கொரிய வசந்தம்! _ U.S. watches warily as key Asian ally descends into political chaos

 U.S. watches warily as key Asian ally descends into political chaos

The South Korean president’s declaration of martial law caught Washington by surprise.

Soldiers try to enter the main hall of the National Assembly after South Korean President
Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday. (Yonhap/AFP/Getty Images)

By Karen DeYoung

 and 

Ellen Nakashima 04-12-2024 Washington Post

The Biden administration breathed a sigh of relief Tuesday as South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, in the face of overwhelming domestic opposition, backed down within hours from an emergency declaration of martial law.

But the fast-moving developments in a crucial part of the world left a deep sense of unease over the political future of one of the United States’ closest allies and concern for the tripartite U.S.-South Korea-Japan security pact, a deterrent against both China and Russia, that is one of President Joe Biden’s signature foreign policy achievements.

While Yoon is “one of the pillars of our regional engagement strategy,” said a U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity, his political future is in doubt.

Following a narrow victory in elections last spring that saw the opposition Democratic Party — considered more accommodating toward North Korea and suspicious of close relations with the United States and Japan — win a legislative majority, Yoon quickly became mired in scandal and political turmoil and was threatened with impeachment. He accused the opposition of engaging in “antistate” activities in alignment with Pyongyang.

The startling news of Yoon’s action, coming as both Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are traveling outside the country, caught the administration by surprise. Shortly after being informed of the situation in Seoul, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell opened remarks at an unrelated State Department event Tuesday morning by voicing “grave concern” over “the recent developments in the ROK [Republic of Korea].”

As U.S. officials sought more information, Campbell said, “I do want to underscore that our alliance with the ROK is ironclad, and we stand by Korea in their time of uncertainty. I also want to just underscore that we have every hope and expectation that any political disputes will be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law.”

The coming days are likely to be tense for both Seoul and Washington, although administration officials expressed some optimism that the three-way agreement would endure.

“There is a lot happening at the lower levels across the board, almost on a daily basis,” the U.S. official said. “We think that’ll continue because it’s in our common interest to do so.” The strategy was designed “to insulate it from any political changes or turmoil at the top.”

But Biden will “have to balance how good Yoon has been for U.S. alliance equities and strategic equities in the region versus whether they think this guy can survive,” said Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and former East Asia aide in the George W. Bush White House. Yoon and Biden seemed to hit it off during the South Korean’s visit to Washington last year, capped by Yoon serenading a state dinner with a creditable version of “American Pie.”

If Yoon is impeached or otherwise forced to step down, “for the United States, that’s a big loss, because Yoon has been a driver” of the three-way security pact, first agreed to at a Camp David summit in 2023 and institutionalized with a memorandum of understanding last summer. Yoon has also been a proponent of the “Washington declaration” to expand nuclear consultations between Seoul and Washington and to support Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, Cha said.

Beth Sanner, a former top intelligence official in both Democratic and Republic administrations, expressed concern that North Korea may seek to take advantage of the chaos in the South. Korea watchers have been worried for months about North Korea conducting some sort of “kinetic action” in the next few months, perhaps shelling a South Korean island or sinking a South Korean ship, Sanner said.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a speech declaring martial law late Tuesday.
(Presidential Office/Reuters)

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “could time this for a real dilemma” for President-elect Donald Trump, she said.

The Pentagon, with nearly 29,000 troops stationed in South Korea, quickly declared it had nothing to do with events there. U.S. military personnel were not used to enforce martial law, spokesman Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters, and the force protection posture of U.S. service members in the country had not changed in response to political unrest.

Ryder said he was unaware of any requests made by Seoul for military assistance, and repeated — as had officials at the State Department and the White House National Security Council — that the United States was not notified ahead of Yoon’s declaration.

The martial law order, signed by an Army general Yoon put in charge of its implementation, suspended all political activity in South Korea and opened the door for military deployments.

Concerns rose as the Americans — including the commander of American forces in South Korea — were unable to reach their counterparts there, a second U.S. official said. Eventually, although there was no Cabinet-level contact, the administration engaged on numerous levels, officials said.

After several tense hours, as protests in the streets of the capital grew into the night, the National Assembly in Seoul convened an emergency session and voted unanimously — including the head of Yoon’s own Liberal Party — to block the decree.

On Wednesday at about 4 a.m. local time, Yoon went on national television and said the decree was lifted.

In a statement later issued from Brussels, where he is attending a NATO foreign ministers meeting, Blinken said the United States welcomed Yoon’s decision. Referring to the National Assembly vote and the South Korean constitution, he said, “We continue to expect political disagreements to be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law.”

Alex Horton contributed to this report.

Indian investors eye Sri Lanka’s economic resurgence for greater cross border synergy

Amid Sri Lanka’s journey towards economic recovery, Indian investors and businesses are closely monitoring the emerging opportunities in the local market. 

Indo-Sri Lanka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ISCCI) Vice Chairman Dr. Naresh Bana shared his perspective recently, on current investment trends, bilateral trade, and collaborative ventures between the two neighbours. 

Despite strong tourism ties, Indian investment in Sri Lanka’s tourism sector remains cautious. “Indian investors, like their counterparts elsewhere, rely on credible data, projections, and business prudence,” Dr. Bana explains. The country’s credit rating challenges, influenced by banking and financial institutions, often determine the final investment decisions.

However, trading relations between the two nations remain robust. 

Dr. Naresh Bana 

On recent economic reforms, Dr. Bana highlights Sri Lanka’s efforts to diversify investment instruments through municipal bonds, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and SME listings. “These initiatives, if executed effectively, could accelerate economic growth,” he states, adding that Indian businesses are observing these developments while awaiting more consistent, reliable data to guide their decisions. 

The ISCCI plays a crucial role in building Indo-Lankan economic ties. “We assist companies in securing industry tie-ups, facilitate bilateral trade, and disseminate policy-related information,” Dr. Bana shares. The Chamber’s initiatives aim to create a supportive environment for Indian investors and help Sri Lankan businesses establish a foothold in India. 

The Blue Economy presents significant collaborative potential for India and Sri Lanka. With expansive coastlines, the two nations can leverage marine resources for mutual benefit. Dr. Bana outlines key areas for cooperation, including Marine Domain Awareness (MDA) and maritime security, fisheries and aquaculture, offshore energy, including hydrocarbons and wind farms, maritime trade and connectivity, tourism and marina development and research and innovation. He emphasises, “Collaboration in these areas would unlock economic and ecological benefits for both nations.” 

The Adani Group’s investment in Sri Lanka is a significant milestone in Indo-Lankan energy cooperation. “The $ 442 million wind power project is not just an investment but a torchbearer for Sri Lanka’s renewable energy aspirations,” Dr. Bana notes. He highlights the project’s potential to stimulate ancillary industries, reduce energy dependency, and position Sri Lanka as a net energy exporter. 

India remains Sri Lanka’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $ 5 billion in 2023. The relationship is anchored by India’s ‘Neighborhood First’ policy, which includes development aid, credit lines, and infrastructure investments. 

Indian businesses have established a robust presence across Sri Lanka’s economy. The Tata Group, Bajaj, and Airtel have significant investments in telecommunications, automotive, and financial services. Indian Oil operates in the energy sector, while ITC Hotels has recently entered the tourism and leisure market. Additionally, the Adani Group has made strategic investments, including the development of the Colombo West International Terminal and the acquisition of Singha Cement. All these ventures underline the strengthening economic ties and mutual business interests between India and Sri Lanka.

Dr. Bana also highlighted the importance of the forthcoming Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA), which is expected to further enhance trade and economic ties. 

As Sri Lanka rebuilds, the role of Indian businesses and institutions like ISCCI will be critical in fostering sustainable growth. With shared interests in energy, trade, and the Blue Economy, the Indo-Lankan partnership holds immense promise for regional prosperity. 

Dr. Bana’s insights reinforces the potential for deeper collaboration, driven by strategic investments and mutual trust. As he aptly concludes, “The future of Indo-Lankan relations lies in harnessing each other’s strengths for collective growth.”⍐

Total public debt exceeds $ 100 b, raising concerns about debt sustainability

 

Domestic debt rises to $ 60 b

04 Dec 2024 | By Imesh Ranasinghe The Morning

Sri Lanka’s domestic debt saw a net increase of $ 2.4 billion in the third quarter as the government continues to rely on the domestic debt market with the total domestic debt closing in at $ 60 billion, Finance Ministry data showed.

According to the debt bulletin for the third quarter published by the Finance Ministry, Sri Lanka’s domestic debt rose to $ 59.9 billion from $ 57.4 billion at the end of June.

The total stock of outstanding Treasury bills increased by $ 404.7 million to $ 13.1 billion, while the total stock of outstanding Treasury bonds increased by $ 2.29 billion to $ 44.2 billion.

Furthermore, the total outstanding public debt has increased to $ 103.7 billion in the third quarter from $ 100.6 billion in the second quarter, while the total outstanding external debt increased by $ 716 million to $ 38.2 billion.

Commercial debt represents a significant portion of the government’s external debt which amounted to 38%, followed by multilateral debt (33%) and bilateral debt (29%).

Also, about 85% of the Commercial category debt consisted of international bond issuances (ISBs) and the rest from the term financing facilities (Syndicated loans).

“The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank are the major multilateral creditors representing over 87% of the total multilateral debt,” the Finance Ministry said, adding that under bilateral debt, 60% of its debt is represented by non-Paris Club countries while about 40% from Paris Club countries.

Meanwhile, the government has managed to clear local loans in foreign currency amounting to $ 240 million in the third quarter.

Further, the Finance Ministry said that 67% of the government’s external debt consists of the instruments obtained at fixed interest rates, whereas 31% at floating interest rates.⍐

A surprise assault on Syria, but can it last?

A surprise assault on Syria, but can it last?

The wave of enemy destabilization ploys jumped from Lebanon to Syria this week, with a swarm of foreign-backed extremists breaking into Aleppo. Israel warned that Syria was next, but can the militants do today what they couldn't achieve for almost a decade?

Haidar Mustafa NOV 30, 2024 The Cradle

In his speech announcing Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire with Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a direct threat to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, warning him of “playing with fire.” Those words came mere hours before armed terrorist factions from Idlib launched a shock offensive on Syrian army positions in the de-escalation zone in the western countryside of Aleppo. The operation is being led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebranded incarnation of Al-Nusra Front - or Syria’s Al-Qaeda franchise - led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, with the participation of other international terror organizations such as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP).

The army is preparing to deter aggression

On the morning of 27 November, armed extremist groups launched violent attacks on Syrian army positions in the vicinity of the 46th Regiment and toward the villages of Orem al-Kubra, Orem al-Sughra, Basratun, Anjara, and the surrounding areas, located a short distance from the M5 Aleppo-Hama-Damascus highway. 

In their first surprise attack, as part of an operation called “Deterrence of Aggression,” the militants were able to enter a number of villages that Syrian army forces had evacuated in preparation for containing the breach, which constitutes a flagrant violation of the 2019 de-escalation agreements between Turkey, Russia, and Iran.

The scope of the battles quickly expanded on the international road and into the city of Aleppo. A Turkish security source quoted by Qatari-funded Middle East Eye said that the goal of the military operation launched by HTS and its allies is the recovery of the positions gained by the Syrian forces with the support of Russia during the battles of 2017 - 2020.

The militants claim that the Syrian and Russian army’s “violations” of the de-escalation agreements - and their intensification of strikes on Idlib - prompted these military operations in order to regain their control of these areas. They say that the Syrian army’s retreat in Aleppo’s western countryside provided impetus for the militants to launch further attacks toward rural eastern Idlib.

Within three days, armed extremist groups were able to reach the heart of Aleppo and declare a curfew for 24 hours. As the confrontations intensified, Syrian and Russian warplanes launched a series of violent raids on HTS and Turkestani sites and supply lines in Darat Azza, Al-Atareb, Sarmin, and other areas. These airstrikes are still ongoing, with video footage revealing heavy losses in the ranks of the extremist factions and several media sources confirming fatalities of more than 200 members of HTS and other militant groups in the Aleppo and Idlib regions.

The expansion of air attacks by the Syrian and Russian forces led, on Thursday morning, to a lull in HTS’ field momentum as the group suffered both human and material losses. Sources on the frontline also reveal the arrival of huge military reinforcements to the main confrontation zone, which extends over an area of ​​​​more than 26 kilometers in western Aleppo – Syrian troops and supplies that are planning a counterattack to restore the status quo. Military expert Haitham Hassoun explains to The Cradle that the Syrian army has regrouped in the rear lines of defense at a depth of 7 to 8 kilometers in preparation for carrying out the counterattack.

How did the preparations go?

In reality, the HTS operation was by no means a spur-of-the-moment offensive but rather a result of years-long preparations spearheaded by US and Turkish intelligence to unify the ranks of various extremist factions in Syria’s north. This project took place under the direct supervision of the Turkish army, which aimed to converge the militant groups in Idlib and the Aleppo countryside and place decision-making in the hands of mainly two parties: the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA), which is loyal to Ankara, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria.  

In this mash-up of terror outfits are the Turkestan and Uyghur “jihadist” groups, used primarily as strike forces in specific military operations, largely fulfilling the interests of their US and Turkish funders. 

Military expert, Brigadier General Haitham Hassoun, confirms that preparations to launch this operation began “a long time ago,” and that the participating groups established a joint ops room about a month and a half ago. He believes that the militants benefited from “misdirection” and electronic warfare media operations carried out by Turkish intelligence to camouflage their intentions and movements and by Turkish occupation forces inside Syria during the days preceding the shock offensive. The militants further benefited from sophisticated intel that helped them exploit existing loopholes on the ground and were aware of vacuums in the Syrian army’s positions, which then led to this breach and confusion in the defense lines.

Who made the decision, and what is the goal?

Today’s scenes in Idlib and Aleppo remind Syrians of a period they thought they had put behind them after the 2016 liberation of Aleppo and the 2019 de-escalation understandings. But those hard-fought understandings had always remained fragile, given that Turkiye evaded its commitments to purge the M5 area of terrorist groups. The militancy in Syria’s north served Ankara’s interest in maintaining pressure on Damascus. It also explains this week’s armed operation – an action the Turks believe will force the Syrian government to enter negotiations under fire, especially if armed extremists re-enter Aleppo or sever the critical international route.  

On the other hand, one objective of the operation may be the US decision to maintain a state of conflict in the region and redirect pressure toward Russia and its regional allies ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

As many commentators have pointed out, the military operation was launched in the direct aftermath of Netanyahu’s explicit threats in his speech this week and is likely connected to Israel's regional war and Tel Aviv's determination to sever the Syrian route for members of the Resistance Axis. The offensive appears to have been coordinated with the NATO-member Turkiye, under the direction of Turkish occupation authorities and intelligence services, which have for years managed and supported the various extremist groups in northern Syria.

In a preliminary estimate, what is happening is a return to the situation before 2019, a re-invasion that effectively seeks to derail all the achievements of the Astana peace process. In turn, this deserves nothing less than an equally brash and unexpected response: a Syrian military counter-offensive that not only reclaims the positions held by Syrian army forces a few days ago but one that decisively pushes all the way to Darat Izza and beyond up to the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkiye, cutting off communications routes between the militants in the Aleppo and Idlib regions, and restoring the entire governorates under Syrian government control. 

What began as a shock assault may have created an opportunity to end the state of limbo in the country’s north at the end of the Syrian war, provide Damascus and its allies a way to sidestep unproductive de-escalation understandings, and hand the Syrian state a legitimate, legal and moral justification to liberate all territories from terror organizations. 

Until or unless this happens, western Aleppo and eastern Idlib will remain active battlefields. However, according to informed sources, the militants are unlikely to remain in an advantageous position for long for several key reasons. 

First is the imminent arrival of large Syrian military reinforcements to the area, which will not allow Aleppo to fall into the hands of foreign-backed extremists. Second, these US and Turkish-backed militant groups are less likely to achieve their goals today than in the early years of the war because of seismic political and economic shifts in Europe, which fears the revival of the Syrian conflict and another flood of refugees to its borders. 

Third, Damascus has returned to the Arab fold by rejoining the Arab League and being welcomed by several Persian Gulf states. Those capitals are no longer interested in backing jihadists, resuscitating the war, or destabilizing Lebanon and Iraq, Syria’s direct and connected neighbors, at this moment. Nor are they interested in opening up the Syrian military arena to Iranian advisors or forces again.  

___________________

Mapping who controls what in Syria

 Syrian opposition fighters, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are advancing into Aleppo and south towards Hama, just five days after launching a surprise offensive that may have sparked a new phase of the 13-year war in Syria.

Syria’s military announced a “temporary troop withdrawal” on Saturday from Aleppo, the country’s second largest city, saying it would regroup in preparation for the arrival of reinforcements for a counterattack.

President Bashar al-Assad’s forces had controlled Aleppo since 2016 with support from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah after a brutal air campaign by Russian warplanes helped al-Assad retake the city of about two million people.

President Bashar al-Assad’s forces had controlled Aleppo since 2016 with support from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah after a brutal air campaign by Russian warplanes helped al-Assad retake the city of about two million people. 

Four main groups are competing for control on the ground in Syria. They are:

1. Syrian government forces: The army, the government’s main military force, fights alongside the National Defence Forces, a pro-government paramilitary group.
2. Syrian Democratic Forces: This Kurdish-dominated, United States-backed group controls parts of eastern Syria.
3. HTS and other allied rebel groups: The HTS is the latest iteration of the al-Nusra Front, which had pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda until it severed those ties in 2016.
4. Turkish and Turkish-aligned Syrian rebel forces: The Syrian National Army is a Turkish-backed rebel force in northern Syria.

How the offensive unfolded

On Wednesday(27-11-2024), the day a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect, Syrian opposition forces, led by HTS, launched an offensive from their base in Idlib governorate in northwestern Syria.

The rebel group says the attacks are retaliation for recent Syrian government assaults on cities in Idlib, including Ariha and Sarmada, which resulted in civilian casualties, including the deaths of children, and aim to deter future attacks on the rebel stronghold.

The operation marked the first major attack against al-Assad’s forces in the region since the 2020 Idlib ceasefire, brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

By Wednesday evening, the group had seized at least 19 towns and villages from pro-government forces, including military sites, as they pushed into western Aleppo governorate.

The Syrian regime responded by shelling rebel-held areas while the Russian air force carried out air strikes.

By Thursday, the rebels had captured more territory and expelled government forces from villages in eastern Idlib, then began pushing towards the M5 highway, a strategic road that leads south to the capital, Damascus, about 300km (186 miles) away.

By Friday, rebel forces had entered parts of Aleppo city after detonating two car bombs and engaging government forces on the city’s western edge, according to a Syrian war monitor and fighters. Syrian state television said Russia was providing Syria’s military with air support.

By Saturday, images and videos began circulating online showing rebel fighters taking photos next to the ancient Citadel of Aleppo as they advanced through the city.

After capturing Aleppo, the rebels advanced south, but there are conflicting reports about whether they have reached the central city of Hama.

The opposition announced an effort to expand safe areas and allow displaced civilians in Idlib to return to their homes in recently “liberated” territories.

(Al Jazeera) By AJLabs Published On 1 Dec 2024

French government hangs by a thread as far right threatens to pull the trigger

French government hangs by a thread as far right threatens to pull the trigger

 “Barring a last-minute miracle,” Jordan Bardella will vote to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier — as France hurtles toward political and financial chaos.

December 2, 2024  By Victor Goury-Laffont

PARIS — It’s deadline day for French Prime Minister Michel Barnier.

Hanging over him is an ultimatum delivered by far-right leader Marine Le Pen: If he doesn’t cave to her budget demands, she could topple his government within 48 hours.

So it’s shaping up to be a crucial few days for France, with the reverberations likely to be felt across Europe. The country is the second-largest economy in the eurozone and is carrying a mountain of debt. Its government hasn’t been this fragile nor its parliament so fractured for a generation.

Monday will be a day of drama. Lawmakers are set to gather in the National Assembly to vote on next year’s social security budget. Barnier, who has only been prime minister since September after President Emmanuel Macron called a gratuitous election, desperately needs the budget to pass to avoid a crisis that will be as much political as financial.

The problem for Barnier is that his center-right government doesn’t hold a majority in the parliament, so he will need the tacit support of the far right. If he tries to circumvent a vote, meanwhile, the political opposition could cause his government to fall.

On Monday morning, Jordan Bardella, president of Le Pen's National Rally, said his party will vote to topple the government “barring a last-minute miracle” that Barnier would bring forward significant changes.

“The budget presented by the government is a budget of punishment that will weaken the purchasing power of our compatriots,” he told French radio RTL.

The aim of the budget is to regain control over France’s spiraling deficit, which is projected to hit 6.1 percent of the size of the economy this year. Barnier had initially planned €40 billion in spending cuts and €20 billion in tax hikes, but has already been forced to make some concessions on those numbers.

Aware of its kingmaker role, National Rally has put forward an ever-growing list of pre-Christmas demands it expects Barnier to meet in exchange for cooperation. The party has listed a series of “red lines” — policies it says will automatically lead to a vote of no confidence if they are included in the budget.

The question is who will blink first.

Le Pen told the AFP news agency on Sunday that the government had “ended the discussion,” adding: “There’s a chance we’ll draw the consequences of this extremely close-minded and sectarian behavior.”

Game of chicken

Barnier has two options on the table to pass the social security budget — and both require the cooperation of the National Rally.

The first is a traditional parliamentary route. Under this scenario, the bill would be put to a vote; to win, Barnier’s minority government, which is supported by a narrow coalition of centrist and conservative lawmakers, would need at least the tacit support of National Rally members. It would probably scrape through even if Le Pen’s troops abstained — presumably after having squeezed enough concessions out of Barnier.

The second option, which Barnier has said he is “likely” to use, involves skipping a vote altogether. The French constitution permits the government to do so, but the move also allows opposition parties to file a motion of no confidence — which, if submitted, would likely be put to a vote on Wednesday.

If that motion passes, the budget would also be rejected, and the government would automatically collapse.

The pan-left New Popular Front, which holds roughly a third of seats in the National Assembly, has already vowed to put forward a motion to topple the government. If the far right joins in, it’s all over for the Barnier administration.

Issues with the budget

If Barnier chooses the latter route, he can only hope Le Pen gets cold feet about plunging the country into financial chaos.

But the National Rally’s official position, for now, is that it won’t budge unless all its “red lines” are removed from the budget. “We still have issues [with the budget]… [Barnier] has until Monday,” Le Pen told Le Monde on Thursday.

Meanwhile, her wish list has expanded over the past few days. The National Rally is asking that the government scrap a tax hike on electricity, abandon a planned postponement to a yearly inflation adjustment for pensions, keep employer contribution exemptions on low wages, pledge not to delist certain drugs, “drastically cut” access to state-funded health care for undocumented immigrants, and “negotiate with Brussels a reduction in France’s contribution to the European Union budget.”

Barnier has started to give in, making a U-turn on his plans for electricity taxes and agreeing to keep employer contribution exemptions in place. He also attempted to seduce the far right in an interview with conservative daily Le Figaro with extra promises such as limiting the ability of individuals without documentation to access health care.

Barnier claims none of that was aimed at convincing Le Pen, but instead was a bid for consensus with all opposition parties.

Politics is also at play, with Le Pen wanting Barnier to lay the win at her feet. “I have a democratic issue with the insistence on saying that this is not a concession to the National Rally,” she said. “They want our votes, but not our faces associated with them.”

In an interview with Le Parisien published on Sunday, Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin seemingly shut the door on any last-minute concessions.

“There is no way to guarantee the restoration of state finances if we go further than we have already,” he said. “Compromise is not blackmail, there cannot be an ultimatum.”

In response, National Rally President Jordan Bardella took to X to accuse the government of being “stubborn” and “running the risk” of being toppled by “ending negotiations.”

The catch for Barnier? Even if he survives this week, he won’t be out of the woods. Later this month, if the social security bill passes, lawmakers will examine the overall state budget for next year, which will once again expose the prime minister to a vote of no confidence — and invariably, another set of demands from the National Rally. ⍐