Jews in These Seven Battleground States Could Swing the U.S. Election for Harris or Trump

Jews in These Seven Battleground States Could Swing the U.S. Election for Harris or Trump

The swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all home to Jewish populations whom both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will be counting on to vote for them on Tuesday. Here are the key numbers for this key demographic

Jews in These Seven Battleground States Could Swing the U.S. Election for Harris or Trump

Oct 31, 2024  Ben Samuels Washington Haaretz

WASHINGTON – By all accounts, the 2024 U.S. election is expected to be the closest presidential race in American history. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is the next president hinges on the results of seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The Jewish vote, and voters motivated by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, could impact the razor-thin margins, giving both the demographic and issue more significance than in perhaps any previous U.S. election.

U.S. President Joe Biden defeated Trump in 2020 in five of the states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania – by less than 3 percent, with Jewish voters making up an estimated 1 to 3 percent of their respective electorates.

Given their unprecedented significance, both the Republican and Democratic campaigns and Jewish organizations have invested more money than ever before in pushing their candidate to victory.

What are the campaigns doing to secure the Jewish vote?

The Harris campaign is paying particular attention to mobilizing Jewish voters in the states with the largest Jewish populations, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Trump or Harris? A special Haaretz debate asks the questions on Israel, Jews and the war

This has been done via national organizing calls, bringing together thousands of Jewish voters to hear Harris' message from key surrogates. This included from her directly as well as Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff – the first Jewish spouse of a U.S. president or vice president.

The Trump campaign, meanwhile, launched a Jewish Voices for Trump coalition in August with designated outreach staff. It has highlighted the GOP party platform where it has prioritized combating antisemitism in the pro-Palestinian campus protest movement, while accusing Harris of taking the Jewish-American community for granted.

The campaign has additionally held a series of events – the majority of which were associated with megadonor Miriam Adelson – aimed at emphasizing Trump's record as "the most pro-Israel president in U.S. history."

As Republican National Committee Spokesperson Elizabeth Pipko sees it, "Jewish Americans are hurting. They see that the Democratic Party of our parents and grandparents no longer exists."

How are Jewish organizations rallying behind Trump and Harris?

The Jewish Democratic Council of America and its associated political action committee has made more than 1.45 million direct voter contacts via phone, text and canvassing. It has made over 1 million direct voter contacts in the seven swing states, intending to exceed 2 million by Election Day.

It has sent more than 270 volunteers out-of-state volunteers to canvas in the five swing states with key Jewish constituencies. It has also spent nearly $2 million in ads in the seven states, with their viewership exceeding 25 million.

J Street has raised more than $6 million for the Harris campaign via its political fundraising arm – the largest Jewish organizational source of funds for her campaign during the 2024 election cycle.

Democratic Majority for Israel and its affiliated PAC have released a series of ads highlighting Trump's association with avowed antisemites and educating Jewish voters in swing states on Harris' pro-Israel record.

The Republican Jewish Coalition, meanwhile, dedicated $15 million to turning out the Jewish vote, with particular attention to Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan. It has additionally committed $5 million in direct fundraising for the campaign.

For more than a year, the RJC has had staff and 500 volunteers on the ground performing grassroots efforts on top of all the paid media.

It has hailed its operation as the largest and most comprehensive data-driven operation ever attempted in the Jewish community, including fostering a more sophisticated outreach effort. Their efforts have led them to confidently reject any poll indicating Trump is underperforming with Jewish voters compared to 2016.

The key states

All population data is taken from to Brandeis' American Jewish Population Project (published February 2021) unless otherwise noted.

Arizona

Number of electoral votes: 11

Jewish adult population: Approximately 115,000

2020 result: Biden win (0.3% margin)

Biden narrowly defeated Trump in 2020 by 10,000 votes – only the second time the Democrats won Arizona since the 1940s. Comprising 2.1 percent of the state's electorate, the Jewish vote will play a significant role in 2024, particularly in Maricopa County – the key for both Trump and Harris' hopes in winning the state.

Trump won Arizona in 2016 despite a significant shift toward Democrats in Maricopa. He lost in 2020 because of Maricopa's continued shift, despite improving in the state's rural areas. If Harris continues gaining in Maricopa, she may likely offset Trump's positive polling in the state's rural areas, suburbs and other border communities.

Eighty percent of Arizona's adult Jews reside in five districts, including parts of Tucson, Phoenix and other metropolitan areas within Maricopa County.

These districts are closely divided between leaning Democratic and Republican. Three of the top five districts are represented by Republicans, including the most heavily Jewish district holding the Phoenix metro area, which has 40,000 Jewish adults.

The Harris campaign delegated its Jewish liaison, Ilan Goldenberg, and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz to meet local voters. It also established a Jewish community leadership embedded with the local Jewish community, doing outreach and organizing get-out-the-vote efforts like door knocking, phone banks and op-eds in local papers.

The local Jewish community's moderation, meanwhile, is reflected in the state's political leaning, with 55 percent identifying or leaning Democrat compared to 39 percent Republican.

Georgia

Number of electoral votes: 16

Jewish adult population: Approximately 104,000

2020 result: Biden win (0.23% margin)

Roughly 68 percent of Georgia's Jews live in the Atlanta metro area. Four of the five districts holding this population are represented by Democrats, though the state's Jewish electorate skews more moderate than the national average. Fifty-four percent identify or lean Democrat compared to 38 percent Republican.

The state represented the most significant swing for Democrats in 2020, with the party winning Georgia for the first time in nearly 30 years after effectively overseeing a 33-point swing since Barack Obama's 2012 campaign.

While Hillary Clinton made gains in Atlanta in 2016, Trump's performance in smaller cities and rural areas kept the state in his pocket. Biden, meanwhile, outperformed in Atlanta while incrementally gaining support that Trump had claimed in 2016.

The most significant portion of Georgia's Jewish voters reside in Atlanta's northern suburbs, including the Fulton County cities of Sandy Springs and Roswell, in addition to portions of Cobb and DeKalb counties.

Several Georgia Republicans have been embroiled in controversies relating to Israel and the Jewish community. Rep. Andrew Clyde opposed supplemental military assistance to Israel, citing the lack of offset funding cuts. Rep. Mike Collins amplified an X post attacking a Jewish reporter over her religion. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, perhaps Trump's closest ally in Congress, has been linked to a handful of scandals. And state GOP official Kandiss Taylor appeared to agree with a white nationalist TV host who said Jews are "controlling everything."

Multiple Jewish civil rights organizations, meanwhile, filed a federal complaint with the U.S. Education Department last year alleging that the Fulton County School District created a "hostile" and "intolerable" environment following the October 7 Hamas attack.

Harris will need these Jewish votes if she hopes to defeat Trump, who will consider these votes added value on top of desired gains in rural areas and outperforming with male Black voters.

The Trump campaign sent Shabbos Kestenbaum – one of six Jewish students who sued Harvard University for discrimination earlier this year – as a surrogate. Rep. Ritchie Torres, one of the most ardent pro-Israel advocates in the Democratic Party, visited the state as a Harris surrogate accompanied by Goldenberg. Emhoff additionally appeared at a suburban Atlanta voter-engagement effort.

Michigan

Number of electoral votes: 15

Jewish adult population: Approximately 105,000

2020 result: Biden win (2.78% margin)

In Michigan, 77 percent of the Jewish community lives in the neighboring metro areas of Detroit, Ann Arbor and Lansing.

Comprising 1.4 percent of the state's electorate, the majority of these Jewish voters live in Democrat-controlled districts. The populace is consistently aligned with the national Jewish electorate, with 61 percent identifying or leaning Democrat compared to 31 percent Republican.

The state, which is notably part of the Democrats' vaunted "blue wall" that is its most likely path toward victory, has been identified by both campaigns as the potential bellwether for this election.

Trump's narrow 2016 victory in the state was an anomaly compared to decades-long historical trends – something Biden restored in his 2020 victory where he markedly regained ground previously ceded by Hillary Clinton, particularly in the Detroit area.

Whether Trump can restore his gains could largely hinge on how many voters are swayed by the Gaza war. Michigan is the epicenter of the Uncommitted National Movement, with 100,000 Democratic primary voters declining to vote for Biden earlier this year.

Pro-Palestinian protests have been omnipresent in the state over the past year, including dozens of students unfurling Palestinian flags and banners at the University of Michigan's commencement. There have been numerous incidents of antisemitism at the Ann Arbor campus beyond pro-Palestinian protests.

Leading Michigan Democrats have failed to reach a happy medium between the dueling camps, often finding themselves at odds with each other. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel accused Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American member of Congress, of antisemitism after she criticized Nessel for pressing charges against pro-Palestinian protesters at UMich. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, among the most popular Democrats nationwide, declined to involve herself in the spat, only worsening tensions.

A GOP-linked super PAC with financial ties to Trump megadonor Elon Musk has run targeted ads to voters opposed to Harris' Middle East policies, playing up her pro-Israel record and highlighting her Jewish husband in a bad-faith attack that has earned widespread derision.

She has seemingly failed to regain much ground with these disillusioned voters, some of whom have opted to vote for third-party candidates like Jill Stein. Meanwhile, more socially conservative Arab voters have publicly supported Trump despite his long-standing record and rhetoric targeting Arabs and Muslims.

Harris will need to expand Biden's totals in Oakland County, where tens of thousands of Jews reside, while Trump will need to reverse his 2020 showing in Detroit. Both will also need the Arab and progressive votes to trend in the way their campaigns are counting on.

Nevada

Number of electoral votes: 6

Jewish adult population: Approximately 41,000

2020 result: Biden win (2.39% margin)

While 75 percent of Nevada's Jewish voters chose Biden in 2020, according to an AP exit poll, he only won the state by approximately 33,000 votes.

Democrats have consistently won the state in recent elections, although by steadily decreasing margins. Trump gained ground in 2016 in Las Vegas, where the majority of the state's voters are based. While Biden regained traditional support in Vegas four years ago, Trump grew increasingly popular in rural areas.

Harris needs a decisive victory in Vegas, while Trump needs a historical outlier – whether that means him overperforming or her underperforming.

The key city is notably home to Miriam Adelson, the Israeli-American widow of Sheldon Adelson. She is among Trump's most important megadonors and has offered unprecedented support for him, based solely off his record on Israel as president. This includes rare public appearances where she has presented herself as a stamp of approval for the Jewish community, but also exceeding $100 million in donations to a pro-Trump super PAC.

North Carolina

Number of electoral votes: 16

Jewish adult population: Approximately 49,000

2020 result: Trump win (1.34% margin)

The Tar Heel State's Jews only make up 0.5 percent of the state's electorate, according to Jewish Heritage North Carolina, though Jewish concerns have headlined the race that has garnered the most national attention surrounding explicit right-wing antisemitism.

Jewish Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is running against Republican Mark Robinson, who has previously downplayed the threat of Nazism and repeatedly invoking antisemitic stereotypes. That was before he was revealed to have called himself a "Black Nazi" on a porn site's message board and praising the work of Hitler.

Other senior officials in North Carolina, including Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer, were subjected to antisemitic harassment in the weeks following Hurricane Helene – a result of right-wing coordinated conspiracies surrounding the federal response to the deadly storm, as well as rampant disinformation on X.

If the electorate were to vote for a president based on their vote for governor, North Carolina would likely not be so competitive. The Uncommitted movement, however, is particularly strong in North Carolina, with 12 percent of Democratic primary voters choosing "no preference" earlier this year.

Furthermore, it is the only one of the seven battleground states that went Trump's way over Biden in 2020. Rapidly evolving voting patterns, however, have pushed North Carolina into up-for-grabs territory – particularly in cities like Charlotte, which is home to 15,000 Jews, and Raleigh, whose residents are primarily northern transplants.

North Carolina may come down to what is greater: Harris' support in cities and urban areas, or Trump's gains in rural communities.

Pennsylvania

Number of electoral votes: 19

Jewish adult population: Approximately 299,000

2020 result: Biden win (1.17% margin)

Seventy-eight percent of the state's Jews reside in Delaware Valley, eastern Pennsylvania. Four of these districts – part of the greater Philadelphia suburbs – account for more than half of the state's Jewish electorate, with 67 percent identifying or leaning toward Democrats versus 26 percent Republican.

These Jewish adults – roughly 45 percent of Jewish voters in battleground states, and an estimated 3 percent of the state's total electorate – are particularly important since Biden only defeated Trump by just over 1 percentage point in 2020.

Trump became the first GOP candidate since Ronald Reagan to win Pennsylvania in 2016, defeating Hillary Clinton by less than 50,000 votes. Biden narrowly defeated Trump in 2020 after outperforming Clinton in the state's biggest vote centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (and their respective suburbs).

Both Harris and Trump are banking on the suburbs, with Harris additionally needing to ensure voter turnout in the cities. Trump's most likely path to victory in Pennsylvania will be regaining his 2020 losses in the Philadelphia suburbs, which include the state's most significant Jewish population.

The state has been at the epicenter of many controversies stemming from October 7 and the Gaza war, with the University of Pennsylvania and its leadership at the heart of the campus antisemitism saga. Demonstrations targeting Israeli restaurants sparked debate on where the line on appropriate protests should be drawn.

The state's Jewish Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, became one of the country's most nationally recognizable political figures after nearly being tapped as Harris' running mate. She passed on Shapiro following a remarkably fierce campaign from progressive Democrats targeting him over his support of Israel – an effort several critics deemed as flirting with antisemitism.

While Shapiro, who has since been one of her most effective national surrogates, and Harris both denied his religion played a role in her decision, the Trump campaign frequently cited antisemitism as the primary reason he did not get the nod.

A GOP-linked super PAC with financial ties to Musk has run targeted ads to voters displeased with Harris' attempts at mollifying progressive voters, playing up her supposed enablement of antisemitism and support for campus protesters.

Rep. Peter Deutsch, a former Democratic member of Congress who has since endorsed Trump, campaigned for the GOP nominee. Other prominent Trump supporters also live in the Philly suburbs, including Zionist Organization of America CEO Mort Klein and megadonors Jeff Yass and Arthur Dantchik.

Emhoff, meanwhile, participated in a get-out-the-Jewish-vote event in the Philly suburbs, while Rep. Dan Goldman met with Jewish voters in Philadelphia and Rep. Adam Schiff met with Jewish voters in Pittsburgh. The second gentleman also delivered what amounted to the Harris campaign's argument to American Jews in Pittsburgh – the site of 2018's Tree of Life synagogue shooting – one week before Election Day.

Wisconsin

Number of electoral votes: 10

Jewish adult population: Approximately 42,000

2020 result: Biden win (0.63% margin)

Fifty-seven percent of Wisconsin's Jews reside in the Milwaukee and Madison metropolitan areas.

They comprise less than 1 percent of the state's electorate, with 66 percent identifying or leaning toward Democrat compared to 26 percent Republican.

Though the numbers may not be overwhelming, Wisconsin has seen the most consistently narrow margins in both of Trump's previous campaigns – he both won in 2016 and lost in 2020 by less than a percentage point.

The Democrats' biggest improvement in 2020 was in the areas where Jewish voters predominately reside. This, however, also includes many young and progressive voters whom have expressed dissatisfaction with Harris' Middle East policies.

This is driven home by the fact that 48,000 voters chose "uninstructed" during the state's Democratic primary. Republicans, who held their convention in Milwaukee in hopes of pushing the state in their favor, recently attacked Harris for her engagement with a pro-Palestinian protester at a Milwaukee campaign event, after she appeared to say what he was talking about was "real" after he explicitly accused Israel of genocide.

Both Trump and Harris must outperform Biden in Milwaukee and its suburbs if they hope to take the state⍐. 

As U.S. election nears, ‘fascism’ is in the spotlight again

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As U.S. election nears, ‘fascism’ is in the spotlight again

Though former members of Trump’s administration have called him a fascist, his political prospects have not dimmed. What does that tell us about the term’s power and usefulness?

 Column by Ishaan Tharoor November 4, 2024

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Former president Donald Trump, who could soon return to the White House, is a “fascist to the core,” according to retired Gen. Mark A. Milley, who served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump. “No one has ever been as dangerous to this country as Donald Trump,” Milley told legendary Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward in a recently published book. “Now I realize he’s a total fascist. He is the most dangerous person to this country.”

Trump’s former chief of staff, John F. Kelly

 

Trump’s former chief of staff, John F. Kelly, said in interviews with the New York Times and the Atlantic that Trump openly spoke of his admiration for Nazi-era generals. Trump’s rhetoric tells its own voluminous story: Just in this election cycle, he has warned darkly of migrants “poisoning the blood” of the nation, bemoaned the bad “genes” of foreign arrivals, vowed purges of the government to install ideological loyalists and has suggested unleashing the military on his domestic opponents.

For most of the past decade, analysts and pundits have debated the merits of branding Trump with the f-word. Some argue that his half-baked attempts at imposing a ban on Muslim migration, his racist invective toward non-Western countries of origin for many migrants, his casting of society as one riven by enemies within who must be crushed, his contempt for the press and cultivation of a strongman’s personality cult all draw from the classic fascist playbook from a century ago.

Following

Trump and his campaign team “believe that by using the tactics of the 1930s, they can win,” wrote the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum. “The deliberate dehumanization of whole groups of people; the references to police, to violence, to the ‘bloodbath’ that Trump has said will unfold if he doesn’t win; the cultivation of hatred not only against immigrants but also against political opponents — none of this has been used successfully in modern American politics.”

None of this has doomed Trump’s political prospects. An ABC-Ipsos poll last month asked respondents if they saw Trump as a fascist, which it defined as “a political extremist who seeks to act as a dictator, disregards individual rights and threatens or uses force against their opponents?” Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said yes (while only 22 percent suggested Vice President Kamala Harris fit the definition). But almost a tenth who thought Trump was a fascist said they were still voting for him.

Consider his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who was one of the first public figures to openly liken Trump to Adolf Hitler. “What changed since Vance offered that comparison in 2016 isn’t how Trump approaches politics. It’s how willing Vance has become to acquiesce to that approach,” wrote my colleague Philip Bump. “So it is with the right writ large.”

That’s true outside the United States, as well. A series of national elections delivered victories or conspicuously large vote shares to European political parties once considered beyond the pale. In Sweden, voters turned the country’s far-right Sweden Democrats into political kingmakers in the governing coalition, no matter the consternation of more centrist rivals over their documented neo-fascism and Nazi apologia. In Austria, France, Italy and the Netherlands, the far right has outperformed the center right in recent elections.

This is why some analysts see diminishing returns in the “fascism” charge. What Trump’s opponents are “trying to say is that the candidate is fascist, therefore don’t vote for him,” historian Daniel Steinmetz-Jenkins, editor of a recently published collection of essays on fascism in America, told Politico in an interview. “This is why it’s risky, because it seems to be suggesting that maybe the people themselves who are voting for him are fascist, or if they are even thinking about voting for him, they are knowingly and willingly voting for a monster. And that can be alienating … to voters.”

 

Thanks to widespread disquiet over immigration and mounting disaffection with the continent’s liberal status quo, the far right has gone mainstream in much of Europe. Its ascent has mirrored the rise of Trumpism, and both camps have drawn inspiration from each other. “The hard right on both sides of the Atlantic will celebrate each other’s victories, view them as encouragement and validation of their own revolutionary endeavors, and where possible, build alliances,” Constanze Stelzenmüller, a senior analyst at the Brookings Institution, told me. 

 

Still, outside of Italy, far-right parties with neo-fascist roots are not leading any government. The nature of parliamentary coalition-building checks their power and forces political compromise. In France’s mixed presidential system, two rounds of voting make it hard for the far-right candidate to win outright. And the volatility of parliamentary politics has made it hard for many far-right factions to retain or deepen their influence after breakthrough elections.

That’s why some analysts think it’s more useful to cast Trump in line with figures such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, rather than some of his Western European fellow travelers. These illiberal demagogues have consolidated power through a ruthless majoritarian approach, counting on winning just enough votes in a polarized political environment over which they have disproportionate influence.

“Trump is similar to far-right populists like Narendra Modi and Viktor Orban who claim uniquely to represent the people, who delegitimize their political opponents as traitors, and who incite hatred against already vulnerable minorities,” wrote German political scientist Jan-Werner Müller. “Such a strategy has authoritarian consequences; those in turn enable crony capitalism, or outright kleptocracy, which has been crucial for the consolidation of regimes like Orban’s.”

Orban, for example, has undermined Hungary’s checks and balances through judicial appointments, the erosion of Hungarian independent media and tactical gerrymandering of elections. The scale of his national power is a source of envy among European counterparts and admiration among the U.S. right.

“A president who has authoritarian tendencies would seek to centralize power,” Zsuzsanna Vegh, a political analyst at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, told Bloomberg News. “A Trump administration could look at the European far right when it comes to creating an ideological justification for why it’s necessary.⍐”

 

Israel’s 2025 war budget squeezes disposable income of working-class households

Israel’s 2025 war budget squeezes disposable income of working-class households

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, at the start of cabinet meeting meant to
approve the 2025 state budget, October 31, 2024 (GPO)

Government drops plans to freeze welfare benefits and tax ‘advanced study’ funds, instead wants to raise National Insurance payments while barely cutting coalition funds

Israelis are set next year to pay more taxes and are slated to have less disposable household income while receiving fewer public and government services, after the cabinet approved the 2025 budget spending plan to finance rising war costs.

On Friday, Israel’s cabinet passed the first hurdle for the passage of the 2025 budget after making last-minute changes, which included scrapping a plan to freeze government allowances and benefits and removing tax benefits to savings vehicles. This is the good news.

The bad news is that there is a trade-off. The government still needs to put together an austerity package of NIS 37 billion ($9.9 billion) in the form of tax hikes and steep spending cuts to fill a fiscal gap between expected revenue and high defense expenses, as the country is almost 13 months into a war with the Hamas terror group in Gaza and a conflict with its ally the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon. The government has a target to rein in a budget deficit that has already ballooned to 8.5 percent of GDP. For 2025, the deficit ceiling has been set at 4.3%.

Instead of a freeze of welfare benefits paid to the elderly, people with disabilities, Holocaust survivors and families of fallen soldiers proposed by the Finance Ministry, it was decided to increase National Insurance contributions by a corresponding amount.

“The main thing that comes out of this budget is that the working population that pays taxes and serves in the army is going to be hurt the most,” Dr. Gali Ingber, head of finance studies at the College of Management Academic Studies, told The Times of Israel. “Many of the tax changes will affect employees’ net income, putting a big burden on the working class.”

Israelis are set next year to pay more taxes and are slated to have less disposable household income while receiving fewer public and government services, after the cabinet approved the 2025 budget spending plan to finance rising war costs.

“We would have expected the government to set an example and show us that they are cutting budgets from ministries, but they went for a 5% across-the-board spending cut, which is not enough, and they left coalition funds almost intact,” Ingber lamented.

Gali Ingber, head of finance studies at the College of Management
Academic Studies. (Courtesy)

The NIS 607 billion ($162 billion) state budget spending plan for 2025 still needs to be approved by the Knesset, and there are likely to be further changes and adjustments along the process. It must be passed by the end of March or the government would automatically fall, triggering early elections.

“It was anticipated that the proposed freeze on government allowances and removing the tax benefit on keren hishtalmut [advanced study] funds would not be passed as these create a lot of noise in the public,” said Yoram Leviant, a pension and retirement expert. “The government could have cut their own expenses and give up some unnecessary government offices and jobs, but it is easier to take additional taxes from the working population.”

“The average middle-class family is going to see an increase in taxes and other expenses because net income will not go up as much as taxes and living expenses,” Leviant added.

Summary of the tax-related measures to come into effect in 2025 if passed by the Knesset:

• National Insurance contributions, which include health tax payments, will be increased. Currently, the employee contribution rate is 3.5% up to a wage of NIS 7,522 per month and about 7% on income above that. The government has not yet published the full details of the hike but it is expected to add between NIS 1,000 to NIS 2,000 a year in contributions to an average household. National Insurance contributions are often described as a form of tax, as it is collected by the state to finance public goods.
• A freeze of income tax brackets and tax credit points, which means that they will not be adjusted higher in line with inflation. As consumer prices are expected to be around 4% this year and 3% next year, many workers may end up seeing their real post-tax incomes drop, according to Ingber. “If our net income is going to stay the same while inflation is around 3%, then our real wage is going down, and the purchasing power to buy goods with the same money will be hurt,” said Ingber.
• Freeze of two recuperation days per employee in 2025, which translates into a reduction of about NIS 800 in recuperation pay for every worker.
• Value-added tax, which is an indirect tax that is collected through the purchase of goods and services, will rise from the current 17% to 18%. VAT in Israel is levied on most consumer goods and services. It is a regressive tax, meaning that a higher rate harms the lower-income population more than higher earners, and contributes to increasing the already high cost of living in Israel.
• The tax exemption rate on pensions, which was planned to be raised, is expected to remain at its current rate in 2025.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (C) meets with the head of the Histadrut Labor Federation Arnon Bar-David (2nd L) meet on September 12, 2024 (Courtesy/Smotrich’s spokesperson)

Some of the proposed tax changes and austerity steps that were axed for now:

• Taxing interest and profits accumulated under Israel’s only short-term, tax-free savings plan — a so-called “advanced study” fund known in Hebrew as keren hishtalmut. The fund allows investors to withdraw money accumulated after six years without paying a capital gains tax.
• Freezing government welfare benefits paid to the elderly, people with disabilities, Holocaust survivors and families of fallen soldiers, with the exception of child allowances.
• Cancellation of the VAT exemption for incoming tourists.
• Freezing the automatic update on the minimum wage, which harms employee salaries in the public and private sector.

Yoram Leviant, pension and retirement expert. (Courtesy)

Alongside the tax hikes, the Finance Ministry plans to cut hundreds of millions of shekels from government ministries and services, including health, education and welfare in 2025. The government also left in place a sum of about NIS 4.1 billion, cut from NIS 4.3 billion, in controversial coalition funds — monies doled out to fulfill political promises made when wrangling to form a coalition government.

“We would have expected the government to navigate money to sectors that encourage future growth, for example, to encourage the high-tech sector and support local agriculture, or build hospitals, as well as a new medicine faculty in university as we don’t have enough doctors in Israel,” said Ingber.

Economists have already cautioned that the government’s deficit target of 4.3% for 2025 is too optimistic as it assumes a conclusion of the war by the end of 2024.

“If the security situation worsens and the war lasts longer, there are probably going to be additional budget allocations and the need for resources to finance security expenses,” said Leviant⍐.

'Too close to call': US to enter Election Day with tightly drawn race

'Too close to call': US to enter Election Day with tightly drawn race 

Nikki Fuller, 56, flexes her muscles while standing on a truck bed, as supporters of Donald
Trump gather ahead of the presidential election in West Palm Beach, Florida, November 4. REUTERS/Callaghan O'Hare

By Yang Sheng Published: Nov 04, 2024 Global Times

The two candidates of 2024 US presidential election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former president Donald Trump, made their final push on Monday, one day before the Election Day, amid the tightly drawn presidential campaign. 

The Associated Press (AP) reported on Monday that Harris was scheduled to spend all of Monday in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes offer the largest prize among the states expected to determine the Electoral College outcome. The vice president and Democratic nominee was scheduled to visit working-class areas including Allentown and end with a late-night Philadelphia rally that includes Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey.

Harris on Monday discussed her plans to build an "opportunity economy" and outlined specific economic proposals during a pre-taped radio interview with Univision Radio's Spanish-language program, CNN reported. 

The Democratic and Republican tickets also have raised hundreds of millions of dollars from donors in these states, and their political parties have spent about $1 billion in advertising.

Trump plans four rallies in three states, beginning in Raleigh, North Carolina and stopping twice in Pennsylvania with events in Reading and Pittsburgh. The Republican nominee and former president ends his campaign the way he ended the first two, with a late Monday night event in Grand Rapids, Michigan, AP reported.

A recent New York Times/Siena poll shows that Trump and Harris are effectively tied in Pennsylvania, each receiving 48 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, according to FiveThirtyEight's National Polls tracker, Harris holds a narrow lead of 1 percentage point over Trump. However, this lead is shrinking, indicating that either candidate has a strong chance of winning, Al Jazeera reported.

In the final hours before US Election Day, Kamala Harris appealed to voters upset by the Gaza war, while Donald Trump intensified his violent rhetoric with a comment about journalists being shot, France24 reported.

A CNN analysis said that whichever candidate wins the presidential election, history will be made. 

If Trump wins, he will be only the second defeated president to win a nonconsecutive term. He will complete one of the most staggering political comebacks, being convicted of a crime and escaping two attempts on his life this year. If Harris wins, she could shatter the line of nearly 250 years of male commanders in chief and become the first woman president, CNN reported.  

About 77 million Americans have already voted early, but Harris and Trump are pushing to turn out many millions more supporters on Tuesday. Either result on Election Day will yield a historic outcome, according to AP. 

According to the US News on Thursday, across all seven swing states, the two candidates and their running mates have made visits almost 200 times since President Joe Biden exited the race on July 21. The Democratic and Republican tickets also have raised hundreds of millions of dollars from donors in these states, and their political parties have spent about $1 billion in advertising.

Election day polling times vary from state to state. The first polls close on Election Day at 6pm ET in some counties in Indiana and Kentucky, and the last polls close at 1am ET Wednesday, November 6, in Alaska, CNN reported, adding the result may take a while. In 2020, the process took days as multiple states were decided by incredibly close margins

Too close to call

Fox News reported on Sunday that the final New York Times/Siena College Battleground poll of the 2024 race shows a razor-tight election in the battleground states just days before the election. 

"Too close to call," Siena Research declared in a social media post about the poll, according to Fox News.

Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Monday that this year's election is probably the most difficult one scholars have had to predict, and the difficulty is not only about "who will win," but also about "what will happen after the election results have been announced."

As for ripple effects, US media outlets have reported multiple incidents and expressed concerns about election violence. National Guard has been activated to prevent situation similar to the Capitol Hill riot. 

In a phone conversation with ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl on Sunday morning, Trump said he has "a substantial lead" and predicted the winner of the election will be known by election night.

As for when he will address the country about the election results, Trump said, "I'll be out there at the right time."

Lü Xiang, an expert on US studies and research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said neither candidate will accept defeat easily, because they have bet too much on this campaign⍐. 

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