அரசியல் பிரச்சாரத்தின் ஆதாரக் கோட்பாடு

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அரசியல் பிரச்சாரத்தின் ஆதாரக் கோட்பாடு.

'' நீதி, மதம், அரசியல், சமுதாயம் சம்பந்தமான எல்லாவித சொல்லடுக்குகளுக்கும் பிரகடனங்களுக்கும் வாக்குறுதிகளுக்கும் பின்னே ஏதாவதொரு வர்க்கத்தின் நலன்கள் ஒழிந்து நிற்பதைக் கண்டுகொள்ள மக்கள் தெரிந்துகொள்ளாத வரையில் அரசியலில் அவர்கள் முட்டாள்தனமான ஏமாளிகளாகவும் தம்மைத் தாமே ஏமாற்றிக்கொள்வோராகவும் இருந்தனர், எப்போதும் இருப்பார்கள். பழைய ஏற்பாடு ஒவ்வொன்றும் எவ்வளவுதான் காட்டு மிராண்டித் தனமாகவும் அழுகிப் போனதாகவும் தோன்றிய போதிலும் ஏதாவது ஒரு ஆளும்வர்க்கத்தின் சக்தியைக் கொண்டு அது நிலைநிறுத்தப்பட்டு வருகிறது. சீர்திருத்தங்கள், அபிவிருத்திகள் ஆகியவற்றின் ஆதரவாளர்கள் இதை உணராத வரையில் பழைய அமைப்பு முறையின் பாதுகாவலர்கள் அவர்களை என்றென்றும் முட்டாளாக்கிக் கொண்டே இருப்பார்கள். இந்த வர்க்கங்களின் எதிர்ப்பைத் தகர்த்து ஒழிப்பதற்கு ஒரே ஒரு வழிதான் உண்டு. அது என்ன?

பழைமையைத் துடைத்தெறியவும் புதுமையைச் சிருக்ஷ்டிக்கவும் திறன் பெற்றவையும், சமுதாயத்தில் தாங்கள் வகிக்கும் ஸ்தானத்தின் காரணமாக அப்படிச் சிருக்ஷ்டித்துக் தீரவேண்டிய நிர்ப்பந்தத்திலிருக்கிறவையுமான சக்திகளை, நம்மைச் சூழ்ந்துள்ள இதே சமுதாயத்துக்குள்ளேயே நாம் கண்டுபிடித்து, அந்தச் சக்திகளுக்கு ஞானமூட்டிப் போராட்டத்துக்கு ஸ்தாபன ரீதியாகத் திரட்ட வேண்டும். இது ஒன்றேதான் வழி. ''

மாமேதை தோழர் லெனின்
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Saturday, 24 December 2016

How Russia, Iran and Turkey see the future of post-war Syria


How Russia, Iran and Turkey see the future of post-war Syria
December 22, 2016 Nikolai Litovkin, RBTH 

Russian observers say that the three countries have grown tired of the Syrian conflict and are now preparing to address the problem without waiting for the West and other regional actors.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced that specialists from Russia, Turkey and Iran are working on drafting a joint action plan for Aleppo following a meeting of the three nations’ defense ministers in Moscow on Dec. 20.

The final document of the meeting, the so-called Moscow declaration, will lay out urgent steps to promote a settlement of the civil war in Syria following the recapture of the country’s second largest city by government troops.

Despite their desire to put an end to the Syrian hostilities, each of the three actors has its own vision of how the crisis should be resolved and how a post-conflict Syria should look. It also appears, if Russian analysts are to be believed, that Syria's post-war future will become reality fairly soon.

“The hostilities will continue for about another year, after which the first signs of Syria's future state system will become visible,” Vladimir Yevseyev, a military expert and deputy director of the Moscow-based CIS Institute, told RBTH.

Yevseyev believes there will be a redistribution of political power between the offices of president and prime minister in Syria, making the latter a more influential figure. In addition, some of Syria's regions will gain more rights and autonomy, but the country is more likely to remain a republic than turn into a federation.

Russia's position

Moscow wants the situation in the region to stabilize, and also wishes to limit its involvement in the Syrian conflict, according to Russian experts.

“Russia is calling for elections to be held after the end of the crisis, and for the drafting of a road map to restore Syria,” said Yevseyev. “We will continue to involve [Syrian] settlements into the peace process, and to create corridors for the withdrawal of militants.”

Russian experts say that Moscow's primary objective is not only to achieve security in Syria but also to restore the country economically. On the other hand, Russia does not want to go it alone on this: It expects other nations to share the burden.

However, according to Yevseyev, there is also a certain self-interest in Russia’s ambitions for Syria, with the boosting of Moscow’s military presence in the region another priority.

“We also want to establish a foothold in the eastern portion of the Mediterranean,” he said. “We already have Khmeimim air base in Syria; in the future we will turn our naval supply and maintenance base at Tartus into a full-fledged navy base.”

Turkey's position

During the Moscow talks, Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isik described the operation to take back eastern Aleppo from rebels opposed to Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad as having been “very successful”.

Nevertheless, a number of Russian experts are skeptical as to Turkey's contribution to the Aleppo offensive. Semyon Bagdasarov, director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, said in an interview (in Russian) with the online news publication Vzglyad that pro-Turkish units had actually taken part in the defense of eastern Aleppo, and also that it was the Turkish military that had organized counter-strikes from the direction of Idlib and Homs, and had attempted to breach the government blockade around the city.

Bagdasarov enumerated Turkey's key objectives in the Syrian conflict: overthrowing Assad; setting up a Turkish-controlled quasi-state with its capital in eastern Aleppo; and also destroying the foothold established by the Syrian Kurds.

According to him, Moscow in principle is prepared for the emergence of a Kurdish quasi-state in Syria, but there are fears that such a state would be constantly at war with Damascus, “with all the associated problems that would entail”.

Not all Russian experts agree with this view. Prof. Sergei Druzhilovsky of the Department of Oriental Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations told RBTH that Ankara's position has changed significantly in the past six months, since the failed coup in Turkey, and that the Turkish authorities have even found common ground with Iran, whose views used to be diametrically opposite.

“Al-Assad represents Syria's Alawite ethnic minority, which accounts for about 10 percent of the population, and there are 12 to 15 million Alawites residing on Turkish territory,” said Druzhilovsky. “Domestic conflicts have prompted [Turkish President] Recep Tayyip Erdogan to revise his policy on Syria, as well as on some parts of his own country's Shia population.”

Iran's position

Druzhilovsky believes it is important for Iran that Al-Assad retain his presidency: “Any other president is likely to change Syria's policy on Tehran dramatically,” he said.

Syria's attitude towards Israel is a sensitive issue for Iran, Nikolai Surkov, assistant professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, told RBTH.

“Iran would like Syria to fight Israel, and to provide its territory for supplying arms to Hezbollah,” said Surkov. “Tehran's position is that any figure to replace Al-Assad should be prepared for maximum cooperation with Iran.”

Vladimir Yevseyev, however, does not believe that Iran will have any direct influence on Syria's future policy: “For the time being Iran remains Syria's economic sponsor; it plays but a secondary role militarily,” he said.

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