Beware the great 2016 financial crisis

Beware the great 2016 financial crisis, 

warns leading City pessimist

Albert Edwards

Albert Edwards joins RBS in warning of a new crash, saying
oil price plunge and deflation from emerging markets will overwhelm central banks, tip the markets and collapse the eurozone
Larry Elliott Economics editor

Tuesday 12 January 2016 19.25 GMT Last modified on Wednesday 13 January 2016 00.20 GMT

The City of London’s most vocal “bear”* has warned that the world is heading for a financial crisis as severe as the crash of 2008-09 that could prompt the collapse of the eurozone.

Albert Edwards, strategist at the bank Société Générale, said the west was about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them. His comments came as analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland urged investors to “sell everything” ahead of an imminent stock market crash.

“Developments in the global economy will push the US back into recession,” Edwards told an investment conference in London. 

“The financial crisis will reawaken. It will be every bit as bad as in 2008-09 and it will turn very ugly indeed.”

Fears of a second serious financial crisis within a decade have been heightened by the turbulence in markets since the start of the year. Share prices have fallen rapidly and a slump in the cost of oil has left Brent crude trading at barely above $30 a barrel.

“Can it get any worse? Of course it can,” said Edwards, the most prominent of the stock market bears – *the terms for analysts who think shares are overvalued and will fall in price. “Emerging market currencies are still in freefall. The US corporate sector is being crushed by the appreciation of the dollar.”

The Soc Gen strategist said the US economy was in far worse shape than the country’s central bank, the US Federal Reserve, realised. “We have seen massive credit expansion in the US. This is not for real economic activity; it is borrowing to finance share buybacks.”

Edwards attacked what he said was the “incredible conceit” of central bankers, who had failed to learn the lessons of the housing bubble that led to the financial crisis and slump of 2008-09.

“They didn’t understand the system then and they don’t understand how they are screwing up again. Deflation is upon us and the central banks can’t see it.”

Edwards said the dollar had risen by as much as the Japanese yen had in the 1990s, an upwards move that pushed Japan into deflation and caused solvency problems for the Asian country’s banks. He added that a sign of the crisis to come was the collapse in demand for credit in China.

“That happens when people lose confidence that policymakers know what they are doing. This is what is going to happen in Europe and the US.”

Europe has shown tentative signs of recovery in the past year, but Edwards said the efforts of the European Central Bank to push the euro lower and growth higher would come to nothing in the event of a fresh downturn. “If the global economy goes back into recession, it is curtains for the eurozone.”

Countries such as France, Spain and Italy would not accept the rising unemployment that would be associated with another recession, he said. “What a disaster the euro has been: it is a doomsday machine in favour of the German economy.”

Source: The Guardian Uk 13-jan-2016

Entire JK our integral part: India

Entire JK our integral part: India

"We have seen recent media reports stating that various options are under consideration in Pakistan regarding the political status of Gilgit-Baltistan.

 "India's position is crystal clear on this. The entire state of Jammu and Kashmir which includes areas currently under Pakistan's occupation is an integral part of Union of India," External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson VikasSwarup said.

Press Trust of India

New Delhi, Publish Date: Jan 15 2016 12:44AM | Updated Date: Jan 15 2016 1:25AM

ENB File Photo

In sharp reaction to Islamabad's reported move to make strategically located Gilgit-Baltistan a province, India today said the entire Jammu and Kashmir including Pakistan Administered Kashmir is its integral part.

"We have seen recent media reports stating that various options are under consideration in Pakistan regarding the political status of Gilgit-Baltistan.

"India's position is crystal clear on this. The entire state of Jammu and Kashmir which includes areas currently under Pakistan's occupation is an integral part of Union of India," External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson VikasSwarup said.

Gilgit-Baltistan is strategically located and provides the only land link with China. The USD 46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is also proposed to pass through the area, which India objects due to the disputed status of the region.

He said India's concerns are regarding "exploitation of resources" and implementation of economic projects in Pakistan Administered Kashmir are well known and have been shared with all the countries and organisations concerned.

There were reports that Pakistan was planning to make Gilgit-Baltistan as its fifth province.
Elections were held in Gilgit-Baltistan region in June last year. India had objected to the elections strongly, saying it is an attempt by Pakistan to "camouflage its forcible and illegal occupation" of the regions which are its integral part.

Replying to a question on whether India was seeking extradition of Khalistani militant Paramjeet Singh alias Pamma from Portugal when some Sikh advocacy groups were opposing such a move, Swarup said government wants him to face trial for the crimes he committed in India.

"As far as we are concerned, Paramjit is a known terrorist and has Interpol Red Corner notices against him. He was detained by authorities in Portugal on December 18, 2015 based on these Red Corner alert.

"He is accused of a number of criminal cases in India including the murder of the president of Rastriya Sikh Sangat and for this reason we are seeking his extradition from Portugal," the spokesperson said. 

BORDERS MIA

BORDERS MIA

MIA's Borders: artist braves boats and barbed wire in video crusade for refugees
Rap artist releases self-directed video for new track Borders that follows refugees on hazardous journey to Europe, as lyrics chastise governments’ failure to act

Harriet Gibsone
Friday 27 November 2015 14.28 GMT Last modified on Wednesday 9 December 2015 14.25 GMT

Most artists would be incapable of approaching a subject as serious as the refugee crisis in song. Not MIA, however, whose new album is on course to politicise pop once again. “The world I talked about 10 years ago is still the same,” she recently posted on Twitter. “That’s why it’s hard for me to say it again on a new LP.”

Today, the British artist of Sri Lankan descent premiered Borders, a track that proves she remains unique in her ability to implement ideas about pop culture and important global topics. With it comes a self-directed video, which makes a compelling statement on the continuing migration crisis, chastising the response of European politicians and lamenting the arrival of border fences to keep out migrants. The video mimics the hazardous journeys faced by migrants, showing a flotilla of boats laden with refugees. Other scenes show individuals scaling massive fences topped with barbed wire, a reference to the series of securitised border fences erected by number of countries to keep out refugees.

The track, which sonically fuses eastern and western styles, questions the fabric of modern society – politics, identities, privilege, “being bae”, “breaking the internet” and smartphones – before reducing the world down to its essentials: your values, your beliefs, your families, your power.

Borders is the first track we’ve heard from new album Matahdatah since Swords back in July. According to a statement from her label, both songs and videos are part of “a truly global and characteristically DIY MIA project. The two pieces will ultimately come together in a larger body of work that explores the concept of Borders, an element of which will be a full-length album and film experience entitled Matahdatah.”


Her fifth record will be released on Interscope Records. Until then, you can watch the video below.
The Guardian

பாணின் விலை அதிகரிப்பு

பாணின் விலை அதிகரிப்பு
12-01-2016 08:52 PM

450 கிராம் பாணின் விலை, ஒரு ரூபாயால் நாளை நள்ளிரவு முதல் அதிகரிக்கப்படவுள்ளதாக பேக்கரி உரிமையாளர் சங்கம் அறிவித்துள்ளது. 

இதன்படி, தற்போது, 450 கிராம் பாணின் விலையானது 54 ரூபாயாக இருக்கையில், நாளை நள்ளிரவு முதல் அதிகரிக்கப்படவுள்ள ஒரு ரூபாயுடன் சேர்த்து, 450 கிராம் பாணின் புதிய விலை, 55 ரூபாயாக அமையவுள்ளது. 

`உலகமய` அரசின் உள்ளூர் ஆட்சி!

அன்றும் இன்றும் அந்நிய மயமே ஆட்சி நலம்!

Sri Lankan police fire on protesting free trade zone workers
By W.A. Sunil and Ruwan Liyanage
1 June 2011

On Monday, thou sands of police officers launched a violent attack on free trade zone (FTZ) workers in Katunayake who were protesting against the Sri Lankan government’s private sector pension bill. During the resulting clashes, police twice opened fire with live ammunition. Altogether, more than 200 workers were injured and about 100 arrested.

After the confrontation, which included the mobilisation of thousands of troops, the government shut down the FTZ for two days. Thousands of police and security personnel have been stationed in the area, which is close to the capital, Colombo. All vehicles are being checked and any FTZ workers who live outside the zone are being prevented from entering.

This is the second police crackdown against FTZ workers in months. In February, the police attacked striking workers at the Hong Kong-owned Bratex factory, an undergarment producer in Katunayake, and arrested several workers on trumped-up charges.

Monday’s protest was held in direct defiance of the Free Trade Zone and General Services Workers Union (FTZGSWU), which had called on workers not to stage any industrial action. The demonstration was a continuation of the struggle initiated by the FTZ workers on May 24 against the pension bill, which will effectively cut wages and require at least 10 years of continuous employment to qualify for a monthly pension amounting to just 15 percent of a wage.

Workers in zone No.1 of Katunayake FTZ, which has three zones, began the walkout. By about 9.30 a.m. thousands of workers had joined the demonstration, which was peaceful until the police intervened.

Between 11.30 a.m. and noon, according to workers, police entered zone No.1 through the main gate and began to attack the protesters with batons and tear gas. When workers retreated into factories for their safety, the police forcibly entered the premises and continued the assault. Angry protesters retaliated with whatever they could find. The police then fired live ammunition at workers, injuring a number of them, one critically.

After hearing about the police attack, at around 3.00 p.m. thousands of workers from zones No.2 and 3 joined the protest, condemning the police action and demanding the release of their arrested colleagues. By this stage, about 40,000 workers, mostly young females, were involved. They flooded onto the main road running through the FTZ, demonstrating and chanting slogans against the government.

With the police unable to control the large crowd, the government deployed police special task force (STF) officers and hundreds of soldiers. Army officers asked for a return to work, but the workers demanded the release of all those arrested. When the police refused to do so, outraged workers attacked the police station with stones.

Some 15 police personnel, including high ranking officers, were reportedly injured, and several police vehicles damaged. Police again opened fire on about 500 workers who stormed the station, wounding at least eight.

Inspector General of Police, Mahinda Balasuriya, claimed that the protesting workers had tried to grab arms from the police station—an allegation that protesters denied. Balasuriya defended opening fire on the demonstrators. “When a large crowd stormed in, police fired in the air and then later fired at them to control the gathering,” he declared at a press conference.

Speaking to the WSWS, one worker said some of those arrested could not walk because of severe injuries. Their clothes had been drenched in blood. “The police dragged captured workers along the ground, while beating and kicking them,” an eyewitness said.

Local residents and FTZ workers at Biyagama, closer to Colombo, and Koggala in south also condemned the police attack

Sri Lanka police brutality emerge on Sirisena anniversary

ENB Poster 12-01-16

Sri Lanka police brutality emerge on Sirisena anniversary
By Our Police Correspondent
Jan 10, 2016 12:29 PM GMT+0530 | 1 Comment(s)

USE OF FORCE:  File photo of Sri Lanka's riot police

ECONOMYNEXT - Barely a month after Sri Lanka’s Human Rights Commission censured the police for brutally assaulting university students, investigators have found another horrific excess that killed one man and wounded many, including children and pregnant women.

As President Maithripala Sirisena marked his first year in office on Saturday, senior investigators found that the Embilipitiya police led by an Assistant Superintendent (ASP) had gone on the rampage seriously undermining his good governance credentials.

A senior investigator said they discovered that the ASP and his men not only carried out the illegal action, but also tampered with evidence and altered official records to mislead senior officials and the judiciary.

Criminal investigators had two versions, one from the police – 21 of whom have been transferred out of the Embilipitiya police pending investigations into the January 4 incident, and the other from the victims.

Police initially maintained that they were responding to a 119 emergency call complaining of loud speakers being used at a party and causing disturbance to neighbours. Four police on mobile patrol had given conflicting statements to investigators on how they were beaten by party goers.

The police had also fired an automatic rifle, a fact that had been suppressed from the highest level in the police department, an investigator who asked not to be named said.

Police had said they summoned reinforcements and in the ensuing clash a man fell to his death from the third floor.

"We have found that policemen did not face any danger at any stage of the incident, but the only explanation is that an officer used excessive force to attack unarmed people as collective punishment," he said.

Party goers say that four policemen on mobile patrol had demanded alcohol and when it was refused there had been fisticuffs resulting in the subsequent carnage.

Investigations showed that the 119 call was not about the level of sound, but it had been made when more than a dozen police in civilian clothes armed with sticks and poles barged into the party and went on the rampage smashing everything within reach.

Witnesses told investigators that even an ASP had been carrying a stick and was seen beating women and children.

There was blood splattered on the walls of the banquet hall. It is at this stage a man is either pushed or falls from the third floor while trying to escape the marauding police.

Security has been stepped up in Embilipitiya Sunday ahead of the funeral of the Sumith Jayawardana, 29 who was a father of one. His pregnant wife was among those assaulted by police. The inquest into the death is due to take place on Monday.

The Human Rights Commission which last month ruled that police had violated not only local laws but also the UN Human Rights Charter (This ruling was given after police Senior Superintendent Ajith Rohana erroneously attempted to take cover of the UN  charter to justify attacking students).

The police has reportedly appealed the HRC decision which awarded damages to the victims and ordered the IGP to take disciplinary action against the police culprits.

The commission has now uncovered shocking details of other police brutality in Embilipitiya in recent  times while investigating the latest case of abuse.

“The Embilipitiya incident is a good example of how the mind-set of the police is yet to change although a new administration that promised good governance is in power,” a human rights official said. 
(COLOMBO, January 10, 2016)

=======================================================================================
Police brutality in Sri Lanka

January 8 2016
29 வயது சுமித் பிரசன்னாவின் பொலிஸ் படுகொலையை எதிர்த்து   எம்பிலிப்பிட்டி மக்கள் போராட்டம்

Oct 2015

HNDA Student Protest 

June 2011*
Katunayaka Free Trade Garament Factory workers  brutally Attacked by SL Police

June 2008
A protest demonstration held by Inter University Bhikku Front to demand the government to solve their issues was attacked by police using tear gas and water cannons. Later the Buddhist Bhikkus were baton charged and some of them were dragged into police vehicles. 11 Buddhist Bhikkus have been arrested by the police after dispersing the peaceful demonstration by the Bhikkus.

Ratnapura

===============================
*Katunayaka Free Trade Garament Factory workers  brutally Attacked by SL Police

Sri Lankan police fire on protesting free trade zone workers
By W.A. Sunil and Ruwan Liyanage 
1 June 2011
On Monday, thou sands of police officers launched a violent attack on free trade zone (FTZ) workers in Katunayake who were protesting against the Sri Lankan government’s private sector pension bill. During the resulting clashes, police twice opened fire with live ammunition. Altogether, more than 200 workers were injured and about 100 arrested.

After the confrontation, which included the mobilisation of thousands of troops, the government shut down the FTZ for two days. Thousands of police and security personnel have been stationed in the area, which is close to the capital, Colombo. All vehicles are being checked and any FTZ workers who live outside the zone are being prevented from entering.

This is the second police crackdown against FTZ workers in months. In February, the police attacked striking workers at the Hong Kong-owned Bratex factory, an undergarment producer in Katunayake, and arrested several workers on trumped-up charges.

Monday’s protest was held in direct defiance of the Free Trade Zone and General Services Workers Union (FTZGSWU), which had called on workers not to stage any industrial action. The demonstration was a continuation of the struggle initiated by the FTZ workers on May 24 against the pension bill, which will effectively cut wages and require at least 10 years of continuous employment to qualify for a monthly pension amounting to just 15 percent of a wage.

Workers in zone No.1 of Katunayake FTZ, which has three zones, began the walkout. By about 9.30 a.m. thousands of workers had joined the demonstration, which was peaceful until the police intervened.

Between 11.30 a.m. and noon, according to workers, police entered zone No.1 through the main gate and began to attack the protesters with batons and tear gas. When workers retreated into factories for their safety, the police forcibly entered the 

premises and continued the assault. Angry protesters retaliated with whatever they could find. The police then fired live ammunition at workers, injuring a number of them, one critically.

After hearing about the police attack, at around 3.00 p.m. thousands of workers from zones No.2 and 3 joined the protest, condemning the police action and demanding the release of their arrested colleagues. By this stage, about 40,000 workers, mostly young females, were involved. They flooded onto the main road running through the FTZ, demonstrating and chanting slogans against the government.

With the police unable to control the large crowd, the government deployed police special task force (STF) officers and hundreds of soldiers. Army officers asked for a return to work, but the workers demanded the release of all those arrested. When the police refused to do so, outraged workers attacked the police station with stones.

Some 15 police personnel, including high ranking officers, were reportedly injured, and several police vehicles damaged. Police again opened fire on about 500 workers who stormed the station, wounding at least eight.

Inspector General of Police, Mahinda Balasuriya, claimed that the protesting workers had tried to grab arms from the police station—an allegation that protesters denied. Balasuriya defended opening fire on the demonstrators. “When a large crowd stormed in, police fired in the air and then later fired at them to control the gathering,” he declared at a press conference........

Local residents and FTZ workers at Biyagama, closer to Colombo, and Koggala in south also condemned the police attack.

I will not govern the country without advice & guidance of Maha Sanga – President

I will not govern the country without advice & guidance of Maha Sanga – President

President Maithripala Sirisena says he would not govern the country without the advice and guidance of the Maha Sanga.

He said a group of extremists are creating conspiracies stating that the government is going to deprive the place of the Buddhism through the new amendments to the constitution. He requested everyone not to contribute that fundamental sin which divides the country, nation as well as Maha Sanga.

The President made these remarks at the ceremony held today (Jan. 10) at the Sri Bodhiraja Temple, Colombo Fort to offer the Chief Sanganayaka position of the Colombo to the Chief Incumbent of the Sri Bodhiraja Temple, Colombo Fort, Karmavagacharya of the Asgiri Sector of Shyamopali Maha Nikaya Nikula Dharmakeerthi Ven. Sri Seelarathana Pannasarabhidana Nayaka Thero.

The President emphasized that the new constitution never includes any clause to harm the place of Buddhism or the unity of the country. “The people who make such statements are doing so not because of their patriotism or the responsive feeling for the Buddha Shasana, but because of their ambition to reach their political goals”, the President said.

“I am bound to protect the Buddha Shasana according to my pledge given to the people when I undertook the leadership of this country on January 08, 2015. I also am bound to protect it as a real Buddhist who was born and brought with the influence of the temple in the village. I will be committed to build a fair society for justice by safeguarding not only the Buddhism, but also all religions of this country”, President Sirisena said.

The President presented the vijinipatha (the fan) to Ven. Sri Seelarathana Pannasarabhidana Thero at this occasion.

The President also was presented the book ‘Pannasarabhinandana’ in this ceremony.

Sampanthan insists no demand for a separate state

Sampanthan insists no demand for a separate state
By admin on January 12, 2016 -

Opposition leader and Tamil National Alliance (TNA) leader R Sampanthan today insisted that there is no more a demand for a separate Tamil state in Sri Lanka.

Speaking in Parliament today the TNA leader said that the Tamils have, during the recent elections, backed a political solution within the framework of a united and undivided and indivisible Sri Lanka.

He said the Tamils hope the new Constitution which has been proposed, will resolve the National issue.

Sampanthan said that the demand for a separate state resulted in a war which pushed the country backwards.

கழகக் கை நூல்: காலனியாதிக்கமும் காலநிலைப் பேரிடர்களும்

நூல் அறிமுகம்

தமிழக வெள்ளப் பேரிடர் தொடர்பாக கழகம், `வெள்ளம் வரட்சியினால் ஏற்படும் பேரிடர்கள் அற்ற புதிய உலகம் படைக்க ஏகாதிபத்தியத்தையும்,காலனியாதிக்கத்தையும் எதிர்த்துப் போராடுவோம்` என்று முழங்கி ஒரு கை நூலை வெளியிட்டுள்ளது.

இக் கை நூல் தமிழக கால நிலைப் பேரிடர்களை, சர்வதேசப் பரிமாணத்திலும்,குறிப்பாக ஏகாதிபத்திய காலனியாதிக்க அரசியல் சமூக வரலாற்றுப் பின் புலத்திலும் எடுத்து விளக்கி, அதன் பகுதியாக உள்நாட்டு நிலைமைகளை ஆராய்கின்றது.

இவ் ஆய்விலிருந்து  யுத்ததந்திர செயல்தந்திர மற்றும் உடனடிக் கடமைகளை வகுத்தளிக்கின்றது. 

பூமிக் கிரக  வெப்ப உயர்வுப் பிரச்சனைக்கும், காலனியாதிக்க போர்கள் ஏற்படுத்திய இயற்கைக்  கட்டுமான அழிவுக்கும் இடையில்  ஒரு தர்க்க ரீதியான இணைப்பைக் காட்டுகின்றது.

இக் கை நூலை மேற்காணும் படத்தில் அழுத்தி கண்டறிந்து படிக்கலாம்.

படியுங்கள்! பரப்புங்கள்! நிதி ஆதாரம் வழங்குங்கள்!

Sri Lanka's 2015 budget deficit hits 7.2 pct of GDP

Sri Lanka's 2015 budget deficit hits 7.2 pct of GDP
Jan 08, 2016 17:52 PM

COLOMBO, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka's budget deficit overshot to 7.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, against a revised target of 6.0 percent, swelled by unexpected payments for contractors, Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake said.

The minister had revised the 2015 target to 6 percent of GDP on Nov. 20 from the original 4.4 percent, due to unexpected spending and a revenue fall.

But on Friday, Karunanayake told Reuters "Last year's budget deficit was 7.2 percent."

The new figure puts the deficit much higher than the 5.5-6.0 percent the International Monetary Fund had estimated it would be.

The accountant-turned-politician said the government had to spend heavily on contractual payments for infrastructure projects started by the previous government led by Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was defeated in polls in January 2015.

Also, the new government implemented some populist policies.

"We ensured that all that was to be paid was put in the last year's budget," the minister said. "Why should we put it in this year?"

For 2016, Sri Lanka aims for a budget deficit of 5.9 percent of GDP.

The IMF has warned Sri Lanka not to have loose monetary and fiscal policies, and urged structural reforms to safeguard economic stability.

Amid heavy borrowing to cover the budget deficit, Sri Lanka's rupee has hovered around record lows since the central bank floated it on Sept. 4. It has fallen around 6.6 percent since then.

Karunanayake said the floating rupee has not helped boost exports.

"To be very frank, an approach will be looked at. We will control (the rupee)," the finance minister said when asked the steps government is contemplating to ease pressure on the rupee.

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS PRESSURE

A decline in foreign reserves may limit the government's attempt to defend the rupee, analysts say. Sri Lanka has already decided to seek an IMF loan to support its balance-of-payments.

Sri Lanka last year borrowed $1.5 billion from an Indian currency swap, $2.15 billion through two 10-year sovereign bonds and more than $1.7 billion from development bonds to repay foreign loans while defending the currency.

Karunanayake admitted that the balance of payments will face pressure if there is a reduction in worker remittances, which totalled more than $7 billion in 2014.

He said the government is looking to get $3 billion-$4 billion in deposits from foreigners to help "overcome" balance of payments problems.

Sri Lanka's domestic banks have already received around $1.5 billion through such deposits, he said.