Climate Change Risk Assessment for Kurunegala, Sri Lanka: Water and Heat Waves

by 

Hanna Cho

Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Korea Environment Institute, 232 Gareum-ro, Sejong 30121, Korea

Climate 2020, 8(12), 140; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8120140

Received: 2 November 2020 / Revised: 23 November 2020 / Accepted: 24 November 2020 / Published: 27 November 2020

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Abstract

Sri Lanka is experiencing various social and environmental challenges, including drought, storms, floods, and landslides, due to climate change. One of Sri Lanka’s biggest cities, Kurunegala, is a densely populated city that is gradually turning into an economic revitalization area. This fast-growing city needs to establish an integrated urban plan that takes into account the risks of climate change. Thus, a climate change risk assessment was conducted for both the water and heat wave risks via discussions with key stakeholders. The risk assessment was conducted as a survey based on expert assessment of local conditions, with awareness surveys taken by residents, especially women. The assessment determined that the lack of drinking water was the biggest issue, a problem that has become more serious due to recent droughts caused by climate change and insufficient water management. In addition, the outbreak of diseases caused by heat waves was identified as a serious concern. Risk assessment is integral to developing an action plan for minimizing the damage from climate change. It is necessary to support education and awareness in developing countries so that they can perform risk assessment well and develop both problem-solving and policy-making abilities to adapt to a changing climate.

Keywords: 

climate change adaptation; climate change risk assessment; climate resilience; Kurunegala; risk factors of water; heat waves

1. Introduction

Sri Lanka is an island located in the Indian Ocean (Figure 1), which is affected by various natural hazards, including weather-related events, such as cyclones, monsoonal rain and subsequent flooding, and landslides [1]. Sri Lanka has experienced significant and systematic atmosphere warming in all regions [2]. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by climate change in 2018 [3]. The year 2018 began with severe monsoon rains from 20 to 26 May, affecting 20 districts, resulting in at least 24 deaths, more than 170,000 people affected, and nearly 6000 people displaced [4].

Figure 1. Location of Kurunegala (a) and the expansion in Kurunegala city (b) (1995–2017) (The state of Sri Lankan Cities, 2018).

Sri Lanka has a total area of 65,610 km2 and a population of 21.8 million, including 3.704 million urban residents living in 64 municipal areas [5]. It is a lower-middle-income country, with a GDP per capita of USD 3853 (2019). Following 30 years of civil war that ended in 2009, the economy grew at an average of 5.3% from 2010–2019 [6]. The country’s propitious location favored rapid development projects, such as mega cities, airports, harbors, urban beautification projects, and major highways, during the last ten years [7].

Kurunegala, located in the north-western province, was once the capital of one of the ancient Kingdoms of Sri Lanka. The city is now the capital of the Kurunegala District and is experiencing rapid growth and development [5], with its main economic sectors based on service and industry [8]. This city is one of the most intensively developed economic and administrative capitals in the north-western Province of Sri Lanka, and it is one of the central cities directly connected to a number of other major capital cities and towns.

Most urban systems in Kurunegala are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and the city has faced challenges while attempting to adapt to climate change. There is an increased need to build with increased risk resilience and develop more and diverse adaptation measures to protect the economic and social wellbeing of city dwellers. To develop a climate change adaptation plan, several processes are needed, i.e., analysis of climate change impacts, vulnerability assessments, and risk assessments are all key processes needed to develop this plan [9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16]. Assessment and analysis of current and future climate change risks and vulnerabilities are required for the development of robust climate change adaptation policies. They inform policy decision-makers of the potential effects of climate change, such that their results can be used to choose among available strategies and their associated technical and social plans for climate change adaptation.

Therefore, this study aims to conduct a climate change risk assessment, the results of which will be used for the development of a climate change adaptation plan for Kurunegala City. This process can also improve the climate resilience of other local cities that are vulnerable to climate change.

2. Materials and Methods

Kurunegala city is a densely built residential, business, and commercial area, with a constantly increasing traffic volume and a significantly decreasing amount of green space. Kurunegala city is one of the sprawling cities [5]. Urban sprawl is typically defined as unplanned and uncoordinated low density expansion and involves rapid land consumption as rural spaces transition to urban land use [17]. Urban sprawl can be observed in the Kurunegala city, as demonstrated by satellite images from 1995, 2001, 2012, 2017 (Figure 1). In 1995, the image shows a very small urban space, concentrated in a few areas at the center of the municipal council area. By 2007, we can see significant sprawling expansion in urban and semi-urban areas.

The city’s climate remains hot throughout the year and is exacerbated by the rock outcrops surrounding the city, which retain heat during the day. Through the data of the past 10 years, the highest mean monthly temperature was observed during the month of May (26.82 °C), whereas relatively-cooler temperature was experienced in January (23.45 °C). Similar to the nation-wide trend, air temperature in Kurunegala exhibited a general increase. In the year 2016, the mean annual temperature in Kurunegala was 25.92 °C, which is 0.08 to 1.25 °C higher as compared with the previous year [18]. Monsoons occur from May to August and again from October to January. The average annual rainfall in Kurunegala is approximately 2000 mm [2,5]. Sri Lanka experienced a nation-wide drought from the beginning of the year 2016 up to the year 2017. Increase in temperature and lack of rainfall resulted in massive damage in the agricultural produce of the country, especially in the north-western region. Only 458 mm of cumulative rainfall was experienced in Kurunegala in the year 2016. This value was almost 45% lower as compared with the decadal average rainfall experienced in Kurunegala [18]. The city is facing socio-spatial climate vulnerabilities, with the most crucial being extreme heat conditions, periods of flooding, disaster-related public health crises, a decrease in drinking water reserves, and groundwater pollution [9,10,11,12].

Climate change risk assessments are conducted to understand how current and projected risk factors impact a community and are a key element of climate change adaptation policy development. They inform policy decision-makers of the potential risks of climate change and provide them with means to evaluate its impacts, as well as to compare different strategies and policies.

For the assessment of climate change risk and vulnerability at the community level, various methods have been studied and performed [10,11,12,13,14,15,16,19,20,21,22]. In South Korea, both quantitative and qualitative data, as well as information to characterize socio-ecological systems, are required, as both current and predicted risks and vulnerabilities caused by climate change should be included in the assessment [10,11,12,15,23]. Collecting enough data to understand the impact of climate change in Kurunegala city is difficult; therefore, the assessment focuses on the qualitative method. Quantitative assessment using scientific physical parameters is also needed to increase the accuracy of risk identification in the future.

The qualitative method is a survey-based assessment approach and includes several steps to solve the problem. The purpose of the survey-based assessment approach is to prioritize the risk factors that present the latest problems in Kurunegala city.

The risk assessment was carried out via the following steps.

2.1. Step 1: Establish the Context

This stage determines the subject area and purpose. The target area for risk assessment is Kurunegala city, where the risk assessment is limited to water and heat wave problems and is based on key stakeholder information and field observations.

2.2. Step 2: Identify the Risks

This step confirms what the types of risks are. To identify the most serious risk in terms of water management and heat stress in Kurunegala city, a detailed set of indicators should be established. Based on Korean examples [23,24,25,26,27,28,29], the Kurunegala Municipal Council (KMC) developed their own indicators considering the current situation within their city. KMC developed the following indicators. The difference in Korea’s case is that there are no DWR and SDF indicators there. The discovery of indicators for drinking water and sanitation is solely a reflection of the situation in Kurunegala city, Sri Lanka.

• Drinking water resources risk/vulnerability to drought (DWR); Risk or vulnerability on sources of useful or potentially useful portable water
• Water management risk/vulnerability (WM); Risk or vulnerability on water management that is the control and movement of water resources to minimize damage to life and property and to maximize efficient, beneficial use
• Water quality and aquatic ecosystems (WQAE); Risk or vulnerability on water quality and the condition or health of waterways, like rivers, wetlands
• Water resources risk/vulnerability (WR); Risk or vulnerability on resource of water that is useful or potentially useful, for agricultural, industrial, household, recreational and environmental activities
• Sanitation risk/vulnerability to droughts and floods (SDF); Risk or vulnerability on sanitation, which is the process of keeping places clean and healthy, especially by providing a sewage system and a clean water supply, due to drought and flood
• Health risk/vulnerability to floods (HF); Risk or vulnerability of health that is impacted by flood
• Health and infrastructure risk/vulnerability to heat stress (HIH); Risk or vulnerability on health and infrastructure that is impacted by heat stress and drought

2.3. Step 3: Analyze the Risks

Detailed risk factors for each indicator should be analyzed to prioritize the risks of climate change in Kurunegala city. The 84 risk factors determined to be indicators were collected from the Korean national and municipal climate change assessment. KMC reviewed the list of risk factors and revised it to suit their city. Experts and environment ministry officials in the Kurunegala modified and excavated indicators reflecting the characteristics of the city. A total of 57 risk factors were finalized for Kurunegala city (Appendix A).

2.4. Step 4: Evaluate the Risks

For the planning, an adaptation action plan for Kurunegala city, we needed to prioritize the risks and find the largest and most serious climate change impacts. Basically, it should be evaluated using objective and quantitative data and information. If quantitative assessment is difficult, it can be diagnosed and predict regional risks through qualitative methods of collecting opinions and discussing them at T/F meetings, expert advice, workshops, etc., using data collected through statistical data, interviews with officials, and surveys. Therefore, a survey was conducted to evaluate the priority of these risk factors because of the lack of quantitative data.

Although it is difficult to quantitatively express the risks of climate change, this study attempted to evaluate climate change with as much objectivity as possible to prepare for its effects. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), risk is correlated with “Vulnerability”, “Exposure”, and “Hazard”. Risk is often represented as the probability of an occurrence of hazardous events multiplied by the impacts of these events [30].

Seven indicators and fifty-seven risk factors related to water and heat waves were agreed upon through a meeting between key KMC stakeholders and the Sri Lankan Ministry of Environment. The probability of occurrence and impact of 57 risk factors were each measured on a five-point scale by 35 experts in Kurunegala city. The expert survey was conducted at the Consultant Workshop on 17–19 July 2019. Experts are water and heat wave experts who have been well aware of the current state of Kurunegala city for more than five years recommended by the KMC. The criteria for five-point scale are presented in Table 1 and Table 2. Based on the average value of the experts for each indicator, the score was calculated by multiplying these values, and then each indicator and risk factor were ranked (Table A1, Table A2, Table A3, Table A4, Table A5, Table A6 and Table A7).

Table 1. Guidance on possibility of occurrence (Scale).

Table 2. Guidance on impacts (Scale).

Generally, adaptation plans should be established in various fields, including water, ecosystem, land use, agriculture, fisheries, and industry, etc. As cooperation from multiple ministries is needed, opinions from experts in other areas should also be collected. Therefore, a climate change awareness survey from stakeholders was conducted. They are 23 experts in the fields of environment, land use, health and forestry, etc., recommended by the KMC.

A climate change awareness survey from women was also conducted, aiming to identify the impact of climate change on residents living there. In developing countries, the gender problem needs to be considered, and the damage caused by climate change can be more vulnerable to women and children [31,32]. The survey collected opinions from 40 women on the most serious climate-related problems in the city and the adaptation measures that the residents think are most needed. They are people of various occupations, including transportation, sales, self-employed, housewives, and students, and were conducted on-site surveys led by the KMC. We obtained their perspectives on the impact of climate change, as well as ideas on how to reduce this impact.

3. Results

3.1. Survey-Based Approach Assessment with Experts

The top 10 among the 57 risk factors of the seven indicators were analyzed. When all risk factors are compared, ‘Lack of drinking water resources due to drought’ is considered to be an exceptional risk factor (Table 3). When comparing DWR01 and WR01, the probability of DWR01 occurrence was lower than that of WR01, but its impact on the city was significant. This indicates that the lack of water is a serious problem; securing drinking water is the top priority of the climate change adaptation plan in Kurunegala city (Figure 1). The risk factors in TOP 10 are in DWR, WR, and HIH; therefore, we can observe that severe drought, water scarcity, and heat stress are the largest concerns for water and heat experts and policymakers of Kurunegala City (Table 3, Figure 2).

Figure 2. Top 10 risk factors.

Table 3. Rank of risk factors.

Moreover, its impact is of high concern to local experts in Kurunegala. Sri Lanka has been experiencing an ongoing drought since the beginning of 2016. In recent months, approximately one million people across the country have been affected by the drought [18]. Kurunegala city was specifically noted as the most damaged of the nine provincial Sri Lankan capital cities by drought between 1974 and 2017 [33]. Through interviews with residents, it was understood that as many as three to four months of severe drought each year have occurred in recent years.

As mentioned before, there is no indicator of drinking water resources in Korea. These differences relate to the basic management of drinking water and the securing of water resources. In addition to drought, there are also problems with water supply facilities and water treatment in developing countries (Table 4, Figure 3).

Figure 3. Risk to DWR (drinking water resources).

Table 4. Rank of DWR (drinking water resources) risk factors.

In the “Water resources” category, “Lack of water for building maintenance and management” and “Decrease in national water supply capacity due to rainfall pattern change” are high-effect factors, which indicates that Kurunegala city infrastructure requires the maintenance and local leaders to consider climate change as a high risk. In contrast, “Loss of fisheries because of the increase in harmful organisms (i.e., red tides and jellyfish) due to the increase in average water temperature” and “Fluctuations in spawning habitat and season of fish, mollusks, and crustaceans due to the increase in water temperature” are low-effect indicators because Kurunegala is an inland region (Table 5, Figure 4).

Figure 4. Risk of WR (water resources risk/vulnerability).

Table 5. Rank of WR (water resources risk/vulnerability) risk factors.

3.2. Climate Change Awareness Survey

The purpose of the climate change awareness survey was to understand the actual damage and impact of climate change that stakeholders and residents actually feel. To analyze the general population’s climate change awareness, two surveys were conducted. (1) The “Stakeholder survey”, was conducted to determine the views of general residents in Kurunegala. (2) The “Climate change awareness survey for women”, was aimed at investigating differences in perceptions of climate change by women.

3.2.1. Climate Change Awareness Survey: Stakeholders

The Climate Change Awareness Survey was taken by 23 stakeholders who are all public workers in Kurunegala.

In terms of water, most respondents (44.9%) chose “Lack of drinking water” as the most serious climate change risk while “lack of living water” was the second (22.5%). This result shows that many respondents have a significant concern for the scarcity of drinking water. In contrast, the level of awareness among those who responded to the flooding and evacuation survey was relatively low (0%) (Figure 5, top).

Figure 5. Most affected climate change risks in terms of water (top) and heat (bottom) as assessed by stakeholders.

Most respondents (41.9%) selected “Increasing risk of tropical diseases” as the most serious climate change risk associated with heat, followed by “Withered agricultural crop” (29.4%). However, as many of the respondents belong to the health department of KMC, they may have a particular interest in tropical diseases (Figure 5, bottom).

In terms of climate change measures for water, most respondents are concerned with the water supply, with “Supplying drinking water” (42.3%), “Supplying living water” (16.1%), and “Supplying agricultural water” (16.1%) as their three most critical concerns. People in Kurunegala city also ask for increased attention to “Sewage treatment” (16.1%) while there are few demands for the “Installation of flood shelters” (0%) and “Supplying groundwater” (0.7%) (Figure 6, top).

Figure 6. Most desirable climate change measures for the water (top) and heat (bottom) sectors as assessed by stakeholders.

More than half of the respondents chose “Greening the city” (45.4%) as the most desirable measure for addressing the heat issue, followed by “Greening buildings” (19.3%). This result shows that Kurunegala citizens want to have more green areas in their city (Figure 6, bottom).

3.2.2. Climate Change Awareness Survey: Women

We also analyzed climate change awareness from the female perspective. The “climate change awareness survey for women” was taken by 40 females in Kurunegala, aged 16–75.

Three main questions were utilized to analyze climate change awareness among women in Kurunegala city. The first question asked about the “level of climate change influence”, where 62.5% of the respondents considered the climate change category as a high risk for their lives (“Very high”: 37.5%, “High”: 25%). Meanwhile, climate change is currently considered a huge risk; 72.5% of the respondents are concerned about climate change in the near future (Question 2, “Very high”: 35%, “High”: 37.5%). Moreover, most of the respondents identify the impacts of climate change as a severe risk to their society in Kurunegala. Almost half of the respondents, 47.5%, believe that the impacts of climate change are a “Very high” risk and 25% agreed that it is a “High” risk (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Women’s awareness of local climate change impacts.

Similar to our stakeholder survey, most of the women selected “Lack of drinking water” (35.8%) as the most serious climate change risk, followed by “Lack of living water” (20.8%). In terms of heat, most women selected “Withered agricultural crop” (30%) as the most serious climate change risk while “Increasing risk of tropical diseases” (28.3%) (Figure 8) was their second most important concern.

Figure 8. Most important climate change risks with respect to water (top) and heat (bottom) sectors as assessed by the women respondents.

The women surveyed viewed the water management policy priorities to be “Supplying drinking water” (33.8%), “Supplying living water” (20.8%), and “Supplying agricultural water” (15%). Women in Kurunegala also saw “Sewage treatment” (11.3%), “Installation of flood shelters” (6.3%), and “Supplying ground water” (5%) as important. Their responses to flood and underground water measures show that women have more realistic responses than the stakeholders (Figure 9, top).

Figure 9. The most desirable climate change measures with respect to the water (top) and heat (bottom) sectors as assessed by the women respondents.

Regarding heat, a large number of women (37.5%) chose “Greening the city” as the most desirable measure, followed by “Greening buildings” (18.8%) and “Free public water installations” (17.9%). In addition, “Increasing public health capacity” and “installation of heat shelters” have approval ratings of over 10% from the women respondents. This result shows that the women in Kurunegala city want to have more green areas in their city and public facilities to provide both water and heat protection (Figure 9, bottom).

4. Discussion

The biggest limitation to implementing this risk assessment related to water and heat waves in Kurunegala city was the lack of quantitative data on their current status. This type of data is critically important for identifying the effects of climate change and establishing measures against it. These data are necessary for developing the ability to collect, organize, and interpret varied information that can identify and predict climate change.

There were several other limitations to conducting the risk assessment for Kurunegala city. The local government is aware of the problem; however, they are not aware of the processes required to analyze the situation and determine specific solutions. It is important to grasp the current problem and to accurately identify and analyze the current situation through both political and scientific methods.

Adapting to climate change is not something that one department can solve; it requires the recognition and cooperation of related departments and stakeholders as it requires joint work in various sectors of the ministry. Therefore, various stakeholders need to be aware of climate change and promote capacity building.

The process of listening to and gathering the opinions of residents is necessary for planning and establishing policies to protect what is considered vulnerable. When collecting opinions from stakeholders or women, it is necessary to gather opinions from as many diverse groups as possible. In this study, field surveys and stakeholder meetings were conducted to verify risks and establish adaptive measures based on the climate change risk assessment results. We engaged different stakeholders so that we could incorporate different opinions from water and heat experts, technical experts, and policymakers, as well as relevant authorities. As a result of our risk assessment of climate change, and the ongoing discussions through various stakeholder meetings, the most urgent issue appears to be securing drinking water during drought periods. In 2019, the drought period lasted from June to August, but there was a rise in the ambient temperature beginning in April. In 2018, the dry period lasted only two months. The duration of hot, dry weather appears to extend each year.

The principal issue in water availability is that there is no reliable water source. The Deduru Oya reservoir had been utilized all of these years to provide paddy irrigation but the irrigation department built a weir in Deduru Oya to provide additional water for agricultural purposes. During the dry periods, the KMC and other related organizations have monthly discussions with the District Secretariat to assess the drought situation and the availability and distribution capacity of water sources. They desperately need to establish measures to manage water shortages during these increasing dry periods.

The other serious water availability issue is the high percentage of non-revenue water (NRW) consumption [34]. On a three-year average (2014–2016), the NRW is approximately 50% in Kurunegala [35]. The primary reason for the loss of NRW is frequent leaks within the aged pipe distribution network and defective domestic meters. As there is no digitized system for data collection and data storage at the KMC, it is necessary to formally design databases for continuous data collection and dissemination of information. The amount of bulk water bought from the Water Supply and Drainage Board, which categorizes (e.g., household, commercial) how the water units are being utilized, needs to be digitized. The distribution of wells, groundwater wells, and common bathing wells need to be mapped and monitored for whether they are in use or not during droughts and during normal capacity and use. Based on the data collected through an updated and modernized digitized system, it will be possible to determine which area has a leak and perform pipe network maintenance for that area.

Rainwater can be used to secure drinking water in the short term. Using the right efficiency membrane, drinking water can be secured in the current extreme situation. Water can be secured through large storage facilities in government facilities, such as city hall and school buildings, among others, or small storage containers in each household [36]. In the long term, better sustainable urban planning is needed in Kurunegala, such as the types now practiced at a global scale. The growing threat of climate change and environmental degradation has led to actions worldwide that have created resilient communities based on the principle of Natural Based Solution [37,38,39]. By applying new technologies, grey infrastructures are slowly being transformed to perform ecosystem services, aside from their conventional functions. Recent trends in urban design and planning involve the concept of water circulation cities, which involve the efficient utilization of all water resources by promoting natural water circulation and water reuse within the city area. For this to work, it is necessary to prepare proper water circulation measures in the city in advance.

Despite the fact that there are constant and increasing complaints of heat stress and related discomfort, this has not been fully or formally documented in Kurunegala. There are no factual reports connecting heat stress to health problems. We found that there is a slight increase in the incidence of dengue fever; however, no mortality statistics have been reported. There are several organizations involved with heat stress, but individual responsibilities are unclear. It is necessary to do physical and quantitative research on heat waves [40,41]. Based on the quantitative research, it needs to define the impact and damage status of heat stress and design databases for continuous data collection and dissemination of information to manage this factor. Due to the lack of a current database, it is necessary to manage the problem first, and then establish action plans for reducing the impact. In the short term, the installation of green and shade curtains in areas where damage is severe can reduce the damage from heat waves. Appropriate green-oriented landscape management mitigates the effects of heat waves [42,43]. Measures that can be formulated need to be implemented immediately.

Especially in the case of water shortage, the actual impact on residents can be substantial. As international climate-related funds have risen recently, it is also necessary to take advantage of them immediately to implement urgent policies and plans. Developing countries will need mid- to long-term support, rather than fragmentary and short-term support.

5. Conclusions

This study covered the process of risk assessment in Kurunegala city and its results. Risk assessment is an important component of the urban planning process to improve resilience against climate change. Among the various methods of climate change risk assessment, a survey-based assessment approach was conducted in line with the current status of Kurunegala city.

The climate change risk assessment was carried out through various stages. The major problems were determined to be water and heat waves after discussions with key stakeholders. Various impact indicators that could have a significant impact on water and heat waves were drawn up with KMC experts and stakeholders. Based on the water and heat wave indicators, two surveys were conducted with experts, stakeholders, residents, and local women to prioritize the risks that should be addressed. The climate change awareness survey is important in establishing plans for adaptation to climate change. This can help identify the experiences of local residents and what they actually need. The residents of Kurunegala city are highly concerned about climate change; however, most lack an awareness of water resources and health issues, including heat waves and tropical diseases.

As a result of the climate change risk assessment of experts and awareness survey of stakeholders and women, the major overall problem was determined to be the lack of drinking water. Water scarcity due to prolonged drought, which may be exacerbated by anthropological interventions, is also not properly documented. The problem of a lack of drinking water was found to be more serious due to the effects of severe drought caused by climate change, as well as a lack of water resource and water leak management. The impact of the heat wave is also understood to be significant. Residents have experienced heat stress in their communities, but there is no published information related to heat stress health hazards. No records are available from the Medical Officer of Health indicating the relationship between heat stress and health, such that it was not possible to fully understand the current situation. The climate change risk assessment results show that action plans are urgently needed to solve problems caused by the lack of drinking water and heat waves. Several adaptation measures are suggested: recirculating city water, rainwater utilization, effective use of existing water resources, including a reduced NRW rate, response to heat stress, data establishment for identifying and managing the impact of heat stress, and the installation of green and shade curtains.

These climate change risk outcomes play an important role in the development of climate change adaptation action plans. It is also important that the information being delivered to general residents about climate change and its associated risks is correct and clear. Policymakers in Kurunegala city should select and implement these policies in full consideration of the current situation, so the city will gradually grow into a climate-resilient city.

Funding

This study was conducted by the Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change (KACCC) at the Korea Environment Institute (KEI) as part of the “Sri Lanka, Technical support for climate smart cities (2018-115)” project. This project is a pro-bono Technical Assistance project of the Climate Technology Centre Network (CTCN), entitled “Developments of an urban adaptation plan for Kurunegala.” This project was funded by the Korea Ministry of Science and ICT, “Sri Lanka: Technical support for climate smart cities” (grant number NRF-2018M1A2A2080813).

Conflicts of Interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.

Appendix A. Risk Factors for Each Indicator for Survey-Based Approach Assessment and Experts Survey Result

Table A1. DWR risk factors and assessment result of Kurunegala.

Table A2. WM risk factors and assessment result of Kurunegala.

Table A3. WQA risk factors and assessment result of Kurunegala.

Table A4. WR risk factors and assessment result of Kurunegala.

Table A5. SDF risk factors and assessment result of Kurunegala.

Table A6. HF risk factors and assessment result of Kurunegala.

Table A7. HIH risk factors and assessment result of Kurunegala.

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CBCSL in Sri Lanka appealed to the government to grant relief to the poor.

 

The island.lk/2023/08/30

The Catholic Bishops’ Conference (CBCSL) in Sri Lanka yesterday appealed to the government to grant relief to the poor. CBCSL in a statement signed by its President Rt. Rev. Dr. Harold Anthony Perera and Secretary Rt. Rev. Dr. J.D. Anthony Jayakody said that many people were on the brink of starvation while there seemd to be no clear vision to resolve the immediate basic needs of the people.

Text of the CBCSL statement:  

The Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Sri Lanka gathered in Plenary Session in August wishes to express its deep concern about the socio-economic and political situation of Sri Lanka and its impact upon the day-to-day lives of the ordinary masses, for, there is the ever increasing and unbearable cost of living affecting them.

Many parents find it difficult to provide their children with their daily food. Many families with difficulty have only one meal a day. Many hospitals are not in a position to care for people’s health needs and there is a severe shortage of medicines. We are seriously concerned about the increasing number of qualified medical personnel who are leaving the country and many people, particularly the poor, who cannot attend to their medical needs, as often, government hospitals are inadequately supplied with medicines and other medical equipment.

Education, too, appears to be in jeopardy. Children attend schools without proper nourishment, clothing and the stationery they require. Parents are not in a position to attend to these basic needs.

🔴 Many parents find it difficult to provide their children with their daily food. Many families with difficulty have only one meal a day. 

There is a serious break-down of law and order. Increasing violence seems to be prevailing in the country. Murders are taking place almost on a daily basis and the number of fatal accidents on the roads due to drunken and reckless driving are on the increase.

Besides, there seems to be no clear vision to resolve the immediate basic needs of the people. There is no control of prices of essential items. Many people are on the brink of starvation. The immediate need should be to promote agriculture and other local production to sustain the people. It is shocking to hear that still many food items are being imported, including rice, eggs, palm oil. etc., which can be produced locally, if incentives are given to local farmers.

In this dire situation, we, the members of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Sri Lanka, earnestly appeal to those in authority to consider the plight of the people seriously before their rhetoric and enacting political dramas, so that the poor and the marginalized could at least sustain their lives with their basic needs.

Sri Lanka is a blessed country and its citizenry talented, and its youth, educated and keen to be participants in its progress. Therefore, we need to create a society where each one’s dignity is valued and appreciated, and peace, harmony and the true manifestation of democracy such  as the independence of the Judiciary and the participation of people in the political life of the nation is safeguarded through the holding of free and fair elections. We appeal to our political leadership to be the instruments of such a political and social renewal and the safeguarding of the dignity and rights of all components of our society.

We call upon all our Catholic faithful to pray and work actively for a social transformation of our society in this manner.

மன்னார் முசலிப் பிரதேசத்தில் காணி அபகரிப்பு- ரிச்சார்ட் பதியுகுதீன்

முன்னாள் அமைச்சர்
 ரிசாட் பதியுதீன்

``முசலிப் பிரதேசத்தில் 85 வீதமான காணிகள் வனஜீவராசிகள் மற்றும் வன பரிபாலனத் திணைக்களங்களால் கையகப்படுத்தப்பட்டிருக்கின்றன``.

Confusion over Sri Lanka granting permission to Chinese survey vessel in October

 

HT By Shishir Gupta, New Delhi Aug 29, 2023 

Sri Lanka asked China to revise arrival of the ship and the permission to dock may be given after President Wickremesinghe visits China in October.

Confusion prevails in Sri Lanka over granting permission to Chinese Research vessel Shi Yan 6 to conduct ocean survey off the island nation in October after New Delhi raised its serious concerns with the Ranil Wickremesinghe government. The ship is as of now slated to arrive on October 25 and said to conduct joint ocean surveys with Sri Lankan government agency NARA for the next 17 days after docking at Colombo and Hambantota ports.

File photo of Chinese ballistic missile tracking ship Yuan Wang 5 at Hambantota port in August 2022.

While newspaper Sri Lanka Mirror reported that its defence ministry had given clearance to the Chinese ship for docking at the two Sri Lankan ports, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson has been quoted in news agencies saying that the request from the Chinese Embassy was being processed and no decision had been taken.

India has officially raised concerns to Sri Lanka for allowing a free run to Chinese survey, surveillance and ballistic missile trackers ships at its Colombo and Hambantota deep sea ports. During President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s visit to India in July, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked the leader to ensure that India’s strategic and security concerns are addressed by the Island nation in the Indian Ocean.

Although there are multiple voices within Colombo on granting permission to the ship, it is understood that President Wickremesinghe will take a decision after he attends the Belt-Road-Initiative summit in Beijing in the second half of October. With Sri Lanka deep in Chinese debt, it is quite evident that Colombo cannot afford to annoy President Xi Jinping with Hambantota port already given on 99 year lease to China by none other than Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister during the infamous Rajapaksa regime.

Sri Lanka is currently being economically propped up by IMF loans and the Paris club of creditor nations as its economy is in doldrums and not expected to recover this decade with high inflation and poor dollar-Sri Lankan rupee exchange rate. It was none other than the Modi government that came to aid Sri Lanka after the 2021 economic and political crisis by offering some USD 4 billion as aid including food, oil and aviation fuel.

As India has made its concerns known after China mapping the Indian Ocean bed for future submarine activity and charting out new sea routes to African coast via south Indian Ocean, it is learnt that Sri Lanka has asked China to revise the schedule of Shi Yan 6 and push back the date of arrival to November 2023.

However, much as Sri Lanka appears to address India’s security concerns vis-à-vis Chinese surveillance vessel, it is quite evident that Xi Jinping regime will have its way with the Island nation as Colombo has piled up huge BRI debt in building white elephant airports and ports by Chinese company using high-interest loans from Chinese EXIM banks.

Margins of the BRICS Summit

 

The BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) has become attractive due to the American extremism represented in imposing embargoes and trade, economic and financial “sanctions” on a group of countries, starting with North Korea and Cuba and then expanding to Iran, Venezuela, China, Russia, Syria and others, and on everyone who deals with These countries use dollars or make financial transfers through American banks or have branches in the United States and its colonies, and this American “extremism”, especially since 2001, has led to the “rebellion” of some regimes under American influence. About forty countries have applied to belong to the “BRICS” group. Therefore, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his contentment by declaring, at the conclusion of the fifteenth BRICS summit on August 24, 2023 in the South African capital, Johannesburg, that "all goals have been achieved."set by China...It is a historic moment, and a new beginning for cooperation between developing countries, as the group expanded, for the first time since 2010 (the year of entry into South Africa), with the entry of new members, especially the oil-producing countries that will sell oil in currencies other than the dollar, and thus the disengagement takes place. With the petrodollar, by establishing alternative payment systems, in light of the US trade embargo against China, Russia and Iran, however, the entry of the three Arab countries, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, will increase the internal imbalance of the group that was composed of commodity-producing countries, while these Arab countries do not produce The three are nothing but raw commodities and its economy remains rent-seeking, and the Chinese president has the right to rejoice because the new members (Argentina, Egypt, Abyssinia, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Iran, as of January 1, 2023) are important to China and its projects such as the “Belt and Road” and to provide fuel (despite the rejection of Algeria’s membership because it did not Achieve a consensus, becauseIndia's objection), especially after it was able to supervise the reconciliation between the two rival oil systems (Saudi Arabia and Iran) and for non-dollar exchange, and it is also important to Russia, to a second degree, as it is a large producer of crude oil, and Russia is trying to benefit from expanding the exchange network in local currencies, that is, without dollars. And China and India had signed contracts with Russia and with oil countries to buy fuel in local currencies, and those contracts may be the beginning of a new phase that might put an end, in the medium term, to the dominance of the dollar, which enabled the United States to impose its laws and regulations and militarize international relations, to protect its interests by force. , so that “a quarter of the global economy is subject to sanctions and the threat of the possibility of using sanctions against any country at any time, so all developing countries are threatened, and they are looking for alternatives to the dollar and the Swift system for financial transfers,” and the Chinese president stressed the needFinding ways to secure investments, joint economic projects and trade exchange, away from the control of the United States, the dollar and the euro, and the willingness of NATO countries and their allies to use all means in order to continue their military, financial and media hegemony...According to the “Financial Times” newspaper (August 24, 2023), China had preceded the US ban by establishing a platform for exchange and clearing, with the aim of dispensing with the “Swift” system in the medium term, and the volume of transactions through this platform increased, since the imposition of US and European sanctions on Russia. Thus, China - thanks to the strength of its economy and thanks to advance planning - will be the first beneficiary of expanding the field of non-dollar trade, because this would increase the share of the Chinese currency (the yuan) as an international reserve currency alongside the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound sterling and the Swiss franc, for example. Argentina (the new member of the BRICS group) paid the International Monetary Fund, during the month of July 2023, an installment in yuan worth $2.7 billion from a loan that the previous government had obtained as part of the huge rescue plan, at a value of $57 billion.

🔘 Previous attempts to reform the international system have failed because they aim to reform the capitalist system from within, with the same rules of capitalism, and the aspirations of BRICS members are limited to finding a place for it in the system of capitalist globalization and not to change it or create an alternative to it or launch the process of “disengagement” from the capitalist system.

Since the end of World War II, and especially since the collapse of the Soviet competitor in 1991, the United States imposed an unjust regime that enabled it to organize numerous coups and aggressions in South America, Africa and Asia, spy on competitors and even allies, and try to quell any liberal spirit, blur differences and denounce demands. legitimate states and peoples, including broad segments of the American people, and used excessive military and financial force, and turned competitors and adversaries into enemies, and therefore the reputation of the United States became bad, and is associated with military dictatorships all over the world, which explains China's (relative) success in attracting countries From different continents, by promoting slogans such as "for a multipolar world" as an alternative to the unipolar one dominated by the United States, even if China's project is capitalist and exploitative, but it calls for trade and economic cooperation between countries whose economic system differs.And the political, which seems positive at first glance, but carries the risks of explosion faced by the Non-Aligned Movement, the Group of Seventy-seven, or the Group of Fifteen...

The natural development of the capitalist economy leads to the stage of monopoly, the control of financial capital, and the expansion of international markets, which are characteristics of imperialism. Burdened with debts, in addition to the entry of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, all of which are located on the “Belt and Road” path, and from the same region surrounding the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, the Horn, the Suez Canal, and the Gulf overlooking the Indian Ocean, which the United States is working to use (with the Pacific Ocean) to strangle trade Maritime China, and thus China prepares ways to resist the American blockade attempts.  

China is trying to distance itself from the suspicion of the new dominant state, and to appear in the image of the country that seeks to build a system of cooperation and mutual benefit or assistance from which all partners benefit. The sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies against any regime it considers hostile to it, or any government that is not subject to American instructions...

The BRICS group could become an economic force if it had a common plan or goals, or some political or ideological homogeneity, as the share of the group of seven richest countries in the world is about 32% of the total global output, while the total output of the BRICS countries is estimated, after the accession of the six members grandparents erase 36,6% of global output, and the volume of gross domestic product of BRICS members exceeds that of the G7 countries (the 7 most powerful countries), and the size of the total economic power may be one of the factors tipping the balance of power, despite the huge US and NATO military power and despite the dominance of the “American alliance” The international financial institutions, and the strengthening of the "BRICS" group with new members, may be a step towards building a "multi-polar world" (unclear, so far), and towards changing the rules of relations between states, and Russia had expressed "assistance to the poor African countries." , by sending quantities of wheat for free, and establishing credits without interest rates for countries in difficulty, contrary to what the World Bank practices,” according to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech recorded on a video tape, specially for the BRICS summit, and translated into several languages, Including Arabic...

The BRICS group aims to "transition towards a multipolar world" or towards a "new multilateral international economic order" that would put an end, in the long term, to the dominance of the United States and the US dollar in international transactions, by creating a future common currency to facilitate trade between countries members, and it is a loose program with unclear features and objectives, and it does not require breaking with the alliances established by the United States, and this ambiguity may be one of the reasons for attracting “developing” countries or those seeking greater strategic independence. Some of them are governed by agents of American imperialism) and its intention to belong to the BRICS group, including Algeria, which was previously active in the struggle for a new international economic order that was embodied in the speech of President Houari Boumediene in April 1974, and it was the first speech in Arabic at the United Nations, but the international scene has changed since thatThen, especially since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the content of the anti-imperialist struggle that was contained in the concept of the "Third World" or the Non-Aligned Movement disappeared, to give way to the term "Global South" or "developing countries", as Algeria was one of the founding members of the Group of 15, in Belgrade (the capital of the former Yugoslavia) in 1989, along with Brazil, Mexico, India, Venezuela and other countries. This gathering was aimed at creating a force that could balance the Group of Seven, but the Group of 15 disappeared during the first decade of the twenty-first century.

The BRICS Group established the New Development Bank (NBD), headquartered in Shanghai, as a financial instrument in the service of the "new multipolar world". This bank, whose founders aspire to be an alternative to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, welcomed the annexation of the UAE during the fall of 2021 and Egypt in 2023.

Previous attempts to reform the international system have failed because they aim to reform the capitalist system from within, with the same rules of capitalism, and the aspirations of BRICS members are limited to finding a place for it in the system of capitalist globalization and not to change it or create an alternative to it or launch the process of “disengagement” from the capitalist system. The dollar, and the BRICS group carries contradictions within it, as it does not constitute a homogeneous bloc or with common denominators or a solid common base, with the exception of an attempt to bypass the international system that has been dominated by the United States for nearly eight decades. Rather, there are deep and historical differences between some of the founding members, such as China. And India, or among the new entrants such as Egypt and Abyssinia, regarding the shares of the Nile water, and the entry of countries ruled by political regimes puppet to the United States such as Egypt and the Gulf states undermines the seriousness, efficiency and credibility of the BRICS group, which has not shown interest (until now) in issues of unequal development and exchange...

The most important of all is the adoption of productive development plans that change the lives of the exploited and oppressed people and groups for the better. The BRICS data showed no interest in development and investment in the productive sectors (agriculture, industry, and the conversion of raw materials into manufactured materials) and in scientific research, education, health, and technology. An interest in eradicating poverty (and poverty is born of class inequality) or in improving the living conditions of the people and toilers who produce the wealth that others monopolize... -

Most of the data was contained in a cable by Agence France-Presse (AFP) and two analyzes by "Bloomberg" and "Reuters" Commentary, Financial Times, August 24-25, 2023.