அரசியல் பிரச்சாரத்தின் ஆதாரக் கோட்பாடு

========================================================================================================

அரசியல் பிரச்சாரத்தின் ஆதாரக் கோட்பாடு.

'' நீதி, மதம், அரசியல், சமுதாயம் சம்பந்தமான எல்லாவித சொல்லடுக்குகளுக்கும் பிரகடனங்களுக்கும் வாக்குறுதிகளுக்கும் பின்னே ஏதாவதொரு வர்க்கத்தின் நலன்கள் ஒழிந்து நிற்பதைக் கண்டுகொள்ள மக்கள் தெரிந்துகொள்ளாத வரையில் அரசியலில் அவர்கள் முட்டாள்தனமான ஏமாளிகளாகவும் தம்மைத் தாமே ஏமாற்றிக்கொள்வோராகவும் இருந்தனர், எப்போதும் இருப்பார்கள். பழைய ஏற்பாடு ஒவ்வொன்றும் எவ்வளவுதான் காட்டு மிராண்டித் தனமாகவும் அழுகிப் போனதாகவும் தோன்றிய போதிலும் ஏதாவது ஒரு ஆளும்வர்க்கத்தின் சக்தியைக் கொண்டு அது நிலைநிறுத்தப்பட்டு வருகிறது. சீர்திருத்தங்கள், அபிவிருத்திகள் ஆகியவற்றின் ஆதரவாளர்கள் இதை உணராத வரையில் பழைய அமைப்பு முறையின் பாதுகாவலர்கள் அவர்களை என்றென்றும் முட்டாளாக்கிக் கொண்டே இருப்பார்கள். இந்த வர்க்கங்களின் எதிர்ப்பைத் தகர்த்து ஒழிப்பதற்கு ஒரே ஒரு வழிதான் உண்டு. அது என்ன?

பழைமையைத் துடைத்தெறியவும் புதுமையைச் சிருக்ஷ்டிக்கவும் திறன் பெற்றவையும், சமுதாயத்தில் தாங்கள் வகிக்கும் ஸ்தானத்தின் காரணமாக அப்படிச் சிருக்ஷ்டித்துக் தீரவேண்டிய நிர்ப்பந்தத்திலிருக்கிறவையுமான சக்திகளை, நம்மைச் சூழ்ந்துள்ள இதே சமுதாயத்துக்குள்ளேயே நாம் கண்டுபிடித்து, அந்தச் சக்திகளுக்கு ஞானமூட்டிப் போராட்டத்துக்கு ஸ்தாபன ரீதியாகத் திரட்ட வேண்டும். இது ஒன்றேதான் வழி. ''

மாமேதை தோழர் லெனின்
===========================================================================================================================

Thursday, 11 May 2017

In order to stop the Syrian war, country 'will have to be divided'


In order to stop the Syrian war, country 'will have to be divided'
May 5, 2017 Oleg Yegorov, RBTH 

Russian experts believe the introduction of de-escalation zones in Syria will guarantee the dissolution of the country, as there is no other way of stopping the civil war.

The truce in Syria, established thanks to Russia, Turkey, and Iran’s mediation efforts, has been on shaky ground for the past several months. Source: AFP

During talks in Astana on May 3 and 4, Moscow and its partners proposed introducing "de-escalation zones" in Syria which will be monitored by foreign peace-keeping contingents. The truce in Syria, established thanks to Russia, Turkey, and Iran’s mediation efforts, has been on shaky ground for the past several months. For weeks the government forces and the armed opposition have been shelling each other with increasing frequency. The situation escalated further after the chemical attacks in the Idlib Province on April 4, killing 89 people (the government and the opposition blame each other).
In the fourth round of talks in the Kazakh capital, Russia, Turkey, and Iran proposed a completely new regulation plan that foresees the creation of four de-escalation zones, where any use of weapons will be forbidden, the infrastructure will be restored, and conditions will be created for the work of humanitarian organizations. Demarcation lines will be set up on the borders to prevent shelling. The Kremlin explained that the de-escalation zones would also be no-fly zones.

Who's for and against it?

On May 4 in Astana, Russia, Turkey and Iran signed a memorandum to create the de-escalation zones. Representatives of the Bashar al-Assad government expressed their support for the initiative while the opposition delegation opposed it, protesting against Iran's role as guarantor. However, President Vladimir Putin remarked that he had discussed the idea with U.S. President Donald Trump who supported the initiative.

Arab scholar and expert from the Russian International Affairs Council, Sergei Balmasov, believes both the Syrian government and the opposition will not agree to the initiative in practice and will do everything to undermine it. "The idea to create safe zones has been discussed for several years. But the conflict has not been solved and now any agreement, even if it is supported on paper, will be violated," said Balmasov. In his view, the civil war is still at the stage where neither side is prepared to compromise.

Imposing peace from the outside

On the other hand, if pressure from the mediating troika is strong enough, and it’s supported by Washington and the Persian Gulf countries, the external forces will be able to impose their solution on Damascus and the opposition, believes Leonid Isaev, senior professor at the Political Sciences Department at the Higher School of Economics. "The external players agree on this deal, on these rules of the game. The Syrians are not being asked and it’s understandable. The Syrians have not been able to come to an agreement for many years. That is why now they will have to agree to what others are proposing."

The memorandum foresees the possibility of sending foreign contingents to Syria that will guard the demarcation lines. The document does not specify where the contingents will come from. However, Director of the Center for Islamic Studies at the Institute of Innovational Development Kirill Semenov (in an interview with Svobodnaya Pressa) believes that they can be "neutral international players, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Maghreb countries." Semenov says that the measures enforcing a truce must be harsh and that they must be applied not only to the opposition but also to the government forces. Only then is success possible.

Does Syria still exist?

Work to realize the memorandum has only just begun. The Russian delegation says that combat action in the territories indicated in the document will cease on May 6, that the borders of the de-escalation zones still have to be agreed upon, and that some other work also still has to be done. But if the project is implemented, the country will be divided: The government will control certain areas, the opposition others, and between them will be the peacekeepers.

"This will de facto mean a reinforced division of Syria. But actually, Syria has not been united for several years," notes Sergei Balmasov. He adds that neither side of the civil war has any illusions about peaceful co-existence and their participation in the talks in Geneva and Astana is just a façade. Leonid Isaev partially agrees: "Syria as a state exists only on Google Maps, in geography lessons, and on the UN chair nameplate. But de facto the country has collapsed."

At the same time, Isaev says, it’s unlikely that the forces opposing Damascus, whether they are the opposition or the Kurds, are seriously thinking of establishing independent states. This would be too problematic. "These will a priori be failed states. They don't have the resources for independent existence," Isaev says. He believes that this creates the possibility of Syria restoring itself as a state, but at some indefinite point in the distant future.

No comments:

Post a Comment