Wednesday 18 September 2024

Hezbollah exploding pager trail runs from Taiwan to Hungary

 Hezbollah exploding pager trail runs from Taiwan to Hungary

Nine killed, 2,750 wounded across Lebanon as Hezbollah pagers explode

 


 

Nine killed, 2,750 wounded across Lebanon as Hezbollah pagers explode

Hezbollah official calls it the group’s ‘biggest security breach’ in nearly a year of cross-border fire with Israel.

At least nine people were killed and about 2,750 were wounded by exploding handheld pagers across Lebanon, the country’s health minister has said.

Firass Abiad said that an eight-year-old girl was among those killed and that more than 200 people are in critical condition after the communication devices exploded on Tuesday, with injuries mostly reported to the face, hands and stomach.

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Lebanon’s Hezbollah blamed Israel for the spree of pager blasts, saying it will get “its fair punishment”, according to a statement released by the Iran-backed group which has been exchanging almost daily cross-border fire with Israel for almost a year.

There was no comment on the blasts from the Israeli military.


Hezbollah said in an earlier statement on Tuesday that two of its fighters and a girl were killed as “pagers belonging to employees of various Hezbollah units and institutions exploded”.

A Hezbollah official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the explosion of the pagers was the “biggest security breach” the group has experienced since October 7, when Israel’s war on Gaza began following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel.

Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was among those injured by the pager explosions on Tuesday, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported.

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told a regular news briefing the United States was not involved in the incidents and did not know who was responsible.

“We are gathering information on this incident,” Miller said. “I can tell you that the US was not involved in it. The US was not aware of this incident in advance.”

Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from Beirut, said it appears the devices were detonated in a coordinated attack, which represented a “major development” in the hostilities between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese group.

“This is a major security breach. Hezbollah’s communication devices have been compromised. We have seen pictures from across Lebanon of men lying on the floor wounded, bleeding. We have seen reports of hospitals asking for blood,” she said.

She said “near-simultaneous explosions” were reported in southern Lebanon, in the east of the country and in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where there was widespread panic.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had called on his fighters a few months ago to stop using smartphones because Israel has the technology to infiltrate those devices, Khodr said.

“So now they’ve resorted to this different communications system using pagers, and it seems they have been penetrated,” she said.

Elijah Magnier, an independent military and political analyst, said Hezbollah relies heavily on pagers to prevent Israel from intercepting its communications, and he speculated that the pagers would have had to have been tampered with before being distributed to Hezbollah members.

“This is not a new system. It has been used in the past … so in this case, there has been involvement of a third party … to allow access …to remotely activate the explosions,” he told Al Jazeera.

“These explosions … are powerful enough to [severely] hit the psychology of Hezbollah.”


Earlier on Tuesday, Israel announced the expansion of its official war aims to include enabling Israelis who have fled areas near the Lebanese border to return to their homes, widening its nearly yearlong fight against Hamas in Gaza to focus on Hezbollah.

The exchanges of fire between the Israeli military and Hamas ally Hezbollah in Lebanon have forced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border to flee their homes.

“The political-security cabinet updated the goals of the war this evening, so that they include the following section: the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement early on Tuesday.

The exchanges of fire between Israeli soldiers and Hezbollah have killed hundreds of people, mostly fighters, in Lebanon and dozens of civilians and soldiers on the Israeli side.

On Monday, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said “military action” was the “only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities”.

Hezbollah claimed a dozen attacks on Israeli positions on Monday and three more on Tuesday.

How did Hezbollah’s pagers explode in Lebanon?

Localised explosions across Lebanon open a new chapter in one of the region’s most established conflicts.

Hundreds of pagers belonging to the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah have simultaneously exploded across Lebanon.

At the time of publishing, at least nine people have been killed and 2,750 wounded, according to security services and the Lebanese health minister.

What’s a pager? Why use them?

Pagers are small communication devices used commonly before mobile phones became widespread.

The devices display a short text message for the user, relayed by telephone through a central operator.

Unlike mobile phones, pagers work on radio waves, the operator sending a message by radio frequency – rather than the internet – unique to the recipient’s device.

It is thought that the basic technology used in pagers as well as their reliance upon physical hardware means they are harder to monitor, making them popular with groups such as Hezbollah where both mobility and security are paramount.

What happened?

The series of explosions began at about 15:30 local time and lasted for around an hour.

Casualty numbers are still being confirmed.

One eight-year-old girl has been confirmed among the dead.

Mohammad Mahdi Ammar, the son of Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar,  has also been reported killed.

Hezbollah confirmed that two of its fighters had been killed.

Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad told Al Jazeera: “About 2,750 people were injured, … more than 200 of them critically” with injuries mostly reported to the face, hands and stomach.

Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was also injured in the explosions.

Who carried out the attack?

Many people, including Hezbollah, are pointing to Israel.

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in a mostly low-level exchange of fire over the Lebanon-Israel border since October 8, the day after Hamas-led attacks on Israel killed 1,139 people, saw about 240 taken captive and set off Israel’s war on Gaza.

Recently, Israeli politicians and media have increasingly talked of military action against Lebanon to drive Hezbollah back from the border to allow for the return of about 60,000 Israelis evacuated right after the attacks began.

“We hold the Israeli enemy fully responsible for this criminal aggression,” Hezbollah said in a statement, adding that Israel “will certainly receive its just punishment for this sinful aggression”.

Despite a similar condemnation from Lebanese Information Minister Ziad Makary, Israel itself – in keeping with previous situations – remains tight-lipped.

Why didn’t similar blasts occur in Gaza?

According to Hamze Attar, a defence analyst based in Luxemburg, “They cannot use the same method in Gaza because Hamas is very cyber-aware compared to Hezbollah.

“They are very capable when it comes to telecommunications,” he said of Hamas, stressing the efforts the group goes to to encrypt communications.

“They don’t use phones or cellphones. They have their own network and internet and communication and don’t need anything above ground,” he said.

How did the pagers explode?

We still don’t know.

Some speculation has focused on the radio network that pagers rely on, suggesting that it may have been hacked, causing the system to emit a signal that triggered a response within the already doctored pagers.

“What I think happened [is that] every Hezbollah [member] who was at a specific level was attacked,” data analyst Ralph Baydoun told Al Jazeera.

He also suggested that Israel would not need to know the names of whoever received the corrupted signal but it could gather valuable intelligence after the detonations.

“If they had the satellites on, … they would know the names and locations of all operatives who were attacked … immediately when [they asked] for help. They would disclose [their] locations,” he speculated.

Other analysts, such as former British army officer and chemical weapons expert Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, suggested that Hezbollah’s pagers may have been tampered with along the supply chain and “wired to explode on command”.

OK, but how could a pager blow up?

If the pager’s lithium battery was triggered to overheat, this would kick-start a process called thermal runaway.

Essentially,  a chemical chain reaction would occur, leading to an increase in temperature and eventually the battery’s violent explosion.

However, triggering that chain reaction within multiple devices that have never been connected to the internet is far from straightforward.

“You have to have a bug in the pager itself [so that] it will overheat as a result of certain circumstances,” Baydoun said, speculating that those circumstances would most likely be a trigger introduced into the pager through doctored code.

SourceAl Jazeera and news agencies

Why Sri Lanka’s disenchanted Tamils are divided this election

Why Sri Lanka’s disenchanted Tamils are divided this election

 The Hindu- September 18, 2024 at 11:17 AM. | 

Disappointment with southern leadership over long-pending demands, and a divided Tamil polity have led them to consider different options

By Meera Srinivasan


Sri Lanka’s northern Tamil voters are torn this presidential election, between a candidate who may win, and one who will certainly lose.

While some are backing one of the frontrunners among the Sinhalese candidates, others have decided to support a Tamil candidate. Every voter knows well that “Tamil common candidate” P Ariyanethiran — fielded jointly by some political and civil society groups based in the island nation’s north and east — cannot win given the numeric reality of Sri Lanka’s electoral map. The Sinhalese majority make up around 75 per cent of the country that was torn apart by bitter ethnic conflict between the two communities.

“After the civil war ended in 2009, our people hoped that even if their political rights were denied, they could live with some security and dignity. Listening to our (Tamil) political leadership, they backed different candidates in past elections. What did we gain?” asks Fr Santhiyogu Marcus, President of the Mannar Citizens’ Committee.

For at least two decades, Tamils had a straightforward choice and delivered a bloc vote — except when the rebel Tamil Tigers enforced a boycott in 2005 — in the presidential elections. They despised the Rajapaksa clan, accused of serious human rights violations during and after the civil war. They emphatically rejected Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2010 and 2015, and Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019. The main Tamil party representing Tamils of the north and east, too, invariably backed the chief challenger of the Rajapaksas in every national election.

Altered landscape

However, this is the first election campaign in 20 years that is not dominated by a Rajapaksa surname. Two years after a people’s uprising evicted Gotabaya Rajapaksa from office in 2022, Sri Lanka’s political terrain looks starkly different. The September 21 election, the first poll since, has three candidates at the fore – incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition politicians Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, one of whom is expected to win.

“Ariyanethiran is not seen as an individual who will win this contest, but as someone who is a symbol of our identity and struggles,” Fr Marcus observes. Many acknowledge his bleak electoral prospects but say they will back him nevertheless, to deliver a “strong message” to the southern political establishment and the international community.

On the other hand, critics of the move term it “political suicide”. Abandoning pragmatic negotiation with the southern leadership would further isolate Tamils and weaken their bargaining power, they contend.

Fifteen years after the civil war ended, after claiming several tens of thousands of civilian lives, Tamils in the north and east are unable to live in peace. Their lands are systematically grabbed by state agencies, their call for truth and justice over alleged war crimes remain, the whereabouts of scores of forcibly missing persons are unknown, a just political solution is elusive, and the war-battered economy has not created decent jobs or livelihoods.

In this context, sections see backing the Tamil candidate as a way of airing their frustration – not just with the national leadership, but also with their own, deeply divided Tamil political leadership. “Tamil leaders are showing us that they cannot be united in this struggle. The parties have split and there are so many splinter groups. They have weakened our position so much,” says K Rajachandran, leader of a Jaffna-based fisheries cooperative. “So, we want to tell our Tamil politicians, even if you can’t stand united, the Tamil people will come together behind this common candidate.”

Fragmented Tamil polity

The northern Tamil polity is in shreds, with prominent leaders taking poll positions ranging from backing a southern candidate, campaigning for the Tamil “common candidate”, to boycotting the polls altogether.

The once-powerful Tamil National Alliance (TNA), led by the prominent Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), has collapsed, with two other constituents breaking away some years ago. Even the ITAK is marred by serious internal divisions, seen in the conflicting positions aired by its members on a daily basis in the run up to the polls. The contradictions within were no secret earlier but have become more pronounced after the passing of senior Tamil leader R Sampanthan in June.

Earlier this month, the ITAK, through its Jaffna legislator MA Sumanthiran, announced its support for presidential aspirant Premadasa. Meanwhile, ITAK legislator Sivagnanam Shritharan is canvassing for Ariyanethiran, and senior leader Mavai Senathirajah continues to give mixed signals.

“Voters are finding it very confusing this election,” notes Rajany Rajeshwary, founder of Vallamai, a Jaffna-based movement for social change. “I fear that our votes will be split, and we will expose our weakness,” she says.

Meanwhile some voters, especially the youth, are disillusioned. “In the south, they tell us ‘think and vote as a Sri Lankan’. How can I do that when their discriminatory actions keep reminding me that I am Tamil?” asks Marynathan Edison, a fisherman and environmentalist in Mannar⍐.

Tuesday 17 September 2024

Not missing the IMF’s ‘woods’

 Not missing the IMF’s ‘woods’

This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publicly said that even though Sri Lanka has achieved considerable economic recovery, the country is not out of the woods yet. The IMF stressed that therefore, it is important to safeguard those hard-won gains.

The Morning 17 Sep 2024

The IMF’s statement comes in a context where the country is getting ready for a crucial Presidential Election. It is crucial not only because it seeks to elect the next Head of the State. It is crucial because this is the first Presidential Election that is going to be held following a plethora of socio-economic changes, mostly for the worse, that sparked a renewed discourse about a system change concerning the country’s politics and governance.

“With respect to the upcoming Presidential Election, this is for the people of Sri Lanka to decide. From the IMF's position, what we see is a programme that has made significant achievements, but that it is important to safeguard these achievements to enable the country to fully emerge from one of its worst crises,” the IMF said.

As the IMF has aptly pointed out, while the people hold the power to decide what the country’s political trajectory would be like during the coming few years, when we look at the bigger picture, there is an economic recovery programme that should not be conflated with politics. The IMF agreement has become a key topic of discussion on Election stages – while some want to abolish it, some propose to amend it. But, some, including President Ranil Wickremesinghe, express confidence that the continued implementation of the IMF programme would benefit the country. He is not wrong. The IMF programme is not only a set of proposals and recommendations. It is also an eye-opener that showed Sri Lanka a number of things that it did wrong, especially when it comes to State revenue, savings, and expenses.

The IMF programme should not be just another political topic that gets distorted, debated, and ignored or highlighted when advantageous. It goes beyond opportunistic politics and day-to-day needs. It is the political authority’s duty to allow it to remain practical and scientific, which it should be if Sri Lanka is to benefit from it. Sri Lanka’s agreement with the IMF may be controversial, especially when it comes to the impacts of the agreement’s implementation on the general public. However, we see the results. While it has added to the people’s day-to-day plight, it has also improved the economy at a higher level.

“With respect to the upcoming Presidential Election, this is for the people of Sri Lanka to decide. From the IMF's position, what we see is a programme that has made significant achievements, but that it is important to safeguard these achievements to enable the country to fully emerge from one of its worst crises,” the IMF said.

That is why we should recognize that the IMF programme is not entirely a monster. However, for it to deliver the intended results and for Sri Lanka to counter its adverse impacts, Sri Lanka should look at it in a scientific and realistic manner. Political labels should not be how we assess whether the IMF programme is beneficial or not.

Sri Lanka must have a sustainable reforms-based agenda built up on the IMF programme. In other words, the country should have a national plan concerning the IMF programme that is not dependent on any particular Government’s needs, agendas, or ideologies.  Sri Lanka's recent economic stabilisation, supported by the IMF, underscores the necessity of a steadfast economic reform agenda. For the country to maintain and build upon this stability, it is crucial that reforms transcend political changes. Consistent adherence to a well-defined economic strategy ensures that policies promoting fiscal discipline, investment attractiveness, and sustainable growth remain intact, regardless of shifting Governments. This commitment not only stabilises the economy but also secures a foundation for future prosperity, benefiting all Sri Lankans and reinforcing their trust in economic governance.

If there are issues or concerns concerning the IMF programme, they should be dealt with not through a political approach, but a scientific one. Instead of trying to amend or revoke the IMF programme out of spite, just to hurt political rivals, the political authority must counter the programme’s flaws, inadequacies, and harmful aspects. Politicians’ ill-advised plans for the IMF programme should not reverse the little progress that the country has achieved⍐.

Economy grows by 4.7% in 2Q, powered by industrial sector

Economy grows by 4.7% in 2Q, powered by industrial sector


Tuesday, 17 September 2024 FT

  • Accounting for 25.5% of economy, industrial activities grew by 10.9%; dominant services sector
  • grows by 2.5% and agriculture by 1.7%
  • DCS cites low inflation and interest rates, lifting import restrictions as reasons for favourable
  • impact on almost all manufacturing activities in 2Q

Sri Lanka’s economy grew by 4.7% year-on-year (YoY) in the second quarter of 2024, continuing the upward momentum seen since September 2023.

However quarter-on-quarter 2Q performance was lower than 5.3% growth achieved in 1Q.

The Department of Census and Statistics (DCS)  said 2Q positive growth was driven by the industry sector accounting for 25.5% of the GDP, growing by a high 10.9% from a low base, whilst the service sector with a share of 55.4% of the GDP expanded by 2.5% and the agriculture accounting for 10% of GDP expanded by 1.7% as against the second quarter of last year.

In addition, taxes less subsidies on products accounting for 9.1% of the GDP grew by 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, announced.

“Sri Lanka experienced lower inflation, declining interest rates and eased import restrictions in the second quarter of 2024,” the DCS said, adding that these factors helped businesses access working capital and raw materials more easily, contributing to economic growth.

It also added that despite heavy rainfall affecting crops like paddy, tea and rubber in 2024, the rain boosted hydroelectric power generation, adding value to the electricity industry.

The DCS also highlighted that rising tourist arrivals in the second quarter helped sustain growth for the fourth consecutive quarter, starting from the third quarter of 2023.

Following is a brief commentary on the sectoral performance;

Agricultural activities

In the second quarter of year 2024, the agriculture activities have recorded an expansion of 1.7% when compared to the 4.2% of growth recorded in the same quarter in the year 2023.

The reported 1.7% growth in the agricultural activities were supported by the expansions in ‘Growing of cereals’ (22.7%), ‘Animal production’ (8.6%), ‘Marine fishing and marine aquaculture’ (7.7%), ‘Growing of fruits’ (3.9 %), ‘Growing of vegetables’ (3.8 %), ‘Fresh water fishing and fresh water aquaculture’ (3.6%), ‘Growing of spices’ (3.0 %), ‘Growing of oleaginous fruits’ (1.4%) and ‘Forestry and logging’ (0.7%).

However, some agricultural activities, namely, ‘Plant propagation’ (23.7%), ‘Growing of rubber’ (18.7%), ‘Growing of tea (8.8%), ‘Growing of other perennial crops’ (4.1%), ‘Growing of coffee, cocoa and other beverages crops (4.0%),‘Agriculture supporting activities’ (3.7%), ‘Growing of sugarcane’ (2.4%) and ‘Growing of rice’ (1.2%) reported contractions in the second quarter of 2024.

Industrial activities

All the Industrial activities together reported a 10.9% growth in the second quarter of 2024compared to the reported 11.7% decline in the second quarter of the previous year.

The ‘Construction industry’ and ‘Mining and quarrying’ industries returned with positive growths of 15.5% and 21.5% respectively in this quarter. Besides, the overall manufacturing  industry grew by 7.0% during the second quarter 2024 with the expansions of most of the manufacturing sub activities, namely, ‘Manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products’(31.6%), ‘Manufacture of chemical products and basic pharmaceutical products’ (24.0
%), ‘Manufacture of wood and wood products’ (21.1%), ‘Manufacture of furniture’ (8.0%), ‘Manufacture of rubber and plastic products’ (7.0%), ‘Manufacture of paper and paper products’(6.8 %), ‘Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and other related products’ (6.6%), ‘Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products’ (5.5 %), ‘Manufacture of food, beverages and tobacco products’ (5.0%) and ‘Other manufacturing and repair and installation of machinery and equipment’ (3.7%). In the meantime, only two manufacturing sub activities, namely ‘Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products’ and ‘Manufacture of machinery and equipment’ reported contractions of 13.4% and 2.5% respectively during the second quarter of 2024. Among other industrial activities, ‘Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply’ and ‘Water collection, treatment and supply’ grew by 21.9% and 4.3% respectively in the second quarter of 2024.

Services activities

Most of the services activities recorded expansions in the second quarter of 2024 and collectively reported a 2.5% growth compared to the reported 0.5% contraction in the second quarter of the previous year.

Among the services activities, ‘Accommodation, food and beverage serving activities’ (21.1%),‘Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding’ (14.1%), ‘IT programing consultancy and related activities’(14.0%),‘Postal and courier services’ (13.3%), ‘Telecommunication’ (6.7%), ‘Financial service activities’(5.7%), ‘Programing and broadcasting activities’ (5.3 %), ‘Real estate activities and ownership of dwelling’ (4.2%), ‘Education’ (2.4%), ‘Professional services’ (2.3%), ‘Transportation of goods and passengers including warehousing’ (1.8%), ‘Wholesale and retail trade’ (0.8 %) and ‘Other personal services’ (0.6%) reported positive growth rates in the secondquarter of 2024. On the contrary, only two services activities declined during this quarter, namely ‘Public administration and defence’ (3.1%) and ‘Human health services’ (2.3%)⍐.

Hezbollah exploding pager trail runs from Taiwan to Hungary

  Hezbollah exploding pager trail runs from Taiwan to Hungary By  Laila Bassam  and  Maya Gebeily  September 18, 2024 Summary 12 killed, 3,0...