these cycles. In addition to raising the odds of a crash, financial openness has distributional effects, appreciably raising inequality (see Furceri and Loungani, 2015, for a discussion of the channels through which this operates). Moreover, the effects of openness on inequality are much higher when a crash ensues (Chart 2, right panel).
The mounting evidence on the high cost-to-benefit ratio of capital account openness, particularly with respect to short-term flows, led the IMF’s former First Deputy Managing Director, Stanley Fischer, now the vice chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, to exclaim recently: “What useful purpose is served by short-term international capital flows?”
Among policymakers today, there is increased acceptance of controls to limit short-term debt flows that are viewed as likely to lead to—or compound—a financial crisis. While not the only tool available—exchange rate and financial policies can also help—capital controls are a viable, and sometimes the only, option when the source of an unsustainable credit boom is direct borrowing from abroad (Ostry and others, 2012).
Size of the state
Curbing the size of the state is another aspect of the neoliberal agenda. Privatization of some government functions is one way to achieve this. Another is to constrain government spending through limits on the size of fiscal deficits and on the ability of governments to accumulate debt. The economic history of recent decades offers many examples of such curbs, such as the limit of 60 percent of GDP set for countries to join the euro area (one of the so-called Maastricht criteria).
Economic theory provides little guidance on the optimal public debt target. Some theories justify higher levels of debt (since taxation is distortionary) and others point to lower—or even negative—levels (since adverse shocks call for precautionary saving). In some of its fiscal policy advice, the IMF has been concerned mainly with the pace at which governments reduce deficits and debt levels following the buildup of debt in advanced economies induced by the global financial crisis: too slow would unnerve markets; too fast would derail recovery. But the IMF has also argued for paying down debt ratios in the medium term in a broad mix of advanced and emerging market countries, mainly as insurance against future shocks.
But is there really a defensible case for countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, or the United States to pay down the public debt? Two arguments are usually made in support of paying down the debt in countries with ample fiscal space—that is, in countries where there is little real prospect of a fiscal crisis. The first is that, although large adverse shocks such as the Great Depression of the 1930s or the global financial crisis of the past decade occur rarely, when they do, it is helpful to have used the quiet times to pay down the debt. The second argument rests on the notion that high debt is bad for growth—and, therefore, to lay a firm foundation for growth, paying down the debt is essential.
It is surely the case that many countries (such as those in southern Europe) have little choice but to engage in fiscal consolidation, because markets will not allow them to continue borrowing. But the need for consolidation in some countries does not mean all countries—at least in this case, caution about “one size fits all” seems completely warranted.
Markets generally attach very low probabilities of a debt crisis to countries that have a strong record of being fiscally responsible (Mendoza and Ostry, 2007). Such a track record gives them latitude to decide not to raise taxes or cut productive spending when the debt level is high (Ostry and others, 2010; Ghosh and others, 2013). And for countries with a strong track record, the benefit of debt reduction, in terms of insurance against a future fiscal crisis, turns out to be remarkably small, even at very high levels of debt to GDP. For example, moving from a debt ratio of 120 percent of GDP to 100 percent of GDP over a few years buys the country very little in terms of reduced crisis risk (Baldacci and others, 2011).
But even if the insurance benefit is small, it may still be worth incurring if the cost is sufficiently low. It turns out, however, that the cost could be large—much larger than the benefit. The reason is that, to get to a lower debt level, taxes that distort economic behavior need to be raised temporarily or productive spending needs to be cut—or both. The costs of the tax increases or expenditure cuts required to bring down the debt may be much larger than the reduced crisis risk engendered by the lower debt (Ostry, Ghosh, and Espinoza, 2015). This is not to deny that high debt is bad for growth and welfare. It is. But the key point is that the welfare cost from the higher debt (the so-called burden of the debt) is one that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered; it is a sunk cost. Faced with a choice between living with the higher debt—allowing the debt ratio to decline organically through growth—or deliberately running budgetary surpluses to reduce the debt, governments with ample fiscal space will do better by living with the debt.
Austerity policies not only generate substantial welfare costs due to supply-side channels, they also hurt demand—and thus worsen employment and unemployment. The notion that fiscal consolidations can be expansionary (that is, raise output and employment), in part by raising private sector confidence and investment, has been championed by, among others, Harvard economist Alberto Alesina in the academic world and by former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet in the policy arena. However, in practice, episodes of fiscal consolidation have been followed, on average, by drops rather than by expansions in output. On average, a consolidation of 1 percent of GDP increases the long-term unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage point and raises by 1.5 percent within five years the Gini measure of income inequality (Ball and others, 2013).
In sum, the benefits of some policies that are an important part of the neoliberal agenda appear to have been somewhat overplayed. In the case of financial openness, some capital flows, such as foreign direct investment, do appear to confer the benefits claimed for them. But for others, particularly short-term capital flows, the benefits to growth are difficult to reap, whereas the risks, in terms of greater volatility and increased risk of crisis, loom large.
In the case of fiscal consolidation, the short-run costs in terms of lower output and welfare and higher unemployment have been underplayed, and the desirability for countries with ample fiscal space of simply living with high debt and allowing debt ratios to decline organically through growth is underappreciated.
Moreover, since both openness and austerity are associated with increasing income inequality, this distributional effect sets up an adverse feedback loop. The increase in inequality engendered by financial openness and austerity might itself undercut growth, the very thing that the neoliberal agenda is intent on boosting. There is now strong evidence that inequality can significantly lower both the level and the durability of growth (Ostry, Berg, and Tsangarides, 2014).
The evidence of the economic damage from inequality suggests that policymakers should be more open to redistribution than they are. Of course, apart from redistribution, policies could be designed to mitigate some of the impacts in advance—for instance, through increased spending on education and training, which expands equality of opportunity (so-called predistribution policies). And fiscal consolidation strategies—when they are needed—could be designed to minimize the adverse impact on low-income groups. But in some cases, the untoward distributional consequences will have to be remedied after they occur by using taxes and government spending to redistribute income. Fortunately, the fear that such policies will themselves necessarily hurt growth is unfounded (Ostry, 2014).
Finding the balance
These findings suggest a need for a more nuanced view of what the neoliberal agenda is likely to be able to achieve. The IMF, which oversees the international monetary system, has been at the forefront of this reconsideration.
For example, its former chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, said in 2010 that “what is needed in many advanced economies is a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation, not a fiscal noose today.” Three years later, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the institution believed that the U.S. Congress was right to raise the country’s debt ceiling “because the point is not to contract the economy by slashing spending brutally now as recovery is picking up.” And in 2015 the IMF advised that countries in the euro area “with fiscal space should use it to support investment.”
On capital account liberalization, the IMF’s view has also changed—from one that considered capital controls as almost always counterproductive to greater acceptance of controls to deal with the volatility of capital flows. The IMF also recognizes that full capital flow liberalization is not always an appropriate end-goal, and that further liberalization is more beneficial and less risky if countries have reached certain thresholds of financial and institutional development.
Chile’s pioneering experience with neoliberalism received high praise from Nobel laureate Friedman, but many economists have now come around to the more nuanced view expressed by Columbia University professor Joseph Stiglitz (himself a Nobel laureate) that Chile “is an example of a success of combining markets with appropriate regulation”
(2002). Stiglitz noted that in the early years of its move to neoliberalism, Chile imposed “controls on the inflows of capital, so they wouldn’t be inundated,” as, for example, the first Asian-crisis country, Thailand, was a decade and a half later. Chile’s experience (the country now eschews capital controls), and that of other countries, suggests that no fixed agenda delivers good outcomes for all countries for all times. Policymakers, and institutions like the IMF that advise them, must be guided not by faith, but by evidence of what has worked. ■
Saturday, May 28, 2016
Thursday, May 26, 2016
ஈழ தேசியப் பிரச்சனையில் நிலப்பிரச்சனை
ஈழதேசியப் பிரச்சனையில்
நிலப்பிரச்சனை
Retired Land Commissioner of Eastern Province
Karthirgamathamby Kurunathan
நிலப்பிரச்சனை
Retired Land Commissioner of Eastern Province
Karthirgamathamby Kurunathan
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
ENB Special reports – Floods
இலங்கையில் நாடு தழுவிய பேரனர்த்தம்.
மலைச்சரிவில் மூச்சிழந்தது அரநாயக்காவில் மூன்று கிராமம்!
வெள்ளக்காட்டில் மூழ்கியது கிளிநொச்சி நகரம்!
கூடவே உலகமய கொழும்பு மாநகரம்!
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* Some 53 major reservoirs are spilling while 73 are 82 per cent full.
* From the highlands of Kandy and Nuwara Eliya to the lowlands of Hambantota and Batticaloa, the severe weather conditions left a trail of devastation across 16 of the country’s 25 administrative districts.
*Kegalle, Kalutara, Badulla, Moneragala, Kandy, Ratnapura, Kurunegala Nuwara Eliya and Matale, remain at high risk of landslides, cut slopes and rock falls.
*Colombo needed a minimum of 1,000 acres of lowland to safely facilitate water retention in order to avert future flooding in the region. “We have, however, just 600 acres,” he said. “In order to secure the region we have to take steps to find 400 more acres of lowland. That will take a minimum of two to three years.”
கிணறுகளின் நீரை பாவிக்க வேண்டாம்
25-05-2016 02:37 AM
கொழும்பு மாவட்டத்தில், வெள்ளநீரினால் அசுத்தமடைந்துள்ள கிணறுகள் மற்றும் குழாய்க் கிணறுகளில் இருந்து பெறப்படும் மாதிரி தண்ணீரைப் பரிசோதனைக்கு உட்படுத்தி, அக்கிணறுகளில் உள்ள தண்ணீரின் சுத்தத்தன்மை தொடர்பில் அறிவிக்கும் வரையிலும், அக்கிணறுகளின் தண்ணீரை எக்காரணத்துக்காகவும் பயன்படுத்தவேண்டாமென, நீர் முகாமைத்துவ சபை, மக்களிடம் கேட்டுக்கொண்டுள்ளது.
நீர் ஊற்றுமூலங்களில் தண்ணீரைப் பரிசோதனைக்கு உட்படுத்தவேண்டுமாயின், அதற்கு தேவையான ஏற்பாடுகள் மேற்கொள்ளப்படும் என்றும். தேவையேற்படின் 0718587628 / 0776528445 / 0718605592 / 0714414681 ஆகிய அலைபேசி இலக்கங்களுக்குத் தொடர்புகளை ஏற்படுத்தி, மேலதிக விவரங்களைப் பெற்றுக்கொள்ள முடியும் என்றும் அச்சபையின் தலைவர் எஸ்.காதர் தெரிவித்தார்.
Special reports – Floods
Kelani crisis largely man-madeBy Anushiya Sathisraja
Shrinking open spaces, illegal constructions, the lack of proper waste disposal and inefficient drainage systems contributed to the worst flooding in 27 years in Colombo and its suburbs, a senior official of the Irrigation Department said.
People filling up lowlands for construction and choked stormwater drains and other water conduits deepened the crisis.
Clogged drainage and canals in and around the city are blocking the flow of water to the river and sea, Irrigation Department Acting Director-General T.P. Alwis said. “The reason for this is that the canal beds are much lower than the sea or river level, and as a result, the water does not drain out,” he said.A major contributory factor to the flooding has been the filling in of marshlands for development purposes.
Mr. Alwis said flooding in Kelaniya worsened this year primarily due to a drop in the city’s ability to absorb water because most of the marsh or wetlands in and around Kelaniya had been filled for building houses or other construction.
The flooding around Colombo had been extraordinarily severe despite the water level of the Kelani River reaching 7.3 feet compared to 7.8 feet during the 1989 floods.
In 1989, more than 60,000 persons were affected in the Colombo district while islandwide 300,000 were displaced and more than 300 killed. Most of the deaths were reported from the Bulathkohupitiya area, which was hit by a landslide, killing 244 people. This time, more than 185,000 people are suffering from flooding in the Colombo district, with three deaths reported.
The water levels of the major tanks are high, the Irrigation Department said.
Aerial view of floods in Sri Lanka - Colombo Aranayaka
Some 53 major reservoirs are spilling while 73 are 82 per cent full. Mr Alwis said the spill gates of 20 big tanks have been opened, and after 2014 this is the first time all irrigation tanks have a large water supply.
According to the latest update onFriday from the Disaster Management Centre (DMC), 64 deaths have been reported islandwide and 131 declared missing from the landslide in Aranayake. More than 425, 000 people belonging to 100,000 families have been displaced with nearly 320,000 people living in shelters due to the devastation caused by floods, landslides and heavy winds in 22 of the districts.
From the highlands of Kandy and Nuwara Eliya to the lowlands of Hambantota and Batticaloa, the severe weather conditions left a trail of devastation across 16 of the country’s 25 administrative districts.
In the Gampaha district some 321, 350 people (75, 035 families) have been hit by the overflowing of the Kelani river.
The DMC also confirmed that 1,900 persons in Aranayake and another 2,221 in Bulathkohupitiya are suffering hardship caused by landslides. In the Kegalle district 28,909 persons are affected (see separate story).
Among the other areas hit are Ratnapura, with 3,858 people needing assistance, Central Province (5,007 people) ,Northern Province (37,001) and Puttalam (24,874).
Kegalle, Kalutara, Badulla, Moneragala, Kandy, Ratnapura, Kurunegala Nuwara Eliya and Matale, remain at high risk of landslides, cut slopes and rock falls.
Similar to the causes leading to the floods, made-made actions were attributed to the increasing landslides and rock falls.
The National Building Research Organisation (NBRO), the organisation focused on minimising landslides, struggles with no powers, a senior NBRO official said.
NBRO Landslide and Research Head R.M.S. Bandara said bad land use practices and water management and non-engineered constructions were the leading man-made causes of landslides.
“There are constructions in landslide-prone areas that lack proper retaining structures, and added to that are cutting failures. Most people in areas of risk are unaware that rainwater management is essential is preventing landslide and related disasters. “It is essential to divert rainwater to the nearest stream or waterway,”, Mr. Bandara emphasised.
Aranayake Landslde Live And Colombo Flood 2016 Sri Lanka. අරනායක නායා යෑම සජීවීව.
Kolonnawa
“Agriculture, road development, local government, environment, railways, education, police, and disaster management authorities should co-ordinate to ensure the safety of the public and prevent landslides.”
Apart from issuing clearance certificates, handing over rain gauges, landslide hazard zone mapping, creating awareness programmes and research, the NBRO has no powers to take legal action against those who do not obtain the NBRO certificate for constructions, carry out haphazard steepening of slopes or fail to follow proper water management and land use.
Mr. Bandara said residents should report to the District Secretary’s offices if they notice any abnormalities such as rock slides, unusual seepage of water and bulges on slopes.
With the increase of landslides and floods worsening experts have called for better methods in minimising landslides.
Sri Lanka floods: worst affected Colombo-most rainfall Kilinochchi
Professor Kapila Dahanayake, a geologist from University of Peradeniya, said a mechanism should also be introduced, with the advice of irrigation officials, to harvest floodwater at higher levels without letting almost 80 per cent of it drain out to the sea.
“Concrete columns should be used so that filling the land is avoided while increasing the number of culverts, both to allow the free flow of water,” Prof. Dahanayake said.
The Meteorology Department’s Director of Forecasting, Sarath Premalal, said that after 13 years this week’s rainfall, measuring 450mm, was the highest recorded in the country since the previous maximum of 700mm.
Strong windy conditions over the country and in the sea areas around the island will continue during next few days due to the meeting of wind feeding to the system. There is a high possibility to sudden increase of rain in the south-western part of the country. Very heavy rainfall of 100-150mm is also expected in some areas.
உலகமய கொழும்பு தலைநகர் வெள்ளத்தில்
Issues of responsibility muddy the waters
By Sandun Jayawardana
Kaduwela
Colombo’s flooding problem is far more complex than an issue of drainage maintainance, says the chairman of the Land Reclamation and Development Corporation, W.M.A.S. Iddawela.
He said it was easy to claim that the floods in Colombo increased in severity due to poor maintenance of drainage systems, as some were alleging.
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| மண்சரிவின் மடியில் மக்கள் |
“The issue is far more complex and must be looked at from a professional level,” he stressed.
For example, Mr. Iddawela said, the Land Reclamation and Development Corporation was in charge of 44km of the canal system in Colombo. Responsibilities regarding much of the drainage system, on the other hand, lay with the Colombo Municipal Council (CMC).
A collective of several agencies – including the Department of Irrigation, Urban Development Authority (UDA) and Coast Conservation Department – must co-operate to maintain the region’s flood management system, he said.
While the Kelani River bursting its banks greatly contributed to the severe flooding, irregular constructions had heaped enormous pressure on the environment, Mr. Iddawela said. The situation had become unsustainable, he argued.
He cited the Werassa Ganga Development Project, which saw the development of the Bellanwila walking track and surrounding region, as an example of good construction. The project had helped put an end to frequent floods in the Kesbewa and Piliyandala areas. “The project is a testament to how sustainable construction can help mitigate flood disasters,” Mr. Iddawela said.
He said under the World Bank-funded Metro Colombo Urban Development Project, a stronger storm drainage system for Kolonnawa, which has experienced some of the worst flooding to hit Colombo, would be built.
Mr. Iddawela revealed Colombo needed a minimum of 1,000 acres of lowland to safely facilitate water retention in order to avert future flooding in the region. “We have, however, just 600 acres,” he said. “In order to secure the region we have to take steps to find 400 more acres of lowland. That will take a minimum of two to three years.”
He said it was essential to identify all low-lying areas where construction has taken place because they were vulnerable to flooding.
“A major problem is the lack of pumping stations along the Kelani River to pump out excess water,” another official working for the corporation said, pointing out that people living along the flood plains and next to canals have been hit hardest by the flooding, precipitated by heavy rains from May 15-16 that caused a sharp rise in water levels of the Kelani River.
“We have called for tenders on setting up several pumping stations and hope they will be completed by late this year or early next year,” the official, a Deputy General Manager (DGM) of the corporation, said.
She said agencies needed to discuss to what extent climate change was causing such destruction.
Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) Commissioner V.K.A. Anura rejected accusations that the drainage systems under CMC control had not been properly maintained.
“The bottom line is that we have not received this much of rain in Colombo since 2002. We were simply overwhelmed by the deluge,” he said. Mr. Anura likened what happened to having a barrel of water poured on the ground at once instead of a tap being turned on.
The Municipal Commissioner conceded the drainage system in Colombo was extremely old and in need of urgent renovation. He said several projects were underway to improve the system but these would take up to two years to complete.
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| முறிந்த உலகமய சீன நெடுஞ்சாலை |
He said the main concern for authorities was that the water level in the river was continuing to fluctuate as heavy rains in these areas continued.
While many of the affected who lived next to the river had been living in illegal constructions, Mr. Junaid said he did not believe that illegal constructions or the dumping of garbage had played a decisive role in this particular flood. “The rains were simply too much,” he said.
The Ministry of Megapolis and Western Development has ambitious plans set out to control flooding in Colombo.
Tenders are to be called soon to construct two underground tunnels to take rainwater to the sea as a long-term solution, Ministry Secretary Nihal Rupasinghe said. He pointed out there were currently only four main outlets to discharge Colombo’s rainwater. These are located at Wellawatta, Dehiwela, Nagalagam Street and Mutwal.
When the water level of the Kelani River rises to this extent, however, these outlets cannot cope with the volume of water. Flooding also forces authorities to stop discharging water from Nagalagam Street, which is an outlet to the Kelani River.
Mr. Rupasinghe estimated it would take roughly another two-and-a-half years for the tunnel system to be put in place to control the rainwater more effectively. He stressed improvements to the drainage system was being done in the meantime in areas such as Kolonnawa and Grandpass.
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Not Just Climate Change And Global Warming
by Emil van der Poorten
As one who believes that climate change driven by man’s insistence on refusing to accept that his behaviour is responsible for global warming, I have little doubt that the catastrophic weather we have experienced and are continuing to experience as I write this could have been avoided, to a significant extent, if we lived up to our boast that we Sri Lankans are more intelligent than the ‘lesser’ mammals!
That said, let’s look at what factors other than willy nilly industrialization, with the attendant indiscriminate use of non-renewable fossil fuels, have contributed to what has been happening in Sri Lanka in the past couple of weeks.
Many in our neck of the woods who are in no danger of being engulfed by floodwaters are living in fear of boulders above their very modest habitations coming loose and burying them in the houses that they occupy. Interestingly, in an area that is extremely rocky, this was never a concern in the past.
Why? Because there was vegetation that would have stopped any errant boulder before it could do any damage. Not only are those ‘guard trees’ gone but the steep hillsides have suffered very serious erosion since the clearing of this land. You might well ask, “How did this come about?”
Well, in the “bad old days of Empire” and for several years after Sri Lanka became independent, the hilltops were ‘Crown reserves,’ if I remember the terminology right. It was an offence to, in any way whatsoever, try to change the vegetation there.
The landslide in Aranayake, Kegalle buried three villages – Siripura, Elangapitiya, and Pallebage last week
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| மூன்று கிராமங்களின் மூச்சை முழுதாக நிறுத்திய மலை-மண் சரிவு- அரநாயக்க |
You would be hard put to find even one of these establishments that has waste disposal of any description. Why should they bother because guess where garbage goes? As for toilets and human-wastes a little vignette might be appropriate at this point.When the A10 was being carpeted around what is now the 17th Km marker, one enterprising local took advantage of what was intended to be the temporary removal of a large cement direction sign, by the Road Development Authority (RDA). On completion of carpeting of that particular section of the highway, when they sought to place the sign where it used to be, they found the space occupied by a Petti Kadey, a small kiosk. When they and those concerned about the sign being removed sought to put it back where it was, the owner of the Petti Kadey established ‘title’ to it by the simple expedient of having the local Pradeshiya Sabha issue a receipt (back-dated) for ‘payment of acreage tax’ or something to that effect.
Do I need to add to that narrative the fact that the most powerful politician in the area was a member of the Cabinet at the time and is still a member of that august body despite an alleged change of government and governing philosophy?Back to where this piece began: guess what happened to the hilltop forest reserves? Particularly, since Land Reform and Mr. Kobbekaduwa’s “emancipation of the Kandyan peasantry?” They became a happy hunting ground for those seeking any wood that could be sold.
Making that situation worse was the fact that, increasingly, because lower and lower grade timber was found acceptable for one use or another, trees that might have escaped the woodsman’s axe were cut down and sawn notwithstanding the fact that those doing so had no legal claim whatsoever to them.
This ‘hilltop invasion’ did not appear in isolation but was part of a larger devastation of the tree cover of the plantation land below. First the Jak (Artocarpus integrifolia) and other hard woods, Sapu (Champaca indica) and Lunumidella (Melia dubia) went, followed by the rubber trees which were felled for lumber (the bottom part of the trunk) and firewood (the rest of the tree). Then came the cocoa trees which also went to someone’s open-hearth fireplace! In a short time one of Sri Lanka’s largest cocoa estates (originally about 1500 acres) did not produce so much as one bean, leave alone thousands of pods of this now-very valuable crop!
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| கொழும்பு வெள்ளத்தில் மக்கள் |
Guinea A, as any one encountering it will vouch, does condition the soil because its roots loosen the top soil enabling the rain water to penetrate deeper than it otherwise would. The bad news is that if this grass is killed by burning, the now-soft top soil can be easily eroded and in the absence of stone terraces, contour drains and silt-pits which used to be the order of the day in the matter of soil conservation in plantations of this kind, the damage can well be imagined.
Remember also that dry ‘mana,’ the local name for this high grass, burns very brightly and even if an arsonist is not born every day in our neck of the woods, there are enough of them to put a match to the grass every dry season. Another little result of this burning is the fact that the smoke kills off the wild bees in the vicinity. And guess what killing bees that are, by far, the most important pollinating agents on earth, do?
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| மூன்று கிராமங்களின் மூச்சை முழுதாக நிறுத்திய மலை-மண் சரிவு- அரநாயக்காவின் பாதை |
Yes, we can’t, in little un-industrialised Sri Lanka*, make a dent in global warming or climate change. We can, however, turn back the clock on the wanton destruction of our environment and the dire results of what has already been done by the simple expedient of applying time-tested, practical methods.
The problem is that all of that is dependent on one simple reality: a return to the rule of law and the application of that law without fear or favour.
Given what prevails there lies the “crunch.”
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குறிப்பு: தகவல் ஆதாரங்கள் புகைப்படங்கள் ஓளிநாடாக்கள் அனைத்தும், உள்ளூர் உலக ஊடங்களில் இருந்து எடுத்து தொகுக்கப்பட்டவை, நன்றி இதற்காக உண்மையில் உழைத்தவர்களுக்கு.
Sunday, May 22, 2016
வெள்ள விபரம் இன்று 23-05-2016
குறிப்பு: சேதங்களின் ஆழத்தையும் அகலத்தையும் நீளத்தையும் கோலத்தையும் காட்சிகளாகப் பார்க்கையில் கீழ்க்காணும் அதிகார பூர்வ ``ஊடக`` புள்ளி விபரம் கிஞ்சிற்றும் சரியானதாக தோன்றவில்லை. ஒரே ஒரு மலைச்சரிவில் மட்டும் மூன்று கிராமங்கள் மூழ்கின.===============================
Death toll rises to 82; 118 missing, 145,000 in camps
May 22, 2016, 11:16 pm The Island
By Maheesha Mudugamuwa
The death toll from last week's natural disasters has risen to 82; it is expected to increase within the next few days as rescue operations continue to look for another 118 missing people, according to the Disaster Management Centre (DMC).
Meanwhile, 30 people have been confirmed dead due to the landslide in Aranayake and 114 others are missing. Another part of the same mountain at Aranayake in Kegalle District had crashed on Saturday, but there were no casualties as residents had been evacuated following the first landslides, an official said.
According to the DMC, 34,476 people have been affected by torrential rains widespread floods, landslides, mudslides and high winds in 22 districts during last week with 29 people injured. Over 476 houses have reportedly been destroyed and thousands of others damaged; many of them are still under water.
After a week of massive flooding triggered by heavy rains, deluged capital city Colombo, too, is slowly beginning to dry out.
The Irrigation Department yesterday announced that the water levels of the Kelani River were receding.
Irrigation Department Director of Hydrology P. Hettiarachchi said the water level measured at Nagalagam Street was 5 feet and 6 inches as at 9.00 am yesterday.
The department blamed illegal constructions on the river banks for heavy floods experienced in the Colombo region.
In the Colombo District, over 145,000 people are still at evacuation centres and most of them are from the worst hit areas of Kolonnawa, Thimbirigasyaya, Kaduwela, Seethawaka and Colombo, according to the statistics of the Disaster Management Centre (DMC). More than 147,000 people in Colombo District have been affected by floods.
Relief workers are still trying to gain access to thousands of marooned people in need of food and clean water. The logistics of delivering food and other aid to the displaced had become a critical issue, the DMC said. With roads impassable because of flooding, most efforts will continue to be carried out by boats.
Landslide warning issued to Ratnapura, Kegalle, Kalutara, Kandy, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Matale has been further extended by the National Building Research Organisation (NBRO) and people living in landslide prone areas have been evacuated to safe locations.
The Meteorology Department yesterday pointed out that the weather was now returning to normal.
Asked whether the Southwest Monsoon was expected this week, the department’s Research, Training and Development Director S. Premalal told The Island that it couldn’t predict the due date of monsoon and it could only give predictions for next 24 hours.
On the second week of this month, the Met Department predicted a one-week delay in Southwest-monsoon reaching Sri Lanka this year due to the strong El Nino conditions that affected the country last year. Duty Meteorologist at the Met Department Janaka Kumara stated that due date for the monsoon was May 25, but this year it would reach the country during the first week of June.
The Met Department yesterday predicted showers in the Western, North-Western, Southern, Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and strong windy conditions over the country and in the sea areas would continue further particularly over the Southern, Eastern and Northern sea areas.
According to the Secretary to the Disaster Management Ministry, S. S Miyanawala, a task force of security forces personnel and those from the Civil Security Division will launch operations in the coming days to re-settle the displaced people. The government had released Rs. 92 million to District Secretaries and a further Rs. 55 million was on standby, he said.
Meanwhile, the international assistance for victims of floods and landslides started to arrive in the country on Saturday, following an urgent government appeal for foreign aid. India, Australia, Japan the United States, Nepal, China and Pakistan were among the donor countries as at yesterday.
As floods are beginning to recede,
The Health Ministry urged the public to be vigilant about diseases that could spread.
Director General of Health Services Dr. Palitha Mahipala said that with the flood waters receding there was a possibility of diseases such as diarrhoea, jaundice, typhoid, dengue and leptospirosis (rat fever) spreading through food and water.
He said awareness was important to prevent the spread of those diseases.
வெள்ளம் வரு முன் காத்தல்!
Tropical Storm to bring heavy rain and flooding to India and Sri Lanka this week
Eric Leister
By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
May 18, 2016; 8:01 AM ET
The first tropical cyclone of the season in the Bay of Bengal will track near the east coast of India this week, leading to additional flooding and widespread travel delays.
The depression, named BOB 01, currently has sustained winds of 75-92 km/h (45-55 mph). Gradual strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours.
As the cyclone spins near the coast of India, heavy rain will fall in northeastern Tamil Nadu and eastern Andhra Pradesh through at least Thursday.
Due to the close proximity to land, AccuWeather meteorologists think that there is a minimal threat for this low to become a significant tropical cyclone. However, the flood threat will not diminish.
Through Thursday, widespread rainfall of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rain is expected across the region.
The heaviest rain will fall from Chennai to Machilipatnam. These areas could see locally 300 mm (12 inches) of rain.
In Chennai, where the worst flooding in a century brought the city to a stand still in December, the heaviest rain will fall through Wednesday before drier weather returns late in the week. Flooding this week is not expected to be as severe as December's event; however, travel delays are likely. Rainfall has already surpassed
Heavy rain will also fall across Kerala and western Sri Lanka where downpours will continue into Thursday. Drenching rain has caused flooding in these areas and additional downpours will elevate the threat of flooding and mudslides.
The 2015 monsoon brought below-average rainfall to Kerala, so this early-season rainfall is needed across the region, despite the dangers. May is typically when southern India and Sri Lanka have an increase in rain from tropical lows and cyclones, which tend to develop during the leading edge of the monsoon.
At least eleven people were killed in flooding and mudslides, while more than 130,000 have been forced out of their homes, according to The Associated Press.
The depression is expected to turn northeast late this week and into this weekend as the heaviest rain shifts from India into Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Meteorologist Adam Douty contributed content to this story.
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Cyclone Roanu leaves at least 21 people dead in Bangladesh
Kristina Pydynowski
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
May 21, 2016; 5:15 PM ET
After causing devastating flooding and mudslides in Sri Lanka earlier in the week, Cyclone Roanu turned deadly again this weekend as it slammed into Bangladesh.
At least 21 people are dead with many more injured in coastal Bangladesh, according to Reuters.
The deaths occurred amid house collapses, landslides and a storm surge that broke embankments at two spots in Chittagong.
Bangladeshi men pull a loaded cart through a waterlogged street after heavy rainfall in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Saturday, May 21, 2016. Mixing of rain water and toxicwaste from industries has turned water green. (AP Photo/ A.M. Ahad)
Officials told Reuters that some places were inundated by a storm surge that was 0.9 to 1.2 meters (3 to 4 feet) above normal tide height.
The first tropical cyclone of the season in the Bay of Bengal made landfall in Bangladesh, just north of Chittagong, on Saturday.
While interaction with land is causing Roanu to weaken, in terms of damaging winds, the threat for flooding will persist across northeastern India and northern and coastal Myanmar on Sunday.
In northeastern India, this includes Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and eastern parts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
Widespread rainfall totals of 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) are expected, raising significant concerns for life-threatening flooding and landslides. Some communities could be cut off by damaged or flood-ravaged roads and bridges.
"There will be localized amounts in excess of 300 mm (12 inches)," AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards said. That is especially true in the higher terrain.
While the heaviest rain has departed, Bangladesh will face locally heavy thunderstorms into Sunday, which threatens to renew more flooding and interfere withcleanup operations.
Prior to the cyclone's arrival, Reuters reported that authorities in Bangladesh relocated about 500,000 people into 3,500 homes.
Roanu also turned deadly in Sri Lanka earlier in the week. The Associated Press reports that more than 70 people have been killed in landslides and flooding since Monday. Dozens are missing after mudslides devastated three villages in the central district of Kegalle.
While the rain spread from Sri Lanka, then up the eastern coast of India, intense heat worsened across western India as the circulation around Roanu pulled in dry and warmer air. On Thursday, Phalodi in Rajasthan set the all-time record high for India when temperatures soared to 51 C (123.8 F).
The extreme heat will ease for this weekend, but hot conditions will continue to put a strain on residents throughout western and northern India well into next week.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
What are El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño and La Niña are complex weather patterns resulting from variations in ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
Warmer or colder than average ocean temperatures in one part of the world can influence weather around the globe. Watch this Ocean Today video to see how this works.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The ENSO cycle is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific (approximately between the International Date Line and 120 degrees West).
La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Niño as the warm phase of ENSO. These deviations from normal surface temperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate.
El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.
El Niño
El Niño means The Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The name was chosen based on the time of year (around December) during which these warm waters events tended to occur.
The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.
Typical El Niño effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest. The presence of El Niño can significantly influence weather patterns, ocean conditions, and marine fisheries across large portions of the globe for an extended period of time.
La Niña
La Niña means The Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply "a cold event."
La Niña episodes represent periods of below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central Equatorial Pacific. Global climate La Niña impacts tend to be opposite those of El Niño impacts. In the tropics, ocean temperature variations in La Niña also tend to be opposite those of El Niño.
During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.
Friday, May 20, 2016
அறுமுனைப் போட்டியில் அம்மா ஆட்சியில்!
பதிவான வாக்குகளில்
41% வாக்குகள், 58% தொகுதிகள்
அம்மா ``அமோக`` வெற்றி!
தாண்டவத்தைச் சந்திக்க தயாராகு தமிழகமே!!
தமிழக தேர்தல் வாக்கு விகிதம்: அதிமுகவுக்கு 40.8சதவீத வாக்குகள்; திமுகவுக்கு 31.5 சதவீத வாக்குகள்
தமிழக சட்டமன்றத் தேர்தலில் 132 இடங்களைப் பெற்று வெற்றி பெற்றுள்ள அதிமுக, பதிவான மொத்த வாக்குகளில், சுமார் 40.8 சதவீத வாக்குகளைப் பெற்றுள்ளது.
இரண்டாம் இடம் பிடித்துள்ள திமுக 31.5 சதவீத வாக்குகளையும், அதன் கூட்டணி கட்சியான இந்திய தேசிய காங்கிரஸ் 6.5 சதவீத வாக்குகளையும் பெற்றுள்ளன. அடுத்த இடம் பிடித்துள்ள பாட்டாளி மக்கள் கட்சி 5.3%, பாரதிய ஜனதா கட்சி 2.9%, தேசிய முற்போக்கு திராவிட கழகம் 2.4%, நாம் தமிழர் கட்சி 1.1 சதவீத வாக்குகளைப் பெற்றுள்ளனர்.
மதிமுக 0. 9%, இந்திய கம்யூனிஸ்ட் 0.8%, விடுதலைச் சிறுத்தைகள் கட்சி பூஜ்ஜியம் புள்ளி 0.8% வாக்குகளையும் மார்க்ஸிஸ்ட் கம்யூனிஸ்ட் மற்றும் இந்திய யூனியன் முஸ்லீம் லீக் தலா 0. 7 % வாக்குகளையும் பெற்றுள்ளனர். நோட்டாவுக்கு 1.3 சதவீத வாக்குகள் கிடைத்திருக்க, சுயேச்சை உள்ளிட்ட மற்ற கட்சிகள் மீதமுள்ள 4.5 சதவீத வாக்குகளைப் பகிர்ந்து கொண்டிருப்பதாக இந்திய தேர்தல் ஆணையம் தெரிவித்துள்ளது
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"சயனைட்" நாவல் - ஒரு பார்வை "தங்கமாலை கழுத்துக்களே கொஞ்சம் நில்லுங்கள்! நஞ்சுமாலை சுமந்தவரை நினைவில் கொள்ளுங்கள், எம் இனத்த...
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சமரன்: தோழர்கள் மீது எடப்பாடி கொலை வெறித்தாக்குதல், கழகம்...
