NPP’s unexpected two-thirds victory leaves battered opposition struggling to regroup

NPP’s unexpected two-thirds victory leaves battered opposition struggling to regroup

• President Dissanayake to address newly elected MPs next week; plans visits to India and China in coming weeks
• Phenomenal support for NPP in Jaffna
• SJB drops from 54 to 40 seats
• UNP faces a tough task in taking the party to the grassroots

 

By Our Political Editor (Sunday Times)

For the first time in Sri Lanka’s political history, a single party went beyond a two-thirds vote at Thursday’s parliamentary elections.

“We did not expect this much,” an overjoyed National People’s Power General Secretary, Dr Nihal Abeysinghe, told the Sunday Times. “In my remarks last week, I kept it to a reasonable margin, around 120 seats,” he said, referring to his comments in these columns. People have imposed even greater confidence in us as our sweeping victory shows, he pointed out.

NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, however, told election rallies he hoped for a two-thirds majority. Even he did not expect this overwhelming result, a colleague said. The President expressed the view to his colleagues that there should be a strong, principled government that will meet the aspirations of the people. 

He alluded to the two-thirds majority enjoyed by the Mahinda Rajapaksa government in 2010. Five years thereafter, they lost the election. Similarly, in 2020, Gotabaya Rajapaksa received two-thirds of the vote. Just two and half years later, their strength dissipated, and he had to go home. A strong power base does not mean the heads that fill Parliament. If that was so, we would have had such governments in 2010 and 2020. What is needed is a strong government that will meet the aspirations of the people. He said the new government should reciprocate the trust placed by the vast number of voters.

He won the presidential election of September 21 with 42% or 5,740,179 votes. It was from a voter turnout of 79% and thus raised criticism from the opposition of being a ‘minority president.’ At Thursday’s parliamentary elections, with a lower voter turnout of 68.93%, the NPP polled 6.8 million votes, clearly an endorsement of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s leadership. It is clear, despite the low turnout, those backing fragmented opposition parties have also voted NPP.

A comparison between the presidential and parliamentary elections revealed an interesting trend. Support for the NPP appears unprecedented historically. In marked contrast, it was just the opposite with the Samagi Jana Balawegaya led by Sajith Premadasa and the New Democratic Front (DNF) led by Ranil Wickremesinghe. The voter swings are reflected in most electoral districts. An example: in the Moneragala polling division, the NPP increased its votes by 63% from 37.9% during the presidential election. Similarly, in Ambalangoda, votes for the NPP increased from 53% in the presidential election to 70% in Thursday’s elections. The NPP won the electoral divisions of Jaffna, Point Pedro and Nallur. Another factor weighing in heavily in favour of the historic NPP victory is the lack of public interest in the elections. That led to many backing opposition parties from keeping away from polling stations. It also had the opposite effect on NPP supporters. The new Parliament will have more than 21 female MPs.

Natonal-level preferential vote record breaker Vijitha Herath casting his ballots at a Gampaha school in Thursday's general elections

Records tumble

There were also other records that tumbled. Voting in Jaffna showed a phenomenal spike in the NPP’s popularity. From a mere 7% during the presidential election, it shot up to 25%. This development is historically significant. Two NPP stalwarts were being congratulated for their efforts by the party hierarchy. The duo are one-time Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna parliamentarian Bimal Ratnayake and Ramalingam Chandrasekaran, former JVP activist from the plantation sector. The duo had taken up residence in Jaffna and carried out the NPP campaign. President Dissanayake drove to Jaffna to address meetings and did not take a helicopter offered to him saying his mission was party work. Internecine rivalries amongst traditional Tamil political parties have also helped in their efforts.

An upset in the results was the defeat of Abraham Sumanthiran, deputy leader of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), and a front-runner in Tamil politics in recent years. In marked contrast, the SJB, the closest rival to the NPP, recorded a severe decline in its performance from 33% (during the presidential election) to a mere 5%. At the last parliamentary elections, the NPP received only 853 votes in the Jaffna polling division. One of the steps the NPP adopted this time was to set up a permanent party office. It won the district with 80,830 votes. Ratnayake, who is now being tipped for a ministerial position, held regular press briefings and reached out to local professionals and trade union activists. He was very vocal about the conduct of Tamil politicians at meetings he addressed. The youth presence at these meetings was noteworthy.

Another record was broken by Minister Vijitha Herath who polled the highest number of preferential votes of 716,715 from the Gampaha district. Whilst this is a record high, Prime Minister Harini Amerasuriya, received 659,289 preferential votes from the Colombo District. She shattered the record set in the 2020 parliamentary elections by onetime president Mahinda Rajapaksa. He polled 527,364 preference votes, breaking the record set by President Ranil Wickremesinghe who won 500,566 preference votes in the 2015 parliamentary elections. Others who won with a record number of preferences were Nalinda Indatissa (Kalutara district) 371,640, Namal Karunaratne (Kurunegala district), 356,969 and K.D. Lalkantha (Kandy district) 316,915 preference votes.

It was the ITAK and the All-Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) that gained from the losses suffered by the SJB. SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem secured his seat from the Kandy district with a marginal increase in his preferential vote but his colleague from the SJB, Abdul Haleem, lost Hakeem won marginally by 103 votes over Chamindrani Kiriella who received 30,780 votes. The SJB which had garnered 44% of the votes in the Wanni during the presidential election saw it drop to 8%. In Digamadulla (Ampara), the SJB which had won 47% of the votes dropped to 9%. In Ratnapura, the SJB gained 23 points—an increase from 39% to 62%. The number of seats held by the SJB in Parliament also dropped to 40. In the last Parliament, it had 54 MPs.

Despite the NPP’s gains, there are other noteworthy factors that had to be reckoned with. It gained 61 percent of the 17.1 million votes, some 30% have not cast their votes at Thursday’s parliamentary election. This amounts to 5.3 million of the votes. In the Colombo district, more than half a million voters did not vote whilst in the Kalutara district the number was more than 350,000. There was an evident lack of interest in the election and the opposition parties were also cash-strapped for their campaigns. Other than that, there were indications yesterday that SJB leader Sajith Premadasa may face a challenge to his leadership. This is because his leadership has gone through a presidential election and two parliamentary elections with no success. Party insiders have been speaking about a person making decisions on behalf of the party and the leader.

A major controversy with this person broke out on Friday night outside the D.S. Senananayke Maha Vidyalaya counting centre in Borella. Senior SJBers allege that one of their candidates had asked for a recount of preferential votes after it was felt that he was trailing behind by a small number of votes. This was from a candidate from his own grouping, Another from the same party had objected. The outsider is alleged to have asked the person raising objections to withdraw his claim saying they were on the instructions of the leader. This, it transpired later, was not the correct position. The outsider had promised that he would be made the main candidate at a local poll and even considered for Mayoralty. He, however, had not agreed and a group had ensured that the outsider left the area. This was after they raised loud cries.

Beyond the countrywide euphoria over the NPP’s record victory, the nation faces a very serious challenge too. The country must be run with untested amateurs and a competency deficit. Both these factors have surfaced in some areas after the presidential election. As against this, it is highly creditable that there have been minimal complaints of abuse of state property. It is also creditable that the NPP did not use ethnic or religious slogans to polarize the country, something that is a new phenomenon.

On the night of the elections, SJB leader Premadasa turned up at party headquarters in Kotte (near the turn-off to Mission Road) to give a pep talk to volunteers who had gathered to monitor the counting centres through telephones. They had been assigned to different districts. Among those who had gathered were SJB General Secretary Ranjit Madduma Bandara, onetime minister Dullas Allahapperuma and Eran Wickremeratne. When the pep talk was over, Premadasa withdrew saying he wanted to rest and return the next day. As the night grew, the group that were making phone calls were receiving reports that the goings on at the counting centres were not very encouraging. Some withdrew from the counting centres.  Premadasa did not return to the office as assured.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake speaking to an election official while casting 

his ballot at Thursday's general elections

For the first time, Premadasa lost the Colombo Central polling division to the National People’s Power. Also lost was another traditional stronghold – Colombo North. There, the NPP garnered 33,285 votes or 56.55% of the 64,890 votes cast. The SJB received only 18,883 votes. The NPP polled 39,160 or 51.47 % of the 83,617 votes polled in Colombo Central. The SJB received 27,347 votes or 35.94%. The NPP also won the Colombo district for the first time polling 788,636 votes while the SJB polled only 208,249. The margin here was 580,387. One-time Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne lost the Kalutara electoral district by a margin of just over 130 preferential votes to Rohitha Abeygunawardena (NDF).

It is only natural that the opposition parties will be under a microscope over their lapses and failures. A snap election, no doubt, caught them by surprise and in a state of unpreparedness. The victory was almost entirely due to the popularity of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The 2020 parliamentary elections came almost a year after Gotabaya Rajapaksa was elected to office as President. Hence, the opposition parties had time to prepare,

The NPP’s remarkable victory has raised serious questions about the future of major political parties in Sri Lankan politics. More so with the United National Party (UNP), one of the oldest that had led governments over the years. For a few years now, the party’s grassroots-level organisations have been in tatters with little or no strong presence at the district level. This is a vacuum that was filled by the NPP with an extensive organizational network. For those discerning enough, this was evident for several months before the presidential election. Housewives were mustered in large numbers for political rallies. A broad network from the villages to the party’s headquarters in Pelawatte in Battaramulla was established. The question that arises is whether the UNP machinery at the grassroots level could be effectively established before another parliamentary election, possibly in the next five years.

The answer seems to be negative since a battered party, with no funds even for an election campaign, would not have the capacity to build from the village level again.

Where are the funds and how do they rope in supporters? Ironic enough, the party’s name has been revived in the new Parliament by the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) leader, Arumugam Thondaman. He won the Nuwara Eliya district on the UNP ticket and will remain the only MP of the grand old party in the new Parliament. It is not only the UNP that has had its grassroots-level organisations wrecked, but also the SJB. For it too, building a strong party network in the countryside becomes inevitable. Thus, both for the UNP and the SJB the task is uphill, for the National People’s Power has an infrastructure which is expanding further by placing greater control through its MPs. The opinion at the mid-level on both sides—the UNP and the SJB—is an inevitable peace plan where they could merge under an entirely new leadership. However, as one senior UNP member pointed out, “It is easier for us to build bridges with the NPP than getting together with the SJB.” Another asked, “Who will bell the cat surpassing all the odds that are against?”

Battered SLPP

Another party that had a bad beating is the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the party founded by Basil Rajapaksa and led by his brother and twice president, Mahinda Rajapaksa. During the last stages of the election campaign, its All-Island Organiser, Namal Rajapaksa, was forced to make from election platforms a pathetic plea to voters—at least give us a vote on grounds of sympathy or apita anukampa karala chandayakwath denna. The party won two seats and received a national list slot to make their representation in Parliament to three. Thus, young Rajapaksa who is first on the national list of the SLPP will be an MP in this Parliament.

Woes for the SLPP began just ahead of the presidential election when the party chose to field its own candidate. It was earlier expected that former president, Ranil Wickremesinghe would be the candidate albeit the common candidate of a cluster of opposition parties. When it did not materialise, some of the SLPP cabinet of ministers chose not to contest the parliamentary election. That included those against whom there were accusations of bribery and corruption. The other ministers who contested and lost their seats were Kanchana Wijesekera (Matara district), Ramesh Pathirana (Galle district), Nimal Siripala de Silva (Badulla district), Susil Premjayantha (Colombo district), Pavithra Wanniaratchchi (Ratnapura district), Harin Fernando (Badulla district), Manusha Nanayakkara (Galle district), Mano Ganesan (Colombo district), Hirunika Premachandra (Colombo district) and Vidura Wickremanayake (Colombo district).

 

Some SLPP, UNP and opposition party stalwarts also suffered losses. They included Nipuna Ranawaka (Matara district), Sashindra Rajapaksa (Moneragala district), Ajith Rajapaksa (Matara district), Pramitha Bandara (Matale district), Sanjeeva Edirimanne (Kaalutara district), Rohana Dissanayake (Matale district), Dilum Amunugama (Kandy district), Roshan Ranasinghe (Anuradhapura district), Sarath Weerasekera (Colombo district), Duminda Dissanayake (Anuradhapura), Ranjith Siyambalapitiya (Kegalle district), Tharaka Balasuriya (Kegalle district), Johnston Fernando (Kurunegala district), Anura Priyadarshana Yapa (Kurunegala district), Shantha Bandara (Kurunegala district), T.B. Herath (Kurunegala district), Nimal Lanza (Gampaha district), Sagala Ratnayake (Colombo district), Anurudhika Fernando (Gampaha district), Ranjan Ramanayake (Gampaha district), Ruwan Wijewardene (Gampaha district), Udaya Gammanpila (Colombo district) and Dilith Jayaweera (Gampaha district).

A former minister and leader of the Eelam People’s Democratic Front (EPDP), Douglas Devananda, lost his seat in the north. Other losers in the north were Dharmalingam Siddharthan and Selvarajah Gajendran. In the east, Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan, better known by his nom-de guerre Pillayan, also lost.

Thirteen political parties now have representation in Parliament after Thursday’s elections. They are the National People’s Power (141 seats with 18 national list slots) 159 seats, Samagi Jana Balavegaya  SJB- (35 seats with 5 national list slots) 40 seats, Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi  ITAK (7 seats with one national list slot) 8 seats, New Democratic Front (NDF) (3 seats with 2 national list slots) 5 seats, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) (2 seats with one national list slot) 3 seats, Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) (2 seats with 1 national list slot) 3 seats, Sarvajana Balaya (SB) 1 seat, United National Party (UNP) 1 seat, Democratic Tamil National Alliance (DTNA) 1 seat, All Ceylon Tamil Congress 1 seat, All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) 1 seat, Jaffna-Independent Group 17 (Ind 17-10) 1 seat and Sri Lanka Labour Party (SLLP) 1 seat.

The exit of many seasoned parliamentarians and the induction of mostly new faces make clear that opposition to the NPP government will be one outside Parliament. However, in the light of their being fragmented, such a collective is not likely in the immediate future. It may perhaps hinge on the emergence of a political issue to unite them.

President to address new MPs

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has his work cut out for the coming week. He is due to swear in a cabinet of ministers, address a meeting of the government parliamentary group and set in motion the priorities for his government. The new parliamentarians have been asked to come to Colombo and he is due to address them. Retired Major General Aruna Jayasekra is to be sworn in as the Minister of State for Defence. A one-time officer of the Gemunu Watch, he was the convenor of the NPP-backed retired military officer’s collective. Harshana Nanayakkara, a lawyer, is likely to be the new Speaker of Parliament.

Now that his party has won a two-thirds majority, the choice before President Dissanayake is whether to work towards a new Constitution or introduce amendments or first enforce amendments. The latter is to initially enforce an NPP pledge to withdraw all privileges enjoyed by former presidents. This will not only entail amendments to the constitution but also the rescinding of relevant legislation. Either way, the setting up of a Constituent Assembly or a similar body for drafting a constitution is under consideration. A pledge for a new constitution is to be reiterated by President Dissanayake when he makes his government’s first policy statement on Thursday.

Though he repeatedly gave indications of possible arrests of suspects in the stalled cases, now under investigation again, it did not materialise. Police teams including those from the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) are expected to make such arrests in the coming weeks in respect of some controversial cases which were allegedly shelved by previous administrations.

On the external front, President Dissanayake has told his confidants that one of his priorities would be a visit to India. It is expected to take place either in the first or the second week of December. An invitation from Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, to visit India was handed over to him. This was when India’s External Affairs Minister, Subramaniam Jaishanker, visited Colombo shortly after the presidential election. Thereafter, he has said, that he planned to visit China for which he has also received an invitation from President Xi Jinping. This was handed over by the Chinese Ambassador, Qi Zhenhong.

With a historic number of seats for his party, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake now has the mandate to fulfil the pledges he made to the public on key issues. They now wait for him to carry out the task. For the opposition parties, it is time to look at their debacles or failures during both the presidential and parliamentary elections.⍐