அரசியல் பிரச்சாரத்தின் ஆதாரக் கோட்பாடு

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அரசியல் பிரச்சாரத்தின் ஆதாரக் கோட்பாடு.

'' நீதி, மதம், அரசியல், சமுதாயம் சம்பந்தமான எல்லாவித சொல்லடுக்குகளுக்கும் பிரகடனங்களுக்கும் வாக்குறுதிகளுக்கும் பின்னே ஏதாவதொரு வர்க்கத்தின் நலன்கள் ஒழிந்து நிற்பதைக் கண்டுகொள்ள மக்கள் தெரிந்துகொள்ளாத வரையில் அரசியலில் அவர்கள் முட்டாள்தனமான ஏமாளிகளாகவும் தம்மைத் தாமே ஏமாற்றிக்கொள்வோராகவும் இருந்தனர், எப்போதும் இருப்பார்கள். பழைய ஏற்பாடு ஒவ்வொன்றும் எவ்வளவுதான் காட்டு மிராண்டித் தனமாகவும் அழுகிப் போனதாகவும் தோன்றிய போதிலும் ஏதாவது ஒரு ஆளும்வர்க்கத்தின் சக்தியைக் கொண்டு அது நிலைநிறுத்தப்பட்டு வருகிறது. சீர்திருத்தங்கள், அபிவிருத்திகள் ஆகியவற்றின் ஆதரவாளர்கள் இதை உணராத வரையில் பழைய அமைப்பு முறையின் பாதுகாவலர்கள் அவர்களை என்றென்றும் முட்டாளாக்கிக் கொண்டே இருப்பார்கள். இந்த வர்க்கங்களின் எதிர்ப்பைத் தகர்த்து ஒழிப்பதற்கு ஒரே ஒரு வழிதான் உண்டு. அது என்ன?

பழைமையைத் துடைத்தெறியவும் புதுமையைச் சிருக்ஷ்டிக்கவும் திறன் பெற்றவையும், சமுதாயத்தில் தாங்கள் வகிக்கும் ஸ்தானத்தின் காரணமாக அப்படிச் சிருக்ஷ்டித்துக் தீரவேண்டிய நிர்ப்பந்தத்திலிருக்கிறவையுமான சக்திகளை, நம்மைச் சூழ்ந்துள்ள இதே சமுதாயத்துக்குள்ளேயே நாம் கண்டுபிடித்து, அந்தச் சக்திகளுக்கு ஞானமூட்டிப் போராட்டத்துக்கு ஸ்தாபன ரீதியாகத் திரட்ட வேண்டும். இது ஒன்றேதான் வழி. ''

மாமேதை தோழர் லெனின்
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Wednesday, 20 December 2017

After elections, Nepal back on frontier market investor radar


NEPAL ANALYSIS

CPN (Maoist Centre) chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’
After elections, Nepal back on frontier market investor radar

By GARY KLEIMAN DECEMBER 20, 2017

After disappearing from early emerging-market investor radar screens in the 1990s with a prolonged plunge into civil war and political instability, followed by an epic earthquake and a border closure with traditional ally India two years ago, Nepal is back in view, having just completed local and national elections won handily by the leftist alliance of the nominal Communist and Maoist parties.

According to initial results, the alliance took control of six of seven provinces and 70% of parliament, crushing the Nepali Congress formerly in power and an array of fringe opponents including anarchists and royalists.

Workers abroad in the Middle East and Asia, whose remittances account for one-third of output, did not vote despite court authorization, but likely would have reinforced the pro-left margin, since the
coalition’s campaign focused mainly on infrastructure development and economic modernization rather than revolutionary rhetoric.

Following provisions of the new constitution, no-confidence motions, a staple of the previous system that resulted in endless cabinet and government reshuffles, will not be allowed for two years to offer unaccustomed calm.

Lowland Madhesis, among the country’s poorest citizens, continue to advocate for more rights and support under the charter, but the incoming administration, to be headed again by veteran former
prime minister K P Oli, has vowed to be more inclusive both of ethnic and income groups and neighbors in the subcontinent.

In his 2015 term, Oli signed trade and investment agreements with China, and recently signaled that a stalled hydropower joint venture may go ahead to diversify from historic Indian dominance.

In his victory speech, K P Oli promised ‘never-witnessed private-sector cooperation’ alongside a higher social-spending agenda, as the sleepy Nepal Stock Exchange index stayed flat after the poll
awaiting concrete economic growth and reform breakthroughs

In his victory speech he promised “never-witnessed private-sector cooperation” alongside a higher social-spending agenda, as the sleepy Nepal Stock Exchange index stayed flat after the poll
awaiting concrete economic growth and reform breakthroughs.

Nepal’s Chambers of Commerce and Industry have been dubious in the absence of an “implementation framework” for the socialist economy enshrined in the constitution, amid talk of double taxation at the federal and provincial levels to cover increased social-welfare payments.

Oli and his team plan public-private partnerships for large projects and small business, commodity and tourism promotion without specifying policies, as capital flight may spike while the vacuum lasts, according to critics.

They also worry about an expected rise in domestic borrowing, which has been capped at 5% of gross domestic product annually, and favoritism toward cooperatives associated with ruling-coalition
leaders.

Independent economists argue that the government should focus on better managing earthquake reconstruction after 650,000 homes and more than one-third of output were destroyed, the World

Bank estimated. This month it approved a US$300 million credit to follow on the $200 million approved in the quake’s immediate aftermath, to pick up the pace for the more than 350,000 residences still slated for rebuilding.

Economists urge renegotiation of ventures such as the $2.5 billion dam suspended with the Chinese over contract irregularities on more concessional rather than commercial terms, even though
foreign debt is low compared with other low-income economies, in the view of the International Monetary Fund’s latest Article IV report in March.

The IMF described Nepal as “trapped in a low growth and investment equilibrium,” with GDP expansion averaging 4% the past decade as a regional laggard. Inflation and the fiscal deficit are under control, but state banks and enterprises got almost 2% of GDP in equity support in recent years which should be curbed, the analysis advised. Decentralization under the new constitution could raise budget risks, and without electricity tariff adjustment power supply will stay compromised, it added.

On monetary policy, the Nepalese currency’s peg with the Indian rupee was praised as a “transparent anchor” as demonetization fallout continues to hit local households and firms, but Nepal has been “overly accommodative,” with annual credit growth reaching 30% to spur recent tightening.

The central bank introduced an interest-rate corridor in 2016 to keep medium-term inflation within the 7% target range, and uses repos as a liquidity instrument, with banks experiencing shortages
around the election period. Financial-sector reform was jointly identified as a priority by the IMF and regulatory officials, with plans to modernize prudential standards and enforcement for lending,
securities and insurance.

On the stock exchange, this month the government revived a pledge to divest its 35% ownership and finalized rules for margin trading, but frontier-market investors after decades out of the action will
hold off for at least another few months waiting for clearer weather before mounting a daring expedition.

Source: Asia Times
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