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| US-Chinese defense chiefs meet for first time in 18 months while Filipino leader keeps rhetorical heat on China at Singapore talk shop |
MANILA – Rising tensions between China and US allies in Asia set the tone for this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a defense talk shop that brought together defense officials and policy experts from across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
In his highly anticipated keynote speech, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr pulled no punches by slamming Beijing’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
In a barely veiled criticism of the Asian superpower, the Filipino leader highlighted its “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions [which] continue to violate our sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction” in the hotly disputed waters.
More broadly, Marcos Jr warned of the “permanent fact” of China’s aim to achieve “determining influence over the security situation and the economic evolution of this region.”
Faced with criticism at home and overseas for his hard pivot back to Western allies after six years of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s pro-China foreign policy, Marcos Jr underscored the “stabilizing presence of the United States [as] crucial to regional peace.”
Nevertheless, the Filipino leader made it clear that, similar to other Southeast Asian states, he is not fully aligning with one superpower against another since “[i]t’s never a choice” and “[b]oth countries are important” for regional peace and prosperity.
Recognizing the dire consequences of an untrammeled New Cold War, the two superpowers also initiated vital conversations on the sidelines of the mega-event.
During his meeting with China’s newly-installed defense minister, Dong Jun, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held what the US characterized as “firm but professional” conversations on a wide range of issues including disagreements over Beijing’s nuclear, space, and cyber development policies, actions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits, and alleged “lethal aid” to Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
This marked the first meeting of its kind between US and Chinese defense chiefs in 18 months, raising hopes of restoring guardrails in their bilateral military relations. The two chiefs agreed to reopen hotlines in a move that will help keep tensions from spiraling into confrontation in Asia.
This year’s Shangri-La Dialogue couldn’t have been more timely. It came hot on the heels of China’s massive drills around Taiwan shortly after the self-ruling island nation inaugurated its new president, Lai Ching-te.
Although the new Taiwanese leader has emphasized his commitment to maintaining a stable status quo, Beijing has stepped up its intimidation tactics by expanding its missile deployment close to and expanding aerial patrols across from the Taiwan Strait in demonstrating its growing ability to conduct a complex, multidirectional invasion of the self-governing island China sees as a renegade province.
“If China stops its provocation and intimidation, then peace and stability can be maintained,” Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo told reporters following China’s latest drills, painting the Asian superpower as the main cause of trouble in the region.
Meanwhile, China has also upped the ante in the South China Sea against the Philippines, a US mutual defense treaty ally. Chinese maritime forces have clashed with Filipino patrol and resupply vessels close to the Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal on at least five occasions in recent months, leading to the injury of several Filipino servicemen and major damage to multiple Philippine vessels.
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During his question and answer with media at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Marcos Jr made it clear that the death of a Filipino coast guard or naval servicemen would cross a “red line.” “If a Filipino citizen was killed by a willful act, that is very close to what we define as an act of war. We would have crossed the Rubicon. Is that a red line? Almost certainly.”
On multiple occasions, the Biden administration has signaled its “ironclad support” for the Philippines and, accordingly, said that the 1951 US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty would apply in the event of an armed attack on Philippine public vessels and troops in the South China Sea, raising the prospect of great power conflict over the disputed land features.
A deep source of concern is the dearth of institutionalized dialogue between the two superpowers just as risks of armed confrontation have increased in recent months. Following then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, China suspended various communications channels with the US as a form of diplomatic retaliation.
Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden met on two occasions in November 2022 and also on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit (APEC) in San Francisco last year, where they agreed to re-establish guardrails in bilateral relations.
In particular, the Pentagon has pushed for setting up a communications channel between the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) chief in Hawaii and his Chinese counterpart overseeing operations in the Western Pacific including over Taiwan, Japan and the South China Sea.
Last month, the US and Chinese defense chiefs held talks over the phone to set the tone for their in-person meeting in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue.
“The [US Secretary] expressed concern about recent provocative [People’s Liberation Army] activity around the Taiwan Strait and he reiterated that [China] should not use Taiwan’s political transition – part of a normal, routine democratic process – as a pretext for coercive measures,” US Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder Ryder said in a statement following the 75-minute meeting between Austin and Dong.
After meeting Austin in Singapore, Dong said the “stabilization” of military-to-military relations “does not come by easily and shall be cherished dearly,” Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian, told reporters after the meeting, adding that Dong stressed that neither side should “contain or smear” the other side, but rather build mutual trust.
Dong also said that when it comes to areas surrounding China, especially the South China Sea, commercial ships and aircraft “can always operate safely,” but that “there is a huge difference between freedom and willfulness, between navigation and trespassing.”
“It is important to respect others’ security concerns, and security should be mutually respected. No one can pursue one’s security at the expense of another country’s security,” Dong said, according to the ministry spokesperson.
For the Philippines, Marcos Jr’s keynote speech, the first-ever by a Filipino leader, marked a major diplomatic victory. It provided Manila a major platform to rally international support as well as increase pressure on Southeast Asian neighbors to address rising tensions in the South China Sea.
Singapore served as a perfect venue for Marcos Jr to highlight ASEAN’s shortcomings in exercising agency and leadership in shaping regional affairs as well as underscore his country’s defensive approach to ongoing disputes.
He underscored the inviolability of the Philippines’ sovereign rights and “strategic agency” while highlighting China’s aggressive actions, including its recently passed law against “trespassing” in Beijing-claimed waters across the South China Sea basin.
“We have defined our territory and maritime zones in a manner befitting a responsible and law-abiding member of the international community,” the Filipino leader emphasized, pushing back against China’s narrative that the Philippines is the source of trouble.
“As President, I have sworn to this solemn commitment from the very first day that I took office [to defend our sovereign rights]. I do not intend to yield. Filipinos do not yield,” he added, warning China that its current course of action spells a lose-lose situation for the whole region.⍐
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