COP29 opens to discuss efforts tackling global warming after deadly climate-related disasters

COP29 opens to discuss efforts tackling global warming after deadly climate-related disasters

By GT staff reporters 

Published: Nov 11, 2024 

With memories of deadly floods in Spain and severe hurricane strikes in the US still fresh, and the summer of 2024 being the hottest on record, world leaders, scientists and industry representatives are gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan for the COP29 to discuss concerted efforts to respond to climate change. 

Floods in Spain 2024

However, the latest changes in the international landscape, including Donald Trump's reelection as US president given the fact that he had pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement in his first term, and emerging protectionism over green technologies, have brought uncertainty to the event.  

Making emission reduction plans and a climate funding arrangement are high on the agenda this year, Chinese analysts said, stressing that the imminent threat posed by climate change to humanity is a bugle call for countries to take more proactive measures, and developed countries should fulfill their commitment rather than shun responsibilities. 

Floods in Spain 2024

Imminent threat 

The COP29, formally known as the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is slated to be held in Baku from November 11 to November 22. 

Browsing news websites, examples of extreme weather victims and climate refugees are abundant. Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, said on Monday's COP29 opening that "This crisis is affecting every single individual in the world in one way or another."

Stiell urged parties to dispense with any idea that climate finance is charity. "An ambitious new climate finance goal is entirely in the self-interest of every nation, including the largest and wealthiest."  

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN body, in 2022, limiting warming to around 1.5 C requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 and decrease by 43 percent by 2030 to prevent irrevocable damage. 

The deadline is around the corner. 

In an interview with the Guardian on Friday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world is still underestimating the risk of catastrophic climate breakdown and ecosystem collapse. 

Humanity is approaching potentially irreversible tipping points such as the collapse of the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet as global temperatures rise, Guterres said, warning that governments are not making the deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions needed to limit warming to safe levels.

Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, told the Global Times the lessons that should be learned from more frequent natural disasters are not only emergency response capacity building for nations, but also the importance and urgency of emission reduction. 

Countries must take more proactive measures to reduce emissions in order to avoid further increases in global temperatures, which could lead to more severe climate consequences, Ma noted.  

However, the latest changes in the international landscape, including Donald Trump's reelection as US president given the fact that he had pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement in his first term, and emerging protectionism over green technologies, have brought uncertainty to the event. 

Looming challenges  

Politico said in a Sunday report that "the world is bracing for Trump to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement for the second time."

The Trump campaign told Politico in June that the former president would quit the global pact, as he did in 2017 during his first stint in the office. Trump has not yet issued his policy on climate change since winning the election.

The US is the biggest developed country, with many allies and great influence on global governance, and its potential withdrawal from the agreement again will undoubtedly backpedal global efforts for carbon reduction and climate change response, Xin Qiang, director of the Taiwan Studies Center at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Monday. 

The US' swinging back and forth in its climate stance not only means discontinuity in domestic policy on clean energy and carbon reduction, but also jeopardizes global cooperation and joint action, Xin said.  

Another challenge is the emerging protectionism related to green industries, such as new-energy vehicles (NEVs) and photovoltaic panels, according to Lü Xiang, research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.  

Some countries in the EU have resorted to tariffs primarily for economic reasons, but they should recognize that such protectionism is detrimental to green technology transfer and global climate cooperation, Lü said. 

A key task of the COP29 is to establish a New Collective Quantified Goal on climate financing, which represents a post-2025 climate financing commitment from developed economies to developing nations, Xia Yingxian, director of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's Department of Climate Change, said at a news conference on Friday.

The new financing arrangement is set to replace developed countries' $100 billion annual commitment as per the Paris Agreement. The commitment was not truly fulfilled and will expire in 2025. 

Climate finance, as a focal point, hot spot and challenge in the international climate process, is crucial for building trust between developed and developing countries, and it is key to advancing multilateral progress, Xia said.

Hurricane Katrina US

China's role 

At the invitation of President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, President Xi Jinping's Special Representative, Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council Ding Xuexiang will travel to Azerbaijan from November 12 to 13 for the World Leaders Climate Action Summit and visit the country at the invitation of Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Shahin Abdulla oglu Mustafayev, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry. 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at Friday's routine press briefing that China stands ready to work with other parties to uphold the goal, principles and system of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, advance practical actions and achieve sustainable development. China hopes to see positive outcomes on the global climate finance goal at the meeting, Mao said. 

Developed countries should earnestly fulfill their responsibilities and provide strong financial support to developing countries for their climate response. China will continue to offer assistance to fellow developing countries to the best of its capacity under the framework of South-South cooperation, said the spokesperson.

 UNICEF/David Hogsholt Storms, typhoons and other nautaral desasters cause widespread
damage in many countries in Asia. (file)

Some countries have been pressing China to contribute more funding, but Ma noted China's consistent stance is "shared but differentiated responsibilities."

Data show that from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century to 1950, developed countries emitted 95 percent of the world's total carbon dioxide, and from 1950 to 2000, the emissions produced by developed countries accounted for 77 percent of the global total, Xinhua reported.

The COP29, and the overall climate change response, should be practical and respect different countries' efforts based on their national conditions, Ma said. 

Xin Qiang said China has always been a responsible major power in dealing with climate change: in addition to continuous afforestation, it has invested enormously in green transition and helps other developing countries in the cause. 

China released an annual climate action report on November 6, outlining the country's new initiatives for tackling climate change. According to the report, China's energy use structure, manufacturing, transportation and construction have been greener in the past year. 

As for global cooperation, China has signed 52 South-South cooperation documents on climate change with 42 developing countries, per the report.  

China's wind power and photovoltaic product exports helped other countries reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 810 million tons in 2023, according to the white paper issued by China's State Council Information Office in August, Xinhua reported.⍐ 

________________________

Note: Pictures ENB

 

Greta Thunberg protests against Azerbaijan hosting global climate summit

Climate activist Greta Thunberg has attended a rally in Georgia to protest against Azernaijan hosting the annual United Nations climate talks

BySOPHIKO MEGRELIDZE Associated Press November 11, 2024,

TBILISI, Georgia -- Climate activist Greta Thunberg on Monday attended a rally in Georgia to protest against Azerbaijan hosting the annual United Nations climate talks.

Thunberg and scores of other activists who rallied in Tbilisi, the capital of the South Caucasus nation, argued that Azerbaijan doesn't deserve to host the climate talks because of its repressive policies.

U.N. climate talks, called COP29, opened Monday in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, a major oil producer where the world’s first oil well was drilled.

Thunberg described Azerbaijan as “a repressive, occupying state, which has committed ethnic cleansing, and which is continuing cracking down on Azerbaijani civil society." She charged that the Caspian Sea nation has used the summit as “a chance to greenwash their crimes and human rights abuses.”

Video. 

Protesters at COP29 call for an end to war in Gaza

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"We can't give them any legitimacy in this situation, which is why we are standing here and saying no to greenwashing and no to the Azerbaijani regime,” she said.

Azerbaijan has committed to clean energy projects, but critics have argued that’s just to export more oil and gas.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has been in power since 2003 when he succeeded his father who died after ruling the oil rich nation for the previous decade. He has been accused by critics of intolerance to dissent and freedom of speech.

Earlier this year, Aliyev won another seven-year presidential term in an election that monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said took place in a “restrictive environment” with no real political competition. Aliyev called the early vote while enjoying a surge in popularity after Azerbaijani forces in September 2023 swiftly reclaimed the Karabakh region from ethnic Armenian separatists, who had controlled it for three decades.

After Azerbaijan regained full control of Karabakh, most of its 120,000 Armenian residents fled. The Azerbaijani authorities, however, said they were welcome to stay and promised their human rights would be ensured.

Thunberg, 21, has inspired a global youth movement demanding stronger efforts to fight climate change after staging weekly protests outside the Swedish parliament starting in 2018.

The European climate service Copernicus announced earlier this month that the world is on pace for 1.5 degrees of warming this year, which is heading to become the hottest year in human civilization.

Speaking at the rally in Tbilisi on Monday, Thunberg emphasized that the hottest year ever recorded comes after global greenhouse gas emissions reached an all time high last year. Holding the climate change conference "in an authoritarian petro state is beyond absurd,” she said.⍐

Time to Show Global Cooperation Rising to This Moment: UN

 Time to Show Global Cooperation Rising to This Moment: UN Climate Change Executive Secretary at COP29 Opening

The following is a transcript of remarks made by UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell at the opening of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, on 11 November 2024.

Excellencies, Delegates, Colleagues, Friends,

It is an honor to welcome you to COP29.

I thank Dr. Sultan Al Jaber and the Emirati Presidency for their tireless work, as they pass the baton to President Babayev and Azerbaijan.

In tough times, up against difficult tasks, I don’t go in for hopes and dreams.

What inspires me is human ingenuity and determination. Our ability to get knocked down and to get up again over and over again, until we accomplish our goals.

The lady I’m standing with, in this picture, is my neighbour, Florence, in Carriacou. In July this year, this was us, standing in all that remained of her home after the devastation of Hurricane Beryl.

At 85, Florence has become one of the millions of victims of runaway climate change this year alone.

She was focused on one thing: Being strong for her family and strong for her community.

And there are people like Florence in every country on Earth.  Knocked down, and getting back up again.

This UNFCCC process is the only place we have to address the rampant climate crisis, and to credibly hold each other to account to act on it.

And we know this process is working. Because without it, humanity would be headed towards five degrees of global warming.

In these halls, we negotiate on specific pieces of the puzzle each year. It can feel far away from what’s happening in Florence’s living room. We cannot afford to continue up-ending lives and livelihoods in every nation - so let’s make this real:

Do you want your grocery and energy bills to go up even more?

Do you want your country to become economically uncompetitive?

Do you really want even further global instability, costing precious life?

This crisis is affecting every single individual in the world one way or another.

And I’m as frustrated as anyone that one single COP can’t deliver the full transformation that every nation needs. But if any of your answers to those questions was no, then it is here that Parties need to agree a way out of this mess.

That’s why we're here in Baku. We must agree a new global climate finance goal.

If at least two thirds of the world's nations cannot afford to cut emissions quickly, then every nation pays a brutal price.

If nations can’t build resilience into supply chains, the entire global economy will be brought to its knees.  No country is immune.

So, let's dispense with the idea that climate finance is charity. An ambitious new climate finance goal is entirely in the self-interest of every single nation, including the largest and wealthiest.

But it’s not enough to just agree on a goal. We must work harder to reform the global financial system. Giving countries the fiscal space they so desperately need.

And here in Baku, we must get international carbon markets up and running, by finalising Article 6.

We need to move forward on mitigation, so targets from Dubai are realized.

We mustn’t let 1.5 slip out of reach. And even as temperatures rise, the implementation of our agreements must claw them back.

Clean energy and infrastructure investment will reach two trillion dollars in 2024. Almost twice that of fossil fuels.

The shift to clean-energy and climate-resilience will not be stopped. Our job is to accelerate this and make sure its huge benefits are shared by all countries and all people.

We must agree adaptation targets. You can't manage what you don't measure. And we need to know if we're on a pathway to increasing resilience.

And we must continue to improve the new mechanisms for financial and technical support on loss and damage.

We can’t make decisions in the dark. Biennial Transparency Reports, due this year, will give us a clearer picture of the progress we're making, and the gaps that we need to fill.

[Next] year, all countries will deliver their third generation of national climate plans – NDCs.

To support countries in creating and communicating them, the UNFCCC will launch a Climate Plan Campaign.

It will mobilise action from all stakeholders, and align with the efforts of the UN Secretary-General and the incoming Brazilian COP Presidency.

In parallel, we'll re-start Climate Weeks from 2025. Aligning them more closely with our process and the outcomes it must deliver.

At the Secretariat, we will continue to work tirelessly with what we have got, while being clear on what funding we need, so we can deliver on what’s increasingly being asked of us.

And we will keep focus on the safe, inclusive, and meaningful participation of all observers at this COP.

In the past few years, we’ve taken some historic steps forward.  We cannot leave Baku without a substantial outcome. Appreciating the importance of this moment, Parties must act accordingly.

Show determination and ingenuity here at COP29 – We need all parties to push for agreement right from the start - To stand and deliver.

Now it is the time to show that global cooperation is not down for the count. So I urge you all, let us rise together.

I thank you.⍐

Qatar suspends Gaza mediation, in sign of impasse

Qatar suspends Gaza mediation, in sign of impasse

Qatar has suspended its role as a key mediator for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal until Hamas and Israel show "seriousness" in talks, the foreign ministry said Saturday.

by Callum Paton with Anna Maria Jakubek in Jerusalem Nov 9, 2024

The Gulf emirate, which has hosted Hamas's political leadership since 2012 with US blessing, has been involved in months of protracted diplomacy aimed at ending the war triggered by the Palestinian group's October 7 attack on Israel last year.

But the talks, also mediated by Cairo and Washington, have repeatedly hit problems since a one-week truce in November 2023 -- the only one so far. Each side has blamed the other for the impasse.

"Qatar notified the parties 10 days ago, during the last attempts to reach an agreement, that it would stall its efforts to mediate between Hamas and Israel if an agreement was not reached in that round," Doha's foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said in a statement.

"Qatar would resume those efforts... when the parties show their willingness and seriousness," he added.

A diplomatic source told AFP earlier: "The Qataris informed both the Israelis and Hamas that as long as there is a refusal to negotiate a deal in good faith, they cannot continue to mediate."

With Gaza truce talks deadlocked, the Hamas political office in Doha "no longer serves its purpose", said the diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Both Qatari and US officials have indicated that Hamas would remain in Doha as long as its presence offered a viable channel of communication.

A senior Hamas official in Doha told AFP: "We have not received any request to leave Qatar".

- 400 days of war -

Despite last November's truce, when scores of Hamas-held hostages were released, subsequent rounds of talks have failed to end the war.

The diplomatic source said Saturday that Qatar had "concluded that there is insufficient willingness from either side" to bridge the gaps in negotiations.

One crucial hurdle has been Hamas's insistence that Israel withdraw completely from Gaza, something Israeli officials have repeatedly rejected.

On the ground in the besieged Gaza Strip, the fighting showed no signs of abating on Saturday, the war's 400th day.

The territory's civil defence agency said Israeli air strikes had killed at least 14 Palestinians overnight, including nine at a tent camp in the southern area of Khan Yunis.

Afaf Tafesh told AFP she had lost relatives in that strike.

"We have no food, no water, no place to sleep and we are all the time moving from place to place," she said.

Israel's military said its troops had killed "dozens of terrorists" in the Jabalia area of northern Gaza, where it has conducted a sweeping air and ground operation for more than a month.

Visiting Jabalia on Friday, Israeli army chief Herzi Halevi told troops: "We are not stopping or slowing down.

He vowed "to bring back the hostages, to ensure security" for Israeli communities near the Gaza border, a statement from the military said.

A UN-backed assessment issued Saturday said famine is looming in northern Gaza because of a "rapidly deteriorating situation" with increased hostilities and a near-complete halt in food aid.

"Famine thresholds may have already been crossed or else will be in the near future", said the alert from the Famine Review Committee.

The Israeli military said the report relied on "partial, biased data and superficial sources with vested interests".

- Lebanon fighting -

The Hamas attack that sparked the war resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.

Israel's retaliatory campaign has killed 43,552 people in Gaza, most of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory's health ministry that the United Nations considers reliable.

Of 251 hostages seized by Palestinian militants during the October 7 attack, 97 remain in Gaza including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.

Israelis have protested every weekend, pressing their government to do more to secure the captives' release. Crowds again demonstrated Saturday in commercial hub Tel Aviv.

Protester Ruti Lior said she was "very, very worried".

Qatar pulling back from mediation "is further proof to me that (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu is not really serious" about reaching a deal, the 62-year-old psychotherapist told AFP.

The conflict has expanded to Lebanon, where Israel intensified its air campaign in September and later sent in ground troops after a year of cross-border clashes with Hamas ally Hezbollah.

Lebanon's health ministry reported at least 20 killed in Israeli strikes on the east and another 13 in the south, including seven rescuers affiliated to Hezbollah and its ally Amal.

Hezbollah said Saturday it had attacked targets in northern Israel and downed an Israeli drone over south Lebanon.

More than 2,700 people have been killed in Lebanon since September 23, according to ministry figures.

Iran, which backs both Hezbollah and Hamas, warned that the war could spread beyond the Middle East.

Wishful Chinese see possible Trump 2.0 window to resolve Taiwan

 

Donald Trump said he will impose a 150 to 200% tariff on Chinese goods if Beijing invades Taiwan. Photo: Facebook, Donald Trump

Wishful Chinese see possible Trump 2.0 window to resolve Taiwan

Some Chinese commentators think the US will avoid a fight with China in the Taiwan Strait over the next four years

by Yong Jian November 9, 2024

The victory of Donald Trump in the United States presidential election on November 5 is no good news to Sino-US trade relations but may open a window for the discussion of China’s reunification with Taiwan, according to some Chinese commentators and media.

Since Trump won the election, Western media have been eager to know Beijing’s stances on the Ukrainian-Russia war, a possible 60% tariff to be imposed on Chinese goods and Taiwan matters.

Mao Ning, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, set official lines on the three issues by saying that:

China stays neutral on the Ukrainian crisis and supports all efforts that are conducive to the political settlement of the crisis.

China does not answer hypothetical questions about new US tariffs but it wants to reiterate that there is no winner in a trade war, nor does the world benefit from a trade war.

The Taiwan question is the most important and most sensitive issue in China-US relations, and China firmly opposes official interactions of any form between the US and Taiwan.

On November 7, Chinese President Xi Jinping extended congratulations to Trump on his election as the 47th US President. 

Xi said China and the US should find the right way to get along in the new era, so as to benefit both countries and the wider world.

”History teaches that China and the US gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation,” said Xi. ”A stable, sound and sustainable China-US relationship serves the two countries’ shared interests and meets the aspiration of the international community.”

Lack of optimism

It’s been eft to pundits to observe that Xi’s and Mao’s official words, while polite, by no means add up to a resounding cheer.

“Compared with the last ones in 2016, the Chinese leader’s latest congratulations to Trump have skipped the pleasantries,” Hua Dianlong, a Hubei-based columnist, says in an article published on November 7.

This, Hua adds, shows that “China is not optimistic about the continuous development of Sino-US relations. The change in wordings has shown the reality.”

“Before Trump won the election in 2016, China and the US had maintained a good relationship,” Hua says. But now with his re-election in 2024, “Sino-US relations have reached a historic low point. We are very vigilant in the face of Trump coming to power again.”

He says an intensifying trade war between China and the US and the United States’ continued efforts to contain China seem to be inevitable.

But, like some other commentators, Hua thinks there is a possible ray of light. The Taiwan issue, he says, may be a topic for Beijing and Washington to use to break the deadlock as Trump has a different mindset from the Biden-Harris administration.  

Liang Xun, a Henan-based writer likewise looking for a bright spot, says in an article that the Chinese leader’s congratulations to Trump can be summed up in one Chinese word – cooperation.

“In the Trump 2.0 era, the US will not change its overall stance of suppressing China, and may even strengthen its competition and confrontation against China and bring numerous challenges and pressures to the Chinese economy,” she says.

“But Trump may have to seek China’s diplomatic support to fulfill its promise of ending the Ukraine war,” she adds. “On the Taiwan question, Trump may adopt a relatively pragmatic stance and avoid taking drastic actions to prevent the situation in the Taiwan Strait from escalating.”

She says she made this conclusion as Trump has repeatedly urged Taiwan to pay “protection fees.” 

“Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview in July. 

Trump also accused Taiwan of having taken “almost 100%” of the chip sector from the US. But some chip experts countered that Taiwan had paid great efforts to develop its chip industry.

Protection fees

Last month, Trump told the Wall Street Journal that if China goes into Taiwan, the US will impose 150-to-200% tariffs on Chinese goods. 

Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), said on October 30 that the US will always pursue “America first” and that Taiwan could go from being a pawn to an outcast at any time.

Some Chinese commentators said China will benefit from Trump’s Taiwan policy. 

Yan Mo, a columnist of Guancha.cn, writes in an article that the US can charge Taiwan “protection fees” either by forcing the island to buy more weapons from America, or using tariffs to force Taiwanese chipmakers to invest more in or relocate to the US.

“In the past few years, Biden had successfully lured the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) to build foundries in Arizona for US$65 billion,” Yan says. “But such investment will not be enough to satisfy Trump’s appetite, what he wants is Taiwan’s entire electronic supply chain.”

“After Trump has sucked all the industrial power out of the island, it’ll be time for mainland China to make its move – forcing Taiwan to discuss reunification,” Yan says. 

He says that Trump will avoid increasing arms sales to Taiwan as he knows this would trigger Beijing’s attack on the island, a situation that would cost the US a lot more money. He concludes that the Trump 2.0 era may be an opportunity for China to resolve the Taiwan matters. 

Of course, not everyone agrees with Yan’s prediction.  

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai, for one, has said that Taiwan is willing to take on more responsibility and would defend itself.⍐ 

Yong Jian is a contributor to Asia Times. He is a Chinese journalist specializing in news of technology, the economy and politics.

“Germany has only one place, and that’s on Israel’s side,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

Israel über alles

Ricardo Nuno Costa, November 08 2024

It seems clear that after decades in the room, the elephant can no longer be hidden in the German political debate.

Israel über alles

“Germany has only one place, and that’s on Israel’s side,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag, justifying the delivery of arms to Tel Aviv.

One wonders if this partial stance is what is expected of a country that claims to be the leader of the European project, with geopolitical ambitions in an increasingly multipolar world. For the global majority, the answer is no, but in Germany, the subject is thorny and shrouded in taboos. To top it off, the Federal Republic has just passed a law to prevent it from being debated.

It’s a clear rift between real and institutional Germany.

Berlin’s inability to call Tel Aviv to account on its international obligations only confirms Germany’s increasingly secondary role in the international arena. If the “engine of Europe” is constrained in its military role, it could at least be a diplomatic power, making use of its economic status. But its role is diminishing. Why is that?

In his latest book, “Krieg ohne Ende?” (War without end?), international political scientist Michael Lüders masterfully summarises the hypocrisy surrounding Germany’s involvement in the Zionist project from the beginning to the present day. The author suggests, in the form of a subtitle, “why we need to change our attitude towards Israel if we are to have peace in the Middle East.”

Germany is losing the credibility it has built up over decades in the eyes of the global majority. Today, the country is no longer seen with the same seriousness that we have become accustomed to in recent decades, but rather as a mere instrumental piece of the US in international relations. This is also the visible result of the “feminist foreign policy” that Annalena Baerbock has pursued as foreign minister over the last three years.

Defence of Israel is ‘Staatsräson’ of the Federal Republic

Germany has adopted the defence of Israel’s existence as ‘Staatsräson’ (raison d’État). It was during a visit by Chancellor Merkel to the Israeli Knesset in 2008 that this concept was first mentioned.

In the above-mentioned bestseller, it becomes clear that this principle is no accident, as it corresponds to the fact that Israel’s ‘raison d’État’ is the Holocaust, for which Germany is to blame. According to Mr. Lüders, the Jewish state used the Eichmann case to launch its ‘raison d’État’, while many other Nazi officials responsible for the persecution of the Jews had passed into the new Bonn nomenclature without being called to account. The most notorious case was that of Hans Globke, the eminence grise of the new regime, a key player in the USA’s fight against the USSR. He had previously drafted the Nuremberg race laws and was now Adenauer’s number two, protected by the new BND intelligence services and the CIA.

The SS officer Adolf Eichmann, kidnapped in Argentina by the Israelis, symbolically bore all the blame for Germany’s 1933-45 National Socialist’s period. After his hanging in 1962 for crimes against the Jewish people during the Holocaust, in the only judicial execution carried out in Israel to date, the FRG finally officially recognised Israel in 1965, after years of collaboration (since 1952). This marked the beginning of a complex relationship that remains opaque to this day.

An important part of this relationship has been the multi-billion dollar military industry within the Atlanticist framework. The most significant case, again unclear, was the corruption scandal over the sale of three nuclear-capable submarines and four corvettes sold during the Merkel governments to the Netanyahu government in 2016 for almost 4 billion euros, which ended up being paid for in part by German taxpayers.

In a current example, political scientist Kristin Helberg, who specialises in the Middle East, expressed her surprise on the public channel in October that Berlin was not helping Israel with defensive weapons against a hypothetical Iranian attack – which in her view would be legitimate – but by delivering ammunition to be used on civilian populations, contrary to the Geneva Convention.

Germany involved in a genocide

With its arms support for Israeli attacks on civilians in Gaza and Lebanon, Germany is not only committing an international offence that is costing it the current cases opened at the ICC and ICJ, but is also seeing its reputation stained in the biggest international forums by the global majority, on which its industrial export model depends.

On 14 October, German Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said at a press conference in Berlin that the German government “sees no signs that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza” and that “Israel undoubtedly has the right to self-defence against Hamas”, and two days later Chancellor Scholz said loudly in the Bundestag that “there will be more arms deliveries – Israel can always count on that.”

Criticising Israel will be banned

In its increasingly radical philo-Zionist course, the German political class passed a new resolution “to protect, preserve and strengthen Jewish life in Germany”, to which only the parties of the governing coalition and the CDU/CSU were called, without consulting the AfD and BSW. The controversial and non-transparent resolution promises to pursue “increasingly open and violent anti-Semitism in right-wing and Islamist extremist circles, as well as a relativising approach and the rise of Israel-related and left-wing anti-imperialist anti-Semitism.”

The document mentions that “cases of anti-Semitism have increased” since the Hamas attack on Israel a year ago, but fails to mention that German law has since come to consider anti-Semitic the manifestation of various expressions in favour of the Palestinian cause such as the slogan “From the river to the sea Palestine will be free” among other slogans, chants, insignia or even posts published on the internet, which are now considered and counted as punishable anti-Semitic crimes.

“The German Bundestag reaffirms its decision to ensure that no organisation or project that spreads antisemitism, questions Israel’s right to exist, calls for a boycott of Israel or actively supports the BDS movement receives financial support,” the document goes on to say.

Recently, the rector of the Berlin Institute for Advanced Study, Barbara Stollberg-Rilinger, complained that the freedom of study of the scientific community is under massive threat. “What distinguishes antisemitism from legitimate criticism of the Israeli government?” she asked. “And above all, who defines what antisemitism is? This is not at all clear. The definition is vague and leaves enormous room for legal uncertainty,” she asserted.

The divorce between the political class and public perception

It’s clear that the text of the new law aims to exclude the AfD from public debate, using the magic buzzword of the “far right”, but it also weighs heavily on the BSW, where the Palestinian cause and the multipolarist vision are obvious. A recent study by the Forsa research institute for Stern/RTL corroborates the clear rift between real and institutional Germany. Whilst the former doesn’t want the country to be involved in the Middle East war, the political class has guaranteed its indispensable support for Israel as a ‘national interest’. Voters from all German parties are therefore unequivocally opposed to further arms deliveries to Tel Aviv. The BSW electorate (85 per cent) is in the lead, followed by the AfD (75 per cent), but also 60 per cent of SPD voters, 56 per cent of CDU/CSU voters and 52 per cent of FDP voters. Interestingly, the Greens’ electorate showed a 50-50 tie. In the national total, this corresponds to 60 per cent of the citizenry, with the difference in the east being more significant (75 per cent against).

The case of the AfD is more curious because as a party that was born out of contestation with the system on the issues not only of immigration, but also of foreign policy and others, and its electoral base is clearly critical of Berlin’s pro-Western policy, its leadership also has a disproportionate presence of the philo-Zionist element, which is no different from the rest of the political class.

According to another poll also from October, by Infratest Dimap for public television ARD and WELT daily, only 19 per cent of AfD supporters consider Israel to be a reliable partner, a noticeably lower percentage than in the CDU/CSU (34 per cent) the SPD (36 per cent) and the Greens (38 per cent).

AfD distances itself from the Zionist consensus

Probably because he knew how to interpret this discrepancy between leadership and base, AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla called for an end to aid to Tel Aviv and Germany’s ‘one-sided’ relationship with the Jewish state. “By supplying arms to Israel, you are accepting the dehumanisation of all civilian victims on both sides. They are not contributing to détente, but rather throwing fuel on the fire”, he said. It is “time to take a critical and objective look at the Israeli government”.

These statements come at a time of a clear move towards multipolarity within the party. Moreover, the principle of neutrality is the AfD’s official line. Its 2024 European electoral programme states that “the supply of arms to war zones does not serve peace in Europe”. At the risk of becoming just another political party, the AfD seems to want to meet the feelings of the majority of Germans and its social support base on foreign policy issues, which are now much debated by the general public.

It seems clear that after decades in the room, the elephant can no longer be hidden in the German political debate.⍐

Ricardo Nuno Costa ‒ geopolitical expert, writer, columnist, and editor-in-chief of geopol.pt, especially for «New Eastern Outlook»